Cancer Research UK Oxford Centre

IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.

BACKGROUND: The third edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3), which was published in 2000, introduced major changes in coding and classification of neoplasms, notably for leukemias and lymphomas, which are important groups of cancer types that occur in childhood. This necessitated a third revision of the 1996 International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC-3). METHODS: The tumor categories for the ICCC-3 were designed to respect several principles: agreement with current international standards, integration of the entities defined by newly developed diagnostic techniques, continuity with previous childhood classifications, and exhaustiveness. RESULTS: The ICCC-3 classifies tumors coded according to the ICD-O-3 into 12 main groups, which are split further into 47 subgroups. These 2 levels of the ICCC-3 allow standardized comparisons of the broad categories of childhood neoplasms in continuity with the previous classifications. The 16 most heterogeneous subgroups are broken down further into 2-11 divisions to allow study of important entities or homogeneous collections of tumors characterized at the cytogenetic or molecular level. Some divisions may be combined across the higher-level categories, such as the B-cell neoplasms within leukemias and lymphomas. CONCLUSIONS: The ICCC-3 respects currently existing international standards and was designed for use in international, population-based, epidemiological studies and cancer registries. The use of an international classification system is especially important in the field of pediatric oncology, in which the low frequency of cases requires rigorous procedures to ensure data comparability.

Published evidence suggests that aspects of trial design lead to biased intervention effect estimates, but findings from different studies are inconsistent. This study combined data from 7 meta-epidemiologic studies and removed overlaps to derive a final data set of 234 unique meta-analyses containing 1973 trials. Outcome measures were classified as "mortality," "other objective," "or subjective," and Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate associations of trial characteristics with average bias and between-trial heterogeneity. Intervention effect estimates seemed to be exaggerated in trials with inadequate or unclear (vs. adequate) random-sequence generation (ratio of odds ratios, 0.89 [95% credible interval {CrI}, 0.82 to 0.96]) and with inadequate or unclear (vs. adequate) allocation concealment (ratio of odds ratios, 0.93 [CrI, 0.87 to 0.99]). Lack of or unclear double-blinding (vs. double-blinding) was associated with an average of 13% exaggeration of intervention effects (ratio of odds ratios, 0.87 [CrI, 0.79 to 0.96]), and between-trial heterogeneity was increased for such studies (SD increase in heterogeneity, 0.14 [CrI, 0.02 to 0.30]). For each characteristic, average bias and increases in between-trial heterogeneity were driven primarily by trials with subjective outcomes, with little evidence of bias in trials with objective and mortality outcomes. This study is limited by incomplete trial reporting, and findings may be confounded by other study design characteristics. Bias associated with study design characteristics may lead to exaggeration of intervention effect estimates and increases in between-trial heterogeneity in trials reporting subjectively assessed outcomes.

Simulation studies use computer intensive procedures to assess the performance of a variety of statistical methods in relation to a known truth. Such evaluation cannot be achieved with studies of real data alone. Designing high-quality simulations that reflect the complex situations seen in practice, such as in prognostic factors studies, is not a simple process. Unfortunately, very few published simulation studies provide sufficient details to allow readers to understand fully all the processes required to design a simulation study. When planning a simulation study, it is recommended that a detailed protocol be produced, giving full details of how the study will be performed, analysed and reported. This paper details the important considerations necessary when designing any simulation study, including defining specific objectives of the study, determining the procedures for generating the data sets and the number of simulations to perform. A checklist highlighting the important considerations when designing a simulation study is provided. A small review of the literature identifies the current practices within published simulation studies.

BACKGROUND: Advanced biliary tract cancer has a poor prognosis. Cisplatin and gemcitabine is the standard first-line chemotherapy regimen, but no robust evidence is available for second-line chemotherapy. The aim of this study was to determine the benefit derived from second-line FOLFOX (folinic acid, fluorouracil, and oxaliplatin) chemotherapy in advanced biliary tract cancer. METHODS: as a 46-h continuous intravenous infusion). Randomisation was done following a minimisation algorithm using platinum sensitivity, serum albumin concentration, and stage as stratification factors. The primary endpoint was overall survival, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. Safety was also assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The study is complete and the final results are reported. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01926236, and EudraCT, 2013-001812-30. FINDINGS: Between March 27, 2014, and Jan 4, 2018, 162 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to ASC plus FOLFOX (n=81) or ASC alone (n=81). Median follow-up was 21·7 months (IQR 17·2-30·8). Overall survival was significantly longer in the ASC plus FOLFOX group than in the ASC alone group, with a median overall survival of 6·2 months (95% CI 5·4-7·6) in the ASC plus FOLFOX group versus 5·3 months (4·1-5·8) in the ASC alone group (adjusted hazard ratio 0·69 [95% CI 0·50-0·97]; p=0·031). The overall survival rate in the ASC alone group was 35·5% (95% CI 25·2-46·0) at 6 months and 11·4% (5·6-19·5) at 12 months, compared with 50·6% (39·3-60·9) at 6 months and 25·9% (17·0-35·8) at 12 months in the ASC plus FOLFOX group. Grade 3-5 adverse events were reported in 42 (52%) of 81 patients in the ASC alone group and 56 (69%) of 81 patients in the ASC plus FOLFOX group, including three chemotherapy-related deaths (one each due to infection, acute kidney injury, and febrile neutropenia). The most frequently reported grade 3-5 FOLFOX-related adverse events were neutropenia (ten [12%] patients), fatigue or lethargy (nine [11%] patients), and infection (eight [10%] patients). INTERPRETATION: The addition of FOLFOX to ASC improved median overall survival in patients with advanced biliary tract cancer after progression on cisplatin and gemcitabine, with a clinically meaningful increase in 6-month and 12-month overall survival rates. To our knowledge, this trial is the first prospective, randomised study providing reliable, high-quality evidence to allow an informed discussion with patients of the potential benefits and risks from second-line FOLFOX chemotherapy in advanced biliary tract cancer. Based on these findings, FOLFOX should become standard-of-care chemotherapy in second-line treatment for advanced biliary tract cancer and the reference regimen for further clinical trials. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, StandUpToCancer, AMMF (The UK Cholangiocarcinoma Charity), and The Christie Charity, with additional funding from The Cholangiocarcinoma Foundation and the Conquer Cancer Foundation Young Investigator Award for translational research.

Previous studies have suggested an association between exposure to 50-60 Hz magnetic fields (EMF) and childhood leukaemia. We conducted a pooled analysis based on individual records from nine studies, including the most recent ones. Studies with 24/48-hour magnetic field measurements or calculated magnetic fields were included. We specified which data analyses we planned to do and how to do them before we commenced the work. The use of individual records allowed us to use the same exposure definitions, and the large numbers of subjects enabled more precise estimation of risks at high exposure levels. For the 3203 children with leukaemia and 10 338 control children with estimated residential magnetic field exposures levels < 0.4 microT, we observed risk estimates near the no effect level, while for the 44 children with leukaemia and 62 control children with estimated residential magnetic field exposures >/= 0.4 microT the estimated summary relative risk was 2.00 (1.27-3.13), P value = 0.002). Adjustment for potential confounding variables did not appreciably change the results. For North American subjects whose residences were in the highest wire code category, the estimated summary relative risk was 1.24 (0.82-1.87). Thus, we found no evidence in the combined data for the existence of the so-called wire-code paradox. In summary, the 99.2% of children residing in homes with exposure levels < 0.4 microT had estimates compatible with no increased risk, while the 0.8% of children with exposures >/= 0.4 microT had a relative risk estimate of approximately 2, which is unlikely to be due to random variability. The explanation for the elevated risk is unknown, but selection bias may have accounted for some of the increase.

BACKGROUND: Few data exist on the comparative safety and immunogenicity of different COVID-19 vaccines given as a third (booster) dose. To generate data to optimise selection of booster vaccines, we investigated the reactogenicity and immunogenicity of seven different COVID-19 vaccines as a third dose after two doses of ChAdOx1 nCov-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca; hereafter referred to as ChAd) or BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNtech, hearafter referred to as BNT). METHODS: COV-BOOST is a multicentre, randomised, controlled, phase 2 trial of third dose booster vaccination against COVID-19. Participants were aged older than 30 years, and were at least 70 days post two doses of ChAd or at least 84 days post two doses of BNT primary COVID-19 immunisation course, with no history of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. 18 sites were split into three groups (A, B, and C). Within each site group (A, B, or C), participants were randomly assigned to an experimental vaccine or control. Group A received NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax; hereafter referred to as NVX), a half dose of NVX, ChAd, or quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine (MenACWY)control (1:1:1:1). Group B received BNT, VLA2001 (Valneva; hereafter referred to as VLA), a half dose of VLA, Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen; hereafter referred to as Ad26) or MenACWY (1:1:1:1:1). Group C received mRNA1273 (Moderna; hereafter referred to as m1273), CVnCov (CureVac; hereafter referred to as CVn), a half dose of BNT, or MenACWY (1:1:1:1). Participants and all investigatory staff were blinded to treatment allocation. Coprimary outcomes were safety and reactogenicity and immunogenicity of anti-spike IgG measured by ELISA. The primary analysis for immunogenicity was on a modified intention-to-treat basis; safety and reactogenicity were assessed in the intention-to-treat population. Secondary outcomes included assessment of viral neutralisation and cellular responses. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number 73765130. FINDINGS: Between June 1 and June 30, 2021, 3498 people were screened. 2878 participants met eligibility criteria and received COVID-19 vaccine or control. The median ages of ChAd/ChAd-primed participants were 53 years (IQR 44-61) in the younger age group and 76 years (73-78) in the older age group. In the BNT/BNT-primed participants, the median ages were 51 years (41-59) in the younger age group and 78 years (75-82) in the older age group. In the ChAd/ChAD-primed group, 676 (46·7%) participants were female and 1380 (95·4%) were White, and in the BNT/BNT-primed group 770 (53·6%) participants were female and 1321 (91·9%) were White. Three vaccines showed overall increased reactogenicity: m1273 after ChAd/ChAd or BNT/BNT; and ChAd and Ad26 after BNT/BNT. For ChAd/ChAd-primed individuals, spike IgG geometric mean ratios (GMRs) between study vaccines and controls ranged from 1·8 (99% CI 1·5-2·3) in the half VLA group to 32·3 (24·8-42·0) in the m1273 group. GMRs for wild-type cellular responses compared with controls ranged from 1·1 (95% CI 0·7-1·6) for ChAd to 3·6 (2·4-5·5) for m1273. For BNT/BNT-primed individuals, spike IgG GMRs ranged from 1·3 (99% CI 1·0-1·5) in the half VLA group to 11·5 (9·4-14·1) in the m1273 group. GMRs for wild-type cellular responses compared with controls ranged from 1·0 (95% CI 0·7-1·6) for half VLA to 4·7 (3·1-7·1) for m1273. The results were similar between those aged 30-69 years and those aged 70 years and older. Fatigue and pain were the most common solicited local and systemic adverse events, experienced more in people aged 30-69 years than those aged 70 years or older. Serious adverse events were uncommon, similar in active vaccine and control groups. In total, there were 24 serious adverse events: five in the control group (two in control group A, three in control group B, and zero in control group C), two in Ad26, five in VLA, one in VLA-half, one in BNT, two in BNT-half, two in ChAd, one in CVn, two in NVX, two in NVX-half, and one in m1273. INTERPRETATION: All study vaccines boosted antibody and neutralising responses after ChAd/ChAd initial course and all except one after BNT/BNT, with no safety concerns. Substantial differences in humoral and cellular responses, and vaccine availability will influence policy choices for booster vaccination. FUNDING: UK Vaccine Taskforce and National Institute for Health Research.

BACKGROUND: The design of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) should incorporate characteristics (such as concealment of randomised allocation and blinding of participants and personnel) that avoid biases resulting from lack of comparability of the intervention and control groups. Empirical evidence suggests that the absence of such characteristics leads to biased intervention effect estimates, but the findings of different studies are not consistent. OBJECTIVES: To examine the influence of unclear or inadequate random sequence generation and allocation concealment, and unclear or absent double blinding, on intervention effect estimates and between-trial heterogeneity, and whether or not these influences vary with type of clinical area, intervention, comparison and outcome measure. DATA SOURCES AND METHODS: Data were combined from seven contributing meta-epidemiological studies (collections of meta-analyses in which trial characteristics are assessed and results recorded). The resulting database was used to identify and remove overlapping meta-analyses. Outcomes were coded such that odds ratios < 1 correspond to beneficial intervention effects. Outcome measures were classified as mortality, other objective or subjective. We examined agreement between assessments of trial characteristics in trials assessed in more than one contributing study. We used hierarchical Bayesian bias models to estimate the effect of trial characteristics on average bias [quantified as ratios of odds ratios (RORs) with 95% credible intervals (CrIs) comparing trials with and without a characteristic] and in increasing between-trial heterogeneity. RESULTS: The analysis data set contained 1973 trials included in 234 meta-analyses. Median kappa statistics for agreement between assessments of trial characteristics were: sequence generation 0.60, allocation concealment 0.58 and blinding 0.87. Intervention effect estimates were exaggerated by an average 11% in trials with inadequate or unclear (compared with adequate) sequence generation (ROR 0.89, 95% CrI 0.82 to 0.96); between-trial heterogeneity was higher among such trials. Bias associated with inadequate or unclear sequence generation was greatest for subjective outcomes (ROR 0.83, 95% CrI 0.74 to 0.94) and the increase in heterogeneity was greatest for such outcomes [standard deviation (SD) 0.20, 95% CrI 0.03 to 0.32]. The effect of inadequate or unclear (compared with adequate) allocation concealment was greatest among meta-analyses with a subjectively assessed outcome intervention effect (ROR 0.85, 95% CrI 0.75 to 0.95), and the increase in between-trial heterogeneity was also greatest for such outcomes (SD 0.20, 95% CrI 0.02 to 0.33). Lack of, or unclear, double blinding (compared with double blinding) was associated with an average 13% exaggeration of intervention effects (ROR 0.87, 95% CrI 0.79 to 0.96), and between-trial heterogeneity was increased for such studies (SD 0.14, 95% CrI 0.02 to 0.30). Average bias (ROR 0.78, 95% CrI 0.65 to 0.92) and between-trial heterogeneity (SD 0.37, 95% CrI 0.19 to 0.53) were greatest for meta-analyses assessing subjective outcomes. Among meta-analyses with subjectively assessed outcomes, the effect of lack of blinding appeared greater than the effect of inadequate or unclear sequence generation or allocation concealment. CONCLUSIONS: Bias associated with specific reported study design characteristics leads to exaggeration of beneficial intervention effect estimates and increases in between-trial heterogeneity. For each of the three characteristics assessed, these effects were greatest for subjectively assessed outcomes. Assessments of the risk of bias in RCTs should account for these findings. Further research is needed to understand the effects of attrition bias, as well as the relative importance of blinding of patients, care-givers and outcome assessors, and thus separate the effects of performance and detection bias. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The dopamine D2 receptor has been extensively studied in relation to alcoholism, substance abuse, and nicotine dependence. The most frequently examined polymorphism linked to this gene is the Taq1A restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) (dbSNP rs1800497; g.32806C>T in GenBank AF050737.1), which has been associated with a reduction in D2 receptor density, although this is not universally accepted. The Taq1A RFLP lies 10 kB downstream of DRD2 and may therefore fall within a different coding region than the DRD2 gene or within a regulatory region. Within this downstream region, we have identified a novel kinase gene, named ankyrin repeat and kinase domain containing 1 (ANKK1), which contains a single serine/threonine kinase domain and is expressed at low levels in placenta and whole spinal cord RNA. This gene is a member of an extensive family of proteins involved in signal transduction pathways. The DRD2 Taq1A RFLP is a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) that causes an amino acid substitution within the 11th ankyrin repeat of ANKK1 (p.Glu713Lys), which, while unlikely to affect structural integrity, may affect substrate-binding specificity. If this is the case, then changes in ANKK1 activity may provide an alternative explanation for previously described associations between the DRD2 Taq1A RFLP and neuropsychiatric disorders such as addiction.

Reversible acetylation mediated by histone deacetylases (HDACs) influences a broad repertoire of physiological processes, many of which are aberrantly controlled in tumor cells. As HDAC inhibition prompts tumor cells to enter apoptosis, small-molecule HDAC inhibitors have been developed as a new class of mechanism-based anti-cancer agent, many of which have entered clinical trials. Although the clinical picture is evolving and the precise utility of HDAC inhibitors remains to be determined, it is noteworthy that certain tumor types undergo a favorable response, in particular hematological malignancies. Vorinostat and romidepsin have been approved for treating cutaneous T-cell lymphoma in patients with progressive, persistent or recurrent disease. Here, we discuss developments in our understanding of molecular events that underlie the anti-cancer effects of HDAC inhibitors and relate this information to the emerging clinical picture for the application of these inhibitors in the treatment of cancer.

Affymetrix U133plus2 GeneChips were used to profile 59 head and neck squamous cell cancers. A hypoxia metagene was obtained by analysis of genes whose in vivo expression clustered with the expression of 10 well-known hypoxia-regulated genes (e.g., CA9, GLUT1, and VEGF). To minimize random aggregation, strongly correlated up-regulated genes appearing in >50% of clusters defined a signature comprising 99 genes, of which 27% were previously known to be hypoxia associated. The median RNA expression of the 99 genes in the signature was an independent prognostic factor for recurrence-free survival in a publicly available head and neck cancer data set, outdoing the original intrinsic classifier. In a published breast cancer series, the hypoxia signature was a significant prognostic factor for overall survival independent of clinicopathologic risk factors and a trained profile. The work highlights the validity and potential of using data from analysis of in vitro stress pathways for deriving a biological metagene/gene signature in vivo.

Adequate consumption of folate may reduce the risk of colorectal cancer. We performed a meta-analysis of 7 cohort and 9 case-control studies that examined the association between folate consumption and colorectal cancer risk. In cohort studies, the association between folate consumption and colorectal cancer risk was stronger for dietary folate (folate from foods alone; relative risk for high vs. low intake = 0.75; 95% CI = 0.64-0.89) than for total folate (folate from foods and supplements; relative risk for high vs. low intake = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.81-1.11) and there was no significant heterogeneity between studies. There was significant heterogeneity between case-control studies. These results offer some support for the hypothesis that folate has a small protective effect against colorectal cancer but confounding by other dietary factors cannot be ruled out.

Epidemiological and experimental evidence implicates oestrogens in the aetiology of breast cancer. Most established risk factors for breast cancer in humans probably act through hormone-related pathways, and increased concentrations of circulating oestrogens have been found to be strongly associated with increased risk for breast cancer in postmenopausal women. This article explores the evidence for the hypothesis that oestrogen exposure is a major determinant of risk for breast cancer. We review recent data on oestrogens and breast cancer risk, consider oestrogen-related risk factors and examine possible mechanisms that might account for the effects of oestrogen. Finally, we discuss how these advances might influence strategies for reducing the incidence of breast cancer.

Epidemiological evidence indicates that the association between body weight and breast cancer risk may differ across menopausal status as well as the estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) tumor status. To date, no meta-analysis has been conducted to assess the association between body weight and ER/PR defined breast cancer risk, taking into account menopausal status and study design. We searched MEDLINE for relevant studies published from January 1, 1970 through December 31, 2007. Summarized risk estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using a random-effects model. The summarized results of 9 cohorts and 22 case-control studies comparing the highest versus the reference categories of relative body weight showed that the risk for ER+PR+ tumors was 20% lower (95% CI=-30% to -8%) among premenopausal (2,643 cases) and 82% higher (95% CI=55-114%) among postmenopausal (5,469 cases) women. The dose-response meta-analysis of ER+PR+ tumors showed that each 5-unit increase in body mass index (BMI, kg/m2) was associated with a 33% increased risk among postmenopausal women (95% CI=20-48%) and 10% decreased risk among premenopausal women (95% CI=-18% to -1%). No associations were observed for ER-PR- or ER+PR- tumors. For discordant tumors ER+PR- (pre) and ER-PR+ (pre/post) the number of cases were too small (<200) to interpret results. The relation between body weight and breast cancer risk is critically dependent on the tumor's ER/PR status and the woman's menopausal status. Body weight control is the effective strategy for preventing ER+PR+ tumors after menopause.

OBJECTIVES: Colonoscopy is central to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Success of CRC screening is dependent on colonoscopy quality. The NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) offers biennial faecal occult blood (FOB) testing to 60-74 year olds and colonoscopy to those with positive FOB tests. All colonoscopists in the screening programme are required to meet predetermined standards before starting screening and are subject to ongoing quality assurance. In this study, the authors examine the quality of colonoscopy in the NHS BCSP and describe new and established measures to assess and maintain quality. DESIGN: The NHS BCSP database collects detailed data on all screening colonoscopies. Prospectively collected data from the first 3 years of the programme (August 2006 to August 2009) were analysed. Colonoscopy quality indicators (adenoma detection rate (ADR), polyp detection rate, colonoscopy withdrawal time, caecal intubation rate, rectal retroversion rate, polyp retrieval rate, mean sedation doses, patient comfort scores, bowel preparation quality and adverse event incidence) were calculated along with measures of total adenoma detection. RESULTS: 2,269,983 individuals returned FOB tests leading to 36,460 colonoscopies. Mean unadjusted caecal intubation rate was 95.2%, and mean withdrawal time for normal procedures was 9.2 min. The mean ADR per colonoscopist was 46.5%. The mean number of adenomas per procedure (MAP) was 0.91; the mean number of adenomas per positive procedure (MAP+) was 1.94. Perforation occurred after 0.09% of procedures. There were no procedure-related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: The NHS BCSP provides high-quality colonoscopy, as demonstrated by high caecal intubation rate, ADR and comfort scores, and low adverse event rates. Quality is achieved by ensuring BCSP colonoscopists meet a high standard before starting screening and through ongoing quality assurance. Measuring total adenoma detection (MAP and MAP+) as adjuncts to ADR may further enhance quality assurance.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been successful in identifying common genetic variation involved in susceptibility to etiologically complex disease. We conducted a GWAS to identify common genetic variation involved in susceptibility to upper aero-digestive tract (UADT) cancers. Genome-wide genotyping was carried out using the Illumina HumanHap300 beadchips in 2,091 UADT cancer cases and 3,513 controls from two large European multi-centre UADT cancer studies, as well as 4,821 generic controls. The 19 top-ranked variants were investigated further in an additional 6,514 UADT cancer cases and 7,892 controls of European descent from an additional 13 UADT cancer studies participating in the INHANCE consortium. Five common variants presented evidence for significant association in the combined analysis (p ≤ 5 × 10⁻⁷). Two novel variants were identified, a 4q21 variant (rs1494961, p = 1×10⁻⁸) located near DNA repair related genes HEL308 and FAM175A (or Abraxas) and a 12q24 variant (rs4767364, p =2 × 10⁻⁸) located in an extended linkage disequilibrium region that contains multiple genes including the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) gene. Three remaining variants are located in the ADH gene cluster and were identified previously in a candidate gene study involving some of these samples. The association between these three variants and UADT cancers was independently replicated in 5,092 UADT cancer cases and 6,794 controls non-overlapping samples presented here (rs1573496-ADH7, p = 5 × 10⁻⁸); rs1229984-ADH1B, p = 7 × 10⁻⁹; and rs698-ADH1C, p = 0.02). These results implicate two variants at 4q21 and 12q24 and further highlight three ADH variants in UADT cancer susceptibility.

Abnormal epigenetic control is a common early event in tumour progression, and aberrant acetylation in particular has been implicated in tumourigenesis. One of the most promising approaches towards drugs that modulate epigenetic processes has been seen in the development of inhibitors of histone deacetylases (HDACs). HDACs regulate the acetylation of histones in nucleosomes, which mediates changes in chromatin conformation, leading to regulation of gene expression. HDACs also regulate the acetylation status of a variety of other non-histone substrates, including key tumour suppressor proteins and oncogenes. Histone deacetylase inhibitors (HDIs) are potent anti-proliferative agents which modulate acetylation by targeting histone deacetylases. Interest is increasing in HDI-based therapies and so far, two HDIs, vorinostat (SAHA) and romidepsin (FK228), have been approved for treating cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (CTCL). Others are undergoing clinical trials. Treatment with HDIs prompts tumour cells to undergo apoptosis, and cell-based studies have shown a number of other outcomes to result from HDI treatment, including cell-cycle arrest, cell differentiation, anti-angiogenesis and autophagy. However, our understanding of the key pathways through which HDAC inhibitors affect tumour cell growth remains incomplete, which has hampered progress in identifying malignancies other than CTCL which are likely to respond to HDI treatment.

The total incidence of childhood cancer varies rather little between different regions of the world, with cumulative risk to age 15 nearly always in the range 1.0-2.5 per thousand. Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, especially in early childhood, is most common in populations of high socio-economic status and is the most frequent childhood cancer in all industrialised countries. The risk of Burkitt's lymphoma is highest in tropical Africa and Papua New Guinea; it is strongly associated with Epstein-Barr virus infection and intense immune stimulation by malaria. Other lymphomas are also relatively common in developing countries. Non-heritable retinoblastoma has a higher incidence among less affluent populations, suggesting an association with poor living conditions and maybe an infectious aetiology. In contrast, the incidence of Wilms' tumour and Ewing's sarcoma varies largely on ethnic lines, indicating a strong role for genetic predisposition. Much of the variation in recorded incidence of brain tumours and neuroblastoma may be due to varying levels of case ascertainment. Recently the incidence of childhood Kaposi's sarcoma has risen substantially in parts of Africa severely affected by the AIDS epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Candidate human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines have demonstrated almost 90%-100% efficacy in preventing persistent, type-specific HPV infection over 18 mo in clinical trials. If these vaccines go on to demonstrate prevention of precancerous lesions in phase III clinical trials, they will be licensed for public use in the near future. How these vaccines will be used in countries with national cervical cancer screening programmes is an important question. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a transmission model of HPV 16 infection and progression to cervical cancer and calibrated it to Finnish HPV 16 seroprevalence over time. The model was used to estimate the transmission probability of the virus, to look at the effect of changes in patterns of sexual behaviour and smoking on age-specific trends in cancer incidence, and to explore the impact of HPV 16 vaccination. We estimated a high per-partnership transmission probability of HPV 16, of 0.6. The modelling analyses showed that changes in sexual behaviour and smoking accounted, in part, for the increase seen in cervical cancer incidence in 35- to 39-y-old women from 1990 to 1999. At both low (10% in opportunistic immunisation) and high (90% in a national immunisation programme) coverage of the adolescent population, vaccinating women and men had little benefit over vaccinating women alone. We estimate that vaccinating 90% of young women before sexual debut has the potential to decrease HPV type-specific (e.g., type 16) cervical cancer incidence by 91%. If older women are more likely to have persistent infections and progress to cancer, then vaccination with a duration of protection of less than 15 y could result in an older susceptible cohort and no decrease in cancer incidence. While vaccination has the potential to significantly reduce type-specific cancer incidence, its combination with screening further improves cancer prevention. CONCLUSIONS: HPV vaccination has the potential to significantly decrease HPV type-specific cervical cancer incidence. High vaccine coverage of women alone, sustained over many decades, with a long duration of vaccine-conferred protection, would have the greatest impact on type-specific cancer incidence. This level of coverage could be achieved through national coordinated programmes, with surveillance to detect cancers caused by nonvaccine oncogenic HPV types.

A total of 308,036 women were selected from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study to evaluate the association between tobacco smoking and the risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 3 (CIN3)/carcinoma in situ (CIS) and invasive cervical cancer (ICC). At baseline, participants completed a questionnaire and provided blood samples. During a mean follow-up time of 9 years, 261 ICC cases and 804 CIN3/CIS cases were reported. In a nested case-control study, the baseline sera from 609 cases and 1,218 matched controls were tested for L1 antibodies against HPV types 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 45, 52, 58, and antibodies against Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), and Human Herpes Virus 2 (HHV-2). Cervical samples were not available for HPV-DNA analysis in this study. Multivariate analyses were used to estimate associations between smoking and risk of CIN3/CIS and ICC in the cohort and the case-control studies. In the cohort analyses smoking status, duration and intensity showed a two-fold increased risk of CIN3/CIS and ICC, while time since quitting was associated with a two-fold reduced risk. In the nested case-control study, consistent associations were observed after adjustment for HPV, CT and HHV-2 serostatus, in both HPV seronegative and seropositive women. Results from this large prospective study confirm the role of tobacco smoking as an important risk factor for both CIN3/CIS and ICC, even after taking into account HPV exposure as determined by HPV serology. The strong beneficial effect of quitting smoking is an important finding that will further support public health policies for smoking cessation.