National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention

BACKGROUND: Public health is a priority for the Chinese Government. Evidence-based decision making for health at the province level in China, which is home to a fifth of the global population, is of paramount importance. This analysis uses data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to help inform decision making and monitor progress on health at the province level. METHODS: We used the methods in GBD 2017 to analyse health patterns in the 34 province-level administrative units in China from 1990 to 2017. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), summary exposure values (SEVs), and attributable risk. We compared the observed results with expected values estimated based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). FINDINGS: Stroke and ischaemic heart disease were the leading causes of death and DALYs at the national level in China in 2017. Age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population decreased by 33·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 29·8 to 37·4) for stroke and increased by 4·6% (-3·3 to 10·7) for ischaemic heart disease from 1990 to 2017. Age-standardised stroke, ischaemic heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and liver cancer were the five leading causes of YLLs in 2017. Musculoskeletal disorders, mental health disorders, and sense organ diseases were the three leading causes of YLDs in 2017, and high systolic blood pressure, smoking, high-sodium diet, and ambient particulate matter pollution were among the leading four risk factors contributing to deaths and DALYs. All provinces had higher than expected DALYs per 100 000 population for liver cancer, with the observed to expected ratio ranging from 2·04 to 6·88. The all-cause age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population were lower than expected in all provinces in 2017, and among the top 20 level 3 causes were lower than expected for ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, headache disorder, and low back pain. The largest percentage change at the national level in age-standardised SEVs among the top ten leading risk factors was in high body-mass index (185%, 95% UI 113·1 to 247·7]), followed by ambient particulate matter pollution (88·5%, 66·4 to 116·4). INTERPRETATION: China has made substantial progress in reducing the burden of many diseases and disabilities. Strategies targeting chronic diseases, particularly in the elderly, should be prioritised in the expanding Chinese health-care system. FUNDING: China National Key Research and Development Program and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is a major global health concern. Quantitative estimates of attributable mortality are based on disease-specific hazard ratio models that incorporate risk information from multiple PM 2.5 sources (outdoor and indoor air pollution from use of solid fuels and secondhand and active smoking), requiring assumptions about equivalent exposure and toxicity. We relax these contentious assumptions by constructing a PM 2.5 -mortality hazard ratio function based only on cohort studies of outdoor air pollution that covers the global exposure range. We modeled the shape of the association between PM 2.5 and nonaccidental mortality using data from 41 cohorts from 16 countries—the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM). We then constructed GEMMs for five specific causes of death examined by the global burden of disease (GBD). The GEMM predicts 8.9 million [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.5–10.3] deaths in 2015, a figure 30% larger than that predicted by the sum of deaths among the five specific causes (6.9; 95% CI: 4.9–8.5) and 120% larger than the risk function used in the GBD (4.0; 95% CI: 3.3–4.8). Differences between the GEMM and GBD risk functions are larger for a 20% reduction in concentrations, with the GEMM predicting 220% higher excess deaths. These results suggest that PM 2.5 exposure may be related to additional causes of death than the five considered by the GBD and that incorporation of risk information from other, nonoutdoor, particle sources leads to underestimation of disease burden, especially at higher concentrations.

Background: China bears the biggest stroke burden in the world. However, little is known about the current prevalence, incidence, and mortality of stroke at the national level, and the trend in the past 30 years. Methods: In 2013, a nationally representative door-to-door survey was conducted in 155 urban and rural centers in 31 provinces in China, totaling 480 687 adults aged ≥20 years. All stroke survivors were considered as prevalent stroke cases at the prevalent time (August 31, 2013). First-ever strokes that occurred during 1 year preceding the survey point-prevalent time were considered as incident cases. According to computed tomography/MRI/autopsy findings, strokes were categorized into ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and stroke of undetermined type. Results: Of 480 687 participants, 7672 were diagnosed with a prevalent stroke (1596.0/100 000 people) and 1643 with incident strokes (345.1/100 000 person-years). The age-standardized prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates were 1114.8/100 000 people, 246.8 and 114.8/100 000 person-years, respectively. Pathological type of stroke was documented by computed tomography/MRI brain scanning in 90% of prevalent and 83% of incident stroke cases. Among incident and prevalent strokes, ischemic stroke constituted 69.6% and 77.8%, intracerebral hemorrhage 23.8% and 15.8%, subarachnoid hemorrhage 4.4% and 4.4%, and undetermined type 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively. Age-specific stroke prevalence in men aged ≥40 years was significantly greater than the prevalence in women ( P <0.001). The most prevalent risk factors among stroke survivors were hypertension (88%), smoking (48%), and alcohol use (44%). Stroke prevalence estimates in 2013 were statistically greater than those reported in China 3 decades ago, especially among rural residents ( P =0.017). The highest annual incidence and mortality of stroke was in Northeast (365 and 159/100 000 person-years), then Central areas (326 and 154/100 000 person-years), and the lowest incidence was in Southwest China (154/100 000 person-years), and the lowest mortality was in South China (65/100 000 person-years) ( P <0.002). Conclusions: Stroke burden in China has increased over the past 30 years, and remains particularly high in rural areas. There is a north-to-south gradient in stroke in China, with the greatest stroke burden observed in the northern and central regions.

Importance: Previous studies have shown increasing prevalence of diabetes in China, which now has the world's largest diabetes epidemic. Objectives: To estimate the recent prevalence and to investigate the ethnic variation of diabetes and prediabetes in the Chinese adult population. Design, Setting, and Participants: A nationally representative cross-sectional survey in 2013 in mainland China, which consisted of 170 287 participants. Exposures: Fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c levels were measured for all participants. A 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test was conducted for all participants without diagnosed diabetes. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were total diabetes and prediabetes defined according to the 2010 American Diabetes Association criteria. Awareness and treatment were also evaluated. Hemoglobin A1c concentration of less than 7.0% among treated diabetes patients was considered adequate glycemic control. Minority ethnic groups in China with at least 1000 participants (Tibetan, Zhuang, Manchu, Uyghur, and Muslim) were compared with Han participants. Results: Among the Chinese adult population, the estimated standardized prevalence of total diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes was 10.9% (95% CI, 10.4%-11.5%); that of diagnosed diabetes, 4.0% (95% CI, 3.6%-4.3%); and that of prediabetes, 35.7% (95% CI, 34.1%-37.4%). Among persons with diabetes, 36.5% (95% CI, 34.3%-38.6%) were aware of their diagnosis and 32.2% (95% CI, 30.1%-34.2%) were treated; 49.2% (95% CI, 46.9%-51.5%) of patients treated had adequate glycemic control. Tibetan and Muslim Chinese had significantly lower crude prevalence of diabetes than Han participants (14.7% [95% CI, 14.6%-14.9%] for Han, 4.3% [95% CI, 3.5%-5.0%] for Tibetan, and 10.6% [95% CI, 9.3%-11.9%] for Muslim; P < .001 for Tibetan and Muslim compared with Han). In the multivariable logistic models, the adjusted odds ratios compared with Han participants were 0.42 (95% CI, 0.35-0.50) for diabetes and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.84) for prediabetes for Tibetan Chinese and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.63-0.85) for diabetes and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.71-0.86) for prediabetes in Muslim Chinese. Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults in China, the estimated overall prevalence of diabetes was 10.9%, and that for prediabetes was 35.7%. Differences from previous estimates for 2010 may be due to an alternate method of measuring hemoglobin A1c.

BACKGROUND: falls and fall-related injuries are common in older adults, have negative effects on functional independence and quality of life and are associated with increased morbidity, mortality and health related costs. Current guidelines are inconsistent, with no up-to-date, globally applicable ones present. OBJECTIVES: to create a set of evidence- and expert consensus-based falls prevention and management recommendations applicable to older adults for use by healthcare and other professionals that consider: (i) a person-centred approach that includes the perspectives of older adults with lived experience, caregivers and other stakeholders; (ii) gaps in previous guidelines; (iii) recent developments in e-health and (iv) implementation across locations with limited access to resources such as low- and middle-income countries. METHODS: a steering committee and a worldwide multidisciplinary group of experts and stakeholders, including older adults, were assembled. Geriatrics and gerontological societies were represented. Using a modified Delphi process, recommendations from 11 topic-specific working groups (WGs), 10 ad-hoc WGs and a WG dealing with the perspectives of older adults were reviewed and refined. The final recommendations were determined by voting. RECOMMENDATIONS: all older adults should be advised on falls prevention and physical activity. Opportunistic case finding for falls risk is recommended for community-dwelling older adults. Those considered at high risk should be offered a comprehensive multifactorial falls risk assessment with a view to co-design and implement personalised multidomain interventions. Other recommendations cover details of assessment and intervention components and combinations, and recommendations for specific settings and populations. CONCLUSIONS: the core set of recommendations provided will require flexible implementation strategies that consider both local context and resources.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for ill-defined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. RESULTS: In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. CONCLUSIONS: Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made.

Importance: Recent data on prevalence, awareness, treatment, and risk factors of diabetes in China is necessary for interventional efforts. Objective: To estimate trends in prevalence, awareness, treatment, and risk factors of diabetes in China based on national data. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cross-sectional nationally representative survey data collected in adults aged 18 years or older in mainland China from 170 287 participants in the 2013-2014 years and 173 642 participants in the 2018-2019 years. Exposures: Fasting plasma glucose and hemoglobin A1c levels were measured for all participants. A 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test was conducted for all participants without diagnosed diabetes. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were diabetes and prediabetes defined according to American Diabetes Association criteria. Secondary outcomes were awareness, treatment, and control of diabetes and prevalence of risk factors. A hemoglobin A1c level of less than 7.0% (53 mmol/mol) among treated patients with diabetes was considered adequate glycemic control. Results: In 2013, the median age was 55.8 years (IQR, 46.4-65.2 years) and the weighted proportion of women was 50.0%; in 2018, the median age was 51.3 years (IQR, 42.1-61.6 years), and the weighted proportion of women was 49.5%. The estimated prevalence of diabetes increased from 10.9% (95% CI, 10.4%-11.5%) in 2013 to 12.4% (95% CI, 11.8%-13.0%) in 2018 (P < .001). The estimated prevalence of prediabetes was 35.7% (95% CI, 34.2%-37.3%) in 2013 and 38.1% (95% CI, 36.4%-39.7%) in 2018 (P = .07). In 2018, among adults with diabetes, 36.7% (95% CI, 34.7%-38.6%) reported being aware of their condition, and 32.9% (95% CI, 30.9%-34.8%) reported being treated; 50.1% (95% CI, 47.5%-52.6%) of patients receiving treatment were controlled adequately. These rates did not change significantly from 2013. From 2013 to 2018, low physical activity, high intake of red meat, overweight, and obesity significantly increased in prevalence. Conclusions and Relevance: In this survey study, the estimated diabetes prevalence was high and increased from 2013 to 2018. There was no significant improvement in the estimated prevalence of adequate treatment.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the temporal trend of the disease burden of stroke and its attributable risk factors in China, especially at provincial levels, is important for effective prevention strategies and improvement. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is to investigate the disease burden of stroke and its risk factors at national and provincial levels in China from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Following the methodology in the GBD 2019, the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of stroke cases in the Chinese population were estimated by sex, age, year, stroke subtypes (ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage), and across 33 provincial administrative units in China from 1990 to 2019. Attributable mortality and DALYs of underlying risk factors were calculated by a comparative risk assessment. FINDINGS: In 2019, there were 3·94 million (95% uncertainty interval 3·43-4·58) new stroke cases in China. The incidence rate of stroke increased by 86·0% (73·2-99·0) from 1990, reaching 276·7 (241·3-322·0) per 100 000 population in 2019. The age-standardised incidence rate declined by 9·3% (3·3-15·5) from 1990 to 2019. Among 28·76 million (25·60-32·21) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019, 24·18 million (20·80-27·87) were ischaemic stroke, 4·36 million (3·69-5·05) were intracerebral haemorrhage, and 1·58 million (1·32-1·91) were subarachnoid haemorrhage. The prevalence rate increased by 106·0% (93·7-118·8) and age-standardised prevalence rate increased by 13·2% (7·7-19·1) from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, there were 2·19 million (1·89-2·51) deaths and 45·9 million (39·8-52·3) DALYs due to stroke. The mortality rate increased by 32·3% (8·6-59·0) from 1990 to 2019. Over the same period, the age-standardised mortality rate decreased by 39·8% (28·6-50·7) and the DALY rate decreased by 41·6% (30·7-50·9). High systolic blood pressure, ambient particulate matter pollution exposure, smoking, and diet high in sodium were four major risk factors for stroke burden in 2019. Moreover, we found marked differences of stroke burden and attributable risk factors across provinces in China from 1990 to 2019. INTERPRETATION: The disease burden of stroke is still severe in China, although the age-standardised incidence and mortality rates have decreased since 1990. The stroke burden in China might be reduced through blood pressure management, lifestyle interventions, and air pollution control. Moreover, because substantial heterogeneity of stroke burden existed in different provinces, improved health care is needed in provinces with heavy stroke burden. FUNDING: National Key Research and Development Program of China and Taikang Yicai Public Health and Epidemic Control Fund.

BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

Abstract Rationale Evidence concerning the acute health effects of air pollution caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in developing countries is quite limited. Objectives To evaluate short-term associations between PM2.5 and daily cause-specific mortality in China. Methods A nationwide time-series analysis was performed in 272 representative Chinese cities from 2013 to 2015. Two-stage Bayesian hierarchical models were applied to estimate regional- and national-average associations between PM2.5 concentrations and daily cause-specific mortality. City-specific effects of PM2.5 were estimated using the overdispersed generalized additive models after adjusting for time trends, day of the week, and weather conditions. Exposure–response relationship curves and potential effect modifiers were also evaluated. Measurements and Main Results The average of annual mean PM2.5 concentration in each city was 56 μg/m3 (minimum, 18 μg/m3; maximum, 127 μg/m3). Each 10-μg/m3 increase in 2-day moving average of PM2.5 concentrations was significantly associated with increments in mortality of 0.22% from total nonaccidental causes, 0.27% from cardiovascular diseases, 0.39% from hypertension, 0.30% from coronary heart diseases, 0.23% from stroke, 0.29% from respiratory diseases, and 0.38% from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. There was a leveling off in the exposure–response curves at high concentrations in most, but not all, regions. The associations were stronger in cities with lower PM2.5 levels or higher temperatures, and in subpopulations with elder age or less education. Conclusions This nationwide investigation provided robust evidence of the associations between short-term exposure to PM2.5 and increased mortality from various cardiopulmonary diseases in China. The magnitude of associations was lower than those reported in Europe and North America.

Importance: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the top cause of death in China. To our knowledge, no consistent and comparable assessments of CVD burden have been produced at subnational levels, and little is understood about the spatial patterns and temporal trends of CVD in China. Objective: To determine the national and province-level burden of CVD from 1990 to 2016 in China. Design, Setting, and Participants: Following the methodology framework and analytical strategies used in the 2016 Global Burden of Disease study, the mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of CVD in the Chinese population were examined by age, sex, and year and according to 10 subcategories. Estimates were produced for all province-level administrative units of mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao. Exposures: Residence in China. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality, prevalence, and DALYs of CVD. Results: The annual number of deaths owing to CVD increased from 2.51 million to 3.97 million between 1990 and 2016; the age-standardized mortality rate fell by 28.7%, from 431.6 per 100 000 persons in 1990 to 307.9 per 100 000 in 2016. Prevalent cases of CVD doubled since 1990, reaching nearly 94 million in 2016. The age-standardized prevalence rate of CVD overall increased significantly from 1990 to 2016 by 14.7%, as did rates for ischemic heart disease (19.1%), ischemic stroke (36.6%), cardiomyopathy and myocarditis (23.1%), and endocarditis (26.7%). Substantial reduction in the CVD burden, as measured by age-standardized DALY rate, was observed from 1990 to 2016 nationally, with a greater reduction in women (43.7%) than men (24.7%). There were marked differences in the spatial patterns of mortality, prevalence, and DALYs of CVD overall as well as its main subcategories, including ischemic heart disease, hemorrhagic stroke, and ischemic stroke. The CVD burden appeared to be lower in coastal provinces with higher economic development. The between-province gap in relative burden of CVD increased from 1990 to 2016, with faster decline in economically developed provinces. Conclusions and Relevance: Substantial discrepancies in the total CVD burden and burdens of CVD subcategories have persisted between provinces in China despite a relative decrease in the CVD burden. Geographically targeted considerations are needed to tailor future strategies to enhance CVD health throughout China and in specific provinces.

Significance An estimated 4.5 billion people are currently exposed to particulate matter (PM) levels at least twice the concentration that the WHO considers safe. Existing evidence linking health to air pollution is largely based on populations exposed to only modest levels of PM and almost entirely composed of observational studies, which are likely to confound air pollution with other unobserved determinants of health. This study uses quasiexperimental variation in particulate matter smaller than 10 μm (PM 10 ) generated by an arbitrary Chinese policy to find that a 10-μg/m 3 increase in PM 10 reduces life expectancy by 0.64 years. The estimates imply that bringing all of China into compliance with its Class I standards for PM 10 would save 3.7 billion life-years.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between temperature and cause specific mortality, and to quantify the corresponding disease burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperatures. DESIGN: Time series analysis. SETTING: 272 main cities in China. POPULATION: Non-accidental deaths in 272 cities covered by the Disease Surveillance Point System of China, from January 2013 to December 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Daily numbers of deaths from all non-accidental causes and main cardiorespiratory diseases. Potential effect modifiers included demographic, climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic characteristics. The analysis used distributed lag non-linear models to estimate city specific associations, and multivariate meta-regression analysis to obtain the effect estimates at national and regional levels. RESULTS: 1 826 186 non-accidental deaths from total causes were recorded in the study period. Temperature and mortality consistently showed inversely J shaped associations. At the national average level, relative to the minimum mortality temperature (22.8°C, 79.1st centile), the mortality risk of extreme cold temperature (at -1.4°C, the 2.5th centile) lasted for more than 14 days, whereas the risk of extreme hot temperature (at 29.0°C, the 97.5th centile) appeared immediately and lasted for two to three days. 14.33% of non-accidental total mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperatures, of which moderate cold (ranging from -1.4 to 22.8°C), moderate heat (22.8 to 29.0°C), extreme cold (-6.4 to -1.4°C), and extreme heat (29.0 to 31.6°C) temperatures corresponded to attributable fractions of 10.49%, 2.08%, 1.14%, and 0.63%, respectively. The attributable fractions were 17.48% for overall cardiovascular disease, 18.76% for coronary heart disease, 16.11% for overall stroke, 14.09% for ischaemic stroke, 18.10% for haemorrhagic stroke, 10.57% for overall respiratory disease, and 12.57% for chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases. The mortality risk and burden were more prominent in the temperate monsoon and subtropical monsoon climatic zones, in specific subgroups (female sex, age ≥75 years, and ≤9 years spent in education), and in cities characterised by higher urbanisations rates and shorter durations of central heating. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide study provides a comprehensive picture of the non-linear associations between ambient temperature and mortality from all natural causes and main cardiorespiratory diseases, as well as the corresponding disease burden that is mainly attributable to moderate cold temperatures in China. The findings on vulnerability characteristics can help improve clinical and public health practices to reduce disease burden associated with current and future abnormal weather.

BackgroundAir pollution is an important public health concern in China, with high levels of exposure to both ambient and household air pollution. To inform action at provincial levels in China, we estimated the exposure to air pollution and its effect on deaths, disease burden, and loss of life expectancy across all provinces in China from 1990 to 2017.MethodsIn all 33 provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, and special administrative regions in China, we estimated exposure to air pollution, including ambient particulate matter pollution (defined as the annual gridded concentration of PM2·5), household air pollution (defined as the percentage of households using solid cooking fuels and the corresponding exposure to PM2·5), and ozone pollution (defined as average gridded ozone concentrations). We used the methods of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 to estimate deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to air pollution, and what the life expectancy would have been if air pollution levels had been less than the minimum level causing health loss.FindingsThe average annual population-weighted PM2·5 exposure in China was 52·7 μg/m3 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 41·0–62·8) in 2017, which is 9% lower than in 1990 (57·8 μg/m3, 45·0–67·0). We estimated that 1·24 million (95% UI 1·08–1·40) deaths in China were attributable to air pollution in 2017, including 851 660 (712 002–990 271) from ambient PM2·5 pollution, 271 089 (209 882–346 561) from household air pollution from solid fuels, and 178 187 (67 650–286 229) from ambient ozone pollution. The age-standardised DALY rate attributable to air pollution was 1513·1 per 100 000 in China in 2017, and was higher in males (1839·8 per 100 000) than in females (1198·3 per 100 000). The age-standardised death rate attributable to air pollution decreased by 60·6% (55·7–63·7) for China overall between 1990 and 2017, driven by an 85·4% (83·2–87·3) decline in household air pollution and a 12·0% (1·4–22·1) decline in ambient PM2·5 pollution. 40·0% of DALYs for COPD were attributable to air pollution, as were 35·6% of DALYs for lower respiratory infections, 26·1% for diabetes, 25·8% for lung cancer, 19·5% for ischaemic heart disease, and 12·8% for stroke. We estimated that if the air pollution level in China was below the minimum causing health loss, the average life expectancy would have been 1·25 years greater. The DALY rate per 100 000 attributable to air pollution varied across provinces, ranging from 482·3 (371·1–604·1) in Hong Kong to 1725·6 (720·4–2653·1) in Xinjiang for ambient pollution, and from 18·7 (9·1–34·0) in Shanghai to 1804·5 (1339·5–2270·1) in Tibet for household pollution. Although the overall mortality attributable to air pollution decreased in China between 1990 and 2017, 12 provinces showed an increasing trend during the past 27 years.InterpretationPollution from ambient PM2·5 and household burning of solid fuels decreased markedly in recent years in China, after extensive efforts to control emissions. However, PM2·5 concentrations still exceed the WHO Air Quality Guideline for the entire population of China, with 81% living in regions exceeding the WHO Interim Target 1, and air pollution remains an important risk factor. Sustainable development policies should be implemented and enforced to reduce the impact of air pollution on long-term economic development and population health.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and China National Key Research and Development Program.

Importance: Stroke is the leading cause of death in China. However, recent data about the up-to-date stroke burden in China are limited. Objective: To investigate the urban-rural disparity of stroke burden in the Chinese adult population, including prevalence, incidence, and mortality rate, and disparities between urban and rural populations. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study was based on a nationally representative survey that included 676 394 participants aged 40 years and older. It was conducted from July 2020 to December 2020 in 31 provinces in mainland China. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was self-reported stroke verified by trained neurologists during a face-to-face interviews using a standardized protocol. Stroke incidence were assessed by defining first-ever strokes that occurred during 1 year preceding the survey. Strokes causing death that occurred during the 1 year preceding the survey were considered as death cases. Results: The study included 676 394 Chinese adults (395 122 [58.4%] females; mean [SD] age, 59.7 [11.0] years). In 2020, the weighted prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates of stroke in China were 2.6% (95% CI, 2.6%-2.6%), 505.2 (95% CI, 488.5-522.0) per 100 000 person-years, and 343.4 (95% CI, 329.6-357.2) per 100 000 person-years, respectively. It was estimated that among the Chinese population aged 40 years and older in 2020, there were 3.4 (95% CI, 3.3-3.6) million incident cases of stroke, 17.8 (95% CI, 17.5-18.0) million prevalent cases of stroke, and 2.3 (95% CI, 2.2-2.4) million deaths from stroke. Ischemic stroke constituted 15.5 (95% CI, 15.2-15.6) million (86.8%) of all incident strokes in 2020, while intracerebral hemorrhage constituted 2.1 (95% CI, 2.1-2.1) million (11.9%) and subarachnoid hemorrhage constituted 0.2 (95% CI, 0.2-0.2) million (1.3%). The prevalence of stroke was higher in urban than in rural areas (2.7% [95% CI, 2.6%-2.7%] vs 2.5% [95% CI, 2.5%-2.6%]; P = .02), but the incidence rate (485.5 [95% CI, 462.8-508.3] vs 520.8 [95% CI, 496.3-545.2] per 100 000 person-years; P < .001) and mortality rate (309.9 [95% CI, 291.7-328.1] vs 369.7 [95% CI, 349.1-390.3] per 100 000 person-years; P < .001) were lower in urban areas than in rural areas. In 2020, the leading risk factor for stroke was hypertension (OR, 3.20 [95% CI, 3.09-3.32]). Conclusions and Relevance: In a large, nationally representative sample of adults aged 40 years or older, the estimated prevalence, incidence, and mortality rate of stroke in China in 2020 were 2.6%, 505.2 per 100 000 person-years, and 343.4 per 100 000 person-years, respectively, indicating the need for an improved stroke prevention strategy in the general Chinese population.

Importance: The aging of the population is associated with an increasing burden of fractures worldwide. However, the epidemiological features of fractures in mainland China are not well known. Objective: To assess the prevalence of and factors associated with osteoporosis, clinical fractures, and vertebral fractures in an adult population 40 years or older in mainland China. Design, Setting. and Participants: This cross-sectional study, the China Osteoporosis Prevalence Study, was conducted from December 2017 to August 2018. A random sample of individuals aged 20 years or older who represented urban and rural areas of China were enrolled, with a 99% participation rate. Main Outcomes and Measures: Weighted prevalence of osteoporosis, clinical fracture, and vertebral fracture by age, sex, and urban vs rural residence as determined by x-ray absorptiometry, questionnaire, and radiography. Results: A total of 20 416 participants were included in this study; 20 164 (98.8%; 11 443 women [56.7%]; mean [SD] age, 53 [13] years) had a qualified x-ray absorptiometry image and completed the questionnaire, and 8423 of 8800 (95.7%) had a qualified spine radiograph. The prevalence of osteoporosis among those aged 40 years or older was 5.0% (95% CI, 4.2%-5.8%) among men and 20.6% (95% CI, 19.3%-22.0%) among women. The prevalence of vertebral fracture was 10.5% (95% CI, 9.0%-12.0%) among men and 9.7% (95% CI, 8.2%-11.1%) among women. The prevalence of clinical fracture in the past 5 years was 4.1% (95% CI, 3.3%-4.9%) among men and 4.2% (95% CI, 3.6%-4.7%) among women. Among men and women, 0.3% (95% CI, 0.0%-0.7%) and 1.4% (95% CI, 0.8%-2.0%), respectively, with osteoporosis diagnosed on the basis of bone mineral density or with fracture were receiving antiosteoporosis treatment to prevent fracture. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of an adult population in mainland China, the prevalence of osteoporosis and vertebral fracture were high and the prevalence of vertebral fracture and clinical fracture was similarly high in men and women. These findings suggest that current guidelines for screening and treatment of fractures among patients in China should focus equally on men and women and should emphasize the prevention of vertebral fractures.

China faces the greatest challenge from stroke in the world. The death rate for cerebrovascular diseases in China was 149.49 per 100 000, accounting for 1.57 million deaths in 2018. It ranked third among the leading causes of death behind malignant tumours and heart disease. The age-standardised prevalence and incidence of stroke in 2013 were 1114.8 per 100 000 population and 246.8 per 100 000 person-years, respectively. According to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, the years of life lost (YLLs) per 100 000 population for stroke increased by 14.6%; YLLs due to stroke rose from third highest among all causes in 1990 to the highest in 2017. The absolute numbers and rates per 100 000 population for all-age disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for stroke increased substantially between 1990 and 2017, and stroke was the leading cause of all-age DALYs in 2017. The main contributors to cerebrovascular diseases include behavioural risk factors (smoking and alcohol use) and pre-existing conditions (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidaemia and atrial fibrillation (AF)). The most prevalent risk factors among stroke survivors were hypertension (63.0%-84.2%) and smoking (31.7%-47.6%). The least prevalent was AF (2.7%-7.4%). The prevalences for major risk factors for stroke are high and most have increased over time. Based on the latest national epidemiological data, 26.6% of adults aged ≥15 years (307.6 million adults) smoked tobacco products. For those aged ≥18 years, age-adjusted prevalence of hypertension was 25.2%; adjusted prevalence of hypercholesterolaemia was 5.8%; and the standardised prevalence of diabetes was 10.9%. For those aged ≥40 years, the standardised prevalence of AF was 2.31%. Data from the Hospital Quality Monitoring System showed that 3 010 204 inpatients with stroke were admitted to 1853 tertiary care hospitals during 2018. Of those, 2 466 785 (81.9%) were ischaemic strokes (ISs); 447 609 (14.9%) were intracerebral haemorrhages (ICHs); and 95 810 (3.2%) were subarachnoid haemorrhages (SAHs). The average age of patients admitted was 66 years old, and nearly 60% were male. A total of 1555 (0.1%), 2774 (0.6%) and 1347 (1.4%) paediatric strokes (age <18 years) were identified among IS, ICH and SAH, respectively. Over one-third (1 063 892 (35.3%)) of the patients were covered by urban resident basic medical insurance, followed by urban employee basic medical insurance (699 513 (23.2%)) and new rural cooperative medical schema (489 361 (16.3%)). The leading risk factor was hypertension (67.4% for IS, 77.2% for ICH and 49.1% for SAH), and the leading comorbidity was pneumonia or pulmonary infection (10.1% for IS, 31.4% for ICH and 25.2% for SAH). In-hospital death/discharge against medical advice rate was 8.3% for stroke inpatients, ranging from 5.8% for IS to 19.5% for ICH. The median and IQR of length of stay was 10.0 (7.0-14.0) days, ranging from 10.0 (7.0-13.0) in IS to 14.0 (8.0-22.0) in SAH. Data from the Chinese Stroke Center Alliance demonstrated that the composite scores of guideline-recommended key performance indicators for patients with IS, ICH and SAH were 0.77±0.21, 0.72±0.28 and 0.59±0.32, respectively.

Importance: To our knowledge, there has been no update on the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in China since 2012. Objective: To provide periodic nationwide data on the prevalence of CKD and the associated behavioral and metabolic risk factors in China. Design, Setting, and Participants: This nationally representative cross-sectional study included data from 176 874 adults from all 31 provincial-level administrative divisions in mainland China, as reported in the sixth China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance conducted from August 2018 to June 2019. Data analysis was performed in 2021 to 2022. Exposures: Serum creatinine, urinal creatinine, and urine albumin were measured for all participants. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated from serum creatinine using the CKD-EPI equation. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was weighted prevalence of CKD in the overall population and different strata, defined as presence of impaired kidney function (eGFR of <60 mL/min/1.73m2) or albuminuria (urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio of ≥30 mg/g). Secondary outcomes were awareness of CKD and control of comorbidities. Logistic regression was used to examine the association of sociodemographic characteristics, behavioral and dietary habits, physical activity, and comorbidities with CKD. Results: A total of 184 876 participants contributed data to this study, and of the 176 874 adults 18 years and older with measurements of eGFR and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio in 2018 to 2019, the mean age was 43.8 years and the weighted proportion of women was 44.6%. The estimated prevalence of CKD, impaired kidney function, and albuminuria were 8.2%, 2.2%, and 6.7%, respectively. A higher prevalence of CKD was observed in the subgroups characterized by older age, female gender, non-Han ethnicity, residency of rural or north and central parts of China, receiving less education or lower income, former smoking, no alcohol drinking, lacking physical activity, and presence of risk factors such as obesity, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, and self-reported cardiovascular disease. Among the adults with CKD, 73.3%, 25.0%, and 1.8% were at stage 1 to 2, 3, and 4 to 5, respectively, and the awareness of CKD was 10.0%. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found a weighted estimated of 82 million adults with CKD in China in 2018 to 2019. The prevalence appears to have decreased by 30% in the past decade. Better environmental protection, integration of CKD into the national public health surveillance program, and control of common CKD comorbidities appear to be associated with reducing the disease burden of CKD.

BACKGROUND: Cancer has been the leading cause of death since 2010 in China, with increasing incidence, mortality, and burden. We aimed to assess national and subnational changes in the cancer burden from 2005 to 2020 in China using data from the National Mortality Surveillance System. METHODS: We extracted data on cancer-related deaths from the National Mortality Surveillance System, which accounts for 24·3% of the country's population with national and provincial representativeness. Data for the surveillance population stratified by age and sex were extracted from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. We estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) for all cancers and for 23 cancer groups by age and sex, nationally, and for 31 provinces in China between 2005 and 2020. We calculated age-standardised mortality and YLL rates using the China 2020 census as the reference population. Average annual percent changes in age-standardised rates for mortality and YLLs were calculated to assess trends over the study period. Decomposition analysis was used to assess the drivers of changes in cancer-related death due to three explanatory components: population growth, population ageing, and age-specific mortality rates in China. FINDINGS: The total number of cancer-related deaths increased by 21·6% to 2 397 772 and YLLs increased by 5·0% to 56 598 975 between 2005 and 2020. The three leading fatal cancer types remained stable for both sexes over the study period: tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer; liver cancer; and stomach cancer. The fourth and fifth leading cancers also remained stable among males (oesophageal, and colon and rectum), while colon and rectum cancer replaced oesophageal cancer as the fourth and breast cancer replaced colon and rectum cancer as the fifth leading cause of cancer-related death among females. Age-standardised mortality rates and age-standardised YLL rates for almost all cancer types (except for prostate for male and multiple myeloma for female) decreased significantly in both sexes in urban areas. Age-standardised YLL rates increased for about half of all cancers for both sexes in rural areas. Leading fatal types were leukaemia and brain and nervous system cancer in younger groups (aged 0-19 years); liver, tracheal, bronchus, and lung, or breast cancers in middle-aged groups (aged 40-59 years); and tracheal, bronchus, and lung, liver, or stomach cancers in older adults (aged ≥60 years) in 2020. The leading causes of cancer-related mortality varied for each province, with tracheal, bronchus, and lung or liver cancer at the top in 30 provinces. INTERPRETATION: The cancer burden in China appeared to be shifting towards that in high-income countries from 2005 to 2020. Adjustments to existing health plans and actions are needed to reduce the burdens of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer or other leading and emerging cancers. FUNDING: National Key Research and Development Program of China.

OBJECTIVE: The Chinese population has been aging rapidly and the country's economy has experienced exponential growth during the past three decades. The goal of this study was to estimate the changes in the prevalence of dementia, Alzheimer's disease (AD), and vascular dementia (VaD) among elderly Chinese individuals and to analyze differences between urban and rural areas. METHODS: For the years 2008 to 2009, we performed a population-based cross-sectional survey with a multistage cluster sampling design. Residents aged 65 years and older were drawn from 30 urban (n = 6096) and 45 rural (n = 4180) communities across China. Participants were assessed with a series of clinical examinations and neuropsychological measures. Dementia, AD, and VaD were diagnosed according to established criteria via standard diagnostic procedures. RESULTS: The prevalence of dementia, AD, and VaD among individuals aged 65 years and older were 5.14% (95% CI, 4.71-5.57), 3.21% (95% CI, 2.87-3.55), and 1.50% (95% CI, 1.26-1.74), respectively. The prevalence of dementia was significantly higher in rural areas than in urban ones (6.05% vs. 4.40%, P < .001). The same regional difference was also seen for AD (4.25% vs. 2.44%, P < .001) but not for VaD (1.28% vs. 1.61%, P = .166). The difference in AD was not evident when the sample was stratified by educational level. Moreover, the risk factors for AD and VaD differed for urban and rural populations. CONCLUSIONS: A notably higher prevalence of dementia and AD was found in rural areas than in urban ones, and education might be an important reason for the urban-rural differences.