Australian Renewable Energy Agency

Abstract Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) wildfires cause devastation in many regions globally. Given that fire‐atmosphere coupling is associated with pyroCbs, future changes in coincident high index values of atmospheric instability and dryness (C‐Haines) and near‐surface fire weather are assessed for southeastern Australia using a regional climate projection ensemble. We show that observed pyroCb events occur predominantly on forested, rugged landscapes during extreme C‐Haines conditions, but over a wide range of surface fire weather conditions. Statistically significant increases in the number of days where both C‐Haines and near‐surface fire weather values are conducive to pyroCb development are projected across southeastern Australia, predominantly for November (spring), and less strongly for December (summer) in 2060‐2079 versus 1990‐2009, with future C‐Haines increases linked to increased 850‐hPa dewpoint depression. The increased future occurrence of conditions conducive to pyroCb development and their extension into spring have implications for mitigating these dangerous wildfires and urbanizing fire‐prone landscapes.

Mangrove ecosystems are in serious decline around the world and various initiatives are underway to assess their current coverage and loss in cover. These ecosystems occur as thin strips along coastlines or rivers and, due to the strong environmental gradients present, mangroves show high spatial variability along short transects. Remote sensing tools that offer high spatial resolution mapping and high information content are needed to provide good differentiation of the various mangrove zones and types. The added complexities of tropical atmospheric conditions provide further challenges in terms of the selection of sensors and image analysis methodologies. This paper explores the possibility of combining a high spatial/spectral resolution scanner, 'Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager' (CASI), with the airborne National Aeronautics @ Space Administration's polarimetric radar, 'AIRSAR', for mapping and monitoring of mangrove estuaries. The Daintree River estuary in far North Queensland, Australia was chosen for this study due to its diversity of mangrove species. Imagery acquired by both the CASI airborne scanner (14 bands, 2.5 m pixel) and the AIRSAR (L- and P-band polarimetry, C-band interferometry, 10 m pixel) has been used to produce detailed maps of the mangrove zones in the estuary. The advantages and difficulties associated with multi-source data integration are investigated in this paper. While radar provides general structural information in relation to mangrove zonation, high-resolution hyperspectral scanners allow for finer-detailed analysis and green-biomass information. Classifications (maximum likelihood) of both the individual and integrated datasets are performed, with the latter producing more accurate results. Application of a hierarchical neural network classification is also explored, where the more general mangrove zones are separated first based on structural information, then species or specie-complexes are extracted in subsequent levels using spectral differences.

The interaction of wind, terrain and a fire burning in a landscape can produce a variety of unusual yet significant effects on fire propagation. One such example, in which a fire exhibits rapid spread in a direction transverse to the synoptic winds as well as in the usual downwind direction, is considered in this paper. This type of fire spread, which is referred to as ‘fire channelling’, is characterised by intense lateral and downwind spotting and production of extensive flaming zones. The dependence of fire channelling on wind and terrain is analysed using wind, terrain and multispectral fire data collected during the January 2003 Alpine fires over south-eastern Australia. As part of the analysis, a simple terrain-filter model is utilised to confirm a quantitative link between instances of fire channelling and parts of the terrain that are sufficiently steep and lee-facing. By appealing to the theory of wind–terrain interaction and the available evidence, several processes that could produce the atypical fire spread are considered and some discounted. Based on the processes that could not be discounted, and a previous analysis of wind regimes in rugged terrain, a likely explanation for the fire channelling phenomenon is hypothesised. Implications of fire channelling for bushfire risk management are also discussed.

Abstract. A coupled carbon and water flux model (BIOME2) captures the broad‐scale environmental controls on the natural distribution of vegetation structural and phenological types in Australia. Model input consists of latitude, soil type, and mean monthly climate (temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours) data on a 1/10° grid. Model output consists of foliage projective cover (FPC) for the quantitative combination of plant types that maximizes net primary production (NPP). The model realistically simulates changes in FPC along moisture gradients as a consequence of the trade‐off between light capture and water stress. A two‐layer soil hydrology model also allows simulation of the competitive balance between grass and woody vegetation including the strong effects of soil texture.

Abstract Cross‐border higher education raises a number of challenges and there is a growing awareness among quality assurance agencies that they have to work together to address these challenges. The joint effort of UNESCO–OECD to develop Guidelines for Quality Provision in Cross‐border Higher Education is an educational response to this need. This paper presents the background and outcome of discussions of the quality assurance agencies with specific reference to these Guidelines, during the workshop held at The Hague in May 2006. Section 1 presents the background to the theme. Capacity building emerges as a major challenge to be addressed. Section 2 explains how UNESCO–OECD joint effort is an educational response to this challenge. Section 3 argues that the Guidelines are helpful to address the concerns of different perspectives but also raises six specific questions that need attention. Section 4 summarises what emerged during the parallel group discussions on those six questions. Finally, section 5 draws the emerging pattern from the discussions and attempts to identify future directions for the networks such as INQAAHE and its member agencies. Keywords: quality assurancecross‐border higher educationtransnational educationUNESCO–OECD Guidelinescooperation in quality assurancemutual trust in quality assurance Acknowledgements The author wishes to acknowledge that this paper builds on some of the earlier works on quality assurance and the Guidelines. Section 1 is based on the author's paper presented in the INQAAHE 2005 conference which was later published in Quality in Higher Education, Volume 11, Number 3. The author of this paper was a member of the expert group that drafted the UNESCO–OECD Guidelines for wider consultation. Section 2 of this paper is a revised version of the author's presentation introducing the UNESCO–OECD Guidelines to the participants of the regional seminar on the ‘Implications of WTO / GATS on higher education in Asia and the Pacific’ held at Seoul in April 2005. A brief version of this was presented by the author in the INQAAHE workshop (Hague, 2006).

Operational prediction of wildfire behaviour requires assessment of dead fuel moisture content to an acceptable degree of accuracy. Ideally, the methods of assessment should be simple enough to implement in most operational settings, including those where computational power is a constraining factor. In this short note, we describe a very simple model for estimating dead fine fuel moisture content and compare its predictions with several fuel moisture observations and the predictions of a complex process-based model and two of its simplifications. Remarkably, the very simple model is shown to fit the observational data just as well, if not slightly better, than the more sophisticated models. The result highlights the issues of engineering and parsimony of models for dead fuel moisture content. These issues are briefly discussed.

The Mount Lofty Ranges and adjacent plains support an isolated woodland and open forest system that has been extensively cleared such that only 7% of the pre-European vegetation remains. The vegetation has been disproportionately cleared from the good quality agricultural land on lower elevations where only 2% remains. Within this region floral resources are more abundant during winter and spring when plants growing on poor quality soils flower. Honeyeaters recruit into these areas during winter and breed before departing as floral resources wane. Honeyeaters regularly move distances of 10-100 km in search of food within the Mt Lofty region. The habitats that provide floral nectar during late summer and autumn, the gum and box woodlands, however, have been disproportionately cleared and honeyeater populations decline during these times. As a consequence, honeyeaters are unable to recruit back in adequate numbers to service fully the pollination requirements of winter- and spring-flowering plants that suffer reduced seed production. These bird-plant systems operate at a regional scale, and restoration should focus on putting back native vegetation on good quality agricultural land, since components of this vegetation provide floral resources during late summer and autumn. Based on the amount of vegetation that remains, 35-50 predominantly woodland bird species will go regionally extinct in the Mt Lofty region. Consistent with these predictions, 10 species are already considered regionally extinct and another 60 species continue to decline in abundance and or distribution. The critical requirement is to put back substantial amounts of appropriate habitat. Current revegetation efforts, however, are inadequate. The vast majority of revegetation effort produces patches of new vegetation that are too small (often<1ha), linear in shape, on poorer soils, consist of a few plant species planted in rows and at very high densities, and are largely disconnected from other patches of vegetation. These revegetation efforts support small numbers of widespread bird species and are rarely used consistently by declining species. Many of the declining woodland birds, however, use the extensive Monarto plantations, suggesting that larger areas of reconstructed habitat are needed elsewhere in the region. Based on the habitat needed by pairs of some the declining species, minimum patch sizes of the order of 20-100 ha need to be re-established on good quality agricultural lands. Rather than continuing to retire small plots of land on individual properties a different approach is urgently needed. An alternative is to retire whole farms, perhaps one in ten, and concentrate restoration efforts in fewer larger blocks. This will provide large areas (>100 ha) of good quality land for restoration but will need broad community support. Rather than purchasing farms, owners should be paid to remain on the land and do the restoration work. This restoration program will take a 100 or more years to produce self-sustaining woodland habitats that the birds can use. In the interim the declining species will need to be managed wisely and intensively so that they will still be present in the landscape to colonize the new habitats. At present there is inadequate information about how to construct woodland habitats as opposed to just planting woodland species. There is also inadequate information on the ecology of the birds. Considerable research and adaptive management is needed to address the information gaps and to build the capacity to implement holistic recovery programs. There is an urgency to take action, since the longer we delay the fewer species that will be conserved. Future generations will not have the same opportunity.

Violent fire-driven convection can manifest as towering pyrocumulus (pyroCu) or pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds, which can have devastating impacts on the environment and society. Their associated fire spread is erratic, unpredictable and not generally suppressible. Research into large pyroconvective events has mainly focused on the atmospheric processes involved in normal atmospheric convection, or on surface fire weather and associated fuel conditions. There has been comparatively less attention paid to the role of the fire itself in these coupled fire–atmosphere events. This paper draws on recent insights into dynamic fire propagation and extreme wildfire development to investigate how the fire influences the occurrence of violent pyroconvective events. A static heat source of variable dimension and intensity is used. This is accompanied by a companion paper that extends the analysis by including the effect of fire geometry on the pyroconvective plume. The analyses indicate that the spatial expanse and intensity of large fires are critical factors driving the development of pyroconvective plumes and can override the influence of the stability of the atmosphere. These findings provide motivation for further investigation into the effect of the fire’s attributes on the immediate atmosphere and have the potential to improve forecasting of blow-up fire events.

Fire spread associated with violent pyrogenic convection is highly unpredictable and difficult to suppress. Wildfire-driven convection may generate cumulonimbus (storm) clouds, also known as pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb). Research into such phenomena has tended to treat the fire on the surface and convection in the atmosphere above as separate processes. We used a numerical model to examine the effect of fire geometry on the height of a pyroconvective plume, using idealised model runs in a neutral atmosphere. The role of geometry was investigated because large areal fires have been associated with the development of pyroCb. Complementary results (detailed in Part I) are extended by considering the effect that fire shape can have on plume height by comparing circular, square, and rectangular fires of varying length and width, representing the difference between firelines and areal fires. Results reveal that the perimeter/area ratio influenced the amount of entrainment that the plume experiences and therefore the height to which the plume rises before it loses buoyancy. These results will aid in the prediction of blow-up fires (whereby a fire exhibits a rapid increase in rate of spread or rate of spread) and may therefore be useful in determining where fire agencies deploy their limited resources.

BACKGROUND: Injuries are an emerging public health issue among children worldwide, and one of the leading causes of disability-adjusted life years lost for children aged 0-14 years. Few studies, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, have analysed characteristics and risk factors for these injuries. METHODS: This study examined the occurrence and risk factors of serious non-fatal injuries in children aged 7-9 years (n=1820) from Andhra Pradesh, India. Logistic regression models were used to explore potential risk factors for these injuries. RESULTS: Based on a 3-year recall period, 336 (18.5%) children reported serious non-fatal injuries. Incidence was higher among males (209/971; 21.5%) compared to females (127/849; 15.0%). Of the most serious non-fatal injuries reported, falls (n=186, 55.4%) were the major cause of injuries, followed by road traffic injuries (50, 14.9%), and assaults/blows/hits (26, 7.7%). Twenty children (6.0%) did not fully recover from their injuries, and 14 (4.2%) had long-term health problems as a result of their injuries. The logistic regression analyses indicated that being male (AOR 1.59; 95% CI: 1.25-2.05), in poor health (AOR 2.50; 95% CI: 1.88-3.31), and having a caregiver with low education (AOR 1.53; 95% CI: 1.15-2.05) were associated with an increased risk of non-fatal injury. CONCLUSIONS: Urgent attention is needed to reduce child injuries and address risk factors according to local context.

Many caves around the world have very high concentrations of naturally occurring 222Rn that may vary dramatically with seasonal and diurnal patterns. For most caves with a variable seasonal or diurnal pattern, 222Rn concentration is driven by bi-directional convective ventilation, which responds to external temperature contrast with cave temperature. Cavers and cave workers exposed to high 222Rn have an increased risk of contracting lung cancer. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) has re-evaluated its estimates of lung cancer risk from inhalation of radon progeny (ICRP 115) and for cave workers the risk may now (ICRP 137) be 4–6 times higher than previously recognized. Cave Guides working underground in caves with annual average 222Rn activity > 1,000 Bq/m3 and default ICRP assumptions (2,000 workplace hours per year, equilibrium factor F = 0.4, dose conversion factor DCF = 14 µSv/(kBq h m-3) could now receive a dose of > 20 mSv/y. Using multiple gas tracers (d13 C--CO2, Rn and N2O), linked weather, source gas flux chambers, and convective air flow measurements a previous study unequivocally identified the external soil above Chifley Cave as the source of cave 222Rn. If the source of 222Rn is external to the cave, a strategy to lower cave 222Rn by passively decreasing summer pattern convective ventilation, which draws 222Rn into caves, is possible without harming the cave environment. A small net annual average temperature difference (warmer cave air) due to geothermal heat flux produces a large net annual volumetric air flow bias (2–5:1) favoring a winter ventilation pattern that flushes Rn from caves with ambient air. Rapid anthropogenic climate change over decades may heat the average annual external temperature relative to the cave temperature that is stabilized by the thermal inertia of the large rock mass. Relative external temperature increases due to climate change (Jenolan Caves, 2008–2018, 0.17°C) reduces the winter pattern air flow bias and increases Rn concentration in caves.

Hydrogen is increasingly recognised as a potential critical energy carrier in decarbonising global energy systems. Australia is positioning itself as a potential leader in offshore renewable hydrogen production by leveraging existing liquified natural gas export infrastructure, activating its abundant renewable energy resources, and harnessing its extensive offshore marine acreage. Despite this, there is limited research on the techno-economic and regulatory pathways for offshore hydrogen development in Australia as an enabler of its net zero manufacturing and export ambitions. This study offers a multidisciplinary assessment and review of Australia's offshore renewable hydrogen potential. It aims to examine the technical, legal, and economic challenges and opportunities to enable and adapt the existing Australian offshore electricity regulatory regime and enable policy to facilitate future renewable offshore hydrogen licensing and production. Overall, the findings provide practical insights for advancing Australia's offshore hydrogen transition, including technical innovations needed to scale offshore wind development. The study demonstrates how a specific offshore hydrogen licensing framework could reduce legal uncertainties to create economies of scale and reduce hydrogen investment risk to unlock the full potential of developing offshore renewable hydrogen projects. • Efficiencies and derisking for offshore hydrogen projects can be achieved. • Law reform to create a separate licensing regime for offshore hydrogen projects is proposed. • Substantial variations in findings for the cost and competitiveness of offshore renewable hydrogen production. • Cost of offshore hydrogen production projected as 1.48€/kg for Australia.

Abstract The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) has provided grant funding to 18 off‐grid and fringe‐of‐grid renewable energy projects under the Regional Australia's Renewables (RAR) program since 2013. This program was designed to address real and perceived risks associated with early stage, precommercial renewable energy development and provide a foundation of demonstration projects to enable the development of a competitive renewable energy sector. These projects range from low to high renewable energy fractions at megawatt scale in remote regions of Australia and encompass a variety of sectors, such as mining, tourism, and remote communities. All projects use photovoltaic as a key technology, often supplemented by additional technologies. The experience from these projects shows that land acquisition, technical integration, stakeholder engagement, and access to finance are among the main reasons for project delivery delays. A qualitative assessment for the remoteness premium is given, based on a comparison of ARENA‐funded on‐grid and off‐grid projects. This indicates that the structural barriers of governance, supply chains, and finance need to be tackled further to lower soft costs. One of the key enablers for future lower renewable energy costs is ARENA's Knowledge Sharing model, through which the funding agency is recompensed by data and information that is provided to the market and increases the impact of ARENA funding.

Abstract Climate change, and the need to wean the world off hydrocarbon sources of energy, will have a significant impact on the hydrocarbon industry, an industry worth hundreds of billions of dollars annually, and which has been in existence for over a century. Even though the phasing out of hydrocarbons as an energy source is inevitable, the demise of the hydrocarbon industry is not. This study, demonstrates that the hydrocarbon industry can make a significant contribution as the world transitions to low carbon energy. in this paper, we discuss the role of the hydrocarbon industry in developing a new hydrogen industry, demonstrating how the industry’s know how will be vital in the development, construction, and delivery of both blue and green hydrogen to an energy hungry world.

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Community monitoring began in Australia in the 1980s primarily as an awareness-raising tool. Since that time, the community has developed increased skills and knowledge in monitoring procedures and both the data collectors and data users are placing greater demands on community data to be accurate and reliable. With over 3,500 community groups in the field collecting data at over 5,000 sites across Australia, the Waterwatch Program has developed guidelines and tools for monitoring and data collection for the community to collect reliable, accurate and useful data. This paper will discuss how Waterwatch is providing technical support through a range of data confidence guidelines and procedures to ensure that community monitoring and community data continue to play a significant role in the protection and management of our waterways. This paper will also draw on a couple of case studies from across Australia that demonstrate community data being used by a variety of stakeholders.

As NASA prepares to return to the Moon as a stepping stone to Mars with the upcoming Artemis program, humans will be required to sustain life in outer space for longer periods of time and in harsher environments. As humanity gets closer to living off world, we need to consider the complexities that will make this possible and the steps towards reaching this goal. Recommendations made for the early stages of a lunar farm include the use of semi-subsurface or subsurface structures to mitigate the impact of harmful radiation, micrometeorites, and severe temperature variations; and the construction of a settlement at a polar location, to increase insolation and access to water ice. Food sources have been selected for their nutritional value and ability to create diverse meals that suit the physiological and psychological requirements of humans. The construction and management of the lunar farm must align with international treaties; therefore, an international authority model is likely to be the most appropriate management structure for the farm. Although further scientific research is required, it is expected that by implementing these recommendations, the farm would be a viable option for sustaining humans on the Moon.

function. Three challenges are posed to biologists who study invertebrates: cooperation among specialists across the taxa; the development of analytical techniques to determine ecosystem/landscape health; and, the presentation of research find- ings in forms accessable and usable by planners and managers.

Energy systems in OECD countries are transitioning towards decentralization. This shift is due to energy policy and climate policy pressures, changing consumer preferences, and drive to decentralized generation and storage, and this transformation is also driven by technological advances such as the ‘internet of energy’ of which includes smart grids. This article offers an insight into this socio-technical change from a sociological perspective; the challenges for policy makers, and the challenges for energy networks, through the lens of an Australian smart grid pilot.