Institute of Industrial Economics

Though more than 100 countries have adopted gender quotas, the effects of these reforms on women's political leadership are largely unknown. We exploit a natural experiment—a 50–50 quota imposed by the national board of the Swedish Social Democratic Party on 290 municipal branches—to examine quotas’ influence on women's selection to, and survival in, top political posts. We find that those municipalities where the quota had a larger impact became more likely to select (but not reappoint) female leaders. Extending this analysis, we show that the quota increased the number of women perceived as qualified for these positions. Our findings support the notion that quotas can have an acceleration effect on women's representation in leadership positions, particularly when they augment the pool of female candidates for these posts. These results help dispel the myth that quotas trade short-term gains in women's descriptive representation for long-term exclusion from political power.

BACKGROUND: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) has estimated the neurological benefits of reductions in prenatal methylmercury (MeHg) exposure in past assessments of rules controlling mercury (Hg) emissions. A growing body of evidence suggests that MeHg exposure can also lead to increased risks of adverse cardiovascular impacts in exposed populations. DATA EXTRACTION: The U.S. EPA assembled the authors of this article to participate in a workshop, where we reviewed the current science concerning cardiovascular health effects of MeHg exposure via fish and seafood consumption and provided recommendations concerning whether cardiovascular health effects should be included in future Hg regulatory impact analyses. DATA SYNTHESIS: We found the body of evidence exploring the link between MeHg and acute myocardial infarction (MI) to be sufficiently strong to support its inclusion in future benefits analyses, based both on direct epidemiological evidence of an MeHg-MI link and on MeHg's association with intermediary impacts that contribute to MI risk. Although additional research in this area would be beneficial to further clarify key characteristics of this relationship and the biological mechanisms that underlie it, we consider the current epidemiological literature sufficiently robust to support the development of a dose- response function. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend the development of a dose- response function relating MeHg exposures with MIs for use in regulatory benefits analyses of future rules targeting Hg air emissions.

The paper is devoted to identifying the level of social safety of society, taking into account the indicators of shadow economy, and developing its strategic scenarios as a component of sustainable development of Ukraine by 2030. The authors used the modern methods of normalisation, threshold vector determination, and dynamic weight coefficients in order to identify the level of social safety of society. The authors developed the structure and a list of indicators considering three components of social safety: The standard of living, the demographic component, and the quality of life. This method allows determining the list and severity of threats, comparing the dynamics of integral indices with integral thresholds in one scale, identifying the state of security, and defining strategic goals and strategies. The suggested approach is universal and can be used by any country, region, economic activity, or business to develop evidence-based medium-to-long-term sustainable development scenarios.

Despite the fact that a comprehensive analysis of digitalization processes in the EU member states has been carried out, the impact of a country’s digitalization level on the risks of poverty and social exclusion requires further investigation. The purpose of the paper is to verify a hypothesis that a higher level of national digitalization provides positive trends in reducing the risks of poverty and social exclusion for the population. The Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) was used to evaluate the digitalization levels of the EU countries. The indicator “People at risk of poverty or social exclusion” (AROPE) was applied to estimate the poverty level. As the main research methods, the authors used a comparative and correlation analysis with respect to the above-mentioned indicators, as well as the Monte Carlo method in order to evaluate the probability of a change in the indicator “population at risk of poverty or social exclusion” in 2021. The EU countries with higher digitalization levels have a lower percentage of the population at risk of poverty and social exclusion. However, a higher digitalization level of the EU member states does not provide an accelerated risk reduction of poverty and social exclusion. Statistical calculations with respect to the entire population of these countries mainly indicate reverse processes. At the same time, a further reduction of poverty and social exclusion level is less probable in the countries with a higher level of digitalization. For relatively poor segments of the population (the 1st and 2nd quintiles by income) in the EU member states, the level of digitalization does not play a significant role. For relatively wealthy segments of the population (the 3rd and 4th quintiles by income) the authors noticed a pattern: the higher the level of digitalization is, the lower the risk of poverty and social exclusion becomes. A pairwise comparison of countries with initially similar AROPE values showed that in most cases (3 out of 5), the countries with higher levels of digitalization showed a more significant reduction in poverty and social exclusion. However, the probability of further positive changes in this area is higher for the countries with a lower level of digitalization.

This article reports results from an experiment studying how FINES, LENIENCY, and REWARDS for whistleblowers affect cartel formation and prices. Antitrust without LENIENCY reduces cartel formation but increases cartel prices: subjects use costly FINES as punishments. LENIENCY improves antitrust by strengthening deterrence but stabilizes surviving cartels: subjects appear to anticipate the lower postconviction prices after reports/LENIENCY. With REWARDS, prices fall at the competitive level. Overall, our results suggest a strong cartel deterrence potential for well‐run LENIENCY and REWARD schemes. These findings may also be relevant for similar white‐collar organized crimes, such as corruption and fraud.

Abstract Many empirical environmental justice (EJ) studies lack a systematic framework in which to undertake research and interpret results. This paper characterizes the conventional EJ study and examines how results can be influenced by the choice of the spatial scale and scope of analysis. After thoroughly reviewing a sample of prominent EJ studies, a conventional EJ study was performed for (Superfund) National Priorities List sites at multiple scales and scopes. It was found that evidence of environmental injustice could be sensitive to scale and scope chosen, which partly explains the observed inconsistency in the empirical literature. Implications for interpreting existing EJ research and conducting future EJ research are discussed.

The current approaches to estimating the level of energy security are based on applying a comprehensive approach to selecting the factors that affect energy security and the dynamics of processes in this domain. This article reveals the application of the model of energy security estimation and strategizing based on the systemic description of energy security as an object of management: the integral system, elements and connections, functions, processes, and the system’s material. At the same time, this model is able to take into account the dynamics of technological, political, economic, and other factors operating in the country and on the global arena. The energy security estimation model developed uses a modern methodology of integrated estimation: a multiplicative form of the integrated index, a formalized definition of the safe existence limits in order to provide scientific substantiation of the threshold vector, a modified rationing method, the principal components method, and the sliding matrix method to substantiate dynamic weighting coefficients. The paper demonstrates the systemic approach application to shaping strategic goals in the energy security domain in the context of sustainable development; the trajectory of energy security development is calculated by the method of strategizing that applies the principle “future is determined by the trajectory to the future” instead of the classical forecasting “past determines the future”. In general, the article shows the possibility of unifying the process of formalizing energy security (according to the needs of the researcher: country, industry, energy network, supply chain) as an object of management, estimating energy security status, and strategizing the regulatory sphere transformation in accordance with the target values for monitoring the effectiveness of management.

The article analyses the preconditions for shaping and developing the concept of a green economy. The stages of the evolutionary development of the circular economy are considered: work with waste; environmental performance strategies; maximum conservation in the era of resource depletion. Having analysed the scientific opinions on the emergence of “circular economy”, the paper has found out that this concept is identified with the terms “round economy”, “cyclical economy”, “recovery economy”, “closed-cycle economy”, “green economy”. The approaches of different scientific schools to the category of “circular economy” are analysed and conventionally systematized into 12 groups: closed-cycle economy; renewable resource economy; alternative to traditional linear economy; global economic model; closed-loop economic system based on R-principles; the concept of economic development; sustainable development strategy; a "green" economy instrument; business philosophy; economic activity; use of production waste; recycling of secondary raw materials. There is proposed the authors' formulation of the circular economy as an innovative approach to organizing logistics processes based on the closed movement of resources with their minimum losses in the form of waste and the maximum involvement of secondary resources in production in order to achieve sustainable development of logistics systems. The article identifies the barriers preventing the implementation of the circular economy concept, among them being regulatory, institutional, economic, financial and investment, market, technological, informational, and cultural. The article considers the best practices of effective implementation of circular economy solutions on the example of Finland. The indicators of the development of the green technologies market in the world and the national logistics system of Ukraine under conditions of a circular economy are analysed. It has been established that many conceptual approaches to the definition of the terms “green logistics” and “environmental logistics” are generally accepted and have a broader meaning, without taking into account the functioning specificity of various spheres of economic activity, including transport and logistics. Scientific views on interpreting the essence and content of the concept "green logistics" are generalized. It is proposed to consider the term "green logistics" from three angles: a circular economy instrument; a component of business corporate social responsibility; and a type of economic activity aimed at reducing the negative impact on the ecosystem and the environment. In order to effectively implement the concept of green logistics, an organizational and economic mechanism has been developed, the main elements of which are: diagnostics of the current state, features and trends in the logistics systems' development, taking into account the environmental component; exogenous and endogenous factors affecting the development of logistics systems; risks in organizing the processes of logistics activities; subjects and objects of management, goals, objectives, principles, functions, tools, methods, management tools, information technology, criteria. The priority principles of forming an organizational and economic mechanism include consistency, integration, reliability, dynamism, compliance with the goals of sustainable development, and efficiency. A structural diagram of forming an organizational and economic mechanism for implementing the concept of green logistics is proposed, including the following blocks: management of material resources’ supplies and purchases; products manufacturing; warehousing and stocks; logistic flows; the risks of logistics activities; logistics service processes; recycling of waste; innovation and transformations. Introduction of the proposed organizational and economic mechanism will reduce the cost of managing the movement of logistics flows and increase the level of environmental safety. This is one of the most important requirements for implementing the concept of business corporate social responsibility in a circular economy.

This article presents the results of an expert survey as a method of empirical research to identify current problems, barriers, features, trends, and directions of the transformation of organizational culture, and applies the concept of “organizational culture” in evaluating the case of Ukrainian enterprises. First, the authors present the methodological approach, using the analytic hierarchy process, to evaluate the optimal scenario choice for developing the organizational culture of enterprises based on the twelve most important criteria and their systematization into four groups (adaptability, mission, consistency, and involvement). Second, they test a hypothesis that the optimal direction of transforming organizational culture depends on digital transformation which includes introducing digital technologies, information-powered enterprise ecosystems, innovative business models, and efficiency in B2B and P2P communications. Third, they argue that the key barriers hindering the effective development of organizational culture could be provisionally classified into seven groups: personnel, information, organization, marketing, education, technology, and investment-financial. Fourth, the authors evaluate the expediency of applying an integrated approach as a symbiosis and a constant inter-relation of influencing factors, constituent elements, digital competencies and skills, and information technologies. In conclusion, they summarize the findings of the study and discuss formulas to evaluate the impact of digital transformation on the organizational culture of enterprises in the information economy towards a people-oriented, innovative, customer-centric, and agile system in the case of Ukraine.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency undertook a case study in the Detroit metropolitan area to test the viability of a new multipollutant risk-based (MP/RB) approach to air quality management, informed by spatially resolved air quality, population, and baseline health data. The case study demonstrated that the MP/RB approach approximately doubled the human health benefits achieved by the traditional approach while increasing cost less than 20%--moving closer to the objective of Executive Order 12866 to maximize net benefits. Less well understood is how the distribution of health benefits from the MP/RB and traditional strategies affect the existing inequalities in air-pollution-related risks in Detroit. In this article, we identify Detroit populations that may be both most susceptible to air pollution health impacts (based on local-scale baseline health data) and most vulnerable to air pollution (based on fine-scale PM(2.5) air quality modeling and socioeconomic characteristics). Using these susceptible/vulnerable subpopulation profiles, we assess the relative impacts of each control strategy on risk inequality, applying the Atkinson Index (AI) to quantify health risk inequality at baseline and with either risk management approach. We find that the MP/RB approach delivers greater air quality improvements among these subpopulations while also generating substantial benefits among lower-risk populations. Applying the AI, we confirm that the MP/RB strategy yields less PM(2.5) mortality and asthma hospitalization risk inequality than the traditional approach. We demonstrate the value of this approach to policymakers as they develop cost-effective air quality management plans that maximize risk reduction while minimizing health inequality.

Abstract The U.S. Southwest is projected to experience increasing aridity due to climate change. We quantify the resulting impacts on ambient dust levels and public health using methods consistent with the Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework. We first demonstrate that U.S. Southwest fine (PM 2.5 ) and coarse (PM 2.5‐10 ) dust levels are strongly sensitive to variability in the 2‐month Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index across southwestern North America. We then estimate potential changes in dust levels through 2099 by applying the observed sensitivities to downscaled meteorological output projected by six climate models following an intermediate (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5, RCP4.5) and a high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration scenario. By 2080–2099 under RCP8.5 relative to 1986–2005 in the U.S. Southwest: (1) Fine dust levels could increase by 57%, and fine dust‐attributable all‐cause mortality and hospitalizations could increase by 230% and 360%, respectively; (2) coarse dust levels could increase by 38%, and coarse dust‐attributable cardiovascular mortality and asthma emergency department visits could increase by 210% and 88%, respectively; (3) climate‐driven changes in dust concentrations can account for 34–47% of these health impacts, with the rest due to increases in population and baseline incidence rates; and (4) economic damages of the health impacts could total $47 billion per year additional to the 1986–2005 value of $13 billion per year. Compared to national‐scale climate impacts projected for other U.S. sectors using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis framework, dust‐related mortality ranks fourth behind extreme temperature‐related mortality, labor productivity decline, and coastal property loss.

The tendencies of marketing policy development in some world’s mining countries in the light of global transformational changes are considered. The factors influencing the marketing activity of Ukrainian coal mining enterprises are identified. The volumes and structure of coal consumption in Ukraine are analyzed with a purpose to identify trends of demand volatility and specifics of logistics services for different consumer categories. It is substantiated the expediency of marketing networks formation as a form of partnership relations between different counterparties in the coal market. It is proposed the mechanism of realization of public-private partnership in the management of coalmining enterprises marketing activity based on syndicate form of incorporation. It is improved the methodological approach, which by use of the hierarchy analysis method allows selecting the optimal direction of enterprises organizational culture transformation based on defining 12 the most important criteria and their systematization into 4 groups. An integrated assessment of the level of organizational culture development of coal mining enterprises is made using economic and mathematical tools.

A comprehensive study was conducted in the direction of research and institutional support and comparison with the nearest neighbour - Poland, to determine the current state and justify strategic scenarios for Ukraine's integration into the research, educational and innovation spaces of the EU as a source of proactive sustainable innovative development. Analysis of the use of foresight technology to determine the possible future, create the desired image of the future and determine strategies to achieve it using methods developed in various research areas revealed that its application makes sense in determining long-term factors, trends and directions of national economies. That is, in foresighting, in contrast to forecasting, the emphasis is made on qualitative rather than quantitative results, which does not provide the expected targeted policy of the state, because it does not give clear, concrete results of actions - quantitative strategic benchmarks, monitoring which would control the process of these areas' development. The disadvantages of foresighting methods that limit its application are identified. Scientific substantiation of strategic scenarios of European integration of Ukrainian and Polish research, education and innovation spaces is based on the concept of sustainable development, which is grounded on applied systems theory, management theory and economic cybernetics and comprises the stages of identifying and strategizing. Identification is carried out taking into account the definition of the safe existence boundaries and simultaneous norming and integrated convolution of indicators and thresholds of education and innovation. Comparison on one scale of integrated indices of education and innovation makes it possible to carry out the goal-setting stage, identify possible strategic development scenarios and build the desired development trajectories, i.e., to implement the principle of strategizing "the future is determined by the trajectory into future." Thus, knowledge of the desired values of integrated indices in each year makes it possible, through their decomposition by the method of adaptive regulation from the management theory, to justify the values of indicators that provide the desired growth trajectory and achieve certain goals of research, educational and innovative spaces of Ukraine and Poland.

At the current stage of transformations, it is of urgent importance to solve the problems of logistics management in the system of agricultural enterprise management. The issues are particularly relevant under conditions of the rapid development of digital economy. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to develop further theoretical and methodological fundamentals, scientific and methodological approaches and practical recommendations to enhance the efficiency of managing the logistic activities of business entities in the agro-industrial complex allowing for the specific features of business processes digitalization. The article specifies the essence of the concept “management of the logistic activities of an agricultural enterprise” in digital economy. Problems, specific features and directions of transforming the logistics management in the agrarian sphere are identified. The work carries out a comparative analysis of the indicators reflecting trends in the global development of agriculture by applying digital instruments and technologies. The authors analyze the range of using information and communication technologies while organizing the logistic activities at Ukrainian processing enterprises. The authors reveal the key barriers hindering the digital transformation of the logistic activities of agricultural enterprises, which can be conventionally classified into 7 groups, namely institutional, market, transport, marketing, informational, organizational, financial and economic. It is confirmed that to eliminate those barriers, it is necessary to transform radically the existing system of managing the logistic activities of agricultural enterprises, which should be based on fundamentally new principles of operation under conditions of digitalization.

Pollen is an important environmental cause of allergic asthma episodes. Prior work has established a proof of concept for assessing projected climate change impacts on future oak pollen exposure and associated health impacts. This paper uses additional monitor data and epidemiologic functions to extend prior analyses, reporting new estimates of the current and projected future health burden of oak, birch, and grass pollen across the contiguous United States. Our results suggest that tree pollen in the spring currently accounts for between 25,000 and 50,000 pollen-related asthma emergency department (ED) visits annually (95% confidence interval: 14,000 to 100,000), roughly two thirds of which occur among people under age 18. Grass pollen in the summer season currently accounts for less than 10,000 cases annually (95% confidence interval: 4,000 to 16,000). Compared to a baseline with 21st century population growth but constant pollen, future temperature and precipitation show an increase in ED visits of 14% in 2090 for a higher greenhouse gas emissions scenario, but only 8% for a moderate emissions scenario, reflecting projected increases in pollen season length. Grass pollen, which is more sensitive to changes in climatic conditions, is a primary contributor to future ED visits, with the largest effects in the Northeast, Midwest, and Southern Great Plains regions. More complete assessment of the current and future health burden of pollen is limited by the availability of data on pollen types (e.g., ragweed), other health effects (e.g., other respiratory disease), and economic consequences (e.g., medication costs).

Applying artificial intelligence methods, the paper frames the algorithm structure and software for the formalized determination of the type of distribution (automatic classification) of the probability density function and the vector of limit values by justifying theoretically security gradations and determining quantitatively security indicators. The methodological basis of the research is the applied systems theory, statistical analysis, and methods of artificial intelligence (cluster analysis). The study of the approaches applied showed the absence of a theoretical basis for determining security gradations and the absence of their theoretical quantitative justification. The theoretical basis for determining security gradations is the concept of an extended "homeostatic plateau", which connects three levels of security in both directions: optimal, crisis, and critical with spheres of positive, neutral and negative feedback. To determine the bifurcation points (vector of limit values), the “t-criterion” method is used, which consists in constructing the probability density function of a “benchmark” sample, determining whether it belongs to the type of distribution with the calculation of statistical characteristics (mathematical expectation, mean square deviation, and asymmetry coefficient) and formalized calculation of the vector of limit values for characteristic types of distribution (normal, lognormal, exponential). To solve the problem of recognising (automatic classifying) the type of distribution of probability density functions of security indicators, artificial intelligence methods are used, namely, a discriminant method from the class of cluster analysis methods using quantitative and qualitative metrics: Euclidean distance, Manhattan metric and recognition by characteristic features. To digitize the determination of the vector of safety indicators limit values, an algorithm structure and software in the C++ programming language (version 6) have been developed, which ensures full automation of all stages of the algorithm and the adequacy of recognising graphic digital data with a predetermined number of clusters (types of distribution). A distinctive feature of the proposed method of formalized determination of the security indicators limit values is a complete absence of subjectivity and complete mathematical formalization, which significantly increases the speed, quality and reliability of the results obtained when evaluating the level of sustainable development, economic security, national security or national stability, regardless of the level of a researcher's qualification.

The Fourth Industrial Revolution and the accelerated development of cyber-physical technologies lead to essential changes in national tax systems and international taxation. The main areas in which taxation meets cyber-physical technologies are digitalization, robotization, M2M and blockchain technologies. Each of these areas has its own opportunities and problems. Three main approaches towards possible solutions for these new problems are identified. The first is to try to apply taxation to new cyber-physical technologies and products of their application. This approach includes the OECD's Action 1 Plan on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting. It also includes the spread of traditional taxes on new objects -personal data, cryptocurrencies, imputed income of robots. The second is to replace digital transactions and shortfalls in revenues by traditional objects of taxation in the form of tangible assets and people and / or increase tax pressure (including by improving tax administration with use of Big Data) and the degree of progressiveness of taxes already levied on such objects. The third approach is to set a course on building a new tax space with smart taxes based on real-time principles, smart contracts and Big Data. This implies a transition to automatic taxation using blockchain technologies, which focus on the functions of applying distributed ledgers of business transactions in realtime. At present, the general trends are such that the first and second are prevalent, which is manifested in an increase in the relative importance of property, sales and employment taxes. Concerning the third approach, any movement in this direction is still facing a number of technical and other problems and is thus being discussed mainly at the conceptual level

The article determines the list of indicators of the standard of living of the population as a component of social security, including shadow indicators without which the assessment of living standards is inadequate in reality. The authors substantiate the limits of safe existence through the definition of the vector of the indicators’ threshold values. The paper identified the current state of the standards of living in Ukraine, Georgia and Poland through the integrated assessment from the standpoint of security, as well as outlined the most important threats. The researchers also scientifically substantiated the strategic benchmarks for the indicators of the standards of living considering three development scenarios that provide the fulfilment of the established sustainable development goals by means of adaptive regulation methods available in the control theory.

Deepwater Horizon was the largest marine oil spill in U.S. waters, oiling large expanses of coastal wetland shorelines. We compared marsh periwinkle (Littoraria irrorata) density and shell length at salt marsh sites with heavy oiling to reference conditions ∼16 months after oiling. We also compared periwinkle density and size among oiled sites with and without shoreline cleanup treatments. Densities of periwinkles were reduced by 80-90% at the oiled marsh edge and by 50% in the oiled marsh interior (∼9 m inland) compared to reference, with greatest numerical losses of periwinkles in the marsh interior, where densities were naturally higher. Shoreline cleanup further reduced adult snail density as well as snail size. Based on the size of adult periwinkles observed coupled with age and growth information, population recovery is projected to take several years once oiling and habitat conditions in affected areas are suitable to support normal periwinkle life-history functions. Where heavily oiled marshes have experienced accelerated erosion as a result of the spill, these habitat impacts would represent additional losses of periwinkles. Losses of marsh periwinkles would likely affect other ecosystem processes and attributes, including organic matter and nutrient cycling, marsh-estuarine food chains, and multiple species that prey on periwinkles.

Abstract Limits on consumer attention give firms incentives to manipulate prospective buyers’ allocation of attention. This paper models such attention manipulation and shows that it limits the ability of disclosure regulation to improve consumer welfare. Competitive information supply from firms competing for attention can reduce consumers’ knowledge by causing information overload. A single firm subjected to a disclosure mandate may deliberately induce such information overload to obfuscate financially relevant information or engage in product complexification to bound consumers’ financial literacy. Thus, disclosure rules that would improve welfare for agents without attention limitations can prove ineffective for consumers with limited attention. Obfuscation suggests a role for rules that mandate not only the content, but also the format of disclosure; however, even rules that mandate ‘easy-to-understand’ formats can be ineffective against complexification, which may call for regulation of product design.