Environmental Development Centre

Climate change is expected to influence the occurrence and magnitude of precipitation-related extremes and to increase drought and flood risk. Thus, future changes in dryness and wetness over global land areas are analysed using future climate simulations from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under RCP4.5 forcing scenario. Model reproducibility is evaluated first, and it is shown that high performance can be achieved in present-day climate simulations by models, particularly in multi-model ensemble (MME) results. For future climate simulations, the highest reliability regarding changes in precipitation and its related extremes is found over Northern high latitudes, while the lowest confidence levels are mainly localized over the tropics. The projections indicate a high likelihood that there will be a shift to fewer dryness but to more extreme precipitation events or/and flood events in future over Northern high latitudes. Among populated areas, Mediterranean basin is highlighted as displaying a relatively high reliability of increases in both dryness and wetness indicators, implying increased probabilities of both drought and flood events, despite the fact that there would be less precipitation. In North America and Asian monsoon areas, dryness indictors show no obvious changes, while markedly increases are found in wetness indicators, concurrent with a high model agreement. In contrast, southern Africa, Australia, and the Amazon basin show relatively high reliability regarding increases in dryness, but a low confidence level in wetness. The severity of these changes is not uniform across annual and seasonal scales and is region dependent. Two sources of uncertainty in projections are investigated in this study: internal and inter-model variability. The analysis indicates that internal and inter-model variability are the dominant sources of uncertainty in extreme climate projections, and inter-model variability is much larger and increases with time. Further analysis shows that both sources of uncertainty generally perform lower on annual and global scales than on seasonal and regional ones.

Abstract This paper discusses projections of heavy rainfall events in China during the 21st century based on daily precipitation data from the Fourth Assessment Report's (AR4) Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCM). Results show that all three experimental scenarios (scenarios A2, A1B, and B1) project consistent changes in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall at the end of 21st century. In the regions of Northeast China and North China, there are no significant changes in frequency but there are remarkable increases in intensity of heavy rainfall, indicating that enhanced intensity is the main contributor to increased ratios of heavy rainfall to total annual precipitation in these regions. In regions of the lower reaches of Yangtze River and South China, increases in the amount of heavy rainfall are closely associated with increased frequency and increased intensity. Projected frequencies of heavy rainfall at the end of 21st century increase by 30.9 ∼ 56.6% in the Yangtze River and 35.9 ∼ 50.2% in South China compared to the period of 1980–1999, and projected intensities increase by 1.0 ∼ 5.7% and 2.8 ∼ 6.3%, respectively. Additionally, the ratios of heavy rainfall to total annual precipitation increase by 2.3 ∼ 5.4% in the Yangtze River and 1.8 ∼ 3.8% in South China. The significant increases of heavy rainfall ratios indicate that as the climate warms, heavy rainfall events are expected to increase at rates that are much faster than increases in total precipitation amounts, indicating that China will experience increased amounts of flooding. These results are substantially consistent among the three IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios. The increased probability of heavy rainfall events in China is closely connected with increased transportation of water vapour from the Arabian Sea and the South China Sea. Additionally, atmosphere stratification has become increasingly unstable, which has provided a favorable background for the initiation of heavy rainfall at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Through a three-year revision involving various stakeholders, China has enacted a new Environmental Protection Law ( EPL ). The new law seeks to harmonize economic and social development with environmental protection and for the first time establishes clear requirements for the construction of an ecological civilization. It toughens the penalties for environmental offences with specific articles and provisions for raising public awareness. It also places greater responsibility on local government and law enforcement for the protection of China’s environment. However, many of the problems identified in the old EPL and especially the obstacles to its implementation have not been fully addressed and resolved. Effective environmental governance entails not only environmental laws but also implementation mechanisms, accountability regimes, and institutional arrangements. Raising the status of the EPL and of the general environmental protection apparatus is only the first step to meeting China’s environmental challenges. More efforts in the area of enforcement and implementation will lead China to a cleaner future.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the association between air pollution and vitamin D status in young children living in a sunny region. METHODS: This cross-sectional study of 100 children aged 4-10 years in Isfahan was conducted during 2011-2012. This industrial city has an arid climate and is the second most air-polluted city in Iran. Children were selected by random cluster sampling from various areas with different levels of air pollution. The air quality index (AQI) was recorded and demographic variables, dietary habits and levels of physical activity were determined by validated questionnaires. Serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D], calcium, phosphate, alkaline phosphatase and parathyroid hormone were measured. The P for trend for median (interquartile range) of variables was assessed across the AQI quartiles. The associations between AQI and biochemical values were assessed by multiple linear regression after adjustment for age, gender, BMI, diet and pattern of physical activity. RESULTS: Ninety-seven children (46.4% boys) completed the study. The median (interquartile range, IQR) of serum 25(OH) D was 37.4 (22.5, 81.6) nmol/L. Median dietary vitamin D intake was 11.7 μg/day, i.e. 78% of the required daily amount. Vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency were detected in 37.9% and 46.3% of children, respectively. Median (IQR) exposure to ultraviolet B radiation in the AQI Quartile 4 area was significantly lower than in the Quartile 1 area [0.36 (0.35-0.38) watts per square metre (W/m(2)) vs 0.41 (0.39-0.44) W/m(2), respectively, P = 0.04]. Likewise, the corresponding figure for serum 25(OH)D was 35.2 (22.5-45.2) vs 52.7 (44.9-81.6) nmol/L, respectively, P = 0.04. AQI was inversely associated with serum 25(OH)D, which remained significant after adjustment for the above-mentioned confounding factors (β = 0.61, P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: The independent inverse association of AQI with 25(OH)D explains the high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in children in Isfahan. Dietary intake of vitamin D was not sufficiently low to explain the very low level of serum 25(OH)D. In regions with plenty of sunlight, air pollution should be considered to be a factor in the causation of hypovitaminosis D.

In a seawater environment, the particle size of sediment and salinity play an important role in the adsorption behaviors of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) on sediment. In this study, batch adsorption experiments were carried out with the sediments from the Yellow River Delta (YRD) to explore the effect of particle size and salinity on the adsorption behaviors of phenanthrene (Phe), fluoranthene (Fla), and pyrene (Pyr). Adsorption isotherms of PAHs on different-sized sediments can be described by a Freundlich model with the correlation coefficients ranging from 0.96 to 0.99. The adsorption capacity of PAHs was in reverse proportion to the particle size of the sediments and in direct proportion to salinity. The sediments with smaller particle size possessed higher content of aromatic and fat components, which had strong adsorption capacity toward PAHs. Salinity influenced the adsorption behaviors of PAHs by changing the solubility of PAHs and the physicochemical properties of the sediments. The salting-out constants of Phe, Fla, and Pyr were in the range of 0.292 to 0.296, 0.230 to 0.289, and 0.293 to 0.307 l/mol, respectively. These research findings are of importance to an assessment of the fate and transport of PAHs in seawater-sediment systems.

Contamination of metals in household dust remains a concern for human health. However, few studies to date have been conducted on the contribution of both indoor and outdoor environments to the health risks posed by metals. This study was carried out to assess the potential health risks from both indoor and outdoor household dust and the respective contribution to the health risks for children. The results showed that household dusts were heavily polluted by metal(loid)s, which were up to 30 times higher than the relative background level, and were attributed to smelting activity. However, there are other pollution sources in indoor environments, since the I/O ratio values of Pb, Cd, and As were significantly higher than 1. HI values of Pb and As exceeded the threshold of (1) and accounted for approximately 60% and 24% to the HIt, respectively. The HIts of Zn, Cr, Mn, Hg, and Cu were mainly attributable to indoor dust exposure, particularly for Hg (73.44%), indicating non-carcinogenic health risks could be attributed more to the indoor dust exposure. This study highlights the potential risks of metal contamination in household environment, particularly indoor environment, on the health of children who live in the vicinity of smelting activity.

As the land ecosystem provides the necessary basic material resources for human development, land ecological security (LES) plays an increasingly important role in sustainable development. Given the degradation of land ecological security under rapid urbanization and the urgent LES requirements of urban populations, a comprehensive evaluation method, named Double Land Ecological Security (DLES), has been introduced with the city of Guangzhou, China, as a case study, which evaluates the LES in regional and unit scales for reasonable and specific urban planning. In the evaluation process with this method, we have combined the material security with the spiritual security that is inevitably associated with LES. Some new coefficients of land-security supply/demand distribution and technology contribution for LES evaluation have also been introduced for different spatial scales, including the regional and the unit scales. The results for Guangzhou indicated that, temporally, the LES supply indices were 0.77, 0.84 and 0.77 in 2000, 2006 and 2009 respectively, while LES demand indices for the city increased in 2000, 2006 and 2009 from 0.57 to 0.95, which made the LES level decreased slowly in this period. Spatially, at the regional scale, the urban land ecological security (ULES) level decreased from 0.2 (marginal security) to -0.18 (marginal insecurity) as a whole; in unit scale, areas in the north and in parts of the east were relatively secure and the security area was shrinking with time, but the central and southern areas turned to be marginal insecurity, especially in 2006 and 2009. This study proposes that DLES evaluation should be conducted for targeted and efficient urban planning and management, which can reflect the LES level of study area in general and in detail.

Leaf nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) stoichiometry might reflect the biogeochemical features of ecosystems, yet the potential range of stoichiometric flexibility under geochemically P-enriched soils (GPES) is still unclear. Leaf N and P of 126 plant species in 70 vegetation plots in GPES were investigated in central Yunnan, southwestern China, and leaf P fractions (i.e., inorganic vs. organic P) of the dominant species were examined. Our objectives were to improve the understanding of the role of soil N and P variability in controlling leaf N and P stoichiometry of plant communities in GPES. We found that plants in GPES had higher mean leaf P (4.07 mg/g) and lower N:P ratios (4.94) than average plant values that have been recorded in other parts of the world so far. Some fast-growing plants had extremely high leaf P (>10 mg/g). Community leaf N and P contents increased as soil N availability increased, but soil N variability was unrelated to community leaf N:P. Instead, community leaf P and N:P ratios were primarily determined by soil P; as soil P availability increased, leaf P increased and leaf N:P significantly decreased. Greater accumulation of inorganic P relative to organic P in leaf was the direct driving factor for community leaf P and N:P ratio patterns in GPES. Although soil P availability was the main controlling factor of leaf N:P patterns, community composition could be manipulated to restore the balance of N and P stoichiometry based on the different responses across species and plant types.

Designing a facile and low-cost methodology to fabricate earth-abundant catalysts is very much needed for a wide range of applications.

To achieve carbon neutrality , the development and application of low-carbon, zero-carbon, and negative-carbon technologies are crucial for transforming energy and industrial structures. Prospective Life Cycle Assessment (PLCA) serves as a vital tool in this transformation by providing a forward-looking framework for evaluating the future environmental impacts of emerging technologies. PLCA not only considers the scaling of technologies but also focuses on resource efficiency and energy system optimization. However, current PLCA frameworks often face challenges related to data limitations and inconsistencies in evaluation models, which can lead to uncertainties in environmental impact assessments . This paper proposes a robust and scientifically PLCA framework to reduce modeling uncertainties and support the carbon neutrality goal. Based on the summary of the current research and application of PLCA, focusing on its role in assessing low-carbon, zero-carbon, and negative-carbon technologies in key sectors such as industry, transportation, construction, and agriculture , the paper identifies critical issues that PLCA must address to support the future development of these technologies. Through this enhanced PLCA framework, the paper aims to offer methodological support for decision-making in technology selection and energy optimization, providing policymakers with a clear path to advance carbon-neutral strategies while ensuring environmental sustainability and economic efficiency.

Abstract Due to significant decreases in precipitation in northern China, knowledge of the response of seed germination and plant growth characteristics to key limiting factors is essential for vegetation restoration. We examined seed germination under different temperatures and water potentials, and we examined seedling growth under different amounts of water supply. Experiments were carried out in automatic temperature‐, humidity‐, and light‐controlled growth chambers. Under low water potentials, the final germination percentages of four herbaceous species were high, while seed germination of the shrub species Caragana microphylla was significantly inhibited. Under the different water supply amounts, seedlings of Agropyron cristatum allocated more biomass to the root and had a higher growth rate than those of Elymus dahuricus and C. microphylla . In light of these results and drier environmental conditions (annual mean precipitation is 366 mm, which falling mainly between June and August), potential selections for revegetation of different landscapes include the following: A. cristatum for shifting sand dunes, the establishment of the pioneer species Agriophyllum squarrosum , C. microphylla for semifixed sand dunes, E. dahuricus for fixed sand dunes, and Melilotus suaveolens and Medicago sativa for cultivation.

Abstract The economic and financial risks of global warming have become a hot issue of academic interest. This article analyzes global warming, financial risk, and the economic statistics of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2020 as a sample to assess the influence of the severity of global warming on financial risk. Global warming is found to affect financial risk and to have a substantial favorable influence on the amount of financial risk. Global warming also has significant effects on households, enterprises, financial institutions, and governments. There is heterogeneity in the effects of climate variation on financial risk. Global warming will cause a greater accumulation of financial risk in economically developed regions. Additionally, it will lead to financial risks by causing a decline in the incomes of residents, a decline in the profits of enterprises, growth in the number of loans that financial institutions consider to be nonperforming, and a widening of the gap between government revenue and expenditures. All of these effects will have an adverse domino effect on the economy. To reduce the financial risks caused by global warming, countermeasures are being offered to ensure social cohesion, conduct risk stress testing, create risk mitigation instruments, and encourage environmentally responsible development. This paper discusses policies and provides policymakers with recommendations on how to cope with the systematic financial risks induced by climate variation.

This study assesses spatial and temporal variation in environmental variables in relation to phytoplankton community size and composition in a typically eutrophic river reservoir (Hai River, northern China). The aim is to identify environmental parameters governing spatial and temporal differences in phytoplankton density and composition. Physicochemical parameters, including nutrient concentrations, were determined in monthly surface water samples from 2015. The average concentration of key eutrophication indexes (i.e., total phosphorous (TP: 0.24 ± 0.11 mg·L−1), total nitrogen (TN: 2.96 ± 1.60 mg·L−1), and Chlorophyll a (Chl a: 38.5 ± 11.5 mg·m−3)) substantially exceeded threshold values for eutrophic streams. Moreover, the eutrophication increased significantly downstream along the river reservoir as a consequence of an increasing fraction of agricultural and industrial land-use in the watershed. 103 phytoplankton species were identified, of which Chlorophyta was the dominated phylum (47 species), followed by Bacillariophyta (23 species) and Cyanophyta (18 species). No spatial difference in species distribution (ANOVA, p > 0.05) were found, while the temporal differences in species composition exhibited significant heterogeneity (ANOVA, p < 0.001). Phytoplankton abundance was highest in early summer (June and July), with maximum values increasing from 1.78 × 108 and 2.80 × 108 cells·L−1 in upstream and middle reaches, respectively, to 4.18 × 108 cells·L−1 furthest downstream. Cyanophyta, also known as Cyanobacteria and commonly referred to as blue-green algal, are known to constitute algae bloom in eutrophic systems. Common species are Microcystis marginata, Microcystis flos-aquae, and Oscillatoria sp. This was the dominant phyla during summer months, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the stream reservoir where it accounted for 88.9% of the phytoplankton community. Shannon weaver index (H’) and Pielous’s evenness index (J’) were extremely low (1.91–2.43 for H’ and 0.39–0.45 for J’) in samples collected from the lower part of the stream during the period of algal bloom, indicating an imbalance in the phytoplankton communities. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) indicated that water temperature (WT) and possible pH, along with nitrate (NO3-N) and nitrite (NO2-N), were the most important explanatory parameters in regard to phytoplankton composition. This research provides an understanding of the role of physicochemical water quality parameters in governing algal blooms and phytoplankton composition in river reservoirs.

The solubilization of tricalcium phosphate is often considered as the standard for screening of most phosphate-solubilizing microorganisms (PSMs). However, usually the effect of large-scale application of PSM on the promotion of crop growth varies. This study presents an efficient method for screening and testing phosphate-solubilizing fungus that enhance plant growth. A fungus Penicillium oxalicum I1 (P-I1) was isolated and identified that had high ability of phosphate-solubilization and could utilize maize root exudates as sources, and propagate well in vitro and in soil. P-I1 excreted oxalic acid and reached 593.9 μg/ml, and the pH value was decreased from 6.90 to 1.65 in 26 h. The amount of P-I1 increased by 48-fold in 28 d and was maintained for 49 d in soil. PSM showed selectivity on the transformation of the different forms of phosphorus, a wide range of insoluble phosphates, such as Ca₈H₂(PO₄)₆·5H₂O, AlPO₄, FePO₄, and Ca10(PO₄)₆(OH)₂, were converted to soluble CaHPO₄in soil, and CaHPO₄was also inhibited from being converted into insoluble phosphate by P-I1. The Ca₂-P content reached 27.11 μg/g soil on day 28 at 20°C, which increased by 110.32%, and plant growth promotion was tested and verified, the results showed that maize yield increased remarkably than control after inoculated P-I1, maize yield increased maximum by 14.47%. The data presented that P-I1 appear attractive for exploring their plant growth-promoting activity and potential field application.

Abstract Background Labeling of carbon foot-prints (CFPs) for products and services is regarded as a convenient and effective method for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Life cycle analysis (LCA) is a useful tool for examine CFP of relevant products and services. However, the corresponding standards for CFP of products and services can hardly be satisfactorily adopted. Also, most of the previous studies were based on an individual indicator, which can hardly reflect multiple dimensions of sustainable implications of products and services. Results Thus, in this research, a hybrid life cycle analysis (LCA) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method was proposed for helping evaluate CFP of products and services under multiple environmental indicators. The results indicated: (a) Air pollution caused by coal consumption was the primary environmental impact in China’s paper-production industry, and (b) in printing industry, air pollution caused by VOC was the primary environmental impact in China. At the same time, CFP of 1,000 kg copying paper was 1,415.39 kg CO 2 e based on LCI data of a paper factory in China. CFP of printing services was varied from each printing activity. Conclusions When purchasing copying paper, consumers should pay attention on coal consumption of the product. In printing industry, VOC of printing services should be taken serious consideration in China.

Abstract The genetic basis of complex traits and phenotypic differentiation remains unclear in pigs. Using nine genomes—seven of which were newly generated, high‐quality de novo assembled genomes—and 1081 resequencing genomes, we built a pan‐genome and identified 134.24 Mb nonredundant nonreference sequences, 1099 novel protein‐coding genes, 187,927 structural variations (SVs) and 30,143,962 single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Analysis of selective domestication revealed BRCA1 associated with enhanced adipocyte growth and fat deposition, and ABCA3 linked to an alleviated immune response and reduced lung injury. Integrating 162 transcriptomes and 162 methylomes of skeletal muscle across 27 developmental stages revealed the regulatory mechanism of phenotypic differentiation between Eastern and Western breeds. Artificial selection reshaped local DNA methylation status and imparted regulatory effects on the progression patterns of heterochronic genes such as GHSR and BDH1 , particularly during embryonic development. Altogether, our work provides valuable resources for understanding molecular mechanisms behind phenotypic variations and enhancing the genetic improvement programs in pigs.

During 1985 a survey of the physical growth of 175,290 Chinese children less than 7 years in age was undertaken in the urban and rural areas of ten provinces. The results of weight, height, and head circumference are similar to those generally found as regards the differences between boys and girls. The children in rural areas were lighter and shorter. From the age of 3-6 months onwards the weights and heights of all groups were less than international standards. Nutrition is probably the major factor in these differences in growth.

Abstract China's migration boom has reshaped its domestic economic pattern and social structure, resulting in a typical urbanization model dominated by massive internal migration. By using the 1% National Population Sample Survey data in 2005 and 2015, this study depicts and analyses the spatial pattern of intercity migration in China and its changes using the Gini index, network analysis approach, and gravity model. Individual‐level data enable us to reveal that the distribution of migrants among destinations and origins has become considerably balanced over the decade, although destinations are markedly more concentrated than origins. The migration network is stable but also becomes significantly disperse owing to the increasing short‐distance and intra‐provincial migration. Even with a burgeoning railway system, migration distance generally matters more than before, particularly for migration from Central and Western China. The results provide new insights to universal migration theories and implications to regional development and population redistribution.

As a vital aspect of individual’s quality of life, mental health has been included as an important component of the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals. This study focuses on a specific aspect of mental health: depression, and examines its relationship with commute patterns. Using survey data from 1,528 residents in Beijing, China, we find that every 10 additional minutes of commute time is associated with 1.1% higher probability of depression. We test for the mechanisms of the commute-depression link and find that commute is associated with depression as a direct stressor rather than triggering higher work stress. When decomposing commute time into mode-specific time, we found that time on mopeds/motorcycles has the strongest association with depression. Moreover, the commute-depression associations are stronger for older workers and blue-collar workers. Hence, policies that could reduce commute time, encourage work from home, improve job-housing balance or increase motorcyclists’ safety would help promote mental health.

Agricultural activities are the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, and carbon emissions from agricultural land use (CEALU) have become a hot issue across the world. Although there are some studies on the impact of high-standard farmland construction policies on carbon emissions, they focus on quantitative analysis and do not give sufficient consideration to the relationship between HSFC and CEALU. Therefore, in this study, by relying on provincial panel data of China for the period 2005–2017, the effect of the high-standard basic farmland construction policy on carbon emissions from agricultural land use per unit area and its regional differences were quantitatively analyzed using the difference-in-difference (DID) model. The results showed that: (1) China’s CEALU per unit area presented a fluctuating upward change, but the growth rate slowed down during the period 2005–2017, from 392.58 kg/ha to 457.72 kg/ha, with an average annual growth rate of 1.31%; (2) the high-standard farmland construction (HSFC) policy led a significant carbon emission reduction effect in agricultural land use and reduced the CEALU per unit area by 10.80% on average. With the promotion of this policy, its carbon emission reduction effect in agricultural land use presented an overall increasing change; (3) the carbon emission reduction effect of the high-standard farmland construction policy in agricultural land use was significant in central China, but non-significant in eastern China and western China.