International Center for Tropical Agriculture

Expansion and intensification of cultivation are among the predominant global changes of this century. Intensification of agriculture by use of high-yielding crop varieties, fertilization,irrigation, and pesticides has contributed substantially to the tremendous increases in food production over the past 50 years. Land conversion and intensification,however, also alter the biotic interactions and patterns of resource availability in ecosystems and can have serious local, regional, and global environmental consequences.The use of ecologically based management strategies can increase the sustainability of agricultural production while reducing off-site consequences.

Abstract A new release of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI‐ESM1.2) is presented. The development focused on correcting errors in and improving the physical processes representation, as well as improving the computational performance, versatility, and overall user friendliness. In addition to new radiation and aerosol parameterizations of the atmosphere, several relatively large, but partly compensating, coding errors in the model's cloud, convection, and turbulence parameterizations were corrected. The representation of land processes was refined by introducing a multilayer soil hydrology scheme, extending the land biogeochemistry to include the nitrogen cycle, replacing the soil and litter decomposition model and improving the representation of wildfires. The ocean biogeochemistry now represents cyanobacteria prognostically in order to capture the response of nitrogen fixation to changing climate conditions and further includes improved detritus settling and numerous other refinements. As something new, in addition to limiting drift and minimizing certain biases, the instrumental record warming was explicitly taken into account during the tuning process. To this end, a very high climate sensitivity of around 7 K caused by low‐level clouds in the tropics as found in an intermediate model version was addressed, as it was not deemed possible to match observed warming otherwise. As a result, the model has a climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO 2 over preindustrial conditions of 2.77 K, maintaining the previously identified highly nonlinear global mean response to increasing CO 2 forcing, which nonetheless can be represented by a simple two‐layer model.

Soil health is presented as an integrative property that reflects the capacity of soil to respond to agricultural intervention, so that it continues to support both the agricultural production and the provision of other ecosystem services. The major challenge within sustainable soil management is to conserve ecosystem service delivery while optimizing agricultural yields. It is proposed that soil health is dependent on the maintenance of four major functions: carbon transformations; nutrient cycles; soil structure maintenance; and the regulation of pests and diseases. Each of these functions is manifested as an aggregate of a variety of biological processes provided by a diversity of interacting soil organisms under the influence of the abiotic soil environment. Analysis of current models of the soil community under the impact of agricultural interventions (particularly those entailing substitution of biological processes with fossil fuel-derived energy or inputs) confirms the highly integrative pattern of interactions within each of these functions and leads to the conclusion that measurement of individual groups of organisms, processes or soil properties does not suffice to indicate the state of the soil health. A further conclusion is that quantifying the flow of energy and carbon between functions is an essential but non-trivial task for the assessment and management of soil health.

Abstract. Agricultural soils, having been depleted of much of their native carbon stocks, have a significant CO 2 sink capacity. Global estimates of this sink capacity are in the order of 20‐30 Pg C over the next 50‐100 years. Management practices to build up soil C must increase the input of organic matter to soil and/or decrease soil organic matter decomposition rates. The most appropriate management practices to increase soil C vary regionally, dependent on both environmental and socioeconomic factors. In temperate regions, key strategies involve increasing cropping frequency and reducing bare fallow, increasing the use of perennial forages (including N‐fixing species) in crop rotations, retaining crop residues and reducing or eliminating tillage (i.e. no‐till). In North America and Europe, conversion of marginal arable land to permanent perennial vegetation, to protect fragile soils and landscapes and/or reduce agricultural surpluses, provides additional opportunities for C sequestration. In the tropics, increasing C inputs to soil through improving the fertility and productivity of cropland and pastures is essential. In extensive systems with vegetated fallow periods (e.g. shifting cultivation), planted fallows and cover crops can increase C levels over the cropping cycle. Use of no‐till, green manures and agroforestry are other beneficial practices. Overall, improving the productivity and sustainability of existing agricultural lands is crucial to help reduce the rate of new land clearing, from which large amounts of CO 2 from biomass and soil are emitted to the atmosphere. Some regional analyses of soil C sequestration and sequestration potential have been performed, mainly for temperate industrialized countries. More are needed, especially for the tropics, to capture region‐specific interactions between climate, soil and management resources that are lost in global level assessments. By itself, C sequestration in agricultural soils can make only modest contributions (e.g. 3‐6% of total fossil C emissions) to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, effective mitigation policies will not be based on any single ‘magic bullet’ solutions, but rather on many modest reductions which are economically efficient and which confer additional benefits to society. In this context, soil C sequestration is a significant mitigation option. Additional advantages of pursuing strategies to increase soil C are the added benefits of improved soil quality for improving agricultural productivity and sustainability.

Increased demand and advanced techniques could lead to more refined mapping and management of soils.

Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y(-1)), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y(-1). Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y(-1) could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient--measured in "total abatement calorie cost"--than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes.

Agroforestry systems and tree cover on agricultural land make an important contribution to climate change mitigation, but are not systematically accounted for in either global carbon budgets or national carbon accounting. This paper assesses the role of trees on agricultural land and their significance for carbon sequestration at a global level, along with recent change trends. Remote sensing data show that in 2010, 43% of all agricultural land globally had at least 10% tree cover and that this has increased by 2% over the previous ten years. Combining geographically and bioclimatically stratified Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 default estimates of carbon storage with this tree cover analysis, we estimated 45.3 PgC on agricultural land globally, with trees contributing >75%. Between 2000 and 2010 tree cover increased by 3.7%, resulting in an increase of >2 PgC (or 4.6%) of biomass carbon. On average, globally, biomass carbon increased from 20.4 to 21.4 tC ha(-1). Regional and country-level variation in stocks and trends were mapped and tabulated globally, and for all countries. Brazil, Indonesia, China and India had the largest increases in biomass carbon stored on agricultural land, while Argentina, Myanmar, and Sierra Leone had the largest decreases.

Coffee has proven to be highly sensitive to climate change. Because coffee plantations have a lifespan of about thirty years, the likely effects of future climates are already a concern. Forward-looking research on adaptation is therefore in high demand across the entire supply chain. In this paper we seek to project current and future climate suitability for coffee production (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) on a global scale. We used machine learning algorithms to derive functions of climatic suitability from a database of geo-referenced production locations. Use of several parameter combinations enhances the robustness of our analysis. The resulting multi-model ensemble suggests that higher temperatures may reduce yields of C. arabica, while C. canephora could suffer from increasing variability of intra-seasonal temperatures. Climate change will reduce the global area suitable for coffee by about 50 % across emission scenarios. Impacts are highest at low latitudes and low altitudes. Impacts at higher altitudes and higher latitudes are still negative but less pronounced. The world’s dominant production regions in Brazil and Vietnam may experience substantial reductions in area available for coffee. Some regions in East Africa and Asia may become more suitable, but these are partially in forested areas, which could pose a challenge to mitigation efforts.

Abstract Climate and litter quality are primary drivers of terrestrial decomposition and, based on evidence from multisite experiments at regional and global scales, are universally factored into global decomposition models. In contrast, soil animals are considered key regulators of decomposition at local scales but their role at larger scales is unresolved. Soil animals are consequently excluded from global models of organic mineralization processes. Incomplete assessment of the roles of soil animals stems from the difficulties of manipulating invertebrate animals experimentally across large geographic gradients. This is compounded by deficient or inconsistent taxonomy. We report a global decomposition experiment to assess the importance of soil animals in C mineralization, in which a common grass litter substrate was exposed to natural decomposition in either control or reduced animal treatments across 30 sites distributed from 43°S to 68°N on six continents. Animals in the mesofaunal size range were recovered from the litter by Tullgren extraction and identified to common specifications, mostly at the ordinal level. The design of the trials enabled faunal contribution to be evaluated against abiotic parameters between sites. Soil animals increase decomposition rates in temperate and wet tropical climates, but have neutral effects where temperature or moisture constrain biological activity. Our findings highlight that faunal influences on decomposition are dependent on prevailing climatic conditions. We conclude that (1) inclusion of soil animals will improve the predictive capabilities of region‐ or biome‐scale decomposition models, (2) soil animal influences on decomposition are important at the regional scale when attempting to predict global change scenarios, and (3) the statistical relationship between decomposition rates and climate, at the global scale, is robust against changes in soil faunal abundance and diversity.

The beneficial effects of combined organic and inorganic nutrients on soil fertility have been repeatedly shown, yet there are no guidelines for their management. Organic materials are not magic; many of their functions with respect to soil fertility are known. Organic materials influence nutrient availability (i) by nutrients added, (ii) through mineralization-immobilization patterns, (iii) as an energy source for microbial activities, (iv) as precursors to soil organic matter (SOM), and (v) by reducing P sorption of the soil. The challenge is to combine organics of differing quality with inorganic fertilizers to optimize nutrient availability to plants. Numerous field trials indicate both added benefits and disadvantages of combining nutrient sources. Increased nutrient recovery and residual effects are associated with combined nutrient additions compared with inorganic fertilizers applied alone. Unfortunately, for many trials there is lack of crucial information on the nutrient content and quality of the organic inputs. Trials are needed that link the quality of the organic material to its fertilizer equivalency and its effect on the longer term composition of SOM and crop yields. A systematic framework for investigating the combined use of organic and inorganic nutrient sources includes farm surveys, characterization of the quality of organic materials, assessment of the fertilizer equivalency value based on the quality of organics, and experimental designs for determining optimal combinations of nutrient sources. The desired outcome is tools that can be used by researchers, extensionists, and farmers for assessing options of using scarce resource for maintaining soil fertility and improving crop yields.

Abstract The role of soil organic carbon in global carbon cycles is receiving increasing attention both as a potentially large and uncertain source of CO 2 emissions in response to predicted global temperature rises, and as a natural sink for carbon able to reduce atmospheric CO 2 . There is general agreement that the technical potential for sequestration of carbon in soil is significant, and some consensus on the magnitude of that potential. Croplands worldwide could sequester between 0.90 and 1.85 Pg C/yr, i.e. 26–53% of the target of the “4p1000 Initiative: Soils for Food Security and Climate”. The importance of intensively cultivated regions such as North America, Europe, India and intensively cultivated areas in Africa, such as Ethiopia, is highlighted. Soil carbon sequestration and the conservation of existing soil carbon stocks, given its multiple benefits including improved food production, is an important mitigation pathway to achieve the less than 2 °C global target of the Paris Climate Agreement.

We calculated a simple indicator of food availability using data from 93 sites in 17 countries across contrasted agroecologies in sub-Saharan Africa (>13,000 farm households) and analyzed the drivers of variations in food availability. Crop production was the major source of energy, contributing 60% of food availability. The off-farm income contribution to food availability ranged from 12% for households without enough food available (18% of the total sample) to 27% for the 58% of households with sufficient food available. Using only three explanatory variables (household size, number of livestock, and land area), we were able to predict correctly the agricultural determined status of food availability for 72% of the households, but the relationships were strongly influenced by the degree of market access. Our analyses suggest that targeting poverty through improving market access and off-farm opportunities is a better strategy to increase food security than focusing on agricultural production and closing yield gaps. This calls for multisectoral policy harmonization, incentives, and diversification of employment sources rather than a singular focus on agricultural development. Recognizing and understanding diversity among smallholder farm households in sub-Saharan Africa is key for the design of policies that aim to improve food security.

Soil carbon stocks are commonly quantified at fixed depths as the product of soil bulk density, depth and organic carbon (OC) concentration. However, this method systematically overestimates OC stocks in treatments with greater bulk densities such as minimum tillage, exaggerating their benefits. Its use has compromised estimates of OC change where bulk densities differed between treatments or over time periods. We argue that its use should be discontinued and a considerable body of past research re‐evaluated. Accurate OC estimations must be based on quantification in equivalent soil masses (ESMs). The objective of this publication is to encourage accurate quantification of changes in OC stocks and other soil properties using ESM procedures by developing a simple procedure to quantify OC in multiple soil layers. We explain errors inherent in fixed depth procedures and show how these errors are eliminated using ESM methods. We describe a new ESM procedure for calculating OC stocks in multiple soil layers and show that it can be implemented without bulk density sampling, which reduces sampling time and facilitates evaluations at greater depths, where bulk density sampling is difficult. A spreadsheet has been developed to facilitate calculations. A sample adjustment procedure is described to facilitate OC quantification in a single equivalent soil mass layer from the surface, when multiple‐layer quantification is not necessary.

The combined application of organic resources (ORs) and mineral fertilizers is increasingly gaining recognition as a viable approach to address soil fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We conducted a meta-analysis to provide a comprehensive and quantitative synthesis of conditions under which ORs, N fertilizers, and combined ORs with N fertilizers positively or negatively influence Zea mays (maize) yields, agronomic N use efficiency and soil organic C (SOC) in SSA. Four OR quality classes were assessed; classes I (high quality) and II (intermediate quality) had >2.5% N while classes III (intermediate quality) and IV (low quality) had <2.5% N and classes I and III had <4% polyphenol and <15% lignin. On the average, yield responses over the control were 60%, 84% and 114% following the addition of ORs, N fertilizers and ORs + N fertilizers, respectively. There was a general increase in yield responses with increasing OR quality and OR-N quantity, both when ORs were added alone or with N fertilizers. Surprisingly, greater OR residual effects were observed with high quality ORs and declined with decreasing OR quality. The greater yield responses with ORs + N fertilizers than either resource alone were mostly due to extra N added and not improved N utilization efficiency because negative interactive effects were, most often, observed when combining ORs with N fertilizers. Additionally, their agronomic N use efficiency was not different from sole added ORs but lower than N fertilizers added alone. Nevertheless, positive interactive effects were observed in sandy soils with low quality ORs whereas agronomic use efficiency was greater when smaller quantities of N were added in all soils. Compared to sole added ORs, yield responses for the combined treatment increased with decreasing OR quality and greater yield increases were observed in sandy (68%) than clayey soils (25%). While ORs and ORs + N fertilizer additions increased SOC by at least 12% compared to the control, N fertilizer additions were not different from control suggesting that ORs are needed to increase SOC. Thus, the addition of ORs will likely improve nutrient storage while crop yields are increased and more so for high quality ORs. Furthermore, interactive effects are seldom occurring, but agronomic N use efficiency of ORs + N fertilizers were greater with low quantities of N added, offering potential for increasing crop productivity.

Aggarwal, P. K., A. Jarvis, B. M. Campbell, R. B. Zougmoré, A. Khatri-Chhetri, S. J. Vermeulen, A. Loboguerrero, L. S. Sebastian, J. Kinyangi, O. Bonilla-Findji, M. Radeny, J. Recha, D. Martinez-Baron, J. Ramirez-Villegas, S. Huyer, P. Thornton, E. Wollenberg, J. Hansen, P. Alvarez-Toro, A. Aguilar-Ariza, D. Arango-Londoño, V. Patiño-Bravo, O. Rivera, M. Ouedraogo and B. Tan Yen. 2018. The climate-smart village approach: framework of an integrative strategy for scaling up adaptation options in agriculture. Ecology and Society 23(1):14. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09844-230114

Improved understanding of soil fertility factors limiting crop productivity is important to develop appropriate soil and nutrient management recommendations in sub-Saharan Africa. Diagnostic trials were implemented in Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria and Tanzania, as part of the African Soils Information Service (AfSIS) project, to identify soil fertility constraints to crop production across various cropping systems and soil fertility conditions. In each country, one to three sites of 10 km × 10 km were included with each site having 12-31 field trials. The treatments tested included a control, an NPK treatment, three treatments in which the N, P and K nutrients were omitted one at a time from the NPK treatment, and three treatments in which secondary and micronutrients (Ca, Mg, S, Zn and B) simply referred here as multi-nutrients, manure and lime were added to the NPK. The field trials were conducted for 1-2 seasons; the test crop was maize except in Mali where sorghum was used. Nitrogen was limiting in all sites and generally the most limiting nutrient except in Sidindi (Kenya) and Kontela (Mali) where P was the most limiting. The general pattern in Kiberashi (Tanzania) shows none of the nutrients were limiting. K is mainly limiting in only one site (Mbinga) although incidences of K limitation were seen in almost all sites. Addition of multi-nutrients and manure further improved the yields of NPK in most sites. Cluster analyses revealed that maize crop in 11% of fields were highly responsive to nitrogen application, 25% (i.e., 21% poor and 4% fertile) 'non-responsive' to any nutrient or soil amendment, 28% being 'low responsive' and 36% of 'intermediate response'. This study indicates that constraints to crop production vary considerably even within a site, and that addressing limitations in secondary and micronutrients, and increasing soil carbon can improve response to fertilizers. For sustainable crop production intensification in smallholder farming systems in SSA, there is need to develop management strategies to improve efficiency of fertilizer use and of other inputs, recognizing the site-specific nutrient response patterns at various spatial scales.

When assessing soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and its climate change (CC) mitigation potential at global scale, the dynamic nature of soil carbon storage and interventions to foster it should be taken into account. Firstly, adoption of SOC-sequestration measures will take time, and reasonably such schemes could only be implemented gradually at large-scale. Secondly, if soils are managed as carbon sinks, then SOC will increase only over a limited time, up to the point when a new SOC equilibrium is reached. This paper combines these two processes and predicts potential SOC sequestration dynamics in agricultural land at global scale and the corresponding CC mitigation potential. Assuming that global governments would agree on a worldwide effort to gradually change land use practices towards turning agricultural soils into carbon sinks starting 2014, the projected 87-year (2014-2100) global SOC sequestration potential of agricultural land ranged between 31 and 64 Gt. This is equal to 1.9-3.9% of the SRES-A2 projected 87-year anthropogenic emissions. SOC sequestration would peak 2032-33, at that time reaching 4.3-8.9% of the projected annual SRES-A2 emission. About 30 years later the sequestration rate would have reduced by half. Thus, SOC sequestration is not a C wedge that could contribute increasingly to mitigating CC. Rather, the mitigation potential is limited, contributing very little to solving the climate problem of the coming decades. However, we deliberately did not elaborate on the importance of maintaining or increasing SOC for sustaining soil health, agro-ecosystem functioning and productivity; an issue of global significance that deserves proper consideration irrespectively of any potential additional sequestration of SOC.

There is a need for up-to-date assessments and maps of soil properties and land health at scales relevant for decision-making and management, including for properties that are dynamic and hence change in response to management. Also, there is a need for approaches to soil mapping that capture the ever increasing effects that humans are having on the environment in general and specifically on soil properties worldwide. In this paper, we develop models for digital soil mapping based on remote sensing data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) platform for Africa. The article presents maps of soil organic carbon (SOC), pH, sand and sum of exchangeable bases, as well as prevalence of root-depth restrictions in the upper 50 cm of the soil profile. Prediction models were developed based on spatially balanced field survey data, representing all major climate zones on the continent. The prediction models for soil property mapping performed well, with overall RMSEP values of 10.6, 0.34, 9.1, and 6.5 for SOC, pH, sand, and sum of bases, respectively. The accuracy of the prediction model for root-depth restrictions was 77%, with an AUC of 0.85 and Cohen's kappa value of 0.52 when averaged across predictions run on independent test data. The methods and maps developed can provide much improved identification of soil and land health constraints, and spatial targeting of land management interventions at various scales, informing both policy and practice.

Adapting to climate risks is central to the goal of increasing food security and enhancing resilience of farming systems in East Africa. We examined farmers’ attitudes and assessed determinants of adaptation using data from a random sample of 500 households in Borana, Ethiopia, Nyando, Kenya, Hoima Uganda, and Lushoto, Tanzania. Adaptation was measured using a livelihood-based index that assigned weights to different individual strategies based on their marginal contributions to a household’s livelihood. Results showed that farmers’ attitudes across the four sites strongly favored introduction of new crops, changes in varieties, and changes in planting times. Farmers disfavored soil, land, and water management practices. At lower levels of adaptation (25% quantile), adaptation index correlated positively with membership to farmers’ groups, household size, sex of the household, and number of months of food shortage. Membership to farmers’ groups enhanced adaptation at intermediate (50% quantile) level whereas access to credit increased adaptation at high (75% quantile) level. Food insecurity, however, correlated negatively with the likelihood to choose individual adaptation strategies suggesting that although households adapted to improve food security status of their households, hunger was a barrier to adaptation. Our findings suggest that providing climate information to inform timely planting, promoting crop diversification, and encouraging adoption of adapted varieties of crops might be successful to enhancing resilience of farming systems in the short-term. In the long-term, increased investment in reducing hunger, encouraging groups formation, and easing liquidity constraints will be required to promote adaptation through implementation of soil, water, and land management strategies

BACKGROUND: Malaria was once one of the most serious public health problems in China. However, the disease burden has sharply declined and epidemic areas have shrunk after the implementation of an integrated malaria control and elimination strategy, especially since 2000. In this review, the lessons were distilled from the Chinese national malaria elimination programme and further efforts to mitigate the challenges of malaria resurgence are being discussed. METHODS: A retrospective evaluation was performed to assess the changes in malaria epidemic patterns from 1950 to 2017 at national level. The malaria data before 2004 were collected from paper-based annual reports. After 2004, each of the different cases from the Infectious Diseases Information Reporting Management System (IDIRMS) was closely examined and scrutinized. An additional documenting system, the National Information Management System for Malaria, established in 2012 to document the interventions of three parasitic diseases, was also examined to complete the missing data from IDIRMS. RESULTS: From 1950 to 2017, the occurrence of indigenous malaria has been steeply reduced, and malaria-epidemic regions have substantially shrunk, especially after the launch of the national malaria elimination programme. There were approximately 30 million malaria cases annually before 1949 with a mortality rate of 1%. A total of 5999 indigenous cases were documented from 2010 to 2016, with a drastic reduction of 99% over the 6 years (2010, n = 4262; 2016, n = 3). There were indigenous cases reported in 303 counties from 18 provinces in 2010, but only 3 indigenous cases were reported in 2 provinces nationwide in 2016. While in 2017, for the first time, zero indigenous case was reported in China, and only 7 of imported cases were in individuals who died of Plasmodium falciparum infection. CONCLUSION: Malaria elimination in China is a country-led and country-owned endeavour. The country-own efforts were a clear national elimination strategy, supported by two systems, namely a case-based surveillance and response system and reference laboratory system. The country-led efforts were regional and inter-sectoral collaboration as well as sustained monitoring and evaluation. However, there are still some challenges, such as the maintenance of non-transmission status, the implementation of a qualified verification and assessment system, and the management of imported cases in border areas, through regional cooperation. The findings from this review can probably help improving malaria surveillance systems in China, but also in other elimination countries.