International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center

Abstract Since its domestication some 9,000 years ago, maize ( Zea mays L.; corn) has played an increasing and diverse role in global agri-food systems. Global maize production has surged in the past few decades, propelled by rising demand and a combination of technological advances, yield increases and area expansion. Maize is already the leading cereal in terms of production volume and is set to become the most widely grown and traded crop in the coming decade. It is a versatile multi-purpose crop, primarily used as a feed globally, but also is important as a food crop, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, besides other non-food uses. This paper reviews maize production, consumption, and international trade to examine the changing trends in global supply and demand conditions over the past quarter century and the implications for research and development (R&D), particularly in the Global South. The inclusiveness and sustainability of the ongoing transformation of agri-food systems in the Global South merit particular attention. There is a need for further investments in R&D, particularly to enhance maize’s food and livelihood security roles and to sustainably intensify maize production while staying within the planetary boundaries.

Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.

In much of the world, resistance to stem rust in wheat, caused by Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici, is based at least in part on the gene Sr31. During February 1999, high levels of stem rust infection were observed on entries in wheat (Triticum aestivum) grown in a nursery at Kalengyere Research Station in Uganda. Because several of the rusted entries were known to carry the 1BL-1RS chromosome translocation containing the Sr31, Lr26, and Yr9 genes for rust resistance, virulence to Sr31 was suspected. Urediniospores, collected in bulk from rusted stems of seven entries containing Sr31, were suspended in light mineral oil and sprayed on primary leaves of 7-day-old seedlings of South African wheat cv. Gamtoos (=Veery #3, pedigree: Kvz/Buho‘S’//Kal/BB). Plants were kept overnight at 19 to 21°C in a dew chamber before placement in a greenhouse at 18 to 25°C. After ≈14 days, urediniospores were collected from large, susceptible-type stem rust pustules and subsequently increased on Gamtoos, which served as a selective host for the new rust culture, designated Pgt-Ug99. Pathogenicity of Pgt-Ug99 was studied in seedling tests of available wheats containing Sr31, as well as other stem rust differential lines. All seedling tests were conducted at least three times in independent inoculations. Isolate Pgt-Ug99 was not virulent to Avocet‘S’/Yr9 (Australian line containing Sr26) or Oom Charl (South African cultivar) but was virulent to the other Sr31 testers: Alondra ‘S’, Bobwhite, Chokka, Clement, Federation/Kavkaz, Gamtoos, Grebe, Kavkaz, Letaba, Line E/Kavkaz, RL6078, and Veery ‘S’. Virulence to Sr31 (infection types [ITs] 3 - 3 to 3 ++ 4) was clearly contrasted by the low reactions (ITs 0; to 1) produced by UVPgt53, a South African pathotype avirulent to Sr31. According to the reactions of the differential lines, Pgt-Ug99 is avirulent to Sr21, -22, -24, -25, -26, -27, -29, -32, -33, -34, -35, -36, -39, -40, -42, and -43, Agi, and Em and virulent to Sr5, -6, -7b, -8a, -8b, -9b, -9e, -9g, -11, -15, -17, -30, -31, and -38. Virulence to the T. ventricosum-derived gene Sr38, which is linked to Lr37 and Yr17 and occurs in cultivars from Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, was not known previously (1). Both Pgt-Ug99 and UVPgt53 produced a continuum of ITs (; to 2+3) on Petkus rye (obtained from the USDA-ARS National Small Grains Collection, Aberdeen, ID), the original Sr31 donor source. Pgt-Ug99 did not appear more virulent than UVPgt53 on Petkus. All triticales tested, as well as oat cv. Overberg, were highly resistant to Pgt-Ug99. According to McIntosh et al. (1), Huerta-Espino mentioned a Sr31-virulent culture from Turkey, but this could not be confirmed. Should the Sr31-virulent pathotype migrate out of Uganda, it poses a major threat to wheat production in countries where the leading cultivars have resistance based on this gene. Reference: (1) R. A. McIntosh et al. 1995. Wheat Rusts: An Atlas of Resistance Genes. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, the Netherlands.

Agriculture and the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are highly sensitive to climatic variability. Drought, in particular, represents one of the most important natural factors contributing to malnutrition and famine in many parts of the region. The overall impact of drought on a given country/region and its ability to recover from the resulting social, economic and environmental impacts depends on several factors. The economic, social and environmental impacts of drought are huge in SSA and the national costs and losses incurred threaten to undermine the wider economic and development gains made in the last few decades in the region. There is an urgent need to reduce the vulnerability of countries to climate variability and to the threats posed by climate change. This paper attempts to highlight the challenges of drought in SSA and reviews the current drought risk management strategies, especially the promising technological and policy options for managing drought risks to protect livelihoods and reduce vulnerability. The review suggests the possibilities of several ex ante and ex post drought management strategies in SSA although their effectiveness depends on agro-climatic and socio-economic conditions. Existing technological, policy and institutional risk management measures need to be strengthened and integrated to manage drought ex ante and to minimize the ex post negative effects for vulnerable households and regions. A proactive approach that combines promising technological, institutional and policy solutions to manage the risks within vulnerable communities implemented by institutions operating at different levels (community, sub-national, and national) is considered to be the way forward for managing drought and climate variability.

Climate change has generated unpredictability in the timing and amount of rain, as well as extreme heat and cold spells that have affected grain yields worldwide and threaten food security. Sources of specific adaptation related to drought and heat, as well as associated breeding of genetic traits, will contribute to maintaining grain yields in dry and warm years. Increased crop photosynthesis and biomass have been achieved particularly through disease resistance and healthy leaves. Similarly, sources of drought and heat adaptation through extended photosynthesis and increased biomass would also greatly benefit crop improvement. Wheat landraces have been cultivated for thousands of years under the most extreme environmental conditions. They have also been cultivated in lower input farming systems for which adaptation traits, particularly those that increase the duration of photosynthesis, have been conserved. Landraces are a valuable source of genetic diversity and specific adaptation to local environmental conditions according to their place of origin. Evidence supports the hypothesis that landraces can provide sources of increased biomass and thousand kernel weight, both important traits for adaptation to tolerate drought and heat. Evaluation of wheat landraces stored in gene banks with highly beneficial untapped diversity and sources of stress adaptation, once characterized, should also be used for wheat improvement. Unified development of databases and promotion of data sharing among physiologists, pathologists, wheat quality scientists, national programmes, and breeders will greatly benefit wheat improvement for adaptation to climate change worldwide.

Race Ug99 (TTKSK) of Puccinia graminis f. sp. tritici, detected in Uganda in 1998, has been recognized as a serious threat to food security because it possesses combined virulence to a large number of resistance genes found in current widely grown wheat (Triticum aestivum) varieties and germplasm, leading to its potential for rapid spread and evolution. Since its initial detection, variants of the Ug99 lineage of stem rust have been discovered in Eastern and Southern African countries, Yemen, Iran, and Egypt. To date, eight races belonging to the Ug99 lineage are known. Increased pathogen monitoring activities have led to the identification of other races in Africa and Asia with additional virulence to commercially important resistance genes. This has led to localized but severe stem rust epidemics becoming common once again in East Africa due to the breakdown of race-specific resistance gene SrTmp, which was deployed recently in the 'Digalu' and 'Robin' varieties in Ethiopia and Kenya, respectively. Enhanced research in the last decade under the umbrella of the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative has identified various race-specific resistance genes that can be utilized, preferably in combinations, to develop resistant varieties. Research and development of improved wheat germplasm with complex adult plant resistance (APR) based on multiple slow-rusting genes has also progressed. Once only the Sr2 gene was known to confer slow rusting APR; now, four more genes-Sr55, Sr56, Sr57, and Sr58-have been characterized and additional quantitative trait loci identified. Cloning of some rust resistance genes opens new perspectives on rust control in the future through the development of multiple resistance gene cassettes. However, at present, disease-surveillance-based chemical control, large-scale deployment of new varieties with multiple race-specific genes or adequate levels of APR, and reducing the cultivation of susceptible varieties in rust hot-spot areas remains the best stem rust management strategy.

Wheat is grown worldwide in diverse geographical regions, environments, and production systems. Although many diseases and pests are known to reduce grain yield potential and quality, the three rusts and powdery mildew fungi have historically caused major crop losses and continue to remain economically important despite the widespread use of host resistance and fungicides. The evolution and fast spread of virulent and more aggressive race lineages of rust fungi have only worsened the situation. Fusarium head blight, leaf spotting diseases, and, more recently, wheat blast (in South America and Bangladesh) have become diseases of major importance in recent years largely because of intensive production systems, the expansion of conservation agriculture, undesirable crop rotations, or increased dependency on fungicides. High genetic diversity for race-specific and quantitative resistance is known for most diseases; their selection through phenotyping reinforced with molecular strategies offers great promise in achieving more durable resistance and enhancing global wheat productivity.

Maize became increasingly important in the food security of Ethiopia following the major drought and famine that occurred in 1984. More than 9 million smallholder households, more than for any other crop in the country, grow maize in Ethiopia at present. Ethiopia has doubled its maize productivity and production in less than two decades. The yield, currently estimated at >3 metric tons/ha, is the second highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, after South Africa; yield gains for Ethiopia grew at an annual rate of 68 kg/ha between 1990 and 2013, only second to South Africa and greater than Mexico, China, or India. The maize area covered by improved varieties in Ethiopia grew from 14 % in 2004 to 40 % in 2013, and the application rate of mineral fertilizers from 16 to 34 kg/ha during the same period. Ethiopia’s extension worker to farmer ratio is 1:476, compared to 1:1000 for Kenya, 1:1603 for Malawi and 1:2500 for Tanzania. Increased use of improved maize varieties and mineral fertilizers, coupled with increased extension services and the absence of devastating droughts are the key factors promoting the accelerated growth in maize productivity in Ethiopia. Ethiopia took a homegrown solutions approach to the research and development of its maize and other commodities. The lesson from Ethiopia’s experience with maize is that sustained investment in agricultural research and development and policy support by the national government are crucial for continued growth of agriculture.

In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), “maize is life,” due to its importance to food security and economic wellbeing. Around 40 % of Africa’s maize-growing area faces occasional drought stress, resulting in yield losses of 10–25 %. Around 25 % of the maize crop suffers frequent drought, with losses of up to half the harvest. To reduce vulnerability and improve food security, the Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa (DTMA) project has made releases of 160 drought tolerant (DT) maize varieties between 2007 and 2013. These have been tested in experimental and farmers’ fields, and disseminated to farmers in 13 African countries through national agricultural research systems and private seed companies. Yields of the new varieties are superior to those of currently available commercial maize varieties under both stress and optimum growing conditions. Although the benefits of DT maize for African farmers have been repeatedly predicted, realization of those benefits depends on farmer uptake, which has received limited empirical study. We use new plot-level data from surveys of 3,700 farm households in six countries (Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) to measure DT maize adoption rates and their determinants. The data reveal considerable inter-country variation in farmer uptake of DT maize, from 9 % of maize plots in Zimbabwe to 61 % in Malawi. The major barriers to adoption include unavailability of improved seed, inadequate information, lack of resources, high seed price, and perceived attributes of different varieties. Based on the results, we recommend that seed companies and agro-dealers ensure adequate supply of DT maize seed in local markets and sell seed in affordable micro-packs (1 or 2 kg). Furthermore, the DTMA project and partners should ramp up promotional efforts to ensure widespread awareness and understanding of the benefits of the new DT maize varieties.

Abstract Since its domestication around 10,000 years ago, wheat has played a crucial role in global food security. Wheat now supplies a fifth of food calories and protein to the world’s population. It is the most widely cultivated crop in the world, cultivated on 217 million ha annually. This chapter assesses available data on wheat production, consumption, and international trade to examine the global supply and demand conditions for wheat over the past quarter century and future implications. There is continued urgency to enhance wheat productivity to ensure global food security given continued global population growth and growing popularity of wheat based processed foods in the Global South. To enhance productivity while staying within planetary boundaries, there is a need for substantive investments in research and development, particularly in support of wheat’s role in agri-food systems in the Global South.

Abstract This study assesses changes over the past decade in the farm size distributions of Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zambia, drawing on two or more waves of nationally representative population‐based and/or area‐based surveys. Analysis indicates that much of Sub‐Saharan Africa is experiencing major changes in farm land ownership patterns. Among all farms below 100 hectares in size, the share of land on small‐scale holdings under five hectares has declined except in Kenya. Medium‐scale farms (defined here as farm holdings between 5 and 100 hectares) account for a rising share of total farmland, especially in the 10–100 hectare range where the number of these farms is growing especially rapidly. Medium‐scale farms control roughly 20% of total farmland in Kenya, 32% in Ghana, 39% in Tanzania, and over 50% in Zambia. The numbers of such farms are also growing very rapidly, except in Kenya. We also conducted detailed life history surveys of medium‐scale farmers in each of these four countries and found that the rapid rise of medium‐scale holdings in most cases reflects increased interest in land by urban‐based professionals or influential rural people. About half of these farmers obtained their land later in life, financed by nonfarm income. The rise of medium‐scale farms is affecting the region in diverse ways that are difficult to generalize. Many such farms are a source of dynamism, technical change, and commercialization of African agriculture. However, medium‐scale land acquisitions may exacerbate land scarcity in rural areas and constrain the rate of growth in the number of small‐scale farm holdings. Medium‐scale farmers tend to dominate farm lobby groups and influence agricultural policies and public expenditures to agriculture in their favor. Nationally representative Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from six countries (Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia) show that urban households own 5–35% of total agricultural land and that this share is rising in all countries where DHS surveys were repeated. This suggests a new and hitherto unrecognized channel by which medium‐scale farmers may be altering the strength and location of agricultural growth and employment multipliers between rural and urban areas. Given current trends, medium‐scale farms are likely to soon become the dominant scale of farming in many African countries.

Why do many smallholder farmers fail to adopt what appear to be relatively simple agronomic or management practices which can help them cope with climate-induced stressors? Using household and plot level data collected in 2011, we implement a multivariate probit model to assess the determinants of farmer adaptation behavior to climatic risks and the relative contribution of information, credit and education on the probability of adopting specific practices in response to adverse changes in weather patterns. We find that plot characteristics, credit constraints and availability of climate-related information explain the adoption of several of these practices. In relative terms, we also find that even when financial limitations are binding, making climate-related information available can still motivate farmers to adapt. Policy implications are that the deepening of extension access with information on the appropriate adaptation strategies is crucial to help farmers make adaptation choices. The need to foster credit markets for easy accessibility and affordability by farmers or otherwise strengthening access to assets is also important.

We investigated whether the recent worldwide epidemics of wheat yellow rust were driven by races of few clonal lineage(s) or populations of divergent races. Race phenotyping of 887 genetically diverse Puccinia striiformis isolates sampled in 35 countries during 2009-2015, revealed that these epidemics were often driven by races from few but highly divergent genetic lineages. PstS1 was predominant in North America; PstS2 in West Asia and North Africa; and both PstS1 and PstS2 in East Africa. PstS4 was prevalent in Northern Europe on triticale; PstS5 and PstS9 were prevalent in Central Asia; whereas PstS6 was prevalent in epidemics in East Africa. PstS7, PstS8 and PstS10 represented three genetic lineages prevalent in Europe. Races from other lineages were in low frequencies. Virulence to Yr9 and Yr27 was common in epidemics in Africa and Asia, while virulence to Yr17 and Yr32 were prevalent in Europe, corresponding to widely deployed resistance genes. The highest diversity was observed in South Asian populations, where frequent recombination has been reported, and no particular race was predominant in this area. The results are discussed in light of the role of invasions in shaping pathogen population across geographical regions. The results emphasized the lack of predictability of emergence of new races with high epidemic potential, which stresses the need for additional investments in population biology and surveillance activities of pathogens on global food crops, and assessments of disease vulnerability of host varieties prior to their deployment at larger scales.

Nutrient limitation is a major constraint in crop production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Here, we propose a generic and simple equilibrium model to estimate minimum input requirements of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium for target yields in cereal crops under highly efficient management. The model was combined with Global Yield Gap Atlas data to explore minimum input requirements for self-sufficiency in 2050 for maize in nine countries in SSA. We estimate that yields have to increase from the current ca. 20% of water-limited yield potential to approximately 50–75% of the potential depending on the scenario investigated. Minimum nutrient input requirements must rise disproportionately more, with N input increasing 9-fold or 15-fold, because current production largely relies on soil nutrient mining, which cannot be sustained into the future.

In the case of cultivated modern wheats, the variation in zinc and iron concentrations in seeds is relatively small. Moreover, environmental and management factors exert a greater effect on variation of micronutrient concentrations of modern cultivated wheats than genetic factors. Wild wheats might serve as an important source of new genetic material for increasing micronutrient concentrations in seeds. To investigate this, we studied the variation in zinc and iron concentrations in seeds of wild and primitive diploid wheats and wild tetraploid wheats. The variation was particularly large in the case of zinc. The highest concentrations of zinc were found in the seeds of ssp. boeoticum (178 mg/kg) and ssp. dicoccoides (159 mg/kg). The results demonstrate that the genetic variation in the concentrations of zinc and iron in cultivated modern tetraploid and hexaploid wheats is extremely low when compared with the variation found in wild diploid and tetraploid wheats. This suggests that wild wheats, particularly chromosomes 6A and 6B in the wild tetraploid wheats, can be considered a major source of genetic diversity for increasing zinc and iron density in the seeds of modern wheats. In view of the fact that the concentrations of protein in seeds are strongly and positively correlated with the concentrations of iron and particularly of zinc, selection and/or breeding for high zinc and iron levels in seeds may result in simultaneously high levels of protein.

Abstract Micronutrient deficiencies (MNDs) remain widespread among people in sub-Saharan Africa 1–5 , where access to sufficient food from plant and animal sources that is rich in micronutrients (vitamins and minerals) is limited due to socioeconomic and geographical reasons 4–6 . Here we report the micronutrient composition (calcium, iron, selenium and zinc) of staple cereal grains for most of the cereal production areas in Ethiopia and Malawi. We show that there is geospatial variation in the composition of micronutrients that is nutritionally important at subnational scales. Soil and environmental covariates of grain micronutrient concentrations included soil pH, soil organic matter, temperature, rainfall and topography, which were specific to micronutrient and crop type. For rural households consuming locally sourced food—including many smallholder farming communities—the location of residence can be the largest influencing factor in determining the dietary intake of micronutrients from cereals. Positive relationships between the concentration of selenium in grain and biomarkers of selenium dietary status occur in both countries. Surveillance of MNDs on the basis of biomarkers of status and dietary intakes from national- and regional-scale food-composition data 1–7 could be improved using subnational data on the composition of grain micronutrients. Beyond dietary diversification, interventions to alleviate MNDs, such as food fortification 8,9 and biofortification to increase the micronutrient concentrations in crops 10,11 , should account for geographical effects that can be larger in magnitude than intervention outcomes.

ABSTRACT Maize cultivars with improved grain yields under nitrogen (N) stress are desirable for sub‐Saharan African maize growing environments. This study assesses N uptake, N utilization, and the genotype × environment (G × E) interaction of 16 tropical maize ( Zea mays L.) hybrids differing in grain yield under low‐N conditions. Hybrids were evaluated under low‐N, medium‐N, and high‐N at Harare, Zimbabwe, in 2003 and 2004 and at Kiboko, Kenya, in 2003. At maturity, N accumulation in the aboveground biomass ranged from 47 to 278 kg N ha −1 in various experiments. Grain yields ranged from 1.5 to 4.3 Mg ha −1 and 10.6 to 14.9 Mg ha −1 for the same experiments, respectively. Significant G × E interactions were observed which became more pronounced as the difference in N stress intensity between two environments increased. High grain yield under low‐N was consistently associated with higher postanthesis N uptake, increased grain production per unit N accumulated, and an improved N harvest index. Additive main effect and multiplicative interaction analysis identified hybrids with specific adaptation to either low‐N or high‐N environments. Several hybrids produced high yields under both low‐N and high‐N conditions. More detailed studies with these hybrids are required to examine the underlying physiological mechanisms contributing to the N‐use efficiency.

Abstract This paper examines factors influencing the adoption of improved maize seeds and the use of inorganic fertilizer for maize production by farmers in the intermediate and lowland zones of Tanzania. The results indicate that availability of extension services, on-farm field trials, variety characteristics and rainfall were the most important factors that influenced the extent of adopting improved maize seeds and the use of inorganic fertilizer for maize production. Farmers preferred those varieties which minimize field loss rather than maximizing yields. Future research and extension policies should emphasize farmer participation in the research process and on-farm field trials for varietal evaluation and demonstration purposes.

Agroforestry has attracted considerable attention in recent years because of its potential to reduce poverty, improve food security, reduce land degradation and mitigate climate change. However, progress in promoting agroforestry is held back because decision-makers lack reliable tools to accurately predict yields from tree-crop mixtures. Amongst the key challenges faced in developing such tools are the complexity of agroforestry, including interactions between various system components, and the large spatial domains and timescales over which trees and crops interact. A model that is flexible enough to simulate any agroforestry system globally should be able to address competition and complementarity above and below ground between trees and crops for light, water and nutrients. Most agroforestry practices produce multiple products including food, fiber and fuel, as well as income, shade and other ecosystem services, all of which need to be simulated for a comprehensive understanding of the overall system to emerge. Several agroforestry models and model families have been developed, including SCUAF, HyPAR, Hi-SAFE/Yield-SAFE and WaNuLCAS, but as of 2015 their use has remained limited for reasons including insufficient flexibility, restricted ability to simulate interactions, extensive parameterization needs or lack of model maintenance. An efficient approach to improving the flexibility and durability of agroforestry models is to integrate them into a wellestablished modular crop modeling framework like APSIM. This framework currently focuses on field-scale crops and pastures, but has the capability to reuse or interoperate with existing models including tree, livestock and landscape models, it uses parameters that are intuitive and relatively easy to measure, and it allows scenario analysis that can include farm-scale economics. Various types of agroforestry systems are currently being promoted in many contexts, and the impacts of these innovations are often unclear. Rapid progress in reliable modeling of tree and crop performance for such systems is needed to ensure that agroforestry fulfills its potential to contribute to reducing poverty, improving food security and fostering sustainability.

Abstract This article provides a critical analysis of the current frontier of research evaluating Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP), whose main objectives are increasing maize production, promoting household food security, and enhancing rural incomes. We focus on farm‐level studies in Malawi, identifying consistent and contrasting research results in order to draw important policy lessons and provide suggested avenues for future research. While national production estimates suggested dramatic increases in maize production and productivity during the years of the FISP, the farm‐level studies found relatively modest increases in maize production and yields over the same period. Consistent with the farm‐level results of modest maize production increases, there has been a relative increase in real maize prices and the country continued to import maize during most of the subsidy program years. Furthermore, there is evidence that better‐off households gained substantially more than poorer households when they participated in the program. Together these findings cast some doubt on the FISP's ability to reduce food insecurity and poverty. We propose a number of policy lessons and suggestions for rigorous investigation, including research that directly measures the causal impacts of the FISP program on poverty in Malawi.