Office of Polar Programs

Six ice cores from Kilimanjaro provide an approximately 11.7-thousand-year record of Holocene climate and environmental variability for eastern equatorial Africa, including three periods of abrupt climate change: approximately 8.3, approximately 5.2, and approximately 4 thousand years ago (ka). The latter is coincident with the "First Dark Age," the period of the greatest historically recorded drought in tropical Africa. Variable deposition of F- and Na+ during the African Humid Period suggests rapidly fluctuating lake levels between approximately 11.7 and 4 ka. Over the 20th century, the areal extent of Kilimanjaro's ice fields has decreased approximately 80%, and if current climatological conditions persist, the remaining ice fields are likely to disappear between 2015 and 2020.

Three lines of evidence for abrupt tropical climate change, both past and present, are presented. First, annually and decadally averaged delta(18)O and net mass-balance histories for the last 400 and 2,000 yr, respectively, demonstrate that the current warming at high elevations in the mid- to low latitudes is unprecedented for at least the last 2 millennia. Second, the continuing retreat of most mid- to low-latitude glaciers, many having persisted for thousands of years, signals a recent and abrupt change in the Earth's climate system. Finally, rooted, soft-bodied wetland plants, now exposed along the margins as the Quelccaya ice cap (Peru) retreats, have been radiocarbon dated and, when coupled with other widespread proxy evidence, provide strong evidence for an abrupt mid-Holocene climate event that marked the transition from early Holocene (pre-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions to cooler, late Holocene (post-5,000-yr-B.P.) conditions. This abrupt event, approximately 5,200 yr ago, was widespread and spatially coherent through much of the tropics and was coincident with structural changes in several civilizations. These three lines of evidence argue that the present warming and associated glacier retreat are unprecedented in some areas for at least 5,200 yr. The ongoing global-scale, rapid retreat of mountain glaciers is not only contributing to global sea-level rise but also threatening freshwater supplies in many of the world's most populous regions.

Abstract Decadal variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection to the high-latitude South Pacific is examined by correlating the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and observations with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) over the last two decades. There is a distinct annual contrast between the 1980s and the 1990s, with the strong teleconnection in the 1990s being explained by an enhanced response during austral spring. Geopotential height anomaly composites constructed during the peak ENSO seasons also demonstrate the decadal variability. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis reveals that the 1980s September–November (SON) teleconnection is weak due to the interference between the Pacific–South American (PSA) pattern associated with ENSO and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). An in-phase relationship between these two modes during SON in the 1990s amplifies the height and pressure anomalies in the South Pacific, producing the strong teleconnections seen in the correlation and composite analyses. The in-phase relationship between the tropical and high-latitude forcing also exists in December–February (DJF) during the 1980s and 1990s. These results suggest that natural climate variability plays an important role in the variability of SAM, in agreement with a growing body of literature. Additionally, the significantly positive correlation between ENSO and SAM only during times of strong teleconnection suggests that both the Tropics and the high latitudes need to work together in order for ENSO to strongly influence Antarctic climate.

Ship‐based observations are used to describe regional and seasonal changes in the thickness distribution and characteristics of sea ice and snow cover thickness around Antarctica. The data set comprises 23,373 observations collected over more than 2 decades of activity and has been compiled as part of the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) Antarctic Sea Ice Processes and Climate (ASPeCt) program. The results show the seasonal progression of the ice thickness distribution for six regions around the continent together with statistics on the mean thickness, surface ridging, snow cover, and local variability for each region and season. A simple ridge model is used to calculate the total ice thickness from the observations of level ice and surface topography, to provide a best estimate of the total ice mass, including the ridged component. The long‐term mean and standard deviation of total sea ice thickness (including ridges) is reported as 0.87 ± 0.91 m, which is 40% greater than the mean level ice thickness of 0.62 m. Analysis of the structure function along north/south and east/west transects revealed lag distances over which sea ice thickness decorrelates to be of the order of 100–300 km, which we use as a basis for presenting near‐continuous maps of sea ice and snow cover thickness plotted on a 2.5° × 5.0° grid.

<para xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"> The elevation of the ocean surface has been measured for over two decades from spaceborne altimeters. However, existing altimeter measurements are not adequate to characterize the dynamic variations of most inland water bodies, nor of ocean eddies at scales of less than about 100 km, notwithstanding that such eddies play a key role in ocean circulation and climate change. For terrestrial hydrology, in situ and spaceborne measurements of water surface elevation form the basis for estimates of water storage change in lakes, reservoirs, and wetlands, and of river discharge. However, storage in most inland water bodies, e.g., millions of Arctic lakes, is not readily measured using existing technologies. A solution to the needs of both surface water hydrology and physical oceanography communities is the measurement of water elevations along rivers, lakes, streams, and wetlands and over the ocean surface using swath altimetry. The proposed surface water and ocean topography (SWOT) mission will make such measurements. The core technology for SWOT is the Ka-band radar interferometer (KaRIN), which would achieve spatial resolution on the order of tens of meters and centimetric vertical precision when averaged over targets of interest. Average revisit times will depend upon latitude, with two to four revisits at low to mid latitudes and up to ten revisits at high latitudes per <formula formulatype="inline"><tex Notation="TeX">$\sim$</tex></formula>20-day orbit repeat period. </para>

Two surface samples collected from the Chryse Planitia region of Mars were heated to temperatures up to 500 degrees C, and the volatiles that they evolved were analyzed with a gas chromatograph-mass spectrometer. Only water and carbon dioxide were detected. This implies that organic compounds have not accumulated to the extent that individual components could be detected at levels of a few parts in 10(9) by weight in our samples. Proposed mechanisms for the accumulation and destruction of organic compounds are discussed in the light of this limit.

Lake Vostok, the largest subglacial lake in Antarctica, is separated from the surface by approximately 4 km of glacial ice. It has been isolated from direct surface input for at least 420 000 years, and the possibility of a novel environment and ecosystem therefore exists. Lake Vostok water has not been sampled, but an ice core has been recovered that extends into the ice accreted below glacial ice by freezing of Lake Vostok water. Here, we report the recovery of bacterial isolates belonging to the Brachybacteria, Methylobacterium, Paenibacillus and Sphingomonas lineages from a sample of melt water from this accretion ice that originated 3593 m below the surface. We have also amplified small-subunit ribosomal RNA-encoding DNA molecules (16S rDNAs) directly from this melt water that originated from alpha- and beta-proteobacteria, low- and high-G+C Gram-positive bacteria and a member of the Cytophaga/Flavobacterium/Bacteroides lineage.

Antarctic snowfall exhibits substantial variability over a range of time scales, with consequent impacts on global sea level and the mass balance of the ice sheets. To assess how snowfall has affected the thickness of the ice sheets in Antarctica and to provide an extended perspective, we derived a 50-year time series of snowfall accumulation over the continent by combining model simulations and observations primarily from ice cores. There has been no statistically significant change in snowfall since the 1950s, indicating that Antarctic precipitation is not mitigating global sea level rise as expected, despite recent winter warming of the overlying atmosphere.

Satellite measurements of suspended sediment, temperature, and chlorophyll α are used in combination with surface current measurements to investigate surface circulation and structure of the Mississippi River plume. River discharge changes affect frontal locations, areal extent, and suspended sediment loads of the plume. During high river discharge (>20,000 m3 s−1) in spring, the sediment plume extends 23 km southwestward, covers 2700 km2, with maximum concentrations of 360 mg L−1. Plume temperatures vary seasonally from 10° to 28°C, with maximum surface fronts of 3.3°C km−1 in winter.East winds, prevalent in autumn, winter, and spring, drive a westward flow of river waters around the delta, linking two isolated shelf regions and increasing river discharge onto the Louisiana/Texas shelf. During peak river flow, this westward current exhibits velocities of 40–90 cm s−1, is 20 km wide, and transports 140,000–165,000 m3 s−1 of river and shelf water. It usually turns toward the coast between 89.5° W and 90° W, feeding a clockwise gyre in the Louisiana Bight and a westward coastal current. The prevalent east winds trap river water and associated nutrients on the shelf where hypoxia later develops in late spring/summer.During autumn and winter, short-term wind reversals from frontal passages rapidly reverse plume direction, initiate off-shelf transport, and reduce residence times for river waters and associated sediments, nutrients, phytoplankton, and carbon. During summer, persistent southwest and south winds force river water eastward, where cross-margin transport is likely due to the relatively narrow shelf. Slope eddies and the Loop Current control river water after leaving the shelf.

Abstract Previous work has shown that winds in the lower atmosphere over the Antarctic continent are among the most persistent on earth with directions coupled to the underlying ice topography. In 1987, Parish and Bromwich used a diagnostic model to depict details of the Antarctic near-surface airflow. A radially outward drainage pattern off the highest elevations of the ice sheets was displayed with wind speeds that generally increase from the high interior to the coast. These winds are often referred to as “katabatic,” with the implication that they are driven by radiational cooling of near-surface air over the sloping ice terrain. It has been shown that the Antarctic orography constrains the low-level wind regime through other forcing mechanisms as well. Dynamics of the lower atmosphere have been investigated increasingly by the use of numerical models since the observational network over the Antarctic remains quite sparse. Real-time numerical weather prediction for the U.S. Antarctic Program has been ongoing since the 2000–01 austral summer season via the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS). AMPS output, which is based on a polar optimized version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model, is used for a 1-yr period from June 2003 to May 2004 to investigate the mean annual and seasonal airflow patterns over the Antarctic continent to compare with previous streamline depictions. Divergent outflow from atop the continental interior implies that subsidence must exist over the continent and a direct thermal circulation over the high southern latitudes results. Estimates of the north–south mass fluxes are obtained from the mean airflow patterns to infer the influence of the elevated ice sheets on the mean meridional circulation over Antarctica.

Compared to other regions, little is known about clouds in Antarctica. This arises in part from the challenging deployment of instrumentation in this remote and harsh environment and from the limitations of traditional satellite passive remote sensing over the polar regions. Yet clouds have a critical influence on the ice sheet's radiation budget and its surface mass balance. The extremely low temperatures, absolute humidity levels, and aerosol concentrations found in Antarctica create unique conditions for cloud formation that greatly differ from those encountered in other regions, including the Arctic. During the first decade of the 21st century, new results from field studies, the advent of cloud observations from spaceborne active sensors, and improvements in cloud parameterizations in numerical models have contributed to significant advances in our understanding of Antarctic clouds. This review covers four main topics: (1) observational methods and instruments, (2) the seasonal and interannual variability of cloud amounts, (3) the microphysical properties of clouds and aerosols, and (4) cloud representation in global and regional numerical models. Aside from a synthesis of the existing literature, novel insights are also presented. A new climatology of clouds over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean is derived from combined measurements of the CloudSat and Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellites. This climatology is used to assess the forecast cloud amounts in 20th century global climate model simulations. While cloud monitoring over Antarctica from space has proved essential to the recent advances, the review concludes by emphasizing the need for additional in situ measurements.

The Tropical Composition, Cloud and Climate Coupling Experiment (TC4), was based in Costa Rica and Panama during July and August 2007. The NASA ER‐2, DC‐8, and WB‐57F aircraft flew 26 science flights during TC4. The ER‐2 employed 11 instruments as a remote sampling platform and satellite surrogate. The WB‐57F used 25 instruments for in situ chemical and microphysical sampling in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). The DC‐8 used 25 instruments to sample boundary layer properties, as well as the radiation, chemistry, and microphysics of the TTL. TC4 also had numerous sonde launches, two ground‐based radars, and a ground‐based chemical and microphysical sampling site. The major goal of TC4 was to better understand the role that the TTL plays in the Earth's climate and atmospheric chemistry by combining in situ and remotely sensed data from the ground, balloons, and aircraft with data from NASA satellites. Significant progress was made in understanding the microphysical and radiative properties of anvils and thin cirrus. Numerous measurements were made of the humidity and chemistry of the tropical atmosphere from the boundary layer to the lower stratosphere. Insight was also gained into convective transport between the ground and the TTL, and into transport mechanisms across the TTL. New methods were refined and extended to all the NASA aircraft for real‐time location relative to meteorological features. The ability to change flight patterns in response to aircraft observations relayed to the ground allowed the three aircraft to target phenomena of interest in an efficient, well‐coordinated manner.

Abstract The partitioning of resistive force between the bed and sides of Ice Stream B, Antarctica, is obtained for three large areas that have been measured using repeat aerial photogrammetry. Problems associated with data errors and local variations in ice strength and velocity are reduced by considering the areally averaged budget of forces for each photo block. Results indicate that the bed under Ice Stream B must be very weak and unable to provide much resistance. Mechanical control on this ice stream emanates almost entirely from the lateral margins.

We present the first analysis of snow depth on Arctic sea ice in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) because of its importance for sea ice thermodynamics and ringed seal ( Phoca hispida ) habitat. Snow depths in April on Arctic sea ice decrease over the 21st century in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The chief cause is loss of sea ice area in autumn and, to a lesser extent, winter. By the end of the 21st century in the RCP8.5 scenario, snowfall accumulation is delayed by about three months compared to the late 20th century in the multi‐model mean. Mean April snow depth north of 70°N declines from about 28 cm to 16 cm. Precipitation increases as expected in a warmer climate, but much of this increase in the Arctic occurs as rainfall. The seasonality of snowfall rate grows, with increasing rates in winter and decreasing rates in summer and autumn, but the cumulative snowfall from September to April does not change. Ringed seals depend on spring snow cover on Arctic sea ice to create subnivean birth lairs. The area with snow depths above 20 cm — a threshold needed for ringed seals to build snow caves — declines by 70%.

Corals from the northern Red Sea, in particular the Gulf of Aqaba (GoA), have exceptionally high bleaching thresholds approaching >5℃ above their maximum monthly mean (MMM) temperatures. These elevated thresholds are thought to be due to historical selection, as corals passed through the warmer Southern Red Sea during recolonization from the Arabian Sea. To test this hypothesis, we determined thermal tolerance thresholds of GoA versus central Red Sea (CRS) Stylophora pistillata corals using multi-temperature acute thermal stress assays to determine thermal thresholds. Relative thermal thresholds of GoA and CRS corals were indeed similar and exceptionally high (~7℃ above MMM). However, absolute thermal thresholds of CRS corals were on average 3℃ above those of GoA corals. To explore the molecular underpinnings, we determined gene expression and microbiome response of the coral holobiont. Transcriptomic responses differed markedly, with a strong response to the thermal stress in GoA corals and their symbiotic algae versus a remarkably muted response in CRS colonies. Concomitant to this, coral and algal genes showed temperature-induced expression in GoA corals, while exhibiting fixed high expression (front-loading) in CRS corals. Bacterial community composition of GoA corals changed dramatically under heat stress, whereas CRS corals displayed stable assemblages. We interpret the response of GoA corals as that of a resilient population approaching a tipping point in contrast to a pattern of consistently elevated thermal resistance in CRS corals that cannot further attune. Such response differences suggest distinct thermal tolerance mechanisms that may affect the response of coral populations to ocean warming.

The mesoscale cyclone activity observed in the portion of Antarctica that faces the South Pacific Ocean and Weddell Sea area is summarized from a study of 1991. In general, area-normalized results reveal much greater mesoscale cyclonic activity over the Ross Sea/Ross Ice Shelf and southern Marie Byrd Land than on both sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. More than 50% of the observed mesoscale vortices are of the comma cloud type. The average diameter of mesoscale vortices is approximately 200 km near Terra Nova Bay, 270 km near Byrd Glacier, and 280 km near Siple Coast. Near the Antarctic Peninsula, the average diameter is about 370 km over the Bellingshausen Sea and 380 km on the Weddell Sea side. The largest percentage of deep vortices occurs over the Bellingshausen Sea sector (38% of all cases), where convective instability frequently occurs. Over the Ross Sea/Ross Ice Shelf and Weddell Sea sectors the majority of the mesoscale vortices are low cloud features that probably do not exceed the 700-hPa level due to the prevailing lower-atmospheric stability. The areas identified as sources of mesoscale vortices concur with the locations of enhanced katabatic winds.

A sensitivity study to evaluate the impact upon regional and hemispheric climate caused by changing the optical properties of clouds over the Antarctic continent is conducted with the NCAR Community Model version 2 (CCM2). Sensitivity runs are performed in which radiation interacts with ice clouds with particle sizes of 10 and 40 μm rather than with the standard 10-μm water clouds. The experiments are carried out for perpetual January conditions with the diurnal cycle considered. The effects of these cloud changes on the Antarctic radiation budget are examined by considering cloud forcing at the top of the atmosphere and net radiation at the surface. Changes of the cloud radiative properties to those of 10-μm ice clouds over Antarctica have significant impacts on regional climate: temperature increases throughout the Antarctic troposphere by 1°–2°C and total cloud fraction over Antarctica is smaller than that of the control at low levels but is larger than that of the control in the mid- to upper troposphere. As a result of Antarctic warming and changes in the north–south temperature gradient, the drainage flows at the surface as well as the meridional mass circulation are weakened. Similarly, the circumpolar trough weakens significantly by 4–8 hPa and moves northward by about 4°–5° latitude. This regional mass field adjustment halves the strength of the simulated surface westerly winds. As a result of indirect thermodynamic and dynamic effects, significant changes are observed in the zonal mean circulation and eddies in the middle latitudes. In fact, the simulated impacts of the Antarctic cloud radiative alteration are not confined to the Southern Hemisphere. The meridional mean mass flux, zonal wind, and latent heat release exhibit statistically significant changes in the Tropics and even extratropics of the Northern Hemisphere. The simulation with radiative properties of 40-μm ice clouds produces colder surface temperatures over Antarctica by up to 3°C compared to the control. Otherwise, the results of the 40-μm ice cloud simulation are similar to those of the 10-μm ice cloud simulation.

Ice-sheet thickening or thinning rates in Antarctica are measured using the “coffee-can” or “submergence velocity” method. in this, repeated measurements of the positions of firn anchors are obtained using the global positioning system (GPS). The thickness change is (lie difference between vertical velocity so obtained and long-term rate of snow accumulation. Minor corrections for firn settling and downslopc motion are made. The technique avoids difficulties of short-term fluctuations in snowfall or snow den-sification. The result for Byrd Station is near balance, -0.004 (0.022) ma −1 , and for the Dragon, just outboard of Ice Stream B, thinning at -0.096 (0.044) ma −1 . Uncertainties with these first results are mainly due to the short occupation times during the first GPS surveys.

Arctic coastal zones serve as a sensitive filter for terrigenous matter input onto the shelves via river discharge and coastal erosion. This material is further distributed across the Arctic by ocean currents and sea ice. The coastal regions are particularly vulnerable to changes related to recent climate change. We compiled a pan-Arctic review that looks into the changing Holocene sources, transport processes and sinks of terrigenous sediment in the Arctic Ocean. Existing palaeoceanographic studies demonstrate how climate warming and the disappearance of ice sheets during the early Holocene initiated eustatic sea-level rise that greatly modified the physiography of the Arctic Ocean. Sedimentation rates over the shelves and slopes were much greater during periods of rapid sea-level rise in the early and middle Holocene, as a result of the relative distance to the terrestrial sediment sources. However, estimates of suspended sediment delivery through major Arctic rivers do not indicate enhanced delivery during this time, which suggests enhanced rates of coastal erosion. The increased supply of terrigenous material to the outer shelves and deep Arctic Ocean in the early and middle Holocene might serve as analogous to forecast changes in the future Arctic.Keywords: Arctic; riverine input; coastal erosion; land–ocean interaction; Holocene.(Published: 9 December 2015)To access the supplementary material for this article, please see supplementary files in the column to the right (under Article Tools).Citation: Polar Research 2015, 34, 24964, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/polar.v34.24964

Abstract Cold seeps can support unique faunal communities via chemosynthetic interactions fueled by seabed emissions of hydrocarbons. Additionally, cold seeps can enhance habitat complexity at the deep seafloor through the accretion of methane derived authigenic carbonates (MDAC). We examined infaunal and megafaunal community structure at high‐Arctic cold seeps through analyses of benthic samples and seafloor photographs from pockmarks exhibiting highly elevated methane concentrations in sediments and the water column at Vestnesa Ridge (VR), Svalbard (79° N). Infaunal biomass and abundance were five times higher, species richness was 2.5 times higher and diversity was 1.5 times higher at methane‐rich Vestnesa compared to a nearby control region. Seabed photos reveal different faunal associations inside, at the edge, and outside Vestnesa pockmarks. Brittle stars were the most common megafauna occurring on the soft bottom plains outside pockmarks. Microbial mats, chemosymbiotic siboglinid worms, and carbonate outcrops were prominent features inside the pockmarks, and high trophic‐level predators aggregated around these features. Our faunal data, visual observations, and measurements of sediment characteristics indicate that methane is a key environmental driver of the biological system at VR. We suggest that chemoautotrophic production enhances infaunal diversity, abundance, and biomass at the seep while MDAC create a heterogeneous deep‐sea habitat leading to aggregation of heterotrophic, conventional megafauna. Through this combination of rich infaunal and megafaunal associations, the cold seeps of VR are benthic oases compared to the surrounding high‐Arctic deep sea.