Data Observatory Foundation

Abstract We introduce the Automatic Learning for the Rapid Classification of Events (ALeRCE) broker, an astronomical alert broker designed to provide a rapid and self-consistent classification of large etendue telescope alert streams, such as that provided by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and, in the future, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). ALeRCE is a Chilean-led broker run by an interdisciplinary team of astronomers and engineers working to become intermediaries between survey and follow-up facilities. ALeRCE uses a pipeline that includes the real-time ingestion, aggregation, cross-matching, machine-learning (ML) classification, and visualization of the ZTF alert stream. We use two classifiers: a stamp-based classifier, designed for rapid classification, and a light curve–based classifier, which uses the multiband flux evolution to achieve a more refined classification. We describe in detail our pipeline, data products, tools, and services, which are made public for the community (see https://alerce.science ). Since we began operating our real-time ML classification of the ZTF alert stream in early 2019, we have grown a large community of active users around the globe. We describe our results to date, including the real-time processing of 1.5 × 10 8 alerts, the stamp classification of 3.4 × 10 7 objects, the light-curve classification of 1.1 × 10 6 objects, the report of 6162 supernova candidates, and different experiments using LSST-like alert streams. Finally, we discuss the challenges ahead in going from a single stream of alerts such as ZTF to a multistream ecosystem dominated by LSST.

Abstract We present the first version of the Automatic Learning for the Rapid Classification of Events (ALeRCE) broker light curve classifier. ALeRCE is currently processing the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) alert stream, in preparation for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. The ALeRCE light curve classifier uses variability features computed from the ZTF alert stream and colors obtained from AllWISE and ZTF photometry. We apply a balanced random forest algorithm with a two-level scheme where the top level classifies each source as periodic, stochastic, or transient, and the bottom level further resolves each of these hierarchical classes among 15 total classes. This classifier corresponds to the first attempt to classify multiple classes of stochastic variables (including core- and host-dominated active galactic nuclei, blazars, young stellar objects, and cataclysmic variables) in addition to different classes of periodic and transient sources, using real data. We created a labeled set using various public catalogs (such as the Catalina Surveys and Gaia DR2 variable stars catalogs, and the Million Quasars catalog), and we classify all objects with ≥6 g -band or ≥6 r -band detections in ZTF (868,371 sources as of 2020 June 9), providing updated classifications for sources with new alerts every day. For the top level we obtain macro-averaged precision and recall scores of 0.96 and 0.99, respectively, and for the bottom level we obtain macro-averaged precision and recall scores of 0.57 and 0.76, respectively. Updated classifications from the light curve classifier can be found at the ALeRCE Explorer website ( http://alerce.online ).

Abstract Purpose of Review: Review our current understanding of how precipitation is related to its thermodynamic environment, i.e., the water vapor and temperature in the surroundings, and implications for changes in extremes in a warmer climate. Recent Findings: Multiple research threads have i) sought empirical relationships that govern onset of strong convective precipitation, or that might identify how precipitation extremes scale with changes in temperature; ii) examined how such extremes change with water vapor in global and regional climate models under warming scenarios; iii) identified fundamental processes that set the characteristic shapes of precipitation distributions. Summary: While water vapor increases tend to be governed by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship to temperature, precipitation extreme changes are more complex and can increase more rapidly, particularly in the tropics. Progress may be aided by bringing separate research threads together and by casting theory in terms of a full explanation of the precipitation probability distribution.

Abstract Marine heatwaves have profoundly impacted marine ecosystems over large areas of the world oceans, calling for improved understanding of their dynamics and predictability. Here, we critically review the recent substantial advances in this active area of research, including the exploration of the three-dimensional structure and evolution of these extremes, their drivers, their connection with other extremes in the ocean and over land, future projections, and assessment of their predictability and current prediction skill. To make progress on predicting and projecting marine heatwaves and their impacts, a more complete mechanistic understanding of these extremes over the full ocean depth and at the relevant spatial and temporal scales is needed, together with models that can realistically capture the leading mechanisms at those scales. Sustained observing systems, as well as measuring platforms that can be rapidly deployed, are essential to achieve comprehensive event characterizations while also chronicling the evolving nature of these extremes and their impacts in our changing climate.

Abstract Two catastrophic extreme precipitation events in July 2021 and August 1975 caused tremendous damages and deaths in Henan, one of the most populated provinces in China. Revealing the relationship between large‐scale circulation patterns and precipitation extremes is vital for understanding the physical mechanisms and providing potential value for improving prediction and hence reducing impacts. Here, nine large‐scale circulation patterns are identified for July–August using the self‐organizing map. We find daily precipitation extremes under the fifth pattern (P5), characterized with the strongest easterly wind anomalies in Henan, feature the highest frequency and the largest intensity. Seven out of total 11 days in the two catastrophic extreme precipitation events belong to P5, and the top two maximum hourly precipitation extremes over continental China occurred under P5. The larger intensity of precipitation extremes is attributed to the dynamical contribution, suggesting more‐intense precipitation extremes under P5 are largely dominated by stronger ascending motions.

Abstract Observing exoplanets through transmission spectroscopy supplies detailed information about their atmospheric composition, physics and chemistry. Before the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), these observations were limited to a narrow wavelength range across the near-ultraviolet to near-infrared, alongside broadband photometry at longer wavelengths. To understand more complex properties of exoplanet atmospheres, improved wavelength coverage and resolution are necessary to robustly quantify the influence of a broader range of absorbing molecular species. Here we present a combined analysis of JWST transmission spectroscopy across four different instrumental modes spanning 0.5–5.2 μm using Early Release Science observations of the Saturn-mass exoplanet WASP-39 b. Our uniform analysis constrains the orbital and stellar parameters within subpercentage precision, including matching the precision obtained by the most precise asteroseismology measurements of stellar density to date, and it further confirms the presence of Na, K, H 2 O, CO, CO 2 and SO 2 as atmospheric absorbers. Through this process, we have improved the agreement between the transmission spectra of all modes, except for the NIRSpec PRISM, which is affected by partial saturation of the detector. This work provides strong evidence that uniform light curve analysis is an important aspect to ensuring reliability when comparing the high-precision transmission spectra provided by JWST.

Daily precipitation extremes are projected to intensify with increasing moisture under global warming following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship at about [Formula: see text]. However, this increase is not spatially homogeneous. Projections in individual models exhibit regions with substantially larger increases than expected from the CC scaling. Here, we leverage theory and observations of the form of the precipitation probability distribution to substantially improve intermodel agreement in the medium to high precipitation intensity regime, and to interpret projected changes in frequency in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Besides particular regions where models consistently display super-CC behavior, we find substantial occurrence of super-CC behavior within a given latitude band when the multi-model average does not require that the models agree point-wise on location within that band. About 13% of the globe and almost 25% of the tropics (30% for tropical land) display increases exceeding 2CC. Over 40% of tropical land points exceed 1.5CC. Risk-ratio analysis shows that even small increases above CC scaling can have disproportionately large effects in the frequency of the most extreme events. Risk due to regional enhancement of precipitation scale increase by dynamical effects must thus be included in vulnerability assessment even if locations are imprecise.

The compact mm-wavelength signal in the central cavity of the PDS70 disc, revealed by deep ALMA observations, is aligned with unresolved Halpha emission, and is thought to stem from a circum-planetary disc (CPD) around PDS70c. We revisit the available ALMA data on PDS70c with alternative imaging strategies, and with special attention to uncertainties and to the impact of the so-called "JvM correction", which is thought to improve the dynamic range of restored images. We also propose a procedure for the alignment and joint imaging of multi-epoch visibility data. We find that the JvM correction exaggerates the peak signal-to-noise of the data, by up to a factor of 10. In the case of PDS70, we recover the detection of PDS70c from the July 2019 data, but only at 8sigma. However, its non-detection in Dec. 2017 suggests that PDS70c is variable by at least 42%+-13% over a 1.75yr time-span, so similar to models of the Halpha variability. We also pick up fine structure in the inner disc, such that its peak is offset by ~ 0.04" from the disc centre. The inner disc is variable too, which we tentatively ascribe to Keplerian rotation as well as intrinsic morphological changes.

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a progressive type of dementia characterized by loss of memory and other cognitive abilities, including speech. Since AD is a progressive disease, detection in the early stages is essential for the appropriate care of the patient throughout its development, going from asymptomatic to a stage known as mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and then progressing to dementia and severe dementia; is worth mentioning that everyone suffers from cognitive impairment to some degree as we age, but the relevant task here is to identify which people are most likely to develop AD. Along with cognitive tests, evaluation of the brain morphology is the primary tool for AD diagnosis, where atrophy and loss of volume of the frontotemporal lobe are common features in patients who suffer from the disease. Regarding medical imaging techniques, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans are one of the methods used by specialists to assess brain morphology. Recently, with the rise of deep learning (DL) and its successful implementation in medical imaging applications, it is of growing interest in the research community to develop computer-aided diagnosis systems that can help physicians to detect this disease, especially in the early stages where macroscopic changes are not so easily identified. This article presents a DL-based approach to classifying MRI scans in the different stages of AD, using a curated set of images from Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative and Open Access Series of Imaging Studies databases. Our methodology involves image pre-processing using FreeSurfer, spatial data-augmentation operations, such as rotation, flip, and random zoom during training, and state-of-the-art 3D convolutional neural networks such as EfficientNet, DenseNet, and a custom siamese network, as well as the relatively new approach of vision transformer architecture. With this approach, the best detection percentage among all four architectures was around 89% for AD vs . Control, 80% for Late MCI vs . Control, 66% for MCI vs . Control, and 67% for Early MCI vs . Control.

Abstract JWST has ushered in an era of unprecedented ability to characterize exoplanetary atmospheres. While there are over 5000 confirmed planets, more than 4000 Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) planet candidates are still unconfirmed and many of the best planets for atmospheric characterization may remain to be identified. We present a sample of TESS planets and planet candidates that we identify as “best-in-class” for transmission and emission spectroscopy with JWST. These targets are sorted into bins across equilibrium temperature T eq and planetary radius R p and are ranked by a transmission and an emission spectroscopy metric (TSM and ESM, respectively) within each bin. We perform cuts for expected signal size and stellar brightness to remove suboptimal targets for JWST. Of the 194 targets in the resulting sample, 103 are unconfirmed TESS planet candidates, also known as TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs). We perform vetting and statistical validation analyses on these 103 targets to determine which are likely planets and which are likely false positives, incorporating ground-based follow-up from the TESS Follow-up Observation Program to aid the vetting and validation process. We statistically validate 18 TOIs, marginally validate 31 TOIs to varying levels of confidence, deem 29 TOIs likely false positives, and leave the dispositions for four TOIs as inconclusive. Twenty-one of the 103 TOIs were confirmed independently over the course of our analysis. We intend for this work to serve as a community resource and motivate formal confirmation and mass measurements of each validated planet. We encourage more detailed analysis of individual targets by the community.

Abstract We present the discovery of TOI-3235 b, a short-period Jupiter orbiting an M dwarf with a stellar mass close to the critical mass at which stars transition from partially to fully convective. TOI-3235 b was first identified as a candidate from TESS photometry and confirmed with radial velocities from ESPRESSO and ground-based photometry from HATSouth, MEarth-South, TRAPPIST-South, LCOGT, and ExTrA. We find that the planet has a mass of 0.665 ± 0.025 M J and a radius of 1.017 ± 0.044 R J . It orbits close to its host star, with an orbital period of 2.5926 days but has an equilibrium temperature of ≈ 604 K, well below the expected threshold for radius inflation of hot Jupiters. The host star has a mass of 0.3939 ± 0.0030 M ☉ , a radius of 0.3697 ± 0.0018 R ☉ , an effective temperature of 3389 K, and a J -band magnitude of 11.706 ± 0.025. Current planet formation models do not predict the existence of gas giants such as TOI-3235 b around such low-mass stars. With a high transmission spectroscopy metric, TOI-3235 b is one of the best-suited giants orbiting M dwarfs for atmospheric characterization.

Abstract The K-type star TOI-2525 has an estimated mass of M = <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0.849</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.033</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.024</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> M ⊙ and radius of R = <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0.785</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.007</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.007</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> R ⊙ observed by the TESS mission in 22 sectors (within sectors 1 and 39). The TESS light curves yield significant transit events of two companions, which show strong transit timing variations (TTVs) with a semiamplitude of ∼6 hr. We performed TTV dynamical and photodynamical light-curve analysis of the TESS data combined with radial velocity measurements from FEROS and PFS, and we confirmed the planetary nature of these companions. The TOI-2525 system consists of a transiting pair of planets comparable to Neptune and Jupiter with estimated dynamical masses of m b = <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0.088</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.004</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.005</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> and m c = <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0.709</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.033</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.034</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> M Jup , radii of r b = <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0.88</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.02</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.02</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> and r c = <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0.98</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.02</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.02</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> R Jup , and orbital periods of P b = <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>23.288</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.002</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.001</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> and P c = <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>49.260</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.001</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.001</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> days for the inner and outer planet, respectively. The period ratio is close to the 2:1 period commensurability, but the dynamical simulations of the system suggest that it is outside the mean-motion resonance (MMR) dynamical configuration. Object TOI-2525 b is among the lowest-density Neptune-mass planets known to date, with an estimated median density of ρ b = <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>0.174</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.015</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>0.016</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> g cm −3 . The TOI-2525 system is very similar to the other K dwarf systems discovered by TESS, TOI-2202 and TOI-216, which are composed of almost identical K dwarf primaries and two warm giant planets near the 2:1 MMR.

Abstract Aim Successional changes in functional diversity provide insights into community assembly by indicating how species are filtered into local communities based on their traits. Here, we assess successional changes in taxonomic and functional richness, evenness and redundancy along gradients of climate, soil pH and forest cover. Location Neotropics. Time period Last 0–100 years. Major taxa studied Trees. Methods We used 22 forest chronosequence studies and 676 plots across the Neotropics to analyse successional changes in Hill's taxonomic and functional diversity of trees, and how these successional changes vary with continental‐scale gradients in precipitation, soil pH and surrounding forest cover. Results Taxonomic and functional richness and functional redundancy increased, while taxonomic and functional evenness decreased over time. Functional richness and evenness changed strongly when not accounting for taxonomic richness, but changed more weakly after statistically accounting for taxonomic richness, indicating that changes in functional diversity are largely driven by taxonomic richness. Nevertheless, the successional increases in functional richness when correcting for taxonomic richness may indicate that environmental heterogeneity and limiting similarity increase during succession. The taxonomically‐independent successional decreases in functional evenness may indicate that stronger filtering and competition select for dominant species with similar trait values, while many rare species and traits are added to the community. Such filtering and competition may also lead to increased functional redundancy. The changes in taxonomically‐independent functional diversity varied with resource availability and were stronger in harsh, resource‐poor environments, but weak in benign, productive environments. Hence, in resource‐poor environments, environmental filtering and facilitation are important, whereas in productive environments, weaker abiotic filtering allows for high initial functional diversity and weak successional changes. Main conclusion We found that taxonomic and functional richness and functional redundancy increased and taxonomic and functional evenness decreased during succession, mainly caused by the increasing number of rare species and traits due to the arrival of new species and due to changing (a)biotic filters.

ABSTRACT Hot jupiters (P &amp;lt; 10 d, M &amp;gt; 60 M⊕) are almost always found alone around their stars, but four out of hundreds known have inner companion planets. These rare companions allow us to constrain the hot jupiter’s formation history by ruling out high-eccentricity tidal migration. Less is known about inner companions to hot Saturn-mass planets. We report here the discovery of the TOI-2000 system, which features a hot Saturn-mass planet with a smaller inner companion. The mini-neptune TOI-2000 b (2.70 ± 0.15 R⊕, 11.0 ± 2.4 M⊕) is in a 3.10-d orbit, and the hot saturn TOI-2000 c ($8.14_{-0.30}^{+0.31}$ R⊕ , $81.7_{-4.6}^{+4.7}$ M⊕) is in a 9.13-d orbit. Both planets transit their host star TOI-2000 (TIC 371188886, V = 10.98, TESS magnitude = 10.36), a metal-rich ([Fe/H] = 0.439 $_{-0.043}^{+0.041}$) G dwarf 173 pc away. TESS observed the two planets in sectors 9–11 and 36–38, and we followed up with ground-based photometry, spectroscopy, and speckle imaging. Radial velocities from CHIRON, FEROS, and HARPS allowed us to confirm both planets by direct mass measurement. In addition, we demonstrate constraining planetary and stellar parameters with MIST stellar evolutionary tracks through Hamiltonian Monte Carlo under the PyMC framework, achieving higher sampling efficiency and shorter run time compared to traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo. Having the brightest host star in the V band among similar systems, TOI-2000 b and c are superb candidates for atmospheric characterization by the JWST, which can potentially distinguish whether they formed together or TOI-2000 c swept along material during migration to form TOI-2000 b.

Abstract High-eccentricity tidal migration predicts the existence of highly eccentric proto hot Jupiters on the “tidal circularization track,” meaning that they might eventually become hot Jupiters, but that their migratory journey remains incomplete. Having experienced moderate amounts of tidal evolution of their orbital elements, proto hot Jupiter systems can be powerful test beds for the underlying mechanisms of eccentricity growth. Notably, they may be used for discriminating between variants of high-eccentricity migration, each predicting a distinct evolution of misalignment between the star and the planet’s orbit. We constrain the spin–orbit misalignment of the proto hot Jupiter TOI-3362b with high-precision radial-velocity observations using ESPRESSO at Very Large Telescope. The observations reveal a sky-projected obliquity <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" overflow="scroll"> <mml:mi>λ</mml:mi> <mml:mo>=</mml:mo> <mml:msubsup> <mml:mrow> <mml:mn>1.2</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>−</mml:mo> <mml:mn>2.7</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> <mml:mrow> <mml:mo>+</mml:mo> <mml:mn>2.8</mml:mn> </mml:mrow> </mml:msubsup> </mml:math> ° and constrain the orbital eccentricity to e = 0.720 ± 0.016, making it one of the most eccentric gas giants for which the obliquity has been measured. Although the large eccentricity and the striking orbit alignment of the planet are puzzling, we suggest that ongoing coplanar high-eccentricity migration driven by a distant companion is a possible explanation for the system's architecture. This distant companion would need to reside beyond 5 au at 95% confidence to be compatible with the available radial-velocity observations.

ABSTRACT We present the discovery and characterization of six short-period, transiting giant planets from NASA’s Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) -- TOI-1811 (TIC 376524552), TOI-2025 (TIC 394050135), TOI-2145 (TIC 88992642), TOI-2152 (TIC 395393265), TOI-2154 (TIC 428787891), and TOI-2497 (TIC 97568467). All six planets orbit bright host stars (8.9 &amp;lt;G &amp;lt; 11.8, 7.7 &amp;lt;K &amp;lt; 10.1). Using a combination of time-series photometric and spectroscopic follow-up observations from the TESS Follow-up Observing Program Working Group, we have determined that the planets are Jovian-sized (RP = 0.99--1.45 RJ), have masses ranging from 0.92 to 5.26 MJ, and orbit F, G, and K stars (4766 ≤ Teff ≤ 7360 K). We detect a significant orbital eccentricity for the three longest-period systems in our sample: TOI-2025 b (P = 8.872 d, 0.394$^{+0.035}_{-0.038}$), TOI-2145 b (P = 10.261 d, e = $0.208^{+0.034}_{-0.047}$), and TOI-2497 b (P = 10.656 d, e = $0.195^{+0.043}_{-0.040}$). TOI-2145 b and TOI-2497 b both orbit subgiant host stars (3.8 &amp;lt; log g &amp;lt;4.0), but these planets show no sign of inflation despite very high levels of irradiation. The lack of inflation may be explained by the high mass of the planets; $5.26^{+0.38}_{-0.37}$ MJ (TOI-2145 b) and 4.82 ± 0.41 MJ (TOI-2497 b). These six new discoveries contribute to the larger community effort to use TESS to create a magnitude-complete, self-consistent sample of giant planets with well-determined parameters for future detailed studies.

The interpretation of molecular-line data using hydrodynamical simulations of planet-disk interactions fosters new hope for the indirect detection of protoplanets. In a model-independent approach, embedded protoplanets should be found at the roots of abrupt Doppler flips in velocity centroid maps. However, the largest velocity perturbation known for an unwarped disk, in the disk of HD 100546, leads to a conspicuous Doppler flip that coincides with a thick dust ring, in contradiction with an interpretation in terms of a greater than or similar to 1 M-jup body. Here we present new ALMA observations of the (CO)-C-12(2-1) kinematics in HD 100546, with a factor of 2 finer angular resolutions. We find that the disk rotation curve is consistent with a central mass 2.1 &lt; M-*/M-circle dot &lt; 2.3 and that the blueshifted side of the Doppler flip is due to vertical motions, reminiscent of the disk wind proposed previously from blueshifted SO lines. We tentatively propose a qualitative interpretation in terms of a surface disturbance to the Keplerian flow, i.e., a disk eruption, driven by an embedded outflow launched by a similar to 10 M-earth body. Another interpretation involves a disk-mass-loading hot spot at the convergence of an envelope accretion streamer.

Abstract The performance of GCMs in simulating daily precipitation probability distributions is investigated by comparing 35 CMIP6 models against observational datasets (TRMM-3B42 and GPCP). In these observational datasets, PDFs on wet days follow a power-law range for low and moderate intensities below a characteristic precipitation cutoff scale. Beyond the cutoff scale, the probability drops much faster, hence controlling the size of extremes in a given climate. In the satellite products analyzed, PDFs have no interior peak. Contributions to the first and second moments tend to be single-peaked, implying a single dominant precipitation scale; the relationship to the cutoff scale and log-precipitation coordinate and normalization of frequency density are outlined. Key metrics investigated include the fraction of wet days, PDF power-law exponent, cutoff scale, shape of probability distributions, and number of probability peaks. The simulated power-law exponent and cutoff scale generally fall within observational bounds, although these bounds are large; GPCP systematically displays a smaller exponent and cutoff scale than TRMM-3B42. Most models simulate a more complex PDF shape than these observational datasets, with both PDFs and contributions exhibiting additional peaks in many regions. In most of these instances, one peak can be attributed to large-scale precipitation and the other to convective precipitation. Similar to previous CMIP phases, most models also rain too often and too lightly. These differences in wet-day fraction and PDF shape occur primarily over oceans and may relate to deterministic scales in precipitation parameterizations. It is argued that stochastic parameterizations may contribute to simplifying simulated distributions.

Abstract We present the discovery from the TESS mission of two giant planets transiting M-dwarf stars: TOI 4201 b and TOI 5344 b. We also provide precise radial velocity measurements and updated system parameters for three other M dwarfs with transiting giant planets: TOI 519, TOI 3629, and TOI 3714. We measure planetary masses of 0.525 ± 0.064 M J , 0.243 ± 0.020 M J , 0.689 ± 0.030 M J , 2.57 ± 0.15 M J , and 0.412±0.040 M J for TOI 519 b, TOI 3629 b, TOI 3714 b, TOI 4201 b, and TOI 5344 b, respectively. The corresponding stellar masses are 0.372 ± 0.018 M ☉ , 0.635 ± 0.032 M ☉ , 0.522 ± 0.028 M ☉ , 0.626 ± 0.033 M ☉ , and 0.612 ± 0.034 M ☉ . All five hosts have supersolar metallicities, providing further support for recent findings that, like for solar-type stars, close-in giant planets are preferentially found around metal-rich M-dwarf host stars. Finally, we describe a procedure for accounting for systematic errors in stellar evolution models when those models are included directly in fitting a transiting planet system.

Abstract Warm Jupiters lay out an excellent laboratory for testing models of planet formation and migration. Their separation from the host star makes tidal reprocessing of their orbits ineffective, which preserves the orbital architectures that result from the planet-forming process. Among the measurable properties, the orbital inclination with respect to the stellar rotational axis, stands out as a crucial diagnostic for understanding the migration mechanisms behind the origin of close-in planets. Observational limitations have made the procurement of spin–orbit measurements heavily biased toward hot Jupiter systems. In recent years, however, high-precision spectroscopy has begun to provide obliquity measurements for planets well into the warm Jupiter regime. In this study, we present Rossiter–McLaughlin (RM) measurements of the projected obliquity angle for the warm Jupiter TOI-677 b using ESPRESSO at the VLT. TOI-677 b exhibits an extreme degree of alignment ( λ = 0.3 ± 1.3 deg), which is particularly puzzling given its significant eccentricity ( e ≈ 0.45). TOI-677 b thus joins a growing class of close-in giants that exhibit large eccentricities and low spin–orbit angles, which is a configuration not predicted by existing models. We also present the detection of a candidate outer brown dwarf companion on an eccentric, wide orbit ( e ≈ 0.4 and P ≈ 13 yr). Using simple estimates, we show that this companion is unlikely to be the cause of the unusual orbit of TOI-677 b. Therefore, it is essential that future efforts prioritize the acquisition of RM measurements for warm Jupiters.