Dynamiques et écologie des paysages agriforestiers

Recent advances in spectral-spatial classification of hyperspectral images are presented in this paper. Several techniques are investigated for combining both spatial and spectral information. Spatial information is extracted at the object (set of pixels) level rather than at the conventional pixel level. Mathematical morphology is first used to derive the morphological profile of the image, which includes characteristics about the size, orientation, and contrast of the spatial structures present in the image. Then, the morphological neighborhood is defined and used to derive additional features for classification. Classification is performed with support vector machines (SVMs) using the available spectral information and the extracted spatial information. Spatial postprocessing is next investigated to build more homogeneous and spatially consistent thematic maps. To that end, three presegmentation techniques are applied to define regions that are used to regularize the preliminary pixel-wise thematic map. Finally, a multiple-classifier (MC) system is defined to produce relevant markers that are exploited to segment the hyperspectral image with the minimum spanning forest algorithm. Experimental results conducted on three real hyperspectral images with different spatial and spectral resolutions and corresponding to various contexts are presented. They highlight the importance of spectral-spatial strategies for the accurate classification of hyperspectral images and validate the proposed methods.

Agricultural landscape homogenization has detrimental effects on biodiversity and key ecosystem services. Increasing agricultural landscape heterogeneity by increasing seminatural cover can help to mitigate biodiversity loss. However, the amount of seminatural cover is generally low and difficult to increase in many intensively managed agricultural landscapes. We hypothesized that increasing the heterogeneity of the crop mosaic itself (hereafter "crop heterogeneity") can also have positive effects on biodiversity. In 8 contrasting regions of Europe and North America, we selected 435 landscapes along independent gradients of crop diversity and mean field size. Within each landscape, we selected 3 sampling sites in 1, 2, or 3 crop types. We sampled 7 taxa (plants, bees, butterflies, hoverflies, carabids, spiders, and birds) and calculated a synthetic index of multitrophic diversity at the landscape level. Increasing crop heterogeneity was more beneficial for multitrophic diversity than increasing seminatural cover. For instance, the effect of decreasing mean field size from 5 to 2.8 ha was as strong as the effect of increasing seminatural cover from 0.5 to 11%. Decreasing mean field size benefited multitrophic diversity even in the absence of seminatural vegetation between fields. Increasing the number of crop types sampled had a positive effect on landscape-level multitrophic diversity. However, the effect of increasing crop diversity in the landscape surrounding fields sampled depended on the amount of seminatural cover. Our study provides large-scale, multitrophic, cross-regional evidence that increasing crop heterogeneity can be an effective way to increase biodiversity in agricultural landscapes without taking land out of agricultural production.

There is considerable evidence that biodiversity promotes multiple ecosystem functions (multifunctionality), thus ensuring the delivery of ecosystem services important for human well-being. However, the mechanisms underlying this relationship are poorly understood, especially in natural ecosystems. We develop a novel approach to partition biodiversity effects on multifunctionality into three mechanisms and apply this to European forest data. We show that throughout Europe, tree diversity is positively related with multifunctionality when moderate levels of functioning are required, but negatively when very high function levels are desired. For two well-known mechanisms, 'complementarity' and 'selection', we detect only minor effects on multifunctionality. Instead a third, so far overlooked mechanism, the 'jack-of-all-trades' effect, caused by the averaging of individual species effects on function, drives observed patterns. Simulations demonstrate that jack-of-all-trades effects occur whenever species effects on different functions are not perfectly correlated, meaning they may contribute to diversity-multifunctionality relationships in many of the world's ecosystems.

The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.

Flavescence dorée is a grapevine disease affecting European vineyards which has severe economic consequences and containing its spread is therefore considered as a major challenge for viticulture. Flavescence dorée is subject to mandatory pest control including removal of the infected vines and, in this context, automatic detection of Flavescence dorée symptomatic vines by unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing could constitute a key diagnosis instrument for growers. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the feasibility of discriminating the Flavescence dorée symptoms in red and white cultivars from healthy vine vegetation using UAV multispectral imagery. Exhaustive ground truth data and UAV multispectral imagery (visible and near-infrared domain) have been acquired in September 2015 over four selected vineyards in Southwest France. Spectral signatures of healthy and symptomatic plants were studied with a set of 20 variables computed from the UAV images (spectral bands, vegetation indices and biophysical parameters) using univariate and multivariate classification approaches. Best results were achieved with red cultivars (both using univariate and multivariate approaches). For white cultivars, results were not satisfactory either for the univariate or the multivariate. Nevertheless, external accuracy assessment show that despite problems of Flavescence dorée and healthy pixel misclassification, an operational Flavescence dorée mapping technique using UAV-based imagery can still be proposed.

Plant diversity is an important driver of diversity at other trophic levels, suggesting that cascading extinctions could reduce overall biodiversity. Most evidence for positive effects of plant diversity comes from grasslands. Despite the fact that forests are hotspots of biodiversity, the importance of tree diversity, in particular its relative importance compared to other management related factors, in affecting forest‐associated taxa is not well known. To address this, we used data from 183 plots, located in different forest types, from Mediterranean to Boreal, and established along a climatic gradient across six European countries (FunDivEUROPE project). We tested the influence of tree diversity, tree functional composition (i.e. functional trait values), forest structure, climate and soil on the diversity and abundance/activity of nine taxa (bats, birds, spiders, microorganisms, earthworms, ungulates, foliar fungal pathogens, defoliating insects and understorey plants) and on their overall diversity and abundance/activity (multidiversity, multiabundance/activity). Tree diversity was a key driver of taxon‐level and overall forest‐associated biodiversity, along with tree functional composition, forest structure, climate and soil. Both tree species richness and functional diversity (variation in functional trait values) were important. The effects of tree diversity on the abundance/activity of forest‐associated taxa were less consistent. Nonetheless, spiders, ungulates and foliar fungal pathogens were all more abundant/active in diverse forests. Tree functional composition and structure were also important drivers of abundance/activity: conifer stands had lower overall multidiversity (although the effect was driven by defoliating insects), while stands with potentially tall trees had lower overall multiabundance/activity. We found more synergies than tradeoffs between diversity and abundance/activity of different taxa, suggesting that forest management can promote high diversity across taxa. Our results clearly show the high value of mixed forest stands for multiple forest‐associated taxa and indicate that multiple dimensions of tree diversity (taxonomic and functional) are important.

Barnaud, C., E. Corbera, R. Muradian, N. Salliou, C. Sirami, A. Vialatte, J.-P. Choisis, N. Dendoncker, R. Mathevet, C. Moreau, V. Reyes-García, M. Boada, M. Deconchat, C. Cibien, S. Garnier, R. Maneja, and M. Antona. 2018. Ecosystem services, social interdependencies, and collective action: a conceptual framework. Ecology and Society 23(1):15. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09848-230115

Barnaud, C., and A. Van Paassen. 2013. Equity, power games, and legitimacy: dilemmas of participatory natural resource management. Ecology and Society 18(2): 21. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05459-180221

Global warming and land‐use change are expected to be additive threats to global diversity, to which insects contribute the highest proportion. Insects are strongly influenced by temperature but also require specific habitat resources, and thus interaction between the two factors is likely. We selected saproxylic beetles as a model group because their life cycle depends on dead wood, which is highly threatened by land use. We tested the extent to which higher temperatures compensate for the negative effects of low amounts of dead wood on saproxylic beetle species richness (Temperature–Dead wood compensation hypothesis) on both a macroclimate and a topoclimate scale (north‐ and south‐facing slopes). We analyzed 1404 flight‐interception trap catches across Europe to test for interaction effects of temperature and dead‐wood amount on species richness. To experimentally test our findings from the activity trap data, we additionally reared beetles from 80 bundles of dead wood initially exposed at high and low elevations. At the topoclimate scale, we analyzed trap catches and reared beetles from dead wood exposed in 20 forest stands on south‐facing and north‐facing slopes in one region. On the macroscale, both temperature and dead‐wood amount positively affected total and threatened species richness independently, but their interaction was significantly negative, indicating compensation. On both scales and irrespective of the method, species richness decreased with temperature decline. Our observation that increasing temperature compensates for lower amounts of dead wood has two important implications. First, managers of production forests should adapt their dead‐wood enrichment strategy to site‐specific temperature conditions. Second, an increase in temperature will compensate at least partially for poor habitat conditions in production forests. Such a perspective contrasts the general assumption of reinforcing impacts of global warming and habitat loss on biodiversity, but it is corroborated by recent range expansions of threatened beetle species.

Forest pest damage is expected to increase with global change. Tree diversity could mitigate this impact, but unambiguous demonstration of the diversity-resistance relationship is lacking in semi-natural mature forests. We used a network of 208 forest plots sampled along two orthogonal gradients of increasing tree species richness and latitudes to assess total tree defoliation in Europe. We found a positive relationship between tree species richness and resistance to insect herbivores: overall damage to broadleaved species significantly decreased with the number of tree species in mature forests. This pattern of associational resistance was frequently observed across tree species and countries, irrespective of their climate. These findings confirm the greater potential of mixed forests to face future biotic disturbances in a changing world.

Among grapevine diseases affecting European vineyards, Flavescence dorée (FD) and Grapevine Trunk Diseases (GTD) are considered the most relevant challenges for viticulture because of the damage they cause to vineyards. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) multispectral imagery could be a powerful tool for the automatic detection of symptomatic vines. However, one major difficulty is to discriminate different kinds of diseases leading to similar leaves discoloration as it is the case with FD and GTD for red vine cultivars. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the potentiality of UAV multispectral imagery to separate: symptomatic vines including FD and GTD (Esca and black dead arm) from asymptomatic vines (Case 1) and FD vines from GTD ones (Case 2). The study sites are localized in the Gaillac and Minervois wine production regions (south of France). A set of seven vineyards covering five different red cultivars was studied. Field work was carried out between August and September 2016. In total, 218 asymptomatic vines, 502 FD vines and 199 GTD vines were located with a centimetric precision GPS. UAV multispectral images were acquired with a MicaSense RedEdge® sensor and were processed to ultimately obtain surface reflectance mosaics at 0.10 m ground spatial resolution. In this study, the potentiality of 24 variables (5 spectral bands, 15 vegetation indices and 4 biophysical parameters) are tested. The vegetation indices are selected for their potentiality to detect abnormal vegetation behavior in relation to stress or diseases. Among the biophysical parameters selected, three are directly linked to the leaf pigments content (chlorophyll, carotenoid and anthocyanin). The first step consisted in evaluating the performance of the 24 variables to separate symptomatic vine vegetation (FD or/and GTD) from asymptomatic vine vegetation using the performance indicators from the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) Curve method (i.e., Area Under Curve or AUC, sensibility and specificity). The second step consisted in mapping the symptomatic vines (FD and/or GTD) at the scale of the field using the optimal threshold resulting from the ROC curve. Ultimately, the error between the level of infection predicted by the selected variables (proportion of symptomatic pixels by vine) and observed in the field (proportion of symptomatic leaves by vine) is calculated. The same methodology is applied to the three levels of analysis: by vineyard, by cultivar (Gamay, Fer Servadou) and by berry color (all red cultivars). At the vineyard and cultivar levels, the best variables selected varies. The AUC of the best vegetation indices and biophysical parameters varies from 0.84 to 0.95 for Case 1 and 0.74 to 0.90 for Case 2. At the berry color level, no variable is efficient in discriminating FD vines from GTD ones (Case 2). For Case 1, the best vegetation indices and biophysical parameter are Red Green Index (RGI)/ Green-Red Vegetation Index (GRVI) (based on the green and red spectral bands) and Car (linked to carotenoid content). These variables are more effective in mapping vines with a level of infection greater than 50%. However, at the scale of the field, we observe misclassified pixels linked to the presence of mixed pixels (shade, bare soil, inter-row vegetation and vine vegetation) and other factors of abnormal coloration (e.g., apoplectic vines).

Abstract Aim The role of bird–insect interactions in shaping bird distribution patterns at the landscape scale has been seldom investigated. In mosaic landscapes, bird functional diversity is considered to be an important driver of avian insectivory, but depends on forest fragmentation and edge effects from adjacent, non‐forest habitats. In a transcontinental experiment, we investigated edge and landscape effects on bird functional diversity and insectivory in mosaic landscapes of mixed forests and open habitats. Location New Zealand and France. Methods We paired edge and interior plots in native forest fragments in N ew Z ealand and native plantation forests in F rance. We sampled bird communities using point‐counts and linear transects respectively and simultaneously quantified avian insectivory as the rate of bird attacks on plasticine models mimicking tree‐feeding Lepidoptera larvae. The same seven life traits and attributes were compiled for F rench and N ew Z ealand birds, including biogeographic origin, body mass, mobility, foraging method, adult diet, nest location and clutch size. Bird functional diversity was quantified on this multitrait basis by four indices: functional richness, evenness, divergence and dispersion. We used mixed models to test for the effects of forest edges, study area, surrounding landscape diversity and native forest cover on bird functional diversity and insectivory. Results We found higher bird functional richness at forest edges than interiors in N ew Z ealand and lower functional richness at edges in F rance. However, bird functional evenness and divergence were significantly higher at forest edges in the two countries. Functional evenness and dispersion both increased with landscape diversity and evenness increased with native forest cover. Moreover, bird insectivory increased at forest edges with functional evenness, irrespective of the study area. Main conclusions We suggest that intermediate levels of forest fragmentation and edge effects increase avian insectivory in mosaic landscapes, through enhanced functional evenness and trait complementation within predatory bird assemblages.

Innovations supporting a shift towards more sustainable food systems can be developed within the dominant food system regime or in alternative niches. No study has compared the challenges faced in each context. This paper, based on an analysis of 25 cases of European innovations that support crop diversification, explores the extent to which barriers to crop diversification can be related to the proximity of innovation settings with dominant food systems. Drawing on a qualitative analysis of interviews and participatory brainstorming, we highlight 46 different barriers to crop diversification across the cases, at different levels: production; downstream operations from farm to retailing, marketing and consumers; and contracts and coordination between actors. To characterise the diversity of innovation strategies at food system level, we introduce the concept of "food system innovation settings" combining: (i) the type of innovative practice promoted at farm level; (ii) the type of value chain supporting that innovation; and (iii) the type of agriculture involved (organic or conventional). Through a multiple correspondence analysis, we show different patterns of barriers to crop diversification according to three ideal-types of food system innovation settings: (i) "Changing from within", where longer rotations are fostered on conventional farms involved in commodity supply chains; (ii) "Building outside", where crop diversification integrates intercropping on organic farms involved in local supply chains; and (iii) "Playing horizontal", where actors promote alternative crop diversification strategies-either strictly speaking horizontal at spatial level (e.g. strip cropping) or socially horizontal (arrangement between farmers)-without directly challenging the vertical organisation of dominant value chains. We recommend designing targeted research and policy actions according to the food systems they seek to develop. We then discuss further development of our approach to analyse barriers faced in intermediate and hybrid food system configurations.

In Europe, the 2003 summer heat wave damaged forested areas. This study aims to compare two approaches of NDVI time series analysis to monitor forest decline. Both methods analyze the trend of vegetation activity from 2000 to 2011. The first method is based on a phenometric related to spring vegetation activity, calculated for each year during the 2000–2011 period. In the second method (BFAST), the trend comes from the decomposition of the NDVI time series into three additive components: trend, seasonal and remainder. The two approaches gave similar results for estimated trends. The main advantage of BFAST is its ability to detect breakpoints in the linear trend. It allowed to highlight here the impact of exceptional events, like 2003 summer drought, on the development of forest stands. In the last part of our study, we implemented a validation based on in situ observations. Health status of silver fir stands was estimated analyzing the trees architecture. Significant relationships were highlighted between the indicator of spring vitality derived from remote sensing images and the observed status of forest stands.

In Europe, forest management has controlled forest dynamics to sustain commodity production over multiple centuries. Yet over-regulation for growth and yield diminishes resilience to environmental stress as well as threatens biodiversity, leading to increasing forest susceptibility to an array of disturbances. These trends have stimulated interest in alternative management systems, including natural dynamics silviculture (NDS). NDS aims to emulate natural disturbance dynamics at stand and landscape scales through silvicultural manipulations of forest structure and landscape patterns. We adapted a "Comparability Index" (CI) to assess convergence/divergence between natural disturbances and forest management effects. We extended the original CI concept based on disturbance size and frequency by adding the residual structure of canopy trees after a disturbance as a third dimension. We populated the model by compiling data on natural disturbance dynamics and management from 13 countries in Europe, covering four major forest types (i.e., spruce, beech, oak, and pine-dominated forests). We found that natural disturbances are highly variable in size, frequency, and residual structure, but European forest management fails to encompass this complexity. Silviculture in Europe is skewed toward even-aged systems, used predominately (72.9% of management) across the countries assessed. The residual structure proved crucial in the comparison of natural disturbances and silvicultural systems. CI indicated the highest congruence between uneven-aged silvicultural systems and key natural disturbance attributes. Even so, uneven-aged practices emulated only a portion of the complexity associated with natural disturbance effects. The remaining silvicultural systems perform poorly in terms of retention compared to tree survivorship after natural disturbances. We suggest that NDS can enrich Europe's portfolio of management systems, for example where wood production is not the primary objective. NDS is especially relevant to forests managed for habitat quality, risk reduction, and a variety of ecosystem services. We suggest a holistic approach integrating NDS with more conventional practices.

Trade-offs are manifestations of the complex dynamics in interdependent social-ecological systems. Addressing tradeoffs involves challenges of perception due to the dynamics of interdependence. We outline the challenges associated with addressing trade-offs and analyze knowledge coproduction as a practice that may contribute to tackling trade-offs in social-ecological systems. We discuss this through a case study in coastal Kenya in which an iterative knowledge coproduction process was facilitated to reveal social-ecological trade-offs in the face of ecological and socioeconomic change. Representatives of communities, government, and NGOs attended two integrative workshops in which methods derived from systems thinking, dialogue, participatory modeling, and scenarios were applied to encourage participants to engage and evaluate trade-offs. Based on process observation and interviews with participants and scientists, our analysis suggests that this process lead to increased appreciation of interdependences and the way in which trade-offs emerge from complex dynamics of interdependent factors. The process seemed to provoke a reflection of knowledge assumptions and narratives, and management goals for the social-ecological system. We also discuss how stakeholders link these insights to their practices.

Mapping forest composition is a major concern for forest management, biodiversity assessment and for understanding the potential impacts of climate change on tree species distribution. In this study, the suitability of a dense high spatial resolution multispectral Formosat-2 satellite image time-series (SITS) to discriminate tree species in temperate forests is investigated. Based on a 17-date SITS acquired across one year, thirteen major tree species (8 broadleaves and 5 conifers) are classified in a study area of southwest France. The performance of parametric (GMM) and nonparametric (k-NN, RF, SVM) methods are compared at three class hierarchy levels for different versions of the SITS: (i) a smoothed noise-free version based on the Whittaker smoother; (ii) a non-smoothed cloudy version including all the dates; (iii) a non-smoothed noise-free version including only 14 dates. Noise refers to pixels contaminated by clouds and cloud shadows. The results of the 108 distinct classifications show a very high suitability of the SITS to identify the forest tree species based on phenological differences (average κ = 0 . 93 estimated by cross-validation based on 1235 field-collected plots). SVM is found to be the best classifier with very close results from the other classifiers. No clear benefit of removing noise by smoothing can be observed. Classification accuracy is even improved using the non-smoothed cloudy version of the SITS compared to the 14 cloud-free image time series. However conclusions of the results need to be considered with caution because of possible overfitting. Disagreements also appear between the maps produced by the classifiers for complex mixed forests, suggesting a higher classification uncertainty in these contexts. Our findings suggest that time-series data can be a good alternative to hyperspectral data for mapping forest types. It also demonstrates the potential contribution of the recently launched Sentinel-2 satellite for studying forest ecosystems.

Abstract Global forest loss and fragmentation have strongly increased the frequency of forest patches smaller than a few hectares. Little is known about the biodiversity and ecosystem service supply potential of such small woodlands in comparison to larger forests. As it is widely recognized that high biodiversity levels increase ecosystem functionality and the delivery of multiple ecosystem services, small, isolated woodlands are expected to have a lower potential for ecosystem service delivery than large forests hosting more species. We collected data on the diversity of six taxonomic groups covering invertebrates, plants and fungi, and on the supply potential of five ecosystem services and one disservice within 224 woodlands distributed across temperate Europe. We related their ability to simultaneously provide multiple ecosystem services (multiservice delivery potential) at different performance levels to biodiversity of all studied taxonomic groups (multidiversity), forest patch size and age, as well as habitat availability and connectivity within the landscape, while accounting for macroclimate, soil properties and forest structure. Unexpectedly, despite their lower multidiversity, smaller woodlands had the potential to deliver multiple services at higher performance levels per area than larger woodlands of similar age, probably due to positive edge effects on the supply potential of several ecosystem services. Biodiversity only affected multiservice delivery potential at a low performance level as well as some individual ecosystem services. The importance of other drivers of ecosystem service supply potential by small woodlands in agricultural landscapes also depended on the level of performance and varied with the individual ecosystem service considered. Synthesis and applications . Large, ancient woodlands host high levels of biodiversity and can therefore deliver a number of ecosystem services. In contrast, smaller woodlands in agricultural landscapes, especially ancient woodlands, have a higher potential to deliver multiple ecosystem services on a per area basis. Despite their important contribution to agricultural landscape multifunctionality, small woodlands are not currently considered by public policies. There is thus an urgent need for targeted policy instruments to ensure their adequate management and future conservation in order to either achieve multiservice delivery at high levels or to maximize the delivery of specific ecosystem services.

Regards méthodologiques sur l’échantillonnage des coléoptères saproxyliques au moyen des pièges-vitres. — Les coléoptères saproxyliques constituent un groupe riche en espèces, souvent petites et cryptiques, et difficiles à échantillonner. Différentes méthodes sont traditionnellement utilisées pour les collecter : les techniques (i) de collecte active, (ii) d’élevage et (iii) de piégeage. Le piège-vitre est actuellement la méthode la plus fréquemment utilisée pour la capture des coléoptères saproxyliques aériens mobiles. Grâce à la combinaison de différents principes, les pièges-vitres comportent de multiples modèles. Cette étude concerne l’influence de 3 facteurs sur les captures de coléoptères saproxyliques, en comparant (i) des pièges plans bidirectionnels ou multidirectionnels en croix (effet de forme), (ii) des pièges transparents ou noirs (effet silhouette), (iii) des pièges suspendus à faible hauteur ou dans la canopée. Six jeux de données écologiques de plaine ou d’altitude, de forêts françaises feuillues ou résineuses, et comportant deux pièges différents appariés par placette, ont été compilés et analysés pour comparer l’efficacité respective des méthodes. La forme du piège a un fort effet significatif sur l’abondance et la richesse spécifique, à l’avantage des pièges plans. Néanmoins, en raison de contraintes pratiques ou fi nancières, les pièges-croix sont recommandés. Les pièges noirs ou transparents fournissent des échantillons comparables en termes d’abondance, de richesse et de composition. Nos résultats confirment la différenciation verticale des assemblages de coléoptères saproxyliques, les pièges bas capturant davantage d’individus et d’espèces que les pièges de la canopée. A l’exception des Melyridae, aucune espèce n’est associée aux strates hautes. Des analyses complémentaires fondées sur de plus amples jeux de données sont requises pour optimiser les méthodes d’échantillonnage.

Temporal variation in the composition of species assemblages could be the result of deterministic processes driven by environmental change and/or stochastic processes of colonization and local extinction. Here, we analyzed the relative roles of deterministic and stochastic processes on bird assemblages in an agricultural landscape of southwestern France. We first assessed the impact of land cover change that occurred between 1982 and 2007 on (i) the species composition (presence/absence) of bird assemblages and (ii) the spatial pattern of taxonomic beta diversity. We also compared the observed temporal change of bird assemblages with a null model accounting for the effect of stochastic dynamics on temporal beta diversity. Temporal assemblage dissimilarity was partitioned into two separate components, accounting for the replacement of species (i.e. turnover) and for the nested species losses (or gains) from one time to the other (i.e. nestedness-resultant dissimilarity), respectively. Neither the turnover nor the nestedness-resultant components of temporal variation were accurately explained by any of the measured variables accounting for land cover change (r(2)<0.06 in all cases). Additionally, the amount of spatial assemblage heterogeneity in the region did not significantly change between 1982 and 2007, and site-specific observed temporal dissimilarities were larger than null expectations in only 1% of sites for temporal turnover and 13% of sites for nestedness-resultant dissimilarity. Taken together, our results suggest that land cover change in this agricultural landscape had little impact on temporal beta diversity of bird assemblages. Although other unmeasured deterministic process could be driving the observed patterns, it is also possible that the observed changes in presence/absence species composition of local bird assemblages might be the consequence of stochastic processes in which species populations appeared and disappeared from specific localities in a random-like way. Our results might be case-specific, but if stochastic dynamics are generally dominant, the ability of correlative and mechanistic models to predict land cover change effects on species composition would be compromised.