Australian Bureau of Statistics

Genetic assignment methods use genotype likelihoods to draw inference about where individuals were or were not born, potentially allowing direct, real-time estimates of dispersal. We used simulated data sets to test the power and accuracy of Monte Carlo resampling methods in generating statistical thresholds for identifying F0 immigrants in populations with ongoing gene flow, and hence for providing direct, real-time estimates of migration rates. The identification of accurate critical values required that resampling methods preserved the linkage disequilibrium deriving from recent generations of immigrants and reflected the sampling variance present in the data set being analysed. A novel Monte Carlo resampling method taking into account these aspects was proposed and its efficiency was evaluated. Power and error were relatively insensitive to the frequency assumed for missing alleles. Power to identify F0 immigrants was improved by using large sample size (up to about 50 individuals) and by sampling all populations from which migrants may have originated. A combination of plotting genotype likelihoods and calculating mean genotype likelihood ratios (DLR) appeared to be an effective way to predict whether F0 immigrants could be identified for a particular pair of populations using a given set of markers.

The publication The Health and Welfare of Australia’s Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples 1999 is the second edition in this two-yearly series of reports that provide a comprehensive statistical overview of the health and welfare of indigenous people. While the focus of the publication is mainly national, state comparisons have been included where possible.

Abstract Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3–6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.

Abstract Many different techniques have been used to estimate biomass for ecological, agricultural and forestry research. The most suitable technique depends on available budget, accuracy required, structure and composition of the vegetation, and whether species and component biomass are required. A survey of the methods that have been used to estimate biomass is given, and the advantages and disadvantages of direct sampling, calibrated visual estimation and double sampling techniques are discussed. The relative cost and accuracy of each technique are summarized and recommendations are made for the use of the techniques in different vegetation complexes, such as discrete shrubs or trees, patchy vegetation, homogeneous vegetation, and species‐rich inhomogeneous heathland.

An ecosystem approach is widely seen as a desirable goal for fisheries management but there is little consensus on what strategies or measures are needed to achieve it. Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is a tool that has been widely used to develop and test single species fisheries management strategies and is now being extended to support ecosystem based fisheries management (EBFM). We describe the application of MSE to investigate alternative strategies for achieving EBFM goals for a complex multispecies fishery in southeastern Australia. The study was undertaken as part of a stakeholder driven process to review and improve the ecological, economic and social performance of the fishery. An integrated management strategy, involving combinations of measures including quotas, gear controls and spatial management, performed best against a wide range of objectives and this strategy was subsequently adopted in the fishery, leading to marked improvements in performance. Although particular to one fishery, the conclusion that an integrated package of measures outperforms single focus measures we argue is likely to apply widely in fisheries that aim to achieve EBFM goals.

AIMS: Release from prison is a high-risk period for mortality. We examined the impact of opioid substitution therapy (OST), for opioid dependence during and after incarceration, upon mortality post-release. DESIGN: A cohort was formed of all opioid-dependent people who entered OST between 1985 and 2010 and who, following first OST entry, were released from prison at least once between 2000 and 2012. We linked data on OST history, court and prison records and deaths. SETTING: New South Wales (NSW), Australia. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 16,453 people released from prison 60,161 times. MEASUREMENTS: Crude mortality rates (CMRs) were calculated according to OST retention; multivariable Cox regressions for post-release periods were undertaken to examine the association between OST exposure (a time-dependent variable) and mortality post-release, for which covariates were updated per-release. FINDINGS: There were 100,978 person-years (PY) post-release; 1050 deaths occurred. Most received OST while incarcerated (76.5%); individuals were receiving OST in 51% of releases. Lowest post-release mortality was among those continuously retained in OST post-release CMR 4 weeks post-release = 6.4 per 1000 PY; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 5.2, 7.8, highest among those with no OST (CMR = 36.7 per 1000 PY; 95% CI = 28.8, 45.9). Multi-factorial models showed OST exposure in the 4 weeks post-release reduced hazard of death by 75% (adjusted hazard ratio 0.25; 95% CI = 0.12, 0.53); OST receipt in prison had a short-term protective effect that decayed quickly across time. CONCLUSION: In New South Wales, Australia, opioid substitution therapy in prison and post-release appears to reduce mortality risk in the immediate post-release period.

Abstract Effective biodiversity monitoring is critical to evaluate, learn from, and ultimately improve conservation practice. Well conceived, designed and implemented monitoring of biodiversity should: (i) deliver information on trends in key aspects of biodiversity (e.g. population changes); (ii) provide early warning of problems that might otherwise be difficult or expensive to reverse; (iii) generate quantifiable evidence of conservation successes (e.g. species recovery following management) and conservation failures; (iv) highlight ways to make management more effective; and (v) provide information on return on conservation investment. The importance of effective biodiversity monitoring is widely recognized (e.g. Australian Biodiversity Strategy). Yet, while everyone thinks biodiversity monitoring is a good idea, this has not translated into a culture of sound biodiversity monitoring, or widespread use of monitoring data. We identify four barriers to more effective biodiversity monitoring in Australia. These are: (i) many conservation programmes have poorly articulated or vague objectives against which it is difficult to measure progress contributing to design and implementation problems; (ii) the case for long‐term and sustained biodiversity monitoring is often poorly developed and/or articulated; (iii) there is often a lack of appropriate institutional support, co‐ordination, and targeted funding for biodiversity monitoring; and (iv) there is often a lack of appropriate standards to guide monitoring activities and make data available from these programmes. To deal with these issues, we suggest that policy makers, resource managers and scientists better and more explicitly articulate the objectives of biodiversity monitoring and better demonstrate the case for greater investments in biodiversitymonitoring. There is an urgent need for improved institutional support for biodiversity monitoring in Australia, for improved monitoring standards, and for improved archiving of, and access to, monitoring data. We suggest that more strategic financial, institutional and intellectual investments in monitoring will lead to more efficient use of the resources available for biodiversity conservation and ultimately better conservation outcomes.

Factor analytic mixed models for national crop variety testing programs have the potential to improve industry productivity through appropriate modelling and reporting to growers of variety by environment interaction. Crop variety testing programs are conducted in many countries world-wide. Within each program, data are combined across locations and seasons, and analysed in order to provide information to assist growers in choosing the best varieties for their conditions. Despite major advances in the statistical analysis of multi-environment trial data, such methodology has not been adopted within national variety testing programs. The most commonly used approach involves a variance component model that includes variety and environment main effects, and variety by environment ( $$V\times E$$ ) interaction effects. The variety predictions obtained from such an analysis, and subsequently reported to growers, are typically on a long-term regional basis. In Australia, the variance component model has been found to be inadequate in terms of modelling $$V\times E$$ interaction, and the reporting of information at a regional level often masks important local $$V\times E$$ interaction. In contrast, the factor analytic mixed model approach that is widely used in Australian plant breeding programs, has regularly been found to provide a parsimonious and informative model for $$V\times E$$ effects, and accurate predictions. In this paper we develop an approach for the analysis of crop variety evaluation data that is based on a factor analytic mixed model. The information obtained from such an analysis may well be superior, but will only enhance industry productivity if mechanisms exist for successful technology transfer. With this in mind, we offer a suggested reporting format that is user-friendly and contains far greater local information for individual growers than is currently the case.

Although microorganisms coexist in the same environment, it is still unclear how their interaction regulates ecosystem functioning. Using a methanotroph as a model microorganism, we determined how methane oxidation responds to heterotroph diversity. Artificial communities comprising of a methanotroph and increasing heterotroph richness, while holding equal starting cell numbers were assembled. We considered methane oxidation rate as a functional response variable. Our results showed a significant increase of methane oxidation with increasing heterotroph richness, suggesting a complex interaction in the cocultures leading to a stimulation of methanotrophic activity. Therefore, not only is the methanotroph diversity directly correlated to methanotrophic activity for some methanotroph groups as shown before, but also the richness of heterotroph interacting partners is relevant to enhance methane oxidation too. In this unprecedented study, we provide direct evidence showing how heterotroph richness exerts a response in methanotroph-heterotroph interaction, resulting in increased methanotrophic activity. Our study has broad implications in how methanotroph and heterotroph interact to regulate methane oxidation, and is particularly relevant in methane-driven ecosystems.

AIMS: To examine the effects of supply-side drug law enforcement on the dynamics of the Australian heroin market and the harms associated with heroin. SETTING: Around Christmas 2000, heroin users in Sydney and other large capital cities in Australia began reporting sudden and significant reductions in the availability of heroin. The changes, which appear to have been caused at least in part by drug law enforcement, provided a rare opportunity to examine the potential impact of such enforcement on the harm associated with heroin. DESIGN: Data were drawn from a survey of 165 heroin users in South-Western Sydney, Australia; from the Drug Use Monitoring in Australia (DUMA) project; from NSW Health records of heroin overdoses; and from the Computerized Operational Policing System (COPS) database. FINDINGS: Heroin price increased, while purity, consumption and expenditure on the drug decreased as a result of the shortage. The fall in overall heroin use was accompanied by a significant reduction in the rate of overdose in NSW. However, the health benefits associated with the fall in overdose may have been offset by an increase in the use of other drugs (mainly cocaine) since the onset of the heroin shortage. There does not appear to have been any enduring impact on crime rates as a result of the heroin 'drought'. CONCLUSION: Supply control has an important part to play in harm reduction; however, proponents of supply-side drug law enforcement need to be mindful of the unintended adverse consequences that might flow from successfully disrupting the market for a particular illegal drug.

We present spatiotemporal mass balance trends for the Antarctic Ice Sheet from a statistical inversion of satellite altimetry, gravimetry, and elastic‐corrected GPS data for the period 2003–2013. Our method simultaneously determines annual trends in ice dynamics, surface mass balance anomalies, and a time‐invariant solution for glacio‐isostatic adjustment while remaining largely independent of forward models. We establish that over the period 2003–2013, Antarctica has been losing mass at a rate of −84 ± 22 Gt yr −1 , with a sustained negative mean trend of dynamic imbalance of −111 ± 13 Gt yr −1 . West Antarctica is the largest contributor with −112 ± 10 Gt yr −1 , mainly triggered by high thinning rates of glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea Embayment. The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a dramatic increase in mass loss in the last decade, with a mean rate of −28 ± 7 Gt yr −1 and significantly higher values for the most recent years following the destabilization of the Southern Antarctic Peninsula around 2010. The total mass loss is partly compensated by a significant mass gain of 56 ± 18 Gt yr −1 in East Antarctica due to a positive trend of surface mass balance anomalies.

Genetic studies have provided increasing evidence that ceramide homeostasis plays a role in neurodegenerative diseases including Parkinson’s disease (PD). It is known that the relative amounts of different ceramide molecular species, as defined by their fatty acyl chain length, regulate ceramide function in lipid membranes and in signaling pathways. In the present study we used a comprehensive sphingolipidomic case-control approach to determine the effects of PD on ceramide composition in postmortem brain tissue from the anterior cingulate cortex (a region with significant PD pathology) and the occipital cortex (spared in PD), also assessing mRNA expression of the major ceramide synthase genes that regulate ceramide acyl chain composition in the same tissue using quantitative PCR. In PD anterior cingulate cortex but not occipital cortex, total ceramide and sphingomyelin levels were reduced from control levels by 53% (P < 0.001) and 42% (P < 0.001), respectively. Of the 13 ceramide and 15 sphingomyelin molecular lipid species identified and quantified, there was a significant shift in the ceramide acyl chain composition toward shorter acyl chain length in the PD anterior cingulate cortex. This PD-associated change in ceramide acyl chain composition was accompanied by an upregulation of ceramide synthase-1 gene expression, which we consider may represent a response to reduced ceramide levels. These data suggest a significant shift in ceramide function in lipid membranes and signaling pathways occurs in regions with PD pathology. Identifying the regulatory mechanisms precipitating this change may provide novel targets for future therapeutics.

BACKGROUND: The restrictions associated with the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in changes to young children's daily routines and habits. The impact on their participation in movement behaviours (physical activity, sedentary screen time and sleep) is unknown. This international longitudinal study compared young children's movement behaviours before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Parents of children aged 3-5 years, from 14 countries (8 low- and middle-income countries, LMICs) completed surveys to assess changes in movement behaviours and how these changes were associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Surveys were completed in the 12 months up to March 2020 and again between May and June 2020 (at the height of restrictions). Physical activity (PA), sedentary screen time (SST) and sleep were assessed via parent survey. At Time 2, COVID-19 factors including level of restriction, environmental conditions, and parental stress were measured. Compliance with the World Health Organizations (WHO) Global guidelines for PA (180 min/day [≥60 min moderate- vigorous PA]), SST (≤1 h/day) and sleep (10-13 h/day) for children under 5 years of age, was determined. RESULTS: Nine hundred- forty-eight parents completed the survey at both time points. Children from LMICs were more likely to meet the PA (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AdjOR] = 2.0, 95%Confidence Interval [CI] 1.0,3.8) and SST (AdjOR = 2.2, 95%CI 1.2,3.9) guidelines than their high-income country (HIC) counterparts. Children who could go outside during COVID-19 were more likely to meet all WHO Global guidelines (AdjOR = 3.3, 95%CI 1.1,9.8) than those who were not. Children of parents with higher compared to lower stress were less likely to meet all three guidelines (AdjOR = 0.5, 95%CI 0.3,0.9). CONCLUSION: PA and SST levels of children from LMICs have been less impacted by COVID-19 than in HICs. Ensuring children can access an outdoor space, and supporting parents' mental health are important prerequisites for enabling pre-schoolers to practice healthy movement behaviours and meet the Global guidelines.

Abstract An advanced and widely used method of analysis for multi-environment trial data involves a linear mixed model with factor analytic (FA) variance structures for the variety by environment effects. This model can accommodate unbalanced data, that is, not all varieties in all environments, it allows the use of pedigree information and appropriate accommodation of individual trial experimental designs, and most importantly the FA structure for the variety by environment effects is parsimonious and regularly results in a good fit to the data. The model provides accurate predictions of the variety effects for every environment in the data-set but this constitutes a large and unwieldly amount of information to process for the purpose of variety selection. We address this issue in the current paper by proposing factor analytic selection tools to summarise the predictions in a concise yet informative manner. The tools, which are natural derivatives of the FA structure, result in measures of overall performance and stability across the environments in the data-set. All measures are expressed on the same scale as the trait under consideration and can easily be combined to form an index for selection.

BACKGROUND: Electronic health (eHealth) obesity programs offer benefits to traditionally delivered programs and have shown promise in improving obesity-related behaviors in children. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the efficacy of a parent-focused, internet-based healthy lifestyle program for preschool-aged children, who are overweight or at or above the fiftieth percentile for body mass index (BMI) for their age and sex, on child BMI, obesity-related behaviors, parent modeling, and parent self-efficacy. METHODS: The Time2bHealthy randomized controlled trial was conducted in Australia, during 2016 to 2017. Participants were recruited both online and through more traditional means within the community. Parent or carer, and child (aged 2-5 years) dyads were randomized into an intervention or comparison group. Intervention participants received an 11-week internet-based healthy lifestyle program, underpinned by social cognitive theory, followed by fortnightly emails for 3 months thereafter. Intervention participants set goals and received individual feedback from a dietitian. They were also encouraged to access and contribute to a closed Facebook group to communicate with other participants and the dietitian. Comparison participants received email communication only. Objectively measured child BMI was the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included objectively measured physical activity, parent-measured and objectively measured sleep habits, and parent-reported dietary intake, screen time, child feeding, parent modeling, and parent self-efficacy. All data were collected at face-to-face appointments at baseline, 3 months, and 6 months by blinded data collectors. Randomization was conducted using a computerized random number generator post baseline data collection. RESULTS: A total of 86 dyads were recruited, with 42 randomized to the intervention group and 44 to the comparison group. Moreover, 78 dyads attended the 3- and 6-month follow-ups, with 7 lost to follow-up and 1 withdrawing. Mean child age was 3.46 years and 91% (78/86) were in the healthy weight range. Overall, 69% (29/42) of participants completed at least 5 of the 6 modules. Intention-to-treat analyses found no significant outcomes for change in BMI between groups. Compared with children in the comparison group, those in the intervention group showed a reduced frequency of discretionary food intake (estimate -1.36, 95% CI -2.27 to -0.45; P=.004), and parents showed improvement in child feeding pressure to eat practices (-0.30, 95% CI 0.06 to -0.00; P=.048) and nutrition self-efficacy (0.43, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.76; P=.01). No significant time by group interaction was found for other outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The trial demonstrated that a parent-focused eHealth childhood obesity prevention program can provide support to improve dietary-related practices and self-efficacy but was not successful in reducing BMI. The target sample size was not achieved, which would have affected statistical power. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ANZCTR12616000119493; https://www.anzctr.org.au/ Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=370030 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/74Se4S7ZZ).

This paper compares the health of Australian immigrants with that of the Australian‐born population and examines the extent to which differences vary with time since migration. Health is measured using self‐reports of chronic diseases from three national health surveys. Probit models are used to estimate the health effects of immigrant arrival cohorts, years since migration and country of birth. We find that the health of Australian immigrants is better than the Australian‐born population, but the longer immigrants spend in Australia, the closer their health approximates that of the Australian‐born population. There are variations for different immigrant groups and for particular chronic diseases.

BACKGROUND: National cancer survival statistics are available for the total Australian population but not Indigenous Australians, although their cancer mortality rates are known to be higher than those of other Australians. We aimed to validate analysis methods and report cancer survival rates for Indigenous Australians as the basis for regular national reporting. METHODS: We used national cancer registrations data to calculate all-cancer and site-specific relative survival for Indigenous Australians (compared with non-Indigenous Australians) diagnosed in 2001-2005. Because of limited availability of Indigenous life tables, we validated and used cause-specific survival (rather than relative survival) for proportional hazards regression to analyze time trends and regional variation in all-cancer survival between 1991 and 2005. RESULTS: Survival was lower for Indigenous than non-Indigenous Australians for all cancers combined and for many cancer sites. The excess mortality of Indigenous people with cancer was restricted to the first three years after diagnosis, and greatest in the first year. Survival was lower for rural and remote than urban residents; this disparity was much greater for Indigenous people. Survival improved between 1991 and 2005 for non-Indigenous people (mortality decreased by 28%), but to a much lesser extent for Indigenous people (11%) and only for those in remote areas; cancer survival did not improve for urban Indigenous residents. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer survival is lower for Indigenous than other Australians, for all cancers combined and many individual cancer sites, although more accurate recording of Indigenous status by cancer registers is required before the extent of this disadvantage can be known with certainty. Cancer care for Indigenous Australians needs to be considerably improved; cancer diagnosis, treatment, and support services need to be redesigned specifically to be accessible and acceptable to Indigenous people.

Previous studies suggest that green and blue spaces may promote several health outcomes including birth outcomes. However, no synthesis of previous work has specifically asked policy-relevant questions of how much and what type is needed in every neighborhood to elicit these benefits at the population level. A systematic review and meta-analyses were conducted to synthesize thirty-seven studies on the association between residential green and blue spaces and pregnancy outcomes. Meta-analyses were performed for birth weight (BW), small for gestational age (SGA), low birth weight (LBW) and preterm birth (PTB). Increase in residential greenness was statistically significantly associated with higher BW [β = 0.001, 95%CI: (<0.001, 0.002)] and lower odds of SGA [OR = 0.95, 95%CI: (0.92, 0.97)]. Associations between green space and LBW and PTB were as hypothesized but not statistically significant. Associations between blue spaces and pregnancy outcomes were not evident. No study explicitly examined questions of threshold, though some evidence of nonlinearity indicated that moderate amounts of green space may support more favorable pregnancy outcomes. Policy-relevant green and blue space exposures involving theory-driven thresholds warrant testing to ensure future investments in urban greening promote healthier pregnancy outcomes.

This set of papers chiefly presents a critique of the IPCC's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which claims to “provide the basis for future assessments of climate change and possible response strategies”. The 40 scenarios are technically unsound in that, contrary to accepted international practice, they convert national GDP data to a common measure using market exchange rates. Because of this procedure and built-in assumptions about the extent to which the gap between rich and poor countries will be closed, the scenarios yield projections of GDP for developing regions which are improbably high: this includes the scenarios which give the lowest figures for projected cumulative emissions in the course of the century. Hence the SRES projections do not, as is claimed for them, encompass the full range of uncertainties about the future. Because of these and some other defects that we have noted, the SRES should not be taken as the accepted basis for the IPPC's coming Fourth Assessment Review. More broadly, the IPCC should try to ensure a more balanced, informed and professional treatment of the economic and statistical aspects of its work. In particular, there should be a greater involvement of economic ministries and statistical agencies.

It may be argued that seizing large quantities of heroin being imported into the country should decrease its supply and hence increase its price, resulting in a reduction in the quantity of the drug being purchased or consumed. To date, however, there has been no empirical evidence that heroin seizures in Australia have any effect on the price of heroin at street level. This article describes a 2-year research study during which the price and purity of street-level heroin were regularly monitored. It was found that heroin seizures had no effect on the price, purity or perceived availability of heroin at street level. It was further found that admissions to methadone treatment were not affected by the price or perceived availability of heroin or by local arrests for heroin use/possession, nor was any relationship found between these arrests and the price of street-level heroin. Nevertheless, two-thirds of those who sought entry to local methadone programmes indicated the price as a reason for stopping using heroin. This paper argues that supply-side law enforcement should only be used as a strategy for maintaining high heroin prices if the demand for heroin can be shown to be price-elastic and, further, that the costs of such a strategy need to be weighted against the benefits.