FitzPatrick Institute of African Ornithology

1. Correlational studies of reproductive success are plagued by difficulty over the direction of causation. For example, improved reproductive success with age can result from increased experience or reproductive effort, or selection against low-quality phenotypes that survive poorly. An association between supernumeraries and reproductive success in cooperative breeders can arise either because supernumeraries boost productivity, or productive territories accumulate supernumeraries. 2. Paired comparisons of parents sampled with and without supernumeraries have recently been widely applied to quantify help. However, Dickinson & Hatchwell (2004) have argued that this approach is flawed. They conjectured that those groups that gain supernumeraries are a biased superior sample of those that initially lack supernumeraries, while groups that lose supernumeraries will be a sample of inferior cooperative groups. They predict that these biased comparisons will underestimate the effect of help. 3. This conjecture has neither been explored theoretically, nor empirically tested. We use data from a 19-year study of the superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus to examine the conjecture and derive predictors of annual reproductive success in this species. 4. We introduce statistical models of reproductive success based on a zero-inflated Poisson link function to identify three strong correlates of reproductive success: high spring rainfall, progress from the first to later years of life, and acquisition of supernumeraries. 5. First year females that died after breeding and those that survived to breed again had similar productivity. As female productivity improves with age, increased reproductive skill or effort is implicated rather than selection against inferior phenotypes. 6. We argue that the Dickinson-Hatchwell conjecture does not constrain paired comparisons in M. cyaneus. The dominant male and breeding female gain no immediate fecundity advantage from supernumeraries. 7. Effects on the future survival of dominants are even more difficult, as while helpers could enhance survival of dominants, a territory that facilitates survival should also accumulate philopatric supernumeraries. Males, the philopatric sex, did not survive better on territories with supernumeraries. However, females, the dispersive sex, had higher survival as the number of supernumeraries increased, because helpers allowed them to reduce the costs of reproduction. These data exacerbate the paradox posed by previously reported costs that supernumeraries impose on dominant males.

Abstract Aim Resource bottlenecks – periods of severe restriction in resource availability – triggered by increased climate variability represent important and little‐understood mechanisms through which climate change will affect biodiversity. In this review, we aim to synthesize the key global change processes that exacerbate the severity of bottlenecks in resource availability on animal populations, and outline how adaptation responses can help buffer the impacts. Location Global. Methods We collate examples from the literature of population‐level impacts of resource bottlenecks induced by extreme weather and climate events to explore the types of population impacts that have most frequently been recorded, and the type of extreme events associated with them. We then develop a conceptual framework that captures the factors contributing to species’ vulnerability to climate‐induced spatial and temporal resource bottlenecks in increasingly variable environments. Results Increases in the frequency, severity and/or duration of extreme weather and climate events can trigger resource bottlenecks that act as powerful demographic constraints on terrestrial fauna, and often exacerbate other human‐induced pressures such as land use change. Such phenomena are likely to become more frequent and severe, with potentially nonlinear increases in impact. Forty‐nine instances of population‐level impacts from climate‐induced resource bottlenecks were recorded from the literature, including four extinctions and ten population crashes. Anthropogenic land use change interacts with increasing climatic variability to exacerbate these resource ‘crunches’, but can sometimes act as a buffer for species. Main Conclusions Resource bottlenecks are likely to be a large class of climate‐sensitive stressors whose impacts may play out at the population scale, even well within a species’ apparent climatic envelope. More effective conservation responses to climate‐related threats include explicit actions, such as managing protected area networks for spatial and temporal resource complementarities, that buffer vulnerable species against bottlenecks.

Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus movements were investigated in southern Africa to determine whether an individual's age, sex or breeding status influenced its ranging behaviour and to provide the information required to guide conservation activities. Data from satellite transmitters fitted to 18 individuals of four age classes were used to determine range size and use. Because of the nature of the movements of marked individuals, these data could be used to determine the overall foraging range of the entire population, which was estimated to be 51 767 km(2). Although juvenile, immature and sub-adult birds used different parts of the overall range, their combined foraging range was 65% (33 636 km(2)) of the overall range. Average adult home ranges (286 km(2)) were only around 1% the size of the average foraging ranges of non-adults (10 540 -25 985 km(2)), with those of breeding adults being even smaller (95 km(2)). Home ranges of breeding adults did not vary in size between seasons but adults utilized their home range more intensively whilst breeding, moving greater distances during the incubation and chick hatching period. Range size and use increased as non-adults aged. Immatures and sub-adults had larger range sizes during winter, but range use of non-adults did not vary seasonally. Range size and use did not differ between the sexes in any of the age classes. Information on home range size and use enables specific areas within the species' range to be targeted for management planning, education and conservation action.

Understanding how reproduction is partitioned between group members is essential in explaining the apparent reproductive altruism of cooperatively breeding systems. Here, we use genetic data from a population of cooperatively breeding pied babblers (<it>Turdoides bicolor</it>) to show that reproduction is highly skewed toward behaviorally dominant birds. Dominant birds monopolized reproduction, accounting for 95.2% of all chicks. Inbreeding avoidance appears to constrain subordinate reproduction because the rare incidences of subordinate reproduction occurred only with unrelated members of their groups. However, even when unrelated potential breeding partners were present in the group, subordinates rarely bred. Although half of chicks hatched into groups where subordinates could potentially breed, only 9.6% of these chicks had a subordinate parent, indicating that additional factors limit subordinate reproduction, such as reproductive conflict with dominants. Groups were highly kin structured and most subordinates were closely related to one another such that help was almost invariably directed toward close relatives. Consequently, helping in this species confers indirect fitness benefits on subordinates, which are likely to play an important role in the evolution and maintenance of cooperative helping behavior.

A facultatively anaerobic, Gram-positive, coccoid, non-spore-forming, non-motile, catalase-negative bacterium was isolated from the uropygial (preen) gland of wild Red-billed Woodhoopoes (Phoeniculus purpureus) and designated strain JLB-1(T). Physiological and biochemical testing suggested that this homofermentative, lactic-acid-producing bacterium could belong to the genus Enterococcus or the genus Streptococcus. Comparison of the 16S rRNA gene sequence of strain JLB-1(T) with other 16S rDNA sequences in the GenBank database by BLAST analysis showed that its closest relatives are Enterococcus faecium, Enterococcus avium and Enterococcus asini. Strain JLB-1(T) may be differentiated from these species by the fact that it does not produce acid from lactose, D-mannitol, D(+)-melezitose or D-sorbitol. Furthermore, it does not hydrolyse arginine or hippurate and cannot grow in the presence of 6.5% NaCl or 40% bile. It differs from the streptococci in that it does not lyse erythrocytes. Strain JLB-1(T) is a novel member of the enterococci, for which the name Enterococcus phoeniculicola sp. nov. is proposed. The type strain is JLB-1(T) (=ATCC BAA-412(T) = DSM 14726(T)).

Many long-distance migrating shorebird (i.e., sandpipers, plovers, flamingos, oystercatchers) populations are declining. Although regular shorebird monitoring programs exist worldwide, most estimates of shorebird population trends and sizes are poor or nonexistent. We built a state-space model to estimate shorebird population trends. Compared with more commonly used methods of trend estimation, state-space models are more mechanistic, allow for the separation of observation and state process, and can easily accommodate multivariate time series and nonlinear trends. We fitted the model to count data collected from 1990 to 2013 on 18 common shorebirds at the 2 largest coastal wetlands in southern Africa, Sandwich Harbour (a relatively pristine bay) and Walvis Bay (an international harbor), Namibia. Four of the 12 long-distance migrant species declined since 1990: Ruddy Turnstone (Arenaria interpres), Little Stint (Calidris minuta), Common Ringed Plover (Charadrius hiaticula), and Red Knot (Calidris canutus). Populations of resident species and short-distance migrants increased or were stable. Similar patterns at a key South African wetland suggest that shorebird populations migrating to southern Africa are declining in line with the global decline, but local conditions in southern Africa's largest wetlands are not contributing to these declines. State-space models provide estimates of population levels and trends and could be used widely to improve the current state of water bird estimates. Declinaciones en las Poblaciones de Aves Costeras Migrantes a partir de una Perspectiva de Residencias Invernales Muchas poblaciones de aves de costa que migran grandes distancias (p. ej.: zarapitos, chorlitos, flamencos, ostreros) están declinando. Aunque existen programas regulares de monitoreo de estas aves a nivel mundial, la mayoría de las estimaciones de sus tendencias y tamaños poblacionales son pobres o no existen. Construimos un modelo de estado-espacio para estimar las tendencias poblacionales de estas aves. Al compararlos con los métodos de estimación de tendencias usados más comúnmente, los modelos de estado-espacio son más mecánicos, permiten la separación del proceso de observación y de estado, y pueden acomodar fácilmente series de tiempo multi-variadas y tendencias no-lineales. Ajustamos el modelo para que contara datos colectados de 1990 a 2013 sobre 18 aves de costa, comunes en dos de los humedales más grandes del sur de África: Puerto Sándwich (una bahía relativamente prístina) y Bahía Walvis (un puerto internacional), Namibia. Cuatro de las 12 especies que migran grandes distancias declinaron significativamente desde 1990: Arenaria interpres, Calidris minuta, Charadrius hiaticula y Calidris canutus. Las poblaciones de las especies residentes o que migran distancias cortas incrementaron o se mantuvieron estables. Los patrones similares en un humedal importante de Sudáfrica sugieren que las poblaciones de aves de costa que migran al sur de África están declinando a la par con la declinación global, pero que las condiciones locales en los humedales más grandes del sur del continente no están contribuyendo a estas declinaciones. Los modelos de estado-espacio proporcionan estimados de los niveles y las tendencias poblacionales y podrían usarse ampliamente para mejorar el estado actual de las estimaciones de las aves acuáticas. Disclaimer: Supplementary materials have been peer-reviewed but not copyedited. Please note: The publisher is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting information supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing content) should be directed to the corresponding author for the article.

Island populations provide natural laboratories for studying key contributors to evolutionary change, including natural selection, population size and the colonization of new environments. The demographic histories of island populations can be reconstructed from patterns of genetic diversity. House mice (Mus musculus) inhabit islands throughout the globe, making them an attractive system for studying island colonization from a genetic perspective. Gough Island, in the central South Atlantic Ocean, is one of the remotest islands in the world. House mice were introduced to Gough Island by sealers during the 19th century and display unusual phenotypes, including exceptionally large body size and carnivorous feeding behaviour. We describe genetic variation in Gough Island mice using mitochondrial sequences, nuclear sequences and microsatellites. Phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial sequences suggested that Gough Island mice belong to Mus musculus domesticus, with the maternal lineage possibly originating in England or France. Cluster analyses of microsatellites revealed genetic membership for Gough Island mice in multiple coastal populations in Western Europe, suggesting admixed ancestry. Gough Island mice showed substantial reductions in mitochondrial and nuclear sequence variation and weak reductions in microsatellite diversity compared with Western European populations, consistent with a population bottleneck. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) estimated that mice recently colonized Gough Island (~100 years ago) and experienced a 98% reduction in population size followed by a rapid expansion. Our results indicate that the unusual phenotypes of Gough Island mice evolved rapidly, positioning these mice as useful models for understanding rapid phenotypic evolution.

Summary Eavesdropping behaviour can increase the total amount of information available to an individual and therefore has the potential to provide substantial benefits. Recent research has suggested that some species are ‘information givers’, particularly social species with cooperative vigilance systems, and that these species may consequently affect community structure by influencing the behaviour and niche utilization of other species. Here, using behavioural observations and playback experiments, we compared the behavioural change in a solitary species (the scimitarbill) and a social species (the pied babbler), to the presence and alarm calls of one another. Our results revealed that scimitarbills underwent significant behavioural changes in the presence of social pied babblers: they reduced their vigilance rate by over 60%, increased their foraging efficiency and expanded their niche by moving into open habitat and excavating subterranean food items. In contrast, pied babblers – who have an effective intraspecific sentinel system – did not show significant behavioural changes to the presence or alarm calls of scimitarbills. These results suggest that interspecific interceptive eavesdropping can provide significant benefits, influencing the behaviour and habitat utilization of eavesdropping species.

Background: Among the most widespread seabirds in the world, shearwaters of the genus Puffinus are also some of the deepest diving members of the Procellariiformes. Maximum diving depths are known for several Puffinus species, but dive depths or diving behaviour have never been recorded for great shearwaters (P. gravis), the largest member of this genus. This study reports the first high sampling rate (2 s) of depth and diving behaviour for Puffinus shearwaters.

Brood parasite – host systems continue to offer insights into species coevolution. A notable system is the redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus parasitized by the ‘redstart‐cuckoo’ Cuculus canorus gens. Redstarts are the only regular cuckoo hosts that breed in cavities, which challenges adult cuckoos in egg laying and cuckoo chicks in host eviction. We investigated parasitism in this system and found high overall parasitism rates (31.1% of 360 redstart nests), but also that only 33.1% of parasitism events (49 of 148 eggs) were successful in laying eggs into redstart nest cups. The majority of cuckoo eggs were mislaid and found on the rim of the nest; outside the nest cup. All available evidence suggests these eggs were not ejected by hosts. The effective parasitism rate was therefore only 12.8% of redstart nests. Redstarts responded to natural parasitism by deserting their nests in 13.0% of cases, compared to desertion rates of 2.8% for non‐parasitized nests. Our egg parasitism experiments found low rates (12.2%) of rejection of artificial non‐mimetic cuckoo eggs. Artificial mimetic and real cuckoo eggs added to nests were rejected at even lower rates, and were always rejected via desertion. Under natural conditions, only 21 cuckoo chicks fledged of 150 cuckoo eggs laid. Adding to this low success, is that cuckoo chicks are sometimes unable to evict all host young, and were more likely to die as a result compared to cuckoo chicks reared alone. This low success seems to be mainly due to the cavity nesting strategy of the redstart which is a challenging obstacle for the cuckoo. The redstart‐cuckoo system appears to be a fruitful model system and we suggest much more emphasis should be placed on frontline defences such as nest site selection strategies when investigating brood parasite–host coevolution.

Abstract Cape gannets Morus capensis are predatory seabirds in the coastal waters of southern Africa where they feed on commercially important fish species. Using a combination of intensive monitoring at nest sites, tracking of radio-tagged birds and diet sampling, we determined the foraging ranges and foraging areas used by breeding gannets, and whether links existed between the broad-scale spatial distribution of foraging birds and the distribution of prey or the predominant wind regime. A total of 270 Cape gannets dispersing to forage from Malgas Island, South Africa, were tagged over three consecutive breeding seasons. Modal durations of foraging flights were six or 24 hours, depending on whether birds returned on the same day they left or remained at sea overnight. Few birds remained continuously at sea over two consecutive nights. Non-radio-tagged birds more frequently undertook shorter foraging trips than radio-tagged birds, indicating a behavioural response to handling. Some 23% of radio-tagged gannets triangulated throughout a complete foraging trip foraged within a maximum of about 60km of Malgas Island, 44% foraged between about 60km and 120km of the island and the remaining 33% flew beyond 120km, travelling a total of at least 240km. Flight directions of gannets departing from the island were non-random in two of the three seasons. Return flight directions were non-random in all three seasons. Most foraging flights were to the south-west of the island, birds generally returning with the prevailing wind and from the same general direction in which they departed. Birds returning with saury Scomberesox saurus did so significantly more frequently from a west-south-west direction. Birds feeding on the other two prey species were equally likely to return from any direction. Under average conditions, the energy benefit associated with returning under load with a tailwind as opposed to a headwind was equivalent to 12% of the average stomach sample mass. The observed distribution of flights probably reflects the large area of suitable foraging habitat to the south and south-west of the island and the energetic advantages of returning with the prevailing wind. Keywords: CAPE GANNETFEEDINGMORUS CAPENSISRADIOTELEMETRYSEABIRDSOUTH AFRICA

Sex-biased mortality can increase the risk of extinction of threatened populations. Numbers of the endangered African penguin Spheniscus demersus are decreasing rapidly and the smaller size of females, associated with their higher foraging effort during the breeding season, may place them at greater risk than males. Using records for the period 2004–2012 from a seabird rehabilitation centre in Cape Town, South Africa, we investigated the sex ratio of African penguins that died at the centre according to age class (adult, juvenile or chick) and cause of death (starvation/ parasitism/disease, injury/trauma or oiling). The large majority of adult and juvenile birds that died at the centre did so following starvation, parasitism or disease, rather than injury or oiling, and most of them (>60%) were females, whereas mortality of sexes was similar among chicks. Oiled birds received at the centre had high survival and release rates (93%); hence sex-biased mortality could not be determined for oiled birds. Female-biased mortality in African penguins could skew the adult sex ratio, which may further accelerate the rapid rate of decline of this species.

Abstract Aim To explore the magnitude and spatial patterns of last glacial stage orbitally forced climatic changes and suborbital climatic fluctuations in southern Africa, and to evaluate their potential roles in determining present biodiversity patterns. Location Africa south of 15° S. Methods Palaeoclimate scenarios for southern Africa were derived for 17 time slices using outputs from HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model experiments, including five designed to mimic Heinrich events. Species distribution models for birds of Karoo (45) or Fynbos (31) were used to simulate species' potential past distributions. Species‐richness patterns were assessed for each time slice, and minimum species richness for regional endemics of each biome determined for each grid cell. Areas of greatest ‘stability’ for endemics of each biome were identified using grid cells with greatest minimum richness. Results Simulated suborbital climatic fluctuations were of greater magnitude than orbitally forced changes and had anomalies of opposite sign in many areas. The principal local drivers of suborbital fluctuations were marked contrasts in South Atlantic circulation and temperature between experiments mimicking Heinrich events and those with only slow forcings. These contrasts in ocean circulation and temperature were consistent with marine sediment core evidence of changes in the South Atlantic coincident with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. Whereas orbitally forced last glacial climates generally resulted in range expansions and increased species richness in many grid cells compared with the present, the contrasting conditions of Heinrich events resulted in much reduced ranges and species richness, especially for Karoo species. Very few grid cells remained suitable for larger numbers of endemic species of either biome under all palaeoclimate scenarios examined, but this minority of ‘stable’ grid cells correspond to present diversity centres. Main conclusions Suborbital climatic fluctuations during the last glacial stage were probably of considerable magnitude in southern Africa. This may account for apparent inconsistencies between regional palaeoclimate records, as well as being key to determining present biodiversity patterns.

Polygamous mating is expected to occur in obligate avian brood parasites because the lack of parental care reduces the need for a stable reproductive bond. Unlike nesting species, an absence of the constraints resulting from raising offspring might also favour a flexible mating system that adjusts to changing ecological conditions. Information on brood parasites' mating systems and their spatio‐temporal variation is, however, still scant. Here we analysed the genetic mating patterns of Great Spotted Cuckoos Clamator glandarius in two populations in northern and southern Spain and compared the results with those of previous studies. Parentage analyses showed high levels of polygamy in both populations that contrast with a prevalence of monogamy previously reported in the southern population. We suggest that the differences arise from an increase in population density, which in turn increases the probability of intraspecific encounters and therefore opportunities for mating. We also found that a greater number of mates increased the number of offspring produced, both in males and in females. The increase in offspring production in females might be the result of enhanced fertilization success during the lengthy laying period. Our data, combined with previous reports, demonstrate plasticity in the genetic mating patterns of the Great Spotted Cuckoo that may be associated with large fluctuations in population density.

Abstract Adult male Green Woodhoopoes (Phoeniculus purpureus) are only 5–8% larger than adult females in most linear measures but have 36% longer bills. Such sexual dimorphism may result from sexual selection, reproductive role division, or ecological separation. Here, we show that there is little evidence that sexual selection is currently acting on bill dimorphism in the Green Woodhoopoe. (1) Breeding males did not have longer bills than nonbreeding males. (2) There was no significant relationship between bill length and reproductive success of breeding males. (3) Although there was greater variation in male than in female bill length, the coefficient of variation (5.3%) fell within the range of those for naturally selected traits. (4) Although male bill length was found to be positively allometric with body mass, female bill length followed a similar relationship and there was no significant difference between the allometric slopes of the two sexes. Maintenance of the bill dimorphism by reproductive role division also seems unlikely when considering the nesting and provisioning characteristics of the species. We therefore conclude that the extreme sexual dimorphism in Green Woodhoopoe bill length is maintained by ecological separation to reduce foraging competition. We cannot, however, rule out the possibility that the sexual dimorphism initially evolved as a consequence of sexual selection.

Abstract Lloyd, P., Craig, A.J.F.K., Hulley, P.E., Essop, M.F., Bloomer, P. & Crowe, T.M. 1997. Ecology and genetics of hybrid zones in the southern African Pycnonotus bulbul species complex. Ostrich 68 (2–4): 90–96. The closely related Blackeyed Bulbul Pycnonotus barbatus, Cape Bulbul P. capensis and Redeyed Bulbul P. nigricans have parapatric to locally sympatric distributions within southern Africa. Extensive hybridization along narrow transition zones between each of the three species pairs is described in a region of the Eastern Cape province, South Africa. The transition zones coincide with ecotones between different vegetation types, which in turn follow escarpments or mountain ranges. The lack of population density depressions within the hybrid zones, together with the variability of the hybrids, suggests the hybrids are viable. Sharp step clines in various phenotypic characters are described across the P. barbatus/P. nigricans hybrid zone. A mtDNA analysis found evidence of possible introgression between P. barbatus and P. capensis. All eight P. barbatus x P. nigricans hybrids analysed possessed P. barbatus mtDNA, suggesting the existence of either positive assortative mating or strong directional selection, but our data are unable to distinguish which. Our results do not support the dynamic-equilibrium model, but are compatible with the bounded-hybrid-superiority model. We conclude that the maintenance of the parapatric distributions of the different taxa is due mainly to differences in environmentally-associated fitness between parental phenotypes or among parental and hybrid phenotypes along an ecotone, with the narrowness of the hybrid zones maintained by the steepness of the environmental gradients crossing them.

Abstract: As a proven food resource generalist, Meyer's parrot ( Poicephalus meyeri ) was expected to track the availability of all significant food resources in its diet over time. Here we recorded all feeding activity during 366 standardized road transects for correlation with an index of relative food resource abundance over 18 mo. As expected, Meyer's parrot made food resource decisions according to relative abundance at landscape level. Feeding activity on food resources available throughout the year (e.g. ripe Kigelia africana fruit) or not visible from the air (e.g. unripe Diospyros lycoides fruit), however, did not correlate significantly with fluctuations in their relative resource abundance. In addition, over 70% of all feeding bouts were in the high canopy and over 70% of all food items consumed formed bi-coloured displays. The influence of estimated protein and energy acquisition rates from different food resources was insignificant. Therefore, important selection criteria for utilization by Meyer's parrot include relative abundance and visibility from the air (i.e. food resources with the highest probability of encounter when dispersing from a central roost). Sensitivity to fluctuations in resource abundance at landscape level demonstrates the relative importance of maximizing net gain per unit foraging time by minimizing foraging flight distance.

Systematists have not often made use of avian vocalizations to assess the taxonomic rank of birds, or to infer their phylogenetic relationships. The likely reasons for this stem from the perceived inability to distinguish genetic and ecological components of variation in vocalizations, the difficulty in detecting homology across taxa, as well as the diverse selection pressures acting on vocal characters which may make such characters particularly prone to convergent evolution. In this study, we scored and analysed DNA and vocal characters of two delineated assemblages of gamebirds, francolins and spurfowls. Our phylogenetic results suggest that short strophes evolved from longer strophes among taxa within the genera <i>Scleroptila</i> and <i>Peliperdix</i>. More generally, our results corroborate the francolin–spurfowl dichotomy, with francolin calls generally being long and tonal, containing a series of discrete elements that have detectable harmonics. In contrast, most spurfowls render short, atonal calls with elements that generally have no harmonics, although they may contain discrete elements. Phylogenetically, <i>Ortygornis sephaena</i> is placed with ‘true’ francolins and its closest relatives are the two phylogenetically enigmatic Asian francolins, the grey francolin, <i>Ortygornis pondicerianus</i>, and swamp francolin, <i>O. gularis</i>.

Pandas are endemic to iodine-poor environments and appear to be specialized for a goitrogenic staple diet. In particular, the importance of thiocyanate in bamboos might possibly have been overlooked in captive breeding programs. Although excreted in urine, thiocyanate first antagonizes absorption of iodine by the thyroid (of parent, fetus and suckling juveniles) and the mammary glands. In livestock and humans, subclinical deficiency of iodine is known to result in reproductive problems (including retardation of the fetus and suckling infant) even where the mother appears to be unaffected beyond slight hyperplasia of the thyroid and subtle hypothyroidism as reflected by levels of thyroid hormones. We suggest that the possibilities of iodine deficiency or excess should be carefully considered wherever the reproductive rates of pandas are unsatisfactory.

Estimates of annual survival rates of birds are valuable in a wide range of studies of population ecology and conservation. These include modelling studies to assess the impacts of climatic change or anthropogenic mortality for many species for which no reliable direct estimates of survival are available. We evaluate the performance of regression models in predicting adult survival rates of birds from values of demographic and ecological covariates available from textbooks and databases. We estimated adult survival for 67 species using dead recoveries of birds ringed in southern Africa and fitted regression models using five covariates: mean clutch size, mean body mass, mean age at first breeding, diet and migratory tendency. Models including these explanatory variables performed well in predicting adult survival in this set of species, both when phylogenetic relatedness of the species was taken into account using phylogenetic generalized least squares (51% of variation in logit survival explained) and when it was not (48%). Two independent validation tests also indicated good predictive power, as indicated by high correlations of observed with expected values in a leave‐one‐out cross validation test performed using data from the 67 species (35% of variation in logit survival explained), and when annual survival rates from independent mark–recapture studies of 38 southern African species were predicted from covariates and the regression using dead recoveries (48%). Clutch size and body mass were the most influential covariates, both with and without the inclusion of phylogenetic effects, and a regression model including only these two variables performed well in both of the validation tests (39 and 48% of variation in logit survival explained). Our regression models, including the version with only clutch size and body mass, are likely to perform well in predicting adult survival rate for southern African species for which direct survival estimates are not available.