Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux

Abstract This study presents the global climate model IPSL‐CM6A‐LR developed at Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace (IPSL) to study natural climate variability and climate response to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). This article describes the different model components, their coupling, and the simulated climate in comparison to previous model versions. We focus here on the representation of the physical climate along with the main characteristics of the global carbon cycle. The model's climatology, as assessed from a range of metrics (related in particular to radiation, temperature, precipitation, and wind), is strongly improved in comparison to previous model versions. Although they are reduced, a number of known biases and shortcomings (e.g., double Intertropical Convergence Zone [ITCZ], frequency of midlatitude wintertime blockings, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation [ENSO] dynamics) persist. The equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response have both increased from the previous climate model IPSL‐CM5A‐LR used in CMIP5. A large ensemble of more than 30 members for the historical period (1850–2018) and a smaller ensemble for a range of emissions scenarios (until 2100 and 2300) are also presented and discussed.

The complexity of flow and wide variety of depositional processes operating in subaqueous density flows, combined with post‐depositional consolidation and soft‐sediment deformation, often make it difficult to interpret the characteristics of the original flow from the sedimentary record. This has led to considerable confusion of nomenclature in the literature. This paper attempts to clarify this situation by presenting a simple classification of sedimentary density flows, based on physical flow properties and grain‐support mechanisms, and briefly discusses the likely characteristics of the deposited sediments. Cohesive flows are commonly referred to as debris flows and mud flows and defined on the basis of sediment characteristics. The boundary between cohesive and non‐cohesive density flows (frictional flows) is poorly constrained, but dimensionless numbers may be of use to define flow thresholds. Frictional flows include a continuous series from sediment slides to turbidity currents. Subdivision of these flows is made on the basis of the dominant particle‐support mechanisms, which include matrix strength (in cohesive flows), buoyancy, pore pressure, grain‐to‐grain interaction (causing dispersive pressure), Reynolds stresses (turbulence) and bed support (particles moved on the stationary bed). The dominant particle‐support mechanism depends upon flow conditions, particle concentration, grain‐size distribution and particle type. In hyperconcentrated density flows, very high sediment concentrations (>25 volume%) make particle interactions of major importance. The difference between hyperconcentrated density flows and cohesive flows is that the former are friction dominated. With decreasing sediment concentration, vertical particle sorting can result from differential settling, and flows in which this can occur are termed concentrated density flows. The boundary between hyperconcentrated and concentrated density flows is defined by a change in particle behaviour, such that denser or larger grains are no longer fully supported by grain interaction, thus allowing coarse‐grain tail (or dense‐grain tail) normal grading. The concentration at which this change occurs depends on particle size, sorting, composition and relative density, so that a single threshold concentration cannot be defined. Concentrated density flows may be highly erosive and subsequently deposit complete or incomplete Lowe and Bouma sequences. Conversely, hydroplaning at the base of debris flows, and possibly also in some hyperconcentrated flows, may reduce the fluid drag, thus allowing high flow velocities while preventing large‐scale erosion. Flows with concentrations <9% by volume are true turbidity flows ( sensu Bagnold, 1962 ), in which fluid turbulence is the main particle‐support mechanism. Turbidity flows and concentrated density flows can be subdivided on the basis of flow duration into instantaneous surges, longer duration surge‐like flows and quasi‐steady currents. Flow duration is shown to control the nature of the resulting deposits. Surge‐like turbidity currents tend to produce classical Bouma sequences, whose nature at any one site depends on factors such as flow size, sediment type and proximity to source. In contrast, quasi‐steady turbidity currents, generated by hyperpycnal river effluent, can deposit coarsening‐up units capped by fining‐up units (because of waxing and waning conditions respectively) and may also include thick units of uniform character (resulting from prolonged periods of near‐steady conditions). Any flow type may progressively change character along the transport path, with transformation primarily resulting from reductions in sediment concentration through progressive entrainment of surrounding fluid and/or sediment deposition. The rate of fluid entrainment, and consequently flow transformation, is dependent on factors including slope gradient, lateral confinement, bed roughness, flow thickness and water depth. Flows with high and low sediment concentrations may co‐exist in one transport event because of downflow transformations, flow stratification or shear layer development of the mixing interface with the overlying water (mixing cloud formation). Deposits of an individual flow event at one site may therefore form from a succession of different flow types, and this introduces considerable complexity into classifying the flow event or component flow types from the deposits.

<p>Aerosol radiative forcing plays an important role in the attribution of past climate changes, estimates of future allowable carbon emissions, and the assessment of potential geoengineering solutions. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modelling aerosol processes helped quantify aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large.</p><p>In spring 2018, under the auspices of the World Climate Research Programme's Grand Science Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity, thirty-six experts gathered to take a fresh and comprehensive look at present understanding of aerosol radiative forcing and identify prospects for progress on some of the most pressing open questions. The outcome of that meeting is a review paper, Bellouin et al. (2019), accepted for publication in Reviews of Geophysics. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable and arguable lines of evidence, including modelling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. A substantial achievement is to focus on lines of evidence rather than a survey of past results or expert judgement, and to make the open questions much more specific.</p><p>This talk will present the key messages and arguments of the review and identify work that show promise for improving the quantification of aerosol radiative forcing.</p>

Abstract. Fires have influenced atmospheric composition and climate since the rise of vascular plants, and satellite data have shown the overall global extent of fires. Our knowledge of historic fire emissions has progressively improved over the past decades due mostly to the development of new proxies and the improvement of fire models. Currently, there is a suite of proxies including sedimentary charcoal records, measurements of fire-emitted trace gases and black carbon stored in ice and firn, and visibility observations. These proxies provide opportunities to extrapolate emission estimates back in time based on satellite data starting in 1997, but each proxy has strengths and weaknesses regarding, for example, the spatial and temporal extents over which they are representative. We developed a new historic biomass burning emissions dataset starting in 1750 that merges the satellite record with several existing proxies and uses the average of six models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) protocol to estimate emissions when the available proxies had limited coverage. According to our approach, global biomass burning emissions were relatively constant, with 10-year averages varying between 1.8 and 2.3 Pg C yr−1. Carbon emissions increased only slightly over the full time period and peaked during the 1990s after which they decreased gradually. There is substantial uncertainty in these estimates, and patterns varied depending on choices regarding data representation, especially on regional scales. The observed pattern in fire carbon emissions is for a large part driven by African fires, which accounted for 58 % of global fire carbon emissions. African fire emissions declined since about 1950 due to conversion of savanna to cropland, and this decrease is partially compensated for by increasing emissions in deforestation zones of South America and Asia. These global fire emission estimates are mostly suited for global analyses and will be used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations.

Reconstructing the impact of Heinrich events outside the main belt of ice rafting is crucial to understanding the underlying causes of these abrupt climatic events. A high-resolution study of a marine sediment core from the Iberian margin demonstrates that this midlatitude area was strongly affected both by cooling and advection of low-salinity arctic water masses during the last three Heinrich events. These paleoclimatic time series reveal the internal complexity of each of the last three Heinrich events and illustrate the value of parallel studies of the organic and inorganic fractions of the sediments.

Assessment of the condition of ecosystems is a critical prerequisite for alleviating effects of the multiple anthropogenic stresses imposed on them. For stream ecosystems, a multitude of approaches has been proposed for this purpose. However, they all rest on the assessment of structural attributes, even though it is generally recognized that adequate characterization of ecosystems requires information on both structure (pattern) and function (process). Therefore, we propose a complementary approach to stream assessment based on evaluating ecosystem-level processes. Leaf litter breakdown is a prime candidate to consider in this context. This is because of the pivotal role that allochthonous litter plays in streams, the demonstrated effects of anthropogenic perturbations on litter breakdown, and the relative ease of implementation. Leaf breakdown is governed by a variety of internal and external factors that complicate the partitioning of effects due to anthropogenic stress and natural variability (background noise), thus potentially limiting the sensitivity and robustness of litter breakdown assays. However, internal regulation factors can be controlled by standardizing assessment procedures, while variability due to external factors can be accounted for by stream classification and/or a comparative approach (e.g., downstream–upstream comparisons). Composite parameters such as ratios of breakdown rates in fine-mesh and coarse-mesh bags may further increase the power of litter breakdown assays. Analyses may also be extended to include both leaf-associated decomposer assemblages (i.e., structural measures) and processes (i.e., additional functional measures). Significant efforts are required for developing standard assessment schemes as refined as extant procedures based on structural stream attributes (e.g., structure of macroinvertebrate assemblages). These efforts are nevertheless worthwhile in view of the new dimension that is added to current assessment procedures when functional elements are incorporated.

The emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) from the Petit Saut hydroelectric reservoir (Sinnamary River, French Guiana) to the atmosphere were quantified for 10 years since impounding in 1994. Diffusive emissions from the reservoir surface were computed from direct flux measurements in 1994, 1995, and 2003 and from surface concentrations monitoring. Bubbling emissions, which occur only at water depths lower than 10 m, were interpolated from funnel measurements in 1994, 1997, and 2003. Degassing at the outlet of the dam downstream of the turbines was calculated from the difference in gas concentrations upstream and downstream of the dam and the turbined discharge. Diffusive emissions from the Sinnamary tidal river and estuary were quantified from direct flux measurements in 2003 and concentrations monitoring. Total carbon emissions were 0.37 ± 0.01 Mt yr −1 C (CO 2 emissions, 0.30 ± 0.02; CH 4 emissions, 0.07 ± 0.01) the first 3 years after impounding (1994–1996) and then decreased to 0.12 ± 0.01 Mt yr −1 C (CO 2 , 0.10 ± 0.01; CH 4 , 0.016 ± 0.006) since 2000. On average over the 10 years, 61% of the CO 2 emissions occurred by diffusion from the reservoir surface, 31% from the estuary, 7% by degassing at the outlet of the dam, and a negligible fraction by bubbling. CH 4 diffusion and bubbling from the reservoir surface were predominant (40% and 44%, respectively) only the first year after impounding. Since 1995, degassing at an aerating weir downstream of the turbines has become the major pathway for CH 4 emissions, reaching 70% of the total CH 4 flux. In 2003, river carbon inputs were balanced by carbon outputs to the ocean and were about 3 times lower than the atmospheric flux, which suggests that 10 years after impounding, the flooded terrestrial carbon is still the predominant contributor to the gaseous emissions. In 10 years, about 22% of the 10 Mt C flooded was lost to the atmosphere. Our results confirm the significance of greenhouse gas emissions from tropical reservoir but stress the importance of: (1) considering all the gas pathways upstream and downstream of the dams and (2) taking into account the reservoir age when upscaling emissions rates at the global scale.

Behaviour represents a reaction to the environment as fish perceive it and is therefore a key element of fish welfare. This review summarises the main findings on how behavioural changes have been used to assess welfare in farmed fish, using both functional and feeling-based approaches. Changes in foraging behaviour, ventilatory activity, aggression, individual and group swimming behaviour, stereotypic and abnormal behaviour have been linked with acute and chronic stressors in aquaculture and can therefore be regarded as likely indicators of poor welfare. On the contrary, measurements of exploratory behaviour, feed anticipatory activity and reward-related operant behaviour are beginning to be considered as indicators of positive emotions and welfare in fish. Despite the lack of scientific agreement about the existence of sentience in fish, the possibility that they are capable of both positive and negative emotions may contribute to the development of new strategies (e.g. environmental enrichment) to promote good welfare. Numerous studies that use behavioural indicators of welfare show that behavioural changes can be interpreted as either good or poor welfare depending on the fish species. It is therefore essential to understand the species-specific biology before drawing any conclusions in relation to welfare. In addition, different individuals within the same species may exhibit divergent coping strategies towards stressors, and what is tolerated by some individuals may be detrimental to others. Therefore, the assessment of welfare in a few individuals may not represent the average welfare of a group and vice versa. This underlines the need to develop on-farm, operational behavioural welfare indicators that can be easily used to assess not only the individual welfare but also the welfare of the whole group (e.g. spatial distribution). With the ongoing development of video technology and image processing, the on-farm surveillance of behaviour may in the near future represent a low-cost, noninvasive tool to assess the welfare of farmed fish.

Rapid changes in ocean circulation and climate have been observed in marine-sediment and ice cores over the last glacial period and deglaciation, highlighting the non-linear character of the climate system and underlining the possibility of rapid climate shifts in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. To date, these rapid changes in climate and ocean circulation are still not fully explained. One obstacle hindering progress in our understanding of the interactions between past ocean circulation and climate changes is the difficulty of accurately dating marine cores. Here, we present a set of 92 marine sediment cores from the Atlantic Ocean for which we have established age-depth models that are consistent with the Greenland GICC05 ice core chronology, and computed the associated dating uncertainties, using a new deposition modeling technique. This is the first set of consistently dated marine sediment cores enabling paleoclimate scientists to evaluate leads/lags between circulation and climate changes over vast regions of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, this data set is of direct use in paleoclimate modeling studies.

In this work, we present for the first time undeniable evidence of nano-plastic occurrence due to solar light degradation of marine micro-plastics under controlled and environmentally representative conditions.

Microplastics (MPs) are present throughout aquatic ecosystems, and can be ingested by a wide variety of organisms. At present, the physical and chemical effects of environmental MPs on aquatic organisms are poorly documented. This study aims to examine the physiological and behavioral effects caused by fish consuming environmental microplastics at different life stages. MP samples were collected from beaches on three islands (Easter Island, Guam and Hawaii) located near the North and South gyres of the Pacific Ocean. Larvae and juveniles of Japanese Medaka were fed for 30days with three doses of MPs (0.01, 0.1 and 1% w/w in fish food) approximate to the concentrations measured in moderately and heavily contaminated ocean areas. Ingestion of MPs by medaka larvae caused (variously) death, decreased head/body ratios, increased EROD activity and DNA breaks and, alterations to swimming behavior. A diet of 0.1% MPs was the most toxic. Two-month-old juveniles fed with 0.01% MPs did not exhibit any symptoms except an increase in DNA breaks. Our results demonstrate ingestion and mainly sublethal effects of environmental MPs in early life stages of fish at realistic MP concentrations. The toxicity of microplastics varies from one sample to another, depending on polymer composition, weathering and pollutant content. This study examines the ecological consequences microplastic build-up in aquatic ecosystems, more particularly in coastal marine areas, which serve as breeding and growing grounds for a number of aquatic species.

Abstract High-resolution pollen analysis of Alborán Sea core MD95-2043 provides a 48-ka continuous vegetation record that can be directly correlated with sea surface and deep-water changes. The reliability of this record is supported by comparison with that of Padul (Sierra Nevada, Spain). Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 was characterised by fluctuations in Quercus forest cover in response to Dansgaard-Oeschger climate variability. MIS 2 was characterised by the dominance of semi-desert vegetation. Despite overall dry and cold conditions during MIS 2, Heinrich events (HEs) 2 and 1 were distinguished from the last glacial maximum by more intensely arid conditions. Taxon-specific vegetation responses to a tripartite climatic structure within the HEs are observed. In MIS 1, the Bölling-Allerød was marked by rapid afforestation, while a re-expansion of semi-desert environments occurred during the Younger Dryas. The maximum development of mixed Quercus forest occurred between 11.7 and 5.4 cal ka BP, with forest decline since 5.4 cal ka BP. On orbital timescales, a long-term expansion of semi-desert vegetation from MIS 3 into MIS 2 reflects global ice-volume trends, while Holocene arboreal decline reflects summer insolation decrease. The influence of precession on the amplitude of forest development and vegetation composition is also detected.

The ubiquitous occurrence of microplastics (MPs) in the marine environment is raising concern for interactions with marine organisms. These particles efficiently adsorb persistent organic pollutants from surrounding environment and, due to the small size, they are easily available for ingestion at all trophic levels. Once ingested, MPs can induce mechanical damage, sub- lethal effects and various cellular responses, further modulated by possible release of adsorbed chemicals or additives. In this study, ecotoxicological effects of MPs and their interactions with benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), chosen as a model compound for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were investigated in Mediterranean mussels, Mytilus galloprovincialis. Organisms were exposed for four weeks to 10 mg/L of low-density polyethylene (LD-PE) microparticles (2.34x107 particles/L, size range 20-25 µm), both virgin and pre-contaminated with BaP (15µg/g). Organisms were also exposed for comparison to BaP dosed alone at 150 ng/L, corresponding to the amount adsorbed on microplastics. Tissue localization of microplastics was histologically evaluated; chemical analyses and a wide battery of biomarkers covering molecular, biochemical and cellular levels allowed to evaluate BaP bioaccumulation, alterations of immune system, antioxidant defenses, onset of oxidative stress, peroxisomal proliferation, genotoxicity and neurotoxicity. Obtained data were elaborated within a quantitative weight of evidence (WOE) model which, using weighted criteria, provided synthetic hazard indices, for both chemical and cellular results, before their integration in a combined index. Microplastics were localized in haemolymph, gills and especially digestive tissues where a potential transfer of BaP from MPs was also observed. Significant alterations were measured on the immune system, while more limited effects occurred on the oxidative status, neurotoxicity and genotoxicity, with a different susceptibility of analyzed pathways, depending on tissue, time and typology of exposure. Molecular analyses confirmed the general lack of significant variations on transcriptional activity of antioxidant and stress genes. The overall results suggest that microplastics induce a slight cellular toxicity under short-term (28 days) exposure conditions. However, modulation of immune responses, along with bioaccumulation of BaP, pose the still unexplored risk that these particles, under conditions of more chronic exposure (months to years) or interacting with other stressors, may provoke long-term, subtle effects on organisms’ health status.

A robust understanding of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglacial history since the Last Glacial Maximum is important in order to constrain ice sheet and glacial-isostatic adjustment models, and to explore the forcing mechanisms responsible for ice sheet retreat. Such understanding can be derived from a broad range of geological and glaciological datasets and recent decades have seen an upsurge in such data gathering around the continent and Sub-Antarctic islands. Here, we report a new synthesis of those datasets, based on an accompanying series of reviews of the geological data, organised by sector. We present a series of timeslice maps for 20 ka, 15 ka, 10 ka and 5 ka, including grounding line position and ice sheet thickness changes, along with a clear assessment of levels of confidence. The reconstruction shows that the Antarctic Ice sheet did not everywhere reach the continental shelf edge at its maximum, that initial retreat was asynchronous, and that the spatial pattern of deglaciation was highly variable, particularly on the inner shelf. The deglacial reconstruction is consistent with a moderate overall excess ice volume and with a relatively small Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1a. We discuss key areas of uncertainty both around the continent and by time interval, and we highlight potential priorities for future work. The synthesis is intended to be a resource for the modelling and glacial geological community.

Nitrogen isotopes are an important tool for evaluating past biogeochemical cycling from the paleoceanographic record. However, bulk sedimentary nitrogen isotope ratios, which can be determined routinely and at minimal cost, may be altered during burial and early sedimentary diagenesis, particularly outside of continental margin settings. The causes and detailed mechanisms of isotopic alteration are still under investigation. Case studies of the Mediterranean and South China Seas underscore the complexities of investigating isotopic alteration. In an effort to evaluate the evidence for alteration of the sedimentary N isotopic signal and try to quantify the net effect, we have compiled and compared data demonstrating alteration from the published literature. A >100 point comparison of sediment trap and surface sedimentary nitrogen isotope values demonstrates that, at sites located off of the continental margins, an increase in sediment 15 N/ 14 N occurs during early burial, likely at the seafloor. The extent of isotopic alteration appears to be a function of water depth. Depth‐related differences in oxygen exposure time at the seafloor are likely the dominant control on the extent of N isotopic alteration. Moreover, the compiled data suggest that the degree of alteration is likely to be uniform through time at most sites so that bulk sedimentary isotope records likely provide a good means for evaluating relative changes in the global N cycle.

Abstract. Inland waters have been recognized as a significant source of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere at the global scale. Fluxes of CO2 between aquatic systems and the atmosphere are calculated from the gas transfer velocity and the water–air gradient of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2). Currently, direct measurements of water pCO2 remain scarce in freshwaters, and most published pCO2 data are calculated from temperature, pH and total alkalinity (TA). Here, we compare calculated (pH and TA) and measured (equilibrator and headspace) water pCO2 in a large array of temperate and tropical freshwaters. The 761 data points cover a wide range of values for TA (0 to 14 200 μmol L−1), pH (3.94 to 9.17), measured pCO2 (36 to 23 000 ppmv), and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) (29 to 3970 μmol L−1). Calculated pCO2 were >10% higher than measured pCO2 in 60% of the samples (with a median overestimation of calculated pCO2 compared to measured pCO2 of 2560 ppmv) and were >100% higher in the 25% most organic-rich and acidic samples (with a median overestimation of 9080 ppmv). We suggest these large overestimations of calculated pCO2 with respect to measured pCO2 are due to the combination of two cumulative effects: (1) a more significant contribution of organic acids anions to TA in waters with low carbonate alkalinity and high DOC concentrations; (2) a lower buffering capacity of the carbonate system at low pH, which increases the sensitivity of calculated pCO2 to TA in acidic and organic-rich waters. No empirical relationship could be derived from our data set in order to correct calculated pCO2 for this bias. Owing to the widespread distribution of acidic, organic-rich freshwaters, we conclude that regional and global estimates of CO2 outgassing from freshwaters based on pH and TA data only are most likely overestimated, although the magnitude of the overestimation needs further quantitative analysis. Direct measurements of pCO2 are recommended in inland waters in general, and in particular in acidic, poorly buffered freshwaters.

Abstract Studies of coastal vulnerability due to climate change tend to focus on the consequences of sea level rise, rather than the complex coastal responses resulting from changes to the extreme wave climate. Here we investigate the 2013/2014 winter wave conditions that severely impacted the Atlantic coast of Europe and demonstrate that this winter was the most energetic along most of the Atlantic coast of Europe since at least 1948. Along exposed open‐coast sites, extensive beach and dune erosion occurred due to offshore sediment transport. More sheltered sites experienced less erosion and one of the sites even experienced accretion due to beach rotation induced by alongshore sediment transport. Storm wave conditions such as were encountered during the 2013/2014 winter have the potential to dramatically change the equilibrium state (beach gradient, coastal alignment, and nearshore bar position) of beaches along the Atlantic coast of Europe.

Interactions among species determine local-scale diversity, but local interactions are thought to have minor effects at larger scales. However, quantitative comparisons of the importance of biotic interactions relative to other drivers are rarely made at larger scales. Using a data set spanning 78 sites and five continents, we assessed the relative importance of biotic interactions and climate in determining plant diversity in alpine ecosystems dominated by nurse-plant cushion species. Climate variables related with water balance showed the highest correlation with richness at the global scale. Strikingly, although the effect of cushion species on diversity was lower than that of climate, its contribution was still substantial. In particular, cushion species enhanced species richness more in systems with inherently impoverished local diversity. Nurse species appear to act as a 'safety net' sustaining diversity under harsh conditions, demonstrating that climate and species interactions should be integrated when predicting future biodiversity effects of climate change.

Rip currents are narrow and concentrated seaward-directed flows that extend from close to the shoreline, through the surf zone, and varying distances beyond. Rip currents are ubiquitous on wave-exposed coasts. Each year they cause hundreds of drowning deaths and tens of thousands of rescues on beaches worldwide and are therefore the leading deadly hazard to recreational beach users. The broad definition above masks considerable natural variability in terms of rip current occurrence in time and space, flow characteristics and behaviour. In particular, surf-zone rip currents have long been perceived as narrow flows extending well beyond the breakers, flushing out the surf zone at a high rate ('exit flow' circulation regime), while more recent studies have shown that rip flow patterns can consist of quasi-steady semi-enclosed vortices retaining most of the floating material within the surf zone ('circulatory flow' circulation regime). Building upon a growing body of rip current literature involving numerical modelling and theory together with emergence of dense Lagrangian field measurements, we develop a robust rip current type classification that provides a relevant framework to understand the primary morphological and hydrodynamic parameters controlling surf-zone rip current occurrence and dynamics. Three broad categories of rip current types are described based on the dominant controlling forcing mechanism. Each category is further divided into two types owing to different physical driving mechanisms for a total of six fundamentally different rip current types: hydrodynamically-controlled (1) shear instability rips and (2) flash rips, which are transient in both time and space and occur on alongshore-uniform beaches; bathymetrically-controlled (3) channel rips and (4) focused rips, which occur at relatively fixed locations and are driven by hydrodynamic processes forced by natural alongshore variability of the morphology in both the surf zone and inner shelf zone; and boundary-controlled (5) deflection rips and (6) shadow rips, which flow against rigid lateral boundaries such as natural headlands or anthropogenic structures. For each rip current type, flow response to changes in hydrodynamic and morphologic forcing magnitude is examined in regard to velocity modulation and changes in circulation regime, providing key force-response relationships of rip currents. We also demonstrate that in the real world, rip currents form through a mixture of driving mechanisms and the discrete rip types defined in fact form key elements in a wide and complex spectrum of rip currents on natural beaches. It is anticipated that this rip current type classification will serve as a resource for coastal scientists and non-specialists with an interest in the rip current hazard, and as a platform for future rip current studies. Finally, we suggest some important future research directions highlighting the need for coastal and beach safety communities to collaborate in order to improve rip current education and awareness.

Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.