Health Research Board

OBJECTIVE: To review and appraise the validity and usefulness of published and preprint reports of prediction models for diagnosing coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in patients with suspected infection, for prognosis of patients with covid-19, and for detecting people in the general population at increased risk of covid-19 infection or being admitted to hospital with the disease. DESIGN: Living systematic review and critical appraisal by the COVID-PRECISE (Precise Risk Estimation to optimise covid-19 Care for Infected or Suspected patients in diverse sEttings) group. DATA SOURCES: PubMed and Embase through Ovid, up to 1 July 2020, supplemented with arXiv, medRxiv, and bioRxiv up to 5 May 2020. STUDY SELECTION: Studies that developed or validated a multivariable covid-19 related prediction model. DATA EXTRACTION: At least two authors independently extracted data using the CHARMS (critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies) checklist; risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST (prediction model risk of bias assessment tool). RESULTS: 37 421 titles were screened, and 169 studies describing 232 prediction models were included. The review identified seven models for identifying people at risk in the general population; 118 diagnostic models for detecting covid-19 (75 were based on medical imaging, 10 to diagnose disease severity); and 107 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk, progression to severe disease, intensive care unit admission, ventilation, intubation, or length of hospital stay. The most frequent types of predictors included in the covid-19 prediction models are vital signs, age, comorbidities, and image features. Flu-like symptoms are frequently predictive in diagnostic models, while sex, C reactive protein, and lymphocyte counts are frequent prognostic factors. Reported C index estimates from the strongest form of validation available per model ranged from 0.71 to 0.99 in prediction models for the general population, from 0.65 to more than 0.99 in diagnostic models, and from 0.54 to 0.99 in prognostic models. All models were rated at high or unclear risk of bias, mostly because of non-representative selection of control patients, exclusion of patients who had not experienced the event of interest by the end of the study, high risk of model overfitting, and unclear reporting. Many models did not include a description of the target population (n=27, 12%) or care setting (n=75, 32%), and only 11 (5%) were externally validated by a calibration plot. The Jehi diagnostic model and the 4C mortality score were identified as promising models. CONCLUSION: Prediction models for covid-19 are quickly entering the academic literature to support medical decision making at a time when they are urgently needed. This review indicates that almost all pubished prediction models are poorly reported, and at high risk of bias such that their reported predictive performance is probably optimistic. However, we have identified two (one diagnostic and one prognostic) promising models that should soon be validated in multiple cohorts, preferably through collaborative efforts and data sharing to also allow an investigation of the stability and heterogeneity in their performance across populations and settings. Details on all reviewed models are publicly available at https://www.covprecise.org/. Methodological guidance as provided in this paper should be followed because unreliable predictions could cause more harm than benefit in guiding clinical decisions. Finally, prediction model authors should adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guideline. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: Protocol https://osf.io/ehc47/, registration https://osf.io/wy245. READERS' NOTE: This article is a living systematic review that will be updated to reflect emerging evidence. Updates may occur for up to two years from the date of original publication. This version is update 3 of the original article published on 7 April 2020 (BMJ 2020;369:m1328). Previous updates can be found as data supplements (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1328/related#datasupp). When citing this paper please consider adding the update number and date of access for clarity.

AIM: This paper discusses the literature on establishing rigour in research studies. It describes the methodological trinity of reliability, validity and generalization and explores some of the issues relating to establishing rigour in naturalistic inquiry. BACKGROUND: Those working within the naturalistic paradigm have questioned the issue of using validity, reliability and generalizability to demonstrate robustness of qualitative research. Triangulation has been used to demonstrate confirmability and completeness and has been one means of ensuring acceptability across paradigms. Emerging criteria such as goodness and trustworthiness can be used to evaluate the robustness of naturalistic inquiry. DISCUSSION: It is argued that the transference of terms across paradigms is inappropriate; however, if we reject the concepts of validity and reliability, we reject the concept of rigour. Rejection of rigour undermines acceptance of qualitative research as a systematic process that can contribute to the advancement of knowledge. Emerging criteria for demonstrating robustness in qualitative inquiry, such as authenticity, trustworthiness and goodness, need to be considered. Goodness, when not seen as a separate construct but as an integral and embedded component of the research process, should be useful in assuring quality of the entire study. Triangulation is a tried and tested means of offering completeness, particularly in mixed-method research. When multiple types of triangulation are used appropriately as the 'triangulation state of mind', they approach the concept of crystallization, which allows for infinite variety of angles of approach. CONCLUSION: Qualitative researchers need to be explicit about how and why they choose specific legitimizing criteria in ensuring the robustness of their inquiries. A shift from a position of fundamentalism to a more pluralistic approach as a means of legitimizing naturalistic inquiry is advocated.

BACKGROUND: Poorly defined cohorts and weak study designs have hampered cross-cultural comparisons of course and outcome in schizophrenia. AIMS: To describe long-term outcome in 18 diverse treated incidence and prevalence cohorts. To compare mortality, 15- and 25-year illness trajectory and the predictive strength of selected baseline and short-term course variables. METHODS: Historic prospective study. Standardised assessments of course and outcome. RESULTS: About 75% traced. About 50% of surviving cases had favourable outcomes, but there was marked heterogeneity across geographic centres. In regression models, early (2-year) course patterns were the strongest predictor of 15-year outcome, but recovery varied by location; 16% of early unremitting cases achieved late-phase recovery. CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of treated incident cases of schizophrenia achieve favourable long-term outcome. Sociocultural conditions appear to modify long-term course. Early intervention programmes focused on social as well as pharmacological treatments may realise longer-term gains.

BACKGROUND: Embolic strokes of undetermined source represent 20% of ischemic strokes and are associated with a high rate of recurrence. Anticoagulant treatment with rivaroxaban, an oral factor Xa inhibitor, may result in a lower risk of recurrent stroke than aspirin. METHODS: We compared the efficacy and safety of rivaroxaban (at a daily dose of 15 mg) with aspirin (at a daily dose of 100 mg) for the prevention of recurrent stroke in patients with recent ischemic stroke that was presumed to be from cerebral embolism but without arterial stenosis, lacune, or an identified cardioembolic source. The primary efficacy outcome was the first recurrence of ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke or systemic embolism in a time-to-event analysis; the primary safety outcome was the rate of major bleeding. RESULTS: A total of 7213 participants were enrolled at 459 sites; 3609 patients were randomly assigned to receive rivaroxaban and 3604 to receive aspirin. Patients had been followed for a median of 11 months when the trial was terminated early because of a lack of benefit with regard to stroke risk and because of bleeding associated with rivaroxaban. The primary efficacy outcome occurred in 172 patients in the rivaroxaban group (annualized rate, 5.1%) and in 160 in the aspirin group (annualized rate, 4.8%) (hazard ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.87 to 1.33; P=0.52). Recurrent ischemic stroke occurred in 158 patients in the rivaroxaban group (annualized rate, 4.7%) and in 156 in the aspirin group (annualized rate, 4.7%). Major bleeding occurred in 62 patients in the rivaroxaban group (annualized rate, 1.8%) and in 23 in the aspirin group (annualized rate, 0.7%) (hazard ratio, 2.72; 95% CI, 1.68 to 4.39; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Rivaroxaban was not superior to aspirin with regard to the prevention of recurrent stroke after an initial embolic stroke of undetermined source and was associated with a higher risk of bleeding. (Funded by Bayer and Janssen Research and Development; NAVIGATE ESUS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02313909 .).

BACKGROUND: The optimal range of sodium intake for cardiovascular health is controversial. METHODS: We obtained morning fasting urine samples from 101,945 persons in 17 countries and estimated 24-hour sodium and potassium excretion (used as a surrogate for intake). We examined the association between estimated urinary sodium and potassium excretion and the composite outcome of death and major cardiovascular events. RESULTS: The mean estimated sodium and potassium excretion was 4.93 g per day and 2.12 g per day, respectively. With a mean follow-up of 3.7 years, the composite outcome occurred in 3317 participants (3.3%). As compared with an estimated sodium excretion of 4.00 to 5.99 g per day (reference range), a higher estimated sodium excretion (≥ 7.00 g per day) was associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02 to 1.30), as well as increased risks of death and major cardiovascular events considered separately. The association between a high estimated sodium excretion and the composite outcome was strongest among participants with hypertension (P=0.02 for interaction), with an increased risk at an estimated sodium excretion of 6.00 g or more per day. As compared with the reference range, an estimated sodium excretion that was below 3.00 g per day was also associated with an increased risk of the composite outcome (odds ratio, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.44). As compared with an estimated potassium excretion that was less than 1.50 g per day, higher potassium excretion was associated with a reduced risk of the composite outcome. CONCLUSIONS: In this study in which sodium intake was estimated on the basis of measured urinary excretion, an estimated sodium intake between 3 g per day and 6 g per day was associated with a lower risk of death and cardiovascular events than was either a higher or lower estimated level of intake. As compared with an estimated potassium excretion that was less than 1.50 g per day, higher potassium excretion was associated with a lower risk of death and cardiovascular events. (Funded by the Population Health Research Institute and others.).

BACKGROUND: Higher levels of sodium intake are reported to be associated with higher blood pressure. Whether this relationship varies according to levels of sodium or potassium intake and in different populations is unknown. METHODS: We studied 102,216 adults from 18 countries. Estimates of 24-hour sodium and potassium excretion were made from a single fasting morning urine specimen and were used as surrogates for intake. We assessed the relationship between electrolyte excretion and blood pressure, as measured with an automated device. RESULTS: Regression analyses showed increments of 2.11 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure and 0.78 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure for each 1-g increment in estimated sodium excretion. The slope of this association was steeper with higher sodium intake (an increment of 2.58 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure per gram for sodium excretion >5 g per day, 1.74 mm Hg per gram for 3 to 5 g per day, and 0.74 mm Hg per gram for <3 g per day; P<0.001 for interaction). The slope of association was steeper for persons with hypertension (2.49 mm Hg per gram) than for those without hypertension (1.30 mm Hg per gram, P<0.001 for interaction) and was steeper with increased age (2.97 mm Hg per gram at >55 years of age, 2.43 mm Hg per gram at 45 to 55 years of age, and 1.96 mm Hg per gram at <45 years of age; P<0.001 for interaction). Potassium excretion was inversely associated with systolic blood pressure, with a steeper slope of association for persons with hypertension than for those without it (P<0.001) and a steeper slope with increased age (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the association of estimated intake of sodium and potassium, as determined from measurements of excretion of these cations, with blood pressure was nonlinear and was most pronounced in persons consuming high-sodium diets, persons with hypertension, and older persons. (Funded by the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario and others.).

Abstract Background There is a need to better define the epidemiology of sepsis in intensive care units (ICUs) around the globe. Methods The Intensive Care over Nations (ICON) audit prospectively collected data on all adult (&amp;gt;16 years) patients admitted to the ICU between May 8 and May 18, 2012, except those admitted for less than 24 hours for routine postoperative surveillance. Data were collected daily for a maximum of 28 days in the ICU, and patients were followed up for outcome data until death, hospital discharge, or for 60 days. Participation was entirely voluntary. Results The audit included 10069 patients from Europe (54.1%), Asia (19.2%), America (17.1%), and other continents (9.6%). Sepsis, defined as infection with associated organ failure, was identified during the ICU stay in 2973 (29.5%) patients, including in 1808 (18.0%) already at ICU admission. Occurrence rates of sepsis varied from 13.6% to 39.3% in the different regions. Overall ICU and hospital mortality rates were 25.8% and 35.3%, respectively, in patients with sepsis, but it varied from 11.9% and 19.3% (Oceania) to 39.5% and 47.2% (Africa), respectively. After adjustment for possible confounders in a multilevel analysis, independent risk factors for in-hospital death included older age, higher simplified acute physiology II score, comorbid cancer, chronic heart failure (New York Heart Association Classification III/IV), cirrhosis, use of mechanical ventilation or renal replacement therapy, and infection with Acinetobacter spp. Conclusions Sepsis remains a major health problem in ICU patients worldwide and is associated with high mortality rates. However, there is wide variability in the sepsis rate and outcomes in ICU patients around the globe.

Blood was taken at the first antenatal clinic from 56,049 pregnant women. Neural tube defect (NTD) pregnancies (81) were compared to controls (247) for plasma vitamin B12 (B12) (ng/l), plasma folate (microgram/l), and red cell folate (RCF) (microgram/l). Median values were significantly different and were, respectively, 243 and 296 (p = 0.001); 3.47 and 4.59 (p = 0.002); and 269 and 338 (p < 0.001). There was a significant correlation between plasma B12 and RCF in cases (r = 0.31, p = 0.004) but not in controls (r = 0.02, p = 0.725). In cases only, multiple regression showed that both plasma B12 and plasma folate influenced the maternal RCF (multiple r = 0.68, p < 0.001). Plasma folate and plasma B12 were independent risk factors for NTDs, suggesting that the enzyme methionine synthase is involved directly or indirectly in the aetiology. The levels of folate and B12 where increased risk occurred were not those usually associated with deficiency, calling for a re-evaluation of their recommended daily allowances. Whether the aetiology is purely nutritional or a metabolic defect, this study suggests that consideration should be given to including B12 as well as folic acid in any programme of supplementation or food fortification to prevent NTDs.

BACKGROUND: The use of levothyroxine to treat subclinical hypothyroidism is controversial. We aimed to determine whether levothyroxine provided clinical benefits in older persons with this condition. METHODS: We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, parallel-group trial involving 737 adults who were at least 65 years of age and who had persisting subclinical hypothyroidism (thyrotropin level, 4.60 to 19.99 mIU per liter; free thyroxine level within the reference range). A total of 368 patients were assigned to receive levothyroxine (at a starting dose of 50 μg daily, or 25 μg if the body weight was <50 kg or the patient had coronary heart disease), with dose adjustment according to the thyrotropin level; 369 patients were assigned to receive placebo with mock dose adjustment. The two primary outcomes were the change in the Hypothyroid Symptoms score and Tiredness score on a thyroid-related quality-of-life questionnaire at 1 year (range of each scale is 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating more symptoms or tiredness, respectively; minimum clinically important difference, 9 points). RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 74.4 years, and 396 patients (53.7%) were women. The mean (±SD) thyrotropin level was 6.40±2.01 mIU per liter at baseline; at 1 year, this level had decreased to 5.48 mIU per liter in the placebo group, as compared with 3.63 mIU per liter in the levothyroxine group (P<0.001), at a median dose of 50 μg. We found no differences in the mean change at 1 year in the Hypothyroid Symptoms score (0.2±15.3 in the placebo group and 0.2±14.4 in the levothyroxine group; between-group difference, 0.0; 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.0 to 2.1) or the Tiredness score (3.2±17.7 and 3.8±18.4, respectively; between-group difference, 0.4; 95% CI, -2.1 to 2.9). No beneficial effects of levothyroxine were seen on secondary-outcome measures. There was no significant excess of serious adverse events prespecified as being of special interest. CONCLUSIONS: Levothyroxine provided no apparent benefits in older persons with subclinical hypothyroidism. (Funded by European Union FP7 and others; TRUST ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01660126 .).

The FAIR principles have been widely cited, endorsed and adopted by a broad range of stakeholders since their publication in 2016. By intention, the 15 FAIR guiding principles do not dictate specific technological implementations, but provide guidance for improving Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability and Reusability of digital resources. This has likely contributed to the broad adoption of the FAIR principles, because individual stakeholder communities can implement their own FAIR solutions. However, it has also resulted in inconsistent interpretations that carry the risk of leading to incompatible implementations. Thus, while the FAIR principles are formulated on a high level and may be interpreted and implemented in different ways, for true interoperability we need to support convergence in implementation choices that are widely accessible and (re)-usable. We introduce the concept of FAIR implementation considerations to assist accelerated global participation and convergence towards accessible, robust, widespread and consistent FAIR implementations. Any self-identified stakeholder community may either choose to reuse solutions from existing implementations, or when they spot a gap, accept the challenge to create the needed solution, which, ideally, can be used again by other communities in the future. Here, we provide interpretations and implementation considerations (choices and challenges) for each FAIR principle.

For calculation of terminal velocities it is convenient to express the Reynolds' number, Re , of a moving sphere as a function of the dimensionless group ψ Re 2 , where ψ is the drag coefficient. The following equations have been fitted by the method of least squares to critically selected data from a number of experimenters: Re = ψ Re 2 /24 -0.00023363(ψ Re 2 ) 2 + 0.0000020154(ψ Re 2 ) 3 - 0.0000000069105(ψ Re 2 ) 4 for Re &lt;4 or ψ Re 2 &lt;140. This tends to Stokes' law for low values of Re. It is specially suited to calculation of the sedimentation of air-borne particles. The upper limit corresponds to a sphere weighing 1.5 μg. falling in the normal atmosphere, that is, one having a diameter of 142 μ for unit density. log Re =-1.29536+0.986 (logψ Re 2 )-0.046677 (logψ Re 2 ) 2 +0.0011235 (logψ Re 2 ) 3 for 3&lt; Re &lt;10,000 or 100&lt;ψ Re 2 &lt;4.5.10 7 . Correction for slip in gases should be applied to Stokes' law by the following expression, based on the best results available: 1 + l / a [1.257 + 0.400exp(-1.10 a / l )], where the mean free path l is given by η/0.499σc. This conveniently transforms to the following for the sedimentation of particles in air at pressure p cm. mercury 1 + l / pa [6.32.10 -4 + 2.01.10 -4 exp(-2190 ap )]

BACKGROUND: After a transient ischemic attack (TIA) or minor stroke, the long-term risk of stroke and other vascular events is not well known. In this follow-up to a report on 1-year outcomes from a registry of TIA clinics in 21 countries that enrolled 4789 patients with a TIA or minor ischemic stroke from 2009 through 2011, we examined the 5-year risk of stroke and vascular events. METHODS: We evaluated patients who had had a TIA or minor stroke within 7 days before enrollment in the registry. Among 61 sites that participated in the 1-year outcome study, we selected 42 sites that had follow-up data on more than 50% of their enrolled patients at 5 years. The primary outcome was a composite of stroke, acute coronary syndrome, or death from cardiovascular causes (whichever occurred first), with an emphasis on events that occurred in the second through fifth years. In calculating the cumulative incidence of the primary outcome and secondary outcomes (except death from any cause), we treated death as a competing risk. RESULTS: score for the risk of stroke (range, 0 to 7, with higher scores indicating greater risk) of 4 or more were each associated with an increased risk of subsequent stroke. CONCLUSIONS: In a follow-up to a 1-year study involving patients who had a TIA or minor stroke, the rate of cardiovascular events including stroke in a selected cohort was 6.4% in the first year and 6.4% in the second through fifth years. (Funded by AstraZeneca and others.).

Sex differences in schizophrenia are well known, but their genetic basis has not been identified. We performed a genome-wide association scan for schizophrenia in an Ashkenazi Jewish population using DNA pooling. We found a female-specific association with rs7341475, a SNP in the fourth intron of the reelin (RELN) gene (p = 2.9 x 10(-5) in women), with a significant gene-sex effect (p = 1.8 x 10(-4)). We studied rs7341475 in four additional populations, totaling 2,274 cases and 4,401 controls. A significant effect was observed only in women, replicating the initial result (p = 2.1 x 10(-3) in women; p = 4.2 x 10(-3) for gene-sex interaction). Based on all populations the estimated relative risk of women carrying the common genotype is 1.58 (p = 8.8 x 10(-7); p = 1.6 x 10(-5) for gene-sex interaction). The female-specific association between RELN and schizophrenia is one of the few examples of a replicated sex-specific genetic association in any disease.

It is now well-established that folic acid, taken peri-conceptionally, can reduce the risk of neural tube defects (NTDs). Recent work has demonstrated that an abnormality of homocysteine metabolism is a critical factor. The gene for 5,10 methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase, an enzyme important in homocysteine metabolism, was studied in relation to NTDs. To determine the frequency of the allele for the thermolabile form of the reductase, DNA samples were collected from people with NTDs, parents of people with NTDs, and normal controls. Of 82 people with NTDs, 15 (18.3%) were homozygous for the abnormal, thermolabile allele. This was significantly higher (p = 0.01) than the rate of 6.1% in the control population (odds ratio 3.47, 95% CI 1.28-9.41). This is the first specific genetic abnormality to be identified in NTDs. It explains the association between some NTDs and elevated homocysteine, given that the reductase is important in homocysteine metabolism. It also explains how folic acid supplementation prevents some NTDs, by overcoming a partial block in the conversion of 5,10 methylenetetrahydrofolate to 5 methyltetrahydrofolate. Genetic screening could identify women who will require folic acid supplements to reduce their risk of having a child with an NTD.

Abstract Background This systematic review of prospective longitudinal primary studies sought to determine whether electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use by teenagers who had never smoked conventional tobacco cigarettes (tobacco cigarettes) at baseline was associated with subsequently commencing tobacco cigarette smoking. Methods The review followed the principles of a systematic review and meta-analysis. A key word search identified peer-reviewed articles published between 1 January 2005 and 2 October 2019 from seven bibliographic databases and one search engine. Using pre-prepared inclusion/exclusion criteria two researchers independently screened abstracts, and subsequently, full text papers. Selected articles were quality assessed in duplicate. Data on study participants characteristics, exposure and outcome measures were recorded in an adapted Cochrane Data Extraction Form. Feasibility assessment was done to detect clinical heterogeneity and choose an approach to meta-analysis. Analysis comprised pairwise random effects meta-analyses, and sensitivity and subgroup analyses. Results From the 6619 studies identified, 14 one-off primary studies in 21 articles were suitable for inclusion. The participants ages ranged from 13 to 19 years and comprised teenagers based in Europe and North America. Nine of the 14 one-off studies, with follow-up periods between 4 and 24 months, met the criteria for inclusion in a meta-analysis of the association between ever use of e-cigarettes and subsequent initiation of tobacco cigarette use. Based on primary study adjusted odds ratios, our meta-analysis calculated a 4.06 (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.00–5.48, I 2 68%, 9 primary studies) times higher odds of commencing tobacco cigarette smoking for teenagers who had ever used e-cigarettes at baseline, though the odds ratio were marginally lower (to 3.71 times odds, 95%CI: 2.83–4. 86, I 2 35%, 4 primary studies) when only the four high-quality studies were analysed. Conclusion The systematic review found that e-cigarette use was associated with commencement of tobacco cigarette smoking among teenagers in Europe and North America, identifying an important health-related harm. Given the availability and usage of e-cigarettes, this study provides added support for urgent response by policymakers to stop their use by teenagers to decrease direct harms in this susceptible population group, as well as to conserve achievements in diminishing tobacco cigarette initiation.

BACKGROUND: Physical inactivity is a major, potentially modifiable, risk factor for cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other chronic diseases. Effective, simple, and generalisable interventions that will increase physical activity in populations are needed. AIM: To evaluate the effectiveness of a smartphone application (app) to increase physical activity in primary care. DESIGN AND SETTING: An 8-week, open-label, randomised controlled trial in rural, primary care in the west of Ireland. METHOD: Android smartphone users >16 years of age were recruited. All participants were provided with similar physical activity goals and information on the benefits of exercise. The intervention group was provided with a smartphone app and detailed instructions on how to use it to achieve these goals. The primary outcome was change in physical activity, as measured by a daily step count between baseline and follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 139 patients were referred by their primary care health professional or self-referred. In total, 37 (27%) were screened out and 12 (9%) declined to participate, leaving 90 (65%) patients who were randomised. Of these, 78 provided baseline data (intervention = 37; control = 41) and 77 provided outcome data (intervention = 37; control = 40). The mean daily step count at baseline for intervention and control groups was 4365 and 5138 steps per day respectively. After adjusting, there was evidence of a significant treatment effect (P = 0.009); the difference in mean improvement in daily step count from week 1 to week 8 inclusive was 1029 (95% confidence interval 214 to 1843) steps per day, favouring the intervention. Improvements in physical activity in the intervention group were sustained until the end of the trial. CONCLUSION: A simple smartphone app significantly increased physical activity over 8 weeks in a primary care population.

Realist evaluations are increasingly used in the study of complex health interventions. The methodological procedures applied within realist evaluations however are often inexplicit, prompting scholars to call for increased transparency and more detailed description within realist studies. This publication details the data analysis and synthesis process used within two realist evaluation studies of community health interventions taking place across Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya. Using data from several case studies across all three countries and the data analysis software NVivo, we describe in detail how data were analyzed and subsequently synthesized to refine middle-range theories. We conclude by discussing the strengths and weaknesses of the approach taken, providing novel methodological recommendations. The aim of providing this detailed descriptive account of the analysis and synthesis in these two studies is to promote transparency and contribute to the advancement of realist evaluation methodologies.

OBJECTIVE: Folic acid fortification has reduced neural tube defect prevalence by 50% to 70%. It is unlikely that fortification levels will be increased to reduce neural tube defect prevalence further. Therefore, it is important to identify other modifiable risk factors. Vitamin B(12) is metabolically related to folate; moreover, previous studies have found low B(12) status in mothers of children affected by neural tube defect. Our objective was to quantify the effect of low B(12) status on neural tube defect risk in a high-prevalence, unfortified population. METHODS: We assessed pregnancy vitamin B(12) status concentrations in blood samples taken at an average of 15 weeks' gestation from 3 independent nested case-control groups of Irish women within population-based cohorts, at a time when vitamin supplementation or food fortification was rare. Group 1 blood samples were from 95 women during a neural tube defect-affected pregnancy and 265 control subjects. Group 2 included blood samples from 107 women who had a previous neural tube defect birth but whose current pregnancy was not affected and 414 control subjects. Group 3 samples were from 76 women during an affected pregnancy and 222 control subjects. RESULTS: Mothers of children affected by neural tube defect had significantly lower B(12) status. In all 3 groups those in the lowest B(12) quartiles, compared with the highest, had between two and threefold higher adjusted odds ratios for being the mother of a child affected by neural tube defect. Pregnancy blood B(12) concentrations of <250 ng/L were associated with the highest risks. CONCLUSIONS: Deficient or inadequate maternal vitamin B(12) status is associated with a significantly increased risk for neural tube defects. We suggest that women have vitamin B(12) levels of >300 ng/L (221 pmol/L) before becoming pregnant. Improving B(12) status beyond this level may afford a further reduction in risk, but this is uncertain.

BACKGROUND: Timely recognition and diagnosis of dementia is the pre-condition for improving dementia care, but diagnosis often occurs late in the disease process. OBJECTIVE: To compare facilitators and obstacles to the timely recognition of dementia across eight European Union states, in order to implement established policies for earlier diagnosis. METHODS: A modified focus group technique, including a pre and posterior procedure. RESULTS: Twenty-three participants from different disciplines, purposively sampled for professional expertise in dementia research and innovative practice, attended two focus groups. Stigma in ageing and dementia, accompanied by a sense that there is little to offer until later on in the disease, underpinned the widespread reluctance of GPs to recognise dementia at an early stage and were major obstacles to the timely diagnosis of dementia across all eight countries. Dementia care services varied widely across Europe. Countries with the greatest development of dementia health care services were characterised by national guidelines, GPs fulfilling a gatekeeper function, multi-disciplinary memory clinics and innovative programmes that stimulated practice and new services. Dementia-related stigma was perceived as being less prominent in these countries. CONCLUSIONS: Overcome of delays in the timely diagnosis of dementia needs more than specialist services. They should address the processes associated with stigma, age and dementia, especially where these relate to physician practice and diagnostic disclosure. Stigma is perceived as variable across European States, with a promising finding that its impact is relatively small in countries with the widest range of dementia care services.

In a national prevalence study of multiple sclerosis (M.S.) in the Republic of South Africa based on census day 1960 there were 118 individuals with M.S. who were born in Northern Europe (United Kingdom and other parts of North and Central Europe) and who had emigrated to the Republic by 1960. Their prevalence rate was 49 per 100,000 immigrants in comparison with a prevalence of 11 per 100,000 among native-born English-speaking white South Africans.To study the possible effect of age at immigration it was necessary to relate the M.S. immigrants to the appropriate denominator-the population at risk according to age at immigration. The population at risk by age at immigration has been estimated by two methods in an indirect fashion with the assistance of the Bureau of Census (1960) and by surveys of the population at risk 1968-9. Both studies suggest that the risk of developing M.S. was reduced to less than a third of the expected risk among those who immigrated under the age of 15 or 16.This study is further evidence that M.S. is an acquired exogenous disease, the precise nature of which is still not certain but, according to present knowledge, has as its leading contender the class of slow, latent, or temperate viruses.