Instituto Dom Luiz

Information on land surface properties finds applications in a range of areas related to weather forecasting, environmental research, hazard management and climate monitoring. Remotely sensed observations yield the only means of supplying land surface information with adequate time sampling and a wide spatial coverage. The aim of the Satellite Application Facility for Land Surface Analysis (Land-SAF) is to take full advantage of remotely sensed data to support land, land–atmosphere and biosphere applications, with emphasis on the development and implementation of algorithms that allow operational use of data from European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) sensors. This article provides an overview of the Land-SAF, with brief descriptions of algorithms and validation results. The set of parameters currently estimated and disseminated by the Land-SAF consists of three main groups: (i) the surface radiation budget, including albedo, land surface temperature, and downward short- and longwave fluxes; (ii) the surface water budget (snow cover and evapotranspiration); and (iii) vegetation and wild-fire parameters.

The satellite application facility on land surface analysis (Land SAF) generates, archives, and disseminates land surface temperature (LST) in an operational basis. LST is estimated from the spinning enhanced visible and infrared imager (SEVIRI) onboard Meteosat, making use of a generalized split‐windows algorithm. Here SEVIRI LST is compared with retrievals from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS), collocated in space and time, for three 10° × 10° areas (Iberian Peninsula, Central Africa, and the Kalahari), and for six 7‐day periods between July 2005 and May 2006. Overall, SEVIRI LSTs are warmer than MODIS values, with maximum discrepancies generally observed for daytime. The mismatches between the two satellite retrievals are then analyzed in terms of (1) satellite viewing angle differences, (2) surface orography, and (3) surface type. Daytime discrepancies are strongly impacted by differential heating rates of elements within a pixel (e.g., vegetation types, bareground), leading to a relatively wide range of MODIS‐SEVIRI LST differences, with strong dependency on the MODIS view zenith angle. In contrast, average nighttime discrepancies are generally below 2°C. The intercomparison between MODIS and SEVIRI LST is complemented with in situ observations taken at Evora ground station (southwestern part of the Iberian Peninsula). The differences between ground and satellite‐derived values show high variability for daytime for both sensors, with a systematic overestimation of in situ values by SEVIRI LST. In the case of nighttime observations, both sensors tend to underestimate local measurements, with estimated bias over all events under study of −1.7°C and −2.6°C for SEVIRI and MODIS LST, respectively.

Abstract This review discusses recent advances in geophysical data assimilation beyond Gaussian statistical modeling, in the fields of meteorology, oceanography, as well as atmospheric chemistry. The non-Gaussian features are stressed rather than the nonlinearity of the dynamical models, although both aspects are entangled. Ideas recently proposed to deal with these non-Gaussian issues, in order to improve the state or parameter estimation, are emphasized. The general Bayesian solution to the estimation problem and the techniques to solve it are first presented, as well as the obstacles that hinder their use in high-dimensional and complex systems. Approximations to the Bayesian solution relying on Gaussian, or on second-order moment closure, have been wholly adopted in geophysical data assimilation (e.g., Kalman filters and quadratic variational solutions). Yet, nonlinear and non-Gaussian effects remain. They essentially originate in the nonlinear models and in the non-Gaussian priors. How these effects are handled within algorithms based on Gaussian assumptions is then described. Statistical tools that can diagnose them and measure deviations from Gaussianity are recalled. The following advanced techniques that seek to handle the estimation problem beyond Gaussianity are reviewed: maximum entropy filter, Gaussian anamorphosis, non-Gaussian priors, particle filter with an ensemble Kalman filter as a proposal distribution, maximum entropy on the mean, or strictly Bayesian inferences for large linear models, etc. Several ideas are illustrated with recent or original examples that possess some features of high-dimensional systems. Many of the new approaches are well understood only in special cases and have difficulties that remain to be circumvented. Some of the suggested approaches are quite promising, and sometimes already successful for moderately large though specific geophysical applications. Hints are given as to where progress might come from.

This article provides a description of a land surface temperature (LST) data set generated (and provided in near-real-time or offline) based on infrared data from sensors onboard different geostationary (GEO) satellites: Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and Multifunction Transport Satellite (MTSAT). Given the different characteristics of the imagers onboard each GEO platform, different algorithmic methodologies for the retrieval of LST are presented and implemented – namely the Generalized Split-Window (GSW) algorithm and the Dual Algorithm (DA) in its mono- and dual-channel forms – using semi-empirical functions that relate LST to top-of-atmosphere brightness temperatures in infrared window channels. The assumptions and physics underlying each methodology, as well as the uncertainties of LST estimates, are discussed. The formulations are trained using a data set of radiative transfer simulations for a wide range of atmospheric and surface conditions. The performance of each algorithm is then assessed by comparing its output against an independent set of simulations, suggesting that product uncertainties range from 2°C (for GSW and the two-channel algorithm) to 4°C (for the one-channel algorithm). Finally, LST retrievals from different GEO satellites are merged into a single field. In overlapping areas, the average discrepancies between LST products derived from GOES and from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) onboard MSG are within 1°C during night-time, but may reach 3°C during daytime. Over those areas, the merged LST field is obtained as a weighted average of available LST retrievals for the same time slot, taking into account the respective error bar.

Abstract. The Gulf of Cadiz, as part of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary, is recognized as a potential source of big earthquakes and tsunamis that may affect the bordering countries, as occurred on 1 November 1755. Preparing for the future, Portugal is establishing a national tsunami warning system in which the threat caused by any large-magnitude earthquake in the area is estimated from a comprehensive database of scenarios. In this paper we summarize the knowledge about the active tectonics in the Gulf of Cadiz and integrate the available seismological information in order to propose the generation model of destructive tsunamis to be applied in tsunami warnings. The fault model derived is then used to estimate the recurrence of large earthquakes using the fault slip rates obtained by Cunha et al. (2012) from thin-sheet neotectonic modelling. Finally we evaluate the consistency of seismicity rates derived from historical and instrumental catalogues with the convergence rates between Eurasia and Nubia given by plate kinematic models.

The methodologies used by the Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (Land SAF) for retrieving emissivity are presented here. In the first approach, i.e., the vegetation cover method (VCM), the land surface emissivity (EM) is computed for Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) infrared channels and for the 3- to 14- range using information on the pixel fraction of vegetation cover (FVC). The VCM uses a lookup table, which takes into account the channel's spectral response function, and laboratory reflectance spectra for different materials. The accuracy of the VCM depends on the reliability of FVC and the land cover classification. The EM for SEVIRI split-window channels is primarily used as an internal product by Land SAF for land surface temperature (LST) estimations. However, sensitivity studies show that LST often fails to meet the required accuracy of 2 K over desert and semiarid regions, where the VCM is unable to model the EM spatial variability, which is mostly associated with soil composition. Moreover, it is also over such areas where the atmosphere is generally dry that the impact of EM uncertainties on LST is largest. A second approach to determine the EM for SEVIRI split-window channels is currently being tested. This methodology allows the simultaneous retrieval of LST and channel EMs with the assumption that the latter remain constant. The channel EMs are then averaged over a 22-day period to filter out the noise in the retrievals. A first analysis of the maps obtained for an area within Northern Africa shows spatial patterns with features also present in the surface albedo.

The contourite depositional system (CDS) along the southwestern Iberian Margin (SIM), within the Gulf of Cadiz and offshore areas of western Portugal bear the unmistakable signal of Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) exiting the Strait of Gibraltar. This locality records key information concerning the effects of tectonic activity on margin sedimentation, the effects of MOW dynamics on Atlantic circulation, and how these factors may have influenced global climate. Over the last four decades, numerous studies have been conducted on the late Miocene, Pliocene and Quaternary sedimentary stacking pattern of Neogene basins along the SIM for both academic and resources exploration purposes. However, understanding of the region rests primarily on basic seismic stratigraphy calibrated with limited data from only a few exploration wells. The Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 339 recently drilled five sites in the Gulf of Cadiz and two sites on the western Iberian margin. The integration of core and borehole data with other geophysical databases leads us to propose a new stratigraphic framework. Interpretation of IODP Exp. 339 data along with that from industry sources and onshore outcrop analysis helps refine our understanding of the SIM's sedimentary evolution. We identify significant changes in sedimentation style and dominant sedimentary processes, coupled with widespread depositional hiatuses along the SIM within the Cadiz, Sanlucar, Doñana, Algarve and Alentejo basins. Following the 4.5 Ma cessation of a previous phase of tectonic activity related to the Miocene–Pliocene boundary, tectonics continued to influence margin development, downslope sediment transport and CDS evolution. Sedimentary features indicate tectonic pulses of about 0.8–0.9 Ma duration with a pronounced overprint of ~ 2–2.5 Ma cycles. These more protracted cycles relate to the westward rollback of subducted lithosphere at the convergent Africa-Eurasia plate boundary as its previous NW–SE compressional regime shifted to a WNW–ESE direction. Two major compressional events affecting to the Neogene basins at 3.2–3 Ma and 2–2.3 Ma help constrain the three main stages of CDS evolution. The stages include: 1) the initial-drift stage (5.33–3.2 Ma) with a weak MOW, 2) a transitional-drift stage (3.2–2 Ma) and 3) a growth-drift stage (2 Ma-present time) with enhanced MOW circulation into the Atlantic and associated contourite development due to greater bottom-current velocity. Two minor Pleistocene discontinuities at 0.7–0.9 Ma and 0.3–0.6 Ma record the effects of renewed tectonic activity on basin evolution, appearing most prominently in the Doñana basin. Several discontinuities bounding major and minor units appear on seismic profiles. Quaternary records offer the clearest example of this, with major units of about 0.8–0.9 Ma and sub-units of 0.4–0.5 Ma. Sedimentation is controlled by a combination of tectonics, sediment supply, sea-level and climate. This research identifies time scales of tectonic controls on deep-marine sedimentation, specifically over periods of 2.5–> 0.4 Ma. Shorter-term climatic (orbital) mechanisms control sedimentation at time scales of ≤ 0.4 Ma. The role of bottom water circulation and associated processes in shaping the seafloor and controlling the sedimentary stacking pattern on continental margins has to be seriously reconsidered in future multidisciplinary studies. This is not only because of the common occurrence of sandy contourite deposits in deep water setting and their economic interest for hydrocarbon exploration, but principally because they archive the heartbeat of the interior Earth and therefore have important sedimentary and paleoceanographic implications.

Abstract The coupling between land surface and the atmosphere is a key feature in Earth System Modeling for exploiting the predictability of slowly evolving geophysical variables (e.g., soil moisture or vegetation state), and for correctly representing rapid variations within the diurnal cycle, particularly relevant in data assimilation applications. In this study, land surface temperature (LST) estimated from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) is used to assess the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) skin temperature, which can be interpreted as a radiative temperature of the model surface. It is shown that the ECMWF model tends to slightly overestimate skin temperature during nighttime and underestimate daytime values. Such underestimation of daily amplitudes is particularly pronounced in (semiarid) arid regions, suggesting a misrepresentation of surface energy fluxes in those areas. The LST estimated from MSG is used to evaluate the impact of changes in some of the ECMWF model surface parameters. The introduction of more realistic model vegetation is shown to have a positive but limited impact on skin temperature: long integration leads to an equilibrium state where changes in the latent heat flux and soil moisture availability compensate each other. Revised surface roughness lengths for heat and momentum, however, lead to overall positive impact on daytime skin temperature, mostly due to a reduction of sensible heat flux. This is particularly relevant in nonvegetated areas, unaffected by model vegetation. The reduction of skin conductivity, a parameter which controls the heat transfer to ground by diffusion, is shown to further improve the model skin temperature.

Abstract Land surface energetic partitioning between latent, sensible, and ground heat fluxes determines climate and influences the terrestrial segment of land‐atmosphere coupling. Soil moisture, among other variables, has a direct influence on this partitioning. Dry surfaces characterize a water‐limited regime where evapotranspiration and soil moisture are coupled. This coupling is subdued for wet surfaces, or an energy‐limited regime. This framework is commonly evaluated using the evaporative fraction–‐soil moisture relationship. However, this relationship is explicitly or implicitly prescribed in land surface models. These impositions, in turn, confound model‐based evaluations of energetic partitioning‐–soil moisture relationships. In this study, we use satellite‐based observations of surface temperature diurnal amplitude (directly related to available energy partitioning) and soil moisture, free of model impositions, to estimate characteristics of surface energetic partitioning–‐soil moisture relationships during 10–‐20‐day surface drying periods across Africa. We specifically estimate the spatial patterns of water‐limited energy flux sensitivity to soil moisture (m) and the soil moisture threshold separating water and energy‐limited regimes (θ*). We also assess how time evolution of other factors (e.g., solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit, surface albedo, and wind speed) can confound the energetic partitioning–‐soil moisture relationship. We find higher m in drier regions and interestingly similar spatial θ* distributions across biomes. Vapor pressure deficit and insolation increases during drying tend to increase m. Only vapor pressure deficit increases in the Sahelian grasslands systematically decrease θ*. Ultimately, soil and atmospheric moisture availability together play the largest role in land surface energy partitioning with minimal consistent influences of time evolution of other forcings.

Abstract The future state of drought in China under climate change remains uncertain. This study investigates drought events, focusing on the region of China, using simulations from five global climate models (GCMs) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). The daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is employed to analyze drought severity, duration, and frequency over three future periods. Evaluation of the GCMs’ simulations against observational data indicates their effectiveness in capturing historical climatic change across China. The rapid increase in CO 2 concentration under high-emission scenarios in the mid- and late-future century (2040–2070 and 2071–2100) substantially influences vegetation behavior via regulation on leaf stomata and canopy structure. This regulation decelerates the increase in potential evapotranspiration, thereby mitigating the sharp rise in future drought occurrences in China. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to develop strategies and measures for mitigating and adapting to future drought conditions in China.

Large-scale climate patterns control variability in the global carbon sink. In Europe, the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences vegetation activity, however the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern is known to modulate NAO strength and location. Using observation-driven and modelled data sets, we show that multi-annual variability patterns of European Net Biome Productivity (NBP) are linked to anomalies in heat and water transport controlled by the NAO-EA interplay. Enhanced NBP occurs when NAO and EA are both in negative phase, associated with cool summers with wet soils which enhance photosynthesis. During anti-phase periods, NBP is reduced through distinct impacts of climate anomalies in photosynthesis and respiration. The predominance of anti-phase years in the early 2000s may explain the European-wide reduction of carbon uptake during this period, reported in previous studies. Results show that improving the capability of simulating atmospheric circulation patterns may better constrain regional carbon sink variability in coupled carbon-climate models.

Due to global warming, drought events have become more frequent, which resulted in aggravated crop failures, food shortage, larger and more energetic wildfires, and have seriously affected socio-economic development and agricultural production. In this study, a global long-term (1981-2021), high-resolution (4 km) improved vegetation health index (VHI) dataset integrating climate, vegetation and soil moisture was developed. Based on drought records from the Emergency Event Database, we compared the detection efficiency of the VHI before and after its improvement in the occurrence and scope of observed drought events. The global drought detection efficiency of the improved high-resolution VHI dataset reached values as high as 85%, which is 14% higher than the original VHI dataset. The improved VHI dataset was also more sensitive to mild droughts and more accurate regarding the extent of droughts. This improved dataset can play an important role in long-term drought monitoring but also has the potential to assess the impact of drought on the agricultural, forestry, ecological and environmental sectors.

Abstract Three different complexity snow schemes implemented in the ECMWF land surface scheme Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme of Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) are evaluated within the EC-EARTH climate model. The snow schemes are (i) the original HTESSEL single-bulk-layer snow scheme, (ii) a new snow scheme in operations at ECMWF since September 2009, and (iii) a multilayer version of the previous. In offline site simulations, the multilayer scheme outperforms the single-layer schemes in deep snowpack conditions through its ability to simulate sporadic melting events thanks to the lower thermal inertial of the uppermost layer. Coupled atmosphere–land/snow simulations performed by the EC-EARTH climate model are validated against remote sensed snow cover and surface albedo. The original snow scheme has a systematic early melting linked to an underestimation of surface albedo during spring that was partially reduced with the new snow schemes. A key process to improve the realism of the near-surface atmospheric temperature and at the same time the soil freezing is the thermal insulation of the snowpack (tightly coupled with the accuracy of snow mass and density simulations). The multilayer snow scheme outperforms the single-layer schemes in open deep snowpack (such as prairies or tundra in northern latitudes) and is instead comparable in shallow snowpack conditions. However, the representation of orography in current climate models implies limitations for accurately simulating the snowpack, particularly over complex terrain regions such as the Rockies and the Himalayas.

A new all-weather land surface temperature (LST) product derived at the Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF) is presented. It is the first all-weather LST product based on visible and infrared observations combining clear-sky LST retrieved from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on Meteosat Second Generation (MSG/SEVIRI) infrared (IR) measurements with LST estimated with a land surface energy balance (EB) model to fill gaps caused by clouds. The EB model solves the surface energy balance mostly using products derived at LSA-SAF. The new product is compared with in situ observations made at 3 dedicated validation stations, and with a microwave (MW)-based LST product derived from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) measurements. The validation against in-situ LST indicates an accuracy of the new product between -0.8 K and 1.1 K and a precision between 1.0 K and 1.4 K, generally showing a better performance than the MW product. The EB model shows some limitations concerning the representation of the LST diurnal cycle. Comparisons with MW LST generally show higher LST of the new product over desert areas, and lower LST over tropical regions. Several other imagers provide suitable measurements for implementing the proposed methodology, which offers the potential to obtain a global, nearly gap-free LST product.

A method to derive accurate spatially dense maps of 3-D terrain displacement velocity is presented. It is based on the merging of terrain displacement velocities estimated by time series of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data acquired along ascending and descending orbits and repeated GPS measurements. The method uses selected persistent scatterers (PSs) and GPS measurements of the horizontal velocity. An important step of the proposed method is the mitigation of the impact of atmospheric phase delay in InSAR data. It is shown that accurate vertical velocities at PS locations can be retrieved if smooth horizontal velocity variations can be assumed. Furthermore, the mitigation of atmospheric effects reduces the spatial dispersion of vertical velocity estimates resulting in a more spatially regular 3-D velocity map. The proposed methodology is applied to the case study of Azores islands characterized by important tectonic phenomena.

Abstract Extreme precipitation events lead to dramatic impacts on society and the situation will worsen under climate change. Decision-makers need reliable estimates of future changes as a basis for effective adaptation strategies, but projections at local scale from regional climate models (RCMs) are highly uncertain. Here we exploit the km-scale convection-permitting multi-model (CPM) ensemble, generated within the FPS Convection project, to provide new understanding of the changes in local precipitation extremes and related uncertainties over the greater Alpine region. The CPM ensemble shows a stronger increase in the fractional contribution from extreme events than the driving RCM ensemble during the summer, when convection dominates. We find that the CPM ensemble substantially reduces the model uncertainties and their contribution to the total uncertainties by more than 50%. We conclude that the more realistic representation of local dynamical processes in the CPMs provides more reliable local estimates of change, which are essential for policymakers to plan adaptation measures.

Climate change constitutes a major threat for all the Mediterranean countries due to the combination of large precipitation reductions and temperature increases and the higher frequency of climate extremes, especially driving water scarcity and all the derived multi-sectoral impacts. Portugal, as most of the Mediterranean countries, already endures larger frequencies of droughts and deficits in soil moisture and water storage. In the current study, the future projections of soil moisture are examined using a multi-model EURO-CORDEX regional climate ensemble, in agreement with three future emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5). The drivers of future soil moisture dynamics are also analysed and its effect on relative humidity and evaporation rates. As expected, the projections show a clear reduction of soil moisture through the entire annual cycle, in response to the large decrease in precipitation and temperature increase, via a massive growth of potential evapotranspiration. The overall total soil moisture decreases ranges from −5% for the RCP2.6 to −20% (-10%) for the RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), w.r.t. the present climate. In the historical period, soil moisture deficits rarely reach values 3x over the standard deviation, but projections reveal that for the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) for the mid-century deficits up to 5x (6x) are projected to occur, and for the end-of-century even 7x for the RCP8.5. The annual cycle of soil moisture is in present and future climate determined by precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and deficit is both enhanced and covers a wider monthly window in the future, especially for the RCP8.5. The surface humidity also decreases importantly, up to −4% and −8% in spring and summer in the end-of-the-century, in agreement with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Resulting from the projected changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, the typical semi-arid climate, which in present climate is confined to a small south-eastern region of Portugal, is expected to cover almost 2/3 of the mainland in the case of RCP8.5. Finally, this study was developed in the framework of the National Roadmap for Adaptation XXI - Portuguese Territorial Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for XXI Century (RNA2100) project and aims at delivering a deeper and different featuring of terrestrial water for adaptation purposes in a Mediterranean country.

Abstract. Natural proxies, documentary evidence and instrumental data are the only sources used to reconstruct past climates. In this paper, we present the 18th century meteorologists (either Portuguese or foreigners) who made the first observations at several sites in Continental Portugal, Madeira Island and Rio de Janeiro (Brazil), from 1749 until 1802. Information is given concerning observation site, variables observed, measurement period, methods of measurements and sources (both manuscript and printed). Some examples from the data usefulness are given: rainfall variability in Madeira (1749–1753) and in continental Portugal (1781–1793) was reconstructed, allowing to extend towards the late 18th century the well known negative correlation between the NAO index and seasonal rainfall. Furthermore, previously unpublished data for 1783–1784 have allowed analysing the consequences of the Lakagígar eruption in Portugal: foggy and haze days are referred to in summer 1783, but unlike the hot summer observed in northern and central Europe, temperatures in Portugal were lower than average. Additionally, observations from Rio de Janeiro in Brazil show that the Lakagígar consequences may well have spread to sectors of the Southern Hemisphere. Although the series are short, the data have been used for climate reconstruction studies and may also be useful to improve the quality of large scale reconstruction datasets.

There is growing evidence that the climatic conditions favorable to the occurrence of large fires (LFs) might not be unique within a homogeneous biogeographic area. But the identification of these coexistent multi-scalar climatologies often relies on empirical observations. Here we classify summer LFs (>120 ha) in Mediterranean France for the period 1973 to 2012, according to their local-scale weather conditions (i.e. temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and fuel moisture proxies). Three distinct climatologies were identified, and were referred as fire weather types (FWTs). (i) One of them is associated with near-normal atmospheric conditions. (ii) A heat-driven (HD) type is mostly discriminated by warm anomalies. (iii) A wind-driven (WD) type is mostly discriminated by faster winds, but cooler anomalies than usual. The frequency of WD and near-normal LFs sharply decreased in southern France over the last decades while the frequency of HD fires remained unchanged. In addition the current increase in HD potential fire days indicates a potential shift in the dominant FWT for this region. This approach offers a better understanding of the variations in fire activity and fire spread patterns in the context of contemporaneous global changes.

International audience