International Institute of Tropical Agriculture

Abstract A new release of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI‐ESM1.2) is presented. The development focused on correcting errors in and improving the physical processes representation, as well as improving the computational performance, versatility, and overall user friendliness. In addition to new radiation and aerosol parameterizations of the atmosphere, several relatively large, but partly compensating, coding errors in the model's cloud, convection, and turbulence parameterizations were corrected. The representation of land processes was refined by introducing a multilayer soil hydrology scheme, extending the land biogeochemistry to include the nitrogen cycle, replacing the soil and litter decomposition model and improving the representation of wildfires. The ocean biogeochemistry now represents cyanobacteria prognostically in order to capture the response of nitrogen fixation to changing climate conditions and further includes improved detritus settling and numerous other refinements. As something new, in addition to limiting drift and minimizing certain biases, the instrumental record warming was explicitly taken into account during the tuning process. To this end, a very high climate sensitivity of around 7 K caused by low‐level clouds in the tropics as found in an intermediate model version was addressed, as it was not deemed possible to match observed warming otherwise. As a result, the model has a climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO 2 over preindustrial conditions of 2.77 K, maintaining the previously identified highly nonlinear global mean response to increasing CO 2 forcing, which nonetheless can be represented by a simple two‐layer model.

Sequencing of Medicago truncatula, a model organism of legume biology, shows that genome duplications had a role in the evolution of endosymbiotic nitrogen fixation. Legumes are unusual among plants in that they can carry out endosymbiotic nitrogen fixation with rhizobial bacteria. The genome of Medicago truncatula (also known as barrel medic or barrel clover), a well-established model for the study of legume biology, has now been sequenced. Genome analysis shows that M. truncatula has undergone several rounds of whole-genome duplication, and that the duplication that took place approximately 58 million years ago played an important part in the evolution of endosymbiotic nitrogen fixation. Legumes (Fabaceae or Leguminosae) are unique among cultivated plants for their ability to carry out endosymbiotic nitrogen fixation with rhizobial bacteria, a process that takes place in a specialized structure known as the nodule. Legumes belong to one of the two main groups of eurosids, the Fabidae, which includes most species capable of endosymbiotic nitrogen fixation1. Legumes comprise several evolutionary lineages derived from a common ancestor 60 million years ago (Myr ago). Papilionoids are the largest clade, dating nearly to the origin of legumes and containing most cultivated species2. Medicago truncatula is a long-established model for the study of legume biology. Here we describe the draft sequence of the M. truncatula euchromatin based on a recently completed BAC assembly supplemented with Illumina shotgun sequence, together capturing ∼94% of all M. truncatula genes. A whole-genome duplication (WGD) approximately 58 Myr ago had a major role in shaping the M. truncatula genome and thereby contributed to the evolution of endosymbiotic nitrogen fixation. Subsequent to the WGD, the M. truncatula genome experienced higher levels of rearrangement than two other sequenced legumes, Glycine max and Lotus japonicus. M. truncatula is a close relative of alfalfa (Medicago sativa), a widely cultivated crop with limited genomics tools and complex autotetraploid genetics. As such, the M. truncatula genome sequence provides significant opportunities to expand alfalfa’s genomic toolbox.

Abstract. Intensification of smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is necessary to address rural poverty and natural resource degradation. Integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) is a means to enhance crop productivity while maximizing the agronomic efficiency (AE) of applied inputs, and can thus contribute to sustainable intensification. ISFM consists of a set of best practices, preferably used in combination, including the use of appropriate germplasm, the appropriate use of fertilizer and of organic resources, and good agronomic practices. The large variability in soil fertility conditions within smallholder farms is also recognized within ISFM, including soils with constraints beyond those addressed by fertilizer and organic inputs. The variable biophysical environments that characterize smallholder farming systems have profound effects on crop productivity and AE, and targeted application of agro-inputs and management practices is necessary to enhance AE. Further, management decisions depend on the farmer's resource endowments and production objectives. In this paper we discuss the "local adaptation" component of ISFM and how this can be conceptualized within an ISFM framework, backstopped by analysis of AE at plot and farm level. At plot level, a set of four constraints to maximum AE is discussed in relation to "local adaptation": soil acidity, secondary nutrient and micronutrient (SMN) deficiencies, physical constraints, and drought stress. In each of these cases, examples are presented whereby amendments and/or practices addressing these have a significantly positive impact on fertilizer AE, including mechanistic principles underlying these effects. While the impact of such amendments and/or practices is easily understood for some practices (e.g. the application of SMNs where these are limiting), for others, more complex processes influence AE (e.g. water harvesting under varying rainfall conditions). At farm scale, adjusting fertilizer applications to within-farm soil fertility gradients has the potential to increase AE compared with blanket recommendations, in particular where fertility gradients are strong. In the final section, "local adaption" is discussed in relation to scale issues and decision support tools are evaluated as a means to create a better understanding of complexity at farm level and to communicate appropriate scenarios for allocating agro-inputs and management practices within heterogeneous farming environments.

Global support for Conservation Agriculture (CA) as a pathway to Sustainable Intensification is strong. CA revolves around three principles: no-till (or minimal soil disturbance), soil cover, and crop rotation. The benefits arising from the ease of crop management, energy/cost/time savings, and soil and water conservation led to widespread adoption of CA, particularly on large farms in the Americas and Australia, where farmers harness the tools of modern science: highly-sophisticated machines, potent agrochemicals, and biotechnology. Over the past 10 years CA has been promoted among smallholder farmers in the (sub-) tropics, often with disappointing results. Growing evidence challenges the claims that CA increases crop yields and builds-up soil carbon although increased stability of crop yields in dry climates is evident. Our analyses suggest pragmatic adoption on larger mechanized farms, and limited uptake of CA by smallholder farmers in developing countries. We propose a rigorous, context-sensitive approach based on Systems Agronomy to analyze and explore sustainable intensification options, including the potential of CA. There is an urgent need to move beyond dogma and prescriptive approaches to provide soil and crop management options for farmers to enable the Sustainable Intensification of agriculture.

Cassava (Manihot esculenta) provides calories and nutrition for more than half a billion people. It was domesticated by native Amazonian peoples through cultivation of the wild progenitor M. esculenta ssp. flabellifolia and is now grown in tropical regions worldwide. Here we provide a high-quality genome assembly for cassava with improved contiguity, linkage, and completeness; almost 97% of genes are anchored to chromosomes. We find that paleotetraploidy in cassava is shared with the related rubber tree Hevea, providing a resource for comparative studies. We also sequence a global collection of 58 Manihot accessions, including cultivated and wild cassava accessions and related species such as Ceará or India rubber (M. glaziovii), and genotype 268 African cassava varieties. We find widespread interspecific admixture, and detect the genetic signature of past cassava breeding programs. As a clonally propagated crop, cassava is especially vulnerable to pathogens and abiotic stresses. This genomic resource will inform future genome-enabled breeding efforts to improve this staple crop.

For all living organisms, nitrogen is an essential element, while being the most limiting in ecosystems and for crop production. Despite the significant contribution of synthetic fertilizers, nitrogen requirements for food production increase from year to year, while the overuse of agrochemicals compromise soil health and agricultural sustainability. One alternative to overcome this problem is biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). Indeed, more than 60% of the fixed N on Earth results from BNF. Therefore, optimizing BNF in agriculture is more and more urgent to help meet the demand of the food production needs for the growing world population. This optimization will require a good knowledge of the diversity of nitrogen-fixing microorganisms, the mechanisms of fixation, and the selection and formulation of efficient N-fixing microorganisms as biofertilizers. Good understanding of BNF process may allow the transfer of this ability to other non-fixing microorganisms or to non-leguminous plants with high added value. This minireview covers a brief history on BNF, cycle and mechanisms of nitrogen fixation, biofertilizers market value, and use of biofertilizers in agriculture. The minireview focuses particularly on some of the most effective microbial products marketed to date, their efficiency, and success-limiting in agriculture. It also highlights opportunities and difficulties of transferring nitrogen fixation capacity in cereals.

Anthropogenic activities profoundly impact soil organic carbon (SOC), affecting its contribution to ecosystem services such as climate regulation. Here, we conducted a thorough review of the impacts of land-use change, land management, and climate change on SOC. Using second-order meta-analysis, we synthesized findings from 230 first-order meta-analyses comprising over 25,000 primary studies. We show that (i) land conversion for crop production leads to high SOC loss, that can be partially restored through land management practices, particularly by introducing trees and incorporating exogenous carbon in the form of biochar or organic amendments, (ii) land management practices that are implemented in forests generally result in depletion of SOC, and (iii) indirect effects of climate change, such as through wildfires, have a greater impact on SOC than direct climate change effects (e.g., from rising temperatures). The findings of our study provide strong evidence to assist decision-makers in safeguarding SOC stocks and promoting land management practices for SOC restoration. Furthermore, they serve as a crucial research roadmap, identifying areas that require attention to fill the knowledge gaps concerning the factors driving changes in SOC.

Abstract Presence of the integrated endogenous banana streak virus (eBSV) in the B genome of plantain (AAB) is a major challenge for breeding and dissemination of hybrids. As the eBSV activates into infectious viral particles under stress, the progenitor Musa balbisiana and its derivants, having at least one B genome, cannot be used as parents for crop improvement. Here, we report a strategy to inactivate the eBSV by editing the virus sequences. The regenerated genome-edited events of Gonja Manjaya showed mutations in the targeted sites with the potential to prevent proper transcription or/and translational into functional viral proteins. Seventy-five percent of the edited events remained asymptomatic in comparison to the non-edited control plants under water stress conditions, confirming inactivation of eBSV into infectious viral particles. This study paves the way for the improvement of B genome germplasm and its use in breeding programs to produce hybrids that can be globally disseminated.

Nitrogen (N) fixation through legume-Rhizobium symbiosis is important for enhancing agricultural productivity and is therefore of great economic interest. Growing evidence indicates that other soil beneficial bacteria can positively affect symbiotic performance of rhizobia. Nodule endophytic plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR) were isolated from common bean nodules from Nakuru County in Kenya and characterized 16S rDNA partial gene sequencing. The effect of co-inoculation of rhizobium and PGPR, on nodulation and growth of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) was also investigated using a low phosphorous soil under greenhouse conditions. Gram positive nodule endophytic PGPR belonging to the genus Bacillus were successfully isolated and characterized. Two PGPR strains (Paenibacillus polymyxa and Bacillus megaterium), two rhizobia strains (IITA-PAU 987 and IITA-PAU 983) and one reference rhizobia strain (CIAT 899) were used in the co-inoculation study. Two common bean varieties were inoculated with Rhizobium strains singly or in a combination with PGPR to evaluate the effect on nodulation and growth parameters. Co-inoculation of IITA-PAU 987 + B. megaterium recorded the highest nodule weight (405.2 mg) compared to IITA-PAU 987 alone (324.8 mg), while CIAT 899 + B. megaterium (401.2 mg) compared to CIAT 899 alone (337.2 mg). CIAT 899 + B. megaterium recorded a significantly higher shoot dry weight (7.23 g) compared to CIAT 899 alone (5.80 g). However, there was no significant difference between CIAT 899 + P. polymyxa and CIAT 899 alone. Combination of IITA-PAU 987 and B. megaterium led to significantly higher shoot dry weight (6.84 g) compared to IITA-PAU 987 alone (5.32 g) but no significant difference was observed when co-inoculated with P. polymyxa. IITA-PAU 983 in combination with P. polymyxa led to significantly higher shoot dry weight (7.15 g) compared to IITA-PAU 983 alone (5.14 g). Plants inoculated with IITA-PAU 987 and B. megaterium received 24.0 % of their nitrogen demand from atmosphere, which showed a 31.1 % increase compared to rhizobium alone. Contrast analysis confirmed the difference between the co-inoculation of rhizobia strains and PGPR compared to single rhizobia inoculation on the root dry weight. These results show that co-inoculation of PGPR and Rhibozia has a synergistic effect

, which are found in diverse agricultural crops. In many lower-income countries, aflatoxins pose serious public health issues since the occurrence of these toxins can be considerably common and even extreme. Aflatoxins can negatively affect health of livestock and poultry due to contaminated feeds. Additionally, they significantly limit the development of international trade as a result of strict regulation in high-value markets. Due to their high stability, aflatoxins are not only a problem during cropping, but also during storage, transport, processing, and handling steps. Consequently, innovative evidence-based technologies are urgently required to minimize aflatoxin exposure. Thus far, biological control has been developed as the most innovative potential technology of controlling aflatoxin contamination in crops, which uses competitive exclusion of toxigenic strains by non-toxigenic ones. This technology is commercially applied in groundnuts maize, cottonseed, and pistachios during pre-harvest stages. Some other effective technologies such as irradiation, ozone fumigation, chemical and biological control agents, and improved packaging materials can also minimize post-harvest aflatoxins contamination in agricultural products. However, integrated adoption of these pre- and post-harvest technologies is still required for sustainable solutions to reduce aflatoxins contamination, which enhances food security, alleviates malnutrition, and strengthens economic sustainability.

Aflatoxin contamination of crops is frequent in warm regions across the globe, including large areas in sub-Saharan Africa. Crop contamination with these dangerous toxins transcends health, food security, and trade sectors. It cuts across the value chain, affecting farmers, traders, markets, and finally consumers. Diverse fungi within Aspergillus section Flavi contaminate crops with aflatoxins. Within these Aspergillus communities, several genotypes are not capable of producing aflatoxins (atoxigenic). Carefully selected atoxigenic genotypes in biological control (biocontrol) formulations efficiently reduce aflatoxin contamination of crops when applied prior to flowering in the field. This safe and environmentally friendly, effective technology was pioneered in the US, where well over a million acres of susceptible crops are treated annually. The technology has been improved for use in sub-Saharan Africa, where efforts are under way to develop biocontrol products, under the trade name Aflasafe, for 11 African nations. The number of participating nations is expected to increase. In parallel, state of the art technology has been developed for large-scale inexpensive manufacture of Aflasafe products under the conditions present in many African nations. Results to date indicate that all Aflasafe products, registered and under experimental use, reduce aflatoxin concentrations in treated crops by >80% in comparison to untreated crops in both field and storage conditions. Benefits of aflatoxin biocontrol technologies are discussed along with potential challenges, including climate change, likely to be faced during the scaling-up of Aflasafe products. Lastly, we respond to several apprehensions expressed in the literature about the use of atoxigenic genotypes in biocontrol formulations. These responses relate to the following apprehensions: sorghum as carrier, distribution costs, aflatoxin-conscious markets, efficacy during drought, post-harvest benefits, risk of allergies and/or aspergillosis, influence of Aflasafe on other mycotoxins and on soil microenvironment, dynamics of Aspergillus genotypes, and recombination between atoxigenic and toxigenic genotypes in natural conditions.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is a region beset with challenges, not least its ability to feed itself. Low agricultural productivity, exploding populations, and escalating urbanization have led to declining per capita food availability. In order to reverse this trend, crop production systems must intensify, which brings with it an elevated threat from pests and diseases, including plant-parasitic nematodes. A holistic systems approach to pest management recognizes disciplinary integration. However, a critical under-representation of nematology expertise is a pivotal shortcoming, especially given the magnitude of the threat nematodes pose under more intensified systems. With more volatile climates, efficient use of water by healthy root systems is especially crucial. Within SSA, smallholder farming systems dominate the agricultural landscape, where a limited understanding of nematode problems prevails. This review provides a synopsis of current nematode challenges facing SSA and presents the opportunities to overcome current shortcomings, including a means to increase nematology capacity.

Grain legumes play a key role in smallholder farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), in relation to food and nutrition security and income generation. Moreover, because of their N2-fixation capacity, such legumes can also have a positive influence on soil fertility. Notwithstanding many decades of research on the agronomy of grain legumes, their N2-fixation capacity, and their contribution to overall system productivity, several issues remain to be resolved to realize fully the benefits of grain legumes. In this paper we highlight major lessons learnt and expose key knowledge gaps in relation to grain legumes and their contributions to farming system productivity. The symbiosis between legumes and rhizobia forms the basis for its benefits and biological N2-fixation (BNF) relies as much on the legume genotype as on the rhizobial strains. As such, breeding grain legumes for BNF deserves considerably more attention. Even promiscuous varieties usually respond to inoculation, and as African soils contain a huge pool of unexploited biodiversity with potential to contribute elite rhizobial strains, strain selection should go hand-in-hand with legume breeding for N2-fixation. Although inoculated strains can outcompete indigenous strains, our understanding of what constitutes a good competitor is rudimentary, as well as which factors affect the persistence of inoculated rhizobia, which in its turn determines whether a farmer needs to re-inoculate each and every season. Although it is commonly assumed that indigenous rhizobia are better adapted to local conditions than elite strains used in inoculants, there is little evidence that this is the case. The problems of delivering inoculants to smallholders through poorly-developed supply chains in Africa necessitates inoculants based on sterile carriers with long shelf life. Other factors critical for a well-functioning symbiosis are also central to the overall productivity of grain legumes. Good agronomic practices, including the use of phosphorus (P)-containing fertilizer, improve legume yields though responses to inputs are usually very variable. In some situations, a considerable proportion of soils show no response of legumes to applied inputs, often referred to as non-responsive soils. Understanding the causes underlying this phenomenon is limited and hinders the uptake of legume agronomy practices. Grain legumes also contribute to the productivity of farming systems, although such effects are commonly greater in rotational than in intercropping systems. While most cropping systems allow for the integration of legumes, intercropped legumes provide only marginal benefits to associated crops. Important rotational benefits have been shown for most grain legumes though those with the highest N accumulation and lowest N harvest index appear to demonstrate higher residual benefits. N balance estimates often results in contradictory observations, mostly caused by the lack of understanding of belowground contributions of legumes to the N balance. Lastly, the ultimate condition for increased uptake of grain legumes by smallholder farmers lies in the understanding of how legume technologies and management practices can be tailored to the enormous diversity of agroecologies, farming systems, and smallholder farms in SSA. In conclusion, while research on grain legumes has revealed a number of important insights that will guide realization of the full potential of such legumes to the sustainable intensification of smallholder farming systems in SSA, many research challenges remain to be addressed to realize the full potential of BNF in these systems.

Application of biochar has been shown to increase soil fertility and enable soil carbon sequestration, indicating potential for agricultural and environmental benefits from using locally produced biochar on African smallholder farms. However, previous studies have been rather short-term and little is known about the longer-term effects of biochar application on crop yields. Biochar contains ash, but the potential liming effect and nutrient release from ash may be short-lasting. To investigate long-term effects, we set up a series of field trials replicated at three sites in Kenya in 2006. The trials are still on-going and are possibly the longest biochar trials in sub-Saharan Africa. Here, we report effects on crop yield and soil properties over 10 years after applying biochar, produced mainly from Acacia spp., at a rate of 50 + 50 Mg ha−1 during the first two seasons. Maize (Zea mays) and soybean (Glycine max) were grown in rotation, with or without inorganic fertiliser, and crop yield was monitored. For comparison of soil properties, additional plots were kept in bare fallow. Biochar addition slightly increased soil porosity, pH, plant-available phosphorus and soil water-holding capacity. Crop yield responded positively to biochar at all sites and yield responses were similar with and without mineral fertiliser, i.e., the effects of biochar and mineral fertiliser were additive. The seasonal yield increase due to biochar application was in average around 1.2 Mg ha−1 for maize and 0.4 Mg for soybean, independently of fertilisation, over seasons and sites. Application of mineral fertiliser to maize increased maize yield by 1.6 Mg ha−1 and the subsequent, unfertilized soybean yield by 0.6 Mg ha−1, illustrating a carry-over effect. Most importantly, the effect on maize and soybean yield of adding biochar to soil persisted over the whole 10-year period. Analysis of the carbon (C) balance in topsoil indicated that about 40% of biochar C was apparently lost through mineralization, erosion or vertical translocation. Moreover, changes in soil carbon/nitrogen ratios indicated that biochar application increased nitrogen mineralization from native soil organic matter.

-fixation by grain legumes and residual N benefits should focus on explaining the wide variability observed among sites. There is a clear need for more detailed mechanistic studies to assess the occurrence and relevance of non-N effects of grain legumes, particularly in relation to common pests and diseases in cereals.

Improved understanding of soil fertility factors limiting crop productivity is important to develop appropriate soil and nutrient management recommendations in sub-Saharan Africa. Diagnostic trials were implemented in Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria and Tanzania, as part of the African Soils Information Service (AfSIS) project, to identify soil fertility constraints to crop production across various cropping systems and soil fertility conditions. In each country, one to three sites of 10 km × 10 km were included with each site having 12-31 field trials. The treatments tested included a control, an NPK treatment, three treatments in which the N, P and K nutrients were omitted one at a time from the NPK treatment, and three treatments in which secondary and micronutrients (Ca, Mg, S, Zn and B) simply referred here as multi-nutrients, manure and lime were added to the NPK. The field trials were conducted for 1-2 seasons; the test crop was maize except in Mali where sorghum was used. Nitrogen was limiting in all sites and generally the most limiting nutrient except in Sidindi (Kenya) and Kontela (Mali) where P was the most limiting. The general pattern in Kiberashi (Tanzania) shows none of the nutrients were limiting. K is mainly limiting in only one site (Mbinga) although incidences of K limitation were seen in almost all sites. Addition of multi-nutrients and manure further improved the yields of NPK in most sites. Cluster analyses revealed that maize crop in 11% of fields were highly responsive to nitrogen application, 25% (i.e., 21% poor and 4% fertile) 'non-responsive' to any nutrient or soil amendment, 28% being 'low responsive' and 36% of 'intermediate response'. This study indicates that constraints to crop production vary considerably even within a site, and that addressing limitations in secondary and micronutrients, and increasing soil carbon can improve response to fertilizers. For sustainable crop production intensification in smallholder farming systems in SSA, there is need to develop management strategies to improve efficiency of fertilizer use and of other inputs, recognizing the site-specific nutrient response patterns at various spatial scales.

Major drivers of gains or losses in soil organic carbon (SOC) include land management, land-use change, and climate change. Thousands of original studies have focused on these drivers of SOC change and are now compiled in a growing number of meta-analyses. To critically assess the research efforts in this domain, we retrieved and characterized 192 meta-analyses of SOC stocks or concentrations. These meta-analyses comprise more than 13,200 original studies conducted from 1910 to 2020 in 150 countries. First, we show that, despite a growing number of studies over time, the geographical coverage of studies is limited. For example, the effect of land management, land-use change, and climate change on SOC has been only occasionally studied in North and Central Africa, and in the Middle East and Central Asia. Second, the meta-analyses investigated a limited number of land management practices, mostly mineral fertilization, organic amendments, and tillage. Third, the meta-analyses demonstrated relatively low quality and transparency. Lastly, we discuss the mismatch between the increasing number of studies and the need for more local, reusable, and diversified knowledge on how to preserve high SOC stocks or restore depleted SOC stocks.

Cassava is an important crop in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean. Cassava can be produced adequately in drought conditions making it the ideal food security crop in marginal environments. Although cassava can tolerate drought stress, it can be genetically improved to enhance productivity in such environments. Drought adaptation studies in over three decades in cassava have identified relevant mechanisms which have been explored in conventional breeding. Drought is a quantitative trait and its multigenic nature makes it very challenging to effectively manipulate and combine genes in breeding for rapid genetic gain and selection process. Cassava has a long growth cycle of 12-18 months which invariably contributes to a long breeding scheme for the crop. Modern breeding using advances in genomics and improved genotyping, is facilitating the dissection and genetic analysis of complex traits including drought tolerance, thus helping to better elucidate and understand the genetic basis of such traits. A beneficial goal of new innovative breeding strategies is to shorten the breeding cycle using minimized, efficient or fast phenotyping protocols. While high throughput genotyping have been achieved, this is rarely the case for phenotyping for drought adaptation. Some of the storage root phenotyping in cassava are often done very late in the evaluation cycle making selection process very slow. This paper highlights some modified traits suitable for early-growth phase phenotyping that may be used to reduce drought phenotyping cycle in cassava. Such modified traits can significantly complement the high throughput genotyping procedures to fast track breeding of improved drought tolerant varieties. The need for metabolite profiling, improved phenomics to take advantage of next generation sequencing technologies and high throughput phenotyping are basic steps for future direction to improve genetic gain and maximize speed for drought tolerance breeding.

Nutrient limitation is a major constraint in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Here, we propose a generic and simple equilibrium model to estimate minimum input requirements of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium for target yields in cereal crops under highly efficient management. The model was combined with Global Yield Gap Atlas data to explore minimum input requirements for self-sufficiency in 2050 for maize in nine countries in SSA. We estimate that yields have to increase from the current ca. 20% of water-limited yield potential to approximately 50–75% of the potential depending on the scenario investigated. Minimum nutrient input requirements must rise disproportionately more, with N input increasing 9-fold or 15-fold, because current production largely relies on soil nutrient mining, which cannot be sustained into the future.

Ecological intensification (EI) could help return agriculture into a ‘safe operating space’ for humanity. Using a novel application of meta-analysis to data from 30 long-term experiments from Europe and Africa (comprising 25,565 yield records), we investigated how field-scale EI practices interact with each other, and with N fertilizer and tillage, in their effects on long-term crop yields. Here we confirmed that EI practices (specifically, increasing crop diversity and adding fertility crops and organic matter) have generally positive effects on the yield of staple crops. However, we show that EI practices have a largely substitutive interaction with N fertilizer, so that EI practices substantially increase yield at low N fertilizer doses but have minimal or no effect on yield at high N fertilizer doses. EI practices had comparable effects across different tillage intensities, and reducing tillage did not strongly affect yields. Intensifying food production sustainably is critical given growing demand and agriculture’s environmental footprint. This meta-analysis finds that practices such as adding organic matter and increasing crop diversity can partly substitute for nitrogen fertilizer to sustain or increase yields.