European Union Satellite Centre

This paper proposes a novel technique to forecast day-ahead electricity prices based on the wavelet transform and ARIMA models. The historical and usually ill-behaved price series is decomposed using the wavelet transform in a set of better-behaved constitutive series. Then, the future values of these constitutive series are forecast using properly fitted ARIMA models. In turn, the ARIMA forecasts allow, through the inverse wavelet transform, reconstructing the future behavior of the price series and therefore to forecast prices. Results from the electricity market of mainland Spain in year 2002 are reported.

African Swine Fever (ASF) is an important contagious haemorrhagic viral disease affecting swine whose notification is mandatory due to its high mortality rates and the great sanitary and socioeconomic impact it has on international trade in animal and swine products. This disease only affects porcine species, both wild and domestic, and produces a variety of clinical signs such as fever and functional disorders of the digestive and respiratory systems. Lesions are mainly characterized by congestive-haemorrhagic alterations. ASF epidemiology varies significantly between countries, regions and continents, since it depends on the characteristics of the virus in circulation, the presence of wild hosts and reservoirs, environmental conditions and human social behaviour. Furthermore, a specific host will not necessarily always play the same active role in the spread and maintenance of ASF in a particular area. Currently, ASF is endemic in most sub-Saharan African countries where wild hosts and tick vectors (Ornithodoros) play an important role acting as biological reservoirs for the virus. In Europe, the disease has been endemic since 1978 on the island of Sardinia (Italy) and since 2007, when it was first reported in Georgia, in a number of Eastern European countries. It is also endemic in certain regions of the Russia Federation, where domestic pig and wild boar populations are widely affected. By contrast, in the affected eastern European Union (EU) countries where ASF is currently as epidemic, the on-going spread of the disease affects mainly wild boar populations located in restricted areas and, to a much less extent, domestic pigs. Unlike most livestock diseases, no vaccine or specific treatment is currently available for ASF. Therefore, disease control is mainly based on early detection and the application of strict sanitary and biosecurity measures. Epidemiology of ASF is very complex by the existence of different virus circulating, reservoirs and a number of scenarios, and the on-going spread of the disease through Africa and Europe. Survivor pigs can remain persistently infected for months which may contribute to virus transmission and thus the spread and maintenance of the disease, thereby complicating attempts to control it.

African swine fever (ASF) is an important emerging transboundary animal disease (TAD), which currently has an impact on many countries in Africa, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and the Russian Federation. The current situation in Europe shows the ability of the virus to rapidly spread, which stands to threaten the global swine industry. At present, there is no viable vaccine to minimize spread of the disease and stamping out is the main source of control. In February 2011, Ethiopia had reported its first suspected outbreaks of ASF. Genomic analyses of the collected ASF virus (ASFV) strains were undertaken using 23 tissue samples collected from domestic swine in Ethiopia from 2011 to 2014. The analysis of Ethiopian ASFVs partial p72 gene sequence showed the identification of a new genotype, genotype XXIII, that shares a common ancestor with genotypes IX and X, which comprise isolates circulating in Eastern African countries and the Republic of Congo. Analysis of the p54 gene also followed the p72 pattern and the deduced amino acid sequence of the central variable region (CVR) of the B602L gene showed novel tetramer repeats not previously characterized.

African swine fever (ASF) is a complex disease of swine, caused by a large DNA virus belonging to the family Asfarviridae. The disease shows variable clinical signs, with high case fatality rates, up to 100%, in the acute forms. ASF is currently present in Africa and Europe where it circulates in different scenarios causing a high socio-economic impact. In most affected regions, control has not been effective in part due to lack of a vaccine. The availability of an effective and safe ASFV vaccines would support and enforce control-eradication strategies. Therefore, work leading to the rational development of protective ASF vaccines is a high priority. Several factors have hindered vaccine development, including the complexity of the ASF virus particle and the large number of proteins encoded by its genome. Many of these virus proteins inhibit the host's immune system thus facilitating virus replication and persistence. We review previous work aimed at understanding ASFV-host interactions, including mechanisms of protective immunity, and approaches for vaccine development. These include live attenuated vaccines, and "subunit" vaccines, based on DNA, proteins, or virus vectors. In the shorter to medium term, live attenuated vaccines are the most promising and best positioned candidates. Gaps and future research directions are evaluated.

This study represents a complete comparative analysis of the most widely used African swine fever (ASF) diagnostic techniques in the European Union (EU) using field and experimental samples from animals infected with genotype II ASF virus (ASFV) isolates circulating in Europe. To detect ASFV, three different PCRs were evaluated in parallel using 785 field and experimental samples. The results showed almost perfect agreement between the Universal ProbeLibrary (UPL-PCR) and the real-time (κ = 0.94 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.91 to 0.97]) and conventional (κ = 0.88 [95% CI, 0.83 to 0.92]) World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE)-prescribed PCRs. The UPL-PCR had greater diagnostic sensitivity for detecting survivors and allows earlier detection of the disease. Compared to the commercial antigen enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), good-to-moderate agreement (κ = 0.67 [95% CI, 0.58 to 0.76]) was obtained, with a sensitivity of 77.2% in the commercial test. For ASF antibody detection, five serological methods were tested, including three commercial ELISAs, the OIE-ELISA, and the confirmatory immunoperoxidase test (IPT). Greater sensitivity was obtained with the IPT than with the ELISAs, since the IPT was able to detect ASF antibodies at an earlier point in the serological response, when few antibodies are present. The analysis of the exudate tissues from dead wild boars showed that IPT might be a useful serological tool for determining whether or not animals had been exposed to virus infection, regardless of whether antibodies were present. In conclusion, the UPL-PCR in combination with the IPT was the most trustworthy method for detecting ASF during the epidemic outbreaks affecting EU countries in 2014. The use of the most appropriate diagnostic tools is critical when implementing effective control programs.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to apply interpretive structural modelling in the clarification of the perceptions of different individuals in a managerial group in order to improve group decision making. To limit conflict and increase shared knowledge in group decision making, there is a need to explain differences among group members at the cognitive level. Design/methodology/approach Qualitative research has suggested methods that involve personal narratives and in‐depth interviews. The effectiveness of such methods can be enhanced using the techniques of formal logic. The approach used for the case is a simulation of a strategic group decision‐making process using interpretive structural modelling. The simulation contemplates a typical business scenario. It was done using role‐play in strategic corporate problem solving: four functional managerial roles and one general managerial role were assigned. Individual and group relationships were portrayed. Findings After analysing the results the authors found major differences in priority orderings of the different roles. As there are differences in the perception of the priority of the issues in the different managerial roles, it would be more difficult to take a decision. Research limitations/implications The limitations of this research are that it was done with assigned roles instead of real executives. Further research could provide ways of identifying schools of thought in decision‐making groups for strategic issues. Practical implications The practical application of this paper would be in the hypothetical decision‐making arena, improving the decision‐making process among executives working in different functional areas. Originality/value The application of formal logic methods to a decision‐making process is the prime contribution of this paper.

A non-haemadsorbing (non-HAD) ASF virus (ASFV) genotype II, namely Lv17/WB/Rie1, was isolated from a hunted wild boar in Latvia in 2017. Domestic pigs experimentally infected with the non-HAD ASFV developed a nonspecific or subclinical form of the disease. Two months later, these animals were fully protected when exposed to other domestic pigs infected with a related virulent HAD genotype II ASFV.

This paper considers a profit-maximizing thermal producer that participates in a sequence of spot markets, namely, day-ahead, automatic generation control (AGC), and balancing markets. The producer behaves as a price-taker in both the day-ahead market and the AGC market but as a potential price-maker in the volatile balancing market. The paper provides a stochastic programming methodology to determine the optimal bidding strategies for the day-ahead market. Uncertainty sources include prices for the day-ahead and AGC markets and balancing market linear price variations with the production of the thermal producer. Results from a realistic case study are reported and analyzed. Conclusions are duly drawn.

As one of the core elements of the European Human Biomonitoring Initiative (HBM4EU) a human biomonitoring (HBM) survey was conducted in 23 countries to generate EU-wide comparable HBM data. This survey has built on existing HBM capacity in Europe by aligning national or regional HBM studies, referred to as the HBM4EU Aligned Studies. The HBM4EU Aligned Studies included a total of 10,795 participants of three age groups: (i) 3,576 children aged 6-12 years, (ii) 3,117 teenagers aged 12-18 years and (iii) 4,102 young adults aged 20-39 years. The participants were recruited between 2014 and 2021 in 11-12 countries per age group, geographically distributed across Europe. Depending on the age group, internal exposure to phthalates and the substitute DINCH, halogenated and organophosphorus flame retardants, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), cadmium, bisphenols, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), arsenic species, acrylamide, mycotoxins (deoxynivalenol (total DON)), benzophenones and selected pesticides was assessed by measuring substance specific biomarkers subjected to stringent quality control programs for chemical analysis. For substance groups analyzed in different age groups higher average exposure levels were observed in the youngest age group, i.e., phthalates/DINCH in children versus teenagers, acrylamide and pesticides in children versus adults, benzophenones in teenagers versus adults. Many biomarkers in teenagers and adults varied significantly according to educational attainment, with higher exposure levels of bisphenols, phthalates, benzophenones, PAHs and acrylamide in participants (from households) with lower educational attainment, while teenagers from households with higher educational attainment have higher exposure levels for PFASs and arsenic. In children, a social gradient was only observed for the non-specific pyrethroid metabolite 3-PBA and di-isodecyl phthalate (DiDP), with higher levels in children from households with higher educational attainment. Geographical variations were seen for all exposure biomarkers. For 15 biomarkers, the available health-based HBM guidance values were exceeded with highest exceedance rates for toxicologically relevant arsenic in teenagers (40%), 3-PBA in children (36%), and between 11 and 14% for total DON, Σ (PFOA + PFNA + PFHxS + PFOS), bisphenol S and cadmium. The infrastructure and harmonized approach succeeded in obtaining comparable European wide internal exposure data for a prioritized set of 11 chemical groups. These data serve as a reference for comparison at the global level, provide a baseline to compare the efficacy of the European Commission's chemical strategy for sustainability and will give leverage to national policy makers for the implementation of targeted measures.

This paper addresses the optimal involvement in a futures electricity market of a power producer to hedge against the risk of pool price volatility. The considered trading horizon spans one whole year. Recognizing the highly uncertain nature of future pool prices, a stochastic programming framework with recourse is used to model this decision-making problem. The resulting problem is a large scale mixed-integer linear programming problem. Scenario reduction techniques are used to make this problem tractable. Risk is properly modeled using the CVaR methodology. Results from a realistic case study are provided and analyzed. Some conclusions are finally drawn.

African swine fever (ASF) has persisted in Eastern Europe since 2007, and two endemic zones have been identified in the central and southern parts of the Russian Federation. Moderate- to low-virulent ASF virus isolates are known to circulate in endemic ASF-affected regions. To improve our knowledge of virus transmission in animals recovered from ASF virus infection, an experimental in vivo study was carried out. Four domestic pigs were inoculated with the NH/P68 ASF virus, previously characterized to develop a chronic form of ASF. Two additional in-contact pigs were introduced at 72 days post-inoculation (dpi) in the same box for virus exposure. The inoculated pigs developed a mild form of the disease, and the virus was isolated from tissues in the inoculated pigs up to 99 dpi (pigs were euthanized at 36, 65, 99 and 134 dpi). In-contact pigs showed mild or no clinical signs, but did become seropositive, and a transient viraemia was detected at 28 days post-exposure (dpe), thereby confirming late virus transmission from the inoculated pigs. Virus transmission to in-contact pigs occurred at four weeks post-exposure, over three months after the primary infection. These results highlight the potential role of survivor pigs in disease maintenance and dissemination in areas where moderate- to low-virulent viruses may be circulating undetected. This study will help design better and more effective control programmes to fight against this disease.

African swine fever (ASF), the most significant threat to the pig industry worldwide, has spread to more than 55 countries on three continents, and it affects more than 77% of the world swine population. In the European Union, wild boar (Sus scrofa) is the most severely affected host. The main reasons for the unprecedented and constant spread of ASF in Europe are the trade activities, the continuous movement of infected-wild boar populations among regions and the lack of vaccine to prevent ASF infection. In this study, we demonstrate that oral immunization of wild boar with a non-hemadsorbing, attenuated ASF virus of genotype II isolated in Latvia in 2017 (Lv17/WB/Rie1) conferred 92% protection against challenge with a virulent ASF virus isolate (Arm07). This is, to our knowledge, the first report of a promising vaccine against ASF virus in wild boar by oral administration. Further studies should assess the safety of repeated administration and overdose, characterize long-term shedding and verify the genetic stability of the vaccine virus to confirm if Lv17/WB/Rie1 could be used for free-ranging wild boar in ASF control programs.

BACKGROUND: African swine fever (ASF) is a viral infectious disease of domestic and wild suids of all breeds and ages, causing a wide range of hemorrhagic syndromes and frequently characterized by high mortality. The disease is endemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and Sardinia. Since 2007, it has also been present in different countries of Eastern Europe, where control measures have not been effective so far. The continued spread poses a serious threat to the swine industry worldwide. In the absence of vaccine, early detection of infected animals is of paramount importance for control of the outbreak, to prevent the transmission of the virus to healthy animals and subsequent spreading of the disease. Current laboratory diagnosis is mainly based on virological methods (antigen and genome detection) and serodiagnosis. RESULTS: In the present work, a Lateral Flow Assay (LFA) for antigen detection has been developed and evaluated. The test is based on the use of a MAb against VP72 protein of ASFV, the major viral capsid protein and highly immunogenic. First experiments using VP72 viral and recombinant protein or inactivated culture virus showed promising results with a sensitivity similar to that of a commercially available Antigen-ELISA. Moreover, these strips were tested with blood from experimentally infected pigs and field animals and the results compared with those of PCR and Antigen-ELISA. For the experimentally infected samples, there was an excellent correlation between the LFA and the ELISA, while the PCR always showed to be more sensitive (38 % positive samples by PCR versus 27 % by LFA). The LFA was demonstrated to be positive for animals with circulating virus levels exceeding 10(4) HAU. With the field samples, once again, the PCR detected more positives than either the Antigen-ELISA or LFA, although here the number of positive samples scored by the LFA exceeded the values obtained with the Antigen-ELISA, showing 60 % positivity vs 48 % for the ELISA. For the two groups of sera, the specificity was close to 100 % indicating that hardly any false positive samples were found. CONCLUSIONS: The newly developed LFA allows rapid and reliable detection of ASFV, at field and laboratory level, providing a new useful tool for control programs and in situations where laboratory support and skilled personnel are limited.

Abstract Urban climate modifications like the urban heat island (UHI) have been extensively investigated in temperate regions. In contrast, the understanding of how urbanization relates to climate in hot, hyperarid environments is still extremely limited, despite the growing socioeconomic relevance of arid lands and their fast urbanization rate. We explore here the relationship between land cover and temperature regime in hot desert cities (HDCs) based on estimates of land surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, and impervious surface areas inferred from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Landsat satellite products. Our analysis shows that HDCs display common climatic patterns, with downtown areas on average cooler than suburbs during the daytime (urban cool island) and warmer at night (classical UHI). The observed diurnal cool island effect can be largely explained by relative vegetation abundance, percentage of bare soil, and local climatic conditions and calls for a more in deep investigation of the physical processes regulating boundary layer dynamics in arid regions.

This study aimed to compare the infection dynamics of three genotype II African swine fever viruses (ASFV) circulating in Europe. Eighteen domestic pigs divided into three groups were infected intramuscularly or by direct contact with two haemadsorbent ASFVs (HAD) from Poland (Pol16/DP/ OUT21) and Estonia (Est16/WB/Viru8), and with the Latvian non-HAD ASFV (Lv17/WB/Rie1). Parameters, such as symptoms, pathogenicity, and distribution of the virus in tissues, humoral immune response, and dissemination of the virus by blood, oropharyngeal and rectal routes, were investigated. The Polish ASFV caused a case of rapidly developing fatal acute disease, while the Estonian ASFV caused acute to sub-acute infections and two animals survived. In contrast, animals infected with the ASFV from Latvia developed a more subtle, mild, or even subclinical disease. Oral excretion was sporadic or even absent in the attenuated group, whereas in animals that developed an acute or sub-acute form of ASF, oral excretion began at the same time the ASFV was detected in the blood, or even 3 days earlier, and persisted up to 22 days. Regardless of virulence, blood was the main route of transmission of ASFV and infectious virus was isolated from persistently infected animals for at least 19 days in the attenuated group and up to 44 days in the group of moderate virulence. Rectal excretion was limited to the acute phase of infection. In terms of diagnostics, the ASFV genome was detected in contact pigs from oropharyngeal samples earlier than in blood, independently of virulence. Together with blood, both samples could allow to detect ASFV infection for a longer period. The results presented here provide quantitative data on the spread and excretion of ASFV strains of different virulence among domestic pigs that can help to better focus surveillance activities and, thus, increase the ability to detect ASF introductions earlier.

El objetivo de esta investigación es estimar la magnitud de la segregación escolar por nivel socioeconómico en España y por Comunidad Autónoma, comparando los resultados con los países de la Unión Europea. Para ello realiza una explotación especial de los datos PISA-2015, utilizando los índices de Gorard y de Aislamiento. Los resultados indican que la segregación promedio es España en su dimensión de uniformidad es de 0,38 (índice de Gorard) y de 0,32 en su dimensión de exposición (índice de Aislamiento). Estos datos indican que España es uno de los países más segregados de Europa, con cifras análogas a los países de Este más segregados y muy alejadas de los países de su contexto más cercano. La segregación escolar en las Comunidades ofrece resultados extremos, algunas se encuentran entre las más bajas de Europa (Illes Balears, Galicia y Aragón) y otras como la Comunidad de Madrid con una segregación muy alta, solo superada por Hungría dentro de la Unión Europea. Con todo ello se observa la incidencia de las políticas educativas regionales respecto a los criterios de admisión de centros en la segregación escolar, mostrando que políticas como el fomento de la educación privada, de la competencia de centros mediante la publicación de rankings o la creación de un distrito único puede configurar sistemas educativos inequitativos que atentan a la igualdad de oportunidades.

African swine fever (ASF) is a complex infectious disease of swine that constitutes devastating impacts on animal health and the world economy. Here, we investigated the evolutionary epidemiology of ASF virus (ASFV) in Eurasia and Africa using the concatenated gene sequences of the viral protein 72 and the central variable region of isolates collected between 1960 and 2015. We used Bayesian phylodynamic models to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the virus, to identify virus population demographics and to quantify dispersal patterns between host species. Results suggest that ASFV exhibited a significantly high evolutionary rate and population growth through time since its divergence in the 18th century from East Africa, with no signs of decline till recent years. This increase corresponds to the growing pig trade activities between continents during the 19th century, and may be attributed to an evolutionary drift that resulted from either continuous circulation or maintenance of the virus within Africa and Eurasia. Furthermore, results implicate wild suids as the ancestral host species (root state posterior probability = 0.87) for ASFV in the early 1700s in Africa. Moreover, results indicate the transmission cycle between wild suids and pigs is an important cycle for ASFV spread and maintenance in pig populations, while ticks are an important natural reservoir that can facilitate ASFV spread and maintenance in wild swine populations. We illustrated the prospects of phylodynamic methods in improving risk-based surveillance, support of effective animal health policies, and epidemic preparedness in countries at high risk of ASFV incursion.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a highly pathogenic, double-stranded DNA virus with a marked tropism for cells of the monocyte-macrophage lineage, affecting swine species and provoking severe economic losses and health threats. In the present study, four established porcine cell lines, IPAM-WT, IPAM-CD163, C∆2+ and WSL, were compared to porcine alveolar macrophage (PAM) in terms of surface marker phenotype, susceptibility to ASFV infection and virus production. The virulent ASFV Armenia/07, E70 or the naturally attenuated NHV/P68 strains were used as viral models. Cells expressed only low levels of specific receptors linked to the monocyte/macrophage lineage, with low levels of infection overall, with the exception of WSL, which showed more efficient production of strain NHV/P68 but not of strains E70 and Armenia/07.

Introduction African swine fever (ASF) is a contagious viral disease of pigs and wild boar that poses a major threat to the global swine industry. The genotype II African swine fever virus (ASFV) entered the European Union (EU) in 2014 and since then fourteen countries have been affected, Italy and North Macedonia being the last in 2022. While whole genome sequencing remains the gold standard for the identification of new genetic markers, sequencing of multiple loci with significant variations could be used as a rapid and cost-effective alternative to track outbreaks and study disease evolution in endemic areas. Materials and methods To further our understanding of the epidemiology and spread of ASFV in Europe, 382 isolates collected during 2007 to 2022 were sequenced. The study was initially performed by sequencing the central variable region (CVR), the intergenic region (IGR) between the I73R and I329L genes and the O174L and K145R genes. For further discrimination, two new PCRs were designed to amplify the IGR between the 9R and 10R genes of the multigene family 505 (MGF505) and the IGR between the I329L and I215L genes. The sequences obtained were compared with genotype II isolates from Europe and Asia. Results The combination of the results obtained by sequencing these variable regions allowed to differentiate the European II-ASFV genotypes into 24 different groups. In addition, the SNP identified in the IGR I329L - I215L region, not previously described, grouped the viruses from North Macedonia that caused the 2022 outbreaks with viruses from Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Greece, differentiating from other genotype II isolates present in Europe and Asia. Furthermore, tandem repeat sequence (TRS) within the 9R - 10R genes of the multigene family 505 (MGF505) revealed eight different variants circulating. Discussion These findings describe a new multi-gene approach sequencing method that can be used in routine genotyping to determine the origin of new introductions in ASF-free areas and track infection dynamics in endemic areas.

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly lethal haemorrhagic disease in domestic and wild swine that has acquired great importance in sub-Saharan Africa since 1997. ASF was first reported in Cameroon in 1982 and was detected only in Southern Cameroon (South, West, East, Northwest, Southwest, Littoral, and Centre regions) until February 2010 when suspected ASF outbreaks were reported in the North and Far North regions. We investigated those outbreaks by analysing samples that were collected from sick pigs between 2010 and 2018. We confirmed 428 positive samples by ELISA and real-time PCR and molecularly characterized 48 representative isolates. All the identified virus isolates were classified as ASFV genotype I based on the partial B646L gene (C-terminal end of VP72 gene) and the full E183L gene encoding p54 protein analysis. Furthermore, analysis of the central variable region (CVR) within the B602L gene demonstrated that there were 3 different variants of ASFV genotype I, with 19, 20, and 21 tetrameric tandem repeat sequences (TRSs), that were involved in the 2010-2018 outbreaks in Cameroon. Among them, only variant A (19 TRSs) was identical to the Cam/82 isolate found in the country during the first outbreaks in 1981-1982. This study demonstrated that the three variants of ASFV isolates involved in these outbreaks were similar to those of neighbouring countries, suggesting a movement of ASFV strains across borders. Designing common control measures in affected regions and providing a compensation programme for farmers will help reduce the incidence and spread of this disease.