Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie

We analyze the impact of increased immigration on employment outcomes of natives in Germany using a data set of county-level variables for the late 1980s. In order to construct more unified labor market regions, we aggregate the 328 counties to 167 larger regions. We study two measures of immigration, the change in the share of foreigners between 1985 and 1989 as well as one-year gross and net flows of immigrants to an area. In order to address the potential problem of immigrant selection into local labor markets, we condition on previous labor market outcomes, which may serve as the basis of immigrant selection. This specification allows for mean reversion in the unemployment rate, which is strong in our data set and period of study. We show that this rules out some other approaches of identifying the impact of immigration. Our results indicate no detrimental effect of immigration. We find no support for the hypothesis that the absence of displacement effects is due to a response of native migration patterns.

In quantitativen Versuchen an 700 Ratten mit dem krebserregenden Farbstoff „Buttergelb" ergaben sich folgende Beziehungen zwischen der Dosis und der Wirkung: 1. Die Latenzzeit bis zum Auftreten der ersten Lebergeschwülste ist eine einfache Funktion der täglich gegebenen Dosis. 2. Zur Geschwulsterzeugung ist eine bestimmte Gesamtdosis „Buttergelb“ erforderlich, ohne Rücksicht darauf, über welche Zeit sie zwischen 34 Tagen und einem Jahr verteilt wird. Die Latenzzeit ist in diesem Bereich der Höhe der täglichen Dosis umgekehrt proportional. 3. Bei längerer Versuchsdauer, die sich über die ganze Lebenszeit der Ratten erstreckt, genügt sogar eine kleinere Gesamtdosis. Das deutet auf eine Zunahme der Krebs-Disposition im Alter hin. 4. Die Größe der zur Krebsauslösung notwendigen Gesamtdosis „Buttergelb“ kann als Maß für die Größe der vorhandenen Krebsdisposition dienen. 5. Die Streuung der Versuchsergebnisse ist mit nicht mehr als 10% auffällig gering. Daraus ergibt sich die Folgerung, daß zum Geschwulstwachstum eine Mindestzahl von erzeugten Krebszellen vorhanden sein muß. 6. Die Effekte auch der kleinsten Einzeldosen bleiben bei diesem Farbstoff über die ganze Lebenszeit der Ratten voll summationsfähig bestehen. 7. Da in dieser Zeit häufig Zellteilungen stattgefunden haben, müssen die gesetzten Effekte auf die Tochterzellen übertragen worden sein. Die Zellbestandteile, an denen die cancerogene Wirkung ansetzt, haben also die Fähigkeit zur Selbstproduktion, d. h. der Effekt ist erblich. 8. Nach den vorliegenden Ergebnissen bestehen zwischen krebsiger Entartung und genetischer „Mutation“ zumindest quantitative Unterschiede. 9. Der einfache reaktionskinetische Ansatz erweist sich für die Wirkung cancerogener Agenzien auf den fraglichen Zellbestandteil anwendbar. Er erklärt eine Reihe bisher unerklärbarer Phänomene zwanglos und führt zu weiteren klaren Problemstellungen. 10. Die „Treffertheorie“ wird auf den gleichen reaktionskinetischen Ansatz zurückgeführt. 11. Die krebserzeugende Wirkung unterliegt genau so bekannten physikalisch-chemischen Gesetzmäßigkeiten wie jede andere Wirkung auch. 12. Der Farbstoff „Buttergelb“ ist bei dauernder Zufuhr auch in kleinsten Dosen schädlich und deshalb als Lebensmittelfarbstoff abzulehnen.

Abstract We identify global and country‐specific measures of output growth uncertainty for a large OECD country sample by means of a dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility. We find evidence for major bouts of global uncertainty in the early 1970s and late 2000s, and a number of periods with elevated levels of either global or national uncertainty, particularly in the early 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. VAR impulse responses of national macroeconomic variables to our estimated measures of uncertainty reveal that global uncertainty is the major driver of macroeconomic performance in most countries, whereas the impact of national uncertainty is small and frequently insignificant. We also find that uncertainty is transmitted primarily through investment and trade flows rather than through consumption demand.

This study provides the first evidence of the subjective well-being impacts of low emission zones (LEZs) while also undertaking a comprehensive analysis of their air quality effects. We identify causal impacts by exploiting the zones’ introduction date with difference-in-differences designs robust to staggered implementations and time-varying treatment effects. Results show air quality improvements through reductions in traffic-related pollutants despite ground-level ozone increases and harmful spatial pollution spillovers. We further find that the zones cause transitory yet long-lasting reductions in individuals’ life satisfaction despite health benefits, suggesting that the subjective well-being effects of restricting mobility potentially outweigh those of improved health.

Abstract In January 2015, Germany introduced a federal, statutory minimum wage of 8.50 € per hour. This study evaluates the effects of this policy on regular and marginal employment and on welfare dependency. Based on the county-level administrative data, this study uses the difference-in-differences technique, exploiting regional variation in the bite of the minimum wage, i.e., the county-specific share of employees paid less than 8.50 € before the introduction of the minimum wage. The minimum wage had a considerable negative effect on marginal employment. There is also some indication that regular employment was slightly reduced. Concerning welfare dependency, the minimum wage reduced the number of working welfare recipients, with some indication that about one half of them left welfare receipt due to the minimum wage.

Die aktuelle Krise lässt vermuten, dass die Eurozone noch lange nicht die theoretischen Voraussetzungen für einen optimalen Währungsraum erfüllt. Demgegenüber sind die USA ein funktionierendes Währungsgebiet, obwohl sich wichtige wirtschaftliche Kennziffern zwischen den einzelnen Bundesstaaten deutlich unterscheiden. Allerdings wirken in den USA Ausgleichsmechanismen, die in der Eurozone nicht vorhanden sind.

This paper develops a time series model to forecast the growth in imports by major advanced economies in the current and following year (two to six quarters ahead). Both pure time series analysis and structural approaches that include additional predictors based on economic theory are used. Our results compare favourably with other trade forecasts, as measured by standard evaluation statistics and can serve as a benchmark for more complex macroeconomic models.

Using rich linked employer–employee data for (West) Germany between 1996 and 2014, we conduct a decomposition analysis based on recentered influence function (RIF) regressions to analyze the relative contributions of various plant and worker characteristics to the rise in German wage dispersion. Moreover, we separately investigate the sources of between‐plant and within‐plant wage dispersion. We find that industry effects and the collective bargaining regime contribute the most to rising wage inequality. In the case of collective bargaining, both the decline in collective bargaining coverage and the increase in wage dispersion among the group of covered plants have played important roles.

The economic performance of the European Union has taken on a new dimension in regard to the emerging “digital economy”. Usually, it is argued that the EU lags behind the United States in most aspects of the use and diffusion of information and communication technologies (ICT). This paper argues that there are serious challenges confronting the EU in dealing with the digital economy, especially in respect to education issues, consumer confidence and the avoidance of a “digital divide”. On the other hand it is pointed out that there has been tremendous progress in respect to the economic significance of electronic commerce, the development of (self-)regulatory mechanims and the creation of a modern policy framework.

Mit der Pilot-Ausschreibung „Ideen Lab 4.0“ ist die Osterreichische Forschungsforderungsgesellschaft (FFG) im Jahr 2018 neue Wege gegangen, um bereits in der Phase der Ideen- und Antragsentwicklung neue ProjektpartnerInnen zusammen zu bringen und die Co-Entwicklung anwendungsorientierter Vorhaben zu stimulieren. Die FFG eroffnete damit einen Experimentierraum fur eine neue Herangehensweise, um kooperative interdisziplinare Projekte durch die „Sandpit“-Methode zu fordern. Eine externe Evaluierung wurde begleitend durchgefuhrt. Der vorliegende Artikel gibt, erganzend zu der im Herbst 2019 fertig gestellten Evaluierung, Einblicke in die Programmentwicklung und Implementierung durch die FFG.

Die Gestaltung und Optimierung technischer Kundendienstleistungen, die kooperativ in Netzwerkstrukturen erbracht werden, gewinnt für viele Unternehmen an Bedeutung. Die dafür benötigte Messung, Bewertung und Rückkopplung erfolgskritischer Informationen unter Berücksichtigung der Anforderungen verschiedener Kooperationspartner spielt eine entscheidende Rolle für den Unternehmenserfolg. Tanja Klostermann zeigt exemplarisch am Technischen Kundendienst des Maschinenbaus, dass in Netzwerkstrukturen erbrachte technische Dienstleistungen ähnlich wie technische Prozesse durch die Anwendung eines Regelungssystems kontinuierlich optimiert und gesteuert werden können. Sie untersucht die Messung, Bewertung, Kontrolle und Optimierung kooperativ erbrachter Leistungsprozesse. Auf dieser Grundlage stellt die Autorin ein Lösungskonzept zur Entwicklung eines Regelungssystems für die Optimierung von Dienstleistungsprozessen vor und gibt Empfehlungen für deren kooperationsbasierte Gestaltung.

Crises, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can be an opportunity to re-think destination business models. Developing resilience can guide destinations through times of uncertainty and into innovative transformation. This study was a multi-method approach, in which exploratory interviews and the Delphi survey were vital for understanding multi-stakeholder involvement. This case study on Destination Franconia investigated the changes during the COVID-19 pandemic while considering the factors involved in developing a resilient destination business model. The results highlighted a mix of established values and innovations in business models, which included a “bounce-forward” ability, a resilience approach that accounted for continuous adaptation to disturbances and crises. Our findings showed that raising awareness through sharing information and a common destination strategy were essential to promote destination resilience. Finally, we introduced a threefold understanding of resilient destination development as change-driver, target, and competence.

The objective of this study was to assess the budget impact and health effects of introducing rotavirus (RV) vaccination in Saxony, Germany, from a health insurance perspective. Special emphasis is given to the herd effect. We analyzed direct medical and non-medical costs of RV infection for Social Health Insurance between 2007 and 2010 based on 360,000 routine data observations from the AOK PLUS for children below 5 years of age. We compared the actual annual number of RV cases (vaccination scenario) with the number derived from 2005 (no vaccination, base case scenario). The vaccination coverage rate has increased from 5% to 61% between 2007 and 2010. The number of RV cases decreased by 21% from 32,274 in 2007 to 25,614 in 2010. Based on vaccination coverage, the total cost savings per 1,000 children due to RV vaccination was estimated to be 39,686 Euros. The overall share of outpatient costs was 60%. Mean gross cost savings were expected to be 304 Euros per avoided case. The net cost savings were expected to be 19 Euros per avoided case. About 59% of total savings was due to herd protection resulting from increasing vaccine rates. The herd effect per avoided case increased with increasing vaccine coverage. Incidence of RV cases, vaccination costs and days absent from work were sensitive parameters. This retrospective analysis showed that the increase in RV vaccination coverage in Saxony has been budget neutral if not cost saving for sick funds.

Rational Legislation.

We quantify the importance of precautionary labour supply defined as the difference between hours supplied in the presence of risk and hours under perfect foresight. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel from 2001 to 2012, we estimate the effect of wage risk on labour supply and test for constrained adjustment of labour supply. We find that married men choose on average about 2.8% of their hours of work to shield against wage shocks. The effect is strongest for self-employed, who we find to be unconstrained in their hours choices, but also relevant for other groups with more persistent hours constraints. If the self-employed faced the same wage risk as the median civil servant, their hours of work would be reduced by 4.5%.

Gestützt auf 16 Empfehlungen sollten Anstrengungen gemacht werden, um folgendes Ziel zu erreichen: Bis 2025 ist die gesamte wissenschaftliche Publikationstätigkeit in Österreich auf Open Access umgestellt. Das bedeutet, dass alle wissenschaftlichen Publikationen, die aus Unterstützungen mit öffentlichen Mitteln hervorgegangen sind, ohne Zeitverzögerung und in der finalen Version im Internet frei zugänglich sind (Gold Open Access). Die notwendigen Mittel werden den AutorInnen zur Verfügung gestellt oder die Kosten der Publikationsorgane werden direkt von den Wissenschaftsorganisationen getragen.Gestützt auf 16 Empfehlungen sollten Anstrengungen gemacht werden, um folgendes Ziel zu erreichen: Bis 2025 ist die gesamte wissenschaftliche Publikationstätigkeit in Österreich auf Open Access umgestellt. Das bedeutet, dass alle wissenschaftlichen Publikationen, die aus Unterstützungen mit öffentlichen Mitteln hervorgegangen sind, ohne Zeitverzögerung und in der finalen Version im Internet frei zugänglich sind (Gold Open Access). Die notwendigen Mittel werden den AutorInnen zur Verfügung gestellt oder die Kosten der Publikationsorgane werden direkt von den Wissenschaftsorganisationen getragen.

Abstract The aim of the project SOEP-RV is to link data from participants in the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) survey to their individual Deutsche Rentenversicherung (German Pension Insurance) records. For all SOEP respondents who give explicit consent to record linkage, SOEP-RV creates a linked dataset that combines the comprehensive multi-topic SOEP data with detailed cross-sectional and longitudinal data on social security pension records covering the individual’s entire insurance history. This article provides an overview of the record linkage project, highlights potentials for analysis of the linked data, compares key SOEP and pension insurance variables, and suggests a re-weighting procedure that corrects for selectivity. It concludes with details on the process of obtaining the data for scientific use.

Given the current state of development of international investment law, it is surprising that, to date, neither the actual nature of the investor’s rights resulting from investment treaties, nor the possible consequences which arise for the investor, the states and international law, have been sufficiently defined. This is all the more astounding as the intrinsic nature and the possible limits of the investor’s rights are not only of theoretical interest, they are also decisive for the resolution of many substantial practical problems as well as for the positioning of international investment law within public international law. Furthermore, recent arbitration rulings concerning the fundamental question of whether the investor’s rights are of a direct, a derivative or a contingent nature, Archer Daniels (2007), Corn Products (2008) and Cargill (2009), demonstrate diametrically differing approaches. In this article, the author shows that neither the procedural nor material rights of the investor are simply derived from the home state but are – in clear contrast to the model of diplomatic protection – in fact to be understood as individual direct rights. The investor is elevated to the status of a (partial) subject in international law. Of course, the states are, and remain, the ‘masters of the treaties’ and can correct or even revoke them at any time with prospective effect. However, as long as investment treaties confer distinct rights on the investor, arbitral tribunals and states have to recognize these direct rights and the states must also accept that they can also be applied against them. The direct rights paradigm has varied and remarkable consequences for the investor, the states and modern public international law.

Despite political efforts, balancing work and family life is still challenging. This paper provides novel evidence on the effect of firm level interventions that seek to reduce the work–life conflict. The focus is on how childcare support affects the well-being, working time, and caring behaviour of mothers with young children. Since the mid-2000s and pushed by public policies, in Germany an increasing number of employers have become proactive and implemented more family-friendly workplaces. These changes over time allow us to suggest causal effects using a difference-in-differences-matching approach. Based on a large panel data set, we find evidence pointing to welfare enhancing effects of childcare support. Mothers who are likely to be constrained in their allocation of time especially increase their working time and use formal care more intensively. The rise in satisfaction levels is more pronounced if mothers are more career-orientated.

Anbau von Energiebiomasse zu forcieren. Das Fruchtfolgespektrum in Deutschland wurde dementsprechend in