Institute of Geophysics

Using inorganic carbon measurements from an international survey effort in the 1990s and a tracer-based separation technique, we estimate a global oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) sink for the period from 1800 to 1994 of 118 +/- 19 petagrams of carbon. The oceanic sink accounts for approximately 48% of the total fossil-fuel and cement-manufacturing emissions, implying that the terrestrial biosphere was a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere of about 39 +/- 28 petagrams of carbon for this period. The current fraction of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions stored in the ocean appears to be about one-third of the long-term potential.

The analysis of univariate or multivariate time series provides crucial information to describe, understand, and predict climatic variability. The discovery and implementation of a number of novel methods for extracting useful information from time series has recently revitalized this classical field of study. Considerable progress has also been made in interpreting the information so obtained in terms of dynamical systems theory. In this review we describe the connections between time series analysis and nonlinear dynamics, discuss signal‐to‐noise enhancement, and present some of the novel methods for spectral analysis. The various steps, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of these methods, are illustrated by their application to an important climatic time series, the Southern Oscillation Index. This index captures major features of interannual climate variability and is used extensively in its prediction. Regional and global sea surface temperature data sets are used to illustrate multivariate spectral methods. Open questions and further prospects conclude the review.

Motivated by the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 due to human activities since the Industrial Revolution, several international scientific research programs have analyzed the role of individual components of the Earth system in the global carbon cycle. Our knowledge of the carbon cycle within the oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, and the atmosphere is sufficiently extensive to permit us to conclude that although natural processes can potentially slow the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2, there is no natural "savior" waiting to assimilate all the anthropogenically produced CO2 in the coming century. Our knowledge is insufficient to describe the interactions between the components of the Earth system and the relationship between the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical and climatological processes. Overcoming this limitation requires a systems approach.

A gross Earth datum is a single measurable number describing some property of the whole Earth, such as mass, moment of interia, or the frequency of oscillation of some identified elastic-gravitational normal mode. We show how to determine whether a given finite set of gross Earth data can be used to specify an Earth structure uniquely except for fine-scale detail; and how to determine the shortest length scale which the given data can resolve at any particular depth. We apply the general theory to the linear problem of finding the depth-variation of a frequency-independent local Q from the observed quality factors Q of a finite number of normal modes. We also apply the theory to the non-linear problem of finding density vs depth from the total mass, moment, and normal-mode frequencies, in case the compressional and shear velocities are known.

A Monte Carlo inverse method has been used on the temperature profiles measured down through the Greenland Ice Core Project (GRIP) borehole, at the summit of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and the Dye 3 borehole 865 kilometers farther south. The result is a 50, 000-year-long temperature history at GRIP and a 7000-year history at Dye 3. The Last Glacial Maximum, the Climatic Optimum, the Medieval Warmth, the Little Ice Age, and a warm period at 1930 A.D. are resolved from the GRIP reconstruction with the amplitudes -23 kelvin, +2.5 kelvin, +1 kelvin, -1 kelvin, and +0.5 kelvin, respectively. The Dye 3 temperature is similar to the GRIP history but has an amplitude 1.5 times larger, indicating higher climatic variability there. The calculated terrestrial heat flow density from the GRIP inversion is 51.3 milliwatts per square meter.

Abstract A compilation of data on 78 elements in the nine groups of chondrites shows each to be isochemical with the exception of a few volatiles. With the exception of the most volatile elements, the groups have solar abundances to within a factor of two. The solar abundances and the chemical and physical properties of phases in the leastaltered chondrites indicate formation by grain agglomeration in the preplanetary nebula. Planets formed by the gradual growth of bodies in the solar nebula. Because there is no evidence for the formation of non-chondritic bodies in the nebula, the simplest model calls for the bulk compositions of the terrestrial planets to be chondritic. Mercury is enriched in metal, perhaps either because of high loss of silicates due to enhanced radial drag in the innermost part of the nebula, or because of enhanced accretion of metallic cores from disrupted asteroids. Chondritic compositions should be considered as boundary conditions for planetary models.

A gross datum of the Earth is a single measurable number describing some property of the whole Earth, such as mass, moment of inertia, or the frequency of oscillation of some identified elastic-gravitational normal mode. We prove that the collection of Earth models which yield the physically observed values of any independent set of gross Earth data is either empty or infinite dimensional. We exploit this very high degree of non-uniqueness in real geophysical inverse problems to generate computer programs which iteratively produce Earth models to fit given gross Earth data and satisfy other criteria. We describe techniques for exploring the collection of all Earth models which fit given gross Earth data. Finally, we apply the theory to the normal modes of elastic-gravitational oscillation of the Earth.

The detailed cross‐sectional shape of stress induced well bore breakouts has been studied using specially processed ultrasonic borehole televiewer data. We show breakout shapes for a variety of rock types and introduce a simple elastic failure model which explains many features of the observations. Both the observations and calculations indicate that the breakouts define relatively broad and flat curvilinear surfaces which enlarge the borehole in the direction of minimum horizontal compression. This work supports the hypothesis that breakouts result from shear failure of the rock where the compressive stress concentration around the well bore is greatest and that breakouts can be used to determine the orientation of the horizontal principal stresses in situ.

The 26 December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake initiated slowly, with small slip and a slow rupture speed for the first 40 to 60 seconds. Then the rupture expanded at a speed of about 2.5 kilometers per second toward the north northwest, extending 1200 to 1300 kilometers along the Andaman trough. Peak displacements reached approximately 15 meters along a 600-kilometer segment of the plate boundary offshore of northwestern Sumatra and the southern Nicobar islands. Slip was less in the northern 400 to 500 kilometers of the aftershock zone, and at least some slip in that region may have occurred on a time scale beyond the seismic band.

New structural, petrographic, and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar data constrain the kinematics of the ASRR (Ailao Shan‐Red River shear zone). In the XueLong Shan (XLS), geochronological data reveal Triassic, Early Tertiary, and Oligo‐Miocene thermal events. The latter event (33–26 Ma) corresponds to cooling during left‐lateral shear. In the FanSiPan (FSP) range, thrusting of the SaPa nappe, linked to left‐lateral deformation, and cooling of the FSP granite occurred at ≈35 Ma. Rapid cooling resumed at 25–29 Ma as a result of uplift within the transtensive ASRR. In the DayNuiConVoi (DNCV), foliation trends NW‐SE, but is deflected near large‐scale shear planes. Stretching lineation is nearly horizontal. On steep foliations, shear criteria indicate left‐lateral shear sense. Zones with flatter foliations show compatible shear senses. Petrographic data indicate decompression from ≈6.5 kbar during left‐lateral shear (temperatures >700°C). 40 Ar/ 39 Ar data imply rapid cooling from above 350°C to below 150°C between 25 and 22 Ma without diachronism along strike. Along the whole ASRR cooling histories show two main episodes: (1) rapid cooling from peak metamorphism during left‐lateral shear; (2) rapid cooling from greenschist conditions during right‐lateral reactivation of the ASRR. In the NW part of the ASRR (XLS, Diancang Shan), we link rapid cooling 1 to local denudations in a transpressive environment. In the SW part (Ailao Shan and DNCV), cooling 1 resulted from regional denudation by zipper‐like tectonics in a transtensive regime. The induced cooling diachronism observed in the Ailao Shan suggests left‐lateral rates of 4 to 5 cm/yr from 27 Ma until ≈17 Ma. DNCV rocks always stayed in a transtensive regime and do not show cooling diachronism. The similarities of deformation kinematics along the ASRR and in the South China Sea confirms the causal link between continental strike‐slip faulting and marginal basin opening.

Magnetospheric substorms explosively release solar wind energy previously stored in Earth's magnetotail, encompassing the entire magnetosphere and producing spectacular auroral displays. It has been unclear whether a substorm is triggered by a disruption of the electrical current flowing across the near-Earth magnetotail, at approximately 10 R(E) (R(E): Earth radius, or 6374 kilometers), or by the process of magnetic reconnection typically seen farther out in the magnetotail, at approximately 20 to 30 R(E). We report on simultaneous measurements in the magnetotail at multiple distances, at the time of substorm onset. Reconnection was observed at 20 R(E), at least 1.5 minutes before auroral intensification, at least 2 minutes before substorm expansion, and about 3 minutes before near-Earth current disruption. These results demonstrate that substorms are likely initiated by tail reconnection.

New finite‐frequency tomographic images of S ‐wave velocity confirm the existence of deep mantle plumes below a large number of known hot spots. We compare S ‐anomaly images with an updated P ‐anomaly model. Deep mantle plumes are present beneath Ascension, Azores, Canary, Cape Verde, Cook Island, Crozet, Easter, Kerguelen, Hawaii, Samoa, and Tahiti. Afar, Atlantic Ridge, Bouvet(Shona), Cocos/Keeling, Louisville, and Reunion are shown to originate at least below the upper mantle if not much deeper. Plumes that reach only to midmantle are present beneath Bowie, Hainan, Eastern Australia, and Juan Fernandez; these plumes may have tails too thin to observe in the lowermost mantle, but the images are also consistent with an interpretation as “dying plumes” that have exhausted their source region. In the tomographic images, only the Eifel and Seychelles plumes are unambiguously confined to the upper mantle. Starting plumes are visible in the lowermost mantle beneath South of Java, East of Solomon, and in the Coral Sea. All imaged plumes are wide and fail to show plumeheads, suggesting a very weakly temperature‐dependent viscosity for lower mantle minerals, and/or compositional variations. The S ‐wave velocity images show several minor differences with respect to the earlier P ‐wave results, including plume conduits that extend down to the core‐mantle boundary beneath Cape Verde, Cook Island, and Kerguelen. A more substantial disagreement between P ‐wave and S ‐wave images reopens the question on the depth extent of the Iceland plume. We suggest that a pulsating behavior of the plume may explain the shape of the conduit beneath Iceland.

Thermospheric wind data obtained from the Atmosphere Explorer E and Dynamics Explorer 2 satellites have been combined with wind data for the lower and upper thermosphere from ground‐based incoherent scatter radar and Fabry‐Perot optical interferometers to generate a revision (HWM90) of the HWM87 empirical model and extend its applicability to 100 km. Comparison of the various data sets with the aid of the model shows in general remarkable agreement, particularly at mid and low latitudes. The ground‐based data allow modeling of seasonal/diurnal variations, which are most distinct at mid latitudes. While solar activity variations are now included, they are found to be small and not always very clearly delineated by the current data. They are most obvious at the higher latitudes. The model describes the transition from predominately diurnal variations in the upper thermosphere to semidiurnal variations in the lower thermosphere and a transition from summer to winter flow above 140 km to winter to summer flow below. Significant altitude gradients in the wind are found to extend to 300 km at some local times and pose complications for interpretation of Fabry‐Perot observations.

We test the concept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms of the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the cumulative seismic strain release increases as a power law time to failure before the final event. Furthermore, the region of correlated seismicity predicted by this model is much greater than would be predicted from simple elastodynamic interactions. We present a systematic procedure to test for the accelerating seismicity predicted by the critical point model and to identify the region approaching criticality, based on a comparison between the observed cumulative energy (Benioff strain) release and the power law behavior predicted by theory. This method is used to find the critical region before all earthquakes along the San Andreas system since 1950 with M ≥6.5. The statistical significance of our results is assessed by performing the same procedure on a large number of randomly generated synthetic catalogs. The null hypothesis, that the observed acceleration in all these earthquakes could result from spurious patterns generated by our procedure in purely random catalogs, is rejected with 99.5% confidence. An empirical relation between the logarithm of the critical region radius ( R ) and the magnitude of the final event ( M ) is found, such that log R ∝0.5 M , suggesting that the largest probable event in a given region scales with the size of the regional fault network.

A R Y W e analyse statistically the long-term properties of several instrumental earthquake catalogues. Complete catalogues exhibit both short-and long-term clustering for earthquakes of all depth ranges. After accounting for the effect of short-term clustering, we find that in residual (declustered) catalogues, long-term clustering, not periodicity, characterizes the occurrence of all earthquakes-shallow, intermediate, and deep. T h e degree of clustering in residual catalogues is the same for earthquakes in different depth ranges. Circumstantial evidence indicates that the long-term v,ariation of seismicity is governed by a power-law temporal distribution; as in short-term clustering, it is scale invariant. T h e fractal dimension of an earthquake set on the time axis is of the order of 0.8-0.9. Therefore, mainshock occurrence is closer t o a stationary Poisson process than standard aftershock sequences of shallow earthquakes.

The role of naturally varying vegetation in influencing the climate variability in the West African Sahel is explored in a coupled atmosphere-land-vegetation model. The Sahel rainfall variability is influenced by sea-surface temperature variations in the oceans. Land-surface feedback is found to increase this variability both on interannual and interdecadal time scales. Interactive vegetation enhances the interdecadal variation substantially but can reduce year-to-year variability because of a phase lag introduced by the relatively slow vegetation adjustment time. Variations in vegetation accompany the changes in rainfall, in particular the multidecadal drying trend from the 1950s to the 1980s.

Understanding ancient climate changes is hampered by the inability to disentangle trends in ocean temperature from trends in continental ice volume. We used carbonate "clumped" isotope paleothermometry to constrain ocean temperatures, and thereby estimate ice volumes, through the Late Ordovician-Early Silurian glaciation. We find tropical ocean temperatures of 32° to 37°C except for short-lived cooling by ~5°C during the final Ordovician stage. Evidence for ice sheets spans much of the study interval, but the cooling pulse coincided with a glacial maximum during which ice volumes likely equaled or exceeded those of the last (Pleistocene) glacial maximum. This cooling also coincided with a large perturbation of the carbon cycle and the Late Ordovician mass extinction.

On the basis of synchronization of three carbon-14 (14C)-dated lacustrine sequences from Sweden with tree ring and ice core records, the absolute age of the Younger Dryas-Preboreal climatic shift was determined to be 11,450 to 11,390 +/- 80 years before the present. A 150-year-long cooling in the early Preboreal, associated with rising Delta14C values, is evident in all records and indicates an ocean ventilation change. This cooling is similar to earlier deglacial coolings, and box-model calculations suggest that they all may have been the result of increased freshwater forcing that inhibited the strength of the North Atlantic heat conveyor, although the Younger Dryas may have begun as an anomalous meltwater event.

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850-2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

The long-favored paradigm for the development of continental crust is one of progressive growth beginning at approximately 4 billion years ago (Ga). To test this hypothesis, we measured initial 176Hf/177Hf values of 4.01- to 4.37-Ga detrital zircons from Jack Hills, Western Australia. epsilonHf (deviations of 176Hf/177Hf from bulk Earth in parts per 10(4)) values show large positive and negative deviations from those of the bulk Earth. Negative values indicate the development of a Lu/Hf reservoir that is consistent with the formation of continental crust (Lu/Hf approximately 0.01), perhaps as early as 4.5 Ga. Positive epsilon(Hf) deviations require early and likely widespread depletion of the upper mantle. These results support the view that continental crust had formed by 4.4 to 4.5 Ga and was rapidly recycled into the mantle.