National Institute of Epidemiology

Abstract Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3–6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effectiveness of using convalescent plasma to treat moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in adults in India. DESIGN: Open label, parallel arm, phase II, multicentre, randomised controlled trial. SETTING: 39 public and private hospitals across India. PARTICIPANTS: ) ratio between 200 mm Hg and 300 mm Hg or a respiratory rate of more than 24/min with oxygen saturation 93% or less on room air): 235 were assigned to convalescent plasma with best standard of care (intervention arm) and 229 to best standard of care only (control arm). INTERVENTIONS: Participants in the intervention arm received two doses of 200 mL convalescent plasma, transfused 24 hours apart. The presence and levels of neutralising antibodies were not measured a priori; stored samples were assayed at the end of the study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: <100 mm Hg) or all cause mortality at 28 days post-enrolment. RESULTS: Progression to severe disease or all cause mortality at 28 days after enrolment occurred in 44 (19%) participants in the intervention arm and 41 (18%) in the control arm (risk difference 0.008 (95% confidence interval -0.062 to 0.078); risk ratio 1.04, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.54). CONCLUSION: Convalescent plasma was not associated with a reduction in progression to severe covid-19 or all cause mortality. This trial has high generalisability and approximates convalescent plasma use in real life settings with limited laboratory capacity. A priori measurement of neutralising antibody titres in donors and participants might further clarify the role of convalescent plasma in the management of covid-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trial Registry of India CTRI/2020/04/024775.

BACKGROUND: The nationwide effects of smoking on mortality in India have not been assessed reliably. METHODS: In a nationally representative sample of 1.1 million homes, we compared the prevalence of smoking among 33,000 deceased women and 41,000 deceased men (case subjects) with the prevalence of smoking among 35,000 living women and 43,000 living men (unmatched control subjects). Mortality risk ratios comparing smokers with nonsmokers were adjusted for age, educational level, and use of alcohol. RESULTS: About 5% of female control subjects and 37% of male control subjects between the ages of 30 and 69 years were smokers. In this age group, smoking was associated with an increased risk of death from any medical cause among both women (risk ratio, 2.0; 99% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 2.3) and men (risk ratio, 1.7; 99% CI, 1.6 to 1.8). Daily smoking of even a small amount of tobacco was associated with increased mortality. Excess deaths among smokers, as compared with nonsmokers, were chiefly from tuberculosis among both women (risk ratio, 3.0; 99% CI, 2.4 to 3.9) and men (risk ratio, 2.3; 99% CI, 2.1 to 2.6) and from respiratory, vascular, or neoplastic disease. Smoking was associated with a reduction in median survival of 8 years for women (99% CI, 5 to 11) and 6 years for men (99% CI, 5 to 7). If these associations are mainly causal, smoking in persons between the ages of 30 and 69 years is responsible for about 1 in 20 deaths of women and 1 in 5 deaths of men. In 2010, smoking will cause about 930,000 adult deaths in India; of the dead, about 70% (90,000 women and 580,000 men) will be between the ages of 30 and 69 years. Because of population growth, the absolute number of deaths in this age group is rising by about 3% per year. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking causes a large and growing number of premature deaths in India.

RATIONALE: Considerable confusion exists regarding nomenclature, classification, and management of pediatric diffuse lung diseases due to the relative rarity and differences in the spectrum of disease between adults and young children. OBJECTIVES: A multidisciplinary working group was formed to: (1) apply consensus terminology and diagnostic criteria for disorders presenting with diffuse lung disease in infancy; and (2) describe the distribution of disease entities, clinical features, and outcome in young children who currently undergo lung biopsy in North America. METHODS: Eleven centers provided pathologic material, clinical data, and imaging from all children less than 2 years of age who underwent lung biopsy for diffuse lung disease from 1999 to 2004. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Multidisciplinary review categorized 88% of 187 cases. Disorders more prevalent in infancy, including primary developmental and lung growth abnormalities, neuroendocrine cell hyperplasia of infancy, and surfactant-dysfunction disorders, constituted the majority of cases (60%). Lung growth disorders were often unsuspected clinically and under-recognized histologically. Cases with known surfactant mutations had characteristic pathologic features. Age at biopsy and clinical presentation varied among categories. Pulmonary hypertension, presence of a primary developmental abnormality, or ABCA3 mutation was associated with high mortality, while no deaths occurred in cases of pulmonary interstitial glycogenosis, or neuroendocrine cell hyperplasia of infancy. CONCLUSIONS: This retrospective cohort study identifies a diverse spectrum of lung disorders, largely unique to young children. Application of a classification scheme grouped clinically distinct patients with variable age of biopsy and mortality. Standardized terminology and classification will enhance accurate description and diagnosis of these disorders.

AIM: To review the current evidence concerning the long-term harmful effects of premature or early menopause, and to discuss some of the clinical implications. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Narrative review of the literature. RESULTS: Women undergoing premature or early menopause, either following bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy or because of primary ovarian insufficiency, experience the early loss of estrogen and other ovarian hormones. The long-term consequences of premature or early menopause include adverse effects on cognition, mood, cardiovascular, bone, and sexual health, as well as an increased risk of early mortality. The use of hormone therapy has been shown to lessen some, although not all of these risks. Therefore, multiple medical societies recommend providing hormone therapy at least until the natural age of menopause. It is important to individualize hormone therapy for women with early estrogen deficiency, and higher dosages may be needed to approximate physiological concentrations found in premenopausal women. It is also important to address the psychological impact of early menopause and to review the options for fertility and the potential need for contraception, if the ovaries are intact. CONCLUSIONS: Women who undergo premature or early menopause should receive individualized hormone therapy and counseling.

Oral, pharyngeal and esophageal cancers are 3 of the 5 most common cancer sites in Indian men. To assess the effect of different patterns of smoking, chewing and alcohol drinking in the development of the above 3 neoplasms and to determine the interaction among these habits, we conducted a case-control study in Chennai and Trivandrum, South India. The cases included 1,563 oral, 636 pharyngeal and 566 esophageal male cancer patients who were compared with 1,711 male disease controls from the 2 centers as well as 1,927 male healthy hospital visitors from Chennai. We observed a significant dose-response relationship for duration and amount of consumption of the 3 habits with the development of the 3 neoplasms. Tobacco chewing emerged as the strongest risk factor for oral cancer, with the highest odds ratio (OR) for chewing products containing tobacco of 5.05 [95% confidence internal (CI) 4.26-5.97]. The strongest risk factor for pharyngeal and esophageal cancers was tobacco smoking, with ORs of 4.00 (95% CI 3.07-5.22) and 2.83 (95% CI 2.18-3.66) in current smokers, respectively. An independent increase in risk was observed for each habit in the absence of the other 2. For example, the OR of oral cancers for alcohol drinking in never smokers and never chewers was 2.56 (95% CI 1.42-4.64) and that of esophageal cancers was 3.41 (95% CI 1.46-7.99). Furthermore, significant decreases in risks for all 3 cancer sites were observed in subjects who quit smoking even among those who had quit smoking 2-4 years before the interview.

BACKGROUND: For more than three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has provided a framework to quantify health loss due to diseases, injuries, and associated risk factors. This paper presents GBD 2023 findings on disease and injury burden and risk-attributable health loss, offering a global audit of the state of world health to inform public health priorities. This work captures the evolving landscape of health metrics across age groups, sexes, and locations, while reflecting on the remaining post-COVID-19 challenges to achieving our collective global health ambitions. METHODS: The GBD 2023 combined analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 375 diseases and injuries, and risk-attributable burden associated with 88 modifiable risk factors. Of the more than 310 000 total data sources used for all GBD 2023 (about 30% of which were new to this estimation round), more than 120 000 sources were used for estimation of disease and injury burden and 59 000 for risk factor estimation, and included vital registration systems, surveys, disease registries, and published scientific literature. Data were analysed using previously established modelling approaches, such as disease modelling meta-regression version 2.1 (DisMod-MR 2.1) and comparative risk assessment methods. Diseases and injuries were categorised into four levels on the basis of the established GBD cause hierarchy, as were risk factors using the GBD risk hierarchy. Estimates stratified by age, sex, location, and year from 1990 to 2023 were focused on disease-specific time trends over the 2010-23 period and presented as counts (to three significant figures) and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years (to one decimal place). For each measure, 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs] were calculated with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile ordered values from a 250-draw distribution. FINDINGS: Total numbers of global DALYs grew 6·1% (95% UI 4·0-8·1), from 2·64 billion (2·46-2·86) in 2010 to 2·80 billion (2·57-3·08) in 2023, but age-standardised DALY rates, which account for population growth and ageing, decreased by 12·6% (11·0-14·1), revealing large long-term health improvements. Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) contributed 1·45 billion (1·31-1·61) global DALYs in 2010, increasing to 1·80 billion (1·63-2·03) in 2023, alongside a concurrent 4·1% (1·9-6·3) reduction in age-standardised rates. Based on DALY counts, the leading level 3 NCDs in 2023 were ischaemic heart disease (193 million [176-209] DALYs), stroke (157 million [141-172]), and diabetes (90·2 million [75·2-107]), with the largest increases in age-standardised rates since 2010 occurring for anxiety disorders (62·8% [34·0-107·5]), depressive disorders (26·3% [11·6-42·9]), and diabetes (14·9% [7·5-25·6]). Remarkable health gains were made for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases, with DALYs falling from 874 million (837-917) in 2010 to 681 million (642-736) in 2023, and a 25·8% (22·6-28·7) reduction in age-standardised DALY rates. During the COVID-19 pandemic, DALYs due to CMNN diseases rose but returned to pre-pandemic levels by 2023. From 2010 to 2023, decreases in age-standardised rates for CMNN diseases were led by rate decreases of 49·1% (32·7-61·0) for diarrhoeal diseases, 42·9% (38·0-48·0) for HIV/AIDS, and 42·2% (23·6-56·6) for tuberculosis. Neonatal disorders and lower respiratory infections remained the leading level 3 CMNN causes globally in 2023, although both showed notable rate decreases from 2010, declining by 16·5% (10·6-22·0) and 24·8% (7·4-36·7), respectively. Injury-related age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 15·6% (10·7-19·8) over the same period. Differences in burden due to NCDs, CMNN diseases, and injuries persisted across age, sex, time, and location. Based on our risk analysis, nearly 50% (1·27 billion [1·18-1·38]) of the roughly 2·80 billion total global DALYs in 2023 were attributable to the 88 risk factors analysed in GBD. Globally, the five level 3 risk factors contributing the highest proportion of risk-attributable DALYs were high systolic blood pressure (SBP), particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), smoking, and low birthweight and short gestation-with high SBP accounting for 8·4% (6·9-10·0) of total DALYs. Of the three overarching level 1 GBD risk factor categories-behavioural, metabolic, and environmental and occupational-risk-attributable DALYs rose between 2010 and 2023 only for metabolic risks, increasing by 30·7% (24·8-37·3); however, age-standardised DALY rates attributable to metabolic risks decreased by 6·7% (2·0-11·0) over the same period. For all but three of the 25 leading level 3 risk factors, age-standardised rates dropped between 2010 and 2023-eg, declining by 54·4% (38·7-65·3) for unsafe sanitation, 50·5% (33·3-63·1) for unsafe water source, and 45·2% (25·6-72·0) for no access to handwashing facility, and by 44·9% (37·3-53·5) for child growth failure. The three leading level 3 risk factors for which age-standardised attributable DALY rates rose were high BMI (10·5% [0·1 to 20·9]), drug use (8·4% [2·6 to 15·3]), and high FPG (6·2% [-2·7 to 15·6]; non-significant). INTERPRETATION: Our findings underscore the complex and dynamic nature of global health challenges. Since 2010, there have been large decreases in burden due to CMNN diseases and many environmental and behavioural risk factors, juxtaposed with sizeable increases in DALYs attributable to metabolic risk factors and NCDs in growing and ageing populations. This long-observed consequence of the global epidemiological transition was only temporarily interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The substantially decreasing CMNN disease burden, despite the 2008 global financial crisis and pandemic-related disruptions, is one of the greatest collective public health successes known. However, these achievements are at risk of being reversed due to major cuts to development assistance for health globally, the effects of which will hit low-income countries with high burden the hardest. Without sustained investment in evidence-based interventions and policies, progress could stall or reverse, leading to widespread human costs and geopolitical instability. Moreover, the rising NCD burden necessitates intensified efforts to mitigate exposure to leading risk factors-eg, air pollution, smoking, and metabolic risks, such as high SBP, BMI, and FPG-including policies that promote food security, healthier diets, physical activity, and equitable and expanded access to potential treatments, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists. Decisive, coordinated action is needed to address long-standing yet growing health challenges, including depressive and anxiety disorders. Yet this can be only part of the solution. Our response to the NCD syndemic-the complex interaction of multiple health risks, social determinants, and systemic challenges-will define the future landscape of global health. To ensure human wellbeing, economic stability, and social equity, global action to sustain and advance health gains must prioritise reducing disparities by addressing socioeconomic and demographic determinants, ensuring equitable health-care access, tackling malnutrition, strengthening health systems, and improving vaccination coverage. We live in times of great opportunity. FUNDING: Gates Foundation and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

BACKGROUND: Over 75% of the annual estimated 9.5 million deaths in India occur in the home, and the large majority of these do not have a certified cause. India and other developing countries urgently need reliable quantification of the causes of death. They also need better epidemiological evidence about the relevance of physical (such as blood pressure and obesity), behavioral (such as smoking, alcohol, HIV-1 risk taking, and immunization history), and biological (such as blood lipids and gene polymorphisms) measurements to the development of disease in individuals or disease rates in populations. We report here on the rationale, design, and implementation of the world's largest prospective study of the causes and correlates of mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We will monitor nearly 14 million people in 2.4 million nationally representative Indian households (6.3 million people in 1.1 million households in the 1998-2003 sample frame and 7.6 million people in 1.3 million households in the 2004-2014 sample frame) for vital status and, if dead, the causes of death through a well-validated verbal autopsy (VA) instrument. About 300,000 deaths from 1998-2003 and some 700,000 deaths from 2004-2014 are expected; of these about 850,000 will be coded by two physicians to provide causes of death by gender, age, socioeconomic status, and geographical region. Pilot studies will evaluate the addition of physical and biological measurements, specifically dried blood spots. Preliminary results from over 35,000 deaths suggest that VA can ascertain the leading causes of death, reduce the misclassification of causes, and derive the probable underlying cause of death when it has not been reported. VA yields broad classification of the underlying causes in about 90% of deaths before age 70. In old age, however, the proportion of classifiable deaths is lower. By tracking underlying demographic denominators, the study permits quantification of absolute mortality rates. Household case-control, proportional mortality, and nested case-control methods permit quantification of risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: This study will reliably document not only the underlying cause of child and adult deaths but also key risk factors (behavioral, physical, environmental, and eventually, genetic). It offers a globally replicable model for reliably estimating cause-specific mortality using VA and strengthens India's flagship mortality monitoring system. Despite the misclassification that is still expected, the new cause-of-death data will be substantially better than that available previously.

Background &amp; objectives: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has raised urgent questions about containment and mitigation, particularly in countries where the virus has not yet established human-to-human transmission. The objectives of this study were to find out if it was possible to prevent, or delay, the local outbreaks of COVID-19 through restrictions on travel from abroad and if the virus has already established in-country transmission, to what extent would its impact be mitigated through quarantine of symptomatic patients? Methods: These questions were addressed in the context of India, using simple mathematical models of infectious disease transmission. While there remained important uncertainties in the natural history of COVID-19, using hypothetical epidemic curves, some key findings were illustrated that appeared insensitive to model assumptions, as well as highlighting critical data gaps. Results: It was assumed that symptomatic quarantine would identify and quarantine 50 per cent of symptomatic individuals within three days of developing symptoms. In an optimistic scenario of the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) being 1.5, and asymptomatic infections lacking any infectiousness, such measures would reduce the cumulative incidence by 62 per cent. In the pessimistic scenario of R 0 =4, and asymptomatic infections being half as infectious as symptomatic, this projected impact falls to two per cent. Interpretation &amp; conclusions: Port-of-entry-based entry screening of travellers with suggestive clinical features and from COVID-19-affected countries, would achieve modest delays in the introduction of the virus into the community. Acting alone, however, such measures would be insufficient to delay the outbreak by weeks or longer. Once the virus establishes transmission within the community, quarantine of symptomatics may have a meaningful impact on disease burden. Model projections are subject to substantial uncertainty and can be further refined as more is understood about the natural history of infection of this novel virus. As a public health measure, health system and community preparedness would be critical to control any impending spread of COVID-19 in the country.

Abstract High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries 1,2 . However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world 3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health 4,5 . However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.

As part of an international collaborative study on the impact of Traffic-Related Air Pollution on Childhood Asthma (TRAPCA), the health effects associated with long-term exposure to particles with a 50% cut-off aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 microm (PM2.5), PM2.5 absorbance, and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) were analysed. The German part of the TRAPCA study used data from subpopulations of two ongoing birth cohort studies (German Infant Nutrition Intervention Programme (GINI) and Influences of Lifestyle Related Factors on the Human Immune System and Development of Allergies in Children (LISA)) based in the city of Munich. Geographic information systems (GIS)-based exposure modelling was used to estimate traffic-related air pollutants at the birth addresses of 1,756 infants. Logistic regression was used to analyse possible health effects and potential confounding factors were adjusted for. The ranges in estimated exposures to PM2.5, PM2.5 absorbance, and NO2 were 11.9-21.9 microg m(-3), 1.38-4.39 x 10(-5) m(-1), and 19.5-66.9 microg x m3, respectively. Significant associations between these pollutants and cough without infection (odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval (CI)): 1.34 (1.11-1.61), 1.32 (1.10-1.59), and 1.40 (1.12-1.75), respectively) and dry cough at night (OR (95% CI): 1.31 (1.07-1.60), 1.27 (1.04-1.55), and 1.36 (1.07-1.74), respectively) in the first year of life were found. In the second year of life, these effects were attenuated. There was some indication of an association between traffic-related air pollution and symptoms of cough. Due to the very young age of the infants, it was too early to draw definitive conclusions from this for the development of asthma.

INTRODUCTION: Dengue is the most extensively spread mosquito-borne disease; endemic in more than 100 countries. Information about dengue disease burden, its prevalence, incidence and geographic distribution is critical in planning appropriate control measures against dengue fever. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of dengue fever in India. METHODS: We searched for studies published until 2017 reporting the incidence, the prevalence or case fatality of dengue in India. Our primary outcomes were (a) prevalence of laboratory confirmed dengue infection among clinically suspected patients, (b) seroprevalence in the general population and (c) case fatality ratio among laboratory confirmed dengue patients. We used binomial-normal mixed effects regression model to estimate the pooled proportion of dengue infections. Forest plots were used to display pooled estimates. The metafor package of R software was used to conduct meta-analysis. RESULTS: Of the 2285 identified articles on dengue, we included 233 in the analysis wherein 180 reported prevalence of laboratory confirmed dengue infection, seven reported seroprevalence as evidenced by IgG or neutralizing antibodies against dengue and 77 reported case fatality. The overall estimate of the prevalence of laboratory confirmed dengue infection among clinically suspected patients was 38.3% (95% CI: 34.8%-41.8%). The pooled estimate of dengue seroprevalence in the general population and CFR among laboratory confirmed patients was 56.9% (95% CI: 37.5-74.4) and 2.6% (95% CI: 2-3.4) respectively. There was significant heterogeneity in reported outcomes (p-values<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Identified gaps in the understanding of dengue epidemiology in India emphasize the need to initiate community-based cohort studies representing different geographic regions to generate reliable estimates of age-specific incidence of dengue and studies to generate dengue seroprevalence data in the country.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Population-based seroepidemiological studies measure the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a country. We report the findings of the first round of a national serosurvey, conducted to estimate the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection among adult population of India. METHODS: From May 11 to June 4, 2020, a randomly sampled, community-based survey was conducted in 700 villages/wards, selected from the 70 districts of the 21 States of India, categorized into four strata based on the incidence of reported COVID-19 cases. Four hundred adults per district were enrolled from 10 clusters with one adult per household. Serum samples were tested for IgG antibodies using COVID Kavach ELISA kit. All positive serum samples were re-tested using Euroimmun SARS-CoV-2 ELISA. Adjusting for survey design and serial test performance, weighted seroprevalence, number of infections, infection to case ratio (ICR) and infection fatality ratio (IFR) were calculated. Logistic regression was used to determine the factors associated with IgG positivity. RESULTS: Total of 30,283 households were visited and 28,000 individuals were enrolled. Population-weighted seroprevalence after adjusting for test performance was 0.73 per cent [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.34-1.13]. Males, living in urban slums and occupation with high risk of exposure to potentially infected persons were associated with seropositivity. A cumulative 6,468,388 adult infections (95% CI: 3,829,029-11,199,423) were estimated in India by the early May. The overall ICR was between 81.6 (95% CI: 48.3-141.4) and 130.1 (95% CI: 77.0-225.2) with May 11 and May 3, 2020 as plausible reference points for reported cases. The IFR in the surveyed districts from high stratum, where death reporting was more robust, was 11.72 (95% CI: 7.21-19.19) to 15.04 (9.26-24.62) per 10,000 adults, using May 24 and June 1, 2020 as plausible reference points for reported deaths. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS: Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was low among the adult population in India around the beginning of May 2020. Further national and local serosurveys are recommended to better inform the public health strategy for containment and mitigation of the epidemic in various parts of the country.

BACKGROUND: The first national severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) serosurvey in India, done in May-June, 2020, among adults aged 18 years or older from 21 states, found a SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody seroprevalence of 0·73% (95% CI 0·34-1·13). We aimed to assess the more recent nationwide seroprevalence in the general population in India. METHODS: We did a second household serosurvey among individuals aged 10 years or older in the same 700 villages or wards within 70 districts in India that were included in the first serosurvey. Individuals aged younger than 10 years and households that did not respond at the time of survey were excluded. Participants were interviewed to collect information on sociodemographics, symptoms suggestive of COVID-19, exposure history to laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, and history of COVID-19 illness. 3-5 mL of venous blood was collected from each participant and blood samples were tested using the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay. Seroprevalence was estimated after applying the sampling weights and adjusting for clustering and assay characteristics. We randomly selected one adult serum sample from each household to compare the seroprevalence among adults between the two serosurveys. FINDINGS: Between Aug 18 and Sept 20, 2020, we enrolled and collected serum samples from 29 082 individuals from 15 613 households. The weighted and adjusted seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in individuals aged 10 years or older was 6·6% (95% CI 5·8-7·4). Among 15 084 randomly selected adults (one per household), the weighted and adjusted seroprevalence was 7·1% (6·2-8·2). Seroprevalence was similar across age groups, sexes, and occupations. Seroprevalence was highest in urban slum areas followed by urban non-slum and rural areas. We estimated a cumulative 74·3 million infections in the country by Aug 18, 2020, with 26-32 infections for every reported COVID-19 case. INTERPRETATION: Approximately one in 15 individuals aged 10 years or older in India had SARS-CoV-2 infection by Aug 18, 2020. The adult seroprevalence increased approximately tenfold between May and August, 2020. Lower infection-to-case ratio in August than in May reflects a substantial increase in testing across the country. FUNDING: Indian Council of Medical Research.

BACKGROUND: Despite frailty being an important geriatric syndrome, its prevalence and associated mortality risk in older patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are unknown. METHODS: We examined the relationship between COPD confirmed by spirometry, COPD severity, and frailty defined by the Fried criteria within 2,142 participants (aged 74.7 ± 5.6 years) of the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort study. RESULTS: The frailty prevalence was significantly higher (p < .001) in participants with COPD (10.2%, 95% CI: 7.6%-13.5%) compared with participants without COPD (3.4%, 95% CI: 2.6%-4.4%). Adjusted for age, sex, smoking, corticosteroids, and other confounders, participants with COPD had a more than twofold increased prevalence of frailty (odds ratio 2.2, 95% CI: 1.34-3.54, p = .002). The prevalence was highest when severe airflow limitation, dyspnea, and frequent exacerbations were present. Participants with mild airflow limitation were more frequently prefrail. COPD elderly who were frail had significant worse survival. CONCLUSIONS: This population-based cohort study in elderly demonstrates that COPD is associated with frailty even after adjusting for shared risk factors. Our findings suggest that frailty-in addition to COPD severity and comorbidities-identifies those COPD participants at high risk of mortality.

Background: Vitamins B12 and folate participate in the one-carbon metabolism cycle and hence regulate fetal growth. Though vitamin B12 deficiency is widely prevalent, the current public health policy in India is to supplement only iron and folic acid for the prevention of anaemia. Prompted by our research findings of the importance of maternal vitamin B12 status for a healthy pregnancy, birth and offspring health outcomes, we evaluated available literature evidence using a systematic review approach, to inform policy. Methods: A systematic search was performed for relevant Indian studies in the MEDLINE/PubMed and IndMed databases. We selected studies reporting maternal vitamin B12 status (dietary intake or blood concentrations), and/or metabolic markers of vitamin B12 deficiency (homocysteine, methylmalonic acid) or haematological indices during pregnancy and their associations with outcomes of pregnancy, infancy or in later life. Intervention trials of vitamin B12 during pregnancy were also included. Quality of evidence was assessed on the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Results: Of the 635 articles identified, 46 studies met the inclusion criteria (cohort studies-26, case-control studies-13, RCT's -7). There is a high prevalence of vitamin B12 deficiency in Indian women during pregnancy (40-70%) (3 studies). Observational studies support associations (adjusted for potential sociodemographic confounders, maternal body size, postnatal factors) of lower maternal B12, higher homocysteine or an imbalance between vitamin B12-folate status with a higher risk of NTDs (6 studies), pregnancy complications (recurrent pregnancy losses, gestational diabetes, pre-eclampsia) (9 studies), lower birth weight (10 studies) and adverse longer-term health outcomes in the offspring (cognitive functions, adiposity, insulin resistance) (11 studies). Vitamin B12 supplementation (7 RCT's) in pregnancy showed a beneficial effect on offspring neurocognitive development and an effect on birth weight was inconclusive. There is a high quality evidence to support the role of low maternal vitamin B12 in higher risk for NTD and low birth weight and moderate-quality evidence for higher risk of gestational diabetes and later life adverse health outcomes (cognitive functions, risk for diabetes) in offspring. Conclusion: In the Indian population low maternal vitaminB12 status, is associated with adverse maternal and child health outcomes. The level of evidence supports adding vitamin B12 to existing nutritional programs in India for extended benefits on outcomes in pregnancy and offspring health besides control of anaemia. Systematic Review Registration: [website], identifier [registration number].

RATIONALE: Mechanisms contributing to chronic lung disease after preterm birth are incompletely understood. OBJECTIVES: To identify antenatal risk factors associated with increased risk for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) and respiratory disease during early childhood after preterm birth, we performed a prospective, longitudinal study of 587 preterm infants with gestational age less than 34 weeks and birth weights between 500 and 1,250 g. METHODS: Data collected included perinatal information and assessments during the neonatal intensive care unit admission and longitudinal follow-up by questionnaire until 2 years of age. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: After adjusting for covariates, we found that maternal smoking prior to preterm birth increased the odds of having an infant with BPD by twofold (P = 0.02). Maternal smoking was associated with prolonged mechanical ventilation and respiratory support during the neonatal intensive care unit admission. Preexisting hypertension was associated with a twofold (P = 0.04) increase in odds for BPD. Lower gestational age and birth weight z-scores were associated with BPD. Preterm infants who were exposed to maternal smoking had higher rates of late respiratory disease during childhood. Twenty-two percent of infants diagnosed with BPD and 34% of preterm infants without BPD had no clinical signs of late respiratory disease during early childhood. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that maternal smoking and hypertension increase the odds for developing BPD after preterm birth, and that maternal smoking is strongly associated with increased odds for late respiratory morbidities during early childhood. These findings suggest that in addition to the BPD diagnosis at 36 weeks, other factors modulate late respiratory outcomes during childhood. We speculate that measures to reduce maternal smoking not only will lower the risk for preterm birth but also will improve late respiratory morbidities after preterm birth.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To address gaps identified in earlier reviews, namely, the comparative influence of substance use on attempted suicide and completed suicide; the proximal role of substance use as a trigger of suicidal behaviour; the association between substances and suicidal behaviour; suicide and substance use disorders in youth; and the influence of combinations of risk factors, including psychiatric morbidity, on suicide. RECENT FINDINGS: The presence of an alcohol use disorder is confirmed as a distal risk factor for completed suicide, as well as attempted suicide. Alcohol use at the time of the suicide attempt is associated with low-risk methods. The use of other substances as a trigger of suicidal behaviour is highlighted in recent studies, but the circumstances leading to the suicidal act and the direct influence of substances in suicidal behaviour need to be explored further. Inhalant use and cocaine use are particularly associated with suicidal behaviour. Young people with multiple risk behaviours, such as substance use and risky sexual behaviours, are at high risk for suicidal behaviour. Psychiatric comorbidity with substance use escalates the risk for suicidal behaviour. Environmental interventions, such as reduction in the number of bars, may be helpful in reducing alcohol-related morbidity, including suicides. SUMMARY: Prevention strategies for reducing suicidal behaviour among substance users need to be prioritized at the individual and the national level through effective design, policy and implementation.

There has been an increased influx of probiotic products in the Indian market during the last decade. However, there has been no systematic approach for evaluation of probiotics in food to ensure their safety and efficacy. An initiative was, therefore, taken by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) along with the Department of Biotechnology (DBT) to formulate guidelines for regulation of probiotic products in the country. These guidelines define a set of parameters required for a product/strain to be termed as ‘probiotic’. These include identification of the strain, in vitro screening for probiotic characteristics, animal studies to establish safety and in vivo animal and human studies to establish efficacy. The guidelines also include requirements for labeling of the probiotic products with strain specification, viable numbers at the end of shelf life, storage conditions, etc., which would be helpful to the consumers to safeguard their own interest.

To evaluate the role of human papillomavirus (HPV) and other risk factors in the aetiology of invasive cervical carcinoma (ICC), we conducted a hospital-based case-control study in Chennai, Southern India. A total of 205 ICC cases (including 12 adenocarcinomas) and 213 frequency age-matched control women were included. HPV DNA in cervical cells was evaluated by means of a polymerase chain-reaction assay. Odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed by means of unconditional multiple logistic regression models. HPV infection was detected in all but one ICC cases and in 27.7% of control women (OR = 498). Twenty-three different HPV types were found. HPV 16 was the most common type in either cases or controls, followed by HPV 18 and 33. The association of ICC with HPV 18 and HPV 16-associated types was somewhat stronger than the one with HPV 16. Multiple HPV infections did not show a higher OR for ICC than single infections. Other than HPV infection, high parity (OR for >4 vs. </=2 births = 7.3), a woman's report of her husband's extramarital sexual relationships (OR = 10.0) and early menopause (OR for <45 vs. >/=45 years = 4.2) were significantly associated with ICC, also after restricting the analysis to HPV-positive cases and controls. Poor hygienic conditions were associated with an increased risk of HPV infection among control women but not with ICC risk among HPV-positive women. A vaccine against HPV 16 and 18 may be effective in more than three-quarters of ICC in the study area.