Laboratoire d’Economie de Dauphine

Low-carbon electricity systems, electricity supply

International audience

In this paper we investigate the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth. We use an innovative econometric method which is based on a panel test of the Granger non causality hypothesis. We implement various tests with a sample of 63 industrial and developing countries over the
\n1960-1995 and 1960-2000 periods. We use three standard indicators of financial development. The results provide support for a robust causality relationship from economic growth to the financial development. On the contrary, the non causality
\nhypothesis from financial development indicators to economic growth can not be
\nrejected in most of the cases. However, these results only imply that, if such a
\nrelationship exists, it can not be easily identified in a simply bi-variate Granger
\ncausality test.

This report addresses the increasingly important interactions of variable renewables and dispatchable energy technologies, such as nuclear power, in terms of their effects on electricity systems. These effects add costs to the production of electricity, which are not usually transparent. The report recommends that decision-makers should take into account such system costs and internalise them according to a "generator pays" principle, which is currently not the case. Analysing data from six OECD/NEA countries, the study finds that including the system costs of variable renewables at the level of the electricity grid increases the total costs of electricity supply by up to one-third, depending on technology, country and penetration levels. In addition, it concludes that, unless the current market subsidies for renewables are altered, dispatchable technologies will increasingly not be replaced as they reach their end of life and consequently security of supply will suffer. This implies that significant changes in management and cost allocation will be needed to generate the flexibility required for an economically viable coexistence of nuclear energy and renewables in increasingly decarbonised electricity systems.

We derive several popular systemic risk measures in a common framework and show that they can be expressed as transformations of market risk measures (e.g. beta). We also derive conditions under which the different measures lead to similar rankings of systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs). In an empirical analysis of US financial institutions, we show that (1) different systemic risk measures identify different SIFIs and that (2) firm rankings based on systemic risk estimates mirror rankings obtained by sorting firms on market risk or liabilities. One-factor linear models explain most of the variability of the systemic risk estimates, which indicates that systemic risk measures fall short in capturing the multiple facets of systemic risk.

International audience

BACKGROUND: Significant differences in COVID-19 incidence by gender, class and race/ethnicity are recorded in many countries in the world. Lockdown measures, shown to be effective in reducing the number of new cases, may not have been effective in the same way for all, failing to protect the most vulnerable populations. This survey aims to assess social inequalities in the trends in COVID-19 infections following lockdown. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey conducted among the general population in France in April 2020, during COVID-19 lockdown. Ten thousand one hundred one participants aged 18-64, from a national cohort who lived in the three metropolitan French regions most affected by the first wave of COVID-19. The main outcome was occurrence of possible COVID-19 symptoms, defined as the occurrence of sudden onset of cough, fever, dyspnea, ageusia and/or anosmia, that lasted more than 3 days in the 15 days before the survey. We used multinomial regression models to identify social and health factors related to possible COVID-19 before and during the lockdown. RESULTS: In all, 1304 (13.0%; 95% CI: 12.0-14.0%) reported cases of possible COVID-19. The effect of lockdown on the occurrence of possible COVID-19 was different across social hierarchies. The most privileged class individuals saw a significant decline in possible COVID-19 infections between the period prior to lockdown and during the lockdown (from 8.8 to 4.3%, P = 0.0001) while the decline was less pronounced among working class individuals (6.9% before lockdown and 5.5% during lockdown, P = 0.03). This differential effect of lockdown remained significant after adjusting for other factors including history of chronic disease. The odds of being infected during lockdown as opposed to the prior period increased by 57% among working class individuals (OR = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.00-2.48). The same was true for those engaged in in-person professional activities during lockdown (OR = 1.53; 95% CI: 1.03-2.29). CONCLUSIONS: Lockdown was associated with social inequalities in the decline in COVID-19 infections, calling for the adoption of preventive policies to account for living and working conditions. Such adoptions are critical to reduce social inequalities related to COVID-19, as working-class individuals also have the highest COVID-19 related mortality, due to higher prevalence of comorbidities.

Résumé Victimes de la crise prolongée que traversent leurs pays, les jeunes des trois capitales africaines (Dakar, Yaoundé et Antananarivo) se trouvent contraints de reporter le calendrier des événements marquant leur entrée dans la vie adulte. Un recul de l’âge aussi bien d’accès au premier emploi rémunéré que d’autonomie résidentielle et de constitution de la famille est observé des générations aînées aux plus jeunes. Le sort de ces derniers est d’autant plus inéquitable que ni leur niveau d’éducation plus élevé, ni le fait de différer leur passage au statut d’adulte ne leur permet d’échapper à une dégradation de leurs conditions, relativement à celles connues par leurs parents, au moment de leur insertion. On assiste même à un ajustement par le bas dans la mesure où les plus éduqués chez les jeunes, au lieu d’être préservés, sont plus affectés par la détérioration du contexte économique.

International audience

Cet article explore les interactions entre la confiance institutionnelle et la corruption à partir d’un riche corpus d’enquêtes-ménages comparables : les enquêtes Afrobaromètre réalisées dans 18 pays d’Afrique sub-saharienne. Plus précisément, il teste les théories de l’ « huile dans les rouages » selon lesquelles la corruption peut renforcer la confiance des citoyens en leur permettant d’accéder à des services publics autrement inaccessibles. Nos résultats infirment clairement ces théories. Nous montrons que la corruption réduit clairement la confiance et ce quelque soit la qualité des services gouvernementaux. Ils suggèrent toutefois que l’expérience et la perception de la corruption ont des effets distincts sur la confiance institutionnelle.

Objective: To assess whether lack of trust in the government and scientists reinforces social and racial inequalities in vaccination practices. Design: A follow-up of the EpiCov random population-based cohort survey. Setting: In July 2021, in France. Participants: Eighty-thousand nine hundred and seventy-one participants aged 18 years and more. Main Outcome Measures: Adjusted odds ratios of COVID-19 vaccination status (received at least one dose/ intends to get vaccinated/ does not know whether to get vaccinated/refuses vaccination) were assessed using multinomial regressions to test associations with social and trust factors and to study how these two factors interacted with each other. Results: In all, 72.2% were vaccinated at the time of the survey. The population of unvaccinated people was younger, less educated, had lower incomes, and more often belonged to racially minoritized groups, as compared to vaccinated people. Lack of trust in the government and scientists to curb the spread of the epidemic were the factors most associated with refusing to be vaccinated: OR = 8.86 (7.13 to 11.00) for the government and OR = 9.07 (7.71 to 10.07) for scientists, compared to vaccinated people. Lack of trust was more prevalent among the poorest which consequently reinforced social inequalities in vaccination. The poorest 10% who did not trust the government reached an OR of 16.2 (11.9 to 22.0) for refusing to be vaccinated compared to the richest 10% who did. Conclusion: There is a need to develop depoliticised outreach programmes targeted at the most socially disadvantaged groups, and to design vaccination strategies conceived with people from different social and racial backgrounds to enable them to make fully informed choices.

International audience

INTRODUCTION: In the KEYNOTE-024 trial, pembrolizumab demonstrated significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) versus Standard-of-Care (SoC) platinum-based doublets for first-line treatment of PD-L1 -positive (≥50%) metastatic Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients with no EGFR mutations or ALK translocations. This study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab versus SoC platinum-based chemotherapy from the French healthcare system perspective. METHODS: A three-state partitioned-survival model was adapted to project outcomes and costs of squamous and non-squamous NSCLC patients respectively, over a 10-year time horizon. Clinical and utility data were collected from the trial. A network meta-analysis was performed to consider platinum-based triplets also used for non-squamous NSCLC. Direct medical costs were considered based on ressources identified from the trial and literature. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 4% per year. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated as cost per Life Year (LY) and cost per Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY). Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed to assess the robustness of results. RESULTS: For squamous NSCLC, pembrolizumab was projected to increase life expectancy of patients by 0.93 LY (11 months), and 0.74 QALY (9 months) for an incremental cost of €62,032 compared with platinum-based doublets. The ICER of pembrolizumab versus platinum-based doublets was €66,825/LY and €84,097/QALY. For non-squamous NSCLC, pembrolizumab was projected to increase life expectancy of patients by 0.85-1.32 LYs (10.2-15.8 months) and 0.64-1.02 QALYs (7.7-12.2 months) for an incremental cost varying from €-14,947-+47,064 depending on the specific comparator. The ICER of pembrolizumab versus platinum-based chemotherapy with paclitaxel plus bevacizumab was €62,846/LY and €78,729/QALY; regimens including pemetrexed were dominated. Results were most sensitive to extrapolations of survival outcomes and assumptions for continued effectiveness and treatment duration of pembrolizumab. CONCLUSIONS: Pembrolizumab appears cost-effective versus SoC chemotherapy for first-line treatment of PD-L1-positive (50%) metastatic NSCLC patients in France, assuming willingness-to-pay under 100,000€/QALY (OECD threshold in the discussion section).

This comprehensive and up-to-date book explains the economic rationale behind the production, delivery and exchange of electricity. Cretì and Fontini explain why electricity markets exist, outlining the economic principles behind the exchange and supply of power to consumers and firms. They identify the specificities of electricity, as compared to other goods, and furthermore suggest how markets should be optimally designed to produce and deliver electricity effectively and efficiently. The authors also address key issues, including how electricity can be decarbonized. Written in a technical yet accessible style, this book will appeal to readers studying power system economics and the economics of electricity, as well as those more generally interested in energy economics, including engineering and management students looking to gain an understanding of electricity market analysis

OBJECTIVE: Although social inequalities in COVID-19 mortality by race, gender and socioeconomic status are well documented, less is known about social disparities in infection rates and their shift over time. We aim to study the evolution of social disparities in infection at the early stage of the epidemic in France with regard to the policies implemented. DESIGN: Random population-based prospective cohort. SETTING: From May to June 2020 in France. PARTICIPANTS: Adults included in the Epidémiologie et Conditions de Vie cohort (n=77 588). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported anosmia and/or ageusia in three categories: no symptom, during the first epidemic peak (in March 2020) or thereafter (during lockdown). RESULTS: In all, 2052 participants (1.53%) reported anosmia/ageusia. The social distribution of exposure factors (density of place of residence, overcrowded housing and working outside the home) was described. Multinomial regressions were used to identify changes in social variables (gender, class and race) associated with symptoms of anosmia/ageusia. Women were more likely to report symptoms during the peak and after. Racialised minorities accumulated more exposure risk factors than the mainstream population and were at higher risk of anosmia/ageusia during the peak and after. By contrast, senior executive professionals were the least exposed to the virus with the lower rate of working outside the home during lockdown. They were more affected than lower social classes at the peak of the epidemic, but this effect disappeared after the peak. CONCLUSION: The shift in the social profile of the epidemic was related to a shift in exposure factors under the implementation of a stringent stay-at-home order. Our study shows the importance to consider in a dynamic way the gender, socioeconomic and race direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, notably to implement policies that do not widen health inequalities.

Ce manuel aborde, de façon claire et pédagogique, les grands thèmes de l'économie internationale, qu'il s'agisse de commerce ou de macroéconomie. Chaque chapitre expose les principales théories à partir d'exemples simples et de présentations graphiques, complétés par des exercices corrigés qui permettent de vérifier l'assimilation du cours. Cette 9e édition actualise toutes les données statistiques et rend compte des analyses contemporaines sur les chaînes de valeur mondiales, les transformations de la mondialisation et les effets de l'ouverture. Elle est également complétée par de nombreux encadrés sur les événements les plus récents : montée en puissance de la Chine, guerre commerciale, critiques de la mondialisation, place du dollar dans le système mondial, Brexit… Des études de cas à réaliser sur Excel s'appuyant sur la manipulation de données réelles par l'étudiant sont disponibles sur : www.dunod.com

What was the capacity of European colonial states? How fiscally extractive were they? What was their capacity to provide public goods and services? And did this change in the “developmentalist” era of colonialism? To answer these questions, we use archival sources to build a new dataset on colonial states of the second French colonial empire (1830–1962). French colonial states extracted a substantial amount of revenue, but they were under-administered because public expenditure entailed high wage costs. These costs remained a strong constraint in the “developmentalist” era of colonialism, despite a dramatic increase in fiscal capacity and large overseas subsidies.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy of financial incentives dependent on continuous smoking abstinence on smoking cessation and birth outcomes among pregnant smokers. DESIGN: Single blind, randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Financial Incentive for Smoking Cessation in Pregnancy (FISCP) trial in 18 maternity wards in France. PARTICIPANTS: 460 pregnant smokers aged at least 18 years who smoked ≤5 cigarettes/day or ≤3 roll-your-own cigarettes/day and had a pregnancy gestation of <18 weeks were randomised to a financial incentives group (n=231) or a control group (n=229). INTERVENTIONS: Participants in the financial incentives group received a voucher equivalent to €20 (£17; $23), and further progressively increasing vouchers at each study visit if they remained abstinent. Participants in the control group received no financial incentive for abstinence. All participants received a €20 show-up fee at each of six visits. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The main outcome measure was continuous smoking abstinence from the first post-quit date visit to visit 6, before delivery. Secondary outcomes in the mothers were point prevalence abstinence, time to smoking relapse, withdrawal symptoms, blood pressure, and alcohol and cannabis use in past 30 days. Secondary outcomes in the babies were gestational age at birth, birth characteristics (birth weight, length, head circumference, Apgar score), and a poor neonatal outcome-a composite measure of transfer to the neonatal unit, congenital malformation, convulsions, or perinatal death. RESULTS: Mean age was 29 years. In the financial incentives and control groups, respectively, 137 (59%) and 148 (65%) were employed, 163 (71%) and 171 (75%) were in a relationship, and 41 (18%) and 31 (13%) were married. The participants had smoked a median of 60 cigarettes in the past seven days. The continuous abstinence rate was significantly higher in the financial incentives group (16%, 38/231) than control group (7%, 17/229): odds ratio 2.45 (95% confidence interval 1.34 to 4.49), P=0.004). The point prevalence abstinence rate was higher (4.61, 1.41 to 15.01, P=0.011), the median time to relapse was longer (visit 5 (interquartile range 3-6) and visit 4 (3-6), P<0.001)), and craving for tobacco was lower (β=-1.81, 95% confidence interval -3.55 to -0.08, P=0.04) in the financial incentives group than control group. Financial incentives were associated with a 7% reduction in the risk of a poor neonatal outcome: 4 babies (2%) in the financial incentives group and 18 babies (9%) in the control group: mean difference 14 (95% confidence interval 5 to 23), P=0.003. Post hoc analyses suggested that more babies in the financial incentives group had birth weights ≥2500 g than in the control group: unadjusted odds ratio 1.95 (95% confidence interval 0.99 to 3.85), P=0.055; sex adjusted odds ratio 2.05 (1.03 to 4.10), P=0.041; and sex and prematurity adjusted odds ratio 2.06 (0.90 to 4.71), P=0.086. As these are post hoc analyses, the results should be interpreted with caution. CONCLUSIONS: Financial incentives to reward smoking abstinence compared with no financial incentives were associated with an increased abstinence rate in pregnant smokers. Financial incentives dependent on smoking abstinence could be implemented as a safe and effective intervention to help pregnant smokers quit smoking. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02606227.

This paper estimates the long-run impact of a large income shock based on regional variations in the 1987–89 locust plague in Mali. We take comprehensive population census data to construct birth cohorts of individuals and compare those born and living in the years and villages affected by locust plagues with other cohorts. We find a clear, strong impact on the educational outcomes of children living in rural areas, but no impact at all on children living in urban areas. School enrolment by boys born or less than four at the time of shock is found to be affected. School enrolment by boys born in 1987–88, the main infestation years, is found to be hardest hit by the plagues. However, although the impact on school enrolment figures is greater for boys than girls, the educational attainments of girls attending school and living in rural areas are harder hit than the boys. Our controls for individuals' potentially selective migration behaviour and for differences in school infrastructures do nothing to change our results. Our findings are also robust to controls for age misreporting and variations in the cohort cut-off point.

This comprehensive and up-to-date book explains the economic rationale behind the production, delivery and exchange of electricity. Cretì and Fontini explain why electricity markets exist, outlining the economic principles behind the exchange and supply of power to consumers and firms. They identify the specificities of electricity, as compared to other goods, and furthermore suggest how markets should be optimally designed to produce and deliver electricity effectively and efficiently. The authors also address key issues, including how electricity can be decarbonized. Written in a technical yet accessible style, this book will appeal to readers studying power system economics and the economics of electricity, as well as those more generally interested in energy economics, including engineering and management students looking to gain an understanding of electricity market analysis