Civil Hospital Karachi

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative pathogen for the COVID-19, first emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and by March 2020, it was declared a pandemic. COVID-19 pandemic has overburdened healthcare systems in most countries and has led to massive economic losses. SARS-CoV-2 transmission typically occurs by respiratory droplets. The average incubation period is 6.4 days and presenting symptoms typically include fever, cough, dyspnea, myalgia or fatigue. While the majority of patients tend to have a mild illness, a minority of patients develop severe hypoxia requiring hospitalization and mechanical ventilation. Management is mostly supportive. However, several direct anti-viral agents, and immunomodulatory therapy with steroids and various cytokine blockers seem promising in early results. However, an effective vaccine has been established, which will help curb the pandemic.

Diabetes mellitus poses a substantial global health challenge, necessitating innovative approaches to improve patient outcomes. Conventional one-size-fits-all treatment strategies have shown limitations in addressing the diverse nature of the disease. In recent years, personalized medicine has emerged as a transformative solution, tailoring treatment plans based on individual genetic makeup, lifestyle factors, and health characteristics. This review highlights the role of genetic screening in predicting diabetes susceptibility and response to treatment, as well as the potential of pharmacogenomics in optimizing medication choices. Moreover, it discusses the incorporation of lifestyle modifications and behavioral interventions to empower patients in their health journey. Telemedicine and remote patient monitoring are also examined for their role in enhancing accessibility and adherence. Ethical considerations and challenges in implementing personalized medicine are addressed. The review envisions a future where personalized medicine becomes a cornerstone in diabetes management, ensuring improved patient outcomes and fostering more effective and patient-centric care on a global scale.

BACKGROUND: The lipoprotein(a) pathway is a causal factor in coronary heart disease. We used a genetic approach to distinguish the relevance of two distinct components of this pathway, apolipoprotein(a) isoform size and circulating lipoprotein(a) concentration, to coronary heart disease. METHODS: In this mendelian randomisation study, we measured lipoprotein(a) concentration and determined apolipoprotein(a) isoform size with a genetic method (kringle IV type 2 [KIV2] repeats in the LPA gene) and a serum-based electrophoretic assay in patients and controls (frequency matched for age and sex) from the Pakistan Risk of Myocardial Infarction Study (PROMIS). We calculated odds ratios (ORs) for myocardial infarction per 1-SD difference in either LPA KIV2 repeats or lipoprotein(a) concentration. In a genome-wide analysis of up to 17 503 participants in PROMIS, we identified genetic variants associated with either apolipoprotein(a) isoform size or lipoprotein(a) concentration. Using a mendelian randomisation study design and genetic data on 60 801 patients with coronary heart disease and 123 504 controls from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium, we calculated ORs for myocardial infarction with variants that produced similar differences in either apolipoprotein(a) isoform size in serum or lipoprotein(a) concentration. Finally, we compared phenotypic versus genotypic ORs to estimate whether apolipoprotein(a) isoform size, lipoprotein(a) concentration, or both were causally associated with coronary heart disease. FINDINGS: The PROMIS cohort included 9015 patients with acute myocardial infarction and 8629 matched controls. In participants for whom KIV2 repeat and lipoprotein(a) data were available, the OR for myocardial infarction was 0·93 (95% CI 0·90-0·97; p<0·0001) per 1-SD increment in LPA KIV2 repeats after adjustment for lipoprotein(a) concentration and conventional lipid concentrations. The OR for myocardial infarction was 1·10 (1·05-1·14; p<0·0001) per 1-SD increment in lipoprotein(a) concentration, after adjustment for LPA KIV2 repeats and conventional lipids. Genome-wide analysis identified rs2457564 as a variant associated with smaller apolipoprotein(a) isoform size, but not lipoprotein(a) concentration, and rs3777392 as a variant associated with lipoprotein(a) concentration, but not apolipoprotein(a) isoform size. In 60 801 patients with coronary heart disease and 123 504 controls, OR for myocardial infarction was 0·96 (0·94-0·98; p<0·0001) per 1-SD increment in apolipoprotein(a) protein isoform size in serum due to rs2457564, which was directionally concordant with the OR observed in PROMIS for a similar change. The OR for myocardial infarction was 1·27 (1·07-1·50; p=0·007) per 1-SD increment in lipoprotein(a) concentration due to rs3777392, which was directionally concordant with the OR observed for a similar change in PROMIS. INTERPRETATION: Human genetic data suggest that both smaller apolipoprotein(a) isoform size and increased lipoprotein(a) concentration are independent and causal risk factors for coronary heart disease. Lipoprotein(a)-lowering interventions could be preferentially effective in reducing the risk of coronary heart disease in individuals with smaller apolipoprotein(a) isoforms. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation, US National Institutes of Health, Fogarty International Center, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, and Pfizer.

Oral cancer is the second most common cancer in women and the third most common in men in Pakistan. Tobacco is smoked and chewed extensively in Pakistan. Paan is a quid of piper betel leaf that contains areca nut, lime, condiment, sweeteners, and sometimes tobacco, which is also used extensively. We did this study to clarify the independent association of paan and oral cancer. Between July 1996 and March 1998, we recruited biopsy-proven, primary cases of oral squamous-cell carcinoma, from 3 tertiary teaching centers in Karachi, Pakistan, and controls pair-matched for age, gender, hospital and time of occurrence, excluding persons with a past or present history of any malignancy. There were 79 cases and 149 controls. Approximately 68% of the cases were men, 49 years old on average, the youngest being 22 years old and the eldest 80. People with oral submucous fibrosis were 19.1 times more likely to develop oral cancer than those without it, after adjusting for other risk factors. People using paan without tobacco were 9.9 times, those using paan with tobacco 8.4 times, more likely to develop oral cancer as compared with non-users, after adjustment for other covariates. This study identifies an independent effect of paan without tobacco in the causation of oral cancer. Its findings may be of significance in South Asian communities where paan is used, and among health-care providers who treat persons from South Asia.

In recent years, Pakistan has emerged as one of the largest centres for commerce and tourism in renal transplantation. Kidney vendors belong to Punjab in eastern Pakistan, the agricultural heartland, where 34% people live below poverty line. We report results of a socioeconomic and health survey of 239 kidney vendors. The mean age was 33.6 +/- 7.2 years (M:F 3.5:1). Mean nephrectomy period was 4.8 +/- 2.3 years. Ninety per cent of the vendors were illiterate. Sixty-nine per cent were bonded labourers who were virtual slaves to landlords, labourers 12%, housewives 8.5% and unemployed 11%. Monthly income was $US15.4 +/- 8.9 with 2-11 dependents per family. Majority (93%), vended for debt repayment with mean debt of $1311.4 +/- 819. The mean agreed sale price was $1737 +/- 262. However, they received $1377 +/- 196 after deduction for hospital and travel expenses. Postvending 88% had no economic improvement in their lives and 98% reported deterioration in general health status. Future vending was encouraged by 35% to pay off debts and freedom from bondage. This study gives a snapshot of kidney vendors from Pakistan. These impoverished people, many in bondage, are examples of modern day slavery. They will remain exploited until law against bondage is implemented and new laws are introduced to ban commerce and transplant tourism in Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: To ascertain the preoperative anxiety level and different factors responsible in patients admitted for an elective surgical procedure in a tertiary care public hospital. METHODS: Anxiety levels were measured in admitted patients of the Civil Hospital, Karachi, Pakistan awaiting elective surgery from October to January 2006. In the afternoon preceding surgery, patients were asked to complete 2 visual analogue scales (VAS) regarding anxiety about the proposed surgery and anesthesia (range, 0 = `not anxious at all` to 100 = `extremely anxious`). They were then asked to select different factors responsible for their anxiety from a list. RESULTS: Mean anxiety score for surgery was 57.65+/-25.1 and for anesthesia was 38.14+/-26.05. There was a statistically significant high level of pre-operative anxiety in females as compared to males (p<0.01). The most common factors contributing to anxiety were concern about family in 173 (89.6%) patients, fear of complications in 168 (87%), results of operation in 159 (82.4%), and postoperative pain in 152 (78.8%). Fifty-six percent of patients thought that their anxiety would be lessened by a detailed explanation regarding the operation and anesthesia. CONCLUSION: Our patients experience very high levels of preoperative anxiety. This can be easily measured in the preoperative period and allows detection of patients with high anxiety, encouraging appropriate steps to ameliorate this. Establishment of preoperative counseling clinics and properly informed consent taken before surgery will help in reducing preoperative anxiety.

Background As of January 19, 2021, around two million fatalities and 68 million recoveries from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported around the globe. The past pandemics of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) hint toward a risk of occurrence of "Long-COVID" syndrome, i.e., the persistence of post-discharge symptoms among COVID-19 survivors. With the scarcity of literature addressing post-COVID-19 manifestations and little regard for the stigma associated with this disease, survivors' rehabilitation remains widely neglected. The current study aims to assess the prevalence and characteristics of post-COVID-19 manifestations and their effect on the quality of life (QoL) of COVID-19 recovered individuals. We have also analyzed the relationship of time since the recovery of COVID-19 and its severity with the post-discharge symptoms. The stigma affiliated with the infection of SARS coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has also been highlighted. Methodology A descriptive, cross-sectional, questionnaire-based study was conducted from September 2020 to December 2020 among 158 COVID-19 recovered patients, whose information was obtained from Dow Diagnostic Laboratory, Ojha Campus, Karachi, Pakistan. The questionnaire consisted of four sections: sociodemographic data, post-COVID-19 manifestations, questions relating to the stigma, and the QoL of the recovered COVID-19 patients. We used the EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire to assess the QoL, while the modified BG Prasad Socioeconomic Classification updated for 2019 was employed to determine the socioeconomic status of the participants. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 24.0 (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA). Data were presented in the form of frequencies and percentages. Results An overwhelming majority (94.9%) experienced at least one post-COVID-19 symptom, with fatigue (82.9%) being the most prevalent post-discharge manifestation. We observed a significant correlation of post-COVID-19 symptoms with gender, age, and time since recovery. COVID-19 severity was found to be significantly related to the five dimensions of the QoL. A significant difference in EuroQol Visual Analog Scale health score was observed between the participants with mild, moderate, and severe COVID-19 infection (p < 0.001). Besides, the associated stigma with SARS-CoV-2 infection was found to be more prevalent in the participants belonging to the upper class as compared to the other classes (p < 0.05). Nonetheless, we also observed a significant association of disease severity with post-COVID-19 manifestations and pre-existing comorbidities. Conclusions The long-COVID syndrome is similar to the post-discharge manifestations of the survivors of prior pandemics of SARS and MERS. Multi-disciplinary rehabilitation teams, healthcare workers, and the general population should recognize the need for systematic assessment of their recovery and further rehabilitation.

OBJECTIVE: Craniocerebral aspergillosis of sinonasal origin has been reported mainly in immunocompromised patients with high mortality, and it has been described very infrequently in immunocompetent hosts. This retrospective study focuses on clinical outcome in relation to anatomic locations of invasive aspergillosis of sinonasal origin in immunocompetent patients with emphasis on our preliminary experience with use of preoperative orally administered itraconazole. METHODS: Medical records of patients treated in two tertiary care hospitals from 1991 to 2003 were reviewed retrospectively. All patients had radiological evidence of disease in the paranasal sinuses with or without intracranial extension. The study cohort was divided into three types on the basis of area of involvement revealed by computed tomographic or magnetic resonance imaging scans of brain. All patients underwent surgical intervention and treatment with antifungal therapy. Preoperative orally administered itraconazole therapy was used in four patients on the basis of neuroradiological features. Clinical outcome was assessed with the Glasgow Outcome Scale, and univariate analysis of prognostic factors was performed with 95% confidence interval (P = 0.05). RESULTS: Mean patient age was 36.5 years (range, 14-74 yr) with a male preponderance (male-to-female ratio, 23:2). Nasal stuffiness (n = 13), headaches (n = 10), proptosis (n = 9), and nasal discharges (n = 7) were major presenting clinical features. Radiological data were obtained by computed tomographic (n = 25) and magnetic resonance imaging (n = 20) scans of the brain, and diagnoses were established by histopathological analysis (n = 20) or/and fungal cultures (n = 15). Preoperative orally administered itraconazole was given in four patients with intracerebral aspergillosis. Overall mortality was 28% and was highest in patients with Type 1 aspergillosis (66.7%). Type 3 aspergillosis and use of preoperative itraconazole remained statistically significant prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: Craniocerebral aspergillosis in immunocompetent hosts has three patterns of presentation that seem to correlate with clinical outcomes. Intracerebral aspergillosis (Type 1) is associated with the worst clinical outcome. Patients with orbital and cranial base aspergillosis (Type 3) had good recovery. Intracranial extradural aspergillosis (Type 2) remained intermediate on the Glasgow Outcome Scale. Preoperative orally administered itraconazole therapy may improve clinical outcome in patients with intracerebral aspergillosis. Prospective clinical studies are required to make firm clinical therapeutic recommendations.

Familial biparental hydatidiform mole (FBHM) is a maternal-effect autosomal recessive disorder in which recurrent pregnancy failure with molar degeneration occurs. The phenotype mimics molar pregnancy due to androgenesis, despite the normal genetic makeup of the conceptus. FBHM appears to result from a failure to establish correct maternal epigenetic identity at imprinted loci during oogenesis. Several women affected with FBHM have previously been shown to have biallelic mutations in the NLRP7 gene (NALP7). Here, we present the results of epigenetic and mutational analysis on FBHM patients from 11 families, 10 of them novel. We demonstrate a methylation defect at imprinted loci in tissue from four new FBHM cases. Biallelic NLRP7 mutations, including eight previously undescribed mutations, were found in all but one family. These results indicate for the first time that maternal imprints at some loci may be correctly specified in FBHM conceptions, since differential methylation of SGCE/PEG10 was preserved in all four cases.

Introduction As a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, health care professionals (HDPs) are facing immense strain due to the heavy load of cases. In many cases, they work increasingly long hours, often with limited resources and a dubious infrastructure. Thus, it is important to check on the mental health of caregivers. Methods and materials This cross-sectional study was conducted in May 2020, at various hospitals in Karachi, Pakistan. All HCPs posted in the COVID-19 isolation wards were invited to participate and a total of 112 completed this study. A carefully structured form was created, which included the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale-21 (DASS-21). Results The overall mean score of anxiety was 19.01 ± 9.2, depression was 18.12 ± 10, and stress was 20.12 ± 12.0. There were 81 (72.3%) participants who suffered from moderate to extremely severe depression, 96 ( 85.7%) participants who suffered from moderate to extremely severe anxiety, and 101 (90.1%) participants who reported moderate to extreme stress levels Conclusions It is evident that there are a high number of healthcare workers affected by various psychological ailments such as anxiety, stress, and depression. It is important that the government take steps to ensure that HCPs' mental health is regularly checked and that efforts are made to reduce their burdens.

BACKGROUND: To assess the incidence of high-risk population of medical students with eating disorders in Karachi by using validated self-administered questionnaires. The earlier these disorders are diagnosed and assessed, the better the chances are for enhanced treatment and fuller recovery. Therefore, we intended to undertake a study to find out the frequency of such disorders among medical students of Karachi and design strategies to overcome them. FINDINGS: A descriptive cross sectional study was conducted in 435 medical students of Karachi. Data was collected using 2 self administered questionnaires, the SCOFF Eating Disorders Questionnaire and the Eating Attitudes Test (EAT-26). Subjects' body mass indexes (BMI) were also calculated. The data was sorted and analyzed in SPSS version 16. According to EAT-26, 22.75% individuals were found to be at high-risk of eating disorders, with 87.9% females and 12.1% males. However, according to SCOFF questionnaire, 17% individuals were found to be at high-risk, with 78.4% females and 21.6% males. According to BMI calculation, 9% were severely underweight, 41.4% underweight, 41.1% normal, 7.6% overweight and 0.9% belonged to obese class 1. CONCLUSIONS: A significant fraction of medical students in Karachi are at high risk of development of eating disorders, females being more prone than males. Strategies should be designed to prevent occurrence of such disorders among medical students that would undoubtedly hamper the availability of dependable medical services in future.

Reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) on 24 cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens collected between February and August 1992 detected genome sequence of West Nile (WN) virus in 8 specimens and Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus in a single specimen. The results, combined with the data by IgM-ELISA on CSF indicated that a significant proportion of acute encephalitis cases in Karachi, Pakistan, were caused by WN virus infection, while JE virus caused a small fraction.

Purpose: To determine normal macular thickness and its variation by age and gender in healthy eyes using spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT).

Between 1996 and 2000, 90 newly diagnosed adult patients with T-acute lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL) were registered in the Gruppo Italiano Malattie Ematologiche dell'Adulto (GIMEMA) Leucemia Acuta Limfoide (LAL) 0496 protocol. Cases were centrally processed for morphology, immunophenotype, cytogenetics, molecular biology, and multidrug resistance (MDR). Twenty-two patients were females and 68 were males. Four percent of cases were pro-T, 47% pre-T, 39% cortical T, and 10% mature T-ALL. Fifty-six percent of patients with pro-T + pre-T-ALL achieved complete remission (CR) compared with 91% for cortical + mature cases (P = .002). CD34 expression was associated with a significantly lower CR rate: 54% versus 84% (P = .009). Thirty-one (36.5%) of 85 patients had an abnormal karyotype, the most common abnormality (15%) being a partial del(6q). The cytogenetic profile did not impact on CR achievement. MDR1 function, present in 26% of cases, correlated significantly with CR achievement (P = .004). A highly significant (P = .001) difference in CR rate was observed between patients who did not express the CD13/CD33/CD34 antigens and were MDR functionally negative (96%) compared with patients positive for at least one of these markers (57%). Multivariate analysis showed an impact on CR achievement for CD33 expression and MDR1 function. An extensive biologic workup of adult T-ALL cases at presentation is recommended in order to design tailored therapeutic strategies aimed at improving CR rates.

BACKGROUND: Perforation peritonitis is the most common surgical emergency encountered by the surgeons all over the world as well in Pakistan. The spectrum of etiology of perforation peritonitis in tropical countries continues to differ from its western counter part. This study was conducted at Dow University of health sciences and Civil Hospital Karachi (DUHS & CHK) Pakistan, designed to highlight the spectrum of perforation peritonitis in the East and to improve its outcome. METHODS: A prospective study includes three hundred consecutive patients of perforation peritonitis studied in terms of clinical presentations, Causes, site of perforation, surgical treatment, post operative complications and mortality, at (DUHS&CHK) Pakistan, from 1st September 2005 - 1st March 2008, over a period of two and half years. All patients were resuscitated underwent emergency exploratory laparotomy. On laparotomy cause of perforation peritonitis was found and controlled. RESULTS: The most common cause of perforation peritonitis noticed in our series was acid peptic disease 45%, perforated duodenal ulcer (43.6%) and gastric ulcer 1.3%. followed by small bowel tuberculosis (21%) and typhoid (17%). large bowel perforation due to tuberculosis 5%, malignancy 2.6% and volvulus 0.3%. Perforation due to acute appendicitis (5%). Highest number of perforations has seen in the duodenum 43.6%, ileum37.6%, and colon 8%, appendix 5%, jejunum 3.3%, and stomach 2.3%. Overall mortality was (10.6%). CONCLUSION: The spectrum of perforation peritonitis in Pakistan continuously differs from western country. Highest number of perforations noticed in the upper part of the gastrointestinal tract as compared to the western countries where the perforations seen mostly in the distal part. Most common cause of perforation peritonitis is perforated duodenal ulcer, followed by small bowel tuberculosis and typhoid perforation. Majority of the large bowel perforations are also tubercular. Malignant perforations are least common in our setup.

BACKGROUND: Malaria, a common health problem in certain parts of the world, has a considerable morbidity and mortality. This study reports its occurrence with a serious complication, acute renal failure (ARF), at a Third World tertiary care centre. METHODS: All registered patients with ARF who had history and clinical findings suggestive of malaria and had malarial parasites on peripheral blood smears were included in this study. The data on their modes of presentation, management and outcome have been analysed. RESULTS: Between January 1990 and December 1999, a total of 2098 patients with ARF were seen at the centre. Of these, 124 (5.9%) developed ARF due to malaria (falciparum in 121 and vivax in three). The male:female ratio was 4:1 and 84 (68%) patients were oligo- or anuric on presentation. Mean serum creatinine on admission was 9.43 +/- 5.39 mg/dl and 99 (79.8%) patients required renal replacement therapy. Of the cohort, 32 (25.8%) died, most within 48 h of admission. Age, oliguria, central nervous system involvement and presence of disseminated intravascular coagulopathy emerged as bad prognostic factors in simple univariate analysis. Of the survivors, 77 (62%) had complete recovery of renal function, while 15 (12%) were progressing towards recovery when lost to follow-up. The number of dialysis sessions did not differ significantly between the oliguric and non-oliguric groups. CONCLUSIONS: In patients who do not succumb early to ARF of severe malaria, treatment with antimalarials and dialysis brings about recovery of renal function.

The burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) is increasing at a greater rate in South Asia than in any other region globally, but there is little direct evidence about its determinants. The Pakistan Risk of Myocardial Infarction Study (PROMIS) is an epidemiological resource to enable reliable study of genetic, lifestyle and other determinants of CHD in South Asia. By March 2009, PROMIS had recruited over 5,000 cases of first-ever confirmed acute myocardial infarction (MI) and over 5,000 matched controls aged 30-80 years. For each participant, information has been recorded on demographic factors, lifestyle, medical and family history, anthropometry, and a 12-lead electrocardiogram. A range of biological samples has been collected and stored, including DNA, plasma, serum and whole blood. During its next stage, the study aims to expand recruitment to achieve a total of about 20,000 cases and about 20,000 controls, and, in subsets of participants, to enrich the resource by collection of monocytes, establishment of lymphoblastoid cell lines, and by resurveying participants. Measurements in progress include profiling of candidate biochemical factors, assay of 45,000 variants in 2,100 candidate genes, and a genomewide association scan of over 650,000 genetic markers. We have established a large epidemiological resource for CHD in South Asia. In parallel with its further expansion and enrichment, the PROMIS resource will be systematically harvested to help identify and evaluate genetic and other determinants of MI in South Asia. Findings from this study should advance scientific understanding and inform regionally appropriate disease prevention and control strategies.

Background Telemedicine is an affordable use of information and communication technology (ICT) to enable long-distance patient care and health care services. While the developed world continues to take advantage of this technology, its concept remains new to Pakistan. This study aims to assess the knowledge and perceptions regarding telemedicine among health care professionals in Karachi, Pakistan. Methods This cross-sectional study was carried out among doctors employed in the public health sector in Karachi from June 2018 to August 2018. Data were collected using a self-designed well-structured questionnaire using a five-point Likert scale, built after an extensive literature review. Statistical analysis was carried out using SPSS version 22. Categorical data were reported as frequencies and percentages. Results A total of 224 doctors, working in the Department of Internal Medicine (27.6%), Pediatrics (9.8%), Cardiology (6.6%), Gynecology (5.35%), Neurology (5.8%), and other specialties (44.6%), participated in the study. A total of 80.7 % of the doctors were aware of the definition of telemedicine. A total of 28.1% of them believed telemedicine to be effective in providing faster medical care while 23.2% thought of it as a means of reducing the white coat syndrome. A total of 42.9% believed that telemedicine disrupts the doctor-patient relationship and causes a breach of patient privacy. A total of 34.8% of the doctors favored the idea of introducing national standards for practicing telemedicine while 33.5% of doctors also agreed that providing a legal explanation of telemedicine to patients was of paramount importance. Poverty and lack of education (90.6%) was thought to be the biggest barrier to the practice of telemedicine in the developing world. Conclusions The knowledge regarding telemedicine among doctors in Karachi was found to be average. However, the perceptions about and attitude towards the introduction and implementation of this new technology were welcomed by the majority of participants with an emphasis on increasing awareness. Conferences and workshops are needed to increase knowledge about telemedicine in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: The current demographic trends indicate that breast cancer will pose an even greater public health concern in future for Pakistan. Details on the incidence, disease severity and mortality in respect of breast cancer are limited and without such data, therefore, future health policies or systems in respect of this disease cannot be strategically planned or implemented. The aim of this study was to examine past trends of age-specific breast cancer incidence rates (2004-2015), and to estimate the future volume of breast cancer cases in Karachi through the year 2025. METHODS: Two statistical methods, namely the functional time series models and the log-linear regression model were used; additionally, their real forecasting efficacy in epidemic time series was also evaluated. RESULTS: In the past, women aged 60-64 years had the highest overall breast cancer incidence rates, while from 2016 to 2025, large increases in breast cancer rates among women aged 50 to 64 years are expected. The total projected breast cancer incidence will increase by approximately 23.1% in 2020 to 60.7% in 2025. Cases of breast cancer diagnosed in younger women, aged 30-34 years, will increase from 70.7 to 130.6% in 2020 and 2025 relative to 2015. CONCLUSIONS: The breast cancer incidence appeared to have been rising more rapidly among post-menopausal women (aged 55 to 59), while a stable increase in incidence in the youngest age group (15-29 years) of women is expected. The results also infer an expected increase in incidence cases of breast cancer among middle aged women in Karachi, Pakistan. An increase in the number of incident cases of cancer has implications for understanding the health-care needs of growing population and the subsequent demands on health-care system.

The aim of this study was to determine rates and risks of Complicated Grief (CG) among psychiatric clinic patients in Karachi, Pakistan. The Inventory of Traumatic Grief, an early version of Inventory of Complicated Grief--Revised, was administered to 151 recently bereaved patients, with validated criteria applied to determine CG "caseness." Thirty-four percent of the sample met criteria for CG. Although violent deaths did not pose a heightened CG risk, gender and kinship to the deceased did significantly increase the likelihood of meeting of criteria for CG.