British Antarctic Survey

One of the most ubiquitous and long-lasting recent changes to the surface of our planet is the accumulation and fragmentation of plastics. Within just a few decades since mass production of plastic products commenced in the 1950s, plastic debris has accumulated in terrestrial environments, in the open ocean, on shorelines of even the most remote islands and in the deep sea. Annual clean-up operations, costing millions of pounds sterling, are now organized in many countries and on every continent. Here we document global plastics production and the accumulation of plastic waste. While plastics typically constitute approximately 10 per cent of discarded waste, they represent a much greater proportion of the debris accumulating on shorelines. Mega- and macro-plastics have accumulated in the highest densities in the Northern Hemisphere, adjacent to urban centres, in enclosed seas and at water convergences (fronts). We report lower densities on remote island shores, on the continental shelf seabed and the lowest densities (but still a documented presence) in the deep sea and Southern Ocean. The longevity of plastic is estimated to be hundreds to thousands of years, but is likely to be far longer in deep sea and non-surface polar environments. Plastic debris poses considerable threat by choking and starving wildlife, distributing non-native and potentially harmful organisms, absorbing toxic chemicals and degrading to micro-plastics that may subsequently be ingested. Well-established annual surveys on coasts and at sea have shown that trends in mega- and macro-plastic accumulation rates are no longer uniformly increasing: rather stable, increasing and decreasing trends have all been reported. The average size of plastic particles in the environment seems to be decreasing, and the abundance and global distribution of micro-plastic fragments have increased over the last few decades. However, the environmental consequences of such microscopic debris are still poorly understood.

Abstract The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) project is an international effort to produce a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning the twentieth century, assimilating only surface pressure reports and using observed monthly sea‐surface temperature and sea‐ice distributions as boundary conditions. It is chiefly motivated by a need to provide an observational dataset with quantified uncertainties for validations of climate model simulations of the twentieth century on all time‐scales, with emphasis on the statistics of daily weather. It uses an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method with background ‘first guess’ fields supplied by an ensemble of forecasts from a global numerical weather prediction model. This directly yields a global analysis every 6 hours as the most likely state of the atmosphere, and also an uncertainty estimate of that analysis. The 20CR dataset provides the first estimates of global tropospheric variability, and of the dataset's time‐varying quality, from 1871 to the present at 6‐hourly temporal and 2° spatial resolutions. Intercomparisons with independent radiosonde data indicate that the reanalyses are generally of high quality. The quality in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere throughout the century is similar to that of current three‐day operational NWP forecasts. Intercomparisons over the second half‐century of these surface‐based reanalyses with other reanalyses that also make use of upper‐air and satellite data are equally encouraging. It is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long‐term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific–North American pattern are weak or non‐existent over the full period of record. The long‐term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.

A high-resolution deuterium profile is now available along the entire European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica Dome C ice core, extending this climate record back to marine isotope stage 20.2, approximately 800,000 years ago. Experiments performed with an atmospheric general circulation model including water isotopes support its temperature interpretation. We assessed the general correspondence between Dansgaard-Oeschger events and their smoothed Antarctic counterparts for this Dome C record, which reveals the presence of such features with similar amplitudes during previous glacial periods. We suggest that the interplay between obliquity and precession accounts for the variable intensity of interglacial periods in ice core records.

The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)), the largest human contributor to human-induced climate change, is increasing rapidly. Three processes contribute to this rapid increase. Two of these processes concern emissions. Recent growth of the world economy combined with an increase in its carbon intensity have led to rapid growth in fossil fuel CO(2) emissions since 2000: comparing the 1990s with 2000-2006, the emissions growth rate increased from 1.3% to 3.3% y(-1). The third process is indicated by increasing evidence (P = 0.89) for a long-term (50-year) increase in the airborne fraction (AF) of CO(2) emissions, implying a decline in the efficiency of CO(2) sinks on land and oceans in absorbing anthropogenic emissions. Since 2000, the contributions of these three factors to the increase in the atmospheric CO(2) growth rate have been approximately 65 +/- 16% from increasing global economic activity, 17 +/- 6% from the increasing carbon intensity of the global economy, and 18 +/- 15% from the increase in AF. An increasing AF is consistent with results of climate-carbon cycle models, but the magnitude of the observed signal appears larger than that estimated by models. All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger-than-expected and sooner-than-expected climate forcing.

Abstract. We present Bedmap2, a new suite of gridded products describing surface elevation, ice-thickness and the seafloor and subglacial bed elevation of the Antarctic south of 60° S. We derived these products using data from a variety of sources, including many substantial surveys completed since the original Bedmap compilation (Bedmap1) in 2001. In particular, the Bedmap2 ice thickness grid is made from 25 million measurements, over two orders of magnitude more than were used in Bedmap1. In most parts of Antarctica the subglacial landscape is visible in much greater detail than was previously available and the improved data-coverage has in many areas revealed the full scale of mountain ranges, valleys, basins and troughs, only fragments of which were previously indicated in local surveys. The derived statistics for Bedmap2 show that the volume of ice contained in the Antarctic ice sheet (27 million km3) and its potential contribution to sea-level rise (58 m) are similar to those of Bedmap1, but the mean thickness of the ice sheet is 4.6% greater, the mean depth of the bed beneath the grounded ice sheet is 72 m lower and the area of ice sheet grounded on bed below sea level is increased by 10%. The Bedmap2 compilation highlights several areas beneath the ice sheet where the bed elevation is substantially lower than the deepest bed indicated by Bedmap1. These products, along with grids of data coverage and uncertainty, provide new opportunities for detailed modelling of the past and future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheets.

We present a new common stratigraphic timescale for the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) and GRIP ice cores. The timescale covers the period 7.9–14.8 kyr before present and includes the Bølling, Allerød, Younger Dryas, and early Holocene periods. We use a combination of new and previously published data, the most prominent being new high‐resolution Continuous Flow Analysis (CFA) impurity records from the NGRIP ice core. Several investigators have identified and counted annual layers using a multiparameter approach, and the maximum counting error is estimated to be up to 2% in the Holocene part and about 3% for the older parts. These counting error estimates reflect the number of annual layers that were hard to interpret, but not a possible bias in the set of rules used for annual layer identification. As the GRIP and NGRIP ice cores are not optimal for annual layer counting in the middle and late Holocene, the timescale is tied to a prominent volcanic event inside the 8.2 kyr cold event, recently dated in the DYE‐3 ice core to 8236 years before A. D. 2000 (b2k) with a maximum counting error of 47 years. The new timescale dates the Younger Dryas‐Preboreal transition to 11,703 b2k, which is 100–150 years older than according to the present GRIP and NGRIP timescales. The age of the transition matches the GISP2 timescale within a few years, but viewed over the entire 7.9–14.8 kyr section, there are significant differences between the new timescale and the GISP2 timescale. The transition from the glacial into the Bølling interstadial is dated to 14,692 b2k. The presented timescale is a part of a new Greenland ice core chronology common to the DYE‐3, GRIP, and NGRIP ice cores, named the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05). The annual layer thicknesses are observed to be log‐normally distributed with good approximation, and compared to the early Holocene, the mean accumulation rates in the Younger Dryas and Bølling periods are found to be 47 ± 2% and 88 ± 2%, respectively.

Several papers have described a significant trend toward the positive phase of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) in recent decades. The SAM is the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) so such a change implies a major shift in the broadscale climate of this hemisphere. However, the majority of these studies have used NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (NNR) data, which are known to have spurious negative trends in SH high-latitude pressure. Thus, given that the SAM describes the relative atmospheric anomalies at mid-and high southern latitudes, these errors in the NNR data have the potential to invalidate the published findings on changes in the SAM. Therefore, it is important that a ''true'' benchmark of trends in the SAM is available against which future climate scenarios as revealed through climate models can be examined.

The rapid expansion of human activities threatens ocean-wide biodiversity. Numerous marine animal populations have declined, yet it remains unclear whether these trends are symptomatic of a chronic accumulation of global marine extinction risk. We present the first systematic analysis of threat for a globally distributed lineage of 1,041 chondrichthyan fishes-sharks, rays, and chimaeras. We estimate that one-quarter are threatened according to IUCN Red List criteria due to overfishing (targeted and incidental). Large-bodied, shallow-water species are at greatest risk and five out of the seven most threatened families are rays. Overall chondrichthyan extinction risk is substantially higher than for most other vertebrates, and only one-third of species are considered safe. Population depletion has occurred throughout the world's ice-free waters, but is particularly prevalent in the Indo-Pacific Biodiversity Triangle and Mediterranean Sea. Improved management of fisheries and trade is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and promote population recovery. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00590.001.

CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y(-1) for 1990-1999 to >3% y(-1) for 2000-2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in the carbon intensity of energy have been recently observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the world's population) accounted for 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity.

Warming and Melting Mass loss from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica account for a large fraction of global sea-level rise. Part of this loss is because of the effects of warmer air temperatures, and another because of the rising ocean temperatures to which they are being exposed. Joughin et al. (p. 1172 ) review how ocean-ice interactions are impacting ice sheets and discuss the possible ways that exposure of floating ice shelves and grounded ice margins are subject to the influences of warming ocean currents. Estimates of the mass balance of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have differed greatly—in some cases, not even agreeing about whether there is a net loss or a net gain—making it more difficult to project accurately future sea-level change. Shepherd et al. (p. 1183 ) combined data sets produced by satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry to construct a more robust ice-sheet mass balance for the period between 1992 and 2011. All major regions of the two ice sheets appear to be losing mass, except for East Antarctica. All told, mass loss from the polar ice sheets is contributing about 0.6 millimeters per year (roughly 20% of the total) to the current rate of global sea-level rise.

Assessing Biodiversity Declines Understanding human impact on biodiversity depends on sound quantitative projection. Pereira et al. (p. 1496 , published online 26 October) review quantitative scenarios that have been developed for four main areas of concern: species extinctions, species abundances and community structure, habitat loss and degradation, and shifts in the distribution of species and biomes. Declines in biodiversity are projected for the whole of the 21st century in all scenarios, but with a wide range of variation. Hoffmann et al. (p. 1503 , published online 26 October) draw on the results of five decades' worth of data collection, managed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission. A comprehensive synthesis of the conservation status of the world's vertebrates, based on an analysis of 25,780 species (approximately half of total vertebrate diversity), is presented: Approximately 20% of all vertebrate species are at risk of extinction in the wild, and 11% of threatened birds and 17% of threatened mammals have moved closer to extinction over time. Despite these trends, overall declines would have been significantly worse in the absence of conservation actions.

Abstract We document the development of the first version of the U.K. Earth System Model UKESM1. The model represents a major advance on its predecessor HadGEM2‐ES, with enhancements to all component models and new feedback mechanisms. These include a new core physical model with a well‐resolved stratosphere; terrestrial biogeochemistry with coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles and enhanced land management; tropospheric‐stratospheric chemistry allowing the holistic simulation of radiative forcing from ozone, methane, and nitrous oxide; two‐moment, five‐species, modal aerosol; and ocean biogeochemistry with two‐way coupling to the carbon cycle and atmospheric aerosols. The complexity of coupling between the ocean, land, and atmosphere physical climate and biogeochemical cycles in UKESM1 is unprecedented for an Earth system model. We describe in detail the process by which the coupled model was developed and tuned to achieve acceptable performance in key physical and Earth system quantities and discuss the challenges involved in mitigating biases in a model with complex connections between its components. Overall, the model performs well, with a stable pre‐industrial state and good agreement with observations in the latter period of its historical simulations. However, global mean surface temperature exhibits stronger‐than‐observed cooling from 1950 to 1970, followed by rapid warming from 1980 to 2014. Metrics from idealized simulations show a high climate sensitivity relative to previous generations of models: Equilibrium climate sensitivity is 5.4 K, transient climate response ranges from 2.68 to 2.85 K, and transient climate response to cumulative emissions is 2.49 to 2.66 K TtC −1 .

Summary 1. We examined published studies relating resting oxygen consumption to body mass and temperature in post‐larval teleost fish. The resulting database comprised 138 studies of 69 species (representing 28 families and 12 orders) living over a temperature range of c. 40 °C. 2. Resting metabolic rate ( R b ; mmol oxygen gas h –1 ) was related to body mass ( M; wet mass, g) by R b = a M b , where a is a constant and b the scaling exponent. The model was fitted by least squares linear regression after logarithmic transformation of both variables. The mean value of scaling exponent, b, for the 69 individual species was 0·79 (SE 0·11). The general equation for all teleost fish was 1n R b = 0·80(1nM) – 5·43. 3. The relationship between resting oxygen consumption and environmental temperature for a 50‐g fish was curvilinear. A typical tropical fish at 30°C requires approximately six times as much oxygen for resting metabolism as does a polar fish at 0°C. This relationship could be fitted by several statistical models, of which the Arrhenius model is probably the most appropriate. The Arrhenius model for the resting metabolism of 69 species of teleost fish, corrected to a standard body mass of 50 g, was 1n R b = 15·7 – 5·02. T –1 , where T is absolute temperature (10 3 × K). 4. The Arrhenius model fitted to all 69 species exhibited a lower thermal sensitivity of resting metabolism (mean Q 10 = 1·83 over the range 0–30 °C) than typical within‐species acclimation studies (median Q 10 = 2·40, n = 14). This suggests that evolutionary adaptation has reduced the overall thermal sensitivity of resting metabolism across species. Analysis of covariance indicated that the relationships between resting metabolic rate and temperature for various taxa (orders) showed similar slopes but significantly different mean rates. 5. Analysis of the data for perciform fish provided no support for metabolic cold adaptation (the hypothesis that polar fish show a resting metabolic rate higher than predicted from the overall rate/temperature relationship established for temperate and tropical species). 6. Taxonomic variation in mean resting metabolic rate showed no relationship to phylogeny, although the robustness of this conclusion is constrained by our limited knowledge of fish evolutionary history.

The Reference Antarctic Data for Environmental Research (READER) project data set of monthly mean Antarctic near-surface temperature, mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) and wind speed has been used to investigate trends in these quantities over the last 50 years for 19 stations with long records. Eleven of these had warming trends and seven had cooling trends in their annual data (one station had too little data to allow an annual trend to be computed), indicating the spatial complexity of change that has occurred across the Antarctic in recent decades. The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a major warming over the last 50 years, with temperatures at Faraday/Vernadsky station having increased at a rate of 0.56 °C decade-1 over the year and 1.09 °C decade-1 during the winter; both figures are statistically significant at less than the 5% level. Overlapping 30 year trends of annual mean temperatures indicate that, at all but two of the 10 coastal stations for which trends could be computed back to 1961, the warming trend was greater (or the cooling trend less) during the 1961-90 period compared with 1971-2000. All the continental stations for which MSLP data were available show negative trends in the annual mean pressures over the full length of their records, which we attribute to the trend in recent decades towards the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) being in its high-index state. Except for Halley, where the trends are constant, the MSLP trends for all stations on the Antarctic continent for 1971-2000 were more negative than for 1961-90. All but two of the coastal stations have recorded increasing mean wind speeds over recent decades, which is also consistent with the change in the nature of the SAM. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05) is a time scale based on annual layer counting of high-resolution records from Greenland ice cores. Whereas the Holocene part of the time scale is based on various records from the DYE-3, the GRIP, and the NorthGRIP ice cores, the glacial part is solely based on NorthGRIP records. Here we present an 18 ka extension of the time scale such that GICC05 continuously covers the past 60 ka. The new section of the time scale places the onset of Greenland Interstadial 12 (GI-12) at 46.9±1.0 ka b2k (before year AD 2000), the North Atlantic Ash Zone II layer in GI-15 at 55.4±1.2 ka b2k, and the onset of GI-17 at 59.4±1.3 ka b2k. The error estimates are derived from the accumulated number of uncertain annual layers. In the 40–60 ka interval, the new time scale has a discrepancy with the Meese-Sowers GISP2 time scale of up to 2.4 ka. Assuming that the Greenland climatic events are synchronous with those seen in the Chinese Hulu Cave speleothem record, GICC05 compares well to the time scale of that record with absolute age differences of less than 800 years throughout the 60 ka period. The new time scale is generally in close agreement with other independently dated records and reference horizons, such as the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion, the French Villars Cave and the Austrian Kleegruben Cave speleothem records, suggesting high accuracy of both event durations and absolute age estimates.

Greenland's bed topography is a primary control on ice flow, grounding line migration, calving dynamics, and subglacial drainage. Moreover, fjord bathymetry regulates the penetration of warm Atlantic water (AW) that rapidly melts and undercuts Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers. Here we present a new compilation of Greenland bed topography that assimilates seafloor bathymetry and ice thickness data through a mass conservation approach. A new 150 m horizontal resolution bed topography/bathymetric map of Greenland is constructed with seamless transitions at the ice/ocean interface, yielding major improvements over previous data sets, particularly in the marine-terminating sectors of northwest and southeast Greenland. Our map reveals that the total sea level potential of the Greenland ice sheet is 7.42 ± 0.05 m, which is 7 cm greater than previous estimates. Furthermore, it explains recent calving front response of numerous outlet glaciers and reveals new pathways by which AW can access glaciers with marine-based basins, thereby highlighting sectors of Greenland that are most vulnerable to future oceanic forcing.

Based on observed atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and an inverse method, we estimate that the Southern Ocean sink of CO2 has weakened between 1981 and 2004 by 0.08 petagrams of carbon per year per decade relative to the trend expected from the large increase in atmospheric CO2. We attribute this weakening to the observed increase in Southern Ocean winds resulting from human activities, which is projected to continue in the future. Consequences include a reduction of the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink of CO2 in the short term (about 25 years) and possibly a higher level of stabilization of atmospheric CO2 on a multicentury time scale.

The climate of the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is the most rapidly changing in the Southern Hemisphere, with a rise in atmospheric temperature of nearly 3°C since 1951 and associated cryospheric impacts. We demonstrate here, for the first time, that the adjacent ocean showed profound coincident changes, with surface summer temperatures rising more than 1°C and a strong upper‐layer salinification. Initially driven by atmospheric warming and reduced rates of sea ice production, these changes constitute positive feedbacks that will contribute significantly to the continued climate change. Marine species in this region have extreme sensitivities to their environment, with population and species removal predicted in response to very small increases in ocean temperature. The WAP region is an important breeding and nursery ground for Antarctic krill, a key species in the Southern Ocean foodweb with a known dependence on the physical environment. The changes observed thus have significant ecological implications.

The last two abrupt warmings at the onset of our present warm interglacial period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cooling event, were investigated at high temporal resolution from the North Greenland Ice Core Project ice core. The deuterium excess, a proxy of Greenland precipitation moisture source, switched mode within 1 to 3 years over these transitions and initiated a more gradual change (over 50 years) of the Greenland air temperature, as recorded by stable water isotopes. The onsets of both abrupt Greenland warmings were slightly preceded by decreasing Greenland dust deposition, reflecting the wetting of Asian deserts. A northern shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone could be the trigger of these abrupt shifts of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes of 2 to 4 kelvin in Greenland moisture source temperature from one year to the next.

Abstract Ecosystem processes are important determinants of the biogeochemistry of the ocean, and they can be profoundly affected by changes in climate. Ocean models currently express ecosystem processes through empirically derived parameterizations that tightly link key geochemical tracers to ocean physics. The explicit inclusion of ecosystem processes in models will permit ecological changes to be taken into account, and will allow us to address several important questions, including the causes of observed glacial–interglacial changes in atmospheric trace gases and aerosols, and how the oceanic uptake of CO 2 is likely to change in the future. There is an urgent need to assess our mechanistic understanding of the environmental factors that exert control over marine ecosystems, and to represent their natural complexity based on theoretical understanding. We present a prototype design for a Dynamic Green Ocean Model (DGOM) based on the identification of (a) key plankton functional types that need to be simulated explicitly to capture important biogeochemical processes in the ocean; (b) key processes controlling the growth and mortality of these functional types and hence their interactions; and (c) sources of information necessary to parameterize each of these processes within a modeling framework. We also develop a strategy for model evaluation, based on simulation of both past and present mean state and variability, and identify potential sources of validation data for each. Finally, we present a DGOM‐based strategy for addressing key questions in ocean biogeochemistry. This paper thus presents ongoing work in ocean biogeochemical modeling, which, it is hoped will motivate international collaborations to improve our understanding of the role of the ocean in the climate system.