Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics

, water, and energy exchange between the biosphere and the atmosphere, and other meteorological and biological measurements, from 212 sites around the globe (over 1500 site-years, up to and including year 2014). These sites, independently managed and operated, voluntarily contributed their data to create global datasets. Data were quality controlled and processed using uniform methods, to improve consistency and intercomparability across sites. The dataset is already being used in a number of applications, including ecophysiology studies, remote sensing studies, and development of ecosystem and Earth system models. FLUXNET2015 includes derived-data products, such as gap-filled time series, ecosystem respiration and photosynthetic uptake estimates, estimation of uncertainties, and metadata about the measurements, presented for the first time in this paper. In addition, 206 of these sites are for the first time distributed under a Creative Commons (CC-BY 4.0) license. This paper details this enhanced dataset and the processing methods, now made available as open-source codes, making the dataset more accessible, transparent, and reproducible.

BACKGROUND: The systematic evaluation of the results of time-series studies of air pollution is challenged by differences in model specification and publication bias. METHODS: ) with daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality across multiple countries or regions. Daily data on mortality and air pollution were collected from 652 cities in 24 countries or regions. We used overdispersed generalized additive models with random-effects meta-analysis to investigate the associations. Two-pollutant models were fitted to test the robustness of the associations. Concentration-response curves from each city were pooled to allow global estimates to be derived. RESULTS: concentration were 0.68% (95% CI, 0.59 to 0.77), 0.55% (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.66), and 0.74% (95% CI, 0.53 to 0.95). These associations remained significant after adjustment for gaseous pollutants. Associations were stronger in locations with lower annual mean PM concentrations and higher annual mean temperatures. The pooled concentration-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily mortality with increasing PM concentration, with steeper slopes at lower PM concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: and daily all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality in more than 600 cities across the globe. These data reinforce the evidence of a link between mortality and PM concentration established in regional and local studies. (Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and others.).

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. Current and future climate change is expected to impact human health, both indirectly and directly, through increasing temperatures. Climate change has already had an impact and is responsible for 37% of warm-season heat-related deaths between 1991 and 2018, with increases in mortality observed globally.

The Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) investigation on the NASA Radiation Belt Storm Probes (now named the Van Allen Probes) mission provides key wave and very low frequency magnetic field measurements to understand radiation belt acceleration, loss, and transport. The key science objectives and the contribution that EMFISIS makes to providing measurements as well as theory and modeling are described. The key components of the instruments suite, both electronics and sensors,

Abstract The paper presents the latest version of the International Reference Ionosphere model (IRI‐2016) describing the most important changes and improvements that were included with this version and discussing their impact on the IRI predictions of ionospheric parameters. IRI‐2016 includes two new model options for the F 2 peak height h m F 2 and a better representation of topside ion densities at very low and high solar activities. In addition, a number of smaller changes were made concerning the use of solar indices and the speedup of the computer program. We also review the latest developments toward a Real‐Time IRI. The goal is to progress from predicting climatology to describing the real‐time weather conditions in the ionosphere.

The spectrum of atmospheric turbulence is very broad by comparison with spectra in wind tunnels. We introduce the notion of small-scale and large-scale turbulence. Small-scale turbulence consists of a set of disturbances, the scales of which do not exceed the distance to the wall and for which the hypothesis of three-dimensional isotropy is valid in a certain rough approximation. Large-scale turbulence is essentially anisotropic; the horizontal scale in the atmosphere is much larger than the vertical one, the latter being confined to a certain characteristic height H . The horizontal scale varies widely according to the external conditions and characteristics of the medium.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. FINDINGS: Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. INTERPRETATION: Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. FUNDING: Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

BACKGROUND: Climate change can directly affect human health by varying exposure to non-optimal outdoor temperature. However, evidence on this direct impact at a global scale is limited, mainly due to issues in modelling and projecting complex and highly heterogeneous epidemiological relationships across different populations and climates. METHODS: We collected observed daily time series of mean temperature and mortality counts for all causes or non-external causes only, in periods ranging from Jan 1, 1984, to Dec 31, 2015, from various locations across the globe through the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We estimated temperature-mortality relationships through a two-stage time series design. We generated current and future daily mean temperature series under four scenarios of climate change, determined by varying trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions, using five general circulation models. We projected excess mortality for cold and heat and their net change in 1990-2099 under each scenario of climate change, assuming no adaptation or population changes. FINDINGS: Our dataset comprised 451 locations in 23 countries across nine regions of the world, including 85 879 895 deaths. Results indicate, on average, a net increase in temperature-related excess mortality under high-emission scenarios, although with important geographical differences. In temperate areas such as northern Europe, east Asia, and Australia, the less intense warming and large decrease in cold-related excess would induce a null or marginally negative net effect, with the net change in 2090-99 compared with 2010-19 ranging from -1·2% (empirical 95% CI -3·6 to 1·4) in Australia to -0·1% (-2·1 to 1·6) in east Asia under the highest emission scenario, although the decreasing trends would reverse during the course of the century. Conversely, warmer regions, such as the central and southern parts of America or Europe, and especially southeast Asia, would experience a sharp surge in heat-related impacts and extremely large net increases, with the net change at the end of the century ranging from 3·0% (-3·0 to 9·3) in Central America to 12·7% (-4·7 to 28·1) in southeast Asia under the highest emission scenario. Most of the health effects directly due to temperature increase could be avoided under scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit emissions and further warming of the planet. INTERPRETATION: This study shows the negative health impacts of climate change that, under high-emission scenarios, would disproportionately affect warmer and poorer regions of the world. Comparison with lower emission scenarios emphasises the importance of mitigation policies for limiting global warming and reducing the associated health risks. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council.

The Asian summer monsoon affects more than sixty percent of the world's population; understanding its controlling factors is becoming increasingly important due to the expanding human influence on the environment and climate and the need to adapt to global climate change. Various mechanisms have been suggested; however, an overarching paradigm delineating the dominant factors for its generation and strength remains debated. Here we use observation data and numerical experiments to demonstrates that the Asian summer monsoon systems are controlled mainly by thermal forcing whereas large-scale orographically mechanical forcing is not essential: the South Asian monsoon south of 20°N by land-sea thermal contrast, its northern part by the thermal forcing of the Iranian Plateau, and the East Asian monsoon and the eastern part of the South Asian monsoon by the thermal forcing of the Tibetan Plateau.

Vertical profiles of the linear particle depolarization ratio of pure dust clouds were measured during the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) at Ouarzazate, Morocco (30.9◦N, –6.9◦E), close to source regions in May–June 2006, with four lidar systems at four wavelengths (355, 532, 710 and 1064 nm). The intercomparison of the lidar systems is accompanied by a discussion of the different calibration methods, including a new, advanced method, and a detailed error analysis. Over the whole SAMUM periode pure dust layers show a mean linear particle depolarization ratio at 532 nm of 0.31, in the range between 0.27 and 0.35, with a mean Ångström exponent (AE, 440–870 nm) of 0.18 (range 0.04–0.34) and still high mean linear particle depolarization ratio between 0.21 and 0.25 during periods with aerosol optical thickness less than 0.1, with a mean AE of 0.76 (range 0.65–1.00), which represents a negative correlation of the linear particle depolarization ratio with the AE. A slight decrease of the linear particle depolarization ratio with wavelength was found between 532 and 1064 nm from 0.31 ± 0.03 to 0.27 ± 0.04.

We describe several newly developed methods for propagation analysis of electromagnetic plasma waves. We make use of singular value decomposition (SVD) technique and we determine the wave vector direction, ellipticity and directions of axes of the polarization ellipse, wave refractive index, transfer function of electric antennas, estimators of the planarity of polarization, and electromagnetic planarity. Simulations of Z‐mode waves, which simultaneously propagate with different wave vectors, indicate that the SVD methods give reasonable results even if the assumption on the presence of a single plane wave is invalid. Simulations of whistler mode waves show that these methods can be used to recognize cases when the waves simultaneously propagate with wave vectors in two opposite hemispheres. Finally, we show an example of analysis of natural whistler mode and Z‐mode emissions measured in the high‐altitude auroral region by the MEMO experiment onboard the INTERBALL spacecraft.

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) project was established jointly by the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) and the International Union of Radio Science (URSI) in the late sixties with the goal to develop an international standard for the specification of plasma parameters in the Earth’s ionosphere. COSPAR needed such a specification for the evaluation of environmental effects on spacecraft and experiments in space, and URSI for radiowave propagation studies and applications. At the request of COSPAR and URSI, IRI was developed as a data-based model to avoid the uncertainty of theory-based models which are only as good as the evolving theoretical understanding. Being based on most of the available and reliable observations of the ionospheric plasma from the ground and from space, IRI describes monthly averages of electron density, electron temperature, ion temperature, ion composition, and several additional parameters in the altitude range from 60 km to 2000 km. A working group of about 50 international ionospheric experts is in charge of developing and improving the IRI model. Over time as new data became available and new modeling techniques emerged, steadily improved editions of the IRI model have been published. This paper gives a brief history of the IRI project and describes the latest version of the model, IRI-2012. It also briefly discusses efforts to develop a real-time IRI model. The IRI homepage is at http://IRImodel.org.

We review recent advances in classifications of circulation patterns as a specific research area within synoptic climatology. The review starts with a general description of goals of classification and the historical development in the field. We put circulation classifications into a broader context within climatology and systematize the varied methodologies and approaches. We characterize three basic groups of classifications: subjective (also called manual), mixed (hybrid), and objective (computer-assisted, automated). The roles of cluster analysis and principal component analysis in the classification process are clarified. Several recent methodological developments in circulation classifications are identified and briefly described: the introduction of nonlinear methods, objectivization of subjective catalogs, efforts to optimize classifications, the need for intercomparisons of classifications, and the progress toward an optimum, if possible unified, classification method. Among the recent tendencies in the applications of circulation classifications, we mention a more extensive use in climate studies, both of past, present, and future climates, innovative applications in the ensemble forecasting, increasing variety of synoptic-climatological investigations, and steps above from the troposphere. After introducing the international activity within the field of circulation classifications, the COST733 Action, we briefly describe outputs of the inventory of classifications in Europe, which was carried out within the Action. Approaches to the evaluation of classifications and their mutual comparisons are also reviewed. A considerable part of the review is devoted to three examples of applications of circulation classifications: in historical climatology, in analyses of recent climate variations, and in analyses of outputs from global climate models.

We present a comparison between WIND/SWE observations (Kasper et al., 2006) of β ∥ p and T ⊥ p / T ∥ p (where β ∥ p is the proton parallel beta and T ⊥ p and T ∥ p are the perpendicular and parallel proton temperatures, respectively; here parallel and perpendicular indicate directions with respect to the ambient magnetic field) and predictions of the Vlasov linear theory. In the slow solar wind, the observed proton temperature anisotropy seems to be constrained by oblique instabilities, by the mirror one and the oblique fire hose, contrary to the results of the linear theory which predicts a dominance of the proton cyclotron instability and the parallel fire hose. The fast solar wind core protons exhibit an anticorrelation between β ∥ c and T ⊥ c / T ∥ c (where β ∥ c is the core proton parallel beta and T ⊥ c and T ∥ c are the perpendicular and parallel core proton temperatures, respectively) similar to that observed in the HELIOS data (Marsch et al., 2004).

To date, projections of European crop yields under climate change have been based almost entirely on the outputs of crop-growth models. While this strategy can provide good estimates of the effects of climatic factors, soil conditions and management on crop yield, these models usually do not capture all of the important aspects related to crop management, or the relevant environmental factors. Moreover, crop-simulation studies often have severe limitations with respect to the number of crops covered or the spatial extent. The present study, based on agroclimatic indices, provides a general picture of agroclimatic conditions in western and central Europe (study area lays between 8.5°W–27°E and 37–63.5°N), which allows for a more general assessment of climate-change impacts. The results obtained from the analysis of data from 86 different sites were clustered according to an environmental stratification of Europe. The analysis was carried for the baseline (1971–2000) and future climate conditions (time horizons of 2030, 2050 and with a global temperature increase of 5 °C) based on outputs of three global circulation models. For many environmental zones, there were clear signs of deteriorating agroclimatic condition in terms of increased drought stress and shortening of the active growing season, which in some regions become increasingly squeezed between a cold winter and a hot summer. For most zones the projections show a marked need for adaptive measures to either increase soil water availability or drought resistance of crops. This study concludes that rainfed agriculture is likely to face more climate-related risks, although the analyzed agroclimatic indicators will probably remain at a level that should permit rainfed production. However, results suggests that there is a risk of increasing number of extremely unfavorable years in many climate zones, which might result in higher interannual yield variability and constitute a challenge for proper crop management.

We discuss chorus emissions measured by the four Cluster spacecraft at close separations during a geomagnetically disturbed period on 18 April 2002. We analyze the lower band of chorus below one half of the electron cyclotron frequency, measured at a radial distance of 4.4 Earth's radii, within a 2000 km long source region located close to the equator. The characteristic wave vector directions in this region are nearly parallel to the field lines and the multipoint measurement demonstrates the dynamic character of the chorus source region, changing the Poynting flux direction at time scales shorter than a few seconds. The electric field waveforms of the chorus wave packets (forming separate chorus elements on power spectrograms) show a fine structure consisting of subpackets with a maximum amplitude above 30 mV/m. To study this fine structure we have used a sine‐wave parametric model with a variable amplitude. The subpackets typically start with an exponential growth phase, and after reaching the saturation amplitude they often show an exponential decay phase. The duration of subpackets is variable from a few milliseconds to a few tens of milliseconds, and they appear in the waveform randomly, with no clear periodicity. The obtained growth rate (ratio of the imaginary part to the real part of the wave frequency) is highly variable from case to case with values obtained between a few thousandths and a few hundredths. The same chorus wave packets simultaneously observed on the different closely separated spacecraft appear to have a different internal subpacket structure. The characteristic scale of the subpackets can thus be lower than tens of kilometers in the plane perpendicular to the field line, or hundreds of kilometers parallel to the field line (corresponding to a characteristic time scale of few milliseconds during the propagation of the entire wave packet). Using delays of time‐frequency curves obtained on different spacecraft, we have found the same propagation direction as obtained from the simultaneous Poynting flux calculations. The delays roughly correspond to the whistler‐mode group velocity estimated from the cold plasma theory. We have also observed delays corresponding to antiparallel propagation directions for two neighboring chorus wave packets, less than 0.1 s apart.

Abstract This paper is a review of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) project and model. IRI is recognized as the official standard for the Earth's ionosphere by the International Standardization Organization, the International Union of Radio Science, the Committee on Space Research, and the European Cooperation for Space Standardization. As requested by these organizations, IRI is an empirical (data‐based) model representing the primary ionospheric parameters based on the long data record that exists from ground and space observations of the ionosphere. The core model describes monthly averages of the electron density, electron temperature, ion temperature, and ion composition globally in the altitude range from 60 to 2,000 km. Over time additional parameters were added in response to requests from the user community, this includes the equatorial ion drift, the occurrence probability of spread‐F and of an F1 layer, auroral boundaries and the electron content from the bottom of the ionosphere to user‐specified altitude. IRI has undergone extensive validations and is used for a wide range of applications in science, engineering, and education. This review is the result of many requests we have received for a comprehensive description of the model. It is also meant as a guide for users who are interested in a deeper understanding of the model architecture and its mathematical formalism.

Abstract. The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) is endorsed by the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and is designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. These are specifically near-term climate forcers (NTCFs: methane, tropospheric ozone and aerosols, and their precursors), nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting halocarbons. The aim of AerChemMIP is to answer four scientific questions. 1. How have anthropogenic emissions contributed to global radiative forcing and affected regional climate over the historical period? 2. How might future policies (on climate, air quality and land use) affect the abundances of NTCFs and their climate impacts? 3.How do uncertainties in historical NTCF emissions affect radiative forcing estimates? 4. How important are climate feedbacks to natural NTCF emissions, atmospheric composition, and radiative effects? These questions will be addressed through targeted simulations with CMIP6 climate models that include an interactive representation of tropospheric aerosols and atmospheric chemistry. These simulations build on the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments, the CMIP6 historical simulations, and future projections performed elsewhere in CMIP6, allowing the contributions from aerosols and/or chemistry to be quantified. Specific diagnostics are requested as part of the CMIP6 data request to highlight the chemical composition of the atmosphere, to evaluate the performance of the models, and to understand differences in behaviour between them.

Local acceleration is required to explain electron flux increases in the outer Van Allen radiation belt during magnetic storms. Here we show that fast magnetosonic waves, detected by Cluster 3, can accelerate electrons between ∼10 keV and a few MeV inside the outer radiation belt. Acceleration occurs via electron Landau resonance, and not Doppler shifted cyclotron resonance, due to wave propagation almost perpendicular to the ambient magnetic field. Using quasi‐linear theory, pitch angle and energy diffusion rates are comparable to those for whistler mode chorus, suggesting that these waves are very important for local electron acceleration. Since pitch angle diffusion does not extend into the loss cone, these waves, on their own, are not important for loss to the atmosphere. We suggest that magnetosonic waves, which are generated by unstable proton ring distributions, are an important energy transfer process from the ring current to the Van Allen radiation belts.

The European Research Infrastructure IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System) operates a global-scale monitoring system for atmospheric trace gases, aerosols and clouds utilising the existing global civil aircraft. This new monitoring infrastructure builds on the heritage of the former research projects MOZAIC (Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapour on Airbus In-service Aircraft) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the Atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container). CARIBIC continues within IAGOS and acts as an important airborne measurement reference standard within the wider IAGOS fleet. IAGOS is a major contributor to the in-situ component of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), the successor to the Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security – Atmospheric Service, and is providing data for users in science, weather services and atmospherically relevant policy. IAGOS is unique in collecting regular in-situ observations of reactive gases, greenhouse gases and aerosol concentrations in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere (UTLS) at high spatial resolution. It also provides routine vertical profiles of these species in the troposphere over continental sites or regions, many of which are undersampled by other networks or sampling studies, particularly in Africa, Southeast Asia and South America. In combination with MOZAIC and CARIBIC, IAGOS has provided long-term observations of atmospheric chemical composition in the UTLS since 1994. The longest time series are 20 yr of temperature, H2O and O3, and 9–15 yr of aerosols, CO, NO y , CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, Hg, acetone, ~30 HFCs and ~20 non-methane hydrocarbons. Among the scientific highlights which have emerged from these data sets are observations of extreme concentrations of O3 and CO over the Pacific basin that have never or rarely been recorded over the Atlantic region for the past 12 yr; detailed information on the temporal and regional distributions of O3, CO, H2O, NO y and aerosol particles in the UTLS, including the impacts of cross-tropopause transport, deep convection and lightning on the distribution of these species; characterisation of ice-supersaturated regions in the UTLS; and finally, improved understanding of the spatial distribution of upper tropospheric humidity including the finding that the UTLS is much more humid than previously assumed.