Community Coordinated Modeling Center

Abstract The January 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai eruption was one of the most explosive volcanic events of the modern era 1,2 , producing a vertical plume that peaked more than 50 km above the Earth 3 . The initial explosion and subsequent plume triggered atmospheric waves that propagated around the world multiple times 4 . A global-scale wave response of this magnitude from a single source has not previously been observed. Here we show the details of this response, using a comprehensive set of satellite and ground-based observations to quantify it from surface to ionosphere. A broad spectrum of waves was triggered by the initial explosion, including Lamb waves 5,6 propagating at phase speeds of 318.2 ± 6 m s −1 at surface level and between 308 ± 5 to 319 ± 4 m s −1 in the stratosphere, and gravity waves 7 propagating at 238 ± 3 to 269 ± 3 m s −1 in the stratosphere. Gravity waves at sub-ionospheric heights have not previously been observed propagating at this speed or over the whole Earth from a single source 8,9 . Latent heat release from the plume remained the most significant individual gravity wave source worldwide for more than 12 h, producing circular wavefronts visible across the Pacific basin in satellite observations. A single source dominating such a large region is also unique in the observational record. The Hunga Tonga eruption represents a key natural experiment in how the atmosphere responds to a sudden point-source-driven state change, which will be of use for improving weather and climate models.

Mechanisms that generate the field‐aligned current (FAC) systems in the magnetosphere‐ionosphere coupling scheme by virtue of the solar wind‐magnetosphere interaction are investigated with a three‐dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation. As a simulation scheme, the finite volume total variation diminishing (TVD) scheme on an unstructured grid system is employed for precise calculations of the ionospheric region. In the ionosphere, the divergence of the Pedersen and Hall currents is matched with FAC, mainly assuming uniform conductivity. The present calculation reproduces the traditional region 1 and 2 currents in the polar ionosphere, for both the northward and southward interplanetary magnetic fields (IMFs). The calculated magnitude of the region 1 current becomes large on the dayside, in agreement with observational results. For the northward IMF, NBZ currents that dominate the entire polar cap are obtained, with a maximum on the dayside. This current is totally absent in the southward IMF result. Corresponding to the FACs, the northward IMF results in multicell convection in the polar ionosphere, and the southward IMF results in two‐cell convection. On the evening side, the calculated region 1 currents flow almost along the field lines away from the Earth toward the magnetospheric low‐latitude boundary layer (LLBL), then flow up the magnetopause across the field lines to high latitudes. The region 1 currents in the morning side are similar but opposite in direction. In the noon‐midnight meridian ( xz ) plane, the main part of the region 1 current passes the tailward side of the cusp in the magnetosphere. The region 1 current converges to a very narrow region in the noon‐midnight meridian ( xz ) plane when the IMF is northward, whereas it passes the noon‐midnight meridian ( xz ) plane diverging to wide regions in the x direction when the IMF is southward. These differences are attributed to the efficient current‐driving effect ( J · E < 0) of the high‐latitude boundary layer (HLBL) for the southward IMF. The calculated region 2 currents on the evening (morning) side flow toward (away from) the Earth and close in the inner magnetosphere near the equator. The evening region 2 currents flow azimuthally from the inner boundary of the plasma sheet and show a sharp turn toward the Earth at the ring current region where strong drivers are distributed. For the northward IMF, the NBZ current that flows toward (away from) the evening (morning) polar cap ionosphere is connected with currents in the magnetotail. In the NBZ current loop, there is no remarkable driver or load ( J · E > 0). In the evening magnetosphere, the NBZ current that flows into the dayside ionosphere passes the low‐latitude side of the NBZ current that flows into the nightside ionosphere, then it turns aside to the outward (+ y ) direction and turns back before reaching the dayside ionosphere. Consequently, the dayside NBZ current flows from the low‐latitude side of the lobe, while the nightside NBZ current flows from the high‐latitude side of the lobe. Calculation assuming nonuniform ionospheric conductivity results in a wedge‐current‐like structure in the evening side. This result indicates that the current generated in the ionosphere cannot be ignored in the magnetosphere‐ionosphere current systems.

Abstract The explosive eruption of the Hunga‐Tonga volcano in the southwest Pacific at 0415UT on 15 January 2022 triggered gigantic atmospheric disturbances with surface air pressure waves propagating around the globe in Lamb mode. In space, concentric traveling ionosphere disturbances (CTIDs) are also observed as a manifestation of air pressure waves in New Zealand ∼0500UT and Australia ∼0630UT. As soon as the air pressure waves reached central Australia ∼0800UT, conjugate CTIDs appeared almost simultaneously in the northern hemispheres through interhemispheric coupling, much earlier than the arrival of the surface air pressure waves to Japan after 1100UT. Combining observations over Australia and Japan between 0800 and 1000UT, both direct and conjugate CTIDs show similar horizontal phase velocities of 320–390 m/s, matching with the dispersion relation of Lamb mode. The arrival of atmospheric Lamb wave to Japan later created in situ CTIDs showing the same Lamb mode characteristics as the earlier conjugate CTIDs.

Abstract The Tonga volcano eruption of 15 January 2022 unleashed a variety of atmospheric perturbations, coinciding with the recovery‐phase of a geomagnetic storm. The ensuing thermospheric variations created rare display of extreme poleward‐expanding conjugate plasma bubbles seen in the rate of total electron content index over 100–150°E, reaching ∼40°N geographic latitude. This is associated with fluctuations in FORMOSAT‐7/COSMIC‐2 (F7/C2) ion‐density measurements and spread‐F in ionograms. Preceding to this, an unusually strong pre‐reversal enhancement (PRE) occurred in the global ionospheric specification (GIS) electron density profiles derived from F7/C2 observations. The GIS also revealed a decrease of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest density due to the storm impact. Reduced E‐region conductivity by volcano‐induced waves and enhanced F‐region wind, further accelerated by reduced ion‐drag over the EIA, apparently intensified the PRE. Accompanied with the strong PRE, volcano‐induced seed perturbations triggered the super plasma bubble activity.

Abstract The ground‐based magnetometer index of Dst is a commonly used measure of near‐Earth current systems, in particular the storm time inner magnetospheric current systems. The ability of a large‐scale, physics‐based model to reproduce, or even predict, this index is therefore a tangible measure of the overall validity of the code for space weather research and space weather operational usage. Experimental real‐time simulations of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) are conducted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). Presently, two configurations of the SWMF are running in real time at CCMC, both focusing on the geospace modules, using the Block Adaptive Tree Solar wind‐type Roe Upwind Solver magnetohydrodynamic model, the Ridley Ionosphere Model, and with and without the Rice Convection Model. While both have been running for several years, nearly continuous results are available since April 2015. A 27‐month interval through July 2017 is used for a quantitative assessment of Dst from the model output compared against the Kyoto real‐time Dst. Quantitative measures are presented to assess the goodness of fit including contingency tables and a receiver operating characteristic curve. It is shown that the SWMF run with the inner magnetosphere model is much better at reproducing storm time values, with a correlation coefficient of 0.69, a prediction efficiency of 0.41, and Heidke skill score of 0.57 (for a −50‐nT threshold). A comparison of real‐time runs with and without the inner magnetospheric drift physics model reveals that nearly all of the storm time Dst signature is from current systems related to kinetic processes on closed magnetic field lines.

Abstract The Pulkkinen et al. (2013) study evaluated the ability of five different geospace models to predict surface d B /d t as a function of upstream solar drivers. This was an important step in the assessment of research models for predicting and ultimately preventing the damaging effects of geomagnetically induced currents. Many questions remain concerning the capabilities of these models. This study presents a reanalysis of the Pulkkinen et al. (2013) results in an attempt to better understand the models' performance. The range of validity of the models is determined by examining the conditions corresponding to the empirical input data. It is found that the empirical conductance models on which global magnetohydrodynamic models rely are frequently used outside the limits of their input data. The prediction error for the models is sorted as a function of solar driving and geomagnetic activity. It is found that all models show a bias toward underprediction, especially during active times. These results have implications for future research aimed at improving operational forecast models.

The physics of steady driven magnetic reconnection at Earth's subsolar magnetopause is addressed. Three‐dimensional, global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulations of the magnetopause are compared with analytical solutions of the resistive MHD equations [ Sonnerup and Priest , 1975 ] corresponding to magnetic field annihilation driven by an incompressible stagnation point flow. The simulations demonstrate that under steady southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions and when the plasma resistivity is spatially uniform, subsolar magnetopause reconnection occurs in long, thin Sweet‐Parker current sheets via a flux pileup mechanism [ Sonnerup and Priest , 1975 ; Priest and Forbes , 1986 ] (rather than in Petschek slow shock configurations). Magnetic energy piles up upstream of the magnetopause current sheet to accommodate the sub‐Alfvénic solar wind inflow. The scaling of the pileup with Lundquist number, S , is consistent (approximately ∝ S 1/4 ) with that predicted by the analytical, incompressible stagnation point flow solutions (though there are small corrections due to plasma compressibility in the simulations). Since there is a finite energy in the magnetosheath available to drive the magnetic pileup (and associated rapid magnetic reconnection), we expect the pileup to saturate and the reconnection rate to drop as the upstream plasma pressure drops to accommodate the pileup. Thus we expect the reconnection to stall, the rate vanishing in the limit S → ∞. We discuss the role of Hall electric fields in allowing the magnetic pileup to saturate before the reconnection begins to stall, permitting Alfvénic reconnection to occur in thin current sheets in the limit S → ∞.

In this paper the metrics‐based results of the inner magnetospheric magnetic field part of the 2008–2009 GEM Metrics Challenge are reported. The Metrics Challenge asked modelers to submit results for four geomagnetic storm events and five different types of observations that can be modeled by statistical or climatological or physics‐based (e.g., MHD) models of the magnetosphere‐ionosphere system. We present the results of 12 model settings that were run at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center and at the institutions of various modelers for these events. To measure the performance of each of the models against the observations, we use direct comparisons between the strength of the measured magnetic field ( B ), the sine of the elevation angle Θ xz ( τ ), and the spectral power of fluctuations for both quantities. We find that model rankings vary widely by type of variable and skill score used. None of the models consistently performs best for all events. We find that empirical models perform well for weak storm events, and physics‐based (magnetohydrodynamic) models are better for strong storm events. Within a series of runs of the same model we find that higher resolution may not always improve results unless more physics of the inner magnetosphere, such as the kinetic description of the ring current, is included.

Abstract Ground magnetic field variations can induce electric currents on long conductor systems such as high‐voltage power transmission systems. The extra electric currents can interfere with normal operation of these conductor systems; and thus, there is a great need for better specification and prediction of the field perturbations. In this publication we present CalcDeltaB, an efficient postprocessing tool to calculate magnetic perturbations Δ B at any position on the ground from snapshots of the current systems that are being produced by first‐principle models of the global magnetosphere‐ionosphere system. This tool was developed during the recent “d B /d t ” modeling challenge at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center that compared magnetic perturbations and their derivative with observational results. The calculation tool is separate from each of the magnetosphere models and ensures that the Δ B computation method is uniformly applied, and that validation studies using Δ B compare the performance of the models rather than the combination of each model and a built‐in Δ B computation tool that may exist. Using the tool, magnetic perturbations on the ground are calculated from currents in the magnetosphere, from field‐aligned currents between magnetosphere and ionosphere, and the Hall and Pedersen currents in the ionosphere. The results of the new postprocessing tool are compared with Δ B calculations within the Space Weather Modeling Framework model and are in excellent agreement. We find that a radial resolution of 1/30 R E is fine enough to represent the contribution to Δ B from the region of field‐aligned currents.

Abstract We present an updated global model of the solar corona, including the transition region. We simulate the realistic three-dimensional (3D) magnetic field using the data from the photospheric magnetic field measurements and assume the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) Alfvén wave turbulence and its nonlinear dissipation to be the only source for heating the coronal plasma and driving the solar wind. In closed-field regions, the dissipation efficiency in a balanced turbulence is enhanced. In the coronal holes, we account for a reflection of the outward-propagating waves, which is accompanied by the generation of weaker counterpropagating waves. The nonlinear cascade rate degrades in strongly imbalanced turbulence, thus resulting in colder coronal holes. The distinctive feature of the presented model is the description of the low corona as almost-steady-state low-beta plasma motion and heat flux transfer along the magnetic field lines. We trace the magnetic field lines through each grid point of the lower boundary of the global corona model, chosen at some heliocentric distance, R = R b ∼ 1.1 R ⊙ , well above the transition region. One can readily solve the plasma parameters along the magnetic field line from 1D equations for the plasma motion and heat transport together with the Alfvén wave propagation, which adequately describe the physics within the heliocentric distance range R ⊙ < R < R b , in the low solar corona. By interfacing this threaded-field-line model with the full MHD global corona model at r = R b , we find the global solution and achieve a faster-than-real-time performance of the model on ∼200 cores.

We study the performance of four magnetohydrodynamic models (BATS‐R‐US, GUMICS, LFM, OpenGGCM) in the Earth's magnetosphere. Using the Community Coordinated Modeling Center's Run‐on‐Request system, we compare model predictions with magnetic field measurements of the Cluster, Geotail and Wind spacecraft during a multiple substorm event. We also compare model cross polar cap potential results to those obtained from the Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) and the model magnetopause standoff distances to an empirical magnetopause model. The correlation coefficient (CC) and prediction efficiency (PE) metrics are used to objectively evaluate model performance quantitatively. For all four models, the best performance outside geosynchronous orbit is found on the dayside. Generally, the performance of models decreases steadily downstream from the Earth. On the dayside most CCs are above 0.5 with CCs for B x and B z close to 0.9 for three out of four models. In the magnetotail at a distance of about −130 Earth radii from Earth, the prediction efficiency of all models is below that of using an average value for the prediction with the exception of B z . B x is most often best predicted and correlated both on the dayside and the nightside close to the Earth whereas in the far tail the CC and PE for B z are substantially higher than other components in all models. We also find that increasing the resolution or coupling an additional physics module does not automatically increase the model performance in the magnetosphere.

Abstract The Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety climatological model and the Automated Radiation Measurements for Aerospace Safety (ARMAS) statistical database are presented as polynomial fit equations. Using equations based on altitude, L shell, and geomagnetic conditions an effective dose rate for any location from a galactic cosmic ray (GCR) environment can be calculated. A subset of the ARMAS database is represented by a second polynomial fit equation for the GCR plus probable relativistic energetic particle (REP; Van Allen belt REP) effective dose rates within a narrow band of L shells with altitudinal and geomagnetic dependency. Solar energetic particle events are not considered in this study since our databases do not contain these events. This work supports a suggestion that there may be a REP contribution having an effect at aviation altitudes. The ARMAS database is rich in Western Hemisphere observations for L shells between 1.5 and 5; there have been many cases of enhanced radiation events possibly related to effects from radiation belt particles. Our work identifies that the combined effects of an enhanced radiation environment in this L shell range are typically 15% higher than the GCR background. We also identify applications for the equations representing the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety and ARMAS databases. They include (i) effective dose rate climatology in comparison with measured weather variability and (ii) climatological and statistical weather nowcasting and forecasting. These databases may especially help predict the radiation environment for regional air traffic management, for airport overflight operations, and for air carrier route operations of individual aircraft.

This paper extends the domain of applicability of the Gosling‐McComas space weather forecast rule that applies to the postshock sheaths of fast coronal mass ejections at Earth (ICMEs). The rule is based on the draping of the sheath magnetic field around the ICME body. The original treatment considered only the radial‐from‐the‐Sun component of the preshock interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), which implied that the domain of applicability of the rule was the entire sheath region ahead of the leading face of the ICME. We show here that because of the generally prevailing Parker spiral orientation of the IMF, the domain of applicability of the rule is instead generally strongly shifted to the east side of the ICME sheath. We suggest that the eastward shift of the domain of applicability of the rule accounts for an observed greater geoeffectiveness of west hemisphere CMEs compared with east hemisphere CMEs. The approach used here to demonstrate the eastward shift of the region of potential ICME sheath geoeffectiveness, and thus to increase the accuracy of the forecast rule, is to present intensity contours of the geoeffective draping component of the IMF as computed by global MHD simulations. Since the shift depends only on a spiral magnetic field and a blunt object to drape it around, we demonstrate the generality of the principle on which the rule is based by treating both the case of the ICME and the case of Earth's magnetosphere.

Abstract This study presents the conjugate ionospheric disturbances triggered by the 2011 Tohoku‐Oki reflected tsunami oceanic waves using the ground‐based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) total electron content (TEC) observations. We found that the equatorward and westward propagating nighttime medium‐scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) occurred over Japan and Australia simultaneously following the tsunami oceanic waves reflected by the Emperor Seamount Chain in the northern hemisphere. The atmospheric gravity waves driven by reflected tsunami oceanic waves are hypothesized to be the source to trigger the conjugate MSTIDs by transporting the polarization electric fields along the field line to the conjugate hemisphere. Moreover, only the southwestward propagating MSTIDs have this conjugate effect, which could be due to the wavefront orientation. The Perkins instability could also be involved in the interhemispheric coupling process. This study provides the first observational evidence that the reflected tsunami can induce conjugate ionospheric disturbances through electrodynamic forcing.

Abstract On 21 January 2005, a moderate magnetic storm produced a number of anomalous features, some seen more typically during superstorms. The aim of this study is to establish the differences in the space environment from what we expect (and normally observe) for a storm of this intensity, which make it behave in some ways like a superstorm. The storm was driven by one of the fastest interplanetary coronal mass ejections in solar cycle 23, containing a piece of the dense erupting solar filament material. The momentum of the massive solar filament caused it to push its way through the flux rope as the interplanetary coronal mass ejection decelerated moving toward 1 AU creating the appearance of an eroded flux rope (see companion paper by Manchester et al. (2014)) and, in this case, limiting the intensity of the resulting geomagnetic storm. On impact, the solar filament further disrupted the partial ring current shielding in existence at the time, creating a brief superfountain in the equatorial ionosphere—an unusual occurrence for a moderate storm. Within 1 h after impact, a cold dense plasma sheet (CDPS) formed out of the filament material. As the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) rotated from obliquely to more purely northward, the magnetotail transformed from an open to a closed configuration and the CDPS evolved from warmer to cooler temperatures. Plasma sheet densities reached tens per cubic centimeter along the flanks—high enough to inflate the magnetotail in the simulation under northward IMF conditions despite the cool temperatures. Observational evidence for this stretching was provided by a corresponding expansion and intensification of both the auroral oval and ring current precipitation zones linked to magnetotail stretching by field line curvature scattering. Strong Joule heating in the cusps, a by‐product of the CDPS formation process, contributed to an equatorward neutral wind surge that reached low latitudes within 1–2 h and intensified the equatorial ionization anomaly. Understanding the geospace consequences of extremes in density and pressure is important because some of the largest and most damaging space weather events ever observed contained similar intervals of dense solar material.

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) was created in 2000 to allow researchers to remotely run simulations and explore the results through online tools. Since that time, over 10,000 simulations have been conducted at CCMC through their runs-on-request service. Many of those simulations have been event studies using global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the magnetosphere. All of these simulations are available to the general public to explore and utilize. Many of these simulations have had virtual satellites flown through the model to extract the simulation results at the satellite location as a function of time. This study used 662 of these magnetospheric simulations, with a total of 2503 satellite traces, to statistically compare the magnetic field simulated by models to the satellite data. Ratings for each satellite trace were created by comparing the root-mean-square error of the trace with all of the other traces for the given satellite and magnetic field component. The 1–5 ratings, with 5 being the best quality run, are termed “stars.” From these star ratings, a few conclusions were made: (1) Simulations tend to have a lower rating for higher levels of activity; (2) there was a clear bias in the Bz component of the simulations at geosynchronous orbit, implying that the models were challenged in simulating the inner magnetospheric dynamics correctly; and (3) the highest performing model included a coupled ring current model, which was about 0.15 stars better on average than the same model without the ring current model coupling.

Progress in space weather research and awareness needs community-wide strategies and procedures to evaluate our modeling assets. Here we present the activities of the Ambient Solar Wind Validation Team embedded in the COSPAR ISWAT initiative. We aim to bridge the gap between model developers and end-users to provide the community with an assessment of the state-of-the-art in solar wind forecasting. To this end, we develop an open online platform for validating solar wind models by comparing their solutions with in situ spacecraft measurements. The online platform will allow the space weather community to test the quality of state-of-the-art solar wind models with unified metrics providing an unbiased assessment of progress over time. In this study, we propose a metadata architecture and recommend community-wide forecasting goals and validation metrics. We conclude with a status update of the online platform and outline future perspectives.

The January 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption was one of the most explosive volcanic events of the modern era, producing a vertical plume which peaked > 50km above the Earth. The initial explosion and subsequent plume triggered atmospheric waves which propagated around the world multiple times. A global-scale wave response of this magnitude from a single source has not previously been observed. Here we show the details of this response, using a comprehensive set of satellite and ground-based observations to quantify it from surface to ionosphere. A broad spectrum of waves was triggered by the initial explosion, including Lamb waves5,6 propagating at phase speeds of 318.2+/-6 ms-1 at surface level and between 308+/-5 to 319+/-4 ms-1 in the stratosphere, and gravity waves propagating at 238+/-3 to 269+/-3 ms-1 in the stratosphere. Gravity waves at sub-ionospheric heights have not previously been observed propagating at this speed or over the whole Earth from a single source. Latent heat release from the plume remained the most significant individual gravity wave source worldwide for >12 hours, producing circular wavefronts visible across the Pacific basin in satellite observations. A single source dominating such a large region is also unique in the observational record. The Hunga Tonga eruption represents a key natural experiment in how the atmosphere responds to a sudden point-source-driven state change, which will be of use for improving weather and climate models.

Abstract Automated detection schemes are nowadays the standard approach for locating coronal holes in extreme-UV images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). However, factors such as the noisy nature of solar imagery, instrumental effects, and others make it challenging to identify coronal holes using these automated schemes. While discrepancies between detection schemes have been noted in the literature, a comprehensive assessment of these discrepancies is still lacking. The contribution of the Coronal Hole Boundary Working Team in the COSPAR ISWAT initiative to close this gap is threefold. First, we present the first community data set for comparing automated coronal hole detection schemes. This data set consists of 29 SDO images, all of which were selected by experienced observers to challenge automated schemes. Second, we use this community data set as input to 14 widely applied automated schemes to study coronal holes and collect their detection results. Third, we study three SDO images from the data set that exemplify the most important lessons learned from this effort. Our findings show that the choice of the automated detection scheme can have a significant effect on the physical properties of coronal holes, and we discuss the implications of these findings for open questions in solar and heliospheric physics. We envision that this community data set will serve the scientific community as a benchmark data set for future developments in the field.

Abstract It is well‐known that equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs) are highly correlated to the post‐sunset rise of the ionosphere on a climatological basis. However, when proceeding to the daily EPB development, what controls the day‐to‐day/longitudinal variability of EPBs remains a puzzle. In this study, we investigate the underlying physics responsible for the day‐to‐day/longitudinal variability of EPBs using the Sami3 is A Model of the Ionosphere (SAMI3) and the Specified Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere‐ionosphere eXtension (SD‐WACCM‐X). Simulation results on October 20, 22, and 24, 2020 were presented. SAMI3/SD‐WACCM‐X self‐consistently generated midnight EPBs on October 20 and 24, displaying irregular and regular spatial distributions, respectively. However, EPBs are absent on October 22. We investigate the role of gravity waves on upwelling growth and EPB development and discuss how gravity waves contribute to the distributions of EPBs. We found the westward wind associated with solar terminator waves and gravity waves induces polarization electric fields that map to the equatorial ionosphere from higher latitudes, resulting in midnight vertical drift enhancement and retrograde plasma flow. The upward vertical drift and retrograde flow further lead to shear flow instability and midnight plasma vortex, creating background conditions identical to the post‐sunset ionosphere. This provides conditions favorable for the upwelling growth and EPB development. The converging and diverging winds associated with solar terminator waves and midnight temperature maximum also affect the longitudinal distribution of EPBs. The absence of EPBs on October 22 is related to the weak westward wind associated with solar terminator waves.