Australian Institute of Marine Science

Classification and regression trees are ideally suited for the analysis of complex ecological data. For such data, we require flexible and robust analytical methods, which can deal with nonlinear relationships, high-order interactions, and missing values. Despite such difficulties, the methods should be simple to understand and give easily interpretable results. Trees explain variation of a single response variable by repeatedly splitting the data into more homogeneous groups, using combinations of explanatory variables that may be categorical and/or numeric. Each group is characterized by a typical value of the response variable, the number of observations in the group, and the values of the explanatory variables that define it. The tree is represented graphically, and this aids exploration and understanding. Trees can be used for interactive exploration and for description and prediction of patterns and processes. Advantages of trees include: (1) the flexibility to handle a broad range of response types, including numeric, categorical, ratings, and survival data; (2) invariance to monotonic transformations of the explanatory variables; (3) ease and robustness of construction; (4) ease of interpretation; and (5) the ability to handle missing values in both response and explanatory variables. Thus, trees complement or represent an alternative to many traditional statistical techniques, including multiple regression, analysis of variance, logistic regression, log-linear models, linear discriminant analysis, and survival models. We use classification and regression trees to analyze survey data from the Australian central Great Barrier Reef, comprising abundances of soft coral taxa (Cnidaria: Octocorallia) and physical and spatial environmental information. Regression tree analyses showed that dense aggregations, typically formed by three taxa, were restricted to distinct habitat types, each of which was defined by combinations of 3–4 environmental variables. The habitat definitions were consistent with known experimental findings on the nutrition of these taxa. When used separately, physical and spatial variables were similarly strong predictors of abundances and lost little in comparison with their joint use. The spatial variables are thus effective surrogates for the physical variables in this extensive reef complex, where information on the physical environment is often not available. Finally, we compare the use of regression trees and linear models for the analysis of these data and show how linear models fail to find patterns uncovered by the trees.

There is a rising concern regarding the accumulation of floating plastic debris in the open ocean. However, the magnitude and the fate of this pollution are still open questions. Using data from the Malaspina 2010 circumnavigation, regional surveys, and previously published reports, we show a worldwide distribution of plastic on the surface of the open ocean, mostly accumulating in the convergence zones of each of the five subtropical gyres with comparable density. However, the global load of plastic on the open ocean surface was estimated to be on the order of tens of thousands of tons, far less than expected. Our observations of the size distribution of floating plastic debris point at important size-selective sinks removing millimeter-sized fragments of floating plastic on a large scale. This sink may involve a combination of fast nano-fragmentation of the microplastic into particles of microns or smaller, their transference to the ocean interior by food webs and ballasting processes, and processes yet to be discovered. Resolving the fate of the missing plastic debris is of fundamental importance to determine the nature and significance of the impacts of plastic pollution in the ocean.

Our growing awareness of the microbial world's importance and diversity contrasts starkly with our limited understanding of its fundamental structure. Despite recent advances in DNA sequencing, a lack of standardized protocols and common analytical frameworks impedes comparisons among studies, hindering the development of global inferences about microbial life on Earth. Here we present a meta-analysis of microbial community samples collected by hundreds of researchers for the Earth Microbiome Project. Coordinated protocols and new analytical methods, particularly the use of exact sequences instead of clustered operational taxonomic units, enable bacterial and archaeal ribosomal RNA gene sequences to be followed across multiple studies and allow us to explore patterns of diversity at an unprecedented scale. The result is both a reference database giving global context to DNA sequence data and a framework for incorporating data from future studies, fostering increasingly complete characterization of Earth's microbial diversity.

Tropical reef systems are transitioning to a new era in which the interval between recurrent bouts of coral bleaching is too short for a full recovery of mature assemblages. We analyzed bleaching records at 100 globally distributed reef locations from 1980 to 2016. The median return time between pairs of severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 and is now only 6 years. As global warming has progressed, tropical sea surface temperatures are warmer now during current La Niña conditions than they were during El Niño events three decades ago. Consequently, as we transition to the Anthropocene, coral bleaching is occurring more frequently in all El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases, increasing the likelihood of annual bleaching in the coming decades.

NeEstimator v2 is a completely revised and updated implementation of software that produces estimates of contemporary effective population size, using several different methods and a single input file. NeEstimator v2 includes three single-sample estimators (updated versions of the linkage disequilibrium and heterozygote-excess methods, and a new method based on molecular coancestry), as well as the two-sample (moment-based temporal) method. New features include the following: (i) an improved method for accounting for missing data; (ii) options for screening out rare alleles; (iii) confidence intervals for all methods; (iv) the ability to analyse data sets with large numbers of genetic markers (10 000 or more); (v) options for batch processing large numbers of different data sets, which will facilitate cross-method comparisons using simulated data; and (vi) correction for temporal estimates when individuals sampled are not removed from the population (Plan I sampling). The user is given considerable control over input data and composition, and format of output files. The freely available software has a new JAVA interface and runs under MacOS, Linux and Windows.

Most protocols for the preparation of bacterial genomic DNA consist of lysis, followed by incubation with a nonspecific protease and a series of extractions prior to precipitation of the nucleic acids. Such procedures effectively remove contaminating proteins, but are not effective in removing exopolysaccharides which can interfere with the activity of enzymes such as restriction endonucleases and ligases. In this unit, however, the protease incubation is followed by a CTAB extraction whereby CTAB complexes both with polysaccharides and with residual protein, effectively removing both in the subsequent emulsification and extraction. This procedure is effective in producing digestible chromosomal DNA from a variety of gram-negative bacteria, all of which normally produce large amounts of polysaccharides. If large amounts of exceptionally clean DNA are required, the procedure can be scaled up and the DNA purified on a CsCl gradient, as described in the alternate protocol.

In the Anthropocene, in which we now live, climate change is impacting most life on Earth. Microorganisms support the existence of all higher trophic life forms. To understand how humans and other life forms on Earth (including those we are yet to discover) can withstand anthropogenic climate change, it is vital to incorporate knowledge of the microbial ‘unseen majority’. We must learn not just how microorganisms affect climate change (including production and consumption of greenhouse gases) but also how they will be affected by climate change and other human activities. This Consensus Statement documents the central role and global importance of microorganisms in climate change biology. It also puts humanity on notice that the impact of climate change will depend heavily on responses of microorganisms, which are essential for achieving an environmentally sustainable future. The microbial majority with which we share Earth often goes unnoticed despite underlying major biogeochemical cycles and food webs, thereby taking a key role in climate change. This Consensus Statement highlights the importance of climate change microbiology and issues a call to action for all microbiologists.

Heatwaves are important climatic extremes in atmospheric and oceanic systems that can have devastating and long-term impacts on ecosystems, with subsequent socioeconomic consequences. Recent prominent marine heatwaves have attracted considerable scientific and public interest. Despite this, a comprehensive assessment of how these ocean temperature extremes have been changing globally is missing. Using a range of ocean temperature data including global records of daily satellite observations, daily in situ measurements and gridded monthly in situ-based data sets, we identify significant increases in marine heatwaves over the past century. We find that from 1925 to 2016, global average marine heatwave frequency and duration increased by 34% and 17%, respectively, resulting in a 54% increase in annual marine heatwave days globally. Importantly, these trends can largely be explained by increases in mean ocean temperatures, suggesting that we can expect further increases in marine heatwave days under continued global warming.

The rapid expansion of human activities threatens ocean-wide biodiversity. Numerous marine animal populations have declined, yet it remains unclear whether these trends are symptomatic of a chronic accumulation of global marine extinction risk. We present the first systematic analysis of threat for a globally distributed lineage of 1,041 chondrichthyan fishes-sharks, rays, and chimaeras. We estimate that one-quarter are threatened according to IUCN Red List criteria due to overfishing (targeted and incidental). Large-bodied, shallow-water species are at greatest risk and five out of the seven most threatened families are rays. Overall chondrichthyan extinction risk is substantially higher than for most other vertebrates, and only one-third of species are considered safe. Population depletion has occurred throughout the world's ice-free waters, but is particularly prevalent in the Indo-Pacific Biodiversity Triangle and Mediterranean Sea. Improved management of fisheries and trade is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and promote population recovery. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00590.001.

Mangroves, the only woody halophytes living at the confluence of land and sea, have been heavily used traditionally for food, timber, fuel and medicine, and presently occupy about 181 000 km 2 of tropical and subtropical coastline. Over the past 50 years, approximately one-third of the world's mangrove forests have been lost, but most data show very variable loss rates and there is considerable margin of error in most estimates. Mangroves are a valuable ecological and economic resource, being important nursery grounds and breeding sites for birds, fish, crustaceans, shellfish, reptiles and mammals; a renewable source of wood; accumulation sites for sediment, contaminants, carbon and nutrients; and offer protection against coastal erosion. The destruction of mangroves is usually positively related to human population density. Major reasons for destruction are urban development, aquaculture, mining and overexploitation for timber, fish, crustaceans and shellfish. Over the next 25 years, unrestricted clear felling, aquaculture, and overexploitation of fisheries will be the greatest threats, with lesser problems being alteration of hydrology, pollution and global warming. Loss of biodiversity is, and will continue to be, a severe problem as even pristine mangroves are species-poor compared with other tropical ecosystems. The future is not entirely bleak. The number of rehabilitation and restoration projects is increasing worldwide with some countries showing increases in mangrove area. The intensity of coastal aquaculture appears to have levelled off in some parts of the world. Some commercial projects and economic models indicate that mangroves can be used as a sustainable resource, especially for wood. The brightest note is that the rate of population growth is projected to slow during the next 50 years, with a gradual decline thereafter to the end of the century. Mangrove forests will continue to be exploited at current rates to 2025, unless they are seen as a valuable resource to be managed on a sustainable basis. After 2025, the future of mangroves will depend on technological and ecological advances in multi-species silviculture, genetics, and forestry modelling, but the greatest hope for their future is for a reduction in human population growth.

The world's coral reefs are being degraded, and the need to reduce local pressures to offset the effects of increasing global pressures is now widely recognized. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of coral cover, identifies the main drivers of coral mortality, and quantifies the rates of potential recovery of the Great Barrier Reef. Based on the world's most extensive time series data on reef condition (2,258 surveys of 214 reefs over 1985-2012), we show a major decline in coral cover from 28.0% to 13.8% (0.53% y(-1)), a loss of 50.7% of initial coral cover. Tropical cyclones, coral predation by crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), and coral bleaching accounted for 48%, 42%, and 10% of the respective estimated losses, amounting to 3.38% y(-1) mortality rate. Importantly, the relatively pristine northern region showed no overall decline. The estimated rate of increase in coral cover in the absence of cyclones, COTS, and bleaching was 2.85% y(-1), demonstrating substantial capacity for recovery of reefs. In the absence of COTS, coral cover would increase at 0.89% y(-1), despite ongoing losses due to cyclones and bleaching. Thus, reducing COTS populations, by improving water quality and developing alternative control measures, could prevent further coral decline and improve the outlook for the Great Barrier Reef. Such strategies can, however, only be successful if climatic conditions are stabilized, as losses due to bleaching and cyclones will otherwise increase.

Mangroves are ecologically and economically important forests of the tropics. They are highly productive ecosystems with rates of primary production equal to those of tropical humid evergreen forests and coral reefs. Although mangroves occupy only 0.5% of the global coastal area, they contribute 10-15% (24 Tg C y(-1)) to coastal sediment carbon storage and export 10-11% of the particulate terrestrial carbon to the ocean. Their disproportionate contribution to carbon sequestration is now perceived as a means for conservation and restoration and a way to help ameliorate greenhouse gas emissions. Of immediate concern are potential carbon losses to deforestation (90-970 Tg C y(-1)) that are greater than these ecosystems' rates of carbon storage. Large reservoirs of dissolved inorganic carbon in deep soils, pumped via subsurface pathways to adjacent waterways, are a large loss of carbon, at a potential rate up to 40% of annual primary production. Patterns of carbon allocation and rates of carbon flux in mangrove forests are nearly identical to those of other tropical forests.

Coral reefs are the most biologically diverse of shallow water marine ecosystems but are being degraded worldwide by human activities and climate warming. Analyses of the geographic ranges of 3235 species of reef fish, corals, snails, and lobsters revealed that between 7.2% and 53.6% of each taxon have highly restricted ranges, rendering them vulnerable to extinction. Restricted-range species are clustered into centers of endemism, like those described for terrestrial taxa. The 10 richest centers of endemism cover 15.8% of the world's coral reefs (0.012% of the oceans) but include between 44.8 and 54.2% of the restricted-range species. Many occur in regions where reefs are being severely affected by people, potentially leading to numerous extinctions. Threatened centers of endemism are major biodiversity hotspots, and conservation efforts targeted toward them could help avert the loss of tropical reef biodiversity.

Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.

The ability of coral reefs to survive the projected increases in temperature due to global warming will depend largely on the ability of corals to adapt or acclimatize to increased temperature extremes over the next few decades. Many coral species are highly sensitive to temperature stress and the number of stress (bleaching) episodes has increased in recent decades. We investigated the acclimatization potential of Acropora millepora, a common and widespread Indo-Pacific hard coral species, through transplantation and experimental manipulation. We show that adult corals, at least in some circumstances, are capable of acquiring increased thermal tolerance and that the increased tolerance is a direct result of a change in the symbiont type dominating their tissues from Symbiodinium type C to D. Our data suggest that the change in symbiont type in our experiment was due to a shuffling of existing types already present in coral tissues, not through exogenous uptake from the environment. The level of increased tolerance gained by the corals changing their dominant symbiont type to D (the most thermally resistant type known) is around 1-1.5 degrees C. This is the first study to show that thermal acclimatization is causally related to symbiont type and provides new insight into the ecological advantage of corals harbouring mixed algal populations. While this increase is of huge ecological significance for many coral species, in the absence of other mechanisms of thermal acclimatization/adaptation, it may not be sufficient to survive climate change under predicted sea surface temperature scenarios over the next 100 years. However, it may be enough to 'buy time' while greenhouse reduction measures are put in place.

Accurate prediction and explanation are fundamental objectives of statistical analysis, yet they seldom coincide. Boosted trees are a statistical learning method that attains both of these objectives for regression and classification analyses. They can deal with many types of response variables (numeric, categorical, and censored), loss functions (Gaussian, binomial, Poisson, and robust), and predictors (numeric, categorical). Interactions between predictors can also be quantified and visualized. The theory underpinning boosted trees is presented, together with interpretive techniques. A new form of boosted trees, namely, "aggregated boosted trees" (ABT), is proposed and, in a simulation study, is shown to reduce prediction error relative to boosted trees. A regression data set is analyzed using ABT to illustrate the technique and to compare it with other methods, including boosted trees, bagged trees, random forests, and generalized additive models. A software package for ABT analysis using the R software environment is included in the Appendices together with worked examples.

The genetic enhancement of wild animals and plants for characteristics that benefit human populations has been practiced for thousands of years, resulting in impressive improvements in commercially valuable species. Despite these benefits, genetic manipulations are rarely considered for noncommercial purposes, such as conservation and restoration initiatives. Over the last century, humans have driven global climate change through industrialization and the release of increasing amounts of CO2, resulting in shifts in ocean temperature, ocean chemistry, and sea level, as well as increasing frequency of storms, all of which can profoundly impact marine ecosystems. Coral reefs are highly diverse ecosystems that have suffered massive declines in health and abundance as a result of these and other direct anthropogenic disturbances. There is great concern that the high rates, magnitudes, and complexity of environmental change are overwhelming the intrinsic capacity of corals to adapt and survive. Although it is important to address the root causes of changing climate, it is also prudent to explore the potential to augment the capacity of reef organisms to tolerate stress and to facilitate recovery after disturbances. Here, we review the risks and benefits of the improvement of natural and commercial stocks in noncoral reef systems and advocate a series of experiments to determine the feasibility of developing coral stocks with enhanced stress tolerance through the acceleration of naturally occurring processes, an approach known as (human)-assisted evolution, while at the same time initiating a public dialogue on the risks and benefits of this approach.

Although vast technological advances have been made and genetic software packages are growing in number, it is not a trivial task to analyse SNP data. We announce a new r package, dartr, enabling the analysis of single nucleotide polymorphism data for population genomic and phylogenomic applications. dartr provides user-friendly functions for data quality control and marker selection, and permits rigorous evaluations of conformation to Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, gametic-phase disequilibrium and neutrality. The package reports standard descriptive statistics, permits exploration of patterns in the data through principal components analysis and conducts standard F-statistics, as well as basic phylogenetic analyses, population assignment, isolation by distance and exports data to a variety of commonly used downstream applications (e.g., newhybrids, faststructure and phylogeny applications) outside of the r environment. The package serves two main purposes: first, a user-friendly approach to lower the hurdle to analyse such data-therefore, the package comes with a detailed tutorial targeted to the r beginner to allow data analysis without requiring deep knowledge of r. Second, we use a single, well-established format-genlight from the adegenet package-as input for all our functions to avoid data reformatting. By strictly using the genlight format, we hope to facilitate this format as the de facto standard of future software developments and hence reduce the format jungle of genetic data sets. The dartr package is available via the r CRAN network and GitHub.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most potent source of interannual climate variability. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of greenhouse warming on ENSO strength and frequency has stimulated efforts to develop a better understanding of the sensitivity of ENSO to climate change. Here we use annually banded corals from Papua New Guinea to show that ENSO has existed for the past 130,000 years, operating even during "glacial" times of substantially reduced regional and global temperature and changed solar forcing. However, we also find that during the 20th century ENSO has been strong compared with ENSO of previous cool (glacial) and warm (interglacial) times. The observed pattern of change in amplitude may be due to the combined effects of ENSO dampening during cool glacial conditions and ENSO forcing by precessional orbital variations.

Mangrove forests are highly productive, with carbon production rates equivalent to tropical humid forests. Mangroves allocate proportionally more carbon belowground, and have higher below- to above-ground carbon mass ratios than terrestrial trees. Most mangrove carbon is stored as large pools in soil and dead roots. Mangroves are among the most carbon-rich biomes, containing an average of 937 tC ha-1, facilitating the accumulation of fine particles, and fostering rapid rates of sediment accretion (∼5 mm year -1) and carbon burial (174 gC m-2 year -1). Mangroves account for only approximately 1% (13.5 Gt year -1) of carbon sequestration by the world’s forests, but as coastal habitats they account for 14% of carbon sequestration by the global ocean. If mangrove carbon stocks are disturbed, resultant gas emissions may be very high. Irrespective of uncertainties and the unique nature of implementing REDD+ and Blue Carbon projects, mangroves are prime ecosystems for reforestation and restoration.