Department of Chemistry and Earth Sciences

We synthesize estimates of the contemporary net air‐sea CO 2 flux on the basis of an inversion of interior ocean carbon observations using a suite of 10 ocean general circulation models (Mikaloff Fletcher et al., 2006, 2007) and compare them to estimates based on a new climatology of the air‐sea difference of the partial pressure of CO 2 ( p CO 2 ) (Takahashi et al., 2008). These two independent flux estimates reveal a consistent description of the regional distribution of annual mean sources and sinks of atmospheric CO 2 for the decade of the 1990s and the early 2000s with differences at the regional level of generally less than 0.1 Pg C a −1 . This distribution is characterized by outgassing in the tropics, uptake in midlatitudes, and comparatively small fluxes in thehigh latitudes. Both estimates point toward a small (∼ −0.3 Pg C a −1 ) contemporary CO 2 sink in the Southern Ocean (south of 44°S), a result of the near cancellation between a substantial outgassing of natural CO 2 and a strong uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 . A notable exception in the generally good agreement between the two estimates exists within the Southern Ocean: the ocean inversion suggests a relatively uniform uptake, while the p CO 2 ‐based estimate suggests strong uptake in the region between 58°S and 44°S, and a source in the region south of 58°S. Globally and for a nominal period between 1995 and 2000, the contemporary net air‐sea flux of CO 2 is estimated to be −1.7 ± 0.4 Pg C a −1 (inversion) and −1.4 ± 0.7 Pg C a −1 ( p CO 2 ‐climatology), respectively, consisting of an outgassing flux of river‐derived carbon of ∼+0.5 Pg C a −1 , and an uptake flux of anthropogenic carbon of −2.2 ± 0.3 Pg C a −1 (inversion) and −1.9 ± 0.7 Pg C a −1 ( p CO 2 ‐climatology). The two flux estimates also imply a consistent description of the contemporary meridional transport of carbon with southward ocean transport throughout most of the Atlantic basin, and strong equatorward convergence in the Indo‐Pacific basins. Both transport estimates suggest a small hemispheric asymmetry with a southward transport of between −0.2 and −0.3 Pg C a −1 across the equator. While the convergence of these two independent estimates is encouraging and suggests that it is now possible to provide relatively tight constraints for the net air‐sea CO 2 fluxes at the regional basis, both studies are limited by their lack of consideration of long‐term changes in the ocean carbon cycle, such as the recent possible stalling in the expected growth of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

century. Some of the regions most susceptible to dangerous heat and humidity combinations are also among the most densely populated. Consequently, there is the potential for widespread exposure to wet bulb temperatures that approach and in some cases exceed postulated theoretical limits of human tolerance by mid- to late-century. We project that by 2080 the relative frequency of present-day extreme wet bulb temperature events could rise by a factor of 100 - 250 (approximately double the frequency change projected for temperature alone) in the tropics and parts of the mid-latitudes, areas which are projected to contain approximately half the world's population. In addition, population exposure to wet bulb temperatures that exceed recent deadly heat waves may increase by a factor of five to ten, with 150 - 750 million person-days of exposure to wet bulb temperatures above those seen in today's most severe heat waves by 2070 - 2080. Under RCP 8.5, exposure to wet bulb temperatures above 35°C - the theoretical limit for human tolerance - could exceed a million person-days per year by 2080. Limiting emissions to follow RCP 4.5 entirely eliminates exposure to that extreme threshold. Some of the most affected regions, especially Northeast India and coastal West Africa, currently have scarce cooling infrastructure, relatively low adaptive capacity, and rapidly growing populations. In the coming decades heat stress may prove to be one of the most widely experienced and directly dangerous aspects of climate change, posing a severe threat to human health, energy infrastructure, and outdoor activities ranging from agricultural production to military training.

Four fundamental differences of air-sea interactions between the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans are identified based on observational analyses and physical reasoning. The first difference is represented by the strong contrast of a zonal cloud-SST phase relationship between the warm and cool oceans. The in-phase cloud-SST relationship in the warm oceans leads to a strong negative feedback, while a significant phase difference in the cold tongue leads to a much weaker thermodynamic damping. The second difference arises from the reversal of the basic-state zonal wind and the tilting of the ocean thermocline, which leads to distinctive effects of ocean waves. The third difference lies in the existence of the Asian monsoon and its interaction with the adjacent oceans. The fourth difference is that the southeast Indian Ocean is a region where a positive atmosphereocean thermodynamic feedback exists in boreal summer.

ABSTRACT Crowdsourcing is traditionally defined as obtaining data or information by enlisting the services of a (potentially large) number of people. However, due to recent innovations, this definition can now be expanded to include ‘and/or from a range of public sensors, typically connected via the Internet.’ A large and increasing amount of data is now being obtained from a huge variety of non‐traditional sources – from smart phone sensors to amateur weather stations to canvassing members of the public. Some disciplines (e.g. astrophysics, ecology) are already utilizing crowdsourcing techniques (e.g. citizen science initiatives, web 2.0 technology, low‐cost sensors), and while its value within the climate and atmospheric science disciplines is still relatively unexplored, it is beginning to show promise. However, important questions remain; this paper introduces and explores the wide‐range of current and prospective methods to crowdsource atmospheric data, investigates the quality of such data and examines its potential applications in the context of weather, climate and society. It is clear that crowdsourcing is already a valuable tool for engaging the public, and if appropriate validation and quality control procedures are adopted and implemented, it has much potential to provide a valuable source of high temporal and spatial resolution, real‐time data, especially in regions where few observations currently exist, thereby adding value to science, technology and society.

Authors' note: Science fiction writers construct an imaginary future; historians attempt to reconstruct the past. Ultimately, both are seeking to understand the present. In this essay, we blend the two genres to imagine a future historian looking back on a past that is our present and (possible) future. The occasion is the tercentenary of the end of Western culture (1540 – 2073); the dilemma being addressed is how we – the children of the Enlightenment – failed to act on robust information about climate change and knowledge of the damaging events that were about to unfold. Our historian concludes that a second Dark Age had fallen on Western civilization, in which denial and self-deception, rooted in an ideological fixation on “free” markets, disabled the world's powerful nations in the face of tragedy. Moreover, the scientists who best understood the problem were hamstrung by their own cultural practices, which demanded an excessively stringent standard for accepting claims of any kind – even those involving imminent threats. Here, our future historian, living in the Second People's Republic of China, recounts the events of the Period of the Penumbra (1988 – 2073) that led to the Great Collapse and Mass Migration (2074).

Within the syntaxial bends of the India‐Asia collision the Himalaya terminate abruptly in a pair of metamorphic massifs. Nanga Parbat in the west and Namche Barwa in the east are actively deforming antiformal domes which expose Quaternary metamorphic rocks and granites. The massifs are transected by major Himalayan rivers (Indus and Tsangpo) and are loci of deep and rapid exhumation. On the basis of velocity and attenuation tomography and microseismic, magnetotelluric, geochronological, petrological, structural, and geomorphic data we have collected at Nanga Parbat we propose a model in which this intense metamorphic and structural reworking of crustal lithosphere is a consequence of strain focusing caused by significant erosion within deep gorges cut by the Indus and Tsangpo as these rivers turn sharply toward the foreland and exit their host syntaxes. The localization of this phenomenon at the terminations of the Himalayan arc owes its origin to both regional and local feedbacks between erosion and tectonics.

Cyanobacteria are thought to be the main N(2)-fixing organisms (diazotrophs) in marine pelagic waters, but recent molecular analyses indicate that non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs are also present and active. Existing data are, however, restricted geographically and by limited sequencing depths. Our analysis of 79,090 nitrogenase (nifH) PCR amplicons encoding 7,468 unique proteins from surface samples (ten DNA samples and two RNA samples) collected at ten marine locations world-wide provides the first in-depth survey of a functional bacterial gene and yield insights into the composition and diversity of the nifH gene pool in marine waters. Great divergence in nifH composition was observed between sites. Cyanobacteria-like genes were most frequent among amplicons from the warmest waters, but overall the data set was dominated by nifH sequences most closely related to non-cyanobacteria. Clusters related to Alpha-, Beta-, Gamma-, and Delta-Proteobacteria were most common and showed distinct geographic distributions. Sequences related to anaerobic bacteria (nifH Cluster III) were generally rare, but preponderant in cold waters, especially in the Arctic. Although the two transcript samples were dominated by unicellular cyanobacteria, 42% of the identified non-cyanobacterial nifH clusters from the corresponding DNA samples were also detected in cDNA. The study indicates that non-cyanobacteria account for a substantial part of the nifH gene pool in marine surface waters and that these genes are at least occasionally expressed. The contribution of non-cyanobacterial diazotrophs to the global N(2) fixation budget cannot be inferred from sequence data alone, but the prevalence of non-cyanobacterial nifH genes and transcripts suggest that these bacteria are ecologically significant.

This paper investigates the use of fractional order (FO) controllers for a microgrid. The microgrid employs various autonomous generation systems like wind turbine generator, solar photovoltaic, diesel energy generator, and fuel-cells. Other storage devices like the battery energy storage system and the flywheel energy storage system are also present in the power network. An FO control strategy is employed and the FO-proportional integral derivative (PID) controller parameters are tuned with a global optimization algorithm to meet system performance specifications. A kriging based surrogate modeling technique is employed to alleviate the issue of expensive objective function evaluation for the optimization based controller tuning. Numerical simulations are reported to prove the validity of the proposed methods. The results for both the FO and the integer order controllers are compared with standard evolutionary optimization techniques, and the relative merits and demerits of the kriging based surrogate modeling are discussed. This kind of optimization technique is not only limited to this specific case of microgrid control, but also can be ported to other computationally expensive power system optimization problems.

The elevated arsenic (As) content of groundwater from wells across Bangladesh and several other South Asian countries is estimated to slowly poison at least 100 million people. The heterogeneous distribution of dissolved arsenic in the subsurface complicates understanding of its release from the sediment matrix into the groundwater, as well as the design of mitigation strategies. Using the tritium‐helium ( 3 H/ 3 He) groundwater dating technique, we show that there is a linear correlation between groundwater age at depths <20 m and dissolved As concentration, with an average slope of 19 μ g L −1 yr −1 (monitoring wells only). We propose that either the kinetics of As mobilization or the removal of As by groundwater flushing is the mechanism underlying this relationship. In either case, the spatial variability of As concentrations in the top 20 m of the shallow aquifers can to a large extent be attributed to groundwater age controlled by the hydrogeological heterogeneity in the local groundwater flow system.

Viral ecology is a rapidly progressing area of research, as molecular methods have improved significantly for targeted research on specific populations and whole communities. To interpret and synthesize global viral diversity and distribution, it is feasible to assess whether macroecology concepts can apply to marine viruses. We review how viral and host life history and physical properties can influence viral distribution in light of biogeography and metacommunity ecology paradigms. We highlight analytical approaches that can be applied to emerging global data sets and meta-analyses to identify individual taxa with global influence and drivers of emergent properties that influence microbial community structure by drawing on examples across the spectrum of viral taxa, from RNA to ssDNA and dsDNA viruses.

Effective handwashing with soap requires reliable access to water supplies. However, more than three billion persons do not have household-level access to piped water. This research addresses the challenge of improving hand hygiene within water-constrained environments. The antimicrobial efficacy of alcohol-based hand sanitizer, a waterless hand hygiene product, was evaluated and compared with handwashing with soap and water in field conditions in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Hand sanitizer use by mothers resulted in 0.66 and 0.64 log reductions per hand of Escherichia coli and fecal streptococci, respectively. In comparison, handwashing with soap resulted in 0.50 and 0.25 log reductions per hand of E. coli and fecal streptococci, respectively. Hand sanitizer was significantly better than handwashing with respect to reduction in levels of fecal streptococci (P = 0.01). The feasibility and health impacts of promoting hand sanitizer as an alternative hand hygiene option for water-constrained environments should be assessed.

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission is a swath mapping radar interferometer that would provide new measurements of inland water surface elevation (WSE) for rivers, lakes, wetlands, and reservoirs. SWOT WSE estimates would provide a source of information for characterizing streamflow globally and would complement existing <i xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">in situ</i> gage networks. In this paper, we evaluate the accuracy of river discharge estimates that would be obtained from SWOT measurements over the Ohio river and eleven of its major tributaries within the context of a virtual mission (VM). SWOT VM measurements are obtained by using an instrument measurement model coupled to simulated WSE from the hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP, using USGS streamflow gages as boundary conditions and validation data. Most model pixels were estimated two or three times per 22-day orbit period. These measurements are then input into an algorithm to obtain estimates of river depth and discharge. The algorithm is based on Manning's equation, in which river width and slope are obtained from SWOT, and roughness is estimated <i xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">a priori.</i> SWOT discharge estimates are compared to the discharge simulated by LISFLOOD-FP. Instantaneous discharge estimates over the one-year evaluation period had median normalized root mean square error of 10.9%, and 86% of all instantaneous errors are less than 25%.

Abstract A backstripping analysis of 225 wells located within the Sirt Basin, Libya, provides new constraints on the development of the Sirt Basin. Four tectonic phases are identified from Late Jurassic to present. The presentation of contour maps of subsidence and crustal stretching allows spatial and temporal variations in stretching to be visualized. A close match is observed with stretching phases documented for other African basins, consistent with discrete phases in the opening of the Tethys and Atlantic. Rifting and reactivation appear to be primarily controlled by the orientation of the basin and the underlying basement structure with respect to stress directions. The tectonic subsidence curves have also been forward modeled with an automated modeling technique to quantify the variation in timing and the magnitude of rifting. The tectonic subsidence history of the Sirt Basin is characterized by periods of stretching, alternating with periods of relative tectonic quiescence and thermal subsidence. Stretching started at the centers of the troughs and migrated toward the platform crests.

The total heat gained by the North Atlantic Ocean over the past 50 years is equivalent to a basinwide increase in the flux of heat across the ocean surface of 0.4 +/- 0.05 watts per square meter. We show, however, that this basin has not warmed uniformly: Although the tropics and subtropics have warmed, the subpolar ocean has cooled. These regional differences require local surface heat flux changes (+/-4 watts per square meter) much larger than the basinwide average. Model investigations show that these regional differences can be explained by large-scale, decadal variability in wind and buoyancy forcing as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Whether the overall heat gain is due to anthropogenic warming is difficult to confirm because strong natural variability in this ocean basin is potentially masking such input at the present time.

Critical GIS emphasized the ways in which social, political, and economic inequalities are (re)produced through spatial information technologies and attendant practices. In the mid‐1990s through the early 2000s, feminist interventions challenged the presumed gender neutrality and universality of GIS and brought gender to the fore of Critical GIS concerns. However, the rise of nascent web‐based spatial information technologies—or new spatial media—signals the need to extend this work to determine how it is that gender matters differently in this newly diversified, pervasive, and public context of geographic information technologies. Building on an analysis of online commentaries and an assessment of the functions and promotional material of several illustrative applications, we argue that gender continues to “matter” vis‐à‐vis new spatial media in three key dimensions: i) new practices of data creation and curation; ii) affordances of new technologies; and iii) new digital spatial mediations of everyday life.

Historically, the relationship between economic development and environmental protection has been seen as one of mutual antagonism. Those who have been primarily interested in the performance of the economy have generally perceived environmental protection to be a brake on growth. Conversely, those who have been principally concerned about the quality of the environment have tended to see economic development as the root of the environmental problem. It can be argued that the consequent conflict between industrialists and environmentalists has defined the climate of environmental politics to such a degree that the level and nature of environmental policy making have been severely constrained.&#13;\nThis conflict is clearly justified in some instances. But in recent years the concept of 'ecological modernisation' has been developed to try to move beyond it.' Ecological modemisation proposes that policies for economic development and environmental protection can be combined to synergistic effect. Rather than seeing environmental protection as a brake on growth, ecological modernisation promotes the application of stringent environmental policy as a positive influence on economic efficiency and technological innovation. Similarly, rather than perceiving economic development to be the source of environmental decline, ecological modernisation seeks to harness the forces of entrepreneurship for environmental gain. Thus, ecological modernisation suggests that economic and environmental goals can be integrated within the framework of an advanced industrial economy.

Tropical instability waves (TIWs), with a typical wavelength of 1000 km and period of 30 days, cause the equatorial front to meander and result in SST variations on the order of 1-2C. Vertical soundings of temperature, humidity, and wind velocity were obtained on board a Japanese research vessel, which sailed through three fully developed SST waves from 140 to 110W along 2N during 21-28 September 1999. A strong temperature inversion is observed throughout the cruise along 2N, capping the planetary boundary layer (PBL) that is 1-1.5 km deep. Temperature response to TIW-induced SST changes penetrates the whole depth of the PBL. In response to an SST increase, air temperature rises in the lowest kilometer and shows a strong cooling at the mean inversion height. As a result, this temperature dipole is associated with little TIW signal in the observed sea level pressure (SLP).

Periodontal disease is more prevalent and more severe in diabetic than in non-diabetic individuals but the magnitude of this increase is still being debated. This prospective, cross-sectional study compared the periodontal status of 118 diabetic men and 115 age-matched non-diabetic men. Plaque and gingival indices, bleeding scores, probing depth, loss of attachment, and number of missing teeth were measured in a blinded manner. Smoking status, glycemic control, socioeconomic status, and previous dental care were also assessed. These parameters were significantly higher in diabetic than non-diabetic men: plaque index, P < 0.0001; gingival index, P < 0.0002; bleeding score, P < 0.0001; probing depth, P = 0.0059; loss of attachment, P < 0.0001; and missing teeth, P < 0.005. These parameters were significantly higher in smokers than non-smokers: gingival index, probing depth, and loss of attachment. The duration of diabetes was not significantly related to the periodontal measures. Glycemic control as assessed by fasting plasma glucose and glycohemoglobin values was not significantly correlated to periodontal status. These studies indicate, for this study group, that diabetes significantly affects all measured parameters of periodontal status.

Evidence of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections in the southern high latitude climate has been identified, although the mechanisms that might lead to such far‐reaching teleconnections remain unresolved. Here we propose one such mechanism‐the regional mean meridional atmospheric circulation (the regional Ferrel Cell)‐responsible for the covariability of the ENSO and Antarctic Dipole (ADP; a predominant interannually‐varying signal in the southern high latitudes). It is found that the altered storm tracks associated with the ENSO variability influence the regional Ferrel Cell indirectly by changing the meridional eddy heat flux divergence and convergence, and shifting the latent heat release zone. The changes of the regional Ferrel Cell then influence the southern high latitude climate by modulating the mean meridional heat flux.

engineered particle concentrations in surface waters. The quantitative data produced in this work can be used as input for modeling studies and pave the road toward routine monitoring of ENMs in environmental systems, validation of ENM fate models, and more accurate ENM exposure and risk assessment.