Disaster Prevention & Water Environment Research Center

Abstract An extensive evaluation of nine global-scale high-resolution satellite-based rainfall (SBR) products is performed using a minimum of 6 years (within the period of 2000–13) of reference rainfall data derived from rain gauge networks in nine mountainous regions across the globe. The SBR products are compared to a recently released global reanalysis dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The study areas include the eastern Italian Alps, the Swiss Alps, the western Black Sea of Turkey, the French Cévennes, the Peruvian Andes, the Colombian Andes, the Himalayas over Nepal, the Blue Nile in East Africa, Taiwan, and the U.S. Rocky Mountains. Evaluation is performed at annual, monthly, and daily time scales and 0.25° spatial resolution. The SBR datasets are based on the following retrieval algorithms: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP). SBR products are categorized into those that include gauge adjustment versus unadjusted. Results show that performance of SBR is highly dependent on the rainfall variability. Many SBR products usually underestimate wet season and overestimate dry season precipitation. The performance of gauge adjustment to the SBR products varies by region and depends greatly on the representativeness of the rain gauge network.

The great success of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and its successor Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) has accelerated the development of global high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products (SPP). However, the quantitative accuracy of SPPs has to be evaluated before using these datasets in water resource applications. This study evaluates the following GPM-era and TRMM-era SPPs based on two years (2014–2015) of reference daily precipitation data from rain gauge networks in ten mountainous regions: Integrated Multi-SatellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG, version 05B and version 06B), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method (CMORPH), Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), which represents a global precipitation data-blending product. The evaluation is performed at daily and annual temporal scales, and at 0.1 deg grid resolution. It is shown that GSMaPV07 surpass the performance of IMERGV06B Final for almost all regions in terms of systematic and random error metrics. The new orographic rainfall classification in the GSMaPV07 algorithm is able to improve the detection of orographic rainfall, the rainfall amounts, and error metrics. Moreover, IMERGV05B showed significantly better performance, capturing the lighter and heavier precipitation values compared to IMERGV06B for almost all regions due to changes conducted to the morphing, where motion vectors are derived using total column water vapor for IMERGV06B.

Three-dimensional (3D) numerical analyses were conducted to investigate groundwater responses in an initially unsaturated cut slope at Lai Ping Road in Hong Kong subjected to rainfalls with various patterns, durations, and return periods. Initial and boundary conditions were established from field monitoring data. The computed results show that rainfall pattern has a significant influence on pore-water pressures in soil layers near the ground surface but its influence gradually diminishes with depth. Rainfall with an advanced storm pattern of 24 h duration was found to be the most critical because it results in the highest pore-water pressure in the slope. At a given depth, the influence of rainfall pattern on pore-water pressures depends on the initial groundwater conditions: the higher the initial water table, the smaller the influence of rainfall pattern on pore-water pressures. Under a given rainfall duration, the rise of pore-water pressure at the study site is significant only when the return period increases from 10 years to 100 years, but not from 100 years to 1000 years. Short-duration, intense rainfall causes larger variations in pore-water pressure at shallow depths, whereas long-duration rainfall has a greater influence on groundwater in deep soils because of the generally greater amount of rainfall. For prolonged rainfalls, the difference in pore-water pressure distribution resulting from different rainfall patterns is less significant than that from short-duration, intense rainfalls.Key words: Lai Ping Road, rainfall patterns, pore-water pressure distributions, suction, unsaturated slope.

In the design of flood levee systems there are many parameters and variables with associated uncertainties. This paper presents models which systematically analyze the various types of uncertainties in the hydrologic aspect as well as hydraulic aspect of design and analysis to define the risk and reliability of overtopping. Both static and time dependent risk models are developed. Results show that risk evaluated by the simple return period method can be underestimated by 10% to 50%, depending on the loading distribution model used. The risk‐safety factor relationships are shown to be very sensitive to the hydrologic loading probability model adopted, so that composite models are suggested for risk analysis.

Systematic transient analysis in water supply systems is intended to determine the reliability of water supply and the integrity of hydraulic devices when hydraulic transients (i.e., water hammers) occur. In the analysis, parameters such as wavespeed, pipe diameter, friction, and others, usually considered as known inputs in traditional water hammer models, are actually subject to uncertainties due to natural or human behaviors. The paper considers these uncertainties and investigates their effects on the reliability of water transportation systems and water supply networks under transient conditions with or without protection devices. In addition, the optimization of transient protection devices is also evaluated based on the probabilistic analysis. The results show that the probabilistic analysis method could inspect the influence of the different input uncertainties on the system responses under transient conditions and provide detailed information on the design for water supply systems and protection devices. A one-dimensional water hammer model of pipe fluid systems and Monte Carlo simulation method are used in this investigation.

Regarding urban flooding issues, applying Artificial Intelligence (AI) methodologies can provide a timely prediction of imminent incidences of flash floods. The study aims to develop and deploy an effective real-time pluvial flood forecasting AI platform. The platform integrates rainfall hyetographs embedded with uncertainty analyses as well as hydrological and hydraulic modeling. It establishes a large number synthetic of torrential rainfall events and their simulated flooding datasets. The obtained data contain 6000 sets of color-classified rainfall hyetograph maps and 300,000 simulated flooding maps (water depth) in an urban district. The generated datasets are utilized for AI image processing. Through the AI deep learning classifications, the rainfall hyetograph map feature parameters are detected and extracted. The trained features are applied to predict potential rainfall events, recognize their potential inundated water depths as well as display flooding maps in real-time. The performance assessments of the platform are evaluated by Root Means Square Error (RMSE), Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSCE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of RMSE and NSCE indicators illustrate that the methodologies and approaches of the AI platform are reliable and acceptable. However, the values of MAPE show inconsistency. Ultimately, the platform can perform and be utilized promptly in real-time and ensure sufficient lead time in order to prevent possible flooding hazards.

Several point rainfall estimation techniques including the conventionally used arithmatic average and normal ratio methods, inverse-distance method, modified normal ratio method, and method of using linear programming model are applied to the Sierra-Nevada mountainous region. In the study area, the elevation difference between the rain gages range from 70 ft to 1750 ft (21m to 534m) and the distance from 10 miles to 35 miles (18km to 63km). It is found that the recently advocated inverse-distance method fails to provide a desirable result. A method is proposed which takes into account the effect of topographic elevation variation for the region. Also, the issue about the number of index stations to be used in the estimation procedure is explored and discussed.

This paper briefly describes six techniques developed for evaluating reliability of systems with complex configuration. Also, a brief comment about the computational aspects and applicability of each technique as applied to water distribution system reliability evaluation are made. Five techniques, except the connection matrix method, are applied to a simple looped water distribution system involving four demand points and eight pipe sections. It is found that all methods yield practically the same system reliability. However, from the computational viewpoint, the cut set method with a first-order approximation is the most efficient.

Methods for risk analysis of flood levee systems that account for hydraulic and hydrologic uncertainties are incorporated into optimal design procedures. The uncertainties are considered in the expected damage functions so that the objective is to determine the optimal flood levee system design that minimizes the total expected cost. Dynamic programing (DP) and discrete differential dynamic programing (DDDP) models are developed for the optimization. The DDDP approach tremendously reduces the computation effort and provides more accurate results when compared to the DP. Through the use of an example, different design philosophies (level of risk consideration) are examined.

Sand and gravel raining from a river bed results in irregular pits on the river bed. The migration of the pits might potentially threaten the safety of downstream bridge piers and other in‐stream hydraulic structures. Models were developed to simulate the movement of pits for predicting the effect of migrating pits on in‐stream structures. In view of random characteristics inherently residing in hydraulic and hydrologic processes, it is essential for an engineer to assess the overall uncertainty features of a hydraulic model output subjected to its stochastic input parameters. As an illustration, this paper analyzes the uncertainties of a pit migration model recently proposed by Lee et al. (1990) using three methods including the first‐order variance estimation method, point estimation technique, and Latin hypercubic sampling. Comparisons of merits and limitations of these methods are also made.

BACKGROUND: Melioidosis is a severe bacterial infection caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei with a high case-fatality rate. Epidemiological and animal studies show the possibility of inhalation transmission. However, no B. pseudomallei concentrations in ambient air have been researched. Here, we developed a method to quantify ambient B. pseudomallei and then measured concentrations of ambient B. pseudomallei during the typhoon season and the non-typhoon season to determine the factors influencing ambient B. pseudomallei levels. METHODS: We quantified ambient B. pseudomallei by using a filter/real-time qPCR method in the Zoynan Region in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan. Twenty-four hour samples were collected at a sampling rate of 20 L/min every day from June 11 to December 21, 2012 including during the typhoon season (June to September) and reference season (October to December). RESULTS: We successfully developed a filtration/real-time qPCR method to quantify ambient B. pseudomallei. To our knowledge, this is the first report describing concentrations of ambient B. pseudomallei. Ambient B. pseudomallei were only detected during the typhoon season when compared to the reference season. For the typhoons affecting the Zoynan Region, the positive rates of ambient B. pseudomallei were very high at 80% to 100%. During June to December, rainfall was positively correlated with ambient B. pseudomallei with a statistical significance. Sediment at a nearby pond significantly influenced the concentration of ambient B. pseudomallei. During the typhoon month, the typhoon was positively correlated with ambient B. pseudomallei whereas wind speed was reversely correlated with ambient B. pseudomallei. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest the possibility of transmission of B. pseudomallei via inhalation during the typhoon season.

This study was aimed at assessing the performance of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) applied to the investigation of seepage in earth dams through a case study. Several abnormal leaks appeared on the downstream face of an earth dam after the dam was reconstructed to raise the maximum reservoir water level. A study was conducted to investigate the mechanism of the abnormal leakage with the assistance of ERT. Three two-dimensional (2D) ERT survey lines were deployed on the left abutments, dam crest, and downstream shell, respectively. Periodic measurements were additionally collected on the downstream shell for time-lapse measurements. To gain confidence and avoid over interpretation, the results of 2D ERT were appraised by forward modeling and synthetic inversion. Combining ERT results with geotechnical monitoring data clearly indicates the likely mechanism of abnormal seepage. Time-lapse measurements further support the inducted mechanism. Integration of ERT exploration with time-lapse ERT measurements and geotechnical monitoring data was demonstrated to better understand the possible mechanism of the abnormal seepage.

ABSTRACT Dongsha Atoll is a coral reef located in the South China Sea. The surrounding area is characterized by dangerous shoals. Historic shipwrecks mark past human activities. Due to the shallow water and risky navigational conditions in the area, a sonar survey with platforms on the water surface was not feasible. Airborne bathymetric LiDAR, which utilizes green laser for measurement, however, is a proven convenient method for studying shipwrecks around the atoll, particularly in shallow‐water areas. At a point density of about 3.5 m by 3.5 m, four shipwrecks were identified. The bathymetric measurements allow not only the length of the shipwreck to be estimated, but also its height above the sea floor. The full waveform record of the laser reflection also provided information to separate the wreckage from its surroundings. This provides an excellent working environment for marine archaeological analysis, as not only the location, but also the depth and geomorphological information can be assessed in an integrated setting. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

In the risk‐based design for hydraulic structures, the major task is the evaluation of the annual expected damage costs caused by floods. Due to the use of a limited amount of data in flood frequency analysis, the computed flood magnitude of a specified return period is subject to uncertainty. A methodology to integrate such uncertainty in the evaluation of annual expected flood damage is developed and illustrated through an example in culvert design. The effect of uncertainty in estimating flood magnitude using different hydrologic probability models with different sample sizes on the annual expected damage cost is examined. Results of the study show that the effect of the uncertainty in a flood magnitude estimate on annual expected damage is quite significant and is sensitive to the sample sizes and the probability distribution models used.

To analyze the effect of runoff on shallow landslides, a model coupling one-dimensional rainfall–runoff and two-dimensional infiltration was established to simulate rainfall, infiltration, and runoff processes. Based on Bishop’s limit equilibrium method, the slope failure of a hypothetical footslope was studied. First, conditions with and without inflow were compared. The results reveal a remarkable difference in factors of safety (FS) between the two conditions, suggesting that considering the effect of runoff is crucial for landslide modeling. In terms of a series of tests of the various magnitudes, durations, lag-time, and peak position of the hydrograph, analyses show that larger inflow leads to more accumulated infiltration and triggers landslides earlier. A long-term duration inflow decreases the stability more than short intensive inflow does. With subsequent surface inflow, slope failure may occur after rainfalls stop, owing to the inflow, and the shape of inflow hydrographs could slightly affect the variance in FS. Results also indicate the necessity of considering the surface runoff when using a numerical model to analyze landslide, particularly on a footslope.

Abstract. Regional monitoring of rock slope failures using the seismic technique is rarely undertaken due to significant source location errors; this method also still lacks the signal features needed to understand events of this type because of the complex mass movement involved. To better comprehend these types of events, 10 known events along highways in Taiwan were analyzed. First, a hybrid method (GeoLoc) composed of cross-correlation-based and amplitude-attenuation-based approaches was applied, and it produced a maximum location error of 3.19 km for the 10 events. We then analyzed the ratio of local magnitude (ML) and duration magnitude (MD) and found that a threshold of 0.85 yields successful classification between rock slope failure and earthquake. Further, GeoLoc can retrieve the seismic parameters, such as signal amplitude at the source (A0) and ML of events, which are crucial for constructing scaling law with source volume (V). Indeed, Log(V) = 1.12 ML + 3.08 and V = 77 290 A00.44 derived in this study provide the lower bound of volume estimation, as the seismic parameters based on peak amplitudes cannot represent the full process of mass loss. Second, while video records correspond to seismic signals, the processes of toppling and sliding present column- and V-shaped spectrograms, respectively. The impacts of rockfall link directly to the pulses of seismic signals. Here, all spectrogram features of events can be identified for events with volumes larger than 2000 m3, corresponding to the farthest epicenter distance of ∼ 2.5 km. These results were obtained using the GeoLoc scheme for providing the government with rapid reports for reference. Finally, a recent event on 12 June 2020 was used to examine the GeoLoc scheme's feasibility. We estimated the event's volume using two scalings: 3838 and 3019 m3. These values were roughly consistent with the volume estimation of 5142 m3 from the digital elevation model. The physical processes, including rockfall, toppling, and complex motion behaviors of rock interacting with slope inferred from the spectrogram features were comprehensively supported by the video record and field investigation. We also demonstrated that the GeoLoc scheme, which has been implemented in Sinwulyu catchment, Taiwan, can provide fast reports, including the location, volume, and physical process of events, to the public soon after they occur.

With its unique capabilities, the optical fiber Bragg grating has been used as a key component in the development of many sensors. Incorporating the theory of thin plates, the authors have developed an FBG-based pressure sensor by strategically attaching FBGs on the surface of a thin circular plate. The flexural strain in the circular plate induced by pressure applied to the circular plate is sensed by either a single FBG placed radially crossing a neutral point, or two FBGs placed respectively in zones where the strains are of opposite signs. When one FBG is used (i.e., the chirped FBG design), the applied pressure relates to the change in the chirped bandwidth of the FBG reflected waveform. When two FBGs are used (i.e., the differential FBG design), the pressure experienced by the circular plate is correlated to the difference in central wavelength from the two FBGs. In either case the sensing mechanism is immune to temperature fluctuation. The same configuration can potentially be applied for other purposes such as a load cell or displacement transducer. This paper describes the design principles of the FBG pressure sensor and demonstrates its capabilities through laboratory calibrations over a wide range of temperatures.

This study is to investigate morphological changes in the Tamsui River Estuary in Taiwan driven by multiple physical processes, such as river flows, tides, waves, and storm surges, and then to study the impacts of sediment flushing operated at the Shihmen reservoir upstream on the river estuary. An integrated coastal and estuarine processes model (CCHE2D-Coast) (Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering Two-Dimensional-Coast) was validated by simulating these physical processes in the estuary driven by three historical typhoons in 2008. The site-specifically validated model was then applied to simulate morphological changes in the estuary in response to reservoir sediment flush scenarios from the upstream. For the impact assessment of sediment flushing, a synthetic hydrological event was designed by including a historical typhoon and a typical monsoon. It was found that during the typhoon, the sediments will be mostly deposited in the estuarine river reach of Tamsui and the Wazihwei sandy beach. During the monsoon period, most of the sediments tend to be deposited in the second fishing port of Tamsui, the northern breakwater, and the estuary, while the Wazihwei sandy beach in the river mouth would be scoured by backflow. Simulations of the complex flow fields and morphological changes will facilitate the best practice of sediment management in the coastal and estuarine regions.

In this study, an ultrasonic irradiation technique was utilized to mitigate the fouling of polyethersulfone (PES) and polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) membranes. The use of ultrasound at 20 kHz was applied to a dead-end microfiltration cell in order to mitigate fouling caused by the presence of colloidal bentonite particles. The effect of ultrasonic power and pulse duration on the permeate flux recovery was examined. Measurements indicate that an increase in ultrasonic power and longer pulse duration results to a higher permeate flux recovery. In order to reduce power consumption, a low to high power shift (LHPS) and pulsation method, were investigated. Methods of cleaning such as ultrasonic irradiation, ultrasonic cleaning with forward flushing and ultrasonic cleaning with backwashing were utilized and their cleaning efficiencies were examined. The cleaning performance was assessed using the clean water flux method and scanning electron microscope analysis of the cleaned membranes. Results showed that LHPS and pulsation method both improve the permeate flux recovery but were not able to attain the 93.97 and 74.88% flux recovery for PES and PVDF that was achieved by constant-15 W ultrasonic cleaning. In addition, forward flushing and backwashing may enhance the performance of ultrasonic cleaning at 9 W but could become disadvantageous at 15 W.

In this paper, a new Stroh formalism for gradient electro-mechanics is derived for the first time, which is both mathematically concise and numerically powerful, applicable to generally coupled anisotropic material systems. Based on this new formalism, the complicated Lamb wave in flexoelectric and piezoelectric plates is investigated. The dispersion equation is obtained by solving the eigenvalue problem along with the unconditionally stable dual-variable and position method. From the obtained dispersion equation, the dispersion curves and mode shapes of the Lamb wave are calculated by the 1D form of the multidimensional moduli ratio convergence method. Two important and interesting features are observed from our analysis: One is the difference in the mode shape symmetry between the piezoelectric and flexoelectric cases, and the other is the size-dependent property of the flexoelectric effect as observed by nondimensionalization. These features are further illustrated by comparing the dispersion curves and wave-mode shapes among the three different material models (purely piezoelectric, purely flexoelectric, and flexoelectric and piezoelectric coupled). The newly derived Stroh formalism offers a robust, concise, and unified approach for dealing with strain gradient electro-mechanic materials with crystal systems of general anisotropy. The present work also explains the physical mechanism of symmetry breaking observed, as induced by flexoelectric coupling in piezoelectric materials.