Institute for Political Sciences

With widespread democratic backsliding globally, people’s support for democracy-eroding leaders is receiving overdue attention. But existing studies have difficulty disentangling contextual effects (such as who is in power at the time of the survey) from individual differences (like which party one supports and how strongly). Moreover, we lack evidence on the causal antecedents of these attitudes. We propose a novel survey experimental design to strip away the political context through hypothetical scenarios, allowing us to identify citizens’ differential support for democratic norms when their own party is in versus out of power. Our findings indicate a large degree of democratic hypocrisy among the American public, whose support for norm-eroding policies increases when their own party is in power, an effect further amplified by two indicators of polarization: strong expressive partisanship and threat perceived from the opposing party.

Abstract This article examines the rise of the ‘project class’ in Central and Eastern Europe, linking it to the emerging rural development agenda, driven principally by the demands of EU accession. The emphasis on ‘projects’ in rural development, the demand for local expertise and the mobilisation of social capital are, it is argued, contributing to a restructuring of local power and the emergence of a new ‘project class’. Drawing upon fieldwork in Hungary and the Czech Republic, this article considers the phenomenon and its potential impact within rural social formations.

Abstract The authors estimate gravity models using a large panel of bilateral trade flows across 61 countries between 1980 and 2003, which are applied as a benchmark for the integration of Central and South Eastern European countries with the euro area. They show that a careful examination of the fixed effects of the model is crucial for the proper interpretation of the results. The results suggest that trade integration between most new EU member states and the euro area is already relatively advanced, while the remaining Central and Eastern European countries have significant scope to strengthen trade links with the euro area.

Anthropogenic global warming is redistributing marine life and may threaten tropical benthic invertebrates with several potential extinction mechanisms. The net impact of climate change on geographical extinction risk nevertheless remains uncertain. Evidence of widespread climate-driven extinctions and of potentially unidentified mechanisms exists in the fossil record. We quantify organism extinction risk across thermal habitats, estimated by paleoclimate reconstructions, over the past 300 million years. Extinction patterns at seven known events of rapid global warming (hyperthermals) differ significantly from typical patterns, resembling those driven by global geometry under simulated global warming. As isotherms move poleward with warming, the interaction between the geometry of the globe and the temperature-latitude relationship causes an uneven loss of thermal habitat and a bimodal latitudinal distribution of extinctions. Genera with thermal optima warmer than ~21°C show raised extinction odds, while extinction odds continually increase for genera with optima below ~11°C. Genera preferring intermediate temperatures generally have no additional extinction risk during hyperthermals, except under extreme conditions as the end-Permian mass extinction. Widespread present-day climate-driven range shifts indicate that occupancy loss is already underway. Given the most-likely projections of modern warming, our model, validated by seven past hyperthermal events, indicates that sustained warming has the potential to annihilate cold-water habitat and its endemic species completely within centuries.

Représentativité des enquêtes en ligne à échantillons stratifiés: Alors que les enquêtes à échantillons nationaux en face-à-face sont considérées comme représentatives de l’ensemble de la population, les échantillons en ligne sont considérés comme biaisés, notamment en termes d’âge, de sexe et d’éducation. Pour éviter ce biais, les données peuvent être pondérées de façon à se rapprocher d’un échantillon représentatif. Dans le cas d’enquêtes en ligne, les femmes âgées ayant un faible niveau d’éducation reçoivent un poids très élevé et les jeunes gens ayant une bonne éducation un poids très faible. Plutôt que de pondérer les données, nous tirons un échantillon stratifié à partir de plus de 20.000 participants à un panel en ligne. De ce fait, les femmes âgées de niveau d’éducation relativement faible ont une très forte probabilité d’entrer dans l’échantillon, les jeunes gens avec une bonne éducation, une très faible. Pour obtenir un échantillon stratifié selon le sexe × âge × éducation, sans erreur de prise en compte, l’échantillon est limité à un âge allant jusqu’à 49 ans. Pour comparer ces données et celles d’une enquête face-à-face représentative, nous avons utilisé un ensemble de questions tirées de l’Enquête sociale allemande 2002. Nous comparons les résultats des deux études sur la base de plus de 1.100 cas, dont chacun est équivalent en termes d’âge, sexe et éducation. On montre que des échantillons stratifiés en ligne ne sont pas représentatifs de l’ensemble de la population.

The paper considers the relevance of leader to the context of the ceecs and, in particular, to Hungary. The main argument is that the leader approach represents one of the most likely paths for socio‐economic development. The theoretical approach of paper adopts political economy and actor network theory to conceptualize leader as a move from direct intervention towards a new indirect regime of market relations interpreting leader as participative redistribution. The paper analyses the major disparities that exist between conditions in the ceecs and the eu rurality and the consequences of post‐socialist transformation. It is argued that, in the ceec context, the strengthening of civil society, its institutions and their control (monitoring)over development system are necessary components of a leader ‐type approach so as to offset power of bureaucracy and the economic elite.

Purpose This exploratory, interdisciplinary, cross‐cultural study attempt to examine the hypothesis that in a country, where entrepreneurs have high status, individuals will describe themselves as more entrepreneurial, will exhibit greater risk‐taking tendency and more will be involved in entrepreneurial activity. Design/methodology/approach The study included MBA students in Israel, the USA and Hungary who were asked to compare the social status of entrepreneurs with that of other professionals, rate themselves on traits that were identified as characterizing successful entrepreneurs, and rate the risk they were willing to take to join a start‐up. Findings Results showed that Israelis perceived entrepreneurs as having higher social status than Americans and Hungarians. Israelis also demonstrated greater risk taking expressed in the readiness to leave a secure job to join a start‐up. Israelis and Americans rated themselves higher than Hungarians on initiative, love of challenge and independence, the three traits rated highest by actual entrepreneurs. Cautious attempt was made to relate these findings to the total entrepreneurial activity in the three countries and the percentage of adults in the population who start new businesses. Originality/value The study contributes to theory and resarch on entrepreneurship by demonstrating the potential inherent in a cross‐cultural, interdisciplinary perspective in general, and the connection between the social status of entrepreneurs and actual entrepreneurial activity in particular.

The transition to post-industrialism has generated a range of new tensions between welfare arrangements and labour market performance, which confront today's welfare states with new challenges for employment-friendly recalibration, such as flexicurity, activation and work-care conciliation. Hence, the question of whether, how and to what extent current welfare states are able to adapt to the conditions and needs of post-industrial labour markets has become a major issue in recent welfare state research. This article identifies and discusses key debates in this literature on the politics of employment-friendly reforms. It first focuses on the general capacity for reform in mature welfare states and then discusses regime-specific reform politics, since post-industrialism confronts different welfare regimes with very different challenges. For each regime, the article proposes a range of research frontiers and open debates which we consider particularly relevant and fruitful avenues for future theorizing and research.

This article analyses the rise of a new social formation, the project class which represents a recent complex societal and political change. It is argued that project proliferation along with reforms of the administrative structures, changes in the nature of developmental policies and the increasing importance of cultural and cognitive elements of territorial development are the driving forces behind the emergence of a new class. This article analyses the mediatory position of the new social class in the redistribution of public and particularly private development funds, and in the transfer of materials, ideas, knowledge and power. Special attention is given to the intellectual capital that provides legitimacy for the project class and to the flexible social and economic positioning by which the members of the new class create, use and consume intellectual and material products of the information society in order to be competitive on the markets of the project-based economy. The article apprehends the relationship between the emergence of the project class and the transformation of the local power structure. Finally, it demonstrates the challenges related to new forms of knowledge use associated with the emergence of the new social class.

After 568 AD the Avars settled in the Carpathian Basin and founded the Avar Qaganate that was an important power in Central Europe until the 9th century. Part of the Avar society was probably of Asian origin; however, the localisation of their homeland is hampered by the scarcity of historical and archaeological data. Here, we study mitogenome and Y chromosomal variability of twenty-six individuals, a number of them representing a well-characterised elite group buried at the centre of the Carpathian Basin more than a century after the Avar conquest. The studied group has maternal and paternal genetic affinities to several ancient and modern East-Central Asian populations. The majority of the mitochondrial DNA variability represents Asian haplogroups (C, D, F, M, R, Y and Z). The Y-STR variability of the analysed elite males belongs only to five lineages, three N-Tat with mostly Asian parallels and two Q haplotypes. The homogeneity of the Y chromosomes reveals paternal kinship as a cohesive force in the organisation of the Avar elite strata on both social and territorial level. Our results indicate that the Avar elite arrived in the Carpathian Basin as a group of families, and remained mostly endogamous for several generations after the conquest.

When countries face balance-of-payments crises, their policy responses vary widely. This paper argues that the choice between the two main options of internal adjustment (i.e. austerity and structural reforms) and external adjustment (i.e. exchange-rate devaluation) depends on how costly each of these strategies is for a country overall. While the choice of adjustment strategy is thus structurally determined, the level of political conflict associated with crisis management depends on both the national vulnerability profile and partisan interests. Moreover, irrespective of the adjustment strategy, all governments design the specific reforms in ways that shelter their own voters. Empirically, this paper uses qualitative case studies and survey data to examine the significant variation in crisis responses, crisis politics, and distributive outcomes of the 2008-10 global financial crisis in eight Eastern European countries. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the Eastern European experience for crisis politics in the Eurozone crisis.

Does globalization affect the demand-side of politics, and if so, how? This paper builds on new developments in trade theory to argue that globalization matters, but that its effects on individuals’ perceptions of labor market risk and policy preferences are more heterogenous than previous research has acknowledged. Globalization exposure increases risk perceptions and demands for social protection among low-skilled individuals, but decreases them among high-skilled individuals. This conditional effect is observationally distinct from classic trade models as well as arguments that deindustrialization or ideology predominantly drive such perceptions and preferences. Analyzing cross-national survey data from 16 European countries and focusing both on trade and offshoring, the empirical analyses support the prediction that exposure to globalization affects high- and low-skilled individuals differently, leading to variation in labor market risk perceptions and policy preferences.

Transylvania's ethnic mosaic is composed of Romanians, German Saxons and Hungarians. The ethnic groups of the Hungarian minority that settled in Romania show differences in dialects, customs and religious affiliations. In this study entire mtDNA control region sequences from 360 individuals of Hungarian ethnicity from two populations (the Csángó and the Székely), settled in the historical region of Transylvania in Romania, were generated and analyzed following high quality sequencing standards. Phylogenetic analyses were used for haplogroup determination, quasi-median network analyses were applied for the visualization of character conflicts, and median joining reconstructions were used for depicting haplotype structures. Affiliation of haplotypes to major west Eurasian haplogroups was confirmed using coding region SNPs. Gene flow between the two populations was low and biased towards a higher migration rate from the Csángó to the Székely than vice versa. Phylogeographic analyses revealed effects of genetic isolation within the Csángó population, which is, in its genetic structure, clearly different from the Székely population. The pronounced genetic divergence between the two populations is in sharp contrast to the expectation of high genetic similarity due to the close geographic proximity of their native homelands. The population data will be incorporated in the EMPOP database (http://www.empop.org).

Research on transitions has reached a crossroad. Should it be abandoned because the third wave of transitions to democracy has ended, or should it continue because so much remains unaccounted for regarding the third wave? This paper suggests that regime hybridity constitutes a widespread institutional setting resulting from incomplete transitions. Regime-hybridity is defined as a specific regime type in which “partial regimes” within the “political regime” are democratic while others are nondemocratic, although not necessarily authoritarian. Underlying the concept is the assumption that the “political regime” stretches beyond the institutions of the state to include civil society. It is at this level that the work on transitions can be connected to the research on the dynamics of economic exclusion in the context of rent economies. This paper develops a checklist for identifying “partial regimes” that constitute regime-hybridity and applies it to the case of Colombia to identify linkages between political transition and socioeconomic transformation.

Abstract This article looks at the evidence employed in the CORASON (the cognitive approach to rural sustainable development: the dynamics of expert and lay knowledge) research project of changing rural power relations in the context of sustainability and knowledge use in Europe. It explores what kinds of knowledge contribute to sustainable development in rural development projects and how they are created or empowered, according to the interest and capacity of the different actors involved. The article examines how actors interpret and negotiate the requirement of sustainability. It discusses how the idea and practice of sustainable development can build on local knowledge as a resource for generating activity and for commoditising local goods and service, looking at the potentials of sustainability projects for future rural development, the types of knowledge used in projects and their social sources, dynamics and social availability. It reviews the proliferating project form of management that locks actors into power relations connected to their capacity for knowledge use and discusses the pressure of urban demands on rural sustainability in the context of local autonomy. These issues are elaborated through a study of the interconnection of knowledge and power and the role of the actors in the creating and using knowledge. On the level of public policy, the authors identify the knowledge–power complex as an important factor of decision‐making in rural policy and develop a critique of rural policy for its inadequate attention to the interconnection between knowledge, power and interest.

In 2010-2012, new outpatient service locations were established in poor Hungarian micro-regions. We exploit this quasi-experiment to estimate the extent of substitution between outpatient and inpatient care. Fixed-effects Poisson models on individual-level panel data for years 2008-2015 show that the number of outpatient visits increased by 19% and the number of inpatient stays decreased by 1.6% as a result, driven by a marked reduction of potentially avoidable hospitalization (PAH) (5%). In our dynamic specification, PAH effects occur in the year after the treatment, whereas non-PAH only decreases with a multi-year lag. The instrumental variable estimates suggest that a one euro increase in outpatient care expenditures produces a 0.6 euro decrease in inpatient care expenditures. Our results (1) strengthen the claim that bringing outpatient care closer to a previously underserved population yields considerable health benefits, and (2) suggest that there is a strong substitution element between outpatient and inpatient care.

This study aims at uncovering how social capital at micro and macro levels contributes to the success of farmers’ co-operation and how imbalances between the different forms of social capital can hamper collective action among farmers. Using a case-study approach, we analyse two collective farmers marketing initiatives from Austria and Hungary, which have emerged in very diverse political and social environments and followed different development paths. Differences in the performance of these organizations can be partly traced back to variations in the contextual environment. However, the empirical data suggest that social capital plays an important role as well, since it is crucial for mobilizing the initial set of different forms of other capitals like natural, physical, financial and human capitals. The aim of this article is to understand the dynamics and impacts of different configurations of social capital and its contribution to the economic success of collective initiatives. Based on the empirical findings collective farmers marketing initiatives can deduct ways to consciously appraise and invest in social capital.

Although ideological polarization can create problems for governability and democratic stability, this article argues that it also has beneficial effects in new democracies. By clarifying the political alternatives, polarization creates strong links between parties and voters, and thereby instills accountability mechanisms that force parties to remain responsive to evolving voter preferences. A comparative historical analysis of six South American cases demonstrates that the vast differences in the quality of representation in the 1980s, immediately after many countries in the region returned to democracy, were rooted in an early bifurcation of party systems in the first half of the twentieth century: while prolonged periods of ideological conflict occurred in some countries during this period, polarization was aborted by various means in others. By showing that ideological moderation may help formal democracies survive, but that aborting conflict in the long run severely hampers key aspects of the quality of democracy, this study suggests a revision of conventional views regarding ideological polarization.

This paper takes an initial step toward a better understanding of the complex set of pressing problems that need to be addressed by the Eastern European nonprofit sectors and their supporters in the near future. It gives an overview of the main challenges and claims that different nonprofit sectors of the region are at different crossroads. It identifies a general policy crisis that is fueled by the lack of a comprehensive knowledge of the sector and clear political intentions of cooperating with it. In addition, the dependence on foreign funding may result in a sustainability crisis in several Eastern European countries. In the most developed part of the region, the main elements of the present crisis are the fiscal, economic, effectiveness, identity, and legitimacy problems, which have something in common with the challenges facing the much more mature nonprofit sectors of the developed world.

The article reveals how Hungarian parties expand their members’ participatory repertoires in intra-party democracy with the help of information and communication technology. By answering the question of how Hungarian parties use digital tools for their internal procedures the article adds to the literature on parties’ use of technology. To make visible the promises and boundaries of online political participation in a post-communist country the article relies on 26 semi-structured interviews with Hungarian politicians from 10 parties conducted in 2020. The findings indicate that top-down communication dominates Hungarian parties’ practices, and social media is highly popular and is used for both external and internal reasons.