Illinois Indiana Sea Grant

We are living in an era in which data is generated in huge volume with high velocity and variety. Big Data and technology are reshaping our life and business. Our research inevitably needs to catch up with these changes. In this short essay, we focus on two aspects of supply chain management, namely, demand management and manufacturing. We feel that, while rapidly growing research on these two areas is contributed by scholars in computer science and engineering, the developments made by production and operations management society have been insufficient. We believe that our field has the expertise and talent to push for advancements in the theory and practice of demand management and manufacturing (of course, among many other areas) along unique dimensions. We summarize some relevant concepts emerged with Big Data and present several prototype models to demonstrate how these concepts can lead to rethinking of our research. Our intention is to generate interests and guide directions for new research in production and operations management in the era of Big Data.

Abstract Hypoxia, defined as dissolved oxygen (DO) < 2 mg/L, in the central basin of Lake Erie has been studied since the mid‐1900s. Even so, spatial patterns of hypoxia, and episodic hypoxia in nearshore areas where drinking water plant intakes are located, are not well characterized owing to limited observations and short‐term dynamics. We evaluated a physically based, DO model with respect to patterns of hypoxia observed in Lake Erie. The DO model used assigned rates of sediment and water column oxygen demand that were temperature dependent but otherwise spatially and temporally uniform. The DO model was linked to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Lake Erie Operational Forecasting System hydrodynamic model, an application of the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM). Model temperature and DO were compared with observations from ship‐based studies, real‐time sensor networks and an array of moored sensors that we deployed in 2017. In years with dominant southwesterly winds, persistent downwelling occurred along the south shore, which resulted in a thinner thermocline and earlier initiation of hypoxia along the south shore than the north. Occasional northeast winds temporarily reversed this pattern, causing upwelling along the south shore that brought hypoxic water to nearshore locations and water intakes. The DO model reproduced observed spatial and temporal patterns of hypoxia and revealed locations subject to episodes of hypoxia, including nearshore Ohio, north of Pelee Island, and near the Bass Islands. Model skill was limited in some respects, highlighting the importance of accurate simulation of the thermal structure and spatial patterns of oxygen demand rates.

Hypoxia (low dissolved oxygen) is a mounting concern for aquatic ecosystems as its prevalence increases with rising anthropogenic nutrient inputs. Hypoxia is most commonly defined as 2.0 mg l –1 of dissolved oxygen, although this level varies widely across studies and agency regulations. Such definitions may be too conservative, as ecologically‐relevant non‐lethal effects (e.g. consumption and growth) of hypoxia on important aquatic species, such as fish, often occur at oxygen levels much higher than 2.0 mg l –1 . In addition, many mechanisms that regulate hypoxia tolerance in fish have been proposed, including temperature, habitat, location in the water column, and body size, but there is ongoing debate over which mechanisms are most important. Using a structured meta‐analysis of published studies, we showed consistent, significant negative effects on fish growth and consumption below 4.5 mg l –1 . While the total amount of variation explained was generally low, below 4.5 mg l –1 of dissolved oxygen, phylogenetic relationships accounted for most of the explained variation in fish growth. Ecological factors including body size, location in the water column (pelagic, demersal, or benthopelagic), habitat (freshwater, marine, or diadromous), and temperature explained very little of the effect of hypoxia on fish growth and explained only a moderate level of variation in consumption. Our results suggest a dramatically higher threshold for sub‐lethal effects of hypoxia on fish than oxygen levels generally set for regulation purposes, and provide little support for accepted ecological mechanisms thought to influence hypoxia tolerance.

In rivers, lakes, and other aquatic systems throughout the world, intake pipes withdraw huge volumes of water for industrial purposes, including power plant cooling. During this process, large numbers of small-bodied, early life-stages of fish are pulled into pipes (i.e., entrained) and may be subjected to physical, thermal and chemical stress. As a result of such entrainment, these organisms can suffer direct or indirect mortality. However, given that the vast majority of larval fish are likely to die during early life due to natural processes, it is not obvious that entrainment-related mortality will have a strong influence on subsequent adult population sizes. The ability to evaluate if larval fish are dead on arrival, moribund, or in poor condition (i.e., likely to die through natural processes) at the time of entrainment could shed light on likely population-level impacts. To this end, we review the potential use of RNA:DNA ratios to index condition of entrained larval fish. Through a meta-analysis of published research studies, we demonstrate that RNA:DNA ratios of larval fish are responsive to starvation stress, with effect size increasing with duration of starvation. We relate these results to a surrogate measure of irreversible long-term negative impacts to fish populations, and demonstrate that the timescale over which RNA:DNA ratios respond to stress may not be long enough to reflect before-and-after entrainment stress. We also highlight the diverse factors contributing to variation of RNA:DNA ratios, including methodological, ontogenetic, and thermal influences. We believe that the need to account for these influences when comparing among RNA:DNA values limits the utility of broadly using RNA:DNA ratios to evaluate entrainment effects. However, the method shows promise as a quick and efficient means of determining fish condition and, used in proper context (e.g., specific to a given set of environmental conditions; in conjunction with other assessment techniques), may provide a powerful tool in assessing the effects of entrainment on fish populations. Assuming that researchers can account for sources of background variation, RNA:DNA analyses may be most useful for assessing the condition of fish larvae susceptible to entrainment (i.e., physically in the vicinity of the water intake) and/or evaluating whether fish larvae are likely to die from natural processes independent of entrainment.

Seasonal degradation of aquatic habitats from hypoxia occurs in numerous freshwater and coastal marine systems and can result in direct mortality or displacement of fish. Yet, fishery landings from these systems are frequently unresponsive to changes in the severity and extent of hypoxia, and population-scale effects have been difficult to measure except in extreme hypoxic conditions with hypoxia-sensitive species. We investigated fine-scale temporal and spatial variability in dissolved oxygen in Lake Erie as it related to fish distribution and catch efficiencies of both active (bottom trawls) and passive (trap nets) fishing gears. Temperature and dissolved oxygen loggers placed near the edge of the hypolimnion exhibited much higher than expected variability. Hypoxic episodes of variable durations were frequently punctuated by periods of normoxia, consistent with high-frequency internal waves. High-resolution interpolations of water quality and hydroacoustic surveys suggest that fish habitat is compressed during hypoxic episodes, resulting in higher fish densities near the edges of hypoxia. At fixed locations with passive commercial fishing gear, catches with the highest values occurred when bottom waters were hypoxic for intermediate proportions of time. Proximity to hypoxia explained significant variation in bottom trawl catches, with higher catch rates near the edge of hypoxia. These results emphasize how hypoxia may elevate catch rates in various types of fishing gears, leading to a lack of association between indices of hypoxia and fishery landings. Increased catch rates of fish at the edges of hypoxia have important implications for stock assessment models that assume catchability is spatially homogeneous.

Aquatic hypoxia within the Laurentian Great Lakes has contributed to various adverse ecological consequences and stimulated research interest in recent decades. An analysis of published peer-reviewed journal articles from 2000 to 2020 demonstrates an increasing trend of studies related to hypoxia in the Laurentian Great Lakes. However, the majority of these studies (78%) focus on Lake Erie and in particular the well-documented hypolimnetic hypoxic conditions that develop in the central basin of Lake Erie. This hypoxic zone is relatively large (up to 1.5 million ha), has substantial ecological effects, and motivates monitoring programs and water quality improvement initiatives. Nonetheless, the hypoxic zone in the central basin of Lake Erie is only one of over twenty documented hypoxic zones in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Moreover, hypoxic conditions in the Great Lakes are quite diverse. Here, we define and characterize a four-fold classification of Great Lakes hypoxic conditions: 1) hypolimnetic hypoxia, 2) over-winter hypoxia, 3) diel hypoxia, and 4) episodic hypoxia. We suggest that Great Lakes research and monitoring programs should seek to more broadly document hypoxic conditions and develop models to predict the temporal and spatial occurrence of hypoxia. Such efforts are particularly timely as future climatic conditions contributing to warmer temperatures, longer and more intense stratified periods, increased spring nutrient loading and more variable allocthonous inputs are expected to exacerbate three of the four hypoxic conditions described for the Great Lakes (hypolimnetic, diel, and episodic hypoxia).

Abstract. An updated and expanded representation of organics in the chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy for Atmospheric Chemistry) has been evaluated. First, the comprehensive Mainz Organic Mechanism (MOM) in the submodel MECCA (Module Efficiently Calculating the Chemistry of the Atmosphere) was activated with explicit degradation of organic species up to five carbon atoms and a simplified mechanism for larger molecules. Second, the ORACLE submodel (version 1.0) now considers condensation on aerosols for all organics in the mechanism. Parameterizations for aerosol yields are used only for the lumped species that are not included in the explicit mechanism. The simultaneous usage of MOM and ORACLE allows an efficient estimation of not only the chemical degradation of the simulated volatile organic compounds but also the contribution of organics to the growth and fate of (organic) aerosol, with the complexity of the mechanism largely increased compared to EMAC simulations with more simplified chemistry. The model evaluation presented here reveals that the OH concentration is reproduced well globally, whereas significant biases for observed oxygenated organics are present. We also investigate the general properties of the aerosols and their composition, showing that the more sophisticated and process-oriented secondary aerosol formation does not degrade the good agreement of previous model configurations with observations at the surface, allowing further research in the field of gas–aerosol interactions.

Abstract Offspring size determines offspring survival rates; thus, understanding factors influencing offspring size variability could elucidate variation in population dynamics. Offspring size variation is influenced through multigenerational adaptation to local environments and within‐lifetime plastic responses to environmental variability and maternal effects among individuals. Moreover, offspring size variation may represent trade‐offs in energy allocation within individuals that influence lifetime reproductive success. However, the mechanisms whereby environmental conditions influence offspring size, e.g., via inducing adaptive and plastic variation in population‐scale maternal effects, remain poorly understood. We evaluated intra‐specific variation in maternal effects, egg size, and intra‐individual egg size variation in six populations of walleye ( Sander vitreus ) and related among‐ and within‐population patterns to thermal conditions. Egg size was conserved within populations and negatively related to long‐term thermal conditions among populations, while maternal effect strengths were positively related to thermal conditions, suggesting that populations inhabiting warmer environments adapted to produce smaller eggs but stronger maternal effects. Within a population, egg size was positively related to colder winters, suggesting cold winters may alter egg size through effects on maternal condition or as an adaptive maternal effect to improve offspring survival. Intra‐individual egg size variation varied little among populations or with female size, but declined with increasing summer and decreasing winter temperatures. Our result suggests that environmental conditions could impact not only short‐term offspring production but also spur adaptive changes in offspring phenotypes. Thus, it is necessary to account for adaptive responses to predict population dynamics under environmental changes.

ABSTRACT: Canned tuna ( n = 240), salmon ( n = 16), and mackerel ( n = 16) were analyzed for mercury and fatty acids. Average mercury levels were 188, 45, and 55 ppb, respectively, and below the FDA Action Level of 1000 ppb. “Light tuna in water” contained lower mercury (x = 54 ppb) compared with “white/albacore tuna in water,” which contained higher eicosapentaenoic acid/docosahexaenoic acid (EPA/DHA) x= 711 mg/100 g wet tissue). Mercury residues in salmon (x = 45 ppb) and mackerel (x = 55 ppb) were lower than in tuna products, but the EPA/DHA levels were higher (salmon, ×= 1623 mg/100 g wet tissue; mackerel, ×= 851 mg/100 g wet tissue). Information from this study will help women of childbearing age to limit their intake of mercury while obtaining healthy fats from fish.

One of the most challenging issues in transparent conductive oxides (TCOs) is to improve their conductivity without compromising transparency. High conductivity in TCO films often comes from a high carrier concentration, which is detrimental to transparency due to free carrier absorption. Here we show that UV laser crystallization (UVLC) of aluminum-doped ZnO (AZO) films prepared by pulsed laser deposition on sapphire results in much higher Hall mobility, allowing relaxation of the constraints of the conductivity/transparency trade-off. X-ray diffraction patterns and morphological characterizations show grain growth and crystallinity enhancement during UVLC, resulting in less film internal imperfections. Optoelectronic measurements show that UVLC dramatically improves the electron mobility, while the carrier concentration decreases which in turn simultaneously increases conductivity and transparency. AZO films under optimized UVLC achieve the highest electron mobility of 79 cm2/V s at a low carrier concentration of 7.9 × 10+19 cm−3. This is realized by a laser crystallization induced decrease of both grain boundary density and electron trap density at grain boundaries. The infrared (IR) to mid-IR range transmittance spectrum shows UVLC significantly enhances the AZO film transparency without compromising conductivity.

Human-driven environmental change underlies recent changes in water clarity in many of the world’s great lakes, yet our understanding of the consequences of these changes on the fish and fisheries they support remains incomplete. Herein, we offer a framework to organize current knowledge, guide future research, and help fisheries managers understand how water clarity can affect their valued populations. Emphasizing Laurentian Great Lakes findings where possible, we describe how changing water clarity can directly affect fish populations and communities by altering exposure to ultraviolet radiation, foraging success, predation risk, reproductive behavior, or territoriality. We also discuss how changing water clarity can affect fisheries harvest and assessment through effects on fisher behavior and sampling efficiency (i.e., catchability). Finally, we discuss whether changing water clarity can affect understudied aspects of fishery performance, including economic and community benefits. We conclude by identifying generalized predictions and discuss their implications for priority research questions for the Laurentian Great Lakes. Even though the motivation for this work was regional, the breadth of the review and generality of the framework are readily transferable to other freshwater and marine habitats.

Transition from endogenous to exogenous feeding is thought to be a critical period for many fish larvae, when prey availability (type, size, and density) and ambient physical conditions (e.g., temperature, water clarity) can strongly influence survival. In Lake Michigan, two important fish species, yellow perch (Perca flavescens) and alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), hatch and, presumably, begin exogenously feeding in the nearshore zone, an area characterized by short-term variation in environmental conditions. During 2010-2011, we examined environmental conditions and spatial and temporal distributions of larval yellow perch, larval alewife, and their potential prey in a nearshore region of southeastern Lake Michigan. To consider implications of environmental conditions on larval fish habitat quality, we quantified diet contents of young larval yellow perch and alewife and modeled bioenergetic growth rate potential (an index of habitat quality) under observed and predicted prey consumption scenarios. As expected, in this dynamic nearshore zone temperatures, light levels, zooplankton prey availability, and resulting growth rate potential were highly variable. Many larval fish digestive tracts were empty, suggesting that starvation may affect cohort survival. Among early-feeding larval fish, relatively small diet items were common, with larval alewives consuming diatoms and larval yellow perch consuming veligers of invasive dreissenid mussels. Though the mechanisms underlying such prey consumption and the consequences of ingesting these prey items remain largely unexplored, our results suggest dreissenid mussel veligers present early-feeding larvae with a relatively abundant prey source that may partially offset the apparent low consumption of other prey sources within Lake Michigan’s nearshore region.

In Lake Michigan, the unintended introduction of invasive species (e.g., zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha; quagga mussel, D. rostriformis bugensis; round goby, Neogobius melanostomus) and reduced nutrient loading has altered nutrient dynamics, system productivity, and community composition over the past two decades. These factors, together with sustained predation pressure, have contributed to declines of several forage fish species, including alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus), which has dominated diets of the five primary salmonine species of Lake Michigan for the last 50 years. Salmonines that have inflexible, less complex diets may struggle if alewife declines continue. We analyzed stomach contents of salmonines collected throughout the main basin of Lake Michigan in 2015 and 2016 to investigate diet composition, diet diversity, and individual variation of alewife lengths consumed. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) almost exclusively consumed alewife and had lower diet diversities compared to the other four species, which consumed relatively high frequencies of round goby (brown trout, Salmo trutta; lake trout, Salvelinus namaycush), aquatic invertebrates (coho salmon, Oncorhynchus kisutch) and terrestrial invertebrates (rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss) along with alewife. Although clear spatio-temporal feeding patterns existed, much of the variation in diet composition and diet diversity was expressed at the individual level. Salmonine populations consumed the entire size range of alewife that were available, whereas individual stomachs tended to contain a narrow range of alewife sizes. Due to their reliance on alewife, it is likely that Chinook salmon will be more negatively impacted than other salmonine species if alewife abundance continues to decline in Lake Michigan.

The global spread of invasive species is changing the structure of aquatic food webs worldwide. The North American Great Lakes have proved particularly vulnerable to this threat. In nearshore areas, invasive benthic species such as dreissenid mussels and round gobies (Neogobius melanostomus) have gained dominance in recent years. Such species are driving the flow of energy and material from the water column to the benthic zone, with dramatic effect on nutrient and contaminant cycling. Here, we develop a stage-structured model of a benthified food web in Lake Michigan with seasonal resolution and show how its bioaccumulation patterns differ from expected ones. Our model suggests that contaminant recycling through the consumption of lipid-rich fish eggs and mussel detritus is responsible for these differences. In southern Lake Michigan's Calumet Harbor (Chicago, IL, USA), round gobies have nitrogen isotope signatures with considerable spread, with some values higher than their predators and others lower than their prey. Contrary to patterns observed in linear pelagic systems, we predict that polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations in these fish decrease with increasing size due to the lipid- and benthos-enriched diets of smaller fish. We also present here round goby PCB concentrations measured in 2005 after an invasional succession in Calumet Harbor and demonstrate how the change from one invasive mussel species to another may have led to a decrease in round goby PCB accumulation. Our results suggest that benthic-dominated systems differ from pelagic ones chiefly due to the influence of detritus and that these effects are exacerbated in systems with low species diversity and high biomass.

Size-selective harvest of fish stocks can lead to maturation at smaller sizes and younger ages, which may depress stock productivity and recovery. Such changes in maturation may be very slow to reverse, even following complete fisheries closures. We evaluated temporal trends in maturation of five Great Lakes stocks of yellow perch (Perca flavescens Mitchill) using indices that attempt to disentangle plastic and evolutionary changes in maturation: age at 50% maturity and probabilistic maturation reaction norms (PMRNs). Four populations were fished commercially throughout the time series, while the Lake Michigan fishery was closed following a stock collapse. We documented rapid increases in PMRNs of the Lake Michigan stock coincident with the commercial fishery closure. Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron PMRNs also increased following reduced harvest, while Lake Erie populations were continuously fished and showed little change. The rapid response of maturation may have been enhanced by the short generation time of yellow perch and potential gene flow between northern and southern Lake Michigan, in addition to potential reverse adaptation following the fishing moratorium. These results suggest that some fish stocks may retain the ability to recover from fisheries-induced life history shifts following fishing moratoria.

Although open ocean time-series sites have been areas of microbial research for years, relatively little is known about the population dynamics of bacterioplankton communities in the coastal ocean on kilometer spatial and seasonal temporal scales. To gain a better understanding of microbial community variability, monthly samples of bacterial biomass were collected in 1995-1996 along a 34-km transect near the Long-Term Ecosystem Observatory (LEO-15) off the New Jersey coast. Surface and bottom sampling was performed at seven stations along a transect line with depths ranging from 1 to 35 m (n=178). Microbial populations were fingerprinted using ribosomal 16S rRNA genes and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. Results from cluster analysis revealed distinct temporal patterns among the bacterioplankton communities in the Mid-Atlantic Bight rather than grouping by sample location or depth. Principal components analysis models supported the temporal patterns. In addition, partial least squares regression modeling could not discern a significant correlation from traditional oceanographic physical and phytoplankton nutrient parameters on overall bacterial community variability patterns at LEO-15. These results suggest factors not traditionally measured during oceanographic studies are structuring coastal microbial communities.

Fisheries are selective, capturing fish based on their body size, behaviour, life stage, or location. Over time, if harvest pressure is strong enough and variation in traits heritable, evolution can occur that affects key aspects of the ecology of fish stocks. Most compelling examples of rapid evolution in response to harvest have come from marine systems. Here, we review the state of knowledge on fisheries-induced evolution (FIE) in the Laurentian Great Lakes where subsistence, commercial, and recreational fisheries have operated for centuries. We conclude that stocks experienced harvest rates high enough and for long enough to undergo evolution. While historical fisheries exploited more juveniles, some contemporary Great Lakes fisheries target primarily adult size-classes thus reducing current selection for earlier maturation; however, other traits and behaviours could evolve (e.g., growth, timing of spawning, boldness). While commercial harvest previously dominated, recreational fishing is now expected to be a strong contributor to harvest selection in the Great Lakes. Environmental variation, density-dependence, invasive species, and the genetic legacy of population bottlenecks and stocking interact with, and make it more challenging to detect, FIE in the Great Lakes than in marine systems. Case studies are presented for Great Lakes stocks of yellow perch Perca flavescens and lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis for which FIE has been investigated. The evidence for FIE in the Great Lakes is currently sparse, potentially because of the low research focus on this topic or because of the interacting influence of environmental variation and anthropogenic stressors.

Abstract Nutrient abatement programmes have been successfully implemented around the globe to reduce nutrient loading into aquatic ecosystems. Concurrently, the worldwide spread of invasive filter feeders, such as dreissenid mussels, may alter nutrient dynamics in invaded systems by sequestering nutrients away from pelagic zones and reducing primary production in offshore areas. Such is the case in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America, where decades of nutrient abatement and the establishment of dreissenid mussels have seemingly resulted in more oligotrophic conditions and altered spatial patterns of nutrient availability and primary production. Recent studies have focused on whole lake trends in primary production despite spatial differences in tributary inputs, bathymetry, and other environmental conditions that can affect primary production in nearshore areas. Thus, we hypothesised that trends in nearshore chlorophyll concentrations in different areas may diverge in a manner consistent with spatial differences in nutrient input. To evaluate these differences in surface chlorophyll responses, we assessed temporal trends in four different areas of Lake Michigan and three different areas of Lake Huron. We hypothesised that in lakes Huron and Michigan, nearshore zones have experienced slower declines of chlorophyll concentrations relative to offshore zones. To assess this hypothesis, we estimated temporal trends of surface water chlorophyll concentrations (a proxy for primary production) from satellite imagery from 1998 to 2013. We calculated average surface chlorophyll concentrations for 10‐m depth intervals ranging from the shore (0–10 m) to offshore (>90 m) during representative months of May, July, and September. We then analysed these data to determine if long‐term trends in surface chlorophyll varied by season, proximity to the shoreline, and water depth. The rates of annual change in chlorophyll concentrations in nearshore areas were markedly different to offshore trends in both lakes. Chlorophyll concentrations declined overtime in offshore areas, but nearshore chlorophyll concentrations were either stable (in May) or increased (in July and September) throughout the time series. Differences in chlorophyll concentrations among areas were prominent in Lake Michigan. While differences between the northern and southern basin have been previously documented, trends in chlorophyll concentrations also differed between the eastern and western sides of Lake Michigan. Despite similar bathymetry and geographic features to Lake Michigan, regional trends were not observed in Lake Huron. The results of this study are generally consistent with the nearshore shunt hypothesis, which predicts that dreissenid filtering, nutrient re‐suspension, and continued nutrient loading from tributaries can cause an increase in primary production in nearshore areas during periods of offshore oligotrophication. Thus, the localised effects of nutrient abatement programmes in a given lake will be influenced by complex interactions between lake bathymetry and the presence of non‐native filter feeding organisms.

Abstract Remnant populations of Cisco Coregonus artedi persist at the southern extent of their range among northern Indiana's glacial lakes, where most of their populations have become extirpated during the past century. Land‐use practices have likely accelerated lake eutrophication, while climate change threatens to further degrade the habitat necessary to sustain Ciscoes in Indiana. However, because the effects of these stressors have not been ubiquitous, an understanding of the factors that have contributed to either extirpation or persistence of Cisco populations will better inform future conservation practices. We analyzed lake morphometric and land‐use data to identify lakes that (1) are most likely to sustain Ciscoes, (2) are most likely to lose Ciscoes, and (3) have lost Ciscoes but are similar to current Cisco lakes and hence may be targets for restoration. We found that large, deep lakes located further north were more suitable for Ciscoes in the past, but that smaller lakes with a high ratio of lake area to catchment area have retained Cisco populations. This pattern supports the hypothesis that non‐point‐source nutrient loading is a driver of Cisco extirpations. Our results provide information to better manage a species of special concern in Indiana and of conservation interest in many other areas. Received August 5, 2015; accepted November 20, 2015

Abstract The predictive power of recruitment models often relies on the identification and quantification of external variables, in addition to stock size. In theory, the identification of climatic, biotic, or demographic influences on reproductive success assists fisheries management by identifying factors that have a direct and reproducible influence on the population dynamics of a target species. More often, models are constructed as one‐time studies of a single population whose results are not revisited when further data become available. Here, we present results from stock recruitment models for Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and Bloater Coregonus hoyi in Lakes Michigan and Huron. The factors that explain variation in Bloater recruitment were remarkably consistent across populations and with previous studies that found Bloater recruitment to be linked to population demographic patterns in Lake Michigan. Conversely, our models were poor predictors of Alewife recruitment in Lake Huron but did show some agreement with previously published models from Lake Michigan. Overall, our results suggest that external predictors of fish recruitment are difficult to discern using traditional fisheries models, and reproducing the results from previous studies may be difficult particularly at low population sizes.