Office of Science and Technology Policy

Despite the emergence of regional climate policies, growth in global CO(2) emissions has remained strong. From 1990 to 2008 CO(2) emissions in developed countries (defined as countries with emission-reduction commitments in the Kyoto Protocol, Annex B) have stabilized, but emissions in developing countries (non-Annex B) have doubled. Some studies suggest that the stabilization of emissions in developed countries was partially because of growing imports from developing countries. To quantify the growth in emission transfers via international trade, we developed a trade-linked global database for CO(2) emissions covering 113 countries and 57 economic sectors from 1990 to 2008. We find that the emissions from the production of traded goods and services have increased from 4.3 Gt CO(2) in 1990 (20% of global emissions) to 7.8 Gt CO(2) in 2008 (26%). Most developed countries have increased their consumption-based emissions faster than their territorial emissions, and non-energy-intensive manufacturing had a key role in the emission transfers. The net emission transfers via international trade from developing to developed countries increased from 0.4 Gt CO(2) in 1990 to 1.6 Gt CO(2) in 2008, which exceeds the Kyoto Protocol emission reductions. Our results indicate that international trade is a significant factor in explaining the change in emissions in many countries, from both a production and consumption perspective. We suggest that countries monitor emission transfers via international trade, in addition to territorial emissions, to ensure progress toward stabilization of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Governments are increasingly adopting behavioral science techniques for changing individual behavior in pursuit of policy objectives. The types of "nudge" interventions that governments are now adopting alter people's decisions without coercion or significant changes to economic incentives. We calculated ratios of impact to cost for nudge interventions and for traditional policy tools, such as tax incentives and other financial inducements, and we found that nudge interventions often compare favorably with traditional interventions. We conclude that nudging is a valuable approach that should be used more often in conjunction with traditional policies, but more calculations are needed to determine the relative effectiveness of nudging.

ArcticDEM is an NGA-NSF public-private initiative to automatically produce a high-resolution, high quality, digital surface model (DSM) of the Arctic using optical stereo imagery, high-performance computing, and open source photogrammetry software. This record represents both the version 3 mosaics and the version 3 strip DEMs.

Using an atmospheric inversion approach, we estimate methane surface emissions for different methane regional sources between 1996 and 2001. Data from 13 high‐frequency and 79 low‐frequency CH 4 observing sites have been averaged into monthly mean values with associated errors arising from instrumental precision, mismatch error, and sampling frequency. Simulated methane mole fractions are generated using the 3‐D global chemical transport model (MATCH), driven by NCEP analyzed observed meteorology (T62 resolution), which accounts for the impact of synoptic and interannually varying transport on methane observations. We adapted the Kalman filter to optimally estimate methane flux magnitudes and uncertainties from seven seasonally varying (monthly varying flux) and two aseasonal sources (constant flux). We further tested the sensitivity of the inversion to different observing sites, filtered versus unfiltered observations, different model sampling strategies, and alternative emitting regions. Over the 1996–2001 period the inversion reduces energy emissions and increases rice and biomass burning emissions relative to the a priori emissions. The global seasonal emission peak is shifted from August to July because of increased rice and wetland emissions from southeast Asia. The inversion also attributes the large 1998 increase in atmospheric CH 4 to global wetland emissions. The current CH 4 observational network can significantly constrain northern emitting regions but not tropical emitting regions. Better estimates of global OH fluctuations are also necessary to fully describe interannual methane observations. This is evident in the inability of the optimized emissions to fully reproduce the observations at Samoa.

The practice of life cycle assessment has been well documented as a tool for comparing products and processes or comparing various components within a life cycle. This paper addresses the question of how changes can be made once an assessment has been completed, such as identifying the improvements that can be made to address environmental problems and to decrease impacts on human health and the environment. Green chemistry, a fairly recent approach that addresses environmental concerns at a fundamental level, has already demonstrated examples of what we call ‘life cycle innovation’, that is, improvements at all stages of the product or process life cycle. This paper explores various applications of green chemistry methodologies to all stages of a product or process life cycle.

A wide range of research has promised new tools for forecasting infectious disease dynamics, but little of that research is currently being applied in practice, because tools do not address key public health needs, do not produce probabilistic forecasts, have not been evaluated on external data, or do not provide sufficient forecast skill to be useful. We developed an open collaborative forecasting challenge to assess probabilistic forecasts for seasonal epidemics of dengue, a major global public health problem. Sixteen teams used a variety of methods and data to generate forecasts for 3 epidemiological targets (peak incidence, the week of the peak, and total incidence) over 8 dengue seasons in Iquitos, Peru and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Forecast skill was highly variable across teams and targets. While numerous forecasts showed high skill for midseason situational awareness, early season skill was low, and skill was generally lowest for high incidence seasons, those for which forecasts would be most valuable. A comparison of modeling approaches revealed that average forecast skill was lower for models including biologically meaningful data and mechanisms and that both multimodel and multiteam ensemble forecasts consistently outperformed individual model forecasts. Leveraging these insights, data, and the forecasting framework will be critical to improve forecast skill and the application of forecasts in real time for epidemic preparedness and response. Moreover, key components of this project-integration with public health needs, a common forecasting framework, shared and standardized data, and open participation-can help advance infectious disease forecasting beyond dengue.

BACKGROUND: Particles and fibres affect human health as a function of their properties such as chemical composition, size and shape but also depending on complex interactions in an organism that occur at various levels between particle uptake and target organ responses. While particulate pollution is one of the leading contributors to the global burden of disease, particles are also increasingly used for medical purposes. Over the past decades we have gained considerable experience in how particle properties and particle-bio interactions are linked to human health. This insight is useful for improved risk management in the case of unwanted health effects but also for developing novel medical therapies. The concepts that help us better understand particles' and fibres' risks include the fate of particles in the body; exposure, dosimetry and dose-metrics and the 5 Bs: bioavailability, biopersistence, bioprocessing, biomodification and bioclearance of (nano)particles. This includes the role of the biomolecule corona, immunity and systemic responses, non-specific effects in the lungs and other body parts, particle effects and the developing body, and the link from the natural environment to human health. The importance of these different concepts for the human health risk depends not only on the properties of the particles and fibres, but is also strongly influenced by production, use and disposal scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Lessons learned from the past can prove helpful for the future of the field, notably for understanding novel particles and fibres and for defining appropriate risk management and governance approaches.

Following a mass-casualty nuclear disaster, effective medical triage has the potential to save tens of thousands of lives. In order to best use the available scarce resources, there is an urgent need for biodosimetry tools to determine an individual's radiation dose. Initial triage for radiation exposure will include location during the incident, symptoms, and physical examination. Stepwise triage will include point of care assessment of less than or greater than 2 Gy, followed by secondary assessment, possibly with high throughput screening, to further define an individual's dose. Given the multisystem nature of radiation injury, it is unlikely that any single biodosimetry assay can be used as a standalone tool to meet the surge in capacity with the timeliness and accuracy needed. As part of the national preparedness and planning for a nuclear or radiological incident, the authors reviewed the primary literature to determine the capabilities and limitations of a number of biodosimetry assays currently available or under development for use in the initial and secondary triage of patients. Understanding the requirements from a response standpoint and the capability and logistics for the various assays will help inform future biodosimetry technology development and acquisition. Factors considered include: type of sample required, dose detection limit, time interval when the assay is feasible biologically, time for sample preparation and analysis, ease of use, logistical requirements, potential throughput, point-of-care capability, and the ability to support patient diagnosis and treatment within a therapeutically relevant time point.

The nuclear factor-kappaB (NF-kappaB) family of transcription factors has been shown to regulate proliferation in several cell types. Although recent studies have demonstrated aberrant expression or activity of NF-kappaB in human breast cancer cell lines and tumors, little is known regarding the precise role of NF-kappaB in normal proliferation and development of the mammary epithelium. We investigated the function of NF-kappaB during murine early postnatal mammary gland development by observing the consequences of increased NF-kappaB activity in mouse mammary epithelium lacking the gene encoding IkappaBalpha, a major inhibitor of NF-kappaB. Mammary tissue containing epithelium from inhibitor kappaBalpha (IkappaBalpha)-deficient female donors was transplanted into the gland-free mammary stroma of wild-type mice, resulting in an increase in lateral ductal branching and pervasive intraductal hyperplasia. A two- to threefold increase in epithelial cell number was observed in IkappaBalpha-deficient epithelium compared with controls. Epithelial cell proliferation was strikingly increased in IkappaBalpha-deficient epithelium, and no alteration in apoptosis was detected. The extracellular matrix adjacent to IkappaBalpha-deficient epithelium was reduced. Consistent with in vivo data, a fourfold increase in epithelial branching was also observed in purified IkappaBalpha-deficient primary epithelial cells in three-dimensional culture. These data demonstrate that NF-kappaB positively regulates mammary epithelial proliferation, branching, and functions in maintenance of normal epithelial architecture during early postnatal development.

In recent decades, public health policy and practice have been increasingly challenged by globalization, even as global financing for health has increased dramatically. This article discusses globalization and its health challenges from a vantage of ...Read More

The movement for higher standards in American education has attracted considerable public and scholarly attention during the past decade. Largely due to significant methodological challenges, however, there has been limited empirical investigation of the structure and operation of this movement on a nationwide scale. This paper develops an empirical strategy for studying broad-based educational change employing quantitative methods and an extensive database consisting of state policy indicators and data on schools and classrooms from a large number of states participating in the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) State Assessments in Mathematics. Two main elements of standards-based reform are examined: (a) correspondence between the structure of the national standards movement and patterns of state-level policy activism, and (b) linkages between state policy and classroom instructional practices. The results of a Rasch measurement analysis indicate that patterns of state policy activity closely resemble standards-based reform, as it is known as a national movement. Multilevel statistical modeling using data from a large longitudinal panel of schools further shows that state activism has a significant independent effect on teachers’ use of classroom practices consistent with a standards-based model of mathematics education. While of a modest size, this state policy effect remains robust after taking into consideration other conditions at the classroom, school, and state levels, including the prior use of standards-based instruction for schools and states. Evidence also suggests that these policy effects on instruction may operate by promoting greater teacher receptivity to reform, particularly through relevant professional development experiences.

The focus of this study is on the design of feedback control laws for swarms of robots that are based on models from fluid dynamics. We apply an incompressible fluid model to solve a pattern generation task. Possible applications of an efficient solution to this task are surveillance and the cordoning off of hazardous areas. More specifically, we use the smoothed-particle hydrodynamics (SPH) technique to devise decentralized controllers that force the robots to behave in a similar manner to fluid particles. Our approach deals with static and dynamic obstacles. Considerations such as finite size and nonholonomic constraints are also addressed. In the absence of obstacles, we prove the stability and convergence of controllers that are based on the SPH method. Computer simulations and actual robot experiments are shown to validate the proposed approach.

It has been argued that the observed core density profile of galaxies is inconsistent with having a dark matter particle that is collisionless and that alternative dark matter candidates which are self-interacting may explain observations better. One new class of self-interacting dark matter that has been proposed in the context of mirror universe models of particle physics is the mirror hydrogen atom, whose stability is guaranteed by the conservation of mirror baryon number. We show that the effective transport cross section for mirror hydrogen atoms has the right order of magnitude for solving the ``cuspy'' halo problem. Furthermore, the suppression of dissipation effects for mirror atoms due to a higher mirror mass scale prevents the mirror halo matter from collapsing into a disk, strengthening the argument for mirror matter as galactic dark matter.

Over the past two decades, Acinetobacter baumannii has emerged as a leading cause of nosocomial infections worldwide. Of particular concern are panresistant strains, leading the World Health Organization (WHO) to designate carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii as a priority 1 (critical) pathogen for research and development of new antibiotics. A key component in supporting this effort is accessibility to diverse and clinically relevant strains for testing. Here, we describe a panel of 100 diverse A. baumannii strains for use in this endeavor.

Carter Administration actions to enhance basic research and stimulate industrial innovation have focused attention on the importance of formal university-industry cooperative relationships in science and engineering. We have examined the status of, and potential for, university-industry research consortia and research partnerships and the current and prospective roles of the federal government in stimulating such relationships.

We present a particle physics realization of a recent suggestion by Spergel and Steinhardt that collisional but dissipationless dark matter may resolve the core density problem in dark-matter-dominated galaxies such as the dwarf galaxies. The realization is the asymmetric mirror universe model introduced to explain the neutrino puzzles and the microlensing anomaly. The mirror baryons are the dark matter particles with the desired properties. The time scales are right for the resolution of the core density problem and the formation of mirror stars (MACHOs observed in microlensing experiments). The mass of the region homogenized by Silk damping is between a dwarf and a large galaxy.

Natural mutations in translation initiation factor eIF4E confer resistance to potyviruses in many plant species. Potato is a staple food crop plagued by several potyviruses, yet to date no known eIF4E-mediated resistance genes have been identified. In this study, we demonstrate that transgenic expression of the pvr1(2) gene from pepper confers resistance to Potato virus Y (PVY) in potato. We then use this information to convert the susceptible potato ortholog of this allele into a de novo allele for resistance to PVY using site-directed mutagenesis. Potato plants overexpressing the mutated potato allele are resistant to virus infection. Resistant lines expressed high levels of eIF4E mRNA and protein. The resistant plants showed growth similar to untransformed controls and produced phenotypically similar tubers. This technique disrupts a key step in the viral infection process and may potentially be used to engineer virus resistance in a number of economically important plant-viral pathosystems. Furthermore, the general public may be more amenable to the 'intragenic' nature of this approach because the transferred coding region is modified from a gene in the target crop rather than from a distant species.

This article presents a mathematical model for measuring the global risk of nuclear theft and terrorism. One plausible set of parameter values used in a numerical example suggests a 29 percent probability of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next decade. The expected loss over that period would be $1.17 trillion (undiscounted), or more than $100 billion per year. Historical and other evidence is used to explore the likely values of several of the key parameters, and policy options for reducing the risk are briefly assessed. The uncertainties in estimating the risk of nuclear terrorism are very large, but even a risk dramatically smaller than that estimated in the numerical example used in this article would justify a broad range of actions to reduce the threat.

In keeping with China's President Xi Jinping's "Chinese Dream," China has set a goal of becoming a world-class innovator by 2050. China's higher education Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math (STEM) research environment will play a pivotal role in influencing whether China is successful in transitioning from a manufacturing-based economy to an innovation-driven, knowledge-based economy. Past studies on China's research environment have been primarily qualitative in nature or based on anecdotal evidence. In this study, we surveyed STEM faculty from China's top 25 universities to get a clearer understanding of how faculty members view China's overall research environment. We received 731 completed survey responses, 17% of which were from individuals who received terminal degrees from abroad and 83% of which were from individuals who received terminal degrees from domestic institutions of higher education. We present results on why returnees decided to study abroad, returnees' decisions to return to China, and differences in perceptions between returnees and domestic degree holders on the advantages of having a foreign degree. The top five challenges to China's research environment identified by survey respondents were: a promotion of short-term thinking and instant success (37% of all respondents); research funding (33%); too much bureaucratic or governmental intervention (31%); the evaluation system (27%); and a reliance on human relations (26%). Results indicated that while China has clearly made strides in its higher education system, there are numerous challenges that must be overcome before China can hope to effectively produce the kinds of innovative thinkers that are required if it is to achieve its ambitious goals. We also raise questions about the current direction of education and inquiry in China, particularly indications that government policy is turning inward, away from openness that is central to innovative thinking.

We compare modeled and observed atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) between 1996 and 2001, focusing on the role of interannually varying (IAV) transport. The comparison uses observations taken at 13 high‐frequency (∼hourly) in situ and 6 low‐frequency (∼weekly) flask measurement sites. To simulate atmospheric methane, we use the global 3‐D chemical transport model (MATCH) driven by NCEP reanalyzed winds at T62 resolution (∼1.8° × 1.8°). For the simulation, both methane surface emissions and atmospheric sink (OH destruction) are prescribed as annually repeating fields; thus, atmospheric transport is the only IAV component in the simulation. MATCH generally reproduces the amplitude and phase of the observed methane seasonal cycles. At the high‐frequency sites, the model also captures much of the observed CH 4 variability due to transient synoptic events, which are sometimes related to global transport events. For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño are shown to influence year‐to‐year methane observations at Mace Head (Ireland) and Cape Matatula (Samoa), respectively. Simulations of individual flask measurements are generally more difficult to interpret at certain sites, partially due to observational undersampling in areas of high methane variability. A model‐observational comparison of methane monthly means at seven coincident in situ and flask locations shows a better comparison at the in situ sites. Additional simulations conducted at coarser MATCH resolution (T42, ∼2.8° × 2.8°) showed differences from the T62 simulation at sites near strong emissions. This study highlights the importance of using consistent observed meteorology to simulate atmospheric methane, especially when comparing to high‐frequency observations.