Geocenter Denmark

Land change science has emerged as a fundamental component of global environmental change and sustainability research. This interdisciplinary field seeks to understand the dynamics of land cover and land use as a coupled human-environment system to address theory, concepts, models, and applications relevant to environmental and societal problems, including the intersection of the two. The major components and advances in land change are addressed: observation and monitoring; understanding the coupled system-causes, impacts, and consequences; modeling; and synthesis issues. The six articles of the special feature are introduced and situated within these components of study.

Abstract. Soils and other unconsolidated deposits in the northern circumpolar permafrost region store large amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC). This SOC is potentially vulnerable to remobilization following soil warming and permafrost thaw, but SOC stock estimates were poorly constrained and quantitative error estimates were lacking. This study presents revised estimates of permafrost SOC stocks, including quantitative uncertainty estimates, in the 0–3 m depth range in soils as well as for sediments deeper than 3 m in deltaic deposits of major rivers and in the Yedoma region of Siberia and Alaska. Revised estimates are based on significantly larger databases compared to previous studies. Despite this there is evidence of significant remaining regional data gaps. Estimates remain particularly poorly constrained for soils in the High Arctic region and physiographic regions with thin sedimentary overburden (mountains, highlands and plateaus) as well as for deposits below 3 m depth in deltas and the Yedoma region. While some components of the revised SOC stocks are similar in magnitude to those previously reported for this region, there are substantial differences in other components, including the fraction of perennially frozen SOC. Upscaled based on regional soil maps, estimated permafrost region SOC stocks are 217 ± 12 and 472 ± 27 Pg for the 0–0.3 and 0–1 m soil depths, respectively (±95% confidence intervals). Storage of SOC in 0–3 m of soils is estimated to 1035 ± 150 Pg. Of this, 34 ± 16 Pg C is stored in poorly developed soils of the High Arctic. Based on generalized calculations, storage of SOC below 3 m of surface soils in deltaic alluvium of major Arctic rivers is estimated as 91 ± 52 Pg. In the Yedoma region, estimated SOC stocks below 3 m depth are 181 ± 54 Pg, of which 74 ± 20 Pg is stored in intact Yedoma (late Pleistocene ice- and organic-rich silty sediments) with the remainder in refrozen thermokarst deposits. Total estimated SOC storage for the permafrost region is ∼1300 Pg with an uncertainty range of ∼1100 to 1500 Pg. Of this, ∼500 Pg is in non-permafrost soils, seasonally thawed in the active layer or in deeper taliks, while ∼800 Pg is perennially frozen. This represents a substantial ∼300 Pg lowering of the estimated perennially frozen SOC stock compared to previous estimates.

At the close of the Fourth International Polar Year, we take stock of the ecological consequences of recent climate change in the Arctic, focusing on effects at population, community, and ecosystem scales. Despite the buffering effect of landscape heterogeneity, Arctic ecosystems and the trophic relationships that structure them have been severely perturbed. These rapid changes may be a bellwether of changes to come at lower latitudes and have the potential to affect ecosystem services related to natural resources, food production, climate regulation, and cultural integrity. We highlight areas of ecological research that deserve priority as the Arctic continues to warm.

This paper introduces urban land teleconnections as a conceptual framework that explicitly links land changes to underlying urbanization dynamics. We illustrate how three key themes that are currently addressed separately in the urban sustainability and land change literatures can lead to incorrect conclusions and misleading results when they are not examined jointly: the traditional system of land classification that is based on discrete categories and reinforces the false idea of a rural-urban dichotomy; the spatial quantification of land change that is based on place-based relationships, ignoring the connections between distant places, especially between urban functions and rural land uses; and the implicit assumptions about path dependency and sequential land changes that underlie current conceptualizations of land transitions. We then examine several environmental "grand challenges" and discuss how urban land teleconnections could help research communities frame scientific inquiries. Finally, we point to existing analytical approaches that can be used to advance development and application of the concept.

The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami had major effects on coastal communities and ecosystems. An assessment of coastlines after the tsunami indicates that coastal vegetation such as mangroves and beach forests helped to provide protection and reduce effects on adjacent communities. In recent years, mangroves and other coastal vegetation have been cleared or degraded along many coastlines, increasing their vulnerability to storm and tsunami damage. Establishing or strengthening greenbelts of mangroves and other coastal forests may play a key role in reducing the effect of future extreme events.

It is suggested that the GRIP Greenland ice-core should constitute the stratotype for the Last Termination. Based on the oxygen isotope signal in that core, a new event stratigraphy spanning the time interval from ca. 22.0 to 11.5 k GRIP yr BP (ca. 19.0–10.0 k 14C yr BP) is proposed for the North Atlantic region. This covers the period from the Last Glacial Maximum, through Termination 1 of the deep-ocean record, to the Pleistocene–Holocene boundary, and encompasses the Last Glacial Late-glacial of the traditional northwest European stratigraphy. The isotopic record for this period is divided into two stadial episodes, Greenland Stadials 1 (GS-1) and 2 (GS-2), and two interstadial events, Greenland Interstadials 1 (GI-1) and2 (GI-2). In addition, GI-1 and GS-2 are further subdivided into shorter episodes. The event stratigraphy is equally applicable to ice-core, marine and terrestrial records and is considered to be a more appropriate classificatory scheme than the terrestrially based radiocarbon-dated chronostratigraphy that has been used hitherto. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Turbiditic and pelagic sedimentary rocks from the Isua supracrustal belt in west Greenland [more than 3700 million years ago (Ma)] contain reduced carbon that is likely biogenic. The carbon is present as 2- to 5-micrometer graphite globules and has an isotopic composition of delta13C that is about -19 per mil (Pee Dee belemnite standard). These data and the mode of occurrence indicate that the reduced carbon represents biogenic detritus, which was perhaps derived from planktonic organisms.

On the basis of synchronization of three carbon-14 (14C)-dated lacustrine sequences from Sweden with tree ring and ice core records, the absolute age of the Younger Dryas-Preboreal climatic shift was determined to be 11,450 to 11,390 +/- 80 years before the present. A 150-year-long cooling in the early Preboreal, associated with rising Delta14C values, is evident in all records and indicates an ocean ventilation change. This cooling is similar to earlier deglacial coolings, and box-model calculations suggest that they all may have been the result of increased freshwater forcing that inhibited the strength of the North Atlantic heat conveyor, although the Younger Dryas may have begun as an anomalous meltwater event.

Ecosystems along the 0°C mean annual isotherm are arguably among the most sensitive to changing climate and mires in these regions emit significant amounts of the important greenhouse gas methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere. These CH 4 emissions are intimately related to temperature and hydrology, and alterations in permafrost coverage, which affect both of those, could have dramatic impacts on the emissions. Using a variety of data and information sources from the same region in subarctic Sweden we show that mire ecosystems are subject to dramatic recent changes in the distribution of permafrost and vegetation. These changes are most likely caused by a warming, which has been observed during recent decades. A detailed study of one mire show that the permafrost and vegetation changes have been associated with increases in landscape scale CH 4 emissions in the range of 22–66% over the period 1970 to 2000.

Triassic-Jurassic

Soil moisture induced droughts are expected to become more frequent under future global climate change. Precipitation has been previously assumed to be mainly responsible for variability in summer soil moisture. However, little is known about the impacts of precipitation frequency on summer soil moisture, either interannually or spatially. To better understand the temporal and spatial drivers of summer drought, 415 site-years measurements observed at 75 flux sites world wide were used to analyze the temporal and spatial relationships between summer soil water content (SWC) and the precipitation frequencies at various temporal scales, i.e., from half-hourly, 3-hourly, 6-hourly, 12-hourly and 24-hourly measurements. Summer precipitation was found to be an indicator of interannual SWC variability with r of 0.49 (p<0.001) for the overall dataset. However, interannual variability in summer SWC was also significantly correlated with the five precipitation frequencies and the sub-daily precipitation frequencies seemed to explain more interannual SWC variability than the total of precipitation. Spatially, all these precipitation frequencies were better indicators of summer SWC than precipitation totals, whereas these better performances were only observed in non-forest ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that precipitation frequency may play an important role in regulating both interannual and spatial variations of summer SWC, which has probably been overlooked or underestimated. However, the spatial interpretation should carefully consider other factors, such as the plant functional types and soil characteristics of diverse ecoregions.

Protein from forest wildlife is crucial to rural food security and livelihoods across the tropics. The harvest of animals such as tapir, duikers, deer, pigs, peccaries, primates and larger rodents, birds and reptiles provides benefits to local people worth millions of US$ annually and represents around 6 million tonnes of animals extracted yearly. Vulnerability to hunting varies, with some species sustaining populations in heavily hunted secondary habitats, while others require intact forests with minimal harvesting to maintain healthy populations. Some species or groups have been characterized as ecosystem engineers and ecological keystone species. They affect plant distribution and structure ecosystems, through seed dispersal and predation, grazing, browsing, rooting and other mechanisms. Global attention has been drawn to their loss through debates regarding bushmeat, the "empty forest" syndrome and their ecological importance. However, information on the harvest remains fragmentary, along with understanding of ecological, socioeconomic and cultural dimensions. Here we assess the consequences, both for ecosystems and local livelihoods, of the loss of these species in the Amazon and Congo basins.

Underplating was originally proposed as the process of magma ponding at the base of the crust and was inferred from petrologic considerations. This process not only may add high density material to the deep crust, but also may contribute low density material to the upper parts of the crust by magma fractionation during cooling and solidification in the lower crust. Separation of the low density material from the high-density residue may be a main process of formation of continental crust with its characteristic low average density, also during the early evolution of the Earth. Despite the assumed importance of underplating processes and associated fractionation, the available geophysical images of underplated material remain relatively sparse and confined to specific tectonic environments. Direct ponding of magma at the Moho is only observed in very few locations, probably because magma usually interacts with the surrounding crustal rocks which leads to smearing of geophysical signals from the underplated material. In terms of processes, there is no direct discriminator between the traditional concept of underplated material and lower crustal magmatic intrusions in the form of batholiths and sill-like features, and in the current review we consider both these phenomena as underplating. In this broad sense, underplating is observed in a variety of tectonic settings, including island arcs, wide extensional continental areas, rift zones, continental margins and palaeo-suture zones in Precambrian crust. We review the structural styles of magma underplating as observed by seismic imaging and discuss these first order observations in relation to the Moho.

Global products of vegetation green Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) are being operationally produced from Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS) at 1-km resolution and eight-day frequency. This paper summarizes the experience of several collaborating investigators on validation of MODIS LAI products and demonstrates the close connection between product validation and algorithm refinement activities. The validation of moderate resolution LAI products includes three steps: 1) field sampling representative of LAI spatial distribution and dynamic range within each major land cover type at the validation site; 2) development of a transfer function between field LAI measurements and high resolution satellite data to generate a reference LAI map over an extended area; and 3) comparison of MODIS LAI with aggregated reference LAI map at patch (multipixel) scale in view of geo-location and pixel shift uncertainties. The MODIS LAI validation experiences, summarized here, suggest three key factors that influence the accuracy of LAI retrievals: 1) uncertainties in input land cover data, 2) uncertainties in input surface reflectances, and 3) uncertainties from the model used to build the look-up tables accompanying the algorithm. This strategy of validation efforts guiding algorithm refinements has led to progressively more accurate LAI products from the MODIS sensors aboard NASA's Terra and Aqua platforms

Future increases in land-based production will need to focus more on sustainably intensifying existing production systems. Unfortunately, our understanding of the global patterns of land use intensity is weak, partly because land use intensity is a complex, multidimensional term, and partly because we lack appropriate datasets to assess land use intensity across broad geographic extents. Here, we review the state of the art regarding approaches for mapping land use intensity and provide a comprehensive overview of available global-scale datasets on land use intensity. We also outline major challenges and opportunities for mapping land use intensity for cropland, grazing, and forestry systems, and identify key issues for future research.

Abstract DNA molecules originating from animals and plants can be retrieved directly from sediments and have been used for reconstructing both contemporary and past ecosystems. However, the extent to which such ‘dirt’ DNA reflects taxonomic richness and structural diversity remains contentious. Here, we couple second generation high‐throughput sequencing with 16S mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) meta‐barcoding, to explore the accuracy and sensitivity of ‘dirt’ DNA as an indicator of vertebrate diversity, from soil sampled at safari parks, zoological gardens and farms with known species compositions. PCR amplification was successful in the full pH range of the investigated soils (6.2 ± 0.2 to 8.3 ± 0.2), but inhibition was detected in extracts from soil of high organic content. DNA movement (leaching) through strata was evident in some sporadic cases and is influenced by soil texture and structure. We find that DNA from the soil surface reflects overall taxonomic richness and relative biomass of individual species. However, one species that was recently introduced was not detected. Furthermore, animal behaviour was shown to influence DNA deposition rates. The approach potentially provides a quick methodological alternative to classical ecological surveys of biodiversity, and most reliable results are obtained with spatial sample replicates, while relative amounts of soil processed per site is of less importance.

Abstract This paper provides a snapshot of the permafrost thermal state in the Nordic area obtained during the International Polar Year (IPY) 2007–2009. Several intensive research campaigns were undertaken within a variety of projects in the Nordic countries to obtain this snapshot. We demonstrate for Scandinavia that both lowland permafrost in palsas and peat plateaus, and large areas of permafrost in the mountains are at temperatures close to 0°C, which makes them sensitive to climatic changes. In Svalbard and northeast Greenland, and also in the highest parts of the mountains in the rest of the Nordic area, the permafrost is somewhat colder, but still only a few degrees below the freezing point. The observations presented from the network of boreholes, more than half of which were established during the IPY, provide an important baseline to assess how future predicted climatic changes may affect the permafrost thermal state in the Nordic area. Time series of active‐layer thickness and permafrost temperature conditions in the Nordic area, which are generally only 10 years in length, show generally increasing active‐layer depths and rising permafrost temperatures. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

BackgroundModelling studies have been widely used to inform human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination policy decisions; however, many models exist and it is not known whether they produce consistent predictions of population-level effectiveness and herd effects. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of model predictions of the long-term population-level effectiveness of vaccination against HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 infection in women and men, to examine the variability in predicted herd effects, incremental benefit of vaccinating boys, and potential for HPV-vaccine-type elimination.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE and Embase for transmission-dynamic modelling studies published between Jan 1, 2009, and April 28, 2015, that predicted the population-level impact of vaccination on HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infections in high-income countries. We contacted authors to determine whether they were willing to produce new predictions for standardised scenarios. Strategies investigated were girls-only vaccination and girls and boys vaccination at age 12 years. Base-case vaccine characteristics were 100% efficacy and lifetime protection. We did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy, and duration of protection. For all scenarios we pooled model predictions of relative reductions in HPV prevalence (RRprev) over time after vaccination and summarised results using the median and 10th and 90th percentiles (80% uncertainty intervals [UI]).Findings16 of 19 eligible models from ten high-income countries provided predictions. Under base-case assumptions, 40% vaccination coverage and girls-only vaccination, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·53 (80% UI 0·46–0·68) and 0·36 (0·28–0·61), respectively, after 70 years. With 80% girls-only vaccination coverage, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·93 (0·90–1·00) and 0·83 (0·75–1·00), respectively. Vaccinating boys in addition to girls increased the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men by 0·18 (0·13–0·32) and 0·35 (0·27–0·39) for 40% coverage, and 0·07 (0·00–0·10) and 0·16 (0·01–0·25) for 80% coverage, respectively. The RRprev were greater for HPV 6, 11, and 18 than for HPV 16 for all scenarios investigated. Finally at 80% coverage, most models predicted that girls and boys vaccination would eliminate HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18, with a median RRprev of 1·00 for women and men for all four HPV types. Variability in pooled findings was low, but increased with lower vaccination coverage and shorter vaccine protection (from lifetime to 20 years).InterpretationAlthough HPV models differ in structure, data used for calibration, and settings, our population-level predictions were generally concordant and suggest that strong herd effects are expected from vaccinating girls only, even with coverage as low as 20%. Elimination of HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 is possible if 80% coverage in girls and boys is reached and if high vaccine efficacy is maintained over time.FundingCanadian Institutes of Health Research.

Large knowledge gaps currently exist that limit our ability to understand and characterise dynamics and patterns of land-use intensity: in particular, a comprehensive conceptual framework and a system of measurement are lacking. This situation hampers the development of a sound understanding of the mechanisms, determinants, and constraints underlying changes in land-use intensity. On the basis of a review of approaches for studying land-use intensity, we propose a conceptual framework to quantify and analyse land-use intensity. This framework integrates three dimensions: (a) input intensity, (b) output intensity, and (c) the associated system-level impacts of land-based production (e.g. changes in carbon storage or biodiversity). The systematic development of indicators across these dimensions would provide opportunities for the systematic analyses of the trade-offs, synergies and opportunity costs of land-use intensification strategies.

Tectonic changes that produced a deep Tasmanian Gateway between Australia and Antarctica are widely invoked as the major mechanism for Antarctic cryosphere growth and Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) development during the Eocene/Oligocene (E/O) transition (∼34–33 Ma). Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 189 recovered near‐continuous marine sedimentary records across the E/O transition interval at four sites around Tasmania. These records are largely barren of calcareous microfossils but contain a rich record of siliceous‐ and organic‐walled marine microfossils. In this study we integrate micropaleontological, sedimentological, geochemical, and paleomagnetic data from Site 1172 (East Tasman Plateau) to identify four distinct phases (A–D) in the E/O Tasmanian Gateway deepening that are correlative among ODP Leg 189 sites. Phase A, prior to ∼35.5 Ma: minor initial deepening characterized by a shallow marine prodeltaic setting with initial condensation episodes. Phase B, ∼35.5–33.5 Ma: increased deepening marked by the onset of major glauconitic deposition and inception of energetic bottom‐water currents. Phase C, ∼33.5–30.2 Ma: further deepening to bathyal depths, with episodic erosion by increasingly energetic bottom‐water currents. Phase D, <30.2 Ma: establishment of stable, open‐ocean, warm‐temperate, oligotrophic settings characterized by siliceous‐carbonate ooze deposition. Our combined evidence indicates that this early Oligocene Tasmanian Gateway deepening initially produced an eastward flow of relatively warm surface waters from the Australo‐Antarctic Gulf into the southwestern Pacific Ocean. This “proto‐Leeuwin” current fundamentally differs from previous regional reconstructions of eastward flowing cool water (e.g., a “proto‐ACC”) during the early Oligocene and thereby represents an important new constraint for reconstructing regional‐ to global‐scale dynamics for this major global change event.