NHS Grampian

The clinical and complete pathological response of a primary breast cancer to chemotherapy has been shown to be an important prognostic for survival. However, the majority of patients do not experience a complete pathological response to primary chemotherapy and the significance of lesser degrees of histological response is uncertain and the prognostic significance is unknown. The purpose of this study was to evaluate a new histological grading system to assess response of breast cancers to primary chemotherapy and to determine if such a system has prognostic value.A consecutive series of 176 patients with large (> or =4cm) and locally advanced breast cancers were treated with multimodality therapy comprising primary chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy and tamoxifen. All underwent assessment of the primary breast tumour before and after completion of chemotherapy. Residual tumour was excised after completion of chemotherapy (mastectomy or wide local excision with axillary surgery). The removed tissue was assessed and response to chemotherapy graded using a five-point histological grading system based with the fundamental feature being a reduction in tumour cellularity; comparison being made with a pre-treatment core biopsy. All patients were followed up for 5 years or more. Pathological responses were compared to 5 year overall survival and disease-free survival using log rank tests. The overall 5-year survival for all patients was 71%, and 5 year disease free interval was 60%. There was a significant correlation between pathological response using this new grading system and both overall survival (P=0.02) and disease-free interval (P=0.04). In a multivariate analysis of known prognostic factors, the Miller/Payne grading system was an independent predictor of overall patient survival. This grading system, which assesses the histological response to primary chemotherapy, can predict overall survival and disease-free interval in patients with large and locally advanced breast cancers treated with such therapy. The relationship of degree of histological response to overall and disease-free survival has been shown in univariate and multivariate analyses and could potentially have an important role in the clinical management of patients with locally advanced breast cancer undergoing primary chemotherapy.

IMPORTANCE: The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. RESULTS: The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.

Background: Multimorbidity, the coexistence of multiple health conditions, is a growing public health challenge. Research and intervention development are hampered by the lack of consensus regarding defining and measuring multimorbidity. The aim of this systematic review was to pool the findings of systematic reviews examining definitions and measures of multimorbidity. Methods: Medline, Embase, PubMed and Cochrane were searched from database inception to February 2017. Two authors independently screened titles, abstracts and full texts and extracted data from the included papers. Disagreements were resolved with a third author. Reviews were quality assessed. Results: Of six reviews, two focussed on definitions and four on measures. Multimorbidity was commonly defined as the presence of multiple diseases or conditions, often with a cut-off of two or more. One review developed a holistic definition including biopsychosocial and somatic factors as well as disease. Reviews recommended using measures validated for the outcome of interest. Disease counts are an alternative if no validated measure exists. Conclusions: To enable comparison between studies and settings, researchers and practitioners should be explicit about their choice of definition and measure. Using a cut-off of two or more conditions as part of the definition is widely adopted. Measure selection should be based on tools validated for the outcome being considered. Where there is no validated measure, or where multiple outcomes or populations are being considered, disease counts are appropriate.

Epidemiological studies of acute kidney injury (AKI) and acute-on-chronic renal failure (ACRF) are surprisingly sparse and confounded by differences in definition. Reported incidences vary, with few studies being population-based. Given this and our aging population, the incidence of AKI may be much higher than currently thought. We tested the hypothesis that the incidence is higher by including all patients with AKI (in a geographical population base of 523,390) regardless of whether they required renal replacement therapy irrespective of the hospital setting in which they were treated. We also tested the hypothesis that the Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, and End-Stage Kidney (RIFLE) classification predicts outcomes. We identified all patients with serum creatinine concentrations > or =150 micromol/L (male) or > or =130 micromol/L (female) over a 6-mo period in 2003. Clinical outcomes were obtained from each patient's case records. The incidences of AKI and ACRF were 1811 and 336 per million population, respectively. Median age was 76 yr for AKI and 80.5 yr for ACRF. Sepsis was a precipitating factor in 47% of patients. The RIFLE classification was useful for predicting full recovery of renal function (P < 0.001), renal replacement therapy requirement (P < 0.001), length of hospital stay [excluding those who died during admission (P < 0.001)], and in-hospital mortality (P = 0.035). RIFLE did not predict mortality at 90 d or 6 mo. Thus the incidence of AKI is much higher than previously thought, with implications for service planning and providing information to colleagues about methods to prevent deterioration of renal function. The RIFLE classification is useful for identifying patients at greatest risk of adverse short-term outcomes.

A complete understanding of how exposure to environmental substances promotes cancer formation is lacking. More than 70 years ago, tumorigenesis was proposed to occur in a two-step process: an initiating step that induces mutations in healthy cells, followed by a promoter step that triggers cancer development1. Here we propose that environmental particulate matter measuring ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5), known to be associated with lung cancer risk, promotes lung cancer by acting on cells that harbour pre-existing oncogenic mutations in healthy lung tissue. Focusing on EGFR-driven lung cancer, which is more common in never-smokers or light smokers, we found a significant association between PM2.5 levels and the incidence of lung cancer for 32,957 EGFR-driven lung cancer cases in four within-country cohorts. Functional mouse models revealed that air pollutants cause an influx of macrophages into the lung and release of interleukin-1β. This process results in a progenitor-like cell state within EGFR mutant lung alveolar type II epithelial cells that fuels tumorigenesis. Ultradeep mutational profiling of histologically normal lung tissue from 295 individuals across 3 clinical cohorts revealed oncogenic EGFR and KRAS driver mutations in 18% and 53% of healthy tissue samples, respectively. These findings collectively support a tumour-promoting role for PM2.5 air pollutants and provide impetus for public health policy initiatives to address air pollution to reduce disease burden. Combination of epidemiology, preclinical models and ultradeep DNA profiling of clinical cohorts unpicks the inflammatory mechanism by which air pollution promotes lung cancer

STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective radiologic study on a prospective patient cohort. OBJECTIVE: To devise a qualitative grading of lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS), study its reliability and clinical relevance. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Radiologic stenosis is assessed commonly by measuring dural sac cross-sectional area (DSCA). Great variation is observed though in surfaces recorded between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. METHODS: We describe a 7-grade classification based on the morphology of the dural sac as observed on T2 axial magnetic resonance images based on the rootlet/cerebrospinal fluid ratio. Grades A and B show cerebrospinal fluid presence while grades C and D show none at all. The grading was applied to magnetic resonance images of 95 subjects divided in 3 groups as follows: 37 symptomatic LSS surgically treated patients; 31 symptomatic LSS conservatively treated patients (average follow-up, 2.5 and 3.1 years); and 27 low back pain (LBP) sufferers. DSCA was also digitally measured. We studied intra- and interobserver reliability, distribution of grades, relation between morphologic grading and DSCA, as well relation between grades, DSCA, and Oswestry Disability Index. RESULTS: Average intra- and interobserver agreement was substantial and moderate, respectively (k = 0.65 and 0.44), whereas they were substantial for physicians working in the study originating unit. Surgical patients had the smallest DSCA. A larger proportion of C and D grades was observed in the surgical group. Surface measurements resulted in overdiagnosis of stenosis in 35 patients and under diagnosis in 12. No relation could be found between stenosis grade or DSCA and baseline Oswestry Disability Index or surgical result. C and D grade patients were more likely to fail conservative treatment, whereas grades A and B were less likely to warrant surgery. CONCLUSION: The grading defines stenosis in different subjects than surface measurements alone. Since it mainly considers impingement of neural tissue it might be a more appropriate clinical and research tool as well as carrying a prognostic value.

IMPORTANCE: Identifying patients at risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression may facilitate more optimal nephrology care. Kidney failure risk equations, including such factors as age, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and calcium and phosphate concentrations, were previously developed and validated in 2 Canadian cohorts. Validation in other regions and in CKD populations not under the care of a nephrologist is needed. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accuracy of the risk equations across different geographic regions and patient populations through individual participant data meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Thirty-one cohorts, including 721,357 participants with CKD stages 3 to 5 in more than 30 countries spanning 4 continents, were studied. These cohorts collected data from 1982 through 2014. STUDY SELECTION: Cohorts participating in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with data on end-stage renal disease. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Data were obtained and statistical analyses were performed between July 2012 and June 2015. Using the risk factors from the original risk equations, cohort-specific hazard ratios were estimated and combined using random-effects meta-analysis to form new pooled kidney failure risk equations. Original and pooled kidney failure risk equation performance was compared, and the need for regional calibration factors was assessed. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Kidney failure (treatment by dialysis or kidney transplant). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4 years of 721,357 participants with CKD, 23,829 cases kidney failure were observed. The original risk equations achieved excellent discrimination (ability to differentiate those who developed kidney failure from those who did not) across all cohorts (overall C statistic, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.89-0.92 at 2 years; C statistic at 5 years, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.90); discrimination in subgroups by age, race, and diabetes status was similar. There was no improvement with the pooled equations. Calibration (the difference between observed and predicted risk) was adequate in North American cohorts, but the original risk equations overestimated risk in some non-North American cohorts. Addition of a calibration factor that lowered the baseline risk by 32.9% at 2 years and 16.5% at 5 years improved the calibration in 12 of 15 and 10 of 13 non-North American cohorts at 2 and 5 years, respectively (P = .04 and P = .02). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Kidney failure risk equations developed in a Canadian population showed high discrimination and adequate calibration when validated in 31 multinational cohorts. However, in some regions the addition of a calibration factor may be necessary.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented strain on health-care systems. Frailty is being used in clinical decision making for patients with COVID-19, yet the prevalence and effect of frailty in people with COVID-19 is not known. In the COVID-19 in Older PEople (COPE) study we aimed to establish the prevalence of frailty in patients with COVID-19 who were admitted to hospital and investigate its association with mortality and duration of hospital stay. METHODS: This was an observational cohort study conducted at ten hospitals in the UK and one in Italy. All adults (≥18 years) admitted to participating hospitals with COVID-19 were included. Patients with incomplete hospital records were excluded. The study analysed routinely generated hospital data for patients with COVID-19. Frailty was assessed by specialist COVID-19 teams using the clinical frailty scale (CFS) and patients were grouped according to their score (1-2=fit; 3-4=vulnerable, but not frail; 5-6=initial signs of frailty but with some degree of independence; and 7-9=severe or very severe frailty). The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality (time from hospital admission to mortality and day-7 mortality). FINDINGS: Between Feb 27, and April 28, 2020, we enrolled 1564 patients with COVID-19. The median age was 74 years (IQR 61-83); 903 (57·7%) were men and 661 (42·3%) were women; 425 (27·2%) had died at data cutoff (April 28, 2020). 772 (49·4%) were classed as frail (CFS 5-8) and 27 (1·7%) were classed as terminally ill (CFS 9). Compared with CFS 1-2, the adjusted hazard ratios for time from hospital admission to death were 1·55 (95% CI 1·00-2·41) for CFS 3-4, 1·83 (1·15-2·91) for CFS 5-6, and 2·39 (1·50-3·81) for CFS 7-9, and adjusted odds ratios for day-7 mortality were 1·22 (95% CI 0·63-2·38) for CFS 3-4, 1·62 (0·81-3·26) for CFS 5-6, and 3·12 (1·56-6·24) for CFS 7-9. INTERPRETATION: In a large population of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, disease outcomes were better predicted by frailty than either age or comorbidity. Our results support the use of CFS to inform decision making about medical care in adult patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. FUNDING: None.

Background: Society has to cope with a large burden of health issues. There is need to find solutions to prevent diseases and help individuals live healthier lifestyles. Individual needs and circumstances vary greatly and one size fit all solutions do not tend to work well. More tailored solutions centred on individuals’ needs and circumstances can be developed in collaboration with these individuals. This process, known as co-creation, has shown promise but it requires guiding principles to improve its effectiveness. The aim of this study was to identify a key set of principles and recommendations for co-creating public health interventions. Methods: These principles were collaboratively developed through analysing a set of case studies targeting different health behaviours (such as reducing sitting and improving strength and balance) in different groups of people (such as adolescent schoolgirls and older adults living in the community). Results: The key principles of co-creation are presented in four stages: Planning (what is the purpose of the co-creation; and who should be involved?); Conducting (what activities can be used during co-creation; and how to ensure buy-in and commitment?); Evaluating (how do we know the process and the outcome are valid and effective?) and Reporting (how to report the findings?). Three models are proposed to show how co-created solutions can be scaled up to a population level. Conclusions: These recommendations aim to help the co-creation of public health interventions by providing a framework and governance to guide the process. Background: Due to the chronic disease burden on society, there is a need for preventive public health interventions to stimulate society towards a healthier lifestyle. To deal with the complex variability between individual lifestyles and settings, collaborating with end-users to develop interventions tailored to their unique circumstances has been suggested as a potential way to improve effectiveness and adherence. Co-creation of public health interventions using participatory methodologies has shown promise but lacks a framework to make this process systematic. The aim of this paper was to identify and set key principles and recommendations for systematically applying participatory methodologies to co-create and evaluate public health interventions. Methods: These principles and recommendations were derived using an iterative reflection process, combining key learning from published literature in addition to critical reflection on three case studies conducted by research groups in three European institutions, all of whom have expertise in co-creating public health interventions using different participatory methodologies. Results: Key principles and recommendations for using participatory methodologies in public health intervention co-creation are presented for the stages of: Planning (framing the aim of the study and identifying the appropriate sampling strategy); Conducting (defining the procedure, in addition to manifesting ownership); Evaluating (the process and the effectiveness) and Reporting (providing guidelines to report the findings). Three scaling models are proposed to demonstrate how to scale locally developed interventions to a population level. Conclusions: These recommendations aim to facilitate public health intervention co-creation and evaluation utilising participatory methodologies by ensuring the process is systematic and reproducible.

IMPORTANCE: Type 1 diabetes has historically been associated with a significant reduction in life expectancy. Major advances in treatment of type 1 diabetes have occurred in the past 3 decades. Contemporary estimates of the effect of type 1 diabetes on life expectancy are needed. OBJECTIVE: To examine current life expectancy in people with and without type 1 diabetes in Scotland. We also examined whether any loss of life expectancy in patients with type 1 diabetes is confined to those who develop kidney disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective cohort of all individuals alive in Scotland with type 1 diabetes who were aged 20 years or older from 2008 through 2010 and were in a nationwide register (n=24,691 contributing 67,712 person-years and 1043 deaths). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Differences in life expectancy between those with and those without type 1 diabetes and the percentage of the difference due to various causes. RESULTS: Life expectancy at an attained age of 20 years was an additional 46.2 years among men with type 1 diabetes and 57.3 years among men without it, an estimated loss in life expectancy with diabetes of 11.1 years (95% CI, 10.1-12.1). Life expectancy from age 20 years was an additional 48.1 years among women with type 1 diabetes and 61.0 years among women without it, an estimated loss with diabetes of 12.9 years (95% CI, 11.7-14.1). Even among those with type 1 diabetes with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2 or higher, life expectancy was reduced (49.0 years in men, 53.1 years in women) giving an estimated loss from age 20 years of 8.3 years (95% CI, 6.5-10.1) for men and 7.9 years (95% CI, 5.5-10.3) for women. Overall, the largest percentage of the estimated loss in life expectancy was related to ischemic heart disease (36% in men, 31% in women) but death from diabetic coma or ketoacidosis was associated with the largest percentage of the estimated loss occurring before age 50 years (29.4% in men, 21.7% in women). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Estimated life expectancy for patients with type 1 diabetes in Scotland based on data from 2008 through 2010 indicated an estimated loss of life expectancy at age 20 years of approximately 11 years for men and 13 years for women compared with the general population without type 1 diabetes.

1 Stopping any breastfeeding at last study assessment up to 6 months. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Analysis 4.2. Comparison 4 All forms of support versus usual care: SUBGROUP ANALYSIS -timing of support, Outcome 2 Stopping exclusive breastfeeding by last assessment up to 6 months. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Analysis 4.3. Comparison 4 All forms of support versus usual care: SUBGROUP ANALYSIS -timing of support, Outcome 3 Stopping any breastfeeding at 4-6 weeks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Lung infections with Mycobacterium abscessus, a species of multidrug-resistant nontuberculous mycobacteria, are emerging as an important global threat to individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF), in whom M. abscessus accelerates inflammatory lung damage, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Previously, M. abscessus was thought to be independently acquired by susceptible individuals from the environment. However, using whole-genome analysis of a global collection of clinical isolates, we show that the majority of M. abscessus infections are acquired through transmission, potentially via fomites and aerosols, of recently emerged dominant circulating clones that have spread globally. We demonstrate that these clones are associated with worse clinical outcomes, show increased virulence in cell-based and mouse infection models, and thus represent an urgent international infection challenge.

BACKGROUND: Initial observational studies and a systematic review published 5 years ago have suggested that obstetric and perinatal outcomes are better in offspring conceived following frozen rather than fresh embryo transfers, with reduced risks of preterm birth, small for gestational age, low birth weight and pre-eclampsia. More recent primary studies are beginning to challenge some of these findings. We therefore conducted an updated systematic review and cumulative meta-analysis to examine if these results have remained consistent over time. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: The aim of this study was to perform a systematic review and cumulative meta-analysis (trend with time) of obstetric and perinatal complications in singleton pregnancies following the transfer of frozen thawed and fresh embryos generated through in-vitro fertilisation. SEARCH METHODS: Data Sources from Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Clinical Trials DARE and CINAHL (1984-2016) were searched using appropriate key words. Observational and randomised studies comparing obstetric and perinatal outcomes in singleton pregnancies conceived through IVF using either fresh or frozen thawed embryos. Two independent reviewers extracted data in 2 × 2 tables and assessed the methodological quality of the relevant studies using CASP scoring. Both aggregated as well as cumulative meta-analysis was done using STATA. OUTCOMES: Twenty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. Singleton babies conceived from frozen thawed embryos were at lower relative risk (RR) of preterm delivery (0.90; 95% CI 0.84-0.97) low birth weight (0.72; 95% CI 0.67-0.77) and small for gestational age (0.61; 95% CI 0.56-0.67) compared to those conceived from fresh embryo transfers, but faced an increased risk (RR) of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (1.29; 95% CI 1.07-1.56) large for gestational age (1.54; 95% CI 1.48-1.61) and high birth weight (1.85; 95% CI 1.46-2.33). There was no difference in the risk of congenital anomalies and perinatal mortality between the two groups. The direction and magnitude of effect for these outcomes have remained virtually unchanged over time while the degree of precision has improved with the addition of data from newer studies. WIDER IMPLICATIONS: The results of this cumulative meta-analysis confirm that the decreased risks of small for gestational age, low birth weight and preterm delivery and increased risks of large for gestational age and high birth weight associated with pregnancies conceived from frozen embryos have been consistent in terms of direction and magnitude of effect over several years, with increasing precision around the point estimates. Replication in a number of different populations has provided external validity for the results, for outcomes of birth weight and preterm delivery. Meanwhile, caution should be exercised about embarking on a policy of electively freezing all embryos in IVF as there are increased risks for large for gestational age babies and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Therefore, elective freezing should ideally be undertaken in specific cases such as ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome, fertility preservation or in the context of randomised trials.

A joint initiative by the British Thoracic Society and the Society for Cardiothoracic Surgery in Great Britain and Ireland was undertaken to update the 2001 guidelines for the selection and assessment of patients with lung cancer who can potentially be managed by radical treatment.

PURPOSE: To compare the efficacy of neoadjuvant (NA) docetaxel (DOC) with anthracycline-based therapy and determine the efficacy of NA DOC in patients with breast cancer initially failing to respond to anthracycline-based NA chemotherapy (CT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with large or locally advanced breast cancer received four pulses of cyclophosphamide 1,000 mg/m 2 , doxorubicin 50 mg/m 2 , vincristine 1.5 mg/m 2 , and prednisolone 40 mg (4 × CVAP) for 5 days. Clinical tumor response was assessed. Those who responded (complete response [CR] or partial response [PR]) were randomized to receive further 4 × CVAP or 4 × DOC (100 mg/m 2 ). All nonresponders received 4 × DOC. RESULTS: One hundred sixty-two patients were enrolled; 145 patients completed eight cycles of NA CT. One hundred two patients (66%) achieved a clinical response (PR or CR) after 4 × CVAP. After randomization, 50 patients received 4 × CVAP and 47 patients received 4 × DOC. In patients who received eight cycles of CT, the clinical CR (cCR) and clinical PR (cPR) (94% v 66%) and pathologic CR (pCR) (34% v 16%) response rates were higher (P = .001 and P = .04) in those who received further DOC. Intention-to-treat analysis demonstrated cCR and cPR (85% v 64%; P = .03) and pCR (31% v 15%; P = .06). Axillary lymph node examination revealed residual tumor in 33% of patients who received 8 × CVAP and 38% of patients who received further DOC. In patients who failed to respond to the initial CVAP, 4 × DOC resulted in a cCR and cPR rate of 55% and a pCR rate of 2%. Forty-four percent of these patients had residual tumor within axillary lymph nodes. CONCLUSION: NA DOC resulted in substantial improvement in responses to DOC.

AIMS: To assess mortality in patients with diabetes incident under the age of 30 years. METHODS: A cohort of 23 752 diabetic patients diagnosed under the age of 30 years from throughout the United Kingdom was identified during 1972-93 and followed up to February 1997. Following notification of deaths during this period, age- and sex-specific mortality rates, attributable risks and standardized mortality rates were calculated. RESULTS: The 23 752 patients contributed a total of 317 522 person-years of follow-up, an average of 13.4 years per subject. During follow-up 949 deaths occurred in patients between the ages of 1 and 84 years, 566 in males and 383 in females. All-cause mortality rates in the patients with diabetes exceeded those in the general population at all ages and within the cohort were higher for males than females at all ages except between 5 and 15 years. The relative risk of death (standardized mortality ratio, SMR), was higher for females than males at all ages, being 4.0 (95% CI 3.6-4.4) for females and 2.7 (2.5-2.9) for males overall, but reaching a peak of 5.7 (4.7-7.0) in females aged 20-29, and of 4.0 (3.1-5.0) in males aged 40-49. Attributable risks, or the excess deaths in persons with diabetes compared with the general population, increased with age in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study from the UK of young patients diagnosed with diabetes that is large enough to calculate detailed age-specific mortality rates. This study provides a baseline for further studies of mortality and change in mortality within the United Kingdom.

PURPOSE: To determine whether [ 18 F]-fluorodeoxy-d-glucose ([ 18 F]-FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) can predict the pathologic response of primary and metastatic breast cancer to chemotherapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Thirty patients with noninflammatory, large (&gt; 3 cm), or locally advanced breast cancers received eight doses of primary chemotherapy. Dynamic PET imaging was performed immediately before the first, second, and fifth doses and after the last dose of treatment. Primary tumors and involved axillary lymph nodes were identified, and the [ 18 F]-FDG uptake values were calculated (expressed as semiquantitative dose uptake ratio [DUR] and influx constant [K]). Pathologic response was determined after chemotherapy by evaluation of surgical resection specimens. RESULTS: Thirty-one primary breast lesions were identified. The mean pretreatment DUR values of the eight lesions that achieved a complete microscopic pathologic response were significantly (P = .037) higher than those from less responsive lesions. The mean reduction in DUR after the first pulse of chemotherapy was significantly greater in lesions that achieved a partial (P = .013), complete macroscopic (P = .003), or complete microscopic (P = .001) pathologic response. PET after a single pulse of chemotherapy was able to predict complete pathologic response with a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 74%. Eleven patients had pathologic evidence of lymph node metastases. Mean pretreatment DUR values in the metastatic lesions that responded did not differ significantly from those that failed to respond (P = .076). However, mean pretreatment K values were significantly higher in ultimately responsive cancers (P = .037). The mean change in DUR and K after the first pulse of chemotherapy was significantly greater in responding lesions (DUR, P = .038; K, P = .012). CONCLUSION: [ 18 F]-FDG PET imaging of primary and metastatic breast cancer after a single pulse of chemotherapy may be of value in the prediction of pathologic treatment response.

BRCA1-associated breast and ovarian cancer risks can be modified by common genetic variants. To identify further cancer risk-modifying loci, we performed a multi-stage GWAS of 11,705 BRCA1 carriers (of whom 5,920 were diagnosed with breast and 1,839 were diagnosed with ovarian cancer), with a further replication in an additional sample of 2,646 BRCA1 carriers. We identified a novel breast cancer risk modifier locus at 1q32 for BRCA1 carriers (rs2290854, P = 2.7 × 10(-8), HR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.09-1.20). In addition, we identified two novel ovarian cancer risk modifier loci: 17q21.31 (rs17631303, P = 1.4 × 10(-8), HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38) and 4q32.3 (rs4691139, P = 3.4 × 10(-8), HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.17-1.38). The 4q32.3 locus was not associated with ovarian cancer risk in the general population or BRCA2 carriers, suggesting a BRCA1-specific association. The 17q21.31 locus was also associated with ovarian cancer risk in 8,211 BRCA2 carriers (P = 2×10(-4)). These loci may lead to an improved understanding of the etiology of breast and ovarian tumors in BRCA1 carriers. Based on the joint distribution of the known BRCA1 breast cancer risk-modifying loci, we estimated that the breast cancer lifetime risks for the 5% of BRCA1 carriers at lowest risk are 28%-50% compared to 81%-100% for the 5% at highest risk. Similarly, based on the known ovarian cancer risk-modifying loci, the 5% of BRCA1 carriers at lowest risk have an estimated lifetime risk of developing ovarian cancer of 28% or lower, whereas the 5% at highest risk will have a risk of 63% or higher. Such differences in risk may have important implications for risk prediction and clinical management for BRCA1 carriers.

Little is known about the course of chronic pain in the community. Such information is needed for the prevention and management of chronic pain. We undertook a 4-year follow-up study of 2184 individuals living in Grampian, UK to describe patterns and predictors of change in chronic pain over time. In October 2000, participants completed a postal questionnaire including case definition questions, the chronic pain grade questionnaire, the SF-36 and socio-demographic questions. Information from this questionnaire was compared to information collected from a similar questionnaire in 1996. A response rate of 83% was achieved for the follow-up study. The overall prevalence of chronic pain (pain or discomfort present either all the time or on and off for 3 months or longer) increased from 45.5% at baseline to 53.8% at follow-up. Seventy-nine percent of those with chronic pain at baseline still had it at follow-up. The average annual incidence was 8.3% and the average annual recovery rate was 5.4%. Individuals in the study samples who are in lowest quartile of SF-36 domains--physical functioning, social functioning and bodily pain at baseline--were more likely to develop chronic pain at follow-up, and respondents who were retired were less likely to develop chronic pain. Individuals in the study samples in the lowest quartile of SF-36 domains, bodily pain and general health at baseline, were less likely to recover from their chronic pain, as were those aged 45-74 compared with those aged 25-34. We concluded that chronic pain is a common, persistent problem in the community with relatively high incidence and low recovery rates. The lack of association between onset or recovery from chronic pain and most traditional socio-demographic factors, highlights the need to broaden the range of factors included in studies of chronic pain aetiology.

BACKGROUND: It is possible that oestrogen deficiency may be an aetiological factor in the development of urinary incontinence in women. This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2003 and subsequently updated in 2009. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of local and systemic oestrogens used for the treatment of urinary incontinence. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Incontinence Group Specialised Register of trials (searched 21 June 2012) which includes searches of MEDLINE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and handsearching of journals and conference proceedings, and the reference lists of relevant articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials that included oestrogens in at least one arm in women with symptomatic or urodynamic diagnoses of stress, urgency or mixed urinary incontinence or other urinary symptoms post-menopause. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Trials were evaluated for risk of bias and appropriateness for inclusion by the review authors. Data were extracted by at least two authors and cross checked. Subgroup analyses were performed by grouping participants under local or systemic administration. Where appropriate, meta-analysis was undertaken. MAIN RESULTS: Thirty-four trials were identified which included approximately 19,676 incontinent women of whom 9599 received oestrogen therapy (1464 involved in trials of local vaginal oestrogen administration). Sample sizes of the studies ranged from 16 to 16,117 women. The trials used varying combinations of type of oestrogen, dose, duration of treatment and length of follow up. Outcome data were not reported consistently and were available for only a minority of outcomes.The combined result of six trials of systemic administration (of oral systemic oestrogens) resulted in worse incontinence than on placebo (risk ratio (RR) 1.32, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.48). This result was heavily weighted by a subgroup of women from the Hendrix trial, which had large numbers of participants and a longer follow up of one year. All of the women had had a hysterectomy and the treatment used was conjugated equine oestrogen. The result for women with an intact uterus where oestrogen and progestogen were combined also showed a statistically significant worsening of incontinence (RR 1.11, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.18).There was some evidence that oestrogens used locally (for example vaginal creams or pessaries) may improve incontinence (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.86). Overall, there were around one to two fewer voids in 24 hours amongst women treated with local oestrogen, and there was less frequency and urgency. No serious adverse events were reported although some women experienced vaginal spotting, breast tenderness or nausea.Women who were continent and received systemic oestrogen replacement, with or without progestogens, for reasons other than urinary incontinence were more likely to report the development of new urinary incontinence in one large study.One small trial showed that women were more likely to have an improvement in incontinence after pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) than with local oestrogen therapy (RR 2.30, 95% CI 1.50 to 3.52).The data were too few to address questions about oestrogens compared with or in combination with other treatments, different types of oestrogen or different modes of delivery. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Urinary incontinence may be improved with the use of local oestrogen treatment. However, there was little evidence from the trials on the period after oestrogen treatment had finished and no information about the long-term effects of this therapy was given. Conversely, systemic hormone replacement therapy using conjugated equine oestrogen may worsen incontinence. There were too few data to reliably address other aspects of oestrogen therapy, such as oestrogen type and dose, and no direct evidence comparing routes of administration. The risk of endometrial and breast cancer after long-term use of systemic oestrogen suggests that treatment should be for limited periods, especially in those women with an intact uterus.