Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol

BACKGROUND: Observational cohort studies and a secondary prevention trial have shown inverse associations between adherence to the Mediterranean diet and cardiovascular risk. METHODS: In a multicenter trial in Spain, we assigned 7447 participants (55 to 80 years of age, 57% women) who were at high cardiovascular risk, but with no cardiovascular disease at enrollment, to one of three diets: a Mediterranean diet supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil, a Mediterranean diet supplemented with mixed nuts, or a control diet (advice to reduce dietary fat). Participants received quarterly educational sessions and, depending on group assignment, free provision of extra-virgin olive oil, mixed nuts, or small nonfood gifts. The primary end point was a major cardiovascular event (myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes). After a median follow-up of 4.8 years, the trial was stopped on the basis of a prespecified interim analysis. In 2013, we reported the results for the primary end point in the Journal. We subsequently identified protocol deviations, including enrollment of household members without randomization, assignment to a study group without randomization of some participants at 1 of 11 study sites, and apparent inconsistent use of randomization tables at another site. We have withdrawn our previously published report and now report revised effect estimates based on analyses that do not rely exclusively on the assumption that all the participants were randomly assigned. RESULTS: A primary end-point event occurred in 288 participants; there were 96 events in the group assigned to a Mediterranean diet with extra-virgin olive oil (3.8%), 83 in the group assigned to a Mediterranean diet with nuts (3.4%), and 109 in the control group (4.4%). In the intention-to-treat analysis including all the participants and adjusting for baseline characteristics and propensity scores, the hazard ratio was 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.53 to 0.91) for a Mediterranean diet with extra-virgin olive oil and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.54 to 0.95) for a Mediterranean diet with nuts, as compared with the control diet. Results were similar after the omission of 1588 participants whose study-group assignments were known or suspected to have departed from the protocol. CONCLUSIONS: In this study involving persons at high cardiovascular risk, the incidence of major cardiovascular events was lower among those assigned to a Mediterranean diet supplemented with extra-virgin olive oil or nuts than among those assigned to a reduced-fat diet. (Funded by Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spanish Ministry of Health, and others; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN35739639 .).

INTRODUCTION: Multimorbidity is a major concern in primary care. Nevertheless, evidence of prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity, and their determinants, are scarce. The aim of this study is to systematically review studies of the prevalence, patterns and determinants of multimorbidity in primary care. METHODS: Systematic review of literature published between 1961 and 2013 and indexed in Ovid (CINAHL, PsychINFO, Medline and Embase) and Web of Knowledge. Studies were selected according to eligibility criteria of addressing prevalence, determinants, and patterns of multimorbidity and using a pretested proforma in primary care. The quality and risk of bias were assessed using STROBE criteria. Two researchers assessed the eligibility of studies for inclusion (Kappa= 0.86). RESULTS: We identified 39 eligible publications describing studies that included a total of 70,057,611 patients in 12 countries. The number of health conditions analysed per study ranged from 5 to 335, with multimorbidity prevalence ranging from 12.9% to 95.1%. All studies observed a significant positive association between multimorbidity and age (odds ratio [OR], 1.26 to 227.46), and lower socioeconomic status (OR, 1.20 to 1.91). Positive associations with female gender and mental disorders were also observed. The most frequent patterns of multimorbidity included osteoarthritis together with cardiovascular and/or metabolic conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Well-established determinants of multimorbidity include age, lower socioeconomic status and gender. The most prevalent conditions shape the patterns of multimorbidity. However, the limitations of the current evidence base means that further and better designed studies are needed to inform policy, research and clinical practice, with the goal of improving health-related quality of life for patients with multimorbidity. Standardization of the definition and assessment of multimorbidity is essential in order to better understand this phenomenon, and is a necessary immediate step.

BACKGROUND: Since the beginning of December 2019, the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread rapidly around the world, which has led to increased discussions across online platforms. These conversations have also included various conspiracies shared by social media users. Amongst them, a popular theory has linked 5G to the spread of COVID-19, leading to misinformation and the burning of 5G towers in the United Kingdom. The understanding of the drivers of fake news and quick policies oriented to isolate and rebate misinformation are keys to combating it. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to develop an understanding of the drivers of the 5G COVID-19 conspiracy theory and strategies to deal with such misinformation. METHODS: This paper performs a social network analysis and content analysis of Twitter data from a 7-day period (Friday, March 27, 2020, to Saturday, April 4, 2020) in which the #5GCoronavirus hashtag was trending on Twitter in the United Kingdom. Influential users were analyzed through social network graph clusters. The size of the nodes were ranked by their betweenness centrality score, and the graph's vertices were grouped by cluster using the Clauset-Newman-Moore algorithm. The topics and web sources used were also examined. RESULTS: Social network analysis identified that the two largest network structures consisted of an isolates group and a broadcast group. The analysis also revealed that there was a lack of an authority figure who was actively combating such misinformation. Content analysis revealed that, of 233 sample tweets, 34.8% (n=81) contained views that 5G and COVID-19 were linked, 32.2% (n=75) denounced the conspiracy theory, and 33.0% (n=77) were general tweets not expressing any personal views or opinions. Thus, 65.2% (n=152) of tweets derived from nonconspiracy theory supporters, which suggests that, although the topic attracted high volume, only a handful of users genuinely believed the conspiracy. This paper also shows that fake news websites were the most popular web source shared by users; although, YouTube videos were also shared. The study also identified an account whose sole aim was to spread the conspiracy theory on Twitter. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of quick and targeted interventions oriented to delegitimize the sources of fake information is key to reducing their impact. Those users voicing their views against the conspiracy theory, link baiting, or sharing humorous tweets inadvertently raised the profile of the topic, suggesting that policymakers should insist in the efforts of isolating opinions that are based on fake news. Many social media platforms provide users with the ability to report inappropriate content, which should be used. This study is the first to analyze the 5G conspiracy theory in the context of COVID-19 on Twitter offering practical guidance to health authorities in how, in the context of a pandemic, rumors may be combated in the future.

Abstract Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3–6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.

BACKGROUND: To our knowledge, no meta-analysis to date has assessed the efficacy of mobile phone apps to promote weight loss and increase physical activity. OBJECTIVE: To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies to compare the efficacy of mobile phone apps compared with other approaches to promote weight loss and increase physical activity. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of relevant studies identified by a search of PubMed, the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Scopus from their inception through to August 2015. Two members of the study team (EG-F, GF-M) independently screened studies for inclusion criteria and extracted data. We included all controlled studies that assessed a mobile phone app intervention with weight-related health measures (ie, body weight, body mass index, or waist circumference) or physical activity outcomes. Net change estimates comparing the intervention group with the control group were pooled across studies using random-effects models. RESULTS: We included 12 articles in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Compared with the control group, use of a mobile phone app was associated with significant changes in body weight (kg) and body mass index (kg/m(2)) of -1.04 kg (95% CI -1.75 to -0.34; I2 = 41%) and -0.43 kg/m(2) (95% CI -0.74 to -0.13; I2 = 50%), respectively. Moreover, a nonsignificant difference in physical activity was observed between the two groups (standardized mean difference 0.40, 95% CI -0.07 to 0.87; I2 = 93%). These findings were remarkably robust in the sensitivity analysis. No publication bias was shown. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence from this study shows that mobile phone app-based interventions may be useful tools for weight loss.

OBJECTIVE: Studies of previous cohorts have demonstrated an association between a status of overweight/obesity and the presence of knee and hand osteoarthritis (OA). However, no data on the effect of these factors on the OA burden are available. The aim of the present study was to analyze the effect of being overweight or obese on the incidence of routinely diagnosed knee, hip, and hand OA. METHODS: The study was conducted in a population-based cohort using primary care records from the Sistema d'Informació per al Desenvolupament de l'Investigació en Atenció Primària database (>5.5 million subjects, covering >80% of the population of Catalonia, Spain). Participants were subjects ages ≥40 years who were without a diagnosis of OA on January 1, 2006 and had available body mass index (BMI) data. All subjects were followed up from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2010 or to the time of loss to follow-up or death. Measures included the World Health Organization categories of BMI (exposure), and incident clinical diagnoses of knee, hip, or hand OA according to International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes. RESULTS: In total, 1,764,061 subjects were observed for a median follow-up period of 4.45 years (interquartile range 4.19-4.98 years). Incidence rates (per 1,000 person-years at risk) of knee, hip, and hand OA were 3.7 (99% confidence interval [99% CI] 3.6-3.8), 1.7 (99% CI 1.7-1.8), and 2.6 (99% CI 2.5-2.7), respectively, among subjects in the normal weight category, and 19.5 (99% CI 19.1-19.9), 3.8 (99% CI 3.7-4.0), and 4.0 (99% CI 3.9-4.2), respectively, in those with a classification of grade II obesity. Compared to subjects with normal weight, being overweight or obese increased the risk of OA at all 3 joint sites, especially at the knee. A status of overweight, grade I obesity, and grade II obesity increased the risk of knee OA by a factor of 2-fold, 3.1-fold, and 4.7-fold, respectively. CONCLUSION: Being overweight or obese increases the risk of hand, hip, and knee OA, with the greatest risk in the knee, and this occurs on a dose-response gradient of increasing BMI.

OBJECTIVE The long-term impact of intentional weight loss on cardiovascular events remains unknown. We describe 12-month changes in body weight and cardiovascular risk factors in PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED)-Plus, a trial designed to evaluate the long-term effectiveness of an intensive weight loss lifestyle intervention on primary cardiovascular prevention. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Overweight/obese adults with metabolic syndrome aged 55–75 years (n = 626) were randomized to an intensive weight loss lifestyle intervention based on an energy-restricted Mediterranean diet, physical activity promotion, and behavioral support (IG) or a control group (CG). The primary and secondary outcomes were changes in weight and cardiovascular risk markers, respectively. RESULTS Diet and physical activity changes were in the expected direction, with significant improvements in IG versus CG. After 12 months, IG participants lost an average of 3.2 kg vs. 0.7 kg in the CG (P < 0.001), a mean difference of −2.5 kg (95% CI −3.1 to −1.9). Weight loss ≥5% occurred in 33.7% of IG participants compared with 11.9% in the CG (P < 0.001). Compared with the CG, cardiovascular risk factors, including waist circumference, fasting glucose, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol, significantly improved in IG participants (P < 0.002). Reductions in insulin resistance, HbA1c, and circulating levels of leptin, interleukin-18, and MCP-1 were greater in IG than CG participants (P < 0.05). IG participants with prediabetes/diabetes significantly improved glycemic control and insulin sensitivity, along with triglycerides and HDL cholesterol levels compared with their CG counterparts. CONCLUSIONS PREDIMED-Plus intensive lifestyle intervention for 12 months was effective in decreasing adiposity and improving cardiovascular risk factors in overweight/obese older adults with metabolic syndrome, as well as in individuals with or at risk for diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes is a common cause of shortened life expectancy. We aimed to assess the association between diabetes and cause-specific death. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used the pooled analysis of individual data from 12 Spanish population cohorts with 10-year follow-up. Participants had no previous history of cardiovascular diseases and were 35-79 years old. Diabetes status was self-reported or defined as glycemia >125 mg/dL at baseline. Vital status and causes of death were ascertained by medical records review and linkage with the official death registry. The hazard ratios and cumulative mortality function were assessed with two approaches, with and without competing risks: proportional subdistribution hazard (PSH) and cause-specific hazard (CSH), respectively. Multivariate analyses were fitted for cardiovascular, cancer, and noncardiovascular noncancer deaths. RESULTS: We included 55,292 individuals (15.6% with diabetes and overall mortality of 9.1%). The adjusted hazard ratios showed that diabetes increased mortality risk: 1) cardiovascular death, CSH = 2.03 (95% CI 1.63-2.52) and PSH = 1.99 (1.60-2.49) in men; and CSH = 2.28 (1.75-2.97) and PSH = 2.23 (1.70-2.91) in women; 2) cancer death, CSH = 1.37 (1.13-1.67) and PSH = 1.35 (1.10-1.65) in men; and CSH = 1.68 (1.29-2.20) and PSH = 1.66 (1.25-2.19) in women; and 3) noncardiovascular noncancer death, CSH = 1.53 (1.23-1.91) and PSH = 1.50 (1.20-1.89) in men; and CSH = 1.89 (1.43-2.48) and PSH = 1.84 (1.39-2.45) in women. In all instances, the cumulative mortality function was significantly higher in individuals with diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes is associated with premature death from cardiovascular disease, cancer, and noncardiovascular noncancer causes. The use of CSH and PSH provides a comprehensive view of mortality dynamics in a population with diabetes.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether individuals at high cardiovascular risk sustain a benefit in cardiovascular disease from increased olive oil consumption. The aim was to assess the association between total olive oil intake, its varieties (extra virgin and common olive oil) and the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. METHODS: We included 7,216 men and women at high cardiovascular risk, aged 55 to 80 years, from the PREvención con DIeta MEDiterránea (PREDIMED) study, a multicenter, randomized, controlled, clinical trial. Participants were randomized to one of three interventions: Mediterranean Diets supplemented with nuts or extra-virgin olive oil, or a control low-fat diet. The present analysis was conducted as an observational prospective cohort study. The median follow-up was 4.8 years. Cardiovascular disease (stroke, myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death) and mortality were ascertained by medical records and National Death Index. Olive oil consumption was evaluated with validated food frequency questionnaires. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards and generalized estimating equations were used to assess the association between baseline and yearly repeated measurements of olive oil intake, cardiovascular disease and mortality. RESULTS: During follow-up, 277 cardiovascular events and 323 deaths occurred. Participants in the highest energy-adjusted tertile of baseline total olive oil and extra-virgin olive oil consumption had 35% (HR: 0.65; 95% CI: 0.47 to 0.89) and 39% (HR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.44 to 0.85) cardiovascular disease risk reduction, respectively, compared to the reference. Higher baseline total olive oil consumption was associated with 48% (HR: 0.52; 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.93) reduced risk of cardiovascular mortality. For each 10 g/d increase in extra-virgin olive oil consumption, cardiovascular disease and mortality risk decreased by 10% and 7%, respectively. No significant associations were found for cancer and all-cause mortality. The associations between cardiovascular events and extra virgin olive oil intake were significant in the Mediterranean diet intervention groups and not in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: Olive oil consumption, specifically the extra-virgin variety, is associated with reduced risks of cardiovascular disease and mortality in individuals at high cardiovascular risk. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was registered at controlled-trials.com (http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN35739639). International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 35739639. Registration date: 5 October 2005.

The association between obesity and fracture is controversial. We investigated the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and fracture at different skeletal sites in women aged ≥50 years using data from the Sistema d' Informació per al Desenvolupament de la Investigació en Atenció Primària (SIDIAP) database. SIDIAP contains the computerized medical records of >3400 general practitioners in Catalonia (northeastern Spain), with information on a representative 80% of the population (>5 million people). In 2009, 1,039,878 women aged ≥50 years were eligible, of whom 832,775 (80.1%) had a BMI measurement. These were categorized into underweight/normal (302,414 women), overweight (266,798), and obese (263,563). Fractures were ascertained using the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. Multivariate Poisson regression models were fitted to adjust for age, smoking, high alcohol intake, type 2 diabetes, and oral corticosteroid use. Hip fractures were significantly less common in overweight and obese women than in normal/underweight women (rate ratio [RR] 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68 to 0.88], RR 0.63 [95% CI 0.64 to 0.79], p < 0.001, respectively). Pelvis fracture rates were lower in the overweight (RR 0.78 [95% CI 0.63 to 0.96], p = 0.017) and obese (RR 0.58 [95% CI 0.47 to 0.73], p < 0.001) groups. Conversely, obese women were at significantly higher risk of proximal humerus fracture than the normal/underweight group (RR 1.28 [95% CI 1.04 to 1.58], p = 0.018). Clinical spine, wrist, tibial, and multiple rib fracture rates were not significantly different between groups. An age-related increase in incidence was seen for all BMI groups at all fracture sites; obese women with hip, clinical spine, and pelvis fracture were significantly younger at the time of fracture than normal/underweight women, whereas those with wrist fracture were significantly older. The association between obesity and fracture in postmenopausal women is site-dependent, obesity being protective against hip and pelvis fractures but associated with an almost 30% increase in risk for proximal humerus fractures when compared with normal/underweight women. The reasons for these site-specific variations are unknown but may be related to different patterns of falls and attenuation of their impact by adipose tissue.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common condition that progresses in some patients to steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here we used healthcare records of 18 million adults to estimate risk of acquiring advanced liver disease diagnoses in patients with NAFLD or NASH compared to individually matched controls. METHODS: Data were extracted from four European primary care databases representing the UK, Netherlands, Italy and Spain. Patients with a recorded diagnosis of NAFLD or NASH (NAFLD/NASH) were followed up for incident cirrhosis and HCC diagnoses. Each coded NAFLD/NASH patient was matched to up to 100 "non-NAFLD" patients by practice site, gender, age ± 5 years and visit recorded within ± 6 months. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox models adjusted for age and smoking status and pooled across databases by random effects meta-analyses. RESULTS: Out of 18,782,281 adults, we identified 136,703 patients with coded NAFLD/NASH. Coded NAFLD/NASH patients were more likely to have diabetes, hypertension and obesity than matched controls. HR for cirrhosis in patients compared to controls was 4.73 (95% CI 2.43-9.19) and for HCC, 3.51 (95% CI 1.72-7.16). HR for either outcome was higher in patients with NASH and those with high-risk Fib-4 scores. The strongest independent predictor of a diagnosis of HCC or cirrhosis was baseline diagnosis of diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Real-world population data show that recorded diagnosis of NAFLD/NASH increases risk of life-threatening liver outcomes. Diabetes is an independent predictor of advanced liver disease diagnosis, emphasising the need to identify specific groups of patients at highest risk.

OBJECTIVE: Lockdown has impacts on people's living conditions and mental health. The study aims to assess the relations between social impact and mental health among adults living in Spain during COVID-19 lockdown measures, taking a gender-based approach into account. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among adults living in Spain during the lockdown of COVID-19 with an online survey from 8 April to 28 May 2020. The main variable was mental health measured by Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale for anxiety and the Patient Health Questionnaire for depression. Sex-stratified multivariate ordinal logistic regression models were constructed to assess the association between social impact variables, anxiety and depression. RESULTS: A total of 7053 people completed this survey. A total of 31.2% of women and 17.7% of men reported anxiety. Depression levels were reported in 28.5% of women and 16.7% of men. A higher proportion of anxiety and depression levels was found in the younger population (18-35 years), especially in women. Poorer mental health was mainly related to fear of COVID-19 infection, with higher anxiety levels especially in women (adjusted ordinal OR (aOR): 4.23, 95% CI 3.68 to 4.87) and worsened economy with higher levels of depression in women (aOR: 1.51, 95% CI 1.24 to 1.84), and perceived inadequate housing to cope with lockdown was especially associated with anxiety in men (aOR: 2.53, 95% CI 1.93 to 3.44). CONCLUSION: The social impact of the lockdown is related to gender, age and socioeconomic conditions. Women and young people had worse mental health outcomes during lockdown. It is urgent to establish strategies for public health emergencies that include mental health and its determinants, taking a gender-based approach into account, in order to reduce health inequities.

Abstract High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries 1,2 . However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world 3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health 4,5 . However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

Cirrhosis, highly prevalent worldwide, develops after years of hepatic inflammation triggering progressive fibrosis. Currently, the main etiologies of cirrhosis are non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease, although chronic hepatitis B and C infections are still major etiological factors in some areas of the world. Recent studies have shown that liver fibrosis can be assessed with relatively high accuracy noninvasively by serological tests, transient elastography, and radiological methods. These modalities may be utilized for screening for liver fibrosis in at-risk populations. Thus far, a limited number of population-based studies using noninvasive tests in different areas of the world indicate that a significant percentage of subjects without known liver disease (around 5% in general populations and a higher rate -18% to 27%-in populations with risk factors for liver disease) have significant undetected liver fibrosis or established cirrhosis. Larger international studies are required to show the harms and benefits before concluding that screening for liver fibrosis should be applied to populations at risk for chronic liver diseases. Screening for liver fibrosis has the potential for changing the current approach from diagnosing chronic liver diseases late when patients have already developed complications of cirrhosis to diagnosing liver fibrosis in asymptomatic subjects providing the opportunity of preventing disease progression.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver fibrosis is the main determinant of long-term outcome in chronic liver diseases. Little is known about the prevalence of liver fibrosis in the general population. The aim of the study was to investigate the prevalence of liver fibrosis in the general adult population with unknown liver disease. METHODS: This was a population-based, cross-sectional study performed in the Barcelona metropolitan area. Subjects aged 18 to 75 years old were identified randomly from citizens included in the primary health care registry. Of 4866 subjects invited, 3076 participated (63.2%). Liver fibrosis was estimated by measuring liver stiffness (LS) with transient elastography (TE). Liver histology was assessed in 92 subjects with increased LS. RESULTS: Prevalence estimates of increased LS (≥6.8, ≥8.0, and ≥9.0 kPa) were 9.0%, 5.8%, and 3.6%, respectively. The etiology of liver disease was mainly nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), followed by alcohol risk consumption (consumption of ≥21 standard drinking units/wk in men and ≥14 standard drinking units/wk in women). Factors independently associated with increased LS were male sex, abdominal obesity, type 2 diabetes, serum glucose, high-density lipoprotein, and triglyceride levels. Subjects without risk factors for NAFLD or without alcohol risk consumption had a very low prevalence of increased LS. The best cut-off value of LS for significant liver fibrosis (F2-F4) was 9.2 kPa, with high sensitivity and specificity. TE was more accurate than alanine aminotransferase, NAFLD fibrosis score, or Fibrosis 4. An algorithm for screening for liver fibrosis using TE in the community setting is proposed. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show a high prevalence of silent liver disease with advanced fibrosis mainly related to NAFLD in adult European subjects without known liver disease. An LS value less than 9.2 kPa predicts the absence of significant liver fibrosis with high accuracy and could be used for screening purposes.

<h3>Background & Aims</h3> Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS) are the 2 most popular noninvasive blood-based serum tests proposed for widespread fibrosis screening. We therefore aimed to describe the accuracy of FIB-4 and NFS to detect elevated liver stiffness as an indicator of hepatic fibrosis in low-prevalence populations. <h3>Methods</h3> This study included a total of 5129 patients with concomitant measurement of FIB-4, NFS, and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by Fibroscan (Echosens, France) from 5 independent population-based cohorts from Spain, Hong Kong, Denmark, England, and France; 3979 participants from the general population and 1150 from at-risk cohorts due to alcohol, diabetes, or obesity. We correlated LSM with FIB-4 and NFS, and calculated pre- and post-test predictive values of FIB-4 and NFS to detect elevated LSM at 8 kPa and 12 kPa cutoffs. The mean age was 53 ± 12 years, the mean body mass index was 27 ± 5 kg/m², and 2439 (57%) were women. One in 10 patients (552; 11%) had liver stiffness ≥8 kPa, but 239 of those (43%) had a normal FIB-4, and 171 (31%) had normal NFS. The proportion of false-negatives was higher in at-risk patients than the general population. FIB-4 was false-negative in 11% of diabetic subjects, compared with 2.5% false-negatives with NFS. Waist circumference outperformed FIB-4 and NFS for detecting LSM ≥8 kPa in the general population. Almost one-third (28%–29%) of elevated FIB-4/NFS were false-positive in both the general population and at-risk cohorts. <h3>Conclusions</h3> FIB-4 and NFS are suboptimal for screening purposes due to a high risk of overdiagnosis and a non-negligible percentage of false-negatives, especially in patients with risk factors for chronic liver disease. Waist circumference emerged as a potential first step to identify patients at risk for liver fibrosis in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of liver disease worldwide. It affects an estimated 20% of the general population, based on cohort studies of varying size and heterogeneous selection. However, the prevalence and incidence of recorded NAFLD diagnoses in unselected real-world health-care records is unknown. We harmonised health records from four major European territories and assessed age- and sex-specific point prevalence and incidence of NAFLD over the past decade. METHODS: Data were extracted from The Health Improvement Network (UK), Health Search Database (Italy), Information System for Research in Primary Care (Spain) and Integrated Primary Care Information (Netherlands). Each database uses a different coding system. Prevalence and incidence estimates were pooled across databases by random-effects meta-analysis after a log-transformation. RESULTS: Data were available for 17,669,973 adults, of which 176,114 had a recorded diagnosis of NAFLD. Pooled prevalence trebled from 0.60% in 2007 (95% confidence interval: 0.41-0.79) to 1.85% (0.91-2.79) in 2014. Incidence doubled from 1.32 (0.83-1.82) to 2.35 (1.29-3.40) per 1000 person-years. The FIB-4 non-invasive estimate of liver fibrosis could be calculated in 40.6% of patients, of whom 29.6-35.7% had indeterminate or high-risk scores. CONCLUSIONS: In the largest primary-care record study of its kind to date, rates of recorded NAFLD are much lower than expected suggesting under-diagnosis and under-recording. Despite this, we have identified rising incidence and prevalence of the diagnosis. Improved recognition of NAFLD may identify people who will benefit from risk factor modification or emerging therapies to prevent progression to cardiometabolic and hepatic complications.

BACKGROUND: Scientific research has provided evidence on benefits of well developed primary care systems. The relevance of some of this research for the European situation is limited.There is currently a lack of up to date comprehensive and comparable information on variation in development of primary care, and a lack of knowledge of structures and strategies conducive to strengthening primary care in Europe. The EC funded project Primary Health Care Activity Monitor for Europe (PHAMEU) aims to fill this gap by developing a Primary Care Monitoring System (PC Monitor) for application in 31 European countries. This article describes the development of the indicators of the PC Monitor, which will make it possible to create an alternative model for holistic analyses of primary care. METHODS: A systematic review of the primary care literature published between 2003 and July 2008 was carried out. This resulted in an overview of: (1) the dimensions of primary care and their relevance to outcomes at (primary) health system level; (2) essential features per dimension; (3) applied indicators to measure the features of primary care dimensions. The indicators were evaluated by the project team against criteria of relevance, precision, flexibility, and discriminating power. The resulting indicator set was evaluated on its suitability for Europe-wide comparison of primary care systems by a panel of primary care experts from various European countries (representing a variety of primary care systems). RESULTS: The developed PC Monitor approaches primary care in Europe as a multidimensional concept. It describes the key dimensions of primary care systems at three levels: structure, process, and outcome level. On structure level, it includes indicators for governance, economic conditions, and workforce development. On process level, indicators describe access, comprehensiveness, continuity, and coordination of primary care services. On outcome level, indicators reflect the quality, and efficiency of primary care. CONCLUSIONS: A standardized instrument for describing and comparing primary care systems has been developed based on scientific evidence and consensus among an international panel of experts, which will be tested to all configurations of primary care in Europe, intended for producing comparable information. Widespread use of the instrument has the potential to improve the understanding of primary care delivery in different national contexts and thus to create opportunities for better decision making.

BACKGROUND: The impact of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has many facets. This ecological study analysed age-standardized incidence rates by economic level in Barcelona. METHODS: We evaluated confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Barcelona (Spain) between 26 February 2020 and 19 April 2020. Districts were classified according to most recent (2017) mean income data. The reference for estimating age-standardized cumulative incidence rates was the 2018 European population. The association between incidence rate and mean income by district was estimated with the Spearman rho. RESULTS: The lower the mean income, the higher the COVID-19 incidence (Spearman rho = 0.83; P value = 0.003). Districts with the lowest mean income had the highest incidence of COVID-19 per 10 000 inhabitants; in contrast, those with the highest income had the lowest incidence. Specifically, the district with the lowest income had 2.5 times greater incidence of the disease, compared with the highest-income district [70 (95% confidence interval 66-73) versus 28 (25-31), respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of COVID-19 showed an inverse socioeconomic gradient by mean income in the 10 districts of the city of Barcelona. Beyond healthcare for people with the disease, attention must focus on a health strategy for the whole population, particularly in the most deprived areas.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or stroke in adults with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). DESIGN: Matched cohort study. SETTING: Population based, electronic primary healthcare databases before 31 December 2015 from four European countries: Italy (n=1 542 672), Netherlands (n=2 225 925), Spain (n=5 488 397), and UK (n=12 695 046). PARTICIPANTS: 120 795 adults with a recorded diagnosis of NAFLD or NASH and no other liver diseases, matched at time of NAFLD diagnosis (index date) by age, sex, practice site, and visit, recorded at six months before or after the date of diagnosis, with up to 100 patients without NAFLD or NASH in the same database. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome was incident fatal or non-fatal AMI and ischaemic or unspecified stroke. Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox models and pooled across databases by random effect meta-analyses. RESULTS: 120 795 patients with recorded NAFLD or NASH diagnoses were identified with mean follow-up 2.1-5.5 years. After adjustment for age and smoking the pooled hazard ratio for AMI was 1.17 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.30; 1035 events in participants with NAFLD or NASH, 67 823 in matched controls). In a group with more complete data on risk factors (86 098 NAFLD and 4 664 988 matched controls), the hazard ratio for AMI after adjustment for systolic blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, total cholesterol level, statin use, and hypertension was 1.01 (0.91 to 1.12; 747 events in participants with NAFLD or NASH, 37 462 in matched controls). After adjustment for age and smoking status the pooled hazard ratio for stroke was 1.18 (1.11 to 1.24; 2187 events in participants with NAFLD or NASH, 134 001 in matched controls). In the group with more complete data on risk factors, the hazard ratio for stroke was 1.04 (0.99 to 1.09; 1666 events in participants with NAFLD, 83 882 in matched controls) after further adjustment for type 2 diabetes, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol level, statin use, and hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnosis of NAFLD in current routine care of 17.7 million patient appears not to be associated with AMI or stroke risk after adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors. Cardiovascular risk assessment in adults with a diagnosis of NAFLD is important but should be done in the same way as for the general population.