Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center

Abstract Between 2003-2016, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) was one of the largest contributors to sea level rise, as it lost about 255 Gt of ice per year. This mass loss slowed in 2017 and 2018 to about 100 Gt yr −1 . Here we examine further changes in rate of GrIS mass loss, by analyzing data from the GRACE-FO (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment – Follow On) satellite mission, launched in May 2018. Using simulations with regional climate models we show that the mass losses observed in 2017 and 2018 by the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions are lower than in any other two year period between 2003 and 2019, the combined period of the two missions. We find that this reduced ice loss results from two anomalous cold summers in western Greenland, compounded by snow-rich autumn and winter conditions in the east. For 2019, GRACE-FO reveals a return to high melt rates leading to a mass loss of 223 ± 12 Gt month −1 during the month of July alone, and a record annual mass loss of 532 ± 58 Gt yr −1 .

A comprehensive database of paleoclimate records is needed to place recent warming into the longer-term context of natural climate variability. We present a global compilation of quality-controlled, published, temperature-sensitive proxy records extending back 12,000 years through the Holocene. Data were compiled from 679 sites where time series cover at least 4000 years, are resolved at sub-millennial scale (median spacing of 400 years or finer) and have at least one age control point every 3000 years, with cut-off values slackened in data-sparse regions. The data derive from lake sediment (51%), marine sediment (31%), peat (11%), glacier ice (3%), and other natural archives. The database contains 1319 records, including 157 from the Southern Hemisphere. The multi-proxy database comprises paleotemperature time series based on ecological assemblages, as well as biophysical and geochemical indicators that reflect mean annual or seasonal temperatures, as encoded in the database. This database can be used to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of Holocene temperature at global to regional scales, and is publicly available in Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format.

Abstract. Rapid changes in thickness and velocity have been observed at many marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland, impacting the volume of ice they export, or discharge, from the ice sheet. While annual estimates of ice-sheet-wide discharge have been previously derived, higher-resolution records are required to fully constrain the temporal response of these glaciers to various climatic and mechanical drivers that vary in sub-annual scales. Here we sample outlet glaciers wider than 1 km (N=230) to derive the first continuous, ice-sheet-wide record of total ice sheet discharge for the 2000–2016 period, resolving a seasonal variability of 6 %. The amplitude of seasonality varies spatially across the ice sheet from 5 % in the southeastern region to 9 % in the northwest region. We analyze seasonal to annual variability in the discharge time series with respect to both modeled meltwater runoff, obtained from RACMO2.3p2, and glacier front position changes over the same period. We find that year-to-year changes in total ice sheet discharge are related to annual front changes (r2=0.59, p=10-4) and that the annual magnitude of discharge is closely related to cumulative front position changes (r2=0.79), which show a net retreat of >400 km, or an average retreat of >2 km, at each surveyed glacier. Neither maximum seasonal runoff or annual runoff totals are correlated to annual discharge, which suggests that larger annual quantities of runoff do not relate to increased annual discharge. Discharge and runoff, however, follow similar patterns of seasonal variability with near-coincident periods of acceleration and seasonal maxima. These results suggest that changes in glacier front position drive secular trends in discharge, whereas the impact of runoff is likely limited to the summer months when observed seasonal variations are substantially controlled by the timing of meltwater input.

Abstract The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) performed comprehensive meteorological and aerosol measurements and ground-based atmospheric remote sensing at two Antarctic stations using the most advanced instrumentation available. A suite of cloud research radars, lidars, spectral and broadband radiometers, aerosol chemical and microphysical sampling equipment, and meteorological instrumentation was deployed at McMurdo Station on Ross Island from December 2015 through December 2016. A smaller suite of radiometers and meteorological equipment, including radiosondes optimized for surface energy budget measurement, was deployed on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet between 4 December 2015 and 17 January 2016. AWARE provided Antarctic atmospheric data comparable to several well-instrumented high Arctic sites that have operated for many years and that reveal numerous contrasts with the Arctic in aerosol and cloud microphysical properties. These include persistent differences in liquid cloud occurrence, cloud height, and cloud thickness. Antarctic aerosol properties are also quite different from the Arctic in both seasonal cycle and composition, due to the continent’s isolation from lower latitudes by Southern Ocean storm tracks. Antarctic aerosol number and mass concentrations are not only non-negligible but perhaps play a more important role than previously recognized because of the higher sensitivities of clouds at the very low concentrations caused by the large-scale dynamical isolation. Antarctic aerosol chemical composition, particularly organic components, has implications for local cloud microphysics. The AWARE dataset, fully available online in the ARM Program data archive, offers numerous case studies for unique and rigorous evaluation of mixed-phase cloud parameterization in climate models.

In the Southern Hemisphere, evidence for preindustrial atmospheric pollution is restricted to a few geological archives of low temporal resolution that record trace element deposition originating from past mining and metallurgical operations in South America. Therefore, the timing and the spatial impact of these activities on the past atmosphere remain poorly constrained. Here we present an annually resolved ice core record (A.D. 793-1989) from the high-altitude drilling site of Quelccaya (Peru) that archives preindustrial and industrial variations in trace elements. During the precolonial period (i.e., pre-A.D. 1532), the deposition of trace elements was mainly dominated by the fallout of aeolian dust and of ash from occasional volcanic eruptions, indicating that metallurgic production during the Inca Empire (A.D. 1438-1532) had a negligible impact on the South American atmosphere. In contrast, a widespread anthropogenic signal is evident after around A.D. 1540, which corresponds with the beginning of colonial mining and metallurgy in Peru and Bolivia, ∼240 y before the Industrial Revolution. This shift was due to a major technological transition for silver extraction in South America (A.D. 1572), from lead-based smelting to mercury amalgamation, which precipitated a massive increase in mining activities. However, deposition of toxic trace metals during the Colonial era was still several factors lower than 20th century pollution that was unprecedented over the entirety of human history.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet is losing mass at a significant rate, driven in part by increasing surface-melt-induced runoff. Because the ice sheet's surface melt is closely connected to changes in the surface albedo, studying multidecadal changes in the ice sheet's albedo offers insight into surface melt and associated changes in its surface mass balance. Here, we first analyse the CM SAF Cloud, Albedo and Surface Radiation dataset from AVHRR data second edition (CLARA-A2) Surface Albedo (SAL), covering 1982–2015, to obtain decadal albedo trends for each summer month. We also examine the rates of albedo change during the early summer, supported with atmospheric reanalysis data from MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2), to discern changes in the intensity of early summer melt, and their likely drivers. We find that rates of albedo decrease during summer melt have accelerated during the 2000s relative to the early 1980s and that the surface albedos now often decrease to values typical of bare ice at elevations 50–100 m higher on the ice sheet. The southern margins exhibit the opposite behaviour, though, and we suggest this is due to increasing snowfall over the area. We then subtract ice discharge from the mass balance estimates observed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission to estimate surface mass balance. The CLARA-A2 albedo changes are regressed with these data to obtain a summer-aggregated proxy surface mass balance time series for the summer periods 1982–2015. This proxy time series is compared with latest regional climate model estimates from the MAR model to perform an observation-based test on the dominance of surface runoff in the magnitude and variability of the summer surface mass balance. We show that the proxy time series agrees with MAR through the analysed period within the associated uncertainties of the data and methods, demonstrating and confirming that surface runoff has dominated the rapid surface mass loss period between the 1990s and 2010s. Finally, we extend the analysis to the drainage basin scale to examine discharge–albedo relationships. We find little evidence of surface-melt-induced ice flow acceleration at annual timescales.

Abstract Ice shelves regulate the ice‐ocean boundary by buttressing the flux of grounded ice into the ocean and are vulnerable to basal melt, which can lead to ice‐shelf thinning and loss of buttressing. Localized, enhanced basal melt can form basal channels, which may impact ice‐shelf stability. Here we investigate the evolution of the Getz Ice Shelf Basal Channel (GISBC) in West Antarctica using a novel suite of geophysical data, including Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica (REMA) digital elevation models, ICESat‐1 and ‐2 altimetry, Operation IceBridge altimetry and radar, and InSAR‐derived ice flow velocities. We describe basal‐channel and ice‐shelf change in both Eulerian and Lagrangian frameworks and document changes in the channel's shape and its lateral motion and estimate basal melting. We find a high degree of spatial and temporal variability in GISBC evolution, with several locations of active basal incision. Incision occurs at rates of up to 22 m a −1 at the head of the channel, which is extending toward the grounding line at a rate of ~1 km a −1 . Freeboard heights over areas of rapid basal incision are out of hydrostatic equilibrium. The GISBC is also migrating to the northwest, perpendicular to the northeasterly ice flow direction, at an average rate of 70–80 m a −1 . The spatiotemporal variability of evolution of the GISBC motivates further characterization of basal channels and their impact on ice‐shelf stability, so that these effects may more readily be incorporated in ice‐ocean models predicting ice flow and sea‐level rise.

Abstract Greenland glaciers exhibit variable seasonal velocity signals that may reflect differences in subglacial hydrology. Here, we conduct a first GrIS-wide glacier classification based on seasonal velocity patterns derived from 2017 Sentinel-1 radar data. Our classification focuses on two distinct seasonal ice velocity patterns, with the first (type-2 from Moon and others, 2014) showing periods of both speedup and slowdown during the melt season, and the second (type-3) instead showing a longer period of slowdown from elevated velocities in the winter and spring. We analyze 221 glaciers in 2017 and show that 48 exhibit type-2 behavior, and 72 exhibit type-3 behavior. We extend the classification to 2018 and 2019 and find that while the glaciers meeting each criterion vary year to year, type-2 is consistently more common in the northern regions and type-3 is more common in the south. Our results highlight the varied impact of meltwater on subglacial drainage systems and glacier flow in Greenland.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

The Arctic Ocean (AO) is being rapidly transformed by global warming, but its biodiversity remains understudied for many planktonic organisms, in particular for unicellular eukaryotes that play pivotal roles in marine food webs and biogeochemical cycles. The aim of this study was to characterize the biogeographic ranges of species that comprise the contemporary pool of unicellular eukaryotes in the AO as a first step toward understanding mechanisms that structure these communities and identifying potential target species for monitoring. Leveraging the Tara Oceans DNA metabarcoding data, we mapped the global distributions of operational taxonomic units (OTUs) found on Arctic shelves into five biogeographic categories, identified biogeographic indicators, and inferred the degree to which AO communities of unicellular eukaryotes share members with assemblages from lower latitudes. Arctic/Polar indicator OTUs, as well as some globally ubiquitous OTUs, dominated the detection and abundance of DNA reads in the Arctic samples. OTUs detected only in Arctic samples (Arctic-exclusives) showed restricted distribution with relatively low abundances, accounting for 10–16% of the total Arctic OTU pool. OTUs with high abundances in tropical and/or temperate latitudes (non-Polar indicators) were also found in the AO but mainly at its periphery. We observed a large change in community taxonomic composition across the Atlantic-Arctic continuum, supporting the idea that advection and environmental filtering are important processes that shape plankton assemblages in the AO. Altogether, this study highlights the connectivity between the AO and other oceans, and provides a framework for monitoring and assessing future changes in this vulnerable ecosystem.

Abstract. Physical and chemical properties of four different ice cores (LF-97, LF-08, LF-09 and LF-11) drilled at Lomonosovfonna, Svalbard, were compared to investigate the effects of meltwater percolation on the chemical and physical stratigraphy of these records. A synthetic ice core approach was employed as reference record to estimate the ionic relocation and meltwater percolation length at this site during the period 2007–2010. Using this method, a partial ion elution sequence obtained for Lomonosovfonna was NO3− > SO42−, Mg2+, Cl−, K+, Na+ with nitrate being the most mobile within the snowpack. The relocation length of most of the ions was on the order of 1 m during this period. In addition, by using both a positive degree day (PDD) and a snow–energy model approaches to estimate the percentage of melt at Lomonosovfonna, we have calculated a melt percentage (MP) of the total annual accumulation within the range between 48 and 70 %, for the period between 2007 and 2010, which is above the MP range suggested by the ion relocation evidenced in the LF-syn core (i.e., MP = 30 %). Using a firn-densification model to constrain the melt range, a MP of 30 % was found over the same period, which is consistent with the results of the synthetic ice core approach, and a 45 % of melt for the last 60 years. Considering the ionic relocation lengths and annual melt percentages, we estimate that the atmospheric ionic signal remains preserved in recently drilled Lomonosovfonna ice cores at an annual or bi-annual resolution when weather conditions were similar to those during the 2007–2010 period.

Abstract. The generation, transport, storage and drainage of meltwater play important roles in the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) subglacial system. Active subglacial lakes, common features in Antarctica, have recently been detected beneath the GrIS and may impact ice sheet hydrology. Despite their potential importance, few repeat subglacial lake filling and drainage events have been identified in Greenland. Here we examine the surface elevation change of a collapse basin at the Flade Isblink ice cap, northeast Greenland, which formed due to sudden subglacial lake drainage in 2011. We estimate the subglacial lake volume evolution using multi-temporal ArcticDEM data and ICESat-2 altimetry data acquired between 2012 and 2021. Our long-term observations show that the subglacial lake was continuously filled by surface meltwater, with the basin surface rising by up to 55 m during 2012–2021, and we estimate 138.2 × 106 m3 of meltwater was transported into the subglacial lake between 2012 and 2017. A second rapid drainage event occurred in late August 2019, which induced an abrupt ice dynamic response. We find that the 2019 drainage released much less water than the 2011 event and conclude that multiple factors, such as the volume of water stored in the subglacial lake and bedrock relief, regulate the episodic filling and drainage of the lake. By comparing the surface meltwater production and the subglacial lake volume change, we find that only ∼ 64 % of the surface meltwater descended to the bed, suggesting potential processes such as meltwater refreezing and firn aquifer storage, which need to be further quantified.

Abstract. Rapid changes in thickness and velocity have been observed at many marine-terminating glaciers in Greenland, impacting the volume of ice they export, or discharge, from the ice sheet. While annual estimates of ice-sheet wide discharge have been previously derived, higher-resolution records are required to fully constrain the temporal response of these glaciers to various climatic and mechanical drivers that vary in sub-annual scales. Here we derive the first continuous, ice-sheet wide record of total ice sheet discharge for the 21st century, resolving a seasonal variability of 6 %. The amplitude of seasonality varies spatially across the ice sheet from 5 % in the southeastern region to 9 % in the northwest region. We analyze seasonal to annual variability in the discharge time series with respect to both modelled meltwater runoff, obtained from RACMO2.3p2, and glacier front position changes over the same period. We find that year-to-year changes in total ice sheet discharge are related to annual front changes (r2 = 0.59, p = 10−4) and that the annual magnitude of discharge is closely related to cumulative front position changes (r2 = 0.79), which show a net retreat of > 400 km, or an average retreat of > 2 km at each surveyed glacier. Neither maximum seasonal runoff or annual runoff totals are correlated to annual discharge, which suggests that larger annual quantities of runoff do not relate to increased annual discharge. Discharge and runoff, however, follow similar patterns of seasonal variability, with near-coincident periods of acceleration and seasonal maxima. These results suggest that changes in glacier front position drive secular trends in discharge, whereas the impact of runoff is likely limited to the summer months when observed seasonal variations are substantially controlled by the timing of meltwater input.

Abstract. Harald Moltke Bræ, a marine-terminating glacier in north-western Greenland, shows episodic surges. A recent surge from 2013 to 2019 lasted significantly longer (6 years) than previously observed surges (2–4 years) and exhibits a pronounced seasonality with flow velocities varying by 1 order of magnitude (between about 0.5 and 10 m d−1) in the course of a year. During this 6-year period, the seasonal velocity always peaked in the early melt season and decreased abruptly when meltwater runoff was maximum. Our data suggest that the seasonality has been similar during previous surges. Furthermore, the analysis of satellite images and digital elevation models shows that the surge from 2013 to 2019 was preceded by a rapid frontal retreat and a pronounced thinning at the glacier front (30 m within 3 years). We discuss possible causal mechanisms of the seasonally modulated surge behaviour by examining various system-inherent factors (e.g. glacier geometry) and external factors (e.g. surface mass balance). The seasonality may be caused by a transition of an inefficient subglacial system to an efficient one, as known for many glaciers in Greenland. The patterns of flow velocity and ice thickness variations indicate that the surges are initiated at the terminus and develop through an up-glacier propagation of ice flow acceleration. Possibly, this is facilitated by a simultaneous up-glacier spreading of surface crevasses and weakening of subglacial till. Once a large part of the ablation zone has accelerated, conditions may favour substantial seasonal flow acceleration through seasonally changing meltwater availability. Thus, the seasonal amplitude remains high for 2 or more years until the fast ice flow has flattened the ice surface and the glacier stabilizes again.

Abstract. Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, has retreated and accelerated through the 21st century, raising concerns that it could be a significant contributor to future sea-level rise. We use a data-constrained ensemble of three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model simulations to estimate the likely range of sea-level rise from the continued retreat of Humboldt Glacier. We first solve for basal traction using observed ice thickness, bed topography, and ice surface velocity from the year 2007 in a PDE-constrained (partial differential equation) optimization. Next, we impose calving rates to match mean observed retreat rates from winter 2007–2008 to winter 2017–2018 in a transient calibration of the exponent in the power-law basal friction relationship. We find that power-law exponents in the range of 1/7–1/5 – rather than the commonly used 1/3–1 – are necessary to reproduce the observed speedup over this period. We then tune an iceberg calving parameterization based on the von Mises stress yield criterion in another transient-calibration step to approximate both observed ice velocities and terminus position in 2017–2018. Finally, we use the range of basal friction relationship exponents and calving parameter values to generate the ensemble of model simulations from 2007–2100 under three climate forcing scenarios from CMIP5 (two RCP8.5 forcings, Representative Concentration Pathway) and CMIP6 (one SSP5-8.5 forcing, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). Our simulations predict 5.2–8.7 mm of sea-level rise from Humboldt Glacier, significantly higher than a previous estimate (∼ 3.5 mm) and equivalent to a substantial fraction of the 40–140 mm predicted by ISMIP6 from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet. Our larger future sea-level rise prediction results from the transient calibration of our basal friction law to match the observed speedup, which requires a semi-plastic bed rheology. In many simulations, our model predicts the growth of a sizable ice shelf in the middle of the 21st century. Thus, atmospheric warming could lead to more retreat than predicted here if increased surface melt promotes hydrofracture of the ice shelf. Our data-constrained simulations of Humboldt Glacier underscore the sensitivity of model predictions of Greenland outlet glacier response to warming to choices of basal shear stress and iceberg calving parameterizations. Further, transient calibration of these parameterizations, which has not typically been performed, is necessary to reproduce observed behavior. Current estimates of future sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet could, therefore, contain significant biases.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Various ice bodies are an important source of paleoenvironmental data, and their study improves the understanding of present and future environmental conditions. Their changes are an important indicator of climate change. This special issue of Acta geographica Slovenica draws attention to the changing and disappearing cryosphere across the globe, with an emphasis on the southeastern Alps, and the necessity to conduct research in this field before the ice disappears forever. This paper briefly summarizes the current body of knowledge on glaciers, permafrost, cave ice, lake and river ice, and snow in the southeastern Alps, and it presents the contribution of Acta geographica Slovenica to this research and the main highlights of all five papers included in this special issue.

Calcium carbonate (CaCO<sub>3</sub>) encrustations occur in most desert soils, including polar ones, and such encrustations preserve records of geochemical, hydrological, and atmosphere processes affecting these soils. We have collected a series of CaCO3 encrustations found underneath surface rocks in the soils and tills of Taylor Valley, McMurdo Dry Valleys (~78°S lat.), Antarctica. These encrustations were analyzed for 87Sr/86S and δ18O and δ13C to determine what relation they have with the underlying soils, and the material in which they are in contact, and to identify the processes that control their formation. In all but one case, the isotopic data indicate that the source of Sr to these encrustations is not from the rock on which it is associated. The primary source of Sr (and by analogy Ca) is either from dust that has been deposited through aeolian processes or from the aggregate of till material within the soils. The δ13C values for Taylor Valley encrustations ranged from 5.7 to 11.0‰, and are consistent with a carbon source from atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>. The δ18O values range from –8.1 to –11.2‰ and are heavier than expected for equilibrium calcite precipitation from Taylor Valley meteoric water. Taken together these results indicate that the CaCO<sub>3</sub> was formed by rapid evaporation of films beneath clasts that had become supersaturated with respect to CaCO<sub>3</sub>.

Abstract River channels store large volumes of water globally, critically impacting ecological and biogeochemical processes. Despite the importance of river channel storage, there is not yet an observational constraint on this quantity. We introduce a 26‐year record of entirely remotely sensed volumetric channel water storage (CWS) change on 26 major world rivers. We find mainstem volumetric CWS climatology amplitude (CA) represents an appreciable amount of basin‐wide terrestrial water storage variability (median 2.78%, range 0.04%–12.54% across world rivers), despite mainstem rivers themselves represent an average of just 0.2% of basin area. We find that two global river routing schemes coupled with land surface models reasonably approximate CA (within ±50%) in only 11.5% (CaMa‐Flood) and 30.7% (HyMap) of rivers considered. These findings demonstrate volumetric CWS is a useful quantity for assessing global hydrological model performance, and for advancing understanding of spatial patterns in global hydrology.