Jos University Teaching Hospital

Abstract Previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of stroke — the second leading cause of death worldwide — were conducted predominantly in populations of European ancestry 1,2 . Here, in cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses of 110,182 patients who have had a stroke (five ancestries, 33% non-European) and 1,503,898 control individuals, we identify association signals for stroke and its subtypes at 89 (61 new) independent loci: 60 in primary inverse-variance-weighted analyses and 29 in secondary meta-regression and multitrait analyses. On the basis of internal cross-ancestry validation and an independent follow-up in 89,084 additional cases of stroke (30% non-European) and 1,013,843 control individuals, 87% of the primary stroke risk loci and 60% of the secondary stroke risk loci were replicated ( P < 0.05). Effect sizes were highly correlated across ancestries. Cross-ancestry fine-mapping, in silico mutagenesis analysis 3 , and transcriptome-wide and proteome-wide association analyses revealed putative causal genes (such as SH3PXD2A and FURIN ) and variants (such as at GRK5 and NOS3 ). Using a three-pronged approach 4 , we provide genetic evidence for putative drug effects, highlighting F11, KLKB1, PROC, GP1BA, LAMC2 and VCAM1 as possible targets, with drugs already under investigation for stroke for F11 and PROC. A polygenic score integrating cross-ancestry and ancestry-specific stroke GWASs with vascular-risk factor GWASs (integrative polygenic scores) strongly predicted ischaemic stroke in populations of European, East Asian and African ancestry 5 . Stroke genetic risk scores were predictive of ischaemic stroke independent of clinical risk factors in 52,600 clinical-trial participants with cardiometabolic disease. Our results provide insights to inform biology, reveal potential drug targets and derive genetic risk prediction tools across ancestries.

AIMS: Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) accounts for over a million premature deaths annually; however, there is little contemporary information on presentation, complications, and treatment. METHODS AND RESULTS: This prospective registry enrolled 3343 patients (median age 28 years, 66.2% female) presenting with RHD at 25 hospitals in 12 African countries, India, and Yemen between January 2010 and November 2012. The majority (63.9%) had moderate-to-severe multivalvular disease complicated by congestive heart failure (33.4%), pulmonary hypertension (28.8%), atrial fibrillation (AF) (21.8%), stroke (7.1%), infective endocarditis (4%), and major bleeding (2.7%). One-quarter of adults and 5.3% of children had decreased left ventricular (LV) systolic function; 23% of adults and 14.1% of children had dilated LVs. Fifty-five percent (n = 1761) of patients were on secondary antibiotic prophylaxis. Oral anti-coagulants were prescribed in 69.5% (n = 946) of patients with mechanical valves (n = 501), AF (n = 397), and high-risk mitral stenosis in sinus rhythm (n = 48). However, only 28.3% (n = 269) had a therapeutic international normalized ratio. Among 1825 women of childbearing age (12-51 years), only 3.6% (n = 65) were on contraception. The utilization of valvuloplasty and valve surgery was higher in upper-middle compared with lower-income countries. CONCLUSION: Rheumatic heart disease patients were young, predominantly female, and had high prevalence of major cardiovascular complications. There is suboptimal utilization of secondary antibiotic prophylaxis, oral anti-coagulation, and contraception, and variations in the use of percutaneous and surgical interventions by country income level.

Importance: Early diagnosis of retinoblastoma, the most common intraocular cancer, can save both a child's life and vision. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that many children across the world are diagnosed late. To our knowledge, the clinical presentation of retinoblastoma has never been assessed on a global scale. Objectives: To report the retinoblastoma stage at diagnosis in patients across the world during a single year, to investigate associations between clinical variables and national income level, and to investigate risk factors for advanced disease at diagnosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 278 retinoblastoma treatment centers were recruited from June 2017 through December 2018 to participate in a cross-sectional analysis of treatment-naive patients with retinoblastoma who were diagnosed in 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age at presentation, proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma, and tumor stage and metastasis. Results: The cohort included 4351 new patients from 153 countries; the median age at diagnosis was 30.5 (interquartile range, 18.3-45.9) months, and 1976 patients (45.4%) were female. Most patients (n = 3685 [84.7%]) were from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Globally, the most common indication for referral was leukocoria (n = 2638 [62.8%]), followed by strabismus (n = 429 [10.2%]) and proptosis (n = 309 [7.4%]). Patients from high-income countries (HICs) were diagnosed at a median age of 14.1 months, with 656 of 666 (98.5%) patients having intraocular retinoblastoma and 2 (0.3%) having metastasis. Patients from low-income countries were diagnosed at a median age of 30.5 months, with 256 of 521 (49.1%) having extraocular retinoblastoma and 94 of 498 (18.9%) having metastasis. Lower national income level was associated with older presentation age, higher proportion of locally advanced disease and distant metastasis, and smaller proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma. Advanced disease at diagnosis was more common in LMICs even after adjusting for age (odds ratio for low-income countries vs upper-middle-income countries and HICs, 17.92 [95% CI, 12.94-24.80], and for lower-middle-income countries vs upper-middle-income countries and HICs, 5.74 [95% CI, 4.30-7.68]). Conclusions and Relevance: This study is estimated to have included more than half of all new retinoblastoma cases worldwide in 2017. Children from LMICs, where the main global retinoblastoma burden lies, presented at an older age with more advanced disease and demonstrated a smaller proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma, likely because many do not reach a childbearing age. Given that retinoblastoma is curable, these data are concerning and mandate intervention at national and international levels. Further studies are needed to investigate factors, other than age at presentation, that may be associated with advanced disease in LMICs.

INTRODUCTION: There has been no nationwide health (diabetes) survey in Nigeria since 1992, when a diabetes mellitus (DM) prevalence of 2.2% was reported. We aimed to determine the prevalence of and risk factors for DM in Nigeria by performing a systematic review and meta-analysis. METHODS: We searched Medline, EMBASE, PubMed, PapersFirst, the Cochrane Library, Scopus, Bioline, African Journals Online, Institute of Scientific Information, and Google Scholar from the year 1990 to 2017. Using MeSH headings, the terms "diabetes mellitus," "risk factors," "prevalence," and "Nigeria" as well as variations thereof were searched for. The last search was performed on 26 November 2017. We only included studies that utilized the random plasma glucose test, the fasting plasma glucose test, the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), or HbA1c to diagnose DM. A total of 23 studies (n = 14,650 persons) were evaluated. A random effects model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence of DM. We estimated the overall pooled prevalence of DM and subgroup-specific DM prevalences while accounting for inter-study and intra-study variability/heterogeneity. RESULTS: The overall pooled prevalence of DM was 5.77% (95% CI 4.3-7.1). The pooled prevalences of DM in the six geopolitical zones of Nigeria were 3.0% (95% CI 1.7-4.3) in the north-west, 5.9% (95% CI 2.4-9.4) in the north-east, 3.8% (95% CI 2.9-4.7) in the north-central zone, 5.5% (95% CI 4.0-7.1) in the south-west, 4.6% (95% CI 3.4-5.9) in the south-east, and 9.8% (95% CI 7.2-12.4) in the south-south zone. Risk factors for the pooled prevalence of DM were a family history of DM (4.6%; 95% CI 3.5-5.6); urban dwelling (6.0%; 95% CI 4.3-7.8); unhealthy dietary habits (8.0%; 95% CI 5.4-10.5); cigarette smoking (4.4%; 95% CI 1.3-10.2); older age (6.6%; 95% CI 4.5-8.7); physical inactivity (4.8%; 95% CI 3.2-6.4); and obesity (5.3%; 95% CI 3.8-6.9). CONCLUSION: There has been an increase in the prevalence of DM in Nigeria. All regions of the country have been affected, with the highest prevalence seen in the south-south geopolitical zone. Urban dwelling, physical inactivity, advanced age, and unhealthy diet are important risk factors for DM among Nigerians. A national diabetes care and prevention policy is highly recommended.

BACKGROUND: For more than three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has provided a framework to quantify health loss due to diseases, injuries, and associated risk factors. This paper presents GBD 2023 findings on disease and injury burden and risk-attributable health loss, offering a global audit of the state of world health to inform public health priorities. This work captures the evolving landscape of health metrics across age groups, sexes, and locations, while reflecting on the remaining post-COVID-19 challenges to achieving our collective global health ambitions. METHODS: The GBD 2023 combined analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 375 diseases and injuries, and risk-attributable burden associated with 88 modifiable risk factors. Of the more than 310 000 total data sources used for all GBD 2023 (about 30% of which were new to this estimation round), more than 120 000 sources were used for estimation of disease and injury burden and 59 000 for risk factor estimation, and included vital registration systems, surveys, disease registries, and published scientific literature. Data were analysed using previously established modelling approaches, such as disease modelling meta-regression version 2.1 (DisMod-MR 2.1) and comparative risk assessment methods. Diseases and injuries were categorised into four levels on the basis of the established GBD cause hierarchy, as were risk factors using the GBD risk hierarchy. Estimates stratified by age, sex, location, and year from 1990 to 2023 were focused on disease-specific time trends over the 2010-23 period and presented as counts (to three significant figures) and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years (to one decimal place). For each measure, 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] were calculated with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile ordered values from a 250-draw distribution. FINDINGS: Total numbers of global DALYs grew 6·1% (95% UI 4·0-8·1), from 2·64 billion (2·46-2·86) in 2010 to 2·80 billion (2·57-3·08) in 2023, but age-standardised DALY rates, which account for population growth and ageing, decreased by 12·6% (11·0-14·1), revealing large long-term health improvements. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed 1·45 billion (1·31-1·61) global DALYs in 2010, increasing to 1·80 billion (1·63-2·03) in 2023, alongside a concurrent 4·1% (1·9-6·3) reduction in age-standardised rates. Based on DALY counts, the leading level 3 NCDs in 2023 were ischaemic heart disease (193 million [176-209] DALYs), stroke (157 million [141-172]), and diabetes (90·2 million [75·2-107]), with the largest increases in age-standardised rates since 2010 occurring for anxiety disorders (62·8% [34·0-107·5]), depressive disorders (26·3% [11·6-42·9]), and diabetes (14·9% [7·5-25·6]). Remarkable health gains were made for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, with DALYs falling from 874 million (837-917) in 2010 to 681 million (642-736) in 2023, and a 25·8% (22·6-28·7) reduction in age-standardised DALY rates. During the COVID-19 pandemic, DALYs due to CMNN diseases rose but returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. From 2010 to 2023, decreases in age-standardised rates for CMNN diseases were led by rate decreases of 49·1% (32·7-61·0) for diarrhoeal diseases, 42·9% (38·0-48·0) for HIV/AIDS, and 42·2% (23·6-56·6) for tuberculosis. Neonatal disorders and lower respiratory infections remained the leading level 3 CMNN causes globally in 2023, although both showed notable rate decreases from 2010, declining by 16·5% (10·6-22·0) and 24·8% (7·4-36·7), respectively. Injury-related age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 15·6% (10·7-19·8) over the same period. Differences in burden due to NCDs, CMNN diseases, and injuries persisted across age, sex, time, and location. Based on our risk analysis, nearly 50% (1·27 billion [1·18-1·38]) of the roughly 2·80 billion total global DALYs in 2023 were attributable to the 88 risk factors analysed in GBD. Globally, the five level 3 risk factors contributing the highest proportion of risk-attributable DALYs were high systolic blood pressure (SBP), particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), smoking, and low birthweight and short gestation-with high SBP accounting for 8·4% (6·9-10·0) of total DALYs. Of the three overarching level 1 GBD risk factor categories-behavioural, metabolic, and environmental and occupational-risk-attributable DALYs rose between 2010 and 2023 only for metabolic risks, increasing by 30·7% (24·8-37·3); however, age-standardised DALY rates attributable to metabolic risks decreased by 6·7% (2·0-11·0) over the same period. For all but three of the 25 leading level 3 risk factors, age-standardised rates dropped between 2010 and 2023-eg, declining by 54·4% (38·7-65·3) for unsafe sanitation, 50·5% (33·3-63·1) for unsafe water source, and 45·2% (25·6-72·0) for no access to handwashing facility, and by 44·9% (37·3-53·5) for child growth failure. The three leading level 3 risk factors for which age-standardised attributable DALY rates rose were high BMI (10·5% [0·1 to 20·9]), drug use (8·4% [2·6 to 15·3]), and high FPG (6·2% [-2·7 to 15·6]; non-significant). INTERPRETATION: Our findings underscore the complex and dynamic nature of global health challenges. Since 2010, there have been large decreases in burden due to CMNN diseases and many environmental and behavioural risk factors, juxtaposed with sizeable increases in DALYs attributable to metabolic risk factors and NCDs in growing and ageing populations. This long-observed consequence of the global epidemiological transition was only temporarily interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The substantially decreasing CMNN disease burden, despite the 2008 global financial crisis and pandemic-related disruptions, is one of the greatest collective public health successes known. However, these achievements are at risk of being reversed due to major cuts to development assistance for health globally, the effects of which will hit low-income countries with high burden the hardest. Without sustained investment in evidence-based interventions and policies, progress could stall or reverse, leading to widespread human costs and geopolitical instability. Moreover, the rising NCD burden necessitates intensified efforts to mitigate exposure to leading risk factors-eg, air pollution, smoking, and metabolic risks, such as high SBP, BMI, and FPG-including policies that promote food security, healthier diets, physical activity, and equitable and expanded access to potential treatments, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists. Decisive, coordinated action is needed to address long-standing yet growing health challenges, including depressive and anxiety disorders. Yet this can be only part of the solution. Our response to the NCD syndemic-the complex interaction of multiple health risks, social determinants, and systemic challenges-will define the future landscape of global health. To ensure human wellbeing, economic stability, and social equity, global action to sustain and advance health gains must prioritise reducing disparities by addressing socioeconomic and demographic determinants, ensuring equitable health-care access, tackling malnutrition, strengthening health systems, and improving vaccination coverage. We live in times of great opportunity. FUNDING: Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional rickets remains prevalent in many tropical countries despite the fact that such countries have ample sunlight. Some postulate that a deficiency of dietary calcium, rather than vitamin D, is often responsible for rickets after infancy. METHODS: We enrolled 123 Nigerian children (median age, 46 months) with rickets in a randomized, double-blind, controlled trial of 24 weeks of treatment with vitamin D (600,000 U intramuscularly at enrollment and at 12 weeks), calcium (1000 mg daily), or a combination of vitamin D and calcium. We compared the calcium intake of the children at enrollment with that of control children without rickets who were matched for sex, age, and weight. We measured serum calcium and alkaline phosphatase and used a 10-point radiographic score to assess the response to treatment at 24 weeks. RESULTS: The daily dietary calcium intake was low in the children with rickets and the control children (median, 203 mg and 196 mg, respectively; P=0.64). Treatment produced a smaller increase in the mean (+/-SD) serum calcium concentration in the vitamin D group (from 7.8+/-0.8 mg per deciliter [2.0+/-0.2 mmol per liter] at base line to 8.3+/-0.7 mg per deciliter [2.1+/-0.2 mmol per liter] at 24 weeks) than in the calcium group (from 7.5+/-0.8 [1.9+/-0.2 mmol per liter] to 9.0+/-0.6 mg per deciliter [2.2+/-0.2 mmol per liter], P<0.001) or the combination-therapy group (from 7.7+/-1.0 [1.9+/-0.25 mmol per liter] to 9.1+/-0.6 mg per deciliter [2.3+/-0.2 mmol per liter], P<0.001). A greater proportion of children in the calcium and combination-therapy groups than in the vitamin D group reached the combined end point of a serum alkaline phosphatase concentration of 350 U per liter or less and radiographic evidence of nearly complete healing of rickets (61 percent, 58 percent, and 19 percent, respectively; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Nigerian children with rickets have a low intake of calcium and have a better response to treatment with calcium alone or in combination with vitamin D than to treatment with vitamin D alone.

The way a country finances its health care system is a critical determinant for reaching universal health coverage (UHC). This is so because it determines whether the health services that are available are affordable to those that need them. In Nigeria, the health sector is financed through different sources and mechanisms. The difference in the proportionate contribution from these stated sources determine the extent to which such health sector will go in achieving successful health care financing system. Unfortunately, in Nigeria, achieving the correct blend of these sources remains a challenge. This review draws on relevant literature to provide an overview and the state of health care financing in Nigeria, including policies in place to enhance healthcare financing. We searched PubMed, Medline, The Cochrane Library, Popline, Science Direct and WHO Library Database with search terms that included, but were not restricted to health care financing Nigeria, public health financing, financing health and financing policies. Further publications were identified from references cited in relevant articles and reports. We reviewed only papers published in English. No date restrictions were placed on searches. It notes that health care in Nigeria is financed through different sources including but not limited to tax revenue, out-of-pocket payments (OOPs), donor funding, and health insurance (social and community). In the face of achieving UHC, achieving successful health care financing system continues to be a challenge in Nigeria and concludes that to achieve universal coverage using health financing as the strategy, there is a dire need to review the system of financing health and ensure that resources are used more efficiently while at the same time removing financial barriers to access by shifting focus from OOPs to other hidden resources. There is also need to give presidential assent to the national health bill and its prompt implementation when signed into law.

INTRODUCTION: Nutritional rickets has been described from at least 59 countries in the last 20 years. Its spectrum of causes differs in different regions of the world. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of articles on nutritional rickets from various geographical regions published in the last 20 years. We extracted information about the prevalence and causes of rickets. RESULTS: Calcium deficiency is the major cause of rickets in Africa and some parts of tropical Asia, but is being recognised increasingly in other parts of the world. A resurgence of vitamin D deficiency has been observed in North America and Europe. Vitamin D-deficiency rickets usually presents in the 1st 18 months of life, whereas calcium deficiency typically presents after weaning and often after the 2nd year. Few studies of rickets in developing countries report values of 25(OH)D to permit distinguishing vitamin D from calcium deficiency. CONCLUSIONS: Rickets exists along a spectrum ranging from isolated vitamin D deficiency to isolated calcium deficiency. Along the spectrum, it is likely that relative deficiencies of calcium and vitamin D interact with genetic and/or environmental factors to stimulate the development of rickets. Vitamin D supplementation alone might not prevent or treat rickets in populations with limited calcium intake.

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Radiographic changes of rickets are well characterized, but no method of grading the severity of these changes has been in general use. Consequently, it is difficult to compare objectively or follow radiographic improvement. We prospectively evaluated the utility and reproducibility of a scoring method for measuring the severity of rickets. A 10-point score for radiographs of wrists and knees was devised to assess the degree of metaphyseal fraying and cupping and the proportion of the growth plate affected. The score progresses in half point increments from zero (normal) to 10 points (severe). Four trained physicians independently scored radiographs on two separate occasions from 67 children with active rickets. A broad representation of mean radiographic scores was moderately correlated with alkaline phosphatase (r = 0.58). Interobserver correlation of radiographic scores was 0.84 or greater for all observer pairs and intraobserver correlation was 0.89 or greater for each observer. Researchers and clinicians should find the score useful to assess objectively the severity of rickets.

BACKGROUND: The rollout of antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa has brought lifesaving treatment to millions of HIV-infected individuals. Treatment is lifelong, however, and to continue to benefit, patients must remain in care. Despite this, systematic investigations of retention have repeatedly documented high rates of loss to follow-up from HIV treatment programs. This paper introduces an explanation for missed clinic visits and subsequent disengagement among patients enrolled in HIV treatment and care programs in Africa. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Eight-hundred-ninety patients enrolled in HIV treatment programs in Jos, Nigeria; Dar es Salaam, Tanzania; and Mbarara, Uganda who had extended absences from care were tracked for qualitative research interviews. Two-hundred-eighty-seven were located, and 91 took part in the study. Interview data were inductively analyzed to identify reasons for missed visits and to assemble them into a broader explanation of how missed visits may develop into disengagement. Findings reveal unintentional and intentional reasons for missing, along with reluctance to return to care following an absence. Disengagement is interpreted as a process through which missed visits and ensuing reluctance to return over time erode patients' subjective sense of connectedness to care. CONCLUSIONS: Missed visits are inevitable over a lifelong course of HIV care. Efforts to prevent missed clinic visits combined with moves to minimize barriers to re-entry into care are more likely than either approach alone to keep missed visits from turning into long-term disengagement.

BACKGROUND: Timely and comprehensive analyses of causes of death stratified by age, sex, and location are essential for shaping effective health policies aimed at reducing global mortality. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 provides cause-specific mortality estimates measured in counts, rates, and years of life lost (YLLs). GBD 2023 aimed to enhance our understanding of the relationship between age and cause of death by quantifying the probability of dying before age 70 years (70q0) and the mean age at death by cause and sex. This study enables comparisons of the impact of causes of death over time, offering a deeper understanding of how these causes affect global populations. METHODS: GBD 2023 produced estimates for 292 causes of death disaggregated by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2023. We used a modelling tool developed for GBD, the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to estimate cause-specific death rates for most causes. We computed YLLs as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. Probability of death was calculated as the chance of dying from a given cause in a specific age period, for a specific population. Mean age at death was calculated by first assigning the midpoint age of each age group for every death, followed by computing the mean of all midpoint ages across all deaths attributed to a given cause. We used GBD death estimates to calculate the observed mean age at death and to model the expected mean age across causes, sexes, years, and locations. The expected mean age reflects the expected mean age at death for individuals within a population, based on global mortality rates and the population's age structure. Comparatively, the observed mean age represents the actual mean age at death, influenced by all factors unique to a location-specific population, including its age structure. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 250-draw distribution for each metric. Findings are reported as counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2023 include a correction for the misclassification of deaths due to COVID-19, updates to the method used to estimate COVID-19, and updates to the CODEm modelling framework. This analysis used 55 761 data sources, including vital registration and verbal autopsy data as well as data from surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. For GBD 2023, there were 312 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 3 country-years of surveillance data, 51 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 144 country-years of other data types that were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS: The initial years of the COVID-19 pandemic caused shifts in long-standing rankings of the leading causes of global deaths: it ranked as the number one age-standardised cause of death at Level 3 of the GBD cause classification hierarchy in 2021. By 2023, COVID-19 dropped to the 20th place among the leading global causes, returning the rankings of the leading two causes to those typical across the time series (ie, ischaemic heart disease and stroke). While ischaemic heart disease and stroke persist as leading causes of death, there has been progress in reducing their age-standardised mortality rates globally. Four other leading causes have also shown large declines in global age-standardised mortality rates across the study period: diarrhoeal diseases, tuberculosis, stomach cancer, and measles. Other causes of death showed disparate patterns between sexes, notably for deaths from conflict and terrorism in some locations. A large reduction in age-standardised rates of YLLs occurred for neonatal disorders. Despite this, neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of global YLLs over the period studied, except in 2021, when COVID-19 was temporarily the leading cause. Compared to 1990, there has been a considerable reduction in total YLLs in many vaccine-preventable diseases, most notably diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and measles. In addition, this study quantified the mean age at death for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality and found noticeable variation by sex and location. The global all-cause mean age at death increased from 46·8 years (95% UI 46·6-47·0) in 1990 to 63·4 years (63·1-63·7) in 2023. For males, mean age increased from 45·4 years (45·1-45·7) to 61·2 years (60·7-61·6), and for females it increased from 48·5 years (48·1-48·8) to 65·9 years (65·5-66·3), from 1990 to 2023. The highest all-cause mean age at death in 2023 was found in the high-income super-region, where the mean age for females reached 80·9 years (80·9-81·0) and for males 74·8 years (74·8-74·9). By comparison, the lowest all-cause mean age at death occurred in sub-Saharan Africa, where it was 38·0 years (37·5-38·4) for females and 35·6 years (35·2-35·9) for males in 2023. Lastly, our study found that all-cause 70q0 decreased across each GBD super-region and region from 2000 to 2023, although with large variability between them. For females, we found that 70q0 notably increased from drug use disorders and conflict and terrorism. Leading causes that increased 70q0 for males also included drug use disorders, as well as diabetes. In sub-Saharan Africa, there was an increase in 70q0 for many non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Additionally, the mean age at death from NCDs was lower than the expected mean age at death for this super-region. By comparison, there was an increase in 70q0 for drug use disorders in the high-income super-region, which also had an observed mean age at death lower than the expected value. INTERPRETATION: We examined global mortality patterns over the past three decades, highlighting-with enhanced estimation methods-the impacts of major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to broader trends such as increasing NCDs in low-income regions that reflect ongoing shifts in the global epidemiological transition. This study also delves into premature mortality patterns, exploring the interplay between age and causes of death and deepening our understanding of where targeted resources could be applied to further reduce preventable sources of mortality. We provide essential insights into global and regional health disparities, identifying locations in need of targeted interventions to address both communicable and non-communicable diseases. There is an ever-present need for strengthened health-care systems that are resilient to future pandemics and the shifting burden of disease, particularly among ageing populations in regions with high mortality rates. Robust estimates of causes of death are increasingly essential to inform health priorities and guide efforts toward achieving global health equity. The need for global collaboration to reduce preventable mortality is more important than ever, as shifting burdens of disease are affecting all nations, albeit at different paces and scales. FUNDING: Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: In Plasmodium falciparum-infected children, the relationships between blood cell histopathology, blood plasma components, development of immunocompetence and disease severity remain poorly understood. Blood from Nigerian children with uncomplicated malaria was analysed to gain insight into these relationships. This investigation presents evidence for circulating neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) and antinuclear IgG antibodies (ANA). The presence of NETs and ANA to double-stranded DNA along with the cytokine profiles found suggests autoimmune mechanisms that could produce pathogenesis in children, but immunoprotection in adults. METHODS: Peripheral blood smear slides and blood samples obtained from 21 Nigerian children under six years of age, presenting with uncomplicated malaria before and seven days after initiation of sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) treatment were analysed. The slides were stained with Giemsa and with DAPI. Levels of the pro-inflammatory cytokines IFN-gamma, IL-2, TNF, CRP, and IL-6, select anti-inflammatory cytokines TGF-beta and IL-10, and ANA were determined by immunoassay. RESULTS: The children exhibited circulating NETs with adherent parasites and erythrocytes, elevated ANA levels, a Th2 dominated cytokine profile, and left-shifted leukocyte differential counts. Nonspecific ANA levels were significant in 86% of the children pretreatment and in 100% of the children seven days after SP treatment, but in only 33% of age-matched control samples collected during the season of low parasite transmission. Levels of ANA specific for dsDNA were significant in 81% of the children both pre-treatment and post treatment. CONCLUSION: The results of this investigation suggest that NET formation and ANA to dsDNA may induce pathology in falciparum-infected children, but activate a protective mechanism against falciparum malaria in adults. The significance of in vivo circulating chromatin in NETs and dsDNA ANA as a causative factor in the hyporesponsiveness of CpG oligonucleotide-based malaria vaccines is discussed.

Abstract Objectives: To determine whether family structure (polygamous or monogamous) is associated with sexual activity among school students in Nigeria. Design: Cross sectional school survey with a two stage, clustered sampling design. Participants: 4218 students aged 12–21 years attending 39 schools in Plateau state, Nigeria. Responses from 2705 students were included in the analysis. Main outcome measure: Report of ever having had sexual intercourse. Variables of interest included sexual history, age, sex, religion, family polygamy, educational level of parents, having a dead parent, and sense of connectedness to parents and school. Results: Overall 909 students (34%) reported ever having had sexual intercourse, and 1119 (41%) reported a polygamous family structure. Sexual activity was more common among students from polygamous families (42% of students) than monogamous families (28%) (χ 2 =64.23; P&lt;0.0001). Variables independently associated with sexual activity were male sex (adjusted odds ratio 2.52 (95% confidence interval 2.05 to 3.12)), older age (1.62 (1.24 to 2.14)), lower sense of connectedness with parents (1.87 (1.48 to 2.38)), having a dead parent (1.59 (1.27 to 2.00)), family polygamy (1.58 (1.29 to 1.92)), lower sense of connectedness with school (1.25 (1.09 to 1.44)), and lower educational level of parents (1.14 (1.05 to 1.24)). Multistep logistic regression analysis showed that the effect of polygamy on sexual activity was reduced by 27% by whether students were married and 22% by a history of forced sex. Conclusions: Secondary school students in Nigeria from a polygamous family structure are more likely to have engaged in sexual activity than students from a monogamous family structure. This effect is partly explained by a higher likelihood of marriage during adolescence and forced sex. Students' sense of connectedness to their parents and school, regardless of family structure, decreases the likelihood of sexual activity, and fostering this sense may help reduce risky sexual behaviour among Nigerian youth. What is already known on this topic In 2000 Nigeria developed a national health policy aimed at preventing behaviour among adolescents leading to sexually transmitted infections (including HIV), pregnancy, and dropout from school Effective interventions in Nigeria have been hampered by inadequate information on contextual factors associated with sexual behaviour of adolescents In Western countries adolescents' sense of connectedness to their parents and to school is inversely associated with risky sexual behaviour, but these effects may differ in countries where polygamy is prevalent and where school attendance is low What this paper adds A polygamous family structure is associated with early sexual activity among adolescents, an effect partly explained by a higher likelihood of marriage and history of forced sexual intercourse A greater sense of connectedness to parents and school decreases the likelihood of sexual activity, regardless of family structure

Information is very scarce on the prevalence of hepatitis-B virus (HBV) infection among blood donors and patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Nigeria. Hepatitis-B surface antigen (HBsAg) ELISA was used to determined the prevalence of HBsAg among 175 blood donors (aged 20-40 years) and 490 HIV-infected patients (aged 17-60 years) in Jos, Nigeria. Twenty-five (14.3%) of the blood donors and 127 (25.9%) of the HIV-infected individuals were HBsAg seropositive, indicating a higher HBV infection among HIV-infected persons than among healthy blood donors. A slightly higher HBsAg seroprevalence was recorded in the males (14.6%) than females (12.9%) of the blood donors. Among the HIV-infected patients, the males had considerably higher HBsAg seroprevalence than the females (31.8 vs 22.1%) with the highest prevalence of HBsAg occurring in the 51-60 years age group (44%), followed by those of 31-40 years (28.2%). Results confirmed the high endemicity of HBV infection in Jos, Nigeria and the significantly greater prevalence of HBV infection among HIV-infected patients than among blood donors.

BACKGROUND: Standard precautions are recommended to prevent transmission of infection in hospitals. However, their implementation is dependent on the knowledge and attitudes of healthcare workers (HCW). This study describes the knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) of standard precautions of infection control among HCW of two tertiary hospitals in Nigeria is described. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was undertaken in 2011/2012 among HCW in two tertiary hospitals in Nigeria. Data was collected via a structured self-administered questionnaire assessing core elements of KAP of standard precautions. Percentage KAP scores were calculated and professional differences in median percentage KAP scores were ascertained. RESULTS: A total of 290 HCW participated in the study (76% response rate), including 111 (38.3%) doctors, 147 (50.7%) nurses and 32 (11%) laboratory scientists. Overall median knowledge and attitude scores toward standard precautions were above 90%, but median practice score was 50.8%. The majority of the HCW had poor knowledge of injection safety and complained of inadequate resources to practise standard precautions. House officers, laboratory scientists and junior cadres of nurses had lower knowledge and compliance with standard precautions than more experienced doctors and nurses. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest generally poor compliance with standard precautions of infection control among HCW in Nigeria. Policies that foster training of HCW in standard precautions and guarantee regular provision of infection control and prevention resources in health facilities are required in Nigeria.

Although an association between Lassa fever (LF) and sudden-onset sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) was confirmed clinically in 1990, the prevalence of LF-induced SNHL in endemic countries is still underestimated. LF, a viral hemorrhagic fever disease caused by Lassa virus (LASV), is endemic in West Africa, causing an estimated 500,000 cases and 5,000 deaths per year. Sudden-onset SNHL, one complication of LF, occurs in approximately one-third of survivors and constitutes a neglected public health and social burden. In the endemic countries, where access to hearing aids is limited, SNHL results in a decline of the quality of life for those affected. In addition, hearing loss costs Nigeria approximately 43 million dollars per year. The epidemiology of LF-induced SNHL has not been characterized well. The complication of LF induced by SNHL is also an important consideration for vaccine development and treatments. However, research into the mechanism has been hindered by the lack of autopsy samples and relevant small animal models. Recently, the first animal model that mimics the symptoms of SNHL associated with LF was developed. Preliminary data from the new animal model as well as the clinical case studies support the mechanism of immune-mediated injury that causes SNHL in LF patients. This article summarizes clinical findings of hearing loss in LF patients highlighting the association between LASV infection and SNHL as well as the potential mechanism(s) for LF-induced SNHL. Further research is necessary to identify the mechanism and the epidemiology of LF-induced SNHL.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a major health problem, and there is an increasing trend of overweight and obese individuals in developing countries. Being overweight or obese is known to contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality rates in various countries around the world. We therefore aimed to identify and discuss current epidemiological data on the prevalence of obesity in Nigeria. METHOD: A systematic review of papers published on the prevalence of obesity among adults in the country was carried out. We covered work published in MEDLINE, PubMed, Google, and African Journals Online using the terms "prevalence of overweight and obesity in Nigeria" or "overweight and obesity in Nigeria." In addition, personal inquiries were made. The search limits were articles published from January 2001 to September 2012. Only studies that used the body mass index to assess for overweight and obesity were included. RESULTS: Four studies met the inclusion criteria out of the 75 studies reviewed. In Nigeria, the prevalence of overweight individuals ranged from 20.3%-35.1%, while the prevalence of obesity ranged from 8.1%-22.2%. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of overweight and obese individuals in Nigeria is of epidemic proportions. There is a need to pay closer attention to combating these health disorders.

BACKGROUND: Viral load (VL) quantification is considered essential for determining antiretroviral treatment (ART) success in resource-rich countries. However, it is not widely available in resource-limited settings where the burden of human immunodeficiency virus infection is greatest. In the absence of VL monitoring, switches to second-line ART are based on World Health Organization (WHO) clinical or immunologic failure criteria. METHODS: We assessed the performance of CD4 cell criteria to predict virologic outcomes in a large ART program in Nigeria. Laboratory monitoring consists of CD4 cell count and VL at baseline, then every 6 months. Failure was defined as 2 consecutive VLs >1000 copies/mL after at least 6 months of ART. Virologic outcomes were compared with the 3 WHO-defined immunologic failure criteria. RESULTS: A total of 9690 patients were included in the analysis (median follow-up, 33.2 months). A total of 1225 patients experienced failure by both immunologic and virologic criteria, 872 by virologic criteria only, and 1897 by immunologic criteria only. The sensitivity of CD4 cell criteria to detect viral failure was 58%, specificity was 75%, and the positive-predictive value was 39%. For patients with both virologic and immunologic failure, VL criteria identified failure significantly earlier than CD4 cell criteria (median, 10.4 vs 15.6 months; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Because of the low sensitivity of immunologic criteria, a substantial number of failures are missed, potentially resulting in accumulation of resistance mutations. In addition, specificity and predictive values are low, which may result in large numbers of unnecessary ART switches. Monitoring solely by immunologic criteria may result in increased costs because of excess switches to more expensive ART and development of drug-resistant virus.

This study was conducted to determine the prevalence and sociodemographic determinants of unwanted pregnancy and induced abortion in the Jos and Ife local government areas of Nigeria. A total of 1,516 randomly selected women aged 15–45 responded to a pretested structured questionnaire designed to elicit information concerning previous unwanted pregnancies and induced abortions in a value‐free manner. Nearly 20 percent of the women reported having had an unwanted pregnancy. Of these, 58 percent reported that they had successfully terminated the pregnancies; 32 percent continued the pregnancies; and nearly 9 percent stated that they had attempted termination but failed. Overall, the prevalence of self‐reports of induced abortion was 11 percent. The results reveal that information can be obtained on abortion in areas with restrictive abortion policies if an indirect interviewing approach is used.