Institute of History

This paper describes the development and validation of a spatio-temporal model for human-caused wildfire occurrence prediction at a regional scale. The study area is the 8028-km2 region of Madrid, located in central Spain, where more than 90% of wildfires are caused by humans. We construct a logistic generalised additive model to estimate daily fire ignition risk at a 1-km2 grid spatial resolution. Spatially referenced socioeconomic and weather variables appear as covariates in the model. Spatial and temporal effects are also included. The variables in the model were selected using an iterative approach, which we describe. We use the model to predict the expected number of fires in our study area during the 2002–05 period, by aggregating the estimated probabilities over space–time scales of interest. The estimated partial effects of the presence of railways, roads, and wildland–urban interface in forest areas were highly significant, as were the observed daily maximum temperature and precipitation.

Abstract. The use of documentary evidence to investigate past climatic trends and events has become a recognised approach in recent decades. This contribution presents the state of the art in its application to droughts. The range of documentary evidence is very wide, including general annals, chronicles, memoirs and diaries kept by missionaries, travellers and those specifically interested in the weather; records kept by administrators tasked with keeping accounts and other financial and economic records; legal-administrative evidence; religious sources; letters; songs; newspapers and journals; pictographic evidence; chronograms; epigraphic evidence; early instrumental observations; society commentaries; and compilations and books. These are available from many parts of the world. This variety of documentary information is evaluated with respect to the reconstruction of hydroclimatic conditions (precipitation, drought frequency and drought indices). Documentary-based drought reconstructions are then addressed in terms of long-term spatio-temporal fluctuations, major drought events, relationships with external forcing and large-scale climate drivers, socio-economic impacts and human responses. Documentary-based drought series are also considered from the viewpoint of spatio-temporal variability for certain continents, and their employment together with hydroclimate reconstructions from other proxies (in particular tree rings) is discussed. Finally, conclusions are drawn, and challenges for the future use of documentary evidence in the study of droughts are presented.

Alterations of the short arm of chromosome 1 are recurrently found in cytogenetic analysis of malignant gliomas, and deletions of 1p36-p32 region characterize at least the higher-grade tumors, glioblastoma multiforme. Molecular analysis of tumor-derived and normal genomic DNA from 57 cases of gliomas, using a panel of chromosome 1-specific DNA probes showed LOH in 16 tumors. Allelic losses on 1p were primarily restricted to glioblastoma multiforme (2/11) and to tumors with a major oligodendroglial component: grade II oligodendrogliomas (6/6), grade III anaplastic oligodendrogliomas (5/6) and grade II-III mixed oligo-astrocytomas (2/3). Losses for 1q markers were detected in only 1 tumor (glioblastoma multiforme). Our data suggest that anomalies of 1p primarily characterize oligodendrogliomas, whereas they are rare events in astrocytic tumors and indicate that a tumor-suppressor gene on 1p36-p32 is involved in the development of brain tumors with oligodendroglial differentiation.

Ancient DNA (aDNA) research involves invasive and destructive sampling procedures that are often incompatible with anthropological, anatomical, and bioarcheological analyses requiring intact skeletal remains. The osseous labyrinth inside the petrous bone has been shown to yield higher amounts of endogenous DNA than any other skeletal element; however, accessing this labyrinth in cases of a complete or reconstructed skull involves causing major structural damage to the cranial vault or base. Here, we describe a novel cranial base drilling method (CBDM) for accessing the osseous labyrinth from the cranial base that prevents damaging the surrounding cranial features, making it highly complementary to morphological analyses. We assessed this method by comparing the aDNA results from one petrous bone processed using our novel method to its pair, which was processed using established protocols for sampling disarticulated petrous bones. We show a decrease in endogenous DNA and molecular copy numbers when the drilling method is used; however, we also show that this method produces more endogenous DNA and higher copy numbers than any postcranial bone. Our results demonstrate that this minimally-invasive method reduces the loss of genetic data associated with the use of other skeletal elements and enables the combined craniometric and genetic study of individuals with archeological, cultural, and evolutionary value.

Museum revolutions: how museums change and are changed, edited by Simon J. Knell, Suzanne MacLead and Sheila Watson, Abingdon, Routledge, 2007, 385 pp., 61 figures, 3 tables, £85.00 (hardback), ISB...

Patrick K. O'Brien, Leandro Prados, De La Escosura, Agricultural Productivity and European Industrialization, 1890-1980, The Economic History Review, New Series, Vol. 45, No. 3, European Special Issue (Aug., 1992), pp. 514-536

Abstract From ad 567–568, at the onset of the Avar period, populations from the Eurasian Steppe settled in the Carpathian Basin for approximately 250 years 1 . Extensive sampling for archaeogenomics (424 individuals) and isotopes, combined with archaeological, anthropological and historical contextualization of four Avar-period cemeteries, allowed for a detailed description of the genomic structure of these communities and their kinship and social practices. We present a set of large pedigrees, reconstructed using ancient DNA, spanning nine generations and comprising around 300 individuals. We uncover a strict patrilineal kinship system, in which patrilocality and female exogamy were the norm and multiple reproductive partnering and levirate unions were common. The absence of consanguinity indicates that this society maintained a detailed memory of ancestry over generations. These kinship practices correspond with previous evidence from historical sources and anthropological research on Eurasian Steppe societies 2 . Network analyses of identity-by-descent DNA connections suggest that social cohesion between communities was maintained via female exogamy. Finally, despite the absence of major ancestry shifts, the level of resolution of our analyses allowed us to detect genetic discontinuity caused by the replacement of a community at one of the sites. This was paralleled with changes in the archaeological record and was probably a result of local political realignment.

Dilemmas of humanitarian aid in the twentieth century is a comprehensive historical account of humanitarianism from the mid-nineteenth century to the 2000s. It situates developments in international aid, assistance and relief in various parts of the world within larger, enduring themes. As the editor, Johannes Paulmann, underlines, ‘some of the dilemmas of modern humanitarianism have been inherent in humanitarian practice for more than a century’ (p. 3). The contributors to the volume focus on interconnected turning-points in the history of humanitarianism. Matthias Schulz and Daniel Maul detail the beginnings of aid internationalism, focusing on the ICRC and the American Friends Service Committee, from the late nineteenth century to the first two decades of the twentieth. They argue that the emergent humanitarianism ‘undermined the sole authority of the state in international relations’ (p. 61). Nevertheless, as Alain Guilloux remarks, these new forms of assistance were ‘integrated with military health services and firmly entrenched in nationalistic values’ (p. 401).

This article offers a comparative analysis of the personal profiling capabilities of the two most important free citation‐based academic search engines, namely, M icrosoft Academic Search ( MAS ) and G oogle Scholar Citations ( GSC ). Author profiles can be useful for evaluation purposes once the advantages and the shortcomings of these services are described and taken into consideration. In total, 771 personal profiles appearing in both the MAS and the GSC databases were analyzed. Results show that the GSC profiles include more documents and citations than those in MAS but with a strong bias toward the information and computing sciences, whereas the MAS profiles are disciplinarily better balanced. MAS shows technical problems such as a higher number of duplicated profiles and a lower updating rate than GSC . It is concluded that both services could be used for evaluation proposes only if they are applied along with other citation indices as a way to supplement that information.

After 568 AD the Avars settled in the Carpathian Basin and founded the Avar Qaganate that was an important power in Central Europe until the 9th century. Part of the Avar society was probably of Asian origin; however, the localisation of their homeland is hampered by the scarcity of historical and archaeological data. Here, we study mitogenome and Y chromosomal variability of twenty-six individuals, a number of them representing a well-characterised elite group buried at the centre of the Carpathian Basin more than a century after the Avar conquest. The studied group has maternal and paternal genetic affinities to several ancient and modern East-Central Asian populations. The majority of the mitochondrial DNA variability represents Asian haplogroups (C, D, F, M, R, Y and Z). The Y-STR variability of the analysed elite males belongs only to five lineages, three N-Tat with mostly Asian parallels and two Q haplotypes. The homogeneity of the Y chromosomes reveals paternal kinship as a cohesive force in the organisation of the Avar elite strata on both social and territorial level. Our results indicate that the Avar elite arrived in the Carpathian Basin as a group of families, and remained mostly endogamous for several generations after the conquest.

Summary The rheological characteristics, microstructure and thermal stability of meat emulsions, made with two levels of fat (7.6% and 20.3%) and prepared from either fresh meat or meat subjected to one or three freeze‐thaw cycles, were measured. Lower fat contents were accompanied by a significant reduction in the binding property, shear force and hardness of the products. Both low fat and use of freeze‐thawed meat produced structures with a less dense matrix, freeze‐thawing altered the microstructure of the meat sausages and reduced shear force, hardness, chewiness and thermal stability. These effects were particularly apparent in the higher‐fat product.

Summary The extraction of silver has traditionally been considered as one of the main incentives for the Phoenician expansion throughout the M editerranean and their settlement in I beria. In this paper, we approach the organization of silver production in I beria during the E arly I ron A ge through the study of the evidence of production currently available and the development of L ead I sotope A nalysis ( LIA ). Previous results ( H unt 2003; S tos G ale 2001; K assianidou 1992) are considered in the light of new data. The extraction of silver from complex minerals noticeably intensifies in south‐west I beria. Imports of exogenous lead, needed for the extraction of silver from these complex minerals, are evident. Supplies of lead come in from other regions of I beria, such as G ádor, C artagena/ M azarrón, L inares or even the mining district of M olar‐ B elmunt‐ F alset ( MBF ) in C atalonia. This picture reveals that the organization of silver production was much more complex than initially thought, with the articulation of an exchange network of raw materials at a macro‐territorial scale embracing almost all I beria. The socioeconomic implications that control of these networks of lead distribution could have had are also discussed.

The ability of metrics to represent complex information about research in an accessible format has previously been overlooked in preference to debate about their shortcomings as research evaluation tools. Here, we argue that bibliometrics have the potential to widen scientific participation by allowing non-academic stakeholders to access scientific decision making, thereby increasing the democratisation of science. Government policies from 3 countries (UK, Australia and Spain) are reviewed. Each country outlines a commitment to the democratisation of science for one set of policies whilst ignoring this commitment when developing parallel research evaluation policies. We propose a change in dialogue from whether bibliometrics should be used to how they should be used in future evaluations. Future research policies should take advantage of bibliometrics to foster greater democratisation of research to create more socially-reflexive evaluation systems.

Using data compiled for the SCImago Institutions Ranking, we look at whether the subject area type an institution (university or research‐focused institution) belongs to (in terms of the fields researched) has an influence on its ranking position. We used latent class analysis to categorize institutions based on their publications in certain subject areas. Even though this categorization does not relate directly to scientific performance, our results show that it exercises an important influence on the outcome of a performance measurement: Certain subject area types of institutions have an advantage in the ranking positions when compared with others. This advantage manifests itself not only when performance is measured with an indicator that is not field‐normalized but also for indicators that are field‐normalized.

BACKGROUND: Ropivacaine, a new amide local anesthetic agent chemically related to bupivacaine, is able to induce early after depolarizations in isolated cardiac preparations. The underlying mechanism by which ropivacaine induces this effect has not been explored, but it is likely to involve K+ channel block. METHODS: Cloned human cardiac K+ channels (hKv1.5) were stably transfected in Ltk cells, and the effects of ropivacaine on the expressed hKv1.5 currents were assessed using the whole-cell configuration of the patch-clamp technique. RESULTS: Ropivacaine (100 microM) did not modify the initial activation time course of the current, but induced a fast subsequent decline to a lower steady-state current level with a time constant of 12.2 +/- 0.6 ms. Ropivacaine inhibited hKv1.5 with an apparent KD of 80 +/- 4 microM. Block displayed an intrinsic voltage-dependent, consistent with an electrical distance for the binding site of 0.153 +/- 0.007 (n = 6) (from the cytoplasmic side). Ropivacaine reduced the tail current amplitude recorded at -40 mV, and slowed the deactivation time course, resulting in a "crossover" phenomenon when control and ropivacaine tail currents were superimposed. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that: (1) ropivacaine is an open channel blocker of hKv1.5; (2) binding occurs in the internal mouth of the ion pore; and (3) unbinding is required before the channel can close. These effects explain the ropivacaine availability of induction early after depolarizations and could be clinically relevant.

Twitter is used by a substantial minority of the populations of many countries to share short messages, sometimes including images. Nevertheless, despite some research into specific images, such as selfies, and a few news stories about specific tweeted photographs, little is known about the types of images that are routinely shared. In response, this article reports a content analysis of random samples of 800 images tweeted from the UK or USA during a week at the end of 2014. Although most images were photographs, a substantial minority were hybrid or layered image forms: phone screenshots, collages, captioned pictures, and pictures of text messages. About half were primarily of one or more people, including 10% that were selfies, but a wide variety of other things were also pictured. Some of the images were for advertising or to share a joke but in most cases the purpose of the tweet seemed to be to share the minutiae of daily lives, performing the function of chat or gossip, sometimes in innovative ways.

Abstract. Extreme droughts are weather phenomena of considerable importance, involving significant environmental and societal impacts. While those that have occurred in the comparatively recent period of instrumental measurement are identified and dated on the basis of systematic, machine-standardized meteorological and hydrological observations, droughts that took place in the pre-instrumental period are usually described only through the medium of documentary evidence. The extreme drought of 1842 in Europe presents a case in which information from documentary data can be combined with systematic instrumental observations. Seasonal, gridded European precipitation totals are used herein to describe general DJF, MAM, and JJA precipitation patterns. Annual variations in monthly temperatures and precipitation at individual stations are expressed with respect to a 1961–1990 reference period, supplemented by calculation of selected drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI; and Palmer Z index). The mean circulation patterns during the driest months are elucidated by means of sea-level pressure (SLP) maps, the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), and the Central European Zonal Index (CEZI). Generally drier patterns in 1842 prevailed in January–February and at various intensities between April and August. The driest patterns in 1842 occurred in a broad zonal belt extending from France to eastern central Europe. A range of documentary data is used to describe the peculiarities of agricultural, hydrological, and socio-economic droughts, with particular attention to environmental and societal impacts and human responses to them. Although overall grain yields were not very strongly influenced, a particularly bad hay harvest, no aftermath (hay from a second cut), and low potato yields led to severe problems, especially for those who raised cattle. Finally, the 1842 drought is discussed in terms of long-term drought variability, European tree-ring-based scPDSI (self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index) reconstruction, and the broader context of societal impacts.

The authors use the Migration between Africa and Europe (MAFE) project data to examine the incidence and duration of child-parent separations and the determinants of child-parent reunification among Senegalese migrants. Their findings indicate that approximately one-sixth of the Senegalese children in the sample were separated from their parents due to parental migration to Europe. These separations are relatively long, especially if the absent parent is the father. Reunification of Senegalese migrant parents with their children is infrequent, both in Senegal and in Europe. However, the location where reunification occurs is important, as it is associated with markedly different family types. Parents who end separations by returning to Senegal belong to families that clearly depart from the Western nuclear model, whereas Senegalese families in which parents decided to bring their children to Europe are closer to Western family arrangements.

ABSTRACT The use of fire and, consequently, its severity and incidence on the environment have grown steadily during the last millennia throughout the Mediterranean. This issue can be assessed in several mountain ranges of central Iberia where changes in the management policy on anthropic activities and exploitation of high‐mountain environments have promoted a remarkable increase on fire frequency. Our research focuses on fire dynamics throughout the last 3,000 years from three peat bog charcoal records of the Gredos range (central Iberia). Our aim is to reconstruct past fire regimes according to forest vegetation typology ( Castanea sativa , Pinus pinaster , and Pinus sylvestris ). Charcoal influx shows low values between 3,140 and 1,800 cal. year bp when forests were relatively dense in both high and mid‐mountain areas. Fire appeared synchronous between 1,800 and 1,700 cal. year bp for Lanzahíta and Serranillos and around 1,400–1,240 cal. year bp for the three sites, suggesting anthropogenic fire control between the Late Roman and Visigothic periods that can be related to the cultivation of olive trees in the valleys and a greater human impact in high‐mountain areas. By contrast, during the Muslim period (1,240–850 cal. year bp ), fire dynamics becomes asynchronous. Later, fires turn again coeval in the Gredos range during the Christian period (850–500 cal. year bp ) and can be also correlated with drought phases during the Late Medieval Warm Episode. In short, our study demonstrates that fire activity has been enormously variable during the late Holocene in response to both short‐term and long‐term regional and global climate, vegetation dynamics, and land use changes. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Ochre is the common archaeological term for prehistoric pigments. It is applied to a range of uses, from ritual burials to cave art to medications. While a substantial number of Palaeolithic paint mining pits have been identified across Europe, the link between ochre use and provenance, and their antiquity, has never yet been identified. Here we characterise the mineralogical signature of core-shell processed ochre from the Palaeolithic paint mining pits near Lovas in Hungary, using a novel integration of petrographic and mineralogical techniques. We present the first evidence for core-shell processed, natural pigment that was prepared by prehistoric people from hematitic red ochre. This involved combining the darker red outer shell with the less intensely coloured core to efficiently produce an economical, yet still strongly coloured, paint. We demonstrate the antiquity of the site as having operated between 14-13 kcal BP, during the Epigravettian period. This is based on new radiocarbon dating of bone artefacts associated with the quarry site. The dating results indicate the site to be the oldest known evidence for core-shell pigment processing. We show that the ochre mined at Lovas was exported from the site based on its characteristic signature at other archaeological sites in the region. Our discovery not only provides a methodological framework for future characterisation of ochre pigments, but also provides the earliest known evidence for "value-adding" of products for trade.