Federal Office of Bundeswehr Equipment, Information Technology and In-Service Support

OBJECTIVE: Due to the combination of local trauma, extracorporeal circulation (ECC), and pulmonary and myocardial reperfusion, cardiac surgery leads to substantial changes in the immune system and possibly to post-operative complications. Procedures without ECC, however, have failed to demonstrate clear advantages. We hypothesized that ECC is far less important in this context than the reperfusion/reventilation of the lung parenchyma and the surgical trauma. We therefore conducted a prospective observational study to compare immune reactions after cardiac operations with those after thoracic surgery. METHODS: Serum levels of pro-inflammatory interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha as well as C-reactive protein (CRP), lipoprotein-binding protein (LBP) and procalcitonin (PCT) were measured pre-operatively (d0), at the end of the operation (dx), 6h after the operation (dx+), on the 1st (d1), 3rd (d3), and 5th (d5) post-operative days in 108 patients (pts) undergoing elective coronary artery bypass grafting (CAB) with ECC (n=42, CPB CAB), off-pump coronary artery bypass surgery (n=24, OP CAB) without ECC or thoracic surgery (n=42, TS). RESULTS: After cardiac surgery (CS), IL-6 and IL-8 increased and reached a maximum on dx+. IL-6 returned to baseline values at d3, whereas IL-8 remained elevated until d5. No difference was found between OP CAB and CPB CAB patients. In the TS patients, IL-6 increased later (dx+) and absolute levels were lower than in the CS patients. No increase in IL-8 was noted in the TS patients. Due to the high variation in the results obtained in all three groups, there was no significant change in TNF-alpha. A comparison of TS, OP CAB, and CPB CAB revealed that the CS patients had higher levels on d0, dx, d3, and d5. Serum levels of CRP, LBP, and IL-2R increased from dx+ to d5 in all groups and reached maximum values on d3. Whereas we found no difference in CRP and IL-2R between the groups, LBP levels were significantly higher from dx+ to d3 after OP CAB. PCT was elevated from dx+ to d3 in all pts. Similar levels were noted for the TS and OP CAB patients. The CPB CAB patients showed the highest levels. CONCLUSIONS: Surgical trauma and reperfusion injury appear to represent the predominant factors resulting in immunologic changes after cardiac surgery. Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) may be less important for immune response and acute-phase reactions than previously suspected. In addition, our data indicate a relationship between IL-6 synthesis and the degree of surgical trauma. IL-8 appears to be elevated only after cardiac surgery whereas PCT liberation depended on the use of ECC.

There are currently no digital underwater communications standards. In this paper we describe JANUS, a simple multiple-access acoustic protocol designed and tested by the NATO Centre for Maritime Research and Experimentation (CMRE) over the past 6 years that provides a basic and robust tool for collaborative underwater communications. JANUS is in process to become a NATO standard but is not intended to be solely military nor only for NATO, but also for civil and international adoption. JANUS is unique in its open and public nature such that academia, industry and governments may all benefit from its use. The specification of the signal encoding and message format is fully described so that anyone may construct a transmitter/receiver to communicate via JANUS to any other compliant platform. While JANUS is deliberately simple to allow easy adoption by legacy equipment, the protocol also offers the freedom to utilize sophisticated receivers and decoders allowing performance to be significantly improved.

Operational underwater noise emitted at 8 m s -1 by a 550 kW WindWorld wind-turbine was recorded from the sea and modified to simulate a 2 MW wind-turbine. The sound was replayed from an audio CD through a car CD-player and a J-13 transducer. The maximum sound energy was emitted between 30 and 800 Hz with peak source levels of 128 dB (re 1 Pa 2 Hz -1 at 1 m) at 80 and 160 Hz (1/3-octave centre frequencies). This simulated 2 MW wind-turbine noise was played back on calm days (<1 Beaufort) to free-ranging harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena and harbour seals Phoca vitulina in Fortune Channel, Vancouver Island, Canada. Swimming tracks of porpoises and surfacings of seals were recorded with an electronic theodolite situated on a clifftop 14 m above sea level. Echolocation activity of harbour porpoises close to the sound source was recorded simultaneously via an electronic click detector placed below the transducer. In total we tracked 375 porpoise groups and 157 seals during play-back experiments, and 380 porpoise groups and 141 surfacing seals during controls. Both species showed a distinct reaction to wind-turbine noise. Surfacings in harbour seals were recorded at larger distances from the sound source (median = 284 vs 239 m during controls; p = 0.008, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) and closest approaches increased from a median of 120 to 182 m (p < 0.001) in harbour porpoises. Furthermore, the number of time intervals during which porpoise echolocation clicks were detected increased by a factor of 2 when the sound source was active (19.6% of all 1 min intervals as opposed to 8.4% of all intervals during controls; p < 0.001).These results show that harbour porpoises and harbour seals are able to detect the low-frequency sound generated by offshore wind-turbines. Controlled exposure experiments such as the one described here are a first step to assess the impact on marine mammals of the new offshore wind-turbine industry.

UNLABELLED: Sevoflurane (CH2F-O-CH[CF3]2) reacts with carbon dioxide absorbents to produce Compound A (CH2F-O-C[=CF2][CF3]). Because of concern about the potential nephrotoxicity of Compound A, the United States package label (but not that of several other countries) for sevoflurane recommends the use of fresh gas flow rates of 2 L/min or more. We previously demonstrated in humans that a 2-L/min flow rate delivery of 1.25 minimum alveolar anesthetic concentration (MAC) sevoflurane for 8 h can injure glomeruli (i.e., produce albuminuria) and proximal tubules (i.e., produce glucosuria and urinary excretion of alpha-glutathione-S-transferase [alpha-GST]). The present report extends this investigation to fasting volunteers given 4 h (n = 9) or 2 h (n = 7) of 1.25 MAC sevoflurane versus desflurane at 2 L/min via a standard circle absorber anesthetic system (all subjects given both anesthetics). Markers of renal injury (urinary creatinine, albumin, glucose, alpha-GST, and blood urea nitrogen) did not reveal significant injury after anesthesia with desflurane. Sevoflurane degradation with a 2-L/min fresh gas inflow rate produced average inspired concentrations of Compound A of 40 +/- 4 ppm (mean +/- SD, 8-h exposure [data from previous study]), 42 +/- 2 ppm (4 h), and 40 +/- 5 ppm (2 h). Relative to desflurane, sevoflurane given for 4 h caused statistically significant transient injury to glomeruli (slightly increased urinary albumin and serum creatinine) and to proximal tubules (increased urinary alpha-GST). Other measures of injury did not differ significantly between anesthetics. Neither anesthetic given for 2 h at 1.25 MAC produced injury. We conclude that 1.25 MAC sevoflurane plus Compound A produces dose-related glomerular and tubular injury with a threshold between 80 and 168 ppm/h of exposure to Compound A. This threshold for renal injury in normal humans approximates that found previously in normal rats. IMPLICATIONS: Human (and rat) kidneys are injured by a reactive compound (Compound A) produced by degradation of the clinical inhaled anesthetic, sevoflurane. Injury increases with increasing duration of exposure to a given concentration of Compound A. The response to Compound A has several implications, as discussed in the article.

Sevoflurane (CH2 F-O-CH[CF3]2) reacts with carbon dioxide absorbents to produce Compound A (CH2 F-O-C[=CF2][CF3]). Because of concern about the potential nephrotoxicity of Compound A, the United States package label (but not that of several other countries) for sevoflurane recommends the use of fresh gas flow rates of 2 L/min or more. We previously demonstrated in humans that a 2-L/min flow rate delivery of 1.25 minimum alveolar anesthetic concentration (MAC) sevoflurane for 8 h can injure glomeruli (i.e., produce albuminuria) and proximal tubules (i.e., produce glucosuria and urinary excretion of alpha-glutathione-S-transferase [alpha-GST]). The present report extends this investigation to fasting volunteers given 4 h (n = 9) or 2 h (n = 7) of 1.25 MAC sevoflurane versus desflurane at 2 L/min via a standard circle absorber anesthetic system (all subjects given both anesthetics). Markers of renal injury (urinary creatinine, albumin, glucose, alpha-GST, and blood urea nitrogen) did not reveal significant injury after anesthesia with desflurane. Sevoflurane degradation with a 2-L/min fresh gas inflow rate produced average inspired concentrations of Compound A of 40 +/- 4 ppm (mean +/- SD, 8-h exposure [data from previous study]), 42 +/- 2 ppm (4 h), and 40 +/- 5 ppm (2 h). Relative to desflurane, sevoflurane given for 4 h caused statistically significant transient injury to glomeruli (slightly increased urinary albumin and serum creatinine) and to proximal tubules (increased urinary alpha-GST). Other measures of injury did not differ significantly between anesthetics. Neither anesthetic given for 2 h at 1.25 MAC produced injury. We conclude that 1.25 MAC sevoflurane plus Compound A produces dose-related glomerular and tubular injury with a threshold between 80 and 168 ppm/h of exposure to Compound A. This threshold for renal injury in normal humans approximates that found previously in normal rats. Implications: Human (and rat) kidneys are injured by a reactive compound (Compound A) produced by degradation of the clinical inhaled anesthetic, sevoflurane. Injury increases with increasing duration of exposure to a given concentration of Compound A. The response to Compound A has several implications, as discussed in the article. (Anesth Analg 1997;85:1154-63)

BACKGROUND: Musculoskeletal injuries (MSkIs) are a leading cause of health care utilization, as well as limited duty and disability in the US military and other armed forces. MSkIs affect members of the military during initial training, operational training, and deployment and have a direct negative impact on overall troop readiness. Currently, a systematic overview of all risk factors for MSkIs in the military is not available. METHODS: A systematic literature search was carried out using the PubMed, Ovid/Medline, and Web of Science databases from January 1, 2000 to September 10, 2019. Additionally, a reference list scan was performed (using the "snowball method"). Thereafter, an international, multidisciplinary expert panel scored the level of evidence per risk factor, and a classification of modifiable/non-modifiable was made. RESULTS: In total, 176 original papers and 3 meta-analyses were included in the review. A list of 57 reported potential risk factors was formed. For 21 risk factors, the level of evidence was considered moderate or strong. Based on this literature review and an in-depth analysis, the expert panel developed a model to display the most relevant risk factors identified, introducing the idea of the "order of importance" and including concepts that are modifiable/non-modifiable, as well as extrinsic/intrinsic risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: This is the qualitative systematic review of studies on risk factors for MSkIs in the military that has attempted to be all-inclusive. A total of 57 different potential risk factors were identified, and a new, prioritizing injury model was developed. This model may help us to understand risk factors that can be addressed, and in which order they should be prioritized when planning intervention strategies within military groups.

The determination of the blast protection level of laminated glass windows and facades is of crucial importance, and it is normally done by using experimental investigations. In recent years numerical methods have become much more powerful also with respect to this kind of application. This paper attempts to give a first idea of a possible standardization concerning such numerical simulations. Attention is drawn to the representation of the blast loading and to the proper description of the behaviour of the material of the mentioned products, to the geometrical meshing, and to the modelling of the connections of the glass components to the main structure. The need to validate the numerical models against reliable experimental data, some of which are indicated, is underlined.

This paper examines the requirements for the construction of a capacity-optimized multiple input multiple output (MIMO) line of sight (LOS) satellite channel between 2 geostationary satellites and Mr antennas placed on earth in general. It is shown that a full multiplexing gain through a geometrical optimized arrangement of the antennas can be achieved both for stationary anchor stations and mobile receivers.

Brucellosis is a worldwide zoonosis causing reproductive failures in livestock and a severe multi-organ disease in humans. The genus Brucella is divided into seven species and various biotypes differing in pathogenicity and host specificity. Although Brucella spp. represent a highly homogenous group of bacteria, RFLPs of selected genes display sufficient polymorphism to distinguish Brucella species and biovars. PCR-RFLP analysis shows excellent typeability, reproducibility, stability, and epidemiological concordance. Consequently, PCR-RFLP assays of specific gene loci can serve as tools for diagnostic, epidemiological, taxonomic, and evolutionary studies. Various PCR-RFLPs used for the identification of Brucella species and biotypes are reviewed.

This updated guideline replaces the "Guideline for the application of heart rate and heart rate variability in occupational medicine and occupational health science" first published in 2014. Based on the older version of the guideline, the authors have reviewed and evaluated the findings on the use of heart rate (HR) and heart rate variability (HRV) that have been published in the meantime and incorporated them into a new version of this guideline.This guideline was developed for application in clinical practice and research purposes in the fields of occupational medicine and occupational science to complement evaluation procedures with respect to exposure and risk assessment at the workplace by the use of objective physiological workload indicators. In addition, HRV is also suitable for assessing the state of health and for monitoring the progress of illnesses and preventive medical measures. It gives an overview of factors influencing the regulation of the HR and HRV at rest and during work. It further illustrates methods for measuring and analyzing these parameters under standardized laboratory and real workload conditions, areas of application as well as the quality control procedures to be followed during the recording and evaluation of HR and HRV.

The factory-based permethrin coating technique has only recently been developed. Consequently, no data are available on residual activity, laundering, and weathering resistance in impregnated battle dress uniforms (BDUs) worn under military deployment conditions, or on the cross-contamination potential of such uniforms. Herein, factory-impregnated BDUs worn-out during military deployment to Afghanistan were investigated for residual permethrin concentration, residual efficacy against arthropod vectors, and cross-contamination during laundering and storage. When compared with BDUs subjected to 50 defined washings using the U.S. Insect/Arthropod Repellent Fabric Treatment method, no significant differences in efficacy were observed against Aedes mosquitoes, but remaining knockdown activity in Ixodes ticks was significantly better in polymer-coated BDUs. BDUs impregnated by the polymer-coating method were found to be effective for the life of the uniform, ensuring protection of soldiers in the field from arthropod vectors, while causing less cross-contamination than those treated by the Insect/Arthropod Repellent Fabric Treatment method.

In the fabrication of fiber-reinforced plastics materials peel plies are commonly used as an additional layer on top of the laminates to sponge up the surplus resin and to create an activated surface for adhesive bonding or coating by peel ply removal. In theory, the peel ply removal results in a new and uncontaminated fracture surface that is activated by polymer chain scission. The peel ply method is often presented as being a good surface treatment for structural bonding. In this study carbon fiber-reinforced plastics (Hexcel® 8552/ IM7) were produced by the use of five different peel plies and a release foil made of polytetrafluorethylene (PTFE). The peel plies themselves and the surfaces on the CFRP created by peeling were examined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), x-ray photo electron spectroscopy (XPS), energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDX), infrared (IR) spectroscopy, atomic force microscopy (AFM), and contact angle measurements to characterize the surfaces produced. Furthermore, the bond strength of lap shear and floating roller peel samples was determined with and without additional plasma treatment. For bonding, a room temperature-curing two-component-epoxy adhesive (Hysol® 9395) was used to prove the applicability of different peel plies for structural adhesive bonding under repair conditions.

In this study, the authors propose a new tracking algorithm for multistatic sonar systems, where the measurements collected by different sensors are sent to a fusion centre. The proposed algorithm relies on the main idea behind the track-before-detect paradigm, which consists of processing data from several consecutive pings, and estimates target positions by maximising the likelihood function of the available measurements. The authors assume that one manoeuvring target is present within the surveillance area. The preliminary performance assessment, carried out on simulated scenarios, shows that the proposed algorithm has acceptable performance also when the probability of detection per sensor is low (in the order of 0.3) and measurement errors are significant.

OBJECTIVE: The activity of the specific immune system and especially the function of T helper (TH) cells are reduced after cardiac surgery. This decrease is followed by an increase in TH2 cell activity and a delayed recovery of TH1 cell function (TH1/TH2 shift). Neither the underlying cause nor the relationship between the absolute numbers of T lymphocyte subpopulations, the state of activation of these cells and cytokine synthesis in cell culture has been clarified. We conducted a prospective study in order to test the hypothesis that the decrease in specific immunity is not caused by dilution effects but by functional alterations in T cell subsets. METHODS: Blood samples were obtained from 40 patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) preoperatively (d0), immediately after surgery (dx), and on the 1st (d1), 3rd (d3) and 5th (d5) postoperative days. The samples were stimulated for 24h with staphylococcal enterotoxin B and lipopolysaccharide. Interferon (IFN)-gamma, interleukin (IL)-2, IL-4, and IL-5 concentrations were measured by flow cytometry using a cytokine bead array kit. We determined white blood cell counts, analysed lymphocyte populations, and assayed human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DR expression on cluster of differentiation (CD)4+ and CD8+ lymphocytes. Cytokine concentrations were corrected to preoperative absolute numbers of T helper cells. RESULTS: Leukocyte counts were elevated during the entire postoperative course with a maximum on dx. Absolute lymphocyte counts and especially the T cell subpopulations significantly increased immediately after surgery, then decreased to a minimum on d1 and increased again until they returned to preoperative levels on d3. The release of IFN-gamma, IL-2 and IL-4 was significantly reduced from dx to d5 with a minimum on d1. IL-5 was significantly reduced on dx and d1. When the concentrations were corrected to preoperative TH lymphocyte levels, IL-2 and IL-5 synthesis was significantly reduced only on dx and IL-4 release only on dx and d1. By contrast, IFN-gamma synthesis decreased postoperatively and remained suppressed until d5 with a minimum on d1. Only on d1 did an increase in HLA-DR expression give evidence of a change in the state of TH cell activation. CONCLUSIONS: The number of immune cells of the specific and the non-specific immune system is not reduced in the immediate postoperative period. Haemodilution thus has no detectable effect on immune function at this time point. Beginning on d1, the function of specific immune cells, especially TH lymphocytes, is severely suppressed. This functional alteration appears not to be preceded by T cell activation during CPB. Although TH cell activity begins to increase on d1, cytokine synthesis is reduced. When cytokine synthesis is corrected to the absolute number of TH cells in culture, there is strong evidence for an increase in TH2 cell activity. On the whole, these results corroborate the hypothesis of a TH1/TH2 shift that is primarily caused by an alteration of TH1 function. Neither haemodilution nor a preceding activation plays a major role.

A recA-PCR restriction fragment length polymorphism assay was developed to study intraspecies variation among Ochrobactrum anthropi. Primers deduced from the known recA gene sequence of the genetically closely related genus Brucella allowed the specific amplification of a 1065 bp recA fragment from each of the 38 O. anthropi and the eight Brucella strains investigated. RecA was also amplified from the type strains of O. intermedium, O. tritici, and O. lupini but could not be generated from O. grignonense and O. gallinifaecis. Subsequent comparative recA sequence- and HaeIII-recA restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis identified nine different genospecies among the tested 38 O. anthropi isolates, whereas the recA sequences of the Brucella spp. were indistinguishable. Furthermore, Brucella spp., O. anthropi, O. intermedium, and O. tritici were clearly separated from each other by means of their recA sequences and HaeIII restriction patterns. Five strains of uncertain species status listed in the Culture Collection University of Göteborg bacterial culture collection as O. anthropi were characterized by recA analysis, and their phylogenetic position within the Brucella-Ochrobactrum group was determined. In summary, recA-sequence analysis provides a new reliable molecular subtyping tool to study the phylogeny of the Ochrobactrum taxon at both the inter- and intraspecies level.

The prediction of underwater noise emissions from impact pile driving during near-shore and offshore construction activities and its potential effect on the marine environment has been a major field of research for several years. A number of different modeling approaches have been suggested recently to predict the radiated sound pressure at different distances and depths from a driven pile. As there are no closed-form analytical solutions for this complex class of problems and for a lack of publicly available measurement data, the need for a benchmark case arises to compare the different approaches. Such a benchmark case was set up by the Institute of Modelling and Computation, Hamburg University of Technology (Hamburg, Germany) and the Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO, The Hague, The Netherlands). Research groups from all over the world, who are involved in modeling sound emissions from offshore pile driving, were invited to contribute to the first so-called COMPILE (a portmanteau combining computation, comparison, and pile) workshop in Hamburg in June 2014. In this paper, the benchmark case is presented, alongside an overview of the seven models and the associated results contributed by the research groups from six different countries. The modeling results from the workshop are discussed, exhibiting a remarkable consistency in the provided levels out to several tens of kilometers. Additionally, possible future benchmark case extensions are proposed.

In line-of-sight (LOS) radio channels maximum multiple input multiple output (MIMO) channel capacity is obtained if an orthogonal MIMO channel transfer matrix is available. For the special case of the MIMO satellite channel, we will analytically derive a design prescript that allows for the construction of orthogonal channel matrices via the explicit positioning of two satellite antennas in the geostationary orbit. Simultaneously, a particular arrangement of an arbitrary number of ground station antennas placed on earth is assumed. In a computer simulation this conceptual design rule is illustrated and verified with a satellite communication link consisting of both a MIMO uplink channel and a MIMO downlink channel. The uplink is established between two anchor stations and a satellite system, also equipped with two antenna elements. In downlink direction the information is transferred from the two-antenna satellite system to a mobile receiver with an arbitrary number of antenna elements. The MIMO capacity optimization strategy is shown to exceed at least 90% of its theoretical maximum in all cases, nearly doubling the data rate compared to ordinary two- satellite MIMO systems, which are currently found in literature.

OBJECTIVE: To establish a reliable, rapid, economical method for detection of pestivirus infection in bovine and ovine fetuses and to examine participation of these viruses in abortions and neonatal mortality. ANIMALS: 213 bovine and 31 ovine fetuses, as well as 36 newborn calves and 25 lambs, which had died within 3 days after birth, were tested for bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) and border disease virus by use of different methods. PROCEDURE: Detection of BVDV in fetuses was performed by immunohistochemical methods, using a panel of monoclonal antibodies against pestivirus antigens on cryostat and paraffin sections and by virus isolation in cell culture; in some instances, an antigencapture ELISA was performed. Results of the various methods were compared. RESULTS: Sensitivity of BVDV detection by immunohistochemical methods and virus isolation in cell culture was equal; however, it decreased in association with autolysis. In autolytic fetuses, use of formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded brain sections was the most favorable method. Antigen detection by ELISA was less sensitive. CONCLUSIONS: Immunohistochemical analysis of cryostat sections of brain, skin, thyroid gland, abomasum, and placenta is a rapid, sensitive method for detecting pestiviruses in fetuses. In the presence of advanced autolysis, this method used on formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded brain sections is recommended over the other described methods.

This paper describes an experimental investigation of the use of Gurney flaps to control laminar separation on turbine blades in a linear cascade. Measurements were made at Reynolds numbers (based upon inlet velocity and axial chord) of 28×103,65×103 and 167×103. The freestream turbulence intensity for all three cases was 0.8%. Laminar separation was present on the suction surface of the Langston blade shape for the two lower Reynolds numbers. In an effort to control the laminar separation, Gurney flaps were added to the pressure surface close to the trailing edge. The measurements indicate that the flaps turn and accelerate the flow in the blade passage toward the suction surface of the neighboring blade thereby eliminating the separation bubble. Five different sizes of Gurney flaps, ranging from 0.6 to 2.7% of axial chord, were tested. The laser thermal tuft technique was used to determine the influence of the Gurney flaps on the location and size of the separation bubble. Additionally, measurements of wall static pressure, profile loss, and blade-exit flow angle were made. The blade pressure distribution indicates that the lift generated by the blade is increased. As was expected, the Gurney flap also produced a larger wake. In practice, Gurney flaps might possibly be implemented in a semi-passive manner. They could be deployed for low Reynolds number operation and then retracted at high Reynolds numbers when separation is not present. This work is important because it describes a successful means for eliminating the separation bubble while characterizing both the potential performance improvement and the penalties associated with this semi-passive flow control technique.

This article deals with the emergence of Futures Research after 1945 and its production of future expertise. The field of futures research (or futures studies/futurology) was conceptualised in a process of circulating knowledge in Western Europe and the USA during the 1950s and 1960s. These approaches to thinking about, forecasting and planning the future drew their arsenal of new methods largely from the field of cybernetics (such as Systems Analysis). What is more, futures research produced expertise for policy development and strategic planning. As a result of the dynamic changes in science and technology and the breakthrough of Keynesianism, the 1960s symbolized the high time of political planning in Western Europe and the USA. The paper aims to analyse the forms and character of future expertise utilized in government and administration during the 1960s. It will focus on West German futures research and its advisory role for the Federal Government but will also take transnational transfers of knowledge and comparative aspects into account. The paper will show that major strands of futures research of the 1960s were explicitly confident that they would be able to plan and control the future by using "modern" and rational methods. This led partly to a euphoria of steering. In the early 1970s, however, this confidence was shattered. One reason for this were dramatic problems in utilizing future expertise in government.