Northern Health

Abstract In recent years, diffusion‐weighted magnetic resonance imaging has attracted considerable attention due to its unique potential to delineate the white matter pathways of the brain. However, methodologies currently available and in common use among neuroscientists and clinicians are typically based on the diffusion tensor model, which has comprehensively been shown to be inadequate to characterize diffusion in brain white matter. This is due to the fact that it is only capable of resolving a single fiber orientation per voxel, causing incorrect fiber orientations, and hence pathways, to be estimated through these voxels. Given that the proportion of affected voxels has been recently estimated at 90%, this is a serious limitation. Furthermore, most implementations use simple “deterministic” streamlines tracking algorithms, which have now been superseded by “probabilistic” approaches. In this study, we present a robust set of tools to perform tractography, using fiber orientations estimated using the validated constrained spherical deconvolution method, coupled with a probabilistic streamlines tracking algorithm. This methodology is shown to provide superior delineations of a number of known white matter tracts, in a manner robust to crossing fiber effects. These tools have been compiled into a software package, called MRtrix, which has been made freely available for use by the scientific community. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Imaging Syst Technol, 22, 53–66, 2012

BACKGROUND: The role of adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II colon cancer continues to be debated. The presence of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) after surgery predicts very poor recurrence-free survival, whereas its absence predicts a low risk of recurrence. The benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy for ctDNA-positive patients is not well understood. METHODS: We conducted a trial to assess whether a ctDNA-guided approach could reduce the use of adjuvant chemotherapy without compromising recurrence risk. Patients with stage II colon cancer were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio to have treatment decisions guided by either ctDNA results or standard clinicopathological features. For ctDNA-guided management, a ctDNA-positive result at 4 or 7 weeks after surgery prompted oxaliplatin-based or fluoropyrimidine chemotherapy. Patients who were ctDNA-negative were not treated. The primary efficacy end point was recurrence-free survival at 2 years. A key secondary end point was adjuvant chemotherapy use. RESULTS: Of the 455 patients who underwent randomization, 302 were assigned to ctDNA-guided management and 153 to standard management. The median follow-up was 37 months. A lower percentage of patients in the ctDNA-guided group than in the standard-management group received adjuvant chemotherapy (15% vs. 28%; relative risk, 1.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25 to 2.65). In the evaluation of 2-year recurrence-free survival, ctDNA-guided management was noninferior to standard management (93.5% and 92.4%, respectively; absolute difference, 1.1 percentage points; 95% CI, -4.1 to 6.2 [noninferiority margin, -8.5 percentage points]). Three-year recurrence-free survival was 86.4% among ctDNA-positive patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy and 92.5% among ctDNA-negative patients who did not. CONCLUSIONS: A ctDNA-guided approach to the treatment of stage II colon cancer reduced adjuvant chemotherapy use without compromising recurrence-free survival. (Supported by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and others; DYNAMIC Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12615000381583.).

BACKGROUND: Falls in nursing care facilities and hospitals are common events that cause considerable morbidity and mortality for older people. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness of interventions designed to reduce falls by older people in nursing care facilities and hospitals. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register (January 2009); the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library 2008, Issue 2); MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL (all to November 2008); trial registers and reference lists of articles. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials of interventions to reduce falls in older people in nursing care facilities or hospitals. Primary outcomes were rate of falls and risk of falling. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data. Data were pooled where appropriate. MAIN RESULTS: We included 41 trials (25,422 participants).In nursing care facilities, the results from seven trials testing supervised exercise interventions were inconsistent. This was the case too for multifactorial interventions, which overall did not significantly reduce the rate of falls (rate ratio (RaR) 0.82, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.08; 7 trials, 2997 participants) or risk of falling (risk ratio (RR) 0.93, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.01; 8 trials, 3271 participants). A post hoc subgroup analysis, however, indicated that where provided by a multidisciplinary team, multifactorial interventions reduced the rate of falls (RaR 0.60, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.72; 4 trials, 1651 participants) and risk of falling (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.95; 5 trials, 1925 participants). Vitamin D supplementation reduced the rate of falls (RaR 0.72, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.95; 4 trials, 4512 participants), but not risk of falling (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.09; 5 trials, 5095 participants).In hospitals, multifactorial interventions reduced the rate of falls (RaR 0.69, 95% CI 0.49 to 0.96; 4 trials, 6478 participants) and risk of falling (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.96; 3 trials, 4824 participants). Supervised exercise interventions showed a significant reduction in risk of falling (RR 0.44, 95% CI 0.20 to 0.97; 3 trials, 131 participants). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence that multifactorial interventions reduce falls and risk of falling in hospitals and may do so in nursing care facilities. Vitamin D supplementation is effective in reducing the rate of falls in nursing care facilities. Exercise in subacute hospital settings appears effective but its effectiveness in nursing care facilities remains uncertain.

Voxel-based analysis of diffusion MRI data is increasingly popular. However, most white matter voxels contain contributions from multiple fibre populations (often referred to as crossing fibres), and therefore voxel-averaged quantitative measures (e.g. fractional anisotropy) are not fibre-specific and have poor interpretability. Using higher-order diffusion models, parameters related to fibre density can be extracted for individual fibre populations within each voxel ('fixels'), and recent advances in statistics enable the multi-subject analysis of such data. However, investigating within-voxel microscopic fibre density alone does not account for macroscopic differences in the white matter morphology (e.g. the calibre of a fibre bundle). In this work, we introduce a novel method to investigate the latter, which we call fixel-based morphometry (FBM). To obtain a more complete measure related to the total number of white matter axons, information from both within-voxel microscopic fibre density and macroscopic morphology must be combined. We therefore present the FBM method as an integral piece within a comprehensive fixel-based analysis framework to investigate measures of fibre density, fibre-bundle morphology (cross-section), and a combined measure of fibre density and cross-section. We performed simulations to demonstrate the proposed measures using various transformations of a numerical fibre bundle phantom. Finally, we provide an example of such an analysis by comparing a clinical patient group to a healthy control group, which demonstrates that all three measures provide distinct and complementary information. By capturing information from both sources, the combined fibre density and cross-section measure is likely to be more sensitive to certain pathologies and more directly interpretable.

Because of its availability, ease of collection, and correlation with physiology and pathology, urine is an attractive source for clinical proteomics/peptidomics. However, the lack of comparable data sets from large cohorts has greatly hindered the development of clinical proteomics. Here, we report the establishment of a reproducible, high resolution method for peptidome analysis of naturally occurring human urinary peptides and proteins, ranging from 800 to 17,000 Da, using samples from 3,600 individuals analyzed by capillary electrophoresis coupled to MS. All processed data were deposited in an Structured Query Language (SQL) database. This database currently contains 5,010 relevant unique urinary peptides that serve as a pool of potential classifiers for diagnosis and monitoring of various diseases. As an example, by using this source of information, we were able to define urinary peptide biomarkers for chronic kidney diseases, allowing diagnosis of these diseases with high accuracy. Application of the chronic kidney disease-specific biomarker set to an independent test cohort in the subsequent replication phase resulted in 85.5% sensitivity and 100% specificity. These results indicate the potential usefulness of capillary electrophoresis coupled to MS for clinical applications in the analysis of naturally occurring urinary peptides.

OBJECT: Diffusion-based MRI tractography is an imaging tool increasingly used in neurosurgical procedures to generate 3D maps of white matter pathways as an aid to identifying safe margins of resection. The majority of white matter fiber tractography software packages currently available to clinicians rely on a fundamentally flawed framework to generate fiber orientations from diffusion-weighted data, namely diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). This work provides the first extensive and systematic exploration of the practical limitations of DTI-based tractography and investigates whether the higher-order tractography model constrained spherical deconvolution provides a reasonable solution to these problems within a clinically feasible timeframe. METHODS: Comparison of tractography methodologies in visualizing the corticospinal tracts was made using the diffusion-weighted data sets from 45 healthy controls and 10 patients undergoing presurgical imaging assessment. Tensor-based and constrained spherical deconvolution-based tractography methodologies were applied to both patients and controls. RESULTS: Diffusion tensor imaging-based tractography methods (using both deterministic and probabilistic tractography algorithms) substantially underestimated the extent of tracks connecting to the sensorimotor cortex in all participants in the control group. In contrast, the constrained spherical deconvolution tractography method consistently produced the biologically expected fan-shaped configuration of tracks. In the clinical cases, in which tractography was performed to visualize the corticospinal pathways in patients with concomitant risk of neurological deficit following neurosurgical resection, the constrained spherical deconvolution-based and tensor-based tractography methodologies indicated very different apparent safe margins of resection; the constrained spherical deconvolution-based method identified corticospinal tracts extending to the entire sensorimotor cortex, while the tensor-based method only identified a narrow subset of tracts extending medially to the vertex. CONCLUSIONS: This comprehensive study shows that the most widely used clinical tractography method (diffusion tensor imaging-based tractography) results in systematically unreliable and clinically misleading information. The higher-order tractography model, using the same diffusion-weighted data, clearly demonstrates fiber tracts more accurately, providing improved estimates of safety margins that may be useful in neurosurgical procedures. We therefore need to move beyond the diffusion tensor framework if we are to begin to provide neurosurgeons with biologically reliable tractography information.

High-angular-resolution diffusion-weighted imaging (HARDI) is one of the most common MRI acquisition schemes for use with higher order models of diffusion. However, the optimal b value and number of diffusion-weighted (DW) directions for HARDI are still undetermined, primarily as a result of the large number of available reconstruction methods and corresponding parameters, making it impossible to identify a single criterion by which to assess performance. In this study, we estimate the minimum number of DW directions and optimal b values required for HARDI by focusing on the angular frequency content of the DW signal itself. The spherical harmonic (SH) series provides the spherical analogue of the Fourier series, and can hence be used to examine the angular frequency content of the DW signal. Using high-quality data acquired along 500 directions over a range of b values, we estimate that SH terms above l = 8 are negligible in practice for b values up to 5000 s/mm(2), implying that a minimum of 45 DW directions is sufficient to fully characterise the DW signal. l > 0 SH terms were found to increase as a function of b value, levelling off at b = 3000 s/mm(2), suggesting that this value already provides the highest achievable angular resolution. In practice, it is recommended to acquire more than the minimum of 45 DW directions to avoid issues with imperfections in the uniformity of the DW gradient directions and to meet signal-to-noise requirements of the intended reconstruction method.

In brain regions containing crossing fibre bundles, voxel-average diffusion MRI measures such as fractional anisotropy (FA) are difficult to interpret, and lack within-voxel single fibre population specificity. Recent work has focused on the development of more interpretable quantitative measures that can be associated with a specific fibre population within a voxel containing crossing fibres (herein we use fixel to refer to a specific fibre population within a single voxel). Unfortunately, traditional 3D methods for smoothing and cluster-based statistical inference cannot be used for voxel-based analysis of these measures, since the local neighbourhood for smoothing and cluster formation can be ambiguous when adjacent voxels may have different numbers of fixels, or ill-defined when they belong to different tracts. Here we introduce a novel statistical method to perform whole-brain fixel-based analysis called connectivity-based fixel enhancement (CFE). CFE uses probabilistic tractography to identify structurally connected fixels that are likely to share underlying anatomy and pathology. Probabilistic connectivity information is then used for tract-specific smoothing (prior to the statistical analysis) and enhancement of the statistical map (using a threshold-free cluster enhancement-like approach). To investigate the characteristics of the CFE method, we assessed sensitivity and specificity using a large number of combinations of CFE enhancement parameters and smoothing extents, using simulated pathology generated with a range of test-statistic signal-to-noise ratios in five different white matter regions (chosen to cover a broad range of fibre bundle features). The results suggest that CFE input parameters are relatively insensitive to the characteristics of the simulated pathology. We therefore recommend a single set of CFE parameters that should give near optimal results in future studies where the group effect is unknown. We then demonstrate the proposed method by comparing apparent fibre density between motor neurone disease (MND) patients with control subjects. The MND results illustrate the benefit of fixel-specific statistical inference in white matter regions that contain crossing fibres.

OBJECTIVE: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials to determine if motivational interviewing leads to increased physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness or functional exercise capacity in people with chronic health conditions. DATA SOURCES: Seven electronic databases (MEDLINE, PsychINFO, EMBASE, AMED, CINHAL, SPORTDiscus and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled trials) were searched from inception until January 2014. TRIAL SELECTION: Two reviewers independently examined publications for inclusion. Trials were included if participants were adults (>18 years), had a chronic health condition, used motivational interviewing as the intervention and examined physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness or functional exercise capacity. DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers independently extracted data. Risk of bias within trials was assessed using the Physiotherapy Evidence Database Scale. DATA SYNTHESIS: Meta-analyses were conducted with standardized mean differences and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. The Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach was used to evaluate the quality of the evidence. RESULTS: Eleven publications (of ten trials) were included. There was moderate level evidence that motivational interviewing had a small effect in increasing physical activity levels in people with chronic health conditions relative to comparison groups (standardized mean differences = 0.19, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.32, p = 0.004). Sensitivity analysis based on trials that confirmed treatment fidelity produced a larger effect. No conclusive evidence was observed for cardiorespiratory fitness or functional exercise capacity. CONCLUSION: The addition of motivational interviewing to usual care may lead to modest improvements in physical activity for people with chronic health conditions.

Few prospective, randomized controlled clinical trials address the diagnosis and management of patients with Alport syndrome or thin basement membrane nephropathy. Adult and pediatric nephrologists and geneticists from four continents whose clinical practice focuses on these conditions have developed the following guidelines. The 18 recommendations are based on Level D (Expert opinion without explicit critical appraisal, or based on physiology, bench research, or first principles-National Health Service category) or Level III (Opinions of respected authorities, based on clinical experience, descriptive studies, or reports of expert committees-U.S. Preventive Services Task Force) evidence. The recommendations include the use of genetic testing as the gold standard for the diagnosis of Alport syndrome and the demonstration of its mode of inheritance; the need to identify and follow all affected members of a family with X-linked Alport syndrome, including most mothers of affected males; the treatment of males with X-linked Alport syndrome and individuals with autosomal recessive disease with renin-angiotensin system blockade, possibly even before the onset of proteinuria; discouraging the affected mothers of males with X-linked Alport syndrome from renal donation because of their own risk of kidney failure; and consideration of genetic testing to exclude X-linked Alport syndrome in some individuals with thin basement membrane nephropathy. The authors recognize that as evidence emerges, including data from patient registries, these guidelines will evolve further.

Background: Inflammation plays a crucial role in clinical manifestations and complications of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Colchicine, a commonly used treatment for gout, has recently emerged as a novel therapeutic option in cardiovascular medicine owing to its anti-inflammatory properties. We sought to determine the potential usefulness of colchicine treatment in patients with ACS. Methods: This was a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial involving 17 hospitals in Australia that provide acute cardiac care service. Eligible participants were adults (18–85 years) who presented with ACS and had evidence of coronary artery disease on coronary angiography managed with either percutaneous coronary intervention or medical therapy. Patients were assigned to receive either colchicine (0.5 mg twice daily for the first month, then 0.5 mg daily for 11 months) or placebo, in addition to standard secondary prevention pharmacotherapy, and were followed up for a minimum of 12 months. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality, ACS, ischemia-driven (unplanned) urgent revascularization, and noncardioembolic ischemic stroke in a time to event analysis. Results: A total of 795 patients were recruited between December 2015 and September 2018 (mean age, 59.8±10.3 years; 21% female), with 396 assigned to the colchicine group and 399 to the placebo group. Over the 12-month follow-up, there were 24 events in the colchicine group compared with 38 events in the placebo group ( P =0.09, log-rank). There was a higher rate of total death (8 versus 1; P =0.017, log-rank) and, in particular, noncardiovascular death in the colchicine group (5 versus 0; P =0.024, log-rank). The rates of reported adverse effects were not different (colchicine 23.0% versus placebo 24.3%), and they were predominantly gastrointestinal symptoms (colchicine, 23.0% versus placebo, 20.8%). Conclusions: The addition of colchicine to standard medical therapy did not significantly affect cardiovascular outcomes at 12 months in patients with ACS and was associated with a higher rate of mortality. Registration: URL: https://www.anzctr.org.au ; Unique identifier: ACTRN12615000861550.

OBJECTIVE: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) affects 6-18% of women. The natural history of weight gain in women with PCOS has not been well described. Here we aimed to examine longitudinal weight gain in women with and without PCOS and to assess the association between obesity and PCOS prevalence. DESIGN AND METHODS: The observational study was set in the general community. Participants were women randomly selected from the national health insurance scheme (Medicare) database. Mailed survey data were collected by the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Data from respondents to survey 4, aged 28-33 years (2006, n = 9,145) were analyzed. The main outcome measures were PCOS prevalence and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: Self-reported PCOS prevalence was 5.8% (95% CI: 5.3%-6.4%). Women reporting PCOS had higher weight, mean BMI [2.5 kg/m(2) (95% CI: 1.9-3.1)], and greater 10-year weight gain [2.6 kg (95% CI: 1.2-4.0)]. BMI was the strongest correlate of PCOS status with every BMI increment increasing the risk of reporting PCOS by 9.2% (95% CI: 6%-12%). CONCLUSIONS: This community based observational study with longitudinal reporting of weight shows that weight, BMI, and 10-year weight gain were higher in PCOS. We report the novel finding that obesity and greater weight gain are significantly associated with PCOS status. Considering the prevalence, major health and economic burden of PCOS, the increasing weight gain in young women, and established benefits of weight loss, these results have major public health implications.

CONTEXT: The relationship between testosterone and diabetes in men is an important issue, given that one third of U.S. men aged 65 yr or older have diabetes, with a similar percentage having low testosterone levels. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: The medical literature from 1970 to March 2011 was reviewed for key articles. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: In population-based studies, low testosterone is commonly associated with type 2 diabetes and the metabolic syndrome, and it identifies men with an adverse metabolic profile. The difference in testosterone levels between men with diabetes compared to men without diabetes is moderate and comparable in magnitude to the effects of other chronic diseases, suggesting that low testosterone may be a marker of poor health. Although the inverse association of testosterone with diabetes is partially mediated by SHBG, low testosterone is linked to diabetes via a bidirectional relationship with visceral fat, muscle, and possibly bone. There is consistent evidence from randomized trials that testosterone therapy alters body composition in a metabolically favorable manner, but changes are modest and have not consistently translated into reductions in insulin resistance or improvements in glucose metabolism. CONCLUSIONS: The key response to the aging, overweight man with type 2 diabetes and subnormal testosterone levels should be implementation of lifestyle measures such as weight loss and exercise, which, if successful, raise testosterone and provide multiple health benefits. Although approved therapy for diabetes should be used, testosterone therapy should not be given to such men until benefits and risks are clarified by adequately powered clinical trials.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The aim of the Pulmonary Rehabilitation Guidelines (Guidelines) is to provide evidence-based recommendations for the practice of pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) specific to Australian and New Zealand healthcare contexts. METHODS: The Guideline methodology adhered to the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE) II criteria. Nine key questions were constructed in accordance with the PICO (Population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome) format and reviewed by a COPD consumer group for appropriateness. Systematic reviews were undertaken for each question and recommendations made with the strength of each recommendation based on the GRADE (Gradings of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) criteria. The Guidelines were externally reviewed by a panel of experts. RESULTS: The Guideline panel recommended that patients with mild-to-severe COPD should undergo PR to improve quality of life and exercise capacity and to reduce hospital admissions; that PR could be offered in hospital gyms, community centres or at home and could be provided irrespective of the availability of a structured education programme; that PR should be offered to patients with bronchiectasis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary hypertension, with the latter in specialized centres. The Guideline panel was unable to make recommendations relating to PR programme length beyond 8 weeks, the optimal model for maintenance after PR, or the use of supplemental oxygen during exercise training. The strength of each recommendation and the quality of the evidence are presented in the summary. CONCLUSION: The Australian and New Zealand Pulmonary Rehabilitation Guidelines present an evaluation of the evidence for nine PICO questions, with recommendations to provide guidance for clinicians and policymakers.

BACKGROUND: Existing instruments for measuring mobility are inadequate for accurately assessing older people across the broad spectrum of abilities. Like other indices that monitor critical aspects of health such as blood pressure tests, a mobility test for all older acute medical patients provides essential health data. We have developed and validated an instrument that captures essential information about the mobility status of older acute medical patients. METHODS: Items suitable for a new mobility instrument were generated from existing scales, patient interviews and focus groups with experts. 51 items were pilot tested on older acute medical inpatients. An interval-level unidimensional mobility measure was constructed using Rasch analysis. The final item set required minimal equipment and was quick and simple to administer. The de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI) was validated on an independent sample of older acute medical inpatients and its clinimetric properties confirmed. RESULTS: The DEMMI is a 15 item unidimensional measure of mobility. Reliability (MDC(90)), validity and the minimally clinically important difference (MCID) of the DEMMI were consistent across independent samples. The MDC(90) and MCID were 9 and 10 points respectively (on the 100 point Rasch converted interval DEMMI scale). CONCLUSION: The DEMMI provides clinicians and researchers with a valid interval-level method for accurately measuring and monitoring mobility levels of older acute medical patients. DEMMI validation studies are underway in other clinical settings and in the community. Given the ageing population and the importance of mobility for health and community participation, there has never been a greater need for this instrument.

OBJECTIVE: The leading cause of epilepsy-related premature mortality is sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP). The cause of SUDEP remains unknown. To search for genetic risk factors in SUDEP cases, we performed an exome-based analysis of rare variants. METHODS: Demographic and clinical information of 61 SUDEP cases were collected. Exome sequencing and rare variant collapsing analysis with 2,936 control exomes were performed to test for genes enriched with damaging variants. Additionally, cardiac arrhythmia, respiratory control, and epilepsy genes were screened for variants with frequency of <0.1% and predicted to be pathogenic with multiple in silico tools. RESULTS: The 61 SUDEP cases were categorized as definite SUDEP (n = 54), probable SUDEP (n = 5), and definite SUDEP plus (n = 2). We identified de novo mutations, previously reported pathogenic mutations, or candidate pathogenic variants in 28 of 61 (46%) cases. Four SUDEP cases (7%) had mutations in common genes responsible for the cardiac arrhythmia disease, long QT syndrome (LQTS). Nine cases (15%) had candidate pathogenic variants in dominant cardiac arrhythmia genes. Fifteen cases (25%) had mutations or candidate pathogenic variants in dominant epilepsy genes. No gene reached genome-wide significance with rare variant collapsing analysis; however, DEPDC5 (p = 0.00015) and KCNH2 (p = 0.0037) were among the top 30 genes, genome-wide. INTERPRETATION: A sizeable proportion of SUDEP cases have clinically relevant mutations in cardiac arrhythmia and epilepsy genes. In cases with an LQTS gene mutation, SUDEP may occur as a result of a predictable and preventable cause. Understanding the genetic basis of SUDEP may inform cascade testing of at-risk family members.

BACKGROUND: A multidisciplinary collaboration investigated the world's largest, most catastrophic epidemic thunderstorm asthma event that took place in Melbourne, Australia, on Nov 21, 2016, to inform mechanisms and preventive strategies. METHODS: Meteorological and airborne pollen data, satellite-derived vegetation index, ambulance callouts, emergency department presentations, and data on hospital admissions for Nov 21, 2016, as well as leading up to and following the event were collected between Nov 21, 2016, and March 31, 2017, and analysed. We contacted patients who presented during the epidemic thunderstorm asthma event at eight metropolitan health services (each including up to three hospitals) via telephone questionnaire to determine patient characteristics, and investigated outcomes of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. FINDINGS: ). At 1800 AEDT, a gust front crossed Melbourne, plunging temperatures 10°C, raising humidity above 70%, and concentrating particulate matter. Within 30 h, there were 3365 (672%) excess respiratory-related presentations to emergency departments, and 476 (992%) excess asthma-related admissions to hospital, especially individuals of Indian or Sri Lankan birth (10% vs 1%, p<0·0001) and south-east Asian birth (8% vs 1%, p<0·0001) compared with previous 3 years. Questionnaire data from 1435 (64%) of 2248 emergency department presentations showed a mean age of 32·0 years (SD 18·6), 56% of whom were male. Only 28% had current doctor-diagnosed asthma. 39% of the presentations were of Asian or Indian ethnicity (25% of the Melbourne population were of this ethnicity according to the 2016 census, relative risk [RR] 1·93, 95% CI 1·74-2·15, p <0·0001). Of ten individuals who died, six were Asian or Indian (RR 4·54, 95% CI 1·28-16·09; p=0·01). 35 individuals were admitted to an intensive care unit, all had asthma, 12 took inhaled preventers, and five died. INTERPRETATION: Convergent environmental factors triggered a thunderstorm asthma epidemic of unprecedented magnitude, tempo, and geographical range and severity on Nov 21, 2016, creating a new benchmark for emergency and health service escalation. Asian or Indian ethnicity and current doctor-diagnosed asthma portended life-threatening exacerbations such as those requiring admission to an ICU. Overall, the findings provide important public health lessons applicable to future event forecasting, health care response coordination, protection of at-risk populations, and medical management of epidemic thunderstorm asthma. FUNDING: None.

BACKGROUND: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common endocrine disorder, affecting 8-12% of women. Lifestyle modification, including increased physical activity, is the first-line approach in managing PCOS. A systematic review was performed to identify and describe the effect of exercise as an independent intervention on clinical outcomes in PCOS. METHODS: Five databases were searched with no time limit. A pre-specified definition of PCOS was not used. Studies were included if exercise therapy (aerobic and/or resistance) could be evaluated as an independent treatment against a comparison group. Outcomes measured included cardiovascular risk factors [insulin resistance (IR), lipid profiles, blood pressure and weight] and reproductive measures (ovulation, menstrual regularity and fertility outcomes). Quality analysis was performed based on the Cochrane Handbook of Systematic Reviews and the Quality of Reporting of Meta-Analyses checklist. RESULTS: Eight manuscripts were identified (five randomized controlled trials and three cohort studies). All studies involved moderate intensity physical activity and most were of either 12 or 24 weeks duration with frequency and duration of exercise sessions ranging between studies. The most consistent improvements included improved ovulation, reduced IR (9-30%) and weight loss (4.5-10%). Improvements were not dependant on the type of exercise, frequency or length of exercise sessions. CONCLUSIONS: Exercise-specific interventions in PCOS are limited. Studies vary considerably in design, intensity and outcome measures; therefore conclusive results remain elusive. Larger, optimally designed studies are needed to both gain insights into the mechanisms of exercise action and to evaluate the public health impact of exercise of PCOS.

QUESTION: What are the attitudes, barriers and enablers to physical activity perceived by pregnant women? DESIGN: In a systematic literature review, eight electronic databases were searched: AMED, CINAHL, Embase, Joanna Briggs Institute, Medline, PsycInfo, SPORTDiscus (from database inception until June 2016) and PubMed (from 2011 until June 2016). Quantitative data expressed as proportions were meta-analysed. Data collected using Likert scales were synthesised descriptively. Qualitative data were analysed thematically using an inductive approach and content analysis. Findings were categorised as intrapersonal, interpersonal or environmental, based on a social-ecological framework. PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant women. INTERVENTION: Not applicable. OUTCOME MEASURES: Attitudes and perceived barriers and enablers to physical activity during pregnancy. RESULTS: Forty-nine articles reporting data from 47 studies (7655 participants) were included. Data were collected using questionnaires, interviews and focus groups. Meta-analyses of proportions showed that pregnant women had positive attitudes towards physical activity, identifying it as important (0.80, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.98), beneficial (0.71, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.83) and safe (0.86, 95% CI 0.79 to 0.92). This was supported by themes emerging in 15 qualitative studies that reported on attitudes (important, 12 studies; beneficial, 10 studies). Barriers to physical activity were predominantly intrapersonal such as fatigue, lack of time and pregnancy discomforts. Frequent enablers included maternal and foetal health benefits (intrapersonal), social support (interpersonal) and pregnancy-specific programs. Few environmental factors were identified. Little information was available about attitudes, barriers and enablers of physical activity for pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus who are at risk from inactivity. CONCLUSION: Intrapersonal themes were the most frequently reported barriers and enablers to physical activity during pregnancy. Social support also played an enabling role. Person-centred strategies using behaviour change techniques should be used to address intrapersonal and social factors to translate pregnant women's positive attitudes into increased physical activity participation. REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42016037643. [Harrison AL, Taylor NF, Shields N, Frawley HC (2018) Attitudes, barriers and enablers to physical activity in pregnant women: a systematic review. Journal of Physiotherapy 64: 24-32].

AIMS: To determine the incidence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and identify risk factors for seroconversion. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. Participants were recruited through direct approaches, street-based outreach, methadone and sexual health clinics and needle and syringe programmes. SETTING: Urban, regional and rural settings in New South Wales, Australia. PARTICIPANTS: Injecting drug users (IDUs) (n = 584) were screened and tested for exposure to HCV. Between 1999 and 2002 antibody HCV negative IDUs (n = 368) were enrolled and followed-up every 3-6 months until seroconversion or study completion. MEASUREMENTS: Interviewer-administered baseline and follow-up questionnaires consisted of 131 items and included demographics, drug use and risk behaviour. Approximately 10 cc of whole blood was drawn at each visit. Specimens were stored at -70C and serology performed using one or two third-generation enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and polymerase chain reaction testing. FINDINGS: Sixty-eight seroconversions were observed and incidence was 30.8 per 100 person-years, with incidence in IDUs injecting < 1 year, 133 per 100 person-years. Independent predictors of seroconversion were female gender, duration of injecting, injecting cocaine, shared use of filters and recruitment strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Women, new initiates and IDUs recruited via outreach appear to be at increased risk of infection. Results confirm the significance of cocaine injection as a risk factor and provide the first evidence outside North America of the link between shared use of drug preparation equipment and incident HCV infection. Prevention efforts should attempt to raise awareness of the risks associated with drug sharing and, in particular, the role of potentially contaminated syringes in HCV infection.