Engility (United States)

Abstract. A community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) has been developed that allows for routine comparison of single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions or against observations. The priority of the effort so far has been to target specific scientific themes focusing on selected essential climate variables (ECVs), a range of known systematic biases common to ESMs, such as coupled tropical climate variability, monsoons, Southern Ocean processes, continental dry biases, and soil hydrology–climate interactions, as well as atmospheric CO2 budgets, tropospheric and stratospheric ozone, and tropospheric aerosols. The tool is being developed in such a way that additional analyses can easily be added. A set of standard namelists for each scientific topic reproduces specific sets of diagnostics or performance metrics that have demonstrated their importance in ESM evaluation in the peer-reviewed literature. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community effort open to both users and developers encouraging open exchange of diagnostic source code and evaluation results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) ensemble. This will facilitate and improve ESM evaluation beyond the state-of-the-art and aims at supporting such activities within CMIP and at individual modelling centres. Ultimately, we envisage running the ESMValTool alongside the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) as part of a more routine evaluation of CMIP model simulations while utilizing observations available in standard formats (obs4MIPs) or provided by the user.

Empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) methods seek to refine global climate model (GCM) outputs via processes that glean information from a combination of observations and GCM simulations. They aim to create value-added climate projections by reducing biases and adding finer spatial detail. Analysis techniques, such as cross-validation, allow assessments of how well ESD methods meet these goals during observational periods. However, the extent to which an ESD method’s skill might differ when applied to future climate projections cannot be assessed readily in the same manner. Here we present a “perfect model” experimental design that quantifies aspects of ESD method performance for both historical and late 21st century time periods. The experimental design tests a key stationarity assumption inherent to ESD methods – namely, that ESD performance when applied to future projections is similar to that during the observational training period. Case study results employing a single ESD method (an Asynchronous Regional Regression Model variant) and climate variable (daily maximum temperature) demonstrate that violations of the stationarity assumption can vary geographically, seasonally, and with the amount of projected climate change. For the ESD method tested, the greatest challenges in downscaling daily maximum temperature projections are revealed to occur along coasts, in summer, and under conditions of greater projected warming. We conclude with a discussion of the potential use and expansion of the perfect model experimental design, both to inform the development of improved ESD methods and to provide guidance on the use of ESD products in climate impacts analyses and decision-support applications.

The 2015 hurricane season in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean (EPO and CPO), particularly around Hawaii, was extremely active, including a record number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and the first instance of three simultaneous category-4 hurricanes in the EPO and CPO. A strong El Niño developed during the 2015 boreal summer season and was attributed by some to be the cause of the extreme number of TCs. However, according to a suite of targeted high-resolution model experiments, the extreme 2015 EPO and CPO hurricane season was not primarily induced by the 2015 El Niño tropical Pacific warming, but by warming in the subtropical Pacific Ocean. This warming is not typical of El Niño, but rather of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming. Although the likelihood of such an extreme year depends on the phase of natural variability, the coupled GCM projects an increase in the frequency of such extremely active TC years over the next few decades for EPO, CPO, and Hawaii as a result of enhanced subtropical Pacific warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing.

Abstract This study aims to assess whether, and the extent to which, an increase in atmospheric resolution of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5 (FLOR) with 50-km resolution and the High-Resolution FLOR (HiFLOR) with 25-km resolution improves the simulation of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–tropical cyclone (TC) connections in the western North Pacific (WNP). HiFLOR simulates better ENSO–TC connections in the WNP including TC track density, genesis, and landfall than FLOR in both long-term control experiments and sea surface temperature (SST)- and sea surface salinity (SSS)-restoring historical runs (1971–2012). Restoring experiments are performed with SSS and SST restored to observational estimates of climatological SSS and interannually varying monthly SST. In the control experiments of HiFLOR, an improved simulation of the Walker circulation arising from more realistic SST and precipitation is largely responsible for its better performance in simulating ENSO–TC connections in the WNP. In the SST-restoring experiments of HiFLOR, more realistic Walker circulation and steering flow during El Niño and La Niña are responsible for the improved simulation of ENSO–TC connections in the WNP. The improved simulation of ENSO–TC connections with HiFLOR arises from a better representation of SST and better responses of environmental large-scale circulation to SST anomalies associated with El Niño or La Niña. A better representation of ENSO–TC connections in HiFLOR can benefit the seasonal forecasting of TC genesis, track, and landfall; improve understanding of the interannual variation of TC activity; and provide better projection of TC activity under climate change.

Abstract. A climate model represents a multitude of processes on a variety of timescales and space scales: a canonical example of multi-physics multi-scale modeling. The underlying climate system is physically characterized by sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and natural stochastic variability, so very long integrations are needed to extract signals of climate change. Algorithms generally possess weak scaling and can be I/O and/or memory-bound. Such weak-scaling, I/O, and memory-bound multi-physics codes present particular challenges to computational performance. Traditional metrics of computational efficiency such as performance counters and scaling curves do not tell us enough about real sustained performance from climate models on different machines. They also do not provide a satisfactory basis for comparative information across models. codes present particular challenges to computational performance. We introduce a set of metrics that can be used for the study of computational performance of climate (and Earth system) models. These measures do not require specialized software or specific hardware counters, and should be accessible to anyone. They are independent of platform and underlying parallel programming models. We show how these metrics can be used to measure actually attained performance of Earth system models on different machines, and identify the most fruitful areas of research and development for performance engineering. codes present particular challenges to computational performance. We present results for these measures for a diverse suite of models from several modeling centers, and propose to use these measures as a basis for a CPMIP, a computational performance model intercomparison project (MIP).

In this work, we developed an interatomic potential for saturated hydrocarbons using the modified embedded-atom method (MEAM), a reactive semi-empirical many-body potential based on density functional theory and pair potentials. We parameterized the potential by fitting to a large experimental and first-principles (FP) database consisting of (1) bond distances, bond angles, and atomization energies at 0 K of a homologous series of alkanes and their select isomers from methane to n-octane, (2) the potential energy curves of H2, CH, and C2 diatomics, (3) the potential energy curves of hydrogen, methane, ethane, and propane dimers, i.e., (H2)2, (CH4)2, (C2H6)2, and (C3H8)2, respectively, and (4) pressure-volume-temperature (PVT) data of a dense high-pressure methane system with the density of 0.5534 g cc(-1). We compared the atomization energies and geometries of a range of linear alkanes, cycloalkanes, and free radicals calculated from the MEAM potential to those calculated by other commonly used reactive potentials for hydrocarbons, i.e., second-generation reactive empirical bond order (REBO) and reactive force field (ReaxFF). MEAM reproduced the experimental and/or FP data with accuracy comparable to or better than REBO or ReaxFF. The experimental PVT data for a relatively large series of methane, ethane, propane, and butane systems with different densities were predicted reasonably well by the MEAM potential. Although the MEAM formalism has been applied to atomic systems with predominantly metallic bonding in the past, the current work demonstrates the promising extension of the MEAM potential to covalently bonded molecular systems, specifically saturated hydrocarbons and saturated hydrocarbon-based polymers. The MEAM potential has already been parameterized for a large number of metallic unary, binary, ternary, carbide, nitride, and hydride systems, and extending it to saturated hydrocarbons provides a reliable and transferable potential for atomistic/molecular studies of complex material phenomena involving hydrocarbon-metal or polymer-metal interfaces, polymer-metal nanocomposites, fracture and failure in hydrocarbon-based polymers, etc. The latter is especially true since MEAM is a reactive potential that allows for dynamic bond formation and bond breaking during simulation. Our results show that MEAM predicts the energetics of two major chemical reactions for saturated hydrocarbons, i.e., breaking a C-C and a C-H bond, reasonably well. However, the current parameterization does not accurately reproduce the energetics and structures of unsaturated hydrocarbons and, therefore, should not be applied to such systems.

Packaging specific exogenous active proteins and DNAs together within a single viral-nanocontainer is challenging. The bacteriophage T4 capsid (100 × 70 nm) is well suited for this purpose, because it can hold a single long DNA or multiple short pieces of DNA up to 170 kb packed together with more than 1,000 protein molecules. Any linear DNA can be packaged in vitro into purified procapsids. The capsid-targeting sequence (CTS) directs virtually any protein into the procapsid. Procapsids are assembled with specific CTS-directed exogenous proteins that are encapsidated before the DNA. The capsid also can display on its surface high-affinity eukaryotic cell-binding peptides or proteins that are in fusion with small outer capsid and head outer capsid surface-decoration proteins that can be added in vivo or in vitro. In this study, we demonstrate that the site-specific recombinase cyclic recombination (Cre) targeted into the procapsid is enzymatically active within the procapsid and recircularizes linear plasmid DNA containing two terminal loxP recognition sites when packaged in vitro. mCherry expression driven by a cytomegalovirus promoter in the capsid containing Cre-circularized DNA is enhanced over linear DNA, as shown in recipient eukaryotic cells. The efficient and specific packaging into capsids and the unpackaging of both DNA and protein with release of the enzymatically altered protein-DNA complexes from the nanoparticles into cells have potential in numerous downstream drug and gene therapeutic applications.

Abstract This study investigates the roles of radiative forcing, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and atmospheric and land initial conditions in the summer warming episodes of the United States. The summer warming episodes are defined as the significantly above-normal (1983–2012) June–August 2-m temperature anomalies and are referred to as heat waves in this study. Two contrasting cases, the summers of 2006 and 2012, are explored in detail to illustrate the distinct roles of SSTs, direct radiative forcing, and atmospheric and land initial conditions in driving U.S. summer heat waves. For 2012, simulations with the GFDL atmospheric general circulation model reveal that SSTs play a critical role. Further sensitivity experiments reveal the contributions of uniform global SST warming, SSTs in individual ocean basins, and direct radiative forcing to the geographic distribution and magnitudes of warm temperature anomalies. In contrast, for 2006, the atmospheric and land initial conditions are the key drivers. The atmospheric (land) initial conditions play a major (minor) role in the central and northwestern (eastern) United States. Because of changes in radiative forcing, the probability of areal-averaged summer temperature anomalies over the United States exceeding the observed 2012 anomaly increases with time over the early twenty-first century. La Niña (El Niño) events tend to increase (reduce) the occurrence rate of heat waves. The temperatures over the central United States are mostly influenced by El Niño/La Niña, with the central tropical Pacific playing a more important role than the eastern tropical Pacific. Thus, atmospheric and land initial conditions, SSTs, and radiative forcing are all important drivers of and sources of predictability for U.S. summer heat waves.

A comprehensive gas puff capability is being developed on the Z pulsed power generator. We describe the methodology employed for developing a gas puff load on Z, which combines characterization and modeling of the neutral gas mass flow from a supersonic nozzle, numerical modeling of the implosion of this mass profile, and experimental evaluation of these magnetic implosions on Z. We are beginning a multiyear science program to study gas puff z-pinch physics at high current, starting with an 8-cm diameter double-shell nozzle, which delivers a column of Ar gas that is imploded by the machine's fast current pulse. The initial shots have been designed using numerical simulation with two radiation-magnetohydrodynamic codes. These calculations indicate that 1 mg/cm should provide optimal coupling to the driver and 1.6:1 middle:outer shell mass ratio will best balance the need for high implosion velocity against the need to mitigate the magnetic Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The models suggest 300-500-kJ Ar K-shell yield should be achievable on Z, and we report an initial commissioning shot at lower voltage in which 250 kJ was measured. Future experiments will pursue optimization of Ar and Kr K-shell X-ray sources, study fusion in deuterium gas puffs, and investigate the physics of gas puff implosions including energy coupling, instability growth, and radiation generation.

Abstract The System Definition Survey issued to INCOSE Fellows in December 2016 revealed at least five radically distinct worldviews on Systems within a relatively small, but moderately representative, part of the INCOSE community. We describe and analyse the survey results, and comment on differences between the responses from the Fellows and the responses to a similar survey issued to the System Science Working Group a month later. Then we discuss how the different worldviews on “system” revealed by the surveys map onto different areas of the set of system definitions described in a previous paper. We conclude that all the worldviews identified offer useful perspectives for systems engineering, and that Systems Engineers need the flexibility to adopt different worldviews for different situations, or at least to act “as if” different worldviews are true in different situations.

Abstract The impact of storm size on the forecast of tropical cyclone storm track and intensity is investigated using the 2016 version of the operational GFDL hurricane model. Evaluation was made for 1529 forecasts in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and western North Pacific basins, during the 2014 and 2015 seasons. The track and intensity errors were computed from forecasts in which the 34-kt (where 1 kt = 0.514 m s−1) wind radii obtained from the operational TC vitals that are used to initialize TCs in the GFDL model were replaced with wind radii estimates derived using an equally weighted average of six objective estimates. It was found that modifying the radius of 34-kt winds had a significant positive impact on the intensity forecasts in the 1–2 day lead times. For example, at 48 h, the intensity error was reduced 10%, 5%, and 4% in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and western North Pacific, respectively. The largest improvements in intensity forecasts were for those tropical cyclones undergoing rapid intensification, with a maximum error reduction in the 1–2 day forecast lead time of 14% and 17% in the eastern and western North Pacific, respectively. The large negative intensity biases in the eastern and western North Pacific were also reduced 25% and 75% in the 12–72-h forecast lead times. Although the overall impact on the average track error was neutral, forecasts of recurving storms were improved and tracks of nonrecurving storms degraded. Results also suggest that objective specification of storm size may impact intensity forecasts in other high-resolution numerical models, particularly for tropical cyclones entering a rapid intensification phase.

A loss of lubrication event within rotorcraft drivetrain components leads to the rapid failure of contacting gear and bearing surfaces, thermal runaway, and catastrophic damage with possible loss of life. This article demonstrates that the scuffing failure of the gear and bearing surfaces can be delayed by varying the properties of the contact materials and residual lubricant in high-speed contacts. A ball-on-disc tribometer is used to simulate loss of lubrication conditions in gears for a variety of material, surface finish, and lubricant combinations to compare relative time to scuffing initiation at high entrainment and sliding velocities (both 16 m/s). Comparisons of material and surface finishing generally show that contacts tend to survive longer without lubricant if the coefficient of friction is relatively low during initial run-in. However, a 9 cSt oil produced longer times to failure than the baseline 5 cSt oil with higher coefficients of friction throughout the experiment. Further measurements showed that silicon nitride and AISI 9310 steel in contact can survive much longer after the lubricant supply is shut off compared to a steel-on-steel contact. The 9 cSt oil, silicon nitride, and superfinished surfaces showed the greatest promise in loss of lubrication technology from these results, with increases of 28, 388, and 1,538%, respectively, over baseline results. Thus, material, surface finish, and novel lubricant selection strategies may allow tailoring of survivability characteristics of aircraft mechanical systems.

Over the period Decem-ber 2013–February 2014, there was a pronounced reduction of extratropical storm (ETS) activity over the North Pacific Ocean and the west coast of the United States of America (USA), and a substantial increase of ETS activity extending from central Canada down to the midwestern USA (Fig. 6.1a). The ETS activity was measured by the standard deviation of filtered 6-hourly sea level pressure in December–Febru-ary (DJF) using a 24-hour-difference filter (Wallace et al. 1988). A number of large-scale climate factors could have inf luenced the probability of this ex-treme year. Natural climate variations, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscilla-tion (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Os-cillation (NAO) significantly inf luence ETS activity over North America (e.g., Yang et al. 2015; Grise et al. 2013). Our assessment of these factors indicates that they were not major players in the 2013/14 case (not shown).

The Autonomous Operations Planner (AOP), developed by NASA, is a flexible and powerful prototype of a flight-deck automation system to support self-separation of aircraft. The AOP incorporates a variety of algorithms to detect and resolve conflicts between the trajectories of its own aircraft and traffic aircraft while meeting route constraints such as required times of arrival and avoiding airspace hazards such as convective weather and restricted airspace. This integrated suite of algorithms provides flight crew support for strategic and tactical conflict resolutions and conflict-free trajectory planning while en route. The AOP has supported an extensive set of experiments covering various conditions and variations on the self-separation concept, yielding insight into the system s design and resolving various challenges encountered in the exploration of the concept. The design of the AOP will enable it to continue to evolve and support experimentation as the self-separation concept is refined.

BACKGROUND: Attention to mental health issues is growing globally. In many countries, including Kenya, however, assessment of psychological distress, especially in rural areas, is limited. METHODS: We analyzed data from young women screened for a longitudinal contraceptive ring study in Kisumu, Kenya. Multivariable regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with recent moderate and high psychological distress, as measured by the Kessler (K-6) psychological distress scale. RESULTS: Among the 461 women screened, most (58.4%) were categorized as having moderate psychological distress, 20.8% were categorized as having low or no psychological distress, and 20.8% were categorized as having high psychological distress. Moderate psychological distress (vs low/no) was significantly more likely among women who reported a history of forced sex and were concerned about recent food insecurity. High (vs low/no) psychological distress was significantly more likely among women who reported a history of forced sex, who were concerned about recent food insecurity, and who self-reported a sexually transmitted infection. CONCLUSION: To reduce psychological distress, a focus on prevention as well as care methods is needed. Girls need a path toward a healthy and productive adulthood with a focus on education, which would help them gain skills to avoid forced sex. Women would benefit from easy access to social services and supports that would help them with basic needs like food security among other things. A holistic or ecological approach to services that would address mental, educational, social, health, and economic issues may have the highest chance of having a long-term positive impact on public health.

National adaptation planning has evolved from a focus on short-term, project-level interventions to mainstreaming adaptation into broader development goals. Initial adaptation efforts tended to focus on climate science and project-level assessments and measures. In contrast, National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) provide an opportunity to take a longer-term, more strategic approach to adaptation. A "development-first" approach, rather than a "climate-first" or climate stressor-driven approach, enables climate change to be more effectively integrated into development planning and decision-making. The United States Agency for International Development's (USAID's) Climate-Resilient Development framework, as applied to NAPs, begins with a workshop attended by a broad array of government and non-government stakeholders. During the workshop, participants take a comprehensive view of a country's social and economic development goals and key climate and non-climate risks to those goals. Participants also identify potential adaptations that can reduce the most significant climate risks to development. USAID has applied this approach in stakeholder workshops in Jamaica, West Africa, and Tanzania, and these workshops have helped to catalyse NAP processes in the countries. Lessons learned from these applications include the importance of stakeholder ownership and buy-in at an early stage of the NAP process, the value of embedding NAPs in an existing planning process such as long-term economic development planning to promote more effective mainstreaming, and the key role that NAPs can play in the coordination of financial and technical support by development agencies and other institutions.

Argon gas puffs have produced 330 kJ ± 9% of x-ray radiation above 3 keV photon energy in fast z-pinch implosions, with remarkably reproducible K-shell spectra and power pulses. This reproducibility in x-ray production is particularly significant in light of the variations in instability evolution observed between experiments. Soft x-ray power measurements and K-shell line ratios from a time-resolved spectrum at peak x-ray power suggest that plasma gradients in these high-mass pinches may limit the K-shell radiating mass, K-shell power, and K-shell yield from high-current gas puffs.

We present a system for determining a global solution for the relative poses between multiple sensors with different modalities and varying fields of view. The final calibration result produces a tree of transforms rooted at a single sensor that allows the fusion of the sensor streams into a shared coordinate frame. The method differs from other approaches by handling any number of sensors with only minimal constraints on their fields of view, producing a global solution that is better than any pairwise solution, and by simplifying the data collection process through automatic data association.

The difference between the ion thermal and effective temperatures is investigated through simulations of the Ne gas puff z-pinch reported by Kroupp et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 107, 105001 (2011)]. Calculations are performed using a 2D, radiation-magnetohydrodynamic code with Tabular Collisional-Radiative Equilibrium, namely Mach2-TCRE [Thornhill et al., Phys. Plasmas 8, 3480 (2001)]. The extensive data set of imaging and K-shell spectroscopy from the experiments provides a challenging validation test for z-pinch simulations. Synthetic visible images of the implosion phase match the observed large scale structure if the breakdown occurs at the density corresponding to the Paschen minimum. At the beginning of stagnation (−4 ns), computed plasma conditions change rapidly showing a rising electron density and a peak in the ion thermal temperature of ∼1.8 keV. This is larger than the ion thermal temperature (<400 eV) inferred from the experiment. By the time of peak K-shell power (0 ns), the calculated electron density is similar to the data and the electron and ion thermal temperatures are equilibrated, as is observed. Effective ion temperatures are obtained from calculated emission line widths accounting for thermal broadening and Doppler velocity shifts. The observed, large effective ion temperatures (∼4 keV) early in the stagnation of this Ne pinch can be explained solely as a combination of compressional ion heating and steep radial velocity gradients near the axis. Approximations in the modeling are discussed in regard to the higher ion thermal temperature and lower electron density early in the stagnation compared to the experimental results.

Recent experiments on the Z accelerator have produced high-energy (17 keV) inner-shell K-alpha emission from molybdenum wire array z-pinches. Extensive absolute power and spectroscopic diagnostics along with collisional-radiative modeling enable detailed investigation into the roles of thermal, hot electron, and fluorescence processes in the production of high-energy x-rays. We show that changing the dimensions of the arrays can impact the proportion of thermal and non-thermal K-shell x-rays.