National Park Service

Abstract. Soils and other unconsolidated deposits in the northern circumpolar permafrost region store large amounts of soil organic carbon (SOC). This SOC is potentially vulnerable to remobilization following soil warming and permafrost thaw, but SOC stock estimates were poorly constrained and quantitative error estimates were lacking. This study presents revised estimates of permafrost SOC stocks, including quantitative uncertainty estimates, in the 0–3 m depth range in soils as well as for sediments deeper than 3 m in deltaic deposits of major rivers and in the Yedoma region of Siberia and Alaska. Revised estimates are based on significantly larger databases compared to previous studies. Despite this there is evidence of significant remaining regional data gaps. Estimates remain particularly poorly constrained for soils in the High Arctic region and physiographic regions with thin sedimentary overburden (mountains, highlands and plateaus) as well as for deposits below 3 m depth in deltas and the Yedoma region. While some components of the revised SOC stocks are similar in magnitude to those previously reported for this region, there are substantial differences in other components, including the fraction of perennially frozen SOC. Upscaled based on regional soil maps, estimated permafrost region SOC stocks are 217 ± 12 and 472 ± 27 Pg for the 0–0.3 and 0–1 m soil depths, respectively (±95% confidence intervals). Storage of SOC in 0–3 m of soils is estimated to 1035 ± 150 Pg. Of this, 34 ± 16 Pg C is stored in poorly developed soils of the High Arctic. Based on generalized calculations, storage of SOC below 3 m of surface soils in deltaic alluvium of major Arctic rivers is estimated as 91 ± 52 Pg. In the Yedoma region, estimated SOC stocks below 3 m depth are 181 ± 54 Pg, of which 74 ± 20 Pg is stored in intact Yedoma (late Pleistocene ice- and organic-rich silty sediments) with the remainder in refrozen thermokarst deposits. Total estimated SOC storage for the permafrost region is ∼1300 Pg with an uncertainty range of ∼1100 to 1500 Pg. Of this, ∼500 Pg is in non-permafrost soils, seasonally thawed in the active layer or in deeper taliks, while ∼800 Pg is perennially frozen. This represents a substantial ∼300 Pg lowering of the estimated perennially frozen SOC stock compared to previous estimates.

Artificial lights raise night sky luminance, creating the most visible effect of light pollution-artificial skyglow. Despite the increasing interest among scientists in fields such as ecology, astronomy, health care, and land-use planning, light pollution lacks a current quantification of its magnitude on a global scale. To overcome this, we present the world atlas of artificial sky luminance, computed with our light pollution propagation software using new high-resolution satellite data and new precision sky brightness measurements. This atlas shows that more than 80% of the world and more than 99% of the U.S. and European populations live under light-polluted skies. The Milky Way is hidden from more than one-third of humanity, including 60% of Europeans and nearly 80% of North Americans. Moreover, 23% of the world's land surfaces between 75°N and 60°S, 88% of Europe, and almost half of the United States experience light-polluted nights.

Invasive alien species (IAS) threaten human livelihoods and biodiversity globally. Increasing globalization facilitates IAS arrival, and environmental changes, including climate change, facilitate IAS establishment. Here we provide the first global, spatial analysis of the terrestrial threat from IAS in light of twenty-first century globalization and environmental change, and evaluate national capacities to prevent and manage species invasions. We find that one-sixth of the global land surface is highly vulnerable to invasion, including substantial areas in developing economies and biodiversity hotspots. The dominant invasion vectors differ between high-income countries (imports, particularly of plants and pets) and low-income countries (air travel). Uniting data on the causes of introduction and establishment can improve early-warning and eradication schemes. Most countries have limited capacity to act against invasions. In particular, we reveal a clear need for proactive invasion strategies in areas with high poverty levels, high biodiversity and low historical levels of invasion.

Strategic investments and coordination are needed for citizen science to reach its full potential.

Space and airborne sensors have been used to map area burned, assess characteristics of active fires, and characterize post-fire ecological effects. Confusion about fire intensity, fire severity, burn severity, and related terms can result in the potential misuse of the inferred information by land managers and remote sensing practitioners who require unambiguous remote sensing products for fire management. The objective of the present paper is to provide a comprehensive review of current and potential remote sensing methods used to assess fire behavior and effects and ecological responses to fire. We clarify the terminology to facilitate development and interpretation of comprehensible and defensible remote sensing products, present the potential and limitations of a variety of approaches for remotely measuring active fires and their post-fire ecological effects, and discuss challenges and future directions of fire-related remote sensing research.

Global increases in environmental noise levels - arising from expansion of human populations, transportation networks, and resource extraction - have catalysed a recent surge of research into the effects of noise on wildlife. Synthesising a coherent understanding of the biological consequences of noise from this literature is challenging. Taxonomic groups vary in auditory capabilities. A wide range of noise sources and exposure levels occur, and many kinds of biological responses have been observed, ranging from individual behaviours to changes in ecological communities. Also, noise is one of several environmental effects generated by human activities, so researchers must contend with potentially confounding explanations for biological responses. Nonetheless, it is clear that noise presents diverse threats to species and ecosystems and salient patterns are emerging to help inform future natural resource-management decisions. We conducted a systematic and standardised review of the scientific literature published from 1990 to 2013 on the effects of anthropogenic noise on wildlife, including both terrestrial and aquatic studies. Research to date has concentrated predominantly on European and North American species that rely on vocal communication, with approximately two-thirds of the data set focussing on songbirds and marine mammals. The majority of studies documented effects from noise, including altered vocal behaviour to mitigate masking, reduced abundance in noisy habitats, changes in vigilance and foraging behaviour, and impacts on individual fitness and the structure of ecological communities. This literature survey shows that terrestrial wildlife responses begin at noise levels of approximately 40 dBA, and 20% of papers documented impacts below 50 dBA. Our analysis highlights the utility of existing scientific information concerning the effects of anthropogenic noise on wildlife for predicting potential outcomes of noise exposure and implementing meaningful mitigation measures. Future research directions that would support more comprehensive predictions regarding the magnitude and severity of noise impacts include: broadening taxonomic and geographical scope, exploring interacting stressors, conducting larger-scale studies, testing mitigation approaches, standardising reporting of acoustic metrics, and assessing the biological response to noise-source removal or mitigation. The broad volume of existing information concerning the effects of anthropogenic noise on wildlife offers a valuable resource to assist scientists, industry, and natural-resource managers in predicting potential outcomes of noise exposure.

The varied effects of recent extreme weather events around the world exemplify the uneven impacts of climate change on populations, even within relatively small geographic regions. Differential human vulnerability to environmental hazards results from a range of social, economic, historical, and political factors, all of which operate at multiple scales. While adaptation to climate change has been the dominant focus of policy and research agendas, it is essential to ask as well why some communities and peoples are disproportionately exposed to and affected by climate threats. The cases and synthesis presented here are organized around four key themes (resource access, governance, culture, and knowledge), which we approach from four social science fields (cultural anthropology, archaeology, human geography, and sociology). Social scientific approaches to human vulnerability draw vital attention to the root causes of climate change threats and the reasons that people are forced to adapt to them. Because vulnerability is a multidimensional process rather than an unchanging state, a dynamic social approach to vulnerability is most likely to improve mitigation and adaptation planning efforts. This article is categorized under:Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Values-Based Approach to Vulnerability and Adaptation.

To meet collective obligations towards biodiversity conservation and monitoring, it is essential that the world's governments and non-governmental organisations as well as the research community tap all possible sources of data and information, including new, fast-growing sources such as citizen science (CS), in which volunteers participate in some or all aspects of environmental assessments. Through compilation of a database on CS and community-based monitoring (CBM, a subset of CS) programs, we assess where contributions from CS and CBM are significant and where opportunities for growth exist. We use the Essential Biodiversity Variable framework to describe the range of biodiversity data needed to track progress towards global biodiversity targets, and we assess strengths and gaps in geographical and taxonomic coverage. Our results show that existing CS and CBM data particularly provide large-scale data on species distribution and population abundance, species traits such as phenology, and ecosystem function variables such as primary and secondary productivity. Only birds, Lepidoptera and plants are monitored at scale. Most CS schemes are found in Europe, North America, South Africa, India, and Australia. We then explore what can be learned from successful CS/CBM programs that would facilitate the scaling up of current efforts, how existing strengths in data coverage can be better exploited, and the strategies that could maximise the synergies between CS/CBM and other approaches for monitoring biodiversity, in particular from remote sensing. More and better targeted funding will be needed, if CS/CBM programs are to contribute further to international biodiversity monitoring.

Phenology affects nearly all aspects of ecology and evolution. Virtually all biological phenomena-from individual physiology to interspecific relationships to global nutrient fluxes-have annual cycles and are influenced by the timing of abiotic events. Recent years have seen a surge of interest in this topic, as an increasing number of studies document phenological responses to climate change. Much recent research has addressed the genetic controls on phenology, modelling techniques and ecosystem-level and evolutionary consequences of phenological change. To date, however, these efforts have tended to proceed independently. Here, we bring together some of these disparate lines of inquiry to clarify vocabulary, facilitate comparisons among habitat types and promote the integration of ideas and methodologies across different disciplines and scales. We discuss the relationship between phenology and life history, the distinction between organismal- and population-level perspectives on phenology and the influence of phenology on evolutionary processes, communities and ecosystems. Future work should focus on linking ecological and physiological aspects of phenology, understanding the demographic effects of phenological change and explicitly accounting for seasonality and phenology in forecasts of ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change.

Recent climate‐change research largely confirms the impacts on US ecosystems identified in the 2009 National Climate Assessment and provides greater mechanistic understanding and geographic specificity for those impacts. Pervasive climate‐change impacts on ecosystems are those that affect productivity of ecosystems or their ability to process chemical elements. Loss of sea ice, rapid warming, and higher organic inputs affect marine and lake productivity, while combined impacts of wildfire and insect outbreaks decrease forest productivity, mostly in the arid and semi‐arid West. Forests in wetter regions are more productive owing to warming. Shifts in species ranges are so extensive that by 2100 they may alter biome composition across 5–20% of US land area. Accelerated losses of nutrients from terrestrial ecosystems to receiving waters are caused by both winter warming and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. Ecosystem feedbacks, especially those associated with release of carbon dioxide and methane release from wetlands and thawing permafrost soils, magnify the rate of climate change.

Invasive species, disease vectors, and pathogens affect biodiversity, ecosystem function and services, and human health. Climate change, land use, and transport vectors interact in complex ways to determine the spread of native and non-native invasive species, pathogens, and their effects on ecosystem dynamics. Early detection and in-depth understanding of invasive species and infectious diseases will require an integrated network of research platforms and information exchange to identify hotspots of invasion or disease emergence. Partnerships with state and federal agencies that monitor the spread and impacts of invasive species and pathogens will be critical in developing a national data and research network that can facilitate a full understanding of the resulting effects on ecosystems and society. Citizen science can also play a role; individuals can report new invasions, record phenological changes associated with invasions or disease outbreaks, and can participate in efforts such as the Breeding Bird Survey, which may reveal long-term biotic change following species invasions and disease spread. The ecological and societal impacts of invasive species and pathogens differ across gradients of climate and land use, and in the presence of global climate change may exacerbate both their propagation and impacts. Understanding the interactions of invasive species, disease vectors, and pathogens with other drivers of ecosystem change is critical to human health and economic well-being.

• Paleobotanists have long used models based on leaf size and shape to reconstruct paleoclimate. However, most models incorporate a single variable or use traits that are not physiologically or functionally linked to climate, limiting their predictive power. Further, they often underestimate paleotemperature relative to other proxies. • Here we quantify leaf-climate correlations from 92 globally distributed, climatically diverse sites, and explore potential confounding factors. Multiple linear regression models for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) are developed and applied to nine well-studied fossil floras. • We find that leaves in cold climates typically have larger, more numerous teeth, and are more highly dissected. Leaf habit (deciduous vs evergreen), local water availability, and phylogenetic history all affect these relationships. Leaves in wet climates are larger and have fewer, smaller teeth. Our multivariate MAT and MAP models offer moderate improvements in precision over univariate approaches (± 4.0 vs 4.8°C for MAT) and strong improvements in accuracy. For example, our provisional MAT estimates for most North American fossil floras are considerably warmer and in better agreement with independent paleoclimate evidence. • Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of additional leaf traits that are functionally linked to climate improves paleoclimate reconstructions. This work also illustrates the need for better understanding of the impact of phylogeny and leaf habit on leaf-climate relationships.

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is increasingly being chosen by researchers as a framework for gaining scientific insights from the quantitative analyses of data. New ideas and methods emerging from the study of causality, influences from the field of graphical modeling, and advances in statistics are expanding the rigor, capability, and even purpose of SEM. Guidelines for implementing the expanded capabilities of SEM are currently lacking. In this paper we describe new developments in SEM that we believe constitute a third‐generation of the methodology. Most characteristic of this new approach is the generalization of the structural equation model as a causal graph. In this generalization, analyses are based on graph theoretic principles rather than analyses of matrices. Also, new devices such as metamodels and causal diagrams, as well as an increased emphasis on queries and probabilistic reasoning, are now included. Estimation under a graph theory framework permits the use of Bayesian or likelihood methods. The guidelines presented start from a declaration of the goals of the analysis. We then discuss how theory frames the modeling process, requirements for causal interpretation, model specification choices, selection of estimation method, model evaluation options, and use of queries, both to summarize retrospective results and for prospective analyses. The illustrative example presented involves monitoring data from wetlands on Mount Desert Island, home of Acadia National Park. Our presentation walks through the decision process involved in developing and evaluating models, as well as drawing inferences from the resulting prediction equations. In addition to evaluating hypotheses about the connections between human activities and biotic responses, we illustrate how the structural equation (SE) model can be queried to understand how interventions might take advantage of an environmental threshold to limit Typha invasions. The guidelines presented provide for an updated definition of the SEM process that subsumes the historical matrix approach under a graph‐theory implementation. The implementation is also designed to permit complex specifications and to be compatible with various estimation methods. Finally, they are meant to foster the use of probabilistic reasoning in both retrospective and prospective considerations of the quantitative implications of the results.

Members of the public have for centuries recorded their observations of the natural world, including plant and animal distribution and phenology, water quality, weather data, and astronomical phenomena. Given the relatively recent growth of ecological research as a professional field of study, the historical contributions of amateurs to ecology can be easily overlooked. To better understand long‐term changes in ecosystems, researchers are now revisiting many of these historical datasets collected by non‐professionals. Over the past 100 years, scientific organizations have increasingly included volunteers in large‐scale monitoring projects to broaden the geographical extent and sample size of observations. We believe that a renewed interest in citizen science, enriched with the perspective and data provided by the long tradition of public participation in science, will broaden the engagement of the public in ecological research and lead to new scientific insights.

Roads present formidable barriers to dispersal. We examine movements of two highly mobile carnivores across the Ventura Freeway near Los Angeles, one of the busiest highways in the United States. The two species, bobcats and coyotes, can disappear from habitats isolated and fragmented by roads, and their ability to disperse across the Ventura Freeway tests the limits of vertebrates to overcome anthropogenic obstacles. We combine radio-telemetry data and genetically based assignments to identify individuals that have crossed the freeway. Although the freeway is a significant barrier to dispersal, we find that carnivores can cross the freeway and that 5-32% of sampled carnivores crossed over a 7-year period. However, despite moderate levels of migration, populations on either side of the freeway are genetically differentiated, and coalescent modelling shows their genetic isolation is consistent with a migration fraction less than 0.5% per generation. These results imply that individuals that cross the freeway rarely reproduce. Highways and development impose artificial home range boundaries on territorial and reproductive individuals and hence decrease genetically effective migration. Further, territory pile-up at freeway boundaries may decrease reproductive opportunities for dispersing individuals that do manage to cross. Consequently, freeways are filters favouring dispersing individuals that add to the migration rate but little to gene flow. Our results demonstrate that freeways can restrict gene flow even in wide-ranging species and suggest that for territorial animals, migration levels across anthropogenic barriers need to be an order of magnitude larger than commonly assumed to counteract genetic differentiation.

Population size is a fundamental biological parameter that is difficult to estimate. By genotyping coyote (Canis latrans) faeces systematically collected in the Santa Monica Mountains near Los Angeles, California, we exemplify a general, non-invasive method to census large mammals. Four steps are involved in the estimation. First, presumed coyote faeces are collected along paths or roadways where coyotes, like most carnivores, often defaecate and mark territorial boundaries. Second, DNA is extracted from the faeces and species identity and sex is determined by mitochondrial DNA and Y-chromosome typing. Third, hypervariable microsatellite loci are typed from the faeces. Lastly, rarefaction analysis is used to estimate population size from faecal genotypes. This method readily provides a point count estimate of population size and sex ratio. Additionally, we show that home range use paternity and kinship can be inferred from the distribution and relatedness patterns of faecal genotypes.

Stable isotope biochemistry (delta(13)C and delta(15)N) and radiocarbon dating of ancient human and animal bone document 2 distinct phases of plant and animal domestication at the Dadiwan site in northwest China. The first was brief and nonintensive: at various times between 7900 and 7200 calendar years before present (calBP) people harvested and stored enough broomcorn millet (Panicum miliaceum) to provision themselves and their hunting dogs (Canis sp.) throughout the year. The second, much more intensive phase was in place by 5900 calBP: during this time both broomcorn and foxtail (Setaria viridis spp. italica) millets were cultivated and made significant contributions to the diets of people, dogs, and pigs (Sus sp.). The systems represented in both phases developed elsewhere: the earlier, low-intensity domestic relationship emerged with hunter-gatherers in the arid north, while the more intensive, later one evolved further east and arrived at Dadiwan with the Yangshao Neolithic. The stable isotope methodology used here is probably the best means of detecting the symbiotic human-plant-animal linkages that develop during the very earliest phases of domestication and is thus applicable to the areas where these connections first emerged and are critical to explaining how and why agriculture began in East Asia.

Abstract The diverse fauna and flora of rocky intertidal ecosystems are being impacted by the activities of rapidly increasing coastal populations in many regions of the world. Human harvesting of intertidal species can lead to significant changes in body sizes of these taxa. However, little is known about the temporal trajectories of such size declines and more importantly, the long‐term effects of chronic human impacts. Furthermore, it is unclear whether sizes of species not directly targeted for harvesting are also declining through indirect effects. Here we use historical (extending back to 1869) and field survey data covering 200 km of mainland southern California coast to show that human activities have led to significant and widespread declines in body sizes of rocky intertidal gastropod species over the last century. These declines, initiated several decades ago, are continuing and contrary to expectation, they are not restricted to species harvested for human consumption. Data from the only national park in this area, where conservation laws are strictly imposed, demonstrate that negative ecological impacts can be ameliorated if existing laws are enforced.

Abstract. Data from both laboratory studies and atmospheric measurements are used to develop an empirical parameterization for the immersion freezing activity of natural mineral dust particles. Measurements made with the Colorado State University (CSU) continuous flow diffusion chamber (CFDC) when processing mineral dust aerosols at a nominal 105% relative humidity with respect to water (RHw) are taken as a measure of the immersion freezing nucleation activity of particles. Ice active frozen fractions vs. temperature for dusts representative of Saharan and Asian desert sources were consistent with similar measurements in atmospheric dust plumes for a limited set of comparisons available. The parameterization developed follows the form of one suggested previously for atmospheric particles of non-specific composition in quantifying ice nucleating particle concentrations as functions of temperature and the total number concentration of particles larger than 0.5 μm diameter. Such an approach does not explicitly account for surface area and time dependencies for ice nucleation, but sufficiently encapsulates the activation properties for potential use in regional and global modeling simulations, and possible application in developing remote sensing retrievals for ice nucleating particles. A calibration factor is introduced to account for the apparent underestimate (by approximately 3, on average) of the immersion freezing fraction of mineral dust particles for CSU CFDC data processed at an RHw of 105% vs. maximum fractions active at higher RHw. Instrumental factors that affect activation behavior vs. RHw in CFDC instruments remain to be fully explored in future studies. Nevertheless, the use of this calibration factor is supported by comparison to ice activation data obtained for the same aerosols from Aerosol Interactions and Dynamics of the Atmosphere (AIDA) expansion chamber cloud parcel experiments. Further comparison of the new parameterization, including calibration correction, to predictions of the immersion freezing surface active site density parameterization for mineral dust particles, developed separately from AIDA experimental data alone, shows excellent agreement for data collected in a descent through a Saharan aerosol layer. These studies support the utility of laboratory measurements to obtain atmospherically relevant data on the ice nucleation properties of dust and other particle types, and suggest the suitability of considering all mineral dust as a single type of ice nucleating particle as a useful first-order approximation in numerical modeling investigations.

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.