Institute of Economics

We estimate a model of importers in Hungarian microdata and conduct counterfactual analysis to investigate the effect of imported inputs on productivity. We find that importing all input varieties would increase a firm’s revenue productivity by 22 percent, about one-half of which is due to imperfect substitution between foreign and domestic inputs. Foreign firms use imports more effectively and pay lower fixed import costs. We attribute one-quarter of Hungarian productivity growth during the 1993–2002 period to imported inputs. Simulations show that the productivity gain from a tariff cut is larger when the economy has many importers and many foreign firms. (JEL D24, F13, F14, L60)

BACKGROUND: Ongoing climate change might, through rising temperatures, alter allergenic pollen biology across the northern hemisphere. We aimed to analyse trends in pollen seasonality and pollen load and to establish whether there are specific climate-related links to any observed changes. METHODS: , and frost-free days among all 17 locations to ascertain significant correlations. FINDINGS: (r=0·48, p=0·05). Additionally, temporal increases in frost-free days per year were significantly correlated with increases in both pollen load (r=0·62, p=0·008) and pollen season duration (r=0·68, p=0·003) when averaged for all 17 locations. INTERPRETATION: ) might already be contributing to extended seasonal duration and increased pollen load for multiple aeroallergenic pollen taxa in diverse locations across the northern hemisphere. This study, done across multiple continents, highlights an important link between ongoing global warming and public health-one that could be exacerbated as temperatures continue to increase. FUNDING: None.

The study investigates the size of the hidden economy and related features, in post‐socialist countries. After dealing critically with the approach of Kaufmann and Kaliberda, a method based on household electricity consumption is used to estimate the ratio of the hidden economy to the official GDP in 20 countries. Following a uniform growth in the size of the hidden economy in all the countries at the beginning of their transition, stagnation or further increase was experienced in the CIS countries, while an explicit declining tendency could be seen in the remaining economies. Comparisons show that the ratio of the hidden economy in post‐socialist countries is significantly larger than in developed market economies. The paper analyses the relationships between the visible private economy, the advancement of reforms, corruption, and the size of the hidden economy.

Using many valid instrumental variables has the potential to improve efficiency but makes the usual inference procedures inaccurate. We give corrected standard errors, an extension of Bekker (1994) to nonnormal disturbances, that adjust for many instruments. We find that this adujstment is useful in empirical work, simulations, and in the asymptotic theory. Use of the corrected standard errors in t-ratios leads to an asymptotic approximation order that is the same when the number of instrumental variables grow as when the number of instruments is fixed. We also give a version of the Kleibergen (2002) weak instrument statistic that is robust to many instruments.

This paper adopts the stratification-standardization framework proposed by Allmendinger (1989) to analyze the effects of educational institutions and the organization of education on the inequality of opportunity and effectiveness of national education systems. The analyses are conducted on OECD countries participating in the Programme for International Student Asssessment (PISA) 2003 study (OECD, 2004c). The results indicate that educational stratification increases inequality of educational opportunity, while in general, standardization enhances equality. Stratification does not improve overall student performance, and the association between standardization and effectiveness is not straightforward. The most policy-relevant finding is that the early age of selection links closely with high inequality of opportunity.

Abstract This article considers the relationship between centralised, exogenous institutions and the embedded, endogenous institutions of rural governance in Europe through an examination the evaluation procedures of the European LEADER programme. LEADER is presented in the literature as progressive in terms of innovation and stakeholder engagement. Yet, while the planning and management of LEADER embraces heterogeneity and participation, programmatic evaluation is centralised and is held at arms length from the delivery organisations. The article reviews previous efforts to improve evaluation in LEADER and considers alternative strategies for evaluation, contrasting LEADER practice with participatory evaluation methodologies in the wider international context. Can evaluation in itself be valuable as a mode of social learning and hence a driver for endogenous development in rural communities in Europe? The article concludes by examining the challenges in producing a hybrid form of evaluation that accommodates both endogenous and exogenous values.

BACKGROUND: Considerable differences exist among the living donor Kidney Exchange Programmes (KEPs) that are in use and being built in Europe, contributing to a variation in the number of living donor transplants (Newsletter Transplant; International figures on donation and transplantation 2016). Efforts of European KEPs to exchange (best) practices and share approaches to address challenges have, however, been limited. METHODS: Experts from 23 European countries, collaborating on the European Network for Collaboration on Kidney Exchange Programmes Cooperation on Science and Technology Action, developed a questionnaire to collect detailed information on the functioning of all existing KEPs in Europe, as well as their opportunities and challenges. Following a comparative analysis, results were synthesized and interpreted by the same experts. RESULTS: The practices, opportunities and challenges reported by 17 European countries reveal that some of the 10 operating programs are mature, whereas others are in earlier stages of development. Over 1300 transplants were performed through existing KEPs up to the end of 2016, providing approximately 8% of their countries' living kidney donations in 2015. All countries report challenges to either initiating KEPs or increasing volumes. Some challenges are shared, whereas others differ because of differences in context (eg, country size, effectiveness of deceased donor program) and ethical and legal considerations (eg, regarding living donation as such, nonrelated donors, and altruistic donation). Transnational initiatives have started in Central Europe, Scandinavia, and Southern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: Exchange of best practices and shared advancement of national programs to address existing challenges, aided by transnational exchanges, may substantially improve access to the most (cost) effective treatment for the increasing number of patients suffering from kidney disease.

Significance Coexposure to airborne pollen enhances susceptibility to respiratory viral infections, regardless of the allergy status. We hypothesized this could be also true for SARS-CoV-2 infections. To investigate this, we tested for relationships between SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and pollen concentrations, along with humidity, temperature, population density, and lockdown effects. Our unique dataset derives from 130 sites in 31 countries and across five continents. We found that pollen, sometimes in synergy with humidity and temperature, explained, on average, 44% of the infection rate variability. Lockdown halved infection rates under similar pollen concentrations. As we cannot completely avoid pollen exposure, we suggest wide dissemination of pollen−virus coexposure information to encourage high-risk individuals to wear particle filter masks during high springtime pollen concentrations.

Aspiring to adopt a nonstatistical quantitative approach to safety assessment, this study implements a multiattribute decision-making tool to elicit knowledge from experts and formalize it into a set of weighted safety factors. The environment addressed is the construction site and the specific factors studied are those affecting safety due to the operation of tower cranes. Nineteen senior construction equipment and safety experts were interviewed and led through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to provide their assessments on the relative importance of safety factors obtained in an earlier study. The results accentuate the dominance of the crane operator and general superintendent on the site safety scene and play down the contribution of “classic” site hazards such as power lines. Quantitative measuring of safety, such as reflected in the weights obtained in this study, is important in communicating safety requirements and focusing the limited resources available for safety improvements. These factor weights are also deemed to be a vital component in the development of a comprehensive model that will allow the computation of safety indices for individual construction sites employing tower cranes. It is expected that the methodology can then be adopted for addressing other site safety issues as well.

The performance of the employees and productivity of each individual, in general, have been badly affected because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Organizational citizenship behavior is regarded as an interpretation of the performance of the employee which is essential to contribute more to the organization’s processes and success. Therefore, to increase the organizational effectiveness and achieve its goals, it is crucial to understand the factors affecting the organizational citizenship behavior of the employees. This study aims to examine the impact of perceived organizational support on organizational citizenship behavior with the mediating role of employee engagement and affective commitment. To collect the data for this study, a linear snowball sampling method was used, and 380 foreign employees working in different service companies in Hungary participated in the survey. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test the proposed hypothesis. The results of the study revealed that perceived organizational support positively associated with organizational citizenship behavior and this relationship is also strongly mediated by employee engagement. On the other hand, employee engagement and affective commitment pose a direct positive influence on organizational citizenship behavior. This study has theoretical and practical implications as it will provide a comprehensive framework to better understand the factors influencing the organizational citizenship behavior of the employees.

Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non-native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species arrive. Here, we developed a simulation model to understand and describe plant invasion at a continental scale, integrating repeated transport through trade pathways, unintentional release events and the population dynamics and local anthropogenic dispersal that drive subsequent spread. We used the model to simulate the invasion of Europe by common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a globally invasive plant that causes serious harm as an aeroallergen and crop weed. Simulations starting in 1950 accurately reproduced ragweed's current distribution, including the presence of records in climatically unsuitable areas as a result of repeated introduction. Furthermore, the model outputs were strongly correlated with spatial and temporal patterns of ragweed pollen concentrations, which are fully independent of the calibration data. The model suggests that recent trends for warmer summers and increased volumes of international trade have accelerated the ragweed invasion. For the latter, long distance dispersal because of trade within the invaded continent is highlighted as a key invasion process, in addition to import from the native range. Biosecurity simulations, whereby transport through trade pathways is halted, showed that effective control is only achieved by early action targeting all relevant pathways. We conclude that invasion models would benefit from integrating introduction processes (transport and release) with spread dynamics, to better represent propagule pressure from native sources as well as mechanisms for long-distance dispersal within invaded continents. Ultimately, such integration may facilitate better prediction of spatial and temporal variation in invasion risk and provide useful guidance for management strategies to reduce the impacts of invasion.

This paper gives a relatively simple, well behaved solution to the problem of many instruments in heteroskedastic data. Such settings are common in microeconometric applications where many instruments are used to improve efficiency and allowance for heteroskedasticity is generally important. The solution is a Fuller (1977) like estimator and standard errors that are robust to heteroskedasticity and many instruments. We show that the estimator has finite moments and high asymptotic efficiency in a range of cases. The standard errors are easy to compute, being like White's (1982), with additional terms that account for many instruments. They are consistent under standard, many instrument, and many weak instrument asymptotics. We find that the estimator is asymptotically as efficient as the limited-information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimator under many weak instruments. In Monte Carlo experiments, we find that the estimator performs as well as LIML or Fuller (1977) under homoskedasticity, and has much lower bias and dispersion under heteroskedasticity, in nearly all cases considered.

Abstract Our aim in this paper is twofold: to find whether FDI causes horizontal or vertical productivity spillovers to domestically‐owned Hungarian manufacturing firms, and to see if distance matters in spillovers. For this exercise we use a large panel of Hungarian firms and different panel models. Consistently with previous research, at the country level, we find positive vertical spillovers but no evidence of positive horizontal spillovers. By taking distance into consideration, however, we find positive horizontal spillovers for domestic firms close to foreign‐owned firms. By constructing spillover measures weighted by distance, we find similar patterns. Our results underline the importance of labour market rigidity and the local nature of knowledge in the case of horizontal spillovers.

Abstract The sustainable supply chain (SSC) has received significant attention worldwide in the last few years because it integrates sustainability dimensions into its process. Recent artificial intelligence (AI)‐based advancements in technology make it possible to overcome many problems associated with supply chain (SC) networks. The current study was performed to explore the role of AI in establishing an SSC. The research contribution in the field of AI and SSC was examined through a systematic literature review. A total of 353 articles were gathered from the Scopus database in the selected research field. A big data‐based approach, namely, structural topic modelling (STM), was applied to generate emerging thematic topics from shortlisted articles of AI in SSC. Moreover, using R package, a bibliometric analysis was conducted to examine the research trends in the field of AI in SSC. The research trends were then analysed, with generated thematic topics discussed. The proposed research framework can help researchers and practitioners to develop an SSC model using AI‐based techniques. Propositions for future research are given and implications are suggested.

This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.

Drug shortages have been identified as a public health problem in an increasing number of countries. This can negatively impact on the quality and efficiency of patient care, as well as contribute to increases in the cost of treatment and the workload of health care providers. Shortages also raise ethical and political issues. The scientific evidence on drug shortages is still scarce, but many lessons can be drawn from cross-country analyses. The objective of this study was to characterize, compare, and evaluate the current systemic measures and legislative and organizational frameworks aimed at preventing or mitigating drug shortages within health care systems across a range of European and Western Asian countries. The study design was retrospective, cross-sectional, descriptive, and observational. Information was gathered through a survey distributed among senior personnel from ministries of health, state medicines agencies, local health authorities, other health or pharmaceutical pricing and reimbursement authorities, health insurance companies and academic institutions, with knowledge of the pharmaceutical markets in the 28 countries studied. Our study found that formal definitions of drug shortages currently exist in only a few countries. The characteristics of drug shortages, including their assortment, duration, frequency, and dynamics, were found to be variable and sometimes difficult to assess. Numerous information hubs were identified. Providing public access to information on drug shortages to the maximum possible extent is a prerequisite for performing more advanced studies on the problem and identifying solutions. Imposing public service obligations, providing the formal possibility to prescribe unlicensed medicines, and temporary bans on parallel exports are widespread measures. A positive finding of our study was the identification of numerous bottom-up initiatives and organizational frameworks aimed at preventing or mitigating drug shortages. The experiences and lessons drawn from these initiatives should be carefully evaluated, monitored, and presented to a wider international audience for careful appraisal. To be able to find solutions to the problem of drug shortages, there is an urgent need to develop a set of agreed definitions for drug shortages, as well as methodologies for their evaluation and monitoring. This is being progressed.

The fashion industry's transition to Sustainable Sourcing (SS) is crucial to address some of the social and environmental problems faced by societies. While previous research has identified SS implementation barriers in the mainstream fashion industry, this article provides a methodical identification, validation, and prioritization of the 20 key SS implementation barriers for the global apparel and fashion-luxury sector. The paper employs a multi-phase research methodology to benchmark the SS implementation barriers in the apparel and fashion-luxury sector. These barriers were analysed through 154 responses received from global SS professionals by employing a survey questionnaire. Through an Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), the barriers were categorized into six unique dimensions. To establish their importance, an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) analysis further provided a global ranking of the identified barriers. The results of the study revealed that ‘Management, Government Support, and Infrastructure Barriers’ hold the most significant importance among all barrier dimensions, followed by ‘Material Barriers’, ‘Finance Barriers’, ‘Supplier Barriers’, ‘Certificates and Customer Perceptions’, and ‘Sustainable Packaging and Human Resource Barriers’. Furthermore, the results showed that specific barriers such as ‘Undersupply of Sustainable Raw Materials’, ‘Insufficient Commitment from Top Management’, and ‘Inadequate Awareness’ are the top three barriers according to global ranking. The research theoretically contributes by identifying and ranking the SS barriers that may hinder the efforts of the fashion sector to become more sustainable. This will facilitate researchers, sourcing professionals, fashion retailers, policymakers, and governing bodies in the formulation and deployment of dynamic strategies to overcome them and successfully implement SS practices.

This paper investigates the level, composition, and differences in the dynamics of revealed comparative advantage and trade specialization patterns of the 12 new member states (NMS‐12) as part of the enlarged European Union 27 countries (EU‐27). The NMS‐12 are classified into four country groups: the Baltic States, the CEFTA‐5, and the Mediterranean and the Balkan regions. The empirical analysis employs a regression framework, a duration analysis, Markov transition probability matrices, and mobility indices. Trade increases with the EU enlargement and so does revealed comparative advantage in agro‐food products. There are catching‐up difficulties, as indicated by revealed comparative advantage, in higher added‐value processed products. Le présent article examine le degré, la composition et les différences de la dynamique des avantages comparatifs révélés ainsi que les caractéristiques de la spécialisation du commerce des douze nouveaux pays membres (NPM‐12) de l'Union européenne élargie (UE–27). Les 12 nouveaux pays membres sont divisés en quatre groupes: les États baltiques, les cinq pays membres de l'ALECE, la région de la Méditerranée et la région des Balkans. L'analyse empirique utilise un modèle de régression, une analyse de durée, des matrices de probabilités des transitions (Markov) et des indices de mobilité. Les échanges augmentent avec l'élargissement de l'UE tout comme les avantages comparatifs révélés des produits agroalimentaires. On observe des difficultés de rattrapage, comme l'indique l'avantage comparatif révélé, dans le cas des produits transformés à forte valeur ajoutée.

We analyse the magnitude and the causes of the low formal employment rate of the Roma in Hungary between 1993 and 2007. The employment rate of the Roma dropped dramatically around 1990. The ethnic employment gap has been around 40 percentage points for both men and women and has remained remarkably stable. Differences in education are the most important factor behind the gap, the number of children is important for female employment and geographic differences play little role once education is controlled for. Conditional on employment, the gap in log earnings is 0.3, and half of it is explained by educational differences.

Recently, there has been a growing concern that increased aquaculture production poses an environmental threat to the species targeted in so‐called reduction fisheries, the main source for fishmeal. The argument is that increased aquaculture production leads to higher feed demand, and then presumably to higher fishing effort in these fisheries. In this paper we address whether aquaculture production threatens sustainability of such fisheries. First, we ask under which management regimes can increased demand pose a threat to the species in question? Second, we investigate what is the market for fishmeal; is fishmeal a unique product or is it part of the larger market for protein meals which includes Soyameal? This is an important issue since the market structure for fishmeal is a key factor in determining whether increased aquaculture production can affect fishmeal prices, and thereby increase fishing pressure in reduction fisheries.