Department of Health Research

Central venous catheters permit the measurement of hemodynamic variables that cannot be measured accurately by noninvasive means. They also allow delivery of medications and nutritional support. More than 15 percent of patients, however, have a serious mechanical, infectious, or thrombotic complication related to the use of a central venous catheter. This review explains strategies for minimizing the frequency of such complications. An accompanying video shows techniques for catheter insertion by the internal jugular and subclavian routes.

Abstract. For high dimensional supervised learning problems, often using problem specific assumptions can lead to greater accuracy. For problems with grouped covariates, which are believed to have sparse effects both on a group and within group level, we introduce a regularized model for linear regression with ℓ1 and ℓ2 penalties. We discuss the sparsity and other regularization properties of the optimal fit for this model, and show that it has the desired effect of group-wise and within group sparsity. We propose an algorithm to fit the model via accelerated generalized gradient descent, and extend this model and algorithm to convex loss functions. We also demonstrate the efficacy of our model and the efficiency of our algorithm on simulated data.

A debate has recently arisen over the use of racial classification in medicine and biomedical research. In particular, with the completion of a rough draft of the human genome, some have suggested that racial classification may not be useful for biomedical studies, since it reflects “a fairly small number of genes that describe appearance”1 and “there is no basis in the genetic code for race.”2 In part on the basis of these conclusions, some have argued for the exclusion of racial and ethnic classification from biomedical research.3 In the United States, race and ethnic background have been used as cause . . .

BACKGROUND: Eight randomized trials have evaluated whether the prophylactic use of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) improves survival among patients who are at risk for sudden death due to left ventricular systolic dysfunction but who have not had a life-threatening ventricular arrhythmia. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of the ICD in the populations represented in these primary-prevention trials. METHODS: We developed a Markov model of the cost, quality of life, survival, and incremental cost-effectiveness of the prophylactic implantation of an ICD, as compared with control therapy, among patients with survival and mortality rates similar to those in each of the clinical trials. We modeled the efficacy of the ICD as a reduction in the relative risk of death on the basis of the hazard ratios reported in the individual clinical trials. RESULTS: Use of the ICD increased lifetime costs in every trial. Two trials--the Coronary Artery Bypass Graft (CABG) Patch Trial and the Defibrillator in Acute Myocardial Infarction Trial (DINAMIT)--found that the prophylactic implantation of an ICD did not reduce the risk of death and thus was both more expensive and less effective than control therapy. For the other six trials--the Multicenter Automatic Defibrillator Implantation Trial (MADIT) I, MADIT II, the Multicenter Unsustained Tachycardia Trial (MUSTT), the Defibrillators in Non-Ischemic Cardiomyopathy Treatment Evaluation (DEFINITE) trial, the Comparison of Medical Therapy, Pacing, and Defibrillation in Heart Failure (COMPANION) trial, and the Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure Trial (SCD-HeFT)--the use of an ICD was projected to add between 1.01 and 2.99 quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and between 68,300 dollars and 101,500 dollars in cost. Using base-case assumptions, we found that the cost-effectiveness of the ICD as compared with control therapy in these six populations ranged from 34,000 dollars to 70,200 dollars per QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses showed that this cost-effectiveness ratio would remain below 100,000 dollars per QALY as long as the ICD reduced mortality for seven or more years. CONCLUSIONS: Prophylactic implantation of an ICD has a cost-effectiveness ratio below 100,000 dollars per QALY gained in populations in which a significant device-related reduction in mortality has been demonstrated.

BACKGROUND: Although exercise parameters such as intensity and format have been shown to influence exercise participation rates and physiological outcomes in the short term, few data are available evaluating their longer-term effects. The study objective was to determine the 2-year effects of differing intensities and formats of endurance exercise on exercise participation rates, fitness, and plasma HDL cholesterol levels among healthy older adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: Higher-intensity, group-based exercise training; higher-intensity, home-based exercise; and lower-intensity, home-based exercise were compared in a 2-year randomized trial. Participants were 149 men and 120 postmenopausal women 50 to 65 years of age who were sedentary and free of cardiovascular disease. Recruitment was achieved through a random digit-dial community telephone survey and media promotion. All exercise occurred in community settings. For higher-intensity exercise training, three 40-minute endurance training sessions per week were prescribed at 73% to 88% of peak treadmill heart rate. For lower-intensity exercise, five 30-minute endurance training sessions per week were prescribed at 60% to 73% of peak treadmill heart rate. Treadmill exercise performance, lipoprotein levels and other heart disease risk factors, and exercise adherence were evaluated at baseline and across the 2-year period. Treadmill exercise test performance improved for all three training conditions during year 1 and was successfully maintained during year 2, particularly for subjects in the higher-intensity, home-based condition. Subjects in that condition also showed the greatest year 2 exercise adherence rates (P < .003). Although no significant increases in HDL cholesterol were observed during year 1, by the end of year 2 subjects in the two home-based training conditions showed small but significant HDL cholesterol increases over baseline (P < .01). The increases were particularly pronounced for subjects in the lower-intensity condition, whose exercise prescription required more frequent exercise sessions per week. For all exercise conditions, increases in HDL cholesterol were associated with decreases in waist-to-hip ratio in both men and women (P < .04). CONCLUSIONS: While older adults can benefit from initiating a regular regimen of moderate-intensity exercise in terms of improved fitness levels and small improvements in HDL cholesterol levels, the time frame needed to achieve HDL cholesterol change (2 years) may be longer than that reported previously for younger populations. Frequency of participation may be particularly important for achieving such changes. Supervised home-based exercise regimens represent a safe, attractive alternative for achieving sustained participation.

<h2>Summary</h2><h3>Background</h3> The burden of diabetes is increasing rapidly in India but a systematic understanding of its distribution and time trends is not available for every state of India. We present a comprehensive analysis of the time trends and heterogeneity in the distribution of diabetes burden across all states of India between 1990 and 2016. <h3>Methods</h3> We analysed the prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of diabetes in the states of India from 1990 to 2016 using all available data sources that could be accessed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, and assessed heterogeneity across the states. The states were placed in four groups based on epidemiological transition level (ETL), defined on the basis of the ratio of DALYs from communicable diseases to those from non-communicable diseases and injuries combined, with a low ratio denoting high ETL and vice versa. We assessed the contribution of risk factors to diabetes DALYs and the relation of overweight (body-mass index 25 kg/m² or more) with diabetes prevalence. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the point estimates. <h3>Findings</h3> The number of people with diabetes in India increased from 26·0 million (95% UI 23·4–28·6) in 1990 to 65·0 million (58·7–71·1) in 2016. The prevalence of diabetes in adults aged 20 years or older in India increased from 5·5% (4·9–6·1) in 1990 to 7·7% (6·9–8·4) in 2016. The prevalence in 2016 was highest in Tamil Nadu and Kerala (high ETL) and Delhi (higher-middle ETL), followed by Punjab and Goa (high ETL) and Karnataka (higher-middle ETL). The age-standardised DALY rate for diabetes increased in India by 39·6% (32·1–46·7) from 1990 to 2016, which was the highest increase among major non-communicable diseases. The age-standardised diabetes prevalence and DALYs increased in every state, with the percentage increase among the highest in several states in the low and lower-middle ETL state groups. The most important risk factor for diabetes in India was overweight to which 36·0% (22·6–49·2) of the diabetes DALYs in 2016 could be attributed. The prevalence of overweight in adults in India increased from 9·0% (8·7–9·3) in 1990 to 20·4% (19·9–20·8) in 2016; this prevalence increased in every state of the country. For every 100 overweight adults aged 20 years or older in India, there were 38 adults (34–42) with diabetes, compared with the global average of 19 adults (17–21) in 2016. <h3>Interpretation</h3> The increase in health loss from diabetes since 1990 in India is the highest among major non-communicable diseases. With this increase observed in every state of the country, and the relative rate of increase highest in several less developed low ETL states, policy action that takes these state-level differences into account is needed urgently to control this potentially explosive public health situation. <h3>Funding</h3> Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

Background: Major depressive disorder is one of the most common, burdensome, and costly psychiatric disorders worldwide in adults. Pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments are available; however, because of inadequate resources, antidepressants are used more frequently than psychological interventions. Prescription of these agents should be informed by the best available evidence. Therefore, we aimed to update and expand our previous work to compare and rank antidepressants for the acute treatment of adults with unipolar major depressive disorder. Methods: We did a systematic review and network meta-analysis. We searched Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CINAHL, Embase, LILACS database, MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, PsycINFO, the websites of regulatory agencies, and international registers for published and unpublished, double-blind, randomised controlled trials from their inception to Jan 8, 2016. We included placebo-controlled and head-to-head trials of 21 antidepressants used for the acute treatment of adults (≥18 years old and of both sexes) with major depressive disorder diagnosed according to standard operationalised criteria. We excluded quasi-randomised trials and trials that were incomplete or included 20% or more of participants with bipolar disorder, psychotic depression, or treatment-resistant depression; or patients with a serious concomitant medical illness. We extracted data following a predefined hierarchy. In network meta-analysis, we used group-level data. We assessed the studies’ risk of bias in accordance to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions, and certainty of evidence using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation framework. Primary outcomes were efficacy (response rate) and acceptability (treatment discontinuations due to any cause). We estimated summary odds ratios (ORs) using pairwise and network meta-analysis with random effects. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42012002291. Findings: We identified 28 552 citations and of these included 522 trials comprising 116 477 participants. In terms of efficacy, all antidepressants were more effective than placebo, with ORs ranging between 2.13 (95% credible interval [CrI] 1.89–2.41) for amitriptyline and 1.37 (1.16–1.63) for reboxetine. For acceptability, only agomelatine (OR 0.84, 95% CrI 0.72–0.97) and fluoxetine (0.88, 0.80–0.96) were associated with fewer dropouts than placebo, whereas clomipramine was worse than placebo (1.30, 1.01–1.68). When all trials were considered, differences in ORs between antidepressants ranged from 1.15 to 1.55 for efficacy and from 0.64 to 0.83 for acceptability, with wide CrIs on most of the comparative analyses. In head-to-head studies, agomelatine, amitriptyline, escitalopram, mirtazapine, paroxetine, venlafaxine, and vortioxetine were more effective than other antidepressants (range of ORs 1.19–1.96), whereas fluoxetine, fluvoxamine, reboxetine, and trazodone were the least efficacious drugs (0.51–0.84). For acceptability, agomelatine, citalopram, escitalopram, fluoxetine, sertraline, and vortioxetine were more tolerable than other antidepressants (range of ORs 0.43–0.77), whereas amitriptyline, clomipramine, duloxetine, fluvoxamine, reboxetine, trazodone, and venlafaxine had the highest dropout rates (1.30–2.32). 46 (9%) of 522 trials were rated as high risk of bias, 380 (73%) trials as moderate, and 96 (18%) as low; and the certainty of evidence was moderate to very low. Interpretation: All antidepressants were more efficacious than placebo in adults with major depressive disorder. Smaller differences between active drugs were found when placebo-controlled trials were included in the analysis, whereas there was more variability in efficacy and acceptability in head-to-head trials. These results should serve evidence-based practice and inform patients, physicians, guideline developers, and policy makers on the relative merits of the different antidepressants. (Reprinted with permission from Lancet 2018; 391:1357-66)

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of exercise regimens and medications on systolic blood pressure (SBP). DATA SOURCES: Medline (via PubMed) and the Cochrane Library. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE-I), angiotensin-2 receptor blockers (ARBs), β-blockers, calcium channel blockers (CCBs) and diuretics were identified from existing Cochrane reviews. A previously published meta-analysis of exercise interventions was updated to identify recent RCTs that tested the SBP-lowering effects of endurance, dynamic resistance, isometric resistance, and combined endurance and resistance exercise interventions (up to September 2018). DESIGN: Random-effects network meta-analysis. OUTCOME: Difference in mean change from baseline SBP between comparator treatments (change from baseline in one group minus that in the other group) and its 95% credible interval (95% CrI), measured in mmHg. RESULTS: We included a total of 391 RCTs, 197 of which evaluated exercise interventions (10 461 participants) and 194 evaluated antihypertensive medications (29 281 participants). No RCTs compared directly exercise against medications. While all medication trials included hypertensive populations, only 56 exercise trials included hypertensive participants (≥140 mmHg), corresponding to 3508 individuals. In a 10% random sample, risk of bias was higher in exercise RCTs, primarily due to lack of blinding and incomplete outcome data. In analyses that combined all populations, antihypertensive medications achieved higher reductions in baseline SBP compared with exercise interventions (mean difference -3.96 mmHg, 95% CrI -5.02 to -2.91). Compared with control, all types of exercise (including combination of endurance and resistance) and all classes of antihypertensive medications were effective in lowering baseline SBP. Among hypertensive populations, there were no detectable differences in the SBP-lowering effects of ACE-I, ARB, β-blocker and diuretic medications when compared with endurance or dynamic resistance exercise. There was no detectable inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons. Although there was evidence of small-study effects, this affected both medication and exercise trials. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of exercise interventions on SBP remains under-studied, especially among hypertensive populations. Our findings confirm modest but consistent reductions in SBP in many studied exercise interventions across all populations but individuals receiving medications generally achieved greater reductions than those following structured exercise regimens. Assuming equally reliable estimates, the SBP-lowering effect of exercise among hypertensive populations appears similar to that of commonly used antihypertensive medications. Generalisability of these findings to real-world clinical settings should be further evaluated.

BACKGROUND: Studies that have evaluated the use of intravenous vitamin C in adults with sepsis who were receiving vasopressor therapy in the intensive care unit (ICU) have shown mixed results with respect to the risk of death and organ dysfunction. METHODS: In this randomized, placebo-controlled trial, we assigned adults who had been in the ICU for no longer than 24 hours, who had proven or suspected infection as the main diagnosis, and who were receiving a vasopressor to receive an infusion of either vitamin C (at a dose of 50 mg per kilogram of body weight) or matched placebo administered every 6 hours for up to 96 hours. The primary outcome was a composite of death or persistent organ dysfunction (defined by the use of vasopressors, invasive mechanical ventilation, or new renal-replacement therapy) on day 28. RESULTS: A total of 872 patients underwent randomization (435 to the vitamin C group and 437 to the control group). The primary outcome occurred in 191 of 429 patients (44.5%) in the vitamin C group and in 167 of 434 patients (38.5%) in the control group (risk ratio, 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04 to 1.40; P = 0.01). At 28 days, death had occurred in 152 of 429 patients (35.4%) in the vitamin C group and in 137 of 434 patients (31.6%) in the placebo group (risk ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.40) and persistent organ dysfunction in 39 of 429 patients (9.1%) and 30 of 434 patients (6.9%), respectively (risk ratio, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.83 to 2.05). Findings were similar in the two groups regarding organ-dysfunction scores, biomarkers, 6-month survival, health-related quality of life, stage 3 acute kidney injury, and hypoglycemic episodes. In the vitamin C group, one patient had a severe hypoglycemic episode and another had a serious anaphylaxis event. CONCLUSIONS: In adults with sepsis receiving vasopressor therapy in the ICU, those who received intravenous vitamin C had a higher risk of death or persistent organ dysfunction at 28 days than those who received placebo. (Funded by the Lotte and John Hecht Memorial Foundation; LOVIT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03680274.).

PURPOSE: To examine the relationships between disordered eating, menstrual irregularity, and low bone mineral density (BMD) in young female runners. METHODS: Subjects were 91 competitive female distance runners aged 18-26 yr. Disordered eating was measured by the Eating Disorder Inventory (EDI). Menstrual irregularity was defined as oligo/amenorrhea (0-9 menses per year). BMD was measured by dual x-ray absorptiometry. RESULTS: An elevated score on the EDI (highest quartile) was associated with oligo/amenorrhea, after adjusting for percent body fat, age, miles run per week, age at menarche, and dietary fat, (OR [95% CI]: 4.6 [1.1-18.6]). Oligo/amenorrheic runners had lower BMD than eumenorrheic runners at the spine (-5%), hip (-6%), and whole body (-3%), even after accounting for weight, percent body fat, EDI score, and age at menarche. Eumenorrheic runners with elevated EDI scores had lower BMD than eumenorrheic runners with normal EDI scores at the spine (-11%), with trends at the hip (-5%), and whole body (-5%), after adjusting for differences in weight and percent body fat. Runners with both an elevated EDI score and oligo/amenorrhea had no further reduction in BMD than runners with only one of these risk factors. CONCLUSION: In young competitive female distance runners, (i) disordered eating is strongly related to menstrual irregularity, (ii) menstrual irregularity is associated with low BMD, and (iii) disordered eating is associated with low BMD in the absence of menstrual irregularity.

The advent of immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) in modern oncology has significantly improved survival in several cancer settings. A subgroup of women with breast cancer (BC) has immunogenic infiltration of lymphocytes with expression of programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1). These patients may potentially benefit from ICI targeting the programmed death 1 (PD-1)/PD-L1 signaling axis. The use of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) as predictive and prognostic biomarkers has been under intense examination. Emerging data suggest that TILs are associated with response to both cytotoxic treatments and immunotherapy, particularly for patients with triple-negative BC. In this review from The International Immuno-Oncology Biomarker Working Group, we discuss (a) the biological understanding of TILs, (b) their analytical and clinical validity and efforts toward the clinical utility in BC, and (c) the current status of PD-L1 and TIL testing across different continents, including experiences from low-to-middle-income countries, incorporating also the view of a patient advocate. This information will help set the stage for future approaches to optimize the understanding and clinical utilization of TIL analysis in patients with BC.

Background: Previous studies found that percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) does not improve outcome compared with medical therapy (MT) in patients with stable coronary artery disease, but PCI was guided by angiography alone. FAME 2 trial (Fractional Flow Reserve Versus Angiography for Multivessel Evaluation) compared PCI guided by fractional flow reserve with best MT in patients with stable coronary artery disease to assess clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness. Methods: A total of 888 patients with stable single-vessel or multivessel coronary artery disease with reduced fractional flow reserve were randomly assigned to PCI plus MT (n=447) or MT alone (n=441). Major adverse cardiac events included death, myocardial infarction, and urgent revascularization. Costs were calculated on the basis of resource use and Medicare reimbursement rates. Changes in quality-adjusted life-years were assessed with utilities determined by the European Quality of Life–5 Dimensions health survey at baseline and over follow-up. Results: Major adverse cardiac events at 3 years were significantly lower in the PCI group compared with the MT group (10.1% versus 22.0%; P &lt;0.001), primarily as a result of a lower rate of urgent revascularization (4.3% versus 17.2%; P &lt;0.001). Death and myocardial infarction were numerically lower in the PCI group (8.3% versus 10.4%; P =0.28). Angina was significantly less severe in the PCI group at all follow-up points to 3 years. Mean initial costs were higher in the PCI group ($9944 versus $4440; P &lt;0.001) but by 3 years were similar between the 2 groups ($16 792 versus $16 737; P =0.94). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for PCI compared with MT was $17 300 per quality-adjusted life-year at 2 years and $1600 per quality-adjusted life-year at 3 years. The above findings were robust in sensitivity analyses. ConclusionS: PCI of lesions with reduced fractional flow reserve improves long-term outcome and is economically attractive compared with MT alone in patients with stable coronary artery disease. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01132495.

BACKGROUND: A systematic understanding of suicide mortality trends over time at the subnational level for India's 1·3 billion people, 18% of the global population, is not readily available. Thus, we aimed to report time trends of suicide deaths, and the heterogeneity in its distribution between the states of India from 1990 to 2016. METHODS: As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016, we estimated suicide death rates (SDRs) for both sexes in each state of India from 1990 to 2016. We used various data sources for estimating cause-specific mortality in India. For suicide mortality in India before 2000, estimates were based largely on GBD covariates. For each state, we calculated the ratio of the observed SDR to the rate expected in geographies globally with similar GBD Socio-demographic Index in 2016 (ie, the observed-to-expected ratio); and assessed the age distribution of suicide deaths, and the men-to-women ratio of SDR over time. Finally, we assessed the probability for India and the states of reaching the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target of a one-third reduction in SDR from 2015 to 2030, using location-wise trends of the age-standardised SDR from 1990 to 2016. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the point estimates. FINDINGS: There were 230 314 (95% UI 194 058-250 260) suicide deaths in India in 2016. India's contribution to global suicide deaths increased from 25·3% in 1990 to 36·6% in 2016 among women, and from 18·7% to 24·3% among men. Age-standardised SDR among women in India reduced by 26·7% from 20·0 (95% UI 16·5-23·5) in 1990 to 14·7 (13·1-16·2) per 100 000 in 2016, but the age-standardised SDR among men was the same in 1990 (22·3 [95% UI 14·4-27·4] per 100 000) and 2016 (21·2 [14·6-23·6] per 100 000). SDR in women was 2·1 times higher in India than the global average in 2016, and the observed-to-expected ratio was 2·74, ranging from 0·45 to 4·54 between the states. SDR in men was 1·4 times higher in India than the global average in 2016, with an observed-to-expected ratio of 1·31, ranging from 0·40 to 2·42 between the states. There was a ten-fold variation between the states in the SDR for women and six-fold variation for men in 2016. The men-to-women ratio of SDR for India was 1·34 in 2016, ranging from 0·97 to 4·11 between the states. The highest age-specific SDRs among women in 2016 were for ages 15-29 years and 75 years or older, and among men for ages 75 years or older. Suicide was the leading cause of death in India in 2016 for those aged 15-39 years; 71·2% of the suicide deaths among women and 57·7% among men were in this age group. If the trends observed up to 2016 continue, the probability of India achieving the SDG SDR reduction target in 2030 is zero, and the majority of the states with 81·3% of India's population have less than 10% probability, three states have a probability of 10·3-15·0%, and six have a probability of 25·1-36·7%. INTERPRETATION: India's proportional contribution to global suicide deaths is high and increasing. SDR in India is higher than expected for its Socio-Demographic Index level, especially for women, with substantial variations in the magnitude and men-to-women ratio between the states. India must develop a suicide prevention strategy that takes into account these variations in order to address this major public health problem. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

BACKGROUND: India has made substantial progress in improving child survival over the past few decades, but a comprehensive understanding of child mortality trends at disaggregated geographical levels is not available. We present a detailed analysis of subnational trends of child mortality to inform efforts aimed at meeting the India National Health Policy (NHP) and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets for child mortality. METHODS: We assessed the under-5 mortality rate (U5MR) and neonatal mortality rate (NMR) from 2000 to 2017 in 5 × 5 km grids across India, and for the districts and states of India, using all accessible data from various sources including surveys with subnational geographical information. The 31 states and groups of union territories were categorised into three groups using their Socio-demographic Index (SDI) level, calculated as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study on the basis of per-capita income, mean education, and total fertility rate in women younger than 25 years. Inequality between districts within the states was assessed using the coefficient of variation. We projected U5MR and NMR for the states and districts up to 2025 and 2030 on the basis of the trends from 2000 to 2017 and compared these projections with the NHP 2025 and SDG 2030 targets for U5MR (23 deaths and 25 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively) and NMR (16 deaths and 12 deaths per 1000 livebirths, respectively). We assessed the causes of child death and the contribution of risk factors to child deaths at the state level. FINDINGS: U5MR in India decreased from 83·1 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 76·7-90·1) in 2000 to 42·4 (36·5-50·0) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, and NMR from 38·0 (34·2-41·6) to 23·5 (20·1-27·8) per 1000 livebirths. U5MR varied 5·7 times between the states of India and 10·5 times between the 723 districts of India in 2017, whereas NMR varied 4·5 times and 8·0 times, respectively. In the low SDI states, 275 (88%) districts had a U5MR of 40 or more per 1000 livebirths and 291 (93%) districts had an NMR of 20 or more per 1000 livebirths in 2017. The annual rate of change from 2010 to 2017 varied among the districts from a 9·02% (95% UI 6·30-11·63) reduction to no significant change for U5MR and from an 8·05% (95% UI 5·34-10·74) reduction to no significant change for NMR. Inequality between districts within the states increased from 2000 to 2017 in 23 of the 31 states for U5MR and in 24 states for NMR, with the largest increases in Odisha and Assam among the low SDI states. If the trends observed up to 2017 were to continue, India would meet the SDG 2030 U5MR target but not the SDG 2030 NMR target or either of the NHP 2025 targets. To reach the SDG 2030 targets individually, 246 (34%) districts for U5MR and 430 (59%) districts for NMR would need a higher rate of improvement than they had up to 2017. For all major causes of under-5 death in India, the death rate decreased between 2000 and 2017, with the highest decline for infectious diseases, intermediate decline for neonatal disorders, and the smallest decline for congenital birth defects, although the magnitude of decline varied widely between the states. Child and maternal malnutrition was the predominant risk factor, to which 68·2% (65·8-70·7) of under-5 deaths and 83·0% (80·6-85·0) of neonatal deaths in India could be attributed in 2017; 10·8% (9·1-12·4) of under-5 deaths could be attributed to unsafe water and sanitation and 8·8% (7·0-10·3) to air pollution. INTERPRETATION: India has made gains in child survival, but there are substantial variations between the states in the magnitude and rate of decline in mortality, and even higher variations between the districts of India. Inequality between districts within states has increased for the majority of the states. The district-level trends presented here can provide crucial guidance for targeted efforts needed in India to reduce child mortality to meet the Indian and global child survival targets. District-level mortality trends along with state-level trends in causes of under-5 and neonatal death and the risk factors in this Article provide a comprehensive reference for further planning of child mortality reduction in India. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

BACKGROUND: Most data regarding the association between the glycemic index and cardiovascular disease come from high-income Western populations, with little information from non-Western countries with low or middle incomes. To fill this gap, data are needed from a large, geographically diverse population. METHODS: This analysis includes 137,851 participants between the ages of 35 and 70 years living on five continents, with a median follow-up of 9.5 years. We used country-specific food-frequency questionnaires to determine dietary intake and estimated the glycemic index and glycemic load on the basis of the consumption of seven categories of carbohydrate foods. We calculated hazard ratios using multivariable Cox frailty models. The primary outcome was a composite of a major cardiovascular event (cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) or death from any cause. RESULTS: In the study population, 8780 deaths and 8252 major cardiovascular events occurred during the follow-up period. After performing extensive adjustments comparing the lowest and highest glycemic-index quintiles, we found that a diet with a high glycemic index was associated with an increased risk of a major cardiovascular event or death, both among participants with preexisting cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio, 1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25 to 1.82) and among those without such disease (hazard ratio, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.34). Among the components of the primary outcome, a high glycemic index was also associated with an increased risk of death from cardiovascular causes. The results with respect to glycemic load were similar to the findings regarding the glycemic index among the participants with cardiovascular disease at baseline, but the association was not significant among those without preexisting cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, a diet with a high glycemic index was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and death. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).

Concerns for anaphylaxis may hamper severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunization efforts. We convened a multidisciplinary group of international experts in anaphylaxis composed of allergy, infectious disease, emergency medicine, and front-line clinicians to systematically develop recommendations regarding SARS-CoV-2 vaccine immediate allergic reactions. Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, the World Health Organizstion (WHO) global coronavirus database, and the gray literature (inception, March 19, 2021) were systematically searched. Paired reviewers independently selected studies addressing anaphylaxis after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, polyethylene glycol (PEG) and polysorbate allergy, and accuracy of allergy testing for SARS-CoV-2 vaccine allergy. Random effects models synthesized the data to inform recommendations based on the Grading of Recommendation, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) approach, agreed upon using a modified Delphi panel. The incidence of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine anaphylaxis is 7.91 cases per million (n = 41,000,000 vaccinations; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 4.02-15.59; 26 studies, moderate certainty), the incidence of 0.15 cases per million patient-years (95% CI 0.11-0.2), and the sensitivity for PEG skin testing is poor, although specificity is high (15 studies, very low certainty). We recommend vaccination over either no vaccination or performing SARS-CoV-2 vaccine/excipient screening allergy testing for individuals without history of a severe allergic reaction to the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine/excipient, and a shared decision-making paradigm in consultation with an allergy specialist for individuals with a history of a severe allergic reaction to the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine/excipient. We recommend further research to clarify SARS-CoV-2 vaccine/vaccine excipient testing utility in individuals potentially allergic to SARS-CoV2 vaccines or their excipients.

Background &amp; objectives: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at an elevated risk of contracting COVID-19. While intense occupational exposure associated with aerosol-generating procedures underlines the necessity of using personal protective equipment (PPE) by HCWs, high-transmission efficiency of the causative agent [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)] could also lead to infections beyond such settings. Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), a repurposed antimalarial drug, was empirically recommended as prophylaxis by the National COVID-19 Task Force in India to cover such added risk. Against this background, the current investigation was carried out to identify the factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCWs in the country. Methods: A case-control design was adopted and participants were randomly drawn from the countrywide COVID-19 testing data portal maintained by the ICMR. The test results and contact details of HCWs, diagnosed as positive (cases) or negative (controls) for SARS-CoV-2 using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR), were available from this database. A 20-item brief-questionnaire elicited information on place of work, procedures conducted and use of PPE. Results: Compared to controls, cases were slightly older (34.7 vs. 33.5 yr) and had more males (58 vs. 50%). In multivariate analyses, HCWs performing endotracheal intubation had higher odds of being SARS-CoV-2 infected [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 4.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-16.07]. Consumption of four or more maintenance doses of HCQ was associated with a significant decline in the odds of getting infected (AOR: 0.44; 95% CI: 0.22-0.88); a dose-response relationship existed between frequency of exposure to HCQ and such reductions (χ 2 for trend=48.88; P &lt;0.001). In addition, the use of PPE was independently associated with the reduction in odds of getting infected with SARS-CoV-2. Interpretations &amp; conclusions: Until results of clinical trials for HCQ prophylaxis become available, this study provides actionable information for policymakers to protect HCWs at the forefront of COVID-19 response. The public health message of sustained intake of HCQ prophylaxis as well as appropriate PPE use need to be considered in conjunction with risk homoeostasis operating at individual levels.

Analysis of somatic mutations in V regions of Ig genes is important for understanding various biological processes. It is customary to estimate Ag selection on Ig genes by assessment of replacement (R) as opposed to silent (S) mutations in the complementary-determining regions and S as opposed to R mutations in the framework regions. In the past such an evaluation was performed using a binomial distribution model equation, which is inappropriate for Ig genes in which mutations have four different distribution possibilities (R and S mutations in the complementary-determining region and/or framework regions of the gene). In the present work, we propose a multinomial distribution model for assessment of Ag selection. Side-by-side application of multinomial and binomial models on 86 previously established Ig sequences disclosed 8 discrepancies, leading to opposite statistical conclusions about Ag selection. We suggest the use of the multinomial model for all future analysis of Ag selection.

BACKGROUND: We describe the early experiences of adults with systemic rheumatic disease who received the COVID-19 vaccine. METHODS: From 2 April to 30 April 2021, we conducted an online, international survey of adults with systemic rheumatic disease who received COVID-19 vaccination. We collected patient-reported data on clinician communication, beliefs and intent about discontinuing disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) around the time of vaccination, and patient-reported adverse events after vaccination. RESULTS: We analysed 2860 adults with systemic rheumatic diseases who received COVID-19 vaccination (mean age 55.3 years, 86.7% female, 86.3% white). Types of COVID-19 vaccines were Pfizer-BioNTech (53.2%), Oxford/AstraZeneca (22.6%), Moderna (21.3%), Janssen/Johnson & Johnson (1.7%) and others (1.2%). The most common rheumatic disease was rheumatoid arthritis (42.3%), and 81.2% of respondents were on a DMARD. The majority (81.9%) reported communicating with clinicians about vaccination. Most (66.9%) were willing to temporarily discontinue DMARDs to improve vaccine efficacy, although many (44.3%) were concerned about rheumatic disease flares. After vaccination, the most reported patient-reported adverse events were fatigue/somnolence (33.4%), headache (27.7%), muscle/joint pains (22.8%) and fever/chills (19.9%). Rheumatic disease flares that required medication changes occurred in 4.6%. CONCLUSION: Among adults with systemic rheumatic disease who received COVID-19 vaccination, patient-reported adverse events were typical of those reported in the general population. Most patients were willing to temporarily discontinue DMARDs to improve vaccine efficacy. The relatively low frequency of rheumatic disease flare requiring medications was reassuring.

This article presents a new method for analyzing microarray time courses by identifying genes that undergo abrupt transitions in expression level, and the time at which the transitions occur. The algorithm matches the sequence of expression levels for each gene against temporal patterns having one or two transitions between two expression levels. The algorithm reports a P-value for the matching pattern of each gene, and a global false discovery rate can also be computed. After matching, genes can be sorted by the direction and time of transitions. Genes can be partitioned into sets based on the direction and time of change for further analysis, such as comparison with Gene Ontology annotations or binding site motifs. The method is evaluated on simulated and actual time-course data. On microarray data for budding yeast, it is shown that the groups of genes that change in similar ways and at similar times have significant and relevant Gene Ontology annotations.