Amsterdam Institute for Global Health and Development

Environmental exposure to active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) can have negative effects on the health of ecosystems and humans. While numerous studies have monitored APIs in rivers, these employ different analytical methods, measure different APIs, and have ignored many of the countries of the world. This makes it difficult to quantify the scale of the problem from a global perspective. Furthermore, comparison of the existing data, generated for different studies/regions/continents, is challenging due to the vast differences between the analytical methodologies employed. Here, we present a global-scale study of API pollution in 258 of the world's rivers, representing the environmental influence of 471.4 million people across 137 geographic regions. Samples were obtained from 1,052 locations in 104 countries (representing all continents and 36 countries not previously studied for API contamination) and analyzed for 61 APIs. Highest cumulative API concentrations were observed in sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia, and South America. The most contaminated sites were in low- to middle-income countries and were associated with areas with poor wastewater and waste management infrastructure and pharmaceutical manufacturing. The most frequently detected APIs were carbamazepine, metformin, and caffeine (a compound also arising from lifestyle use), which were detected at over half of the sites monitored. Concentrations of at least one API at 25.7% of the sampling sites were greater than concentrations considered safe for aquatic organisms, or which are of concern in terms of selection for antimicrobial resistance. Therefore, pharmaceutical pollution poses a global threat to environmental and human health, as well as to delivery of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.

OBJECTIVE: To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of reported estimates of adverse pregnancy outcomes among untreated women with syphilis and women without syphilis. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane Libraries were searched for literature assessing adverse pregnancy outcomes among untreated women with seroreactivity for Treponema pallidum infection and non-seroreactive women. Adverse pregnancy outcomes were fetal loss or stillbirth, neonatal death, prematurity or low birth weight, clinical evidence of syphilis and infant death. Random-effects meta-analyses were used to calculate pooled estimates of adverse pregnancy outcomes and, where appropriate, heterogeneity was explored in group-specific analyses. FINDINGS: Of the 3258 citations identified, only six, all case-control studies, were included in the analysis. Pooled estimates showed that among untreated pregnant women with syphilis, fetal loss and stillbirth were 21% more frequent, neonatal deaths were 9.3% more frequent and prematurity or low birth weight were 5.8% more frequent than among women without syphilis. Of the infants of mothers with untreated syphilis, 15% had clinical evidence of congenital syphilis. The single study that estimated infant death showed a 10% higher frequency among infants of mothers with syphilis. Substantial heterogeneity was found across studies in the estimates of all adverse outcomes for both women with syphilis (66.5% [95% confidence interval, CI: 58.0-74.1]; I(2) = 91.8%; P < 0.001) and women without syphilis (14.3% [95% CI: 11.8-17.2]; I(2) = 95.9%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Untreated maternal syphilis is associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes. These findings can inform policy decisions on resource allocation for the detection of syphilis and its timely treatment in pregnant women.

BACKGROUND: The life expectancy of people with HIV taking antiretroviral therapy (ART) has increased substantially over the past 25 years. Most previous studies of life expectancy were based on data from the first few years after starting ART, when mortality is highest. However, many people with HIV have been successfully treated with ART for many years, and up-to-date prognosis data are needed. We aimed to estimate life expectancy in adults with HIV on ART for at least 1 year in Europe and North America from 2015 onwards. METHODS: We used data for people with HIV taking ART from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration and the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort Study. Included participants started ART between 1996 and 2014 and had been on ART for at least 1 year by 2015, or started ART between 2015 and 2019 and survived for at least 1 year; all participants were aged at least 16 years at ART initiation. We used Poisson models to estimate the associations between mortality and demographic and clinical characteristics, including CD4 cell count at the start of follow-up. We also estimated the remaining years of life left for people with HIV aged 40 years who were taking ART, and stratified these estimates by variables associated with mortality. These estimates were compared with estimates for years of life remaining in a corresponding multi-country general population. FINDINGS: Among 206 891 people with HIV included, 5780 deaths were recorded since 2015. We estimated that women with HIV at age 40 years had 35·8 years (95% CI 35·2-36·4) of life left if they started ART before 2015, and 39·0 years (38·5-39·5) left if they started ART after 2015. For men with HIV, the corresponding estimates were 34·5 years (33·8-35·2) and 37·0 (36·5-37·6). Women with CD4 counts of fewer than 49 cells per μL at the start of follow-up had an estimated 19·4 years (18·2-20·5) of life left at age 40 years if they started ART before 2015 and 24·9 years (23·9-25·9) left if they started ART after 2015. The corresponding estimates for men were 18·2 years (17·1-19·4) and 23·7 years (22·7-24·8). Women with CD4 counts of at least 500 cells per μL at the start of follow-up had an estimated 40·2 years (39·7-40·6) of life left at age 40 years if they started ART before 2015 and 42·0 years (41·7-42·3) left if they started ART after 2015. The corresponding estimates for men were 38·0 years (37·5-38·5) and 39·2 years (38·7-39·7). INTERPRETATION: For people with HIV on ART and with high CD4 cell counts who survived to 2015 or started ART after 2015, life expectancy was only a few years lower than that in the general population, irrespective of when ART was started. However, for people with low CD4 counts at the start of follow-up, life-expectancy estimates were substantially lower, emphasising the continuing importance of early diagnosis and sustained treatment of HIV. FUNDING: US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism and UK Medical Research Council.

We conducted a systematic review of the Medline database (U.S. National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, U.S.A) to determine if consistent molecular vaginal microbiota (VMB) composition patterns can be discerned after a decade of molecular testing, and to evaluate demographic, behavioral and clinical determinants of VMB compositions. Studies were eligible when published between 1 January 2008 and 15 November 2013, and if at least one molecular technique (sequencing, PCR, DNA fingerprinting, or DNA hybridization) was used to characterize the VMB. Sixty three eligible studies were identified. These studies have now conclusively shown that lactobacilli-dominated VMB are associated with a healthy vaginal micro-environment and that bacterial vaginosis (BV) is best described as a polybacterial dysbiosis. The extent of dysbiosis correlates well with Nugent score and vaginal pH but not with the other Amsel criteria. Lactobacillus crispatus is more beneficial than L. iners. Longitudinal studies have shown that a L. crispatus-dominated VMB is more likely to shift to a L. iners-dominated or mixed lactobacilli VMB than to full dysbiosis. Data on VMB determinants are scarce and inconsistent, but dysbiosis is consistently associated with HIV, human papillomavirus (HPV), and Trichomonas vaginalis infection. In contrast, vaginal colonization with Candida spp. is more common in women with a lactobacilli-dominated VMB than in women with dysbiosis. Cervicovaginal mucosal immune responses to molecular VMB compositions have not yet been properly characterized. Molecular techniques have now become more affordable, and we make a case for incorporating them into larger epidemiological studies to address knowledge gaps in etiology and pathogenesis of dysbiosis, associations of different dysbiotic states with clinical outcomes, and to evaluate interventions aimed at restoring and maintaining a lactobacilli-dominated VMB.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization initiative to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of syphilis aims for ≥ 90% of pregnant women to be tested for syphilis and ≥ 90% to receive treatment by 2015. We calculated global and regional estimates of syphilis in pregnancy and associated adverse outcomes for 2008, as well as antenatal care (ANC) coverage for women with syphilis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Estimates were based upon a health service delivery model. National syphilis seropositivity data from 97 of 193 countries and ANC coverage from 147 countries were obtained from World Health Organization databases. Proportions of adverse outcomes and effectiveness of screening and treatment were from published literature. Regional estimates of ANC syphilis testing and treatment were examined through sensitivity analysis. In 2008, approximately 1.36 million (range: 1.16 to 1.56 million) pregnant women globally were estimated to have probable active syphilis; of these, 80% had attended ANC. Globally, 520,905 (best case: 425,847; worst case: 615,963) adverse outcomes were estimated to be caused by maternal syphilis, including approximately 212,327 (174,938; 249,716) stillbirths (>28 wk) or early fetal deaths (22 to 28 wk), 91,764 (76,141; 107,397) neonatal deaths, 65,267 (56,929; 73,605) preterm or low birth weight infants, and 151,547 (117,848; 185,245) infected newborns. Approximately 66% of adverse outcomes occurred in ANC attendees who were not tested or were not treated for syphilis. In 2008, based on the middle case scenario, clinical services likely averted 26% of all adverse outcomes. Limitations include missing syphilis seropositivity data for many countries in Europe, the Mediterranean, and North America, and use of estimates for the proportion of syphilis that was "probable active," and for testing and treatment coverage. CONCLUSIONS: Syphilis continues to affect large numbers of pregnant women, causing substantial perinatal morbidity and mortality that could be prevented by early testing and treatment. In this analysis, most adverse outcomes occurred among women who attended ANC but were not tested or treated for syphilis, highlighting the need to improve the quality of ANC as well as ANC coverage. In addition, improved ANC data on syphilis testing coverage, positivity, and treatment are needed. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

BACKGROUND: To quantify the association between effects of interventions on carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) progression and their effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. METHODS: We systematically collated data from randomized, controlled trials. cIMT was assessed as the mean value at the common-carotid-artery; if unavailable, the maximum value at the common-carotid-artery or other cIMT measures were used. The primary outcome was a combined CVD end point defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization procedures, or fatal CVD. We estimated intervention effects on cIMT progression and incident CVD for each trial, before relating the 2 using a Bayesian meta-regression approach. RESULTS: We analyzed data of 119 randomized, controlled trials involving 100 667 patients (mean age 62 years, 42% female). Over an average follow-up of 3.7 years, 12 038 patients developed the combined CVD end point. Across all interventions, each 10 μm/y reduction of cIMT progression resulted in a relative risk for CVD of 0.91 (95% Credible Interval, 0.87-0.94), with an additional relative risk for CVD of 0.92 (0.87-0.97) being achieved independent of cIMT progression. Taken together, we estimated that interventions reducing cIMT progression by 10, 20, 30, or 40 μm/y would yield relative risks of 0.84 (0.75-0.93), 0.76 (0.67-0.85), 0.69 (0.59-0.79), or 0.63 (0.52-0.74), respectively. Results were similar when grouping trials by type of intervention, time of conduct, time to ultrasound follow-up, availability of individual-participant data, primary versus secondary prevention trials, type of cIMT measurement, and proportion of female patients. CONCLUSIONS: The extent of intervention effects on cIMT progression predicted the degree of CVD risk reduction. This provides a missing link supporting the usefulness of cIMT progression as a surrogate marker for CVD risk in clinical trials.

Objectives Life expectancy is an important indicator informing decision making in policies relating to HIV ‐infected people. Studies estimating life expectancy after starting combination antiretroviral therapy ( cART ) have noted differences between income regions. The objective of our study was to perform a meta‐analysis to assess life expectancy of HIV ‐positive people after starting cART , and to quantify differences between low/middle‐ and high‐income countries. Methods Eight cohort studies estimating life expectancy in HIV ‐positive people initiating cART aged ≥ 14 years using the abridged life table method were identified. Random effects meta‐analysis was used to pool estimated outcomes, overall and by income region. Heterogeneity between studies was assessed with the I 2 statistic. We estimated additional years of life expected after starting cART at ages 20 and 35 years. Results Overall life expectancy in high‐income countries was an additional 43.3 years [95% confidence interval ( CI ) 42.5–44.2 years] and 32.2 years (95% CI 30.9–33.5 years) at ages 20 and 35 years, respectively, and 28.3 (95% CI 23.3–33.3) and 25.6 (95% CI 22.1–29.2) additional years, respectively, in low/middle‐income countries. In low/middle‐income countries, life expectancy after starting cART at age 20 years was an additional 22.9 years (95% CI 18.4–27.5 years) for men and 33.0 years (95% CI 30.4–35.6 years) for women, but was similar in the two sexes in high‐income countries. In all income regions, life expectancy after starting cART increased over calendar time. Conclusions Our results suggest that the life expectancy of HIV ‐positive people after starting cART has improved over time. Monitoring life expectancy into the future is important to assess how changes to cART guidelines will affect patient long‐term outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of adult mortality in low-income countries but data on the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension are scarce, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This study aims to assess the prevalence of hypertension and determinants of blood pressure in four SSA populations in rural Nigeria and Kenya, and urban Namibia and Tanzania. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed four cross-sectional household surveys in Kwara State, Nigeria; Nandi district, Kenya; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Greater Windhoek, Namibia, between 2009-2011. Representative population-based samples were drawn in Nigeria and Namibia. The Kenya and Tanzania study populations consisted of specific target groups. Within a final sample size of 5,500 households, 9,857 non-pregnant adults were eligible for analysis on hypertension. Of those, 7,568 respondents ≥ 18 years were included. The primary outcome measure was the prevalence of hypertension in each of the populations under study. The age-standardized prevalence of hypertension was 19.3% (95%CI:17.3-21.3) in rural Nigeria, 21.4% (19.8-23.0) in rural Kenya, 23.7% (21.3-26.2) in urban Tanzania, and 38.0% (35.9-40.1) in urban Namibia. In individuals with hypertension, the proportion of grade 2 (≥ 160/100 mmHg) or grade 3 hypertension (≥ 180/110 mmHg) ranged from 29.2% (Namibia) to 43.3% (Nigeria). Control of hypertension ranged from 2.6% in Kenya to 17.8% in Namibia. Obesity prevalence (BMI ≥ 30) ranged from 6.1% (Nigeria) to 17.4% (Tanzania) and together with age and gender, BMI independently predicted blood pressure level in all study populations. Diabetes prevalence ranged from 2.1% (Namibia) to 3.7% (Tanzania). CONCLUSION: Hypertension was the most frequently observed risk factor for CVD in both urban and rural communities in SSA and will contribute to the growing burden of CVD in SSA. Low levels of control of hypertension are alarming. Strengthening of health care systems in SSA to contain the emerging epidemic of CVD is urgently needed.

BACKGROUND: Pretreatment drug resistance in people initiating or re-initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) containing non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) might compromise HIV control in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to assess the scale of this problem and whether it is associated with the intiation or re-initiation of ART in people who have had previous exposure to antiretroviral drugs. METHODS: This study was a systematic review and meta-regression analysis. We assessed regional prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance and risk of pretreatment drug resistance in people initiating ART who reported previous ART exposure. We systematically screened publications and unpublished datasets for pretreatment drug-resistance data in individuals in LMICs initiating or re-initiating first-line ART from LMICs. We searched for studies in PubMed and Embase and conference abstracts and presentations from the Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections, the International AIDS Society Conference, and the International Drug Resistance Workshop for the period Jan 1, 2001, to Dec 31, 2016. To assess the prevalence of drug resistance within a specified region at any specific timepoint, we extracted study level data and pooled prevalence estimates within the region using an empty logistic regression model with a random effect at the study level. We used random effects meta-regression to relate sampling year to prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance within geographical regions. FINDINGS: We identified 358 datasets that contributed data to our analyses, representing 56 044 adults in 63 countries. Prevalence estimates of pretreatment NNRTI resistance in 2016 were 11·0% (7·5-15·9) in southern Africa, 10·1% (5·1-19·4) in eastern Africa, 7·2% (2·9-16·5) in western and central Africa, and 9·4% (6·6-13·2) in Latin America and the Caribbean. There were substantial increases in pretreatment NNRTI resistance per year in all regions. The yearly increases in the odds of pretreatment drug resistance were 23% (95% CI 16-29) in southern Africa, 17% (5-30) in eastern Africa, 17% (6-29) in western and central Africa, 11% (5-18) in Latin America and the Caribbean, and 11% (2-20) in Asia. Estimated increases in the absolute prevalence of pretreatment drug resistance between 2015 and 2016 ranged from 0·3% in Asia to 1·8% in southern Africa. INTERPRETATION: Pretreatment drug resistance is increasing at substantial rate in LMICs, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2016, the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI resistance was near WHO's 10% threshold for changing first-line ART in southern and eastern Africa and Latin America, underscoring the need for routine national HIV drug-resistance surveillance and review of national policies for first-line ART regimen composition. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and World Health Organization.

BACKGROUND: Adherence to combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a key predictor of the success of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment, and is potentially amenable to intervention. Insight into predictors or correlates of non-adherence to ART may help guide targets for the development of adherence-enhancing interventions. Our objective was to review evidence on predictors/correlates of adherence to ART, and to aggregate findings into quantitative estimates of their impact on adherence. METHODS: We searched PubMed for original English-language papers, published between 1996 and June 2014, and the reference lists of all relevant articles found. Studies reporting on predictors/correlates of adherence of adults prescribed ART for chronic HIV infection were included without restriction to adherence assessment method, study design or geographical location. Two researchers independently extracted the data from the same papers. Random effects models with inverse variance weights were used to aggregate findings into pooled effects estimates with 95% confidence intervals. The standardized mean difference (SMD) was used as the common effect size. The impact of study design features (adherence assessment method, study design, and the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) of the country in which the study was set) was investigated using categorical mixed effects meta-regression. RESULTS: In total, 207 studies were included. The following predictors/correlates were most strongly associated with adherence: adherence self-efficacy (SMD = 0.603, P = 0.001), current substance use (SMD = -0.395, P = 0.001), concerns about ART (SMD = -0.388, P = 0.001), beliefs about the necessity/utility of ART (SMD = 0.357, P = 0.001), trust/satisfaction with the HIV care provider (SMD = 0.377, P = 0.001), depressive symptoms (SMD = -0.305, P = 0.001), stigma about HIV (SMD = -0.282, P = 0.001), and social support (SMD = 0.237, P = 0.001). Smaller but significant associations were observed for the following being prescribed a protease inhibitor-containing regimen (SMD = -0.196, P = 0.001), daily dosing frequency (SMD = -0.193, P = 0.001), financial constraints (SMD -0.187, P = 0.001) and pill burden (SMD = -0.124, P = 0.001). Higher trust/satisfaction with the HIV care provider, a lower daily dosing frequency, and fewer depressive symptoms were more strongly related with higher adherence in low and medium HDI countries than in high HDI countries. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that adherence-enhancing interventions should particularly target psychological factors such as self-efficacy and concerns/beliefs about the efficacy and safety of ART. Moreover, these findings suggest that simplification of regimens might have smaller but significant effects.

Adherence to combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) is a key predictor of the success of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment, and is potentially amenable to intervention. Insight into predictors or correlates of non-adherence to ART may help guide targets for the development of adherence-enhancing interventions. Our objective was to review evidence on predictors/correlates of adherence to ART, and to aggregate findings into quantitative estimates of their impact on adherence. We searched PubMed for original English-language papers, published between 1996 and June 2014, and the reference lists of all relevant articles found. Studies reporting on predictors/correlates of adherence of adults prescribed ART for chronic HIV infection were included without restriction to adherence assessment method, study design or geographical location. Two researchers independently extracted the data from the same papers. Random effects models with inverse variance weights were used to aggregate findings into pooled effects estimates with 95% confidence intervals. The standardized mean difference (SMD) was used as the common effect size. The impact of study design features (adherence assessment method, study design, and the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) of the country in which the study was set) was investigated using categorical mixed effects meta-regression. In total, 207 studies were included. The following predictors/correlates were most strongly associated with adherence: adherence self-efficacy (SMD = 0.603, P = 0.001), current substance use (SMD = -0.395, P = 0.001), concerns about ART (SMD = -0.388, P = 0.001), beliefs about the necessity/utility of ART (SMD = 0.357, P = 0.001), trust/satisfaction with the HIV care provider (SMD = 0.377, P = 0.001), depressive symptoms (SMD = -0.305, P = 0.001), stigma about HIV (SMD = -0.282, P = 0.001), and social support (SMD = 0.237, P = 0.001). Smaller but significant associations were observed for the following being prescribed a protease inhibitor-containing regimen (SMD = -0.196, P = 0.001), daily dosing frequency (SMD = -0.193, P = 0.001), financial constraints (SMD -0.187, P = 0.001) and pill burden (SMD = -0.124, P = 0.001). Higher trust/satisfaction with the HIV care provider, a lower daily dosing frequency, and fewer depressive symptoms were more strongly related with higher adherence in low and medium HDI countries than in high HDI countries. These findings suggest that adherence-enhancing interventions should particularly target psychological factors such as self-efficacy and concerns/beliefs about the efficacy and safety of ART. Moreover, these findings suggest that simplification of regimens might have smaller but significant effects.

markdownabstract___Key messages___ &#13;\nThe Commission recommends five priority investments to achieve a tuberculosis-free world within a generation. These investments are designed to fulfil the mandate of the UN High Level Meeting on tuberculosis. In addition, they answer t

BACKGROUND: Although there is evidence for the efficacy of internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy (iCBT), the generalizability of results to routine care is limited. OBJECTIVE: This study systematically reviews effectiveness studies of guided iCBT interventions for the treatment of depression or anxiety. METHODS: The acceptability (uptake, participants' characteristics, adherence, and satisfaction), effectiveness, and negative effects (deterioration) of nonrandomized pre-post designs conducted under routine care conditions were synthesized using systematic review and meta-analytic approaches. RESULTS: A total of 19 studies including 30 groups were included in the analysis. Despite high heterogeneity, individual effect sizes of investigated studies indicate clinically relevant changes, with effect sizes ranging from Hedges' g=0.42-1.88, with a pooled effect of 1.78 for depression and 0.94 for anxiety studies. Uptake, participants' characteristics, adherence, and satisfaction indicate a moderate to high acceptability of the interventions. The average deterioration across studies was 2.9%. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence supporting the acceptability and effectiveness of guided iCBT for the treatment of depression and anxiety in routine care. Given the high heterogeneity between interventions and contexts, health care providers should select interventions that have been proven in randomized controlled clinical trials. The successful application of iCBT may be an effective way of increasing health care in multiple contexts.

BACKGROUND: Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is a promising new rapid diagnostic technology for tuberculosis (TB) that has characteristics that suggest large-scale roll-out. However, because the test is expensive, there are concerns among TB program managers and policy makers regarding its affordability for low- and middle-income settings. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimate the impact of the introduction of Xpert on the costs and cost-effectiveness of TB care using decision analytic modelling, comparing the introduction of Xpert to a base case of smear microscopy and clinical diagnosis in India, South Africa, and Uganda. The introduction of Xpert increases TB case finding in all three settings; from 72%-85% to 95%-99% of the cohort of individuals with suspected TB, compared to the base case. Diagnostic costs (including the costs of testing all individuals with suspected TB) also increase: from US$28-US$49 to US$133-US$146 and US$137-US$151 per TB case detected when Xpert is used "in addition to" and "as a replacement of" smear microscopy, respectively. The incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for using Xpert "in addition to" smear microscopy, compared to the base case, range from US$41-$110 per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Likewise the ICERS for using Xpert "as a replacement of" smear microscopy range from US$52-$138 per DALY averted. These ICERs are below the World Health Organization (WHO) willingness to pay threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that Xpert is a cost-effective method of TB diagnosis, compared to a base case of smear microscopy and clinical diagnosis of smear-negative TB in low- and middle-income settings where, with its ability to substantially increase case finding, it has important potential for improving TB diagnosis and control. The extent of cost-effectiveness gain to TB programmes from deploying Xpert is primarily dependent on current TB diagnostic practices. Further work is required during scale-up to validate these findings.

BACKGROUND: Rotavirus (RV) is the leading cause of diarrhea-related death in children worldwide and 95% of RV-associated deaths occur in Africa and Asia where RV vaccines (RVVs) have lower efficacy. We hypothesize that differences in intestinal microbiome composition correlate with the decreased RVV efficacy observed in poor settings. METHODS: We conducted a nested, case-control study comparing prevaccination, fecal microbiome compositions between 6-week old, matched RVV responders and nonresponders in rural Ghana. These infants' microbiomes were then compared with 154 age-matched, healthy Dutch infants' microbiomes, assumed to be RVV responders. Fecal microbiome analysis was performed in all groups using the Human Intestinal Tract Chip. RESULTS: We analyzed findings in 78 Ghanaian infants, including 39 RVV responder and nonresponder pairs. The overall microbiome composition was significantly different between RVV responders and nonresponders (FDR, 0.12), and Ghanaian responders were more similar to Dutch infants than nonresponders (P = .002). RVV response correlated with an increased abundance of Streptococcus bovis and a decreased abundance of the Bacteroidetes phylum in comparisons between both Ghanaian RVV responders and nonresponders (FDR, 0.008 vs 0.003) and Dutch infants and Ghanaian nonresponders (FDR, 0.002 vs 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: The intestinal microbiome composition correlates significantly with RVV immunogenicity and may contribute to the diminished RVV immunogenicity observed in developing countries.

OBJECTIVE: To assess incidence of uterine rupture in scarred and unscarred uteri and its maternal and fetal complications in a nationwide design. DESIGN: Population-based cohort study. SETTING: All 98 maternity units in The Netherlands. POPULATION: All women delivering in The Netherlands between August 2004 and August 2006 (n = 371,021). METHODS: Women with uterine rupture were prospectively collected using a web-based notification system. Data from all pregnant women in The Netherlands during the study period were obtained from Dutch population-based registers. Results were stratified by uterine scar. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Population-based incidences, severe maternal and neonatal morbidity and mortality, relative and absolute risk estimates. RESULTS: There were 210 cases of uterine rupture (5.9 per 10,000 pregnancies). Of these women, 183 (87.1%) had a uterine scar, incidences being 5.1 and 0.8 per 10,000 in women with and without uterine scar. No maternal deaths and 18 cases of perinatal death (8.7%) occurred. The overall absolute risk of uterine rupture was 1 in 1709. In univariate analysis, women with a prior caesarean, epidural anaesthesia, induction of labour (irrespective of agents used), pre- or post-term pregnancy, overweight, non-Western ethnic background and advanced age had an elevated risk of uterine rupture. The overall relative risk of induction of labour was 3.6 (95% confidence interval 2.7-4.8). CONCLUSION: The population-based incidence of uterine rupture in The Netherlands is comparable with other Western countries. Although much attention is paid to scar rupture associated with uterotonic agents, 13% of ruptures occurred in unscarred uteri and 72% occurred during spontaneous labour.

Abstract High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries 1,2 . However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world 3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health 4,5 . However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Cervicovaginal microbiota not dominated by lactobacilli may facilitate transmission of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), as well as miscarriages, preterm births and sepsis in pregnant women. However, little is known about the exact nature of the microbiological changes that cause these adverse outcomes. In this study, cervical samples of 174 Rwandan female sex workers were analyzed cross-sectionally using a phylogenetic microarray. Furthermore, HIV-1 RNA concentrations were measured in cervicovaginal lavages of 58 HIV-positive women among them. We identified six microbiome clusters, representing a gradient from low semi-quantitative abundance and diversity dominated by Lactobacillus crispatus (cluster R-I, with R denoting 'Rwanda') and L. iners (R-II) to intermediate (R-V) and high abundance and diversity (R-III, R-IV and R-VI) dominated by a mixture of anaerobes, including Gardnerella, Atopobium and Prevotella species. Women in cluster R-I were less likely to have HIV (P=0.03), herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2; P<0.01), and high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV; P<0.01) and had no bacterial STIs (P=0.15). Statistically significant trends in prevalence of viral STIs were found from low prevalence in cluster R-I, to higher prevalence in clusters R-II and R-V, and highest prevalence in clusters R-III/R-IV/R-VI. Furthermore, only 10% of HIV-positive women in clusters R-I/R-II, compared with 40% in cluster R-V, and 42% in clusters R-III/R-IV/R-VI had detectable cervicovaginal HIV-1 RNA (Ptrend=0.03). We conclude that L. crispatus-dominated, and to a lesser extent L. iners-dominated, cervicovaginal microbiota are associated with a lower prevalence of HIV/STIs and a lower likelihood of genital HIV-1 RNA shedding.

BACKGROUND: Identifying modifiable factors that increase women's vulnerability to HIV is a critical step in developing effective female-initiated prevention interventions. The primary objective of this study was to pool individual participant data from prospective longitudinal studies to investigate the association between intravaginal practices and acquisition of HIV infection among women in sub-Saharan Africa. Secondary objectives were to investigate associations between intravaginal practices and disrupted vaginal flora; and between disrupted vaginal flora and HIV acquisition. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a meta-analysis of individual participant data from 13 prospective cohort studies involving 14,874 women, of whom 791 acquired HIV infection during 21,218 woman years of follow-up. Data were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. The level of between-study heterogeneity was low in all analyses (I(2) values 0.0%-16.1%). Intravaginal use of cloth or paper (pooled adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-1.83), insertion of products to dry or tighten the vagina (aHR 1.31, 95% CI 1.00-1.71), and intravaginal cleaning with soap (aHR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01-1.53) remained associated with HIV acquisition after controlling for age, marital status, and number of sex partners in the past 3 months. Intravaginal cleaning with soap was also associated with the development of intermediate vaginal flora and bacterial vaginosis in women with normal vaginal flora at baseline (pooled adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.24, 95% CI 1.04-1.47). Use of cloth or paper was not associated with the development of disrupted vaginal flora. Intermediate vaginal flora and bacterial vaginosis were each associated with HIV acquisition in multivariable models when measured at baseline (aHR 1.54 and 1.69, p<0.001) or at the visit before the estimated date of HIV infection (aHR 1.41 and 1.53, p<0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence to suggest that some intravaginal practices increase the risk of HIV acquisition but a direct causal pathway linking intravaginal cleaning with soap, disruption of vaginal flora, and HIV acquisition has not yet been demonstrated. More consistency in the definition and measurement of specific intravaginal practices is warranted so that the effects of specific intravaginal practices and products can be further elucidated. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the incidence and risk factors for serious non-AIDS-defining events. METHODS: The incidence of non-AIDS events (malignancies, end-stage renal disease, liver failure, pancreatitis, cardiovascular disease), and AIDS after January 1, 2001, was calculated; Poisson regression was used to investigate factors associated with non-AIDS and AIDS. RESULTS: Among 12,844 patients, 1058 were diagnosed with a non-AIDS event [incidence 1.77 per 100 person-years of follow-up; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.66 to 1.87]; 462 patients (43.7%) died. The incidence of AIDS (1025 diagnoses; 339 deaths, 33.1%) was 1.72 per 100 person-years of follow-up (1.61 to 1.83). After adjustment, older age [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.71 per 10 years older, 95% CI: 1.60 to 1.83], diabetes (IRR: 1.49, 95% CI: 1.22 to 1.82) and hypertension (IRR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.43 to 1.87) were associated with non-AIDS events. Compared with patients without an event, there was a 4-fold increased risk of death after an AIDS event (relative hazard: 4.14; 95% CI 3.47 to 4.94) and almost a 7-fold increased risk of death after a non-AIDS event (relative hazard: 6.72; 95% CI: 5.61 to 8.05). CONCLUSIONS: Non-AIDS events were common in the combination antiretroviral therapy era and associated with considerably mortality. Evidence on the impact of modifying immunodeficiency and lifestyle-related factors on the risk of non-AIDS events in HIV-infected persons is an important but unmet research need.