Okavango Research Institute

We have investigated the stability of oxidation‐resistant elemental carbon (OREC) in a sandy savanna soil at the Matopos fire trial site, Zimbabwe. The protection of some soil plots from fire for the last 50 years at this site has enabled a comparison of OREC abundances between those plots which have been protected from fire and plots which have continued to be burnt. The total 0–5 cm OREC inventory of the soil protected from fire is estimated to be 2.0±0.5 mg cm −2 ; approximately half the “natural” OREC inventory at the study site of 3.8±0.5 mg cm −2 (the mean for plots burnt every 1–5 years). The associated half‐life for natural OREC loss from the 0–5 cm interval of the protected plots is calculated to be <100 years, with the half‐life for large carbonized particles (>2000 μm) in the soil being considerably <50 years. These results suggest that at least in well‐aerated tropical soil environments, charcoal and OREC can be can be significantly degraded on decadal to centennial timescales. OREC abundance and carbon‐isotope data suggest that OREC in coarse particles is progressively degraded into finer particle sizes, with a concomitant increase in resistance to oxidative degradation of OREC in the finer particle sizes due to the progressive loss of more readily degraded OREC. It remains unclear whether the OREC that is degraded is oxidized completely to CO 2 and subsequently emitted from the soil, reduced to a sufficiently small particle size to be illuviated to deeper parts of the soil profile, solubilized and lost from the profile as dissolved organic carbon or transmuted into a chemical form which is susceptible to attack by the acid‐dichromate reagent. The conclusion that a significant proportion of OREC can undergo natural degradation in well‐aerated environments on decadal/centennial timescales suggests that only a fraction of the total production of OREC from biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion is likely to be sequestered in the slow‐cycling “geological” carbon reservoir.

The objective of this article is to assess the socio-cultural impacts of tourism development in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. This paper largely relied on the research work and reports by the author in the Okavango Delta from 1998 to 2004. In all instances, both primary and secondary data sources were used. However, much of the paper is based on the results of a survey carried out between April 2001 and July 2002. Findings indicate that tourism development in the Okavango Delta has both positive and negative socio-cultural impacts. Some of the positive socio-cultural impacts include income generation and employment opportunities from both community-based tourism projects and safari companies, infrastructure development such as airport and airstrips, tarred roads, hotels, lodges and camps, the improvement of social services such as banking, health, telecommunications and access to electricity. The negative socio-cultural impacts include enclave tourism, racism, relocation of traditional communities, breaking up of the traditional family structure, increase in crime, prostitution, the adoption of the Western safari style of dressing and a traditionally unacceptable ‘vulgar’ language by young people. This article argues that tourism needs to be sensitive to local cultural norms and beliefs for it to be accepted by local people and promote sustainable development. This is possible if all the stakeholders (government, operators and local people) collaborate in policy formulation, implementation and monitoring. This can minimise the negative cultural impacts and instead promote the positive.

Enemy release of exotic plants from soil pathogens has been tested by examining plant-soil feedback effects in repetitive growth cycles. However, positive soil feedback may also be due to enhanced benefit from the local arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). Few studies actually have tested pathogen effects, and none of them did so in arid savannas. In the Kalahari savanna in Botswana, we compared the soil feedback of the exotic grass Cenchrus biflorus with that of two dominant native grasses, Eragrostis lehmanniana and Aristida meridionalis. The exotic grass had neutral to positive soil feedback, whereas both native grasses showed neutral to negative feedback effects. Isolation and testing of root-inhabiting fungi of E. lehmanniana yielded two host-specific pathogens that did not influence the exotic C. biflorus or the other native grass, A. meridionalis. None of the grasses was affected by the fungi that were isolated from the roots of the exotic C. biflorus. We isolated and compared the AMF community of the native and exotic grasses by polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel elecrophoresis (PCR-DGGE), targeting AMF 18S rRNA. We used roots from monospecific field stands and from plants grown in pots with mixtures of soils from the monospecific field stands. Three-quarters of the root samples of the exotic grass had two nearly identical sequences, showing 99% similarity with Glomus versiforme. The two native grasses were also associated with distinct bands, but each of these bands occurred in only a fraction of the root samples. The native grasses contained a higher diversity of AMF bands than the exotic grass. Canonical correspondence analyses of the AMF band patterns revealed almost as much difference between the native and exotic grasses as between the native grasses. In conclusion, our results support the hypothesis that release from soil-borne enemies may facilitate local abundance of exotic plants, and we provide the first evidence that these processes may occur in arid savanna ecosystems. Pathogenicity tests implicated the involvement of soil pathogens in the soil feedback responses, and further studies should reveal the functional consequences of the observed high infection with a low diversity of AMF in the roots of exotic plants.

The objective of this paper is to assess the problems and prospects of sustainable tourism development in developing countries with special reference to the Okavango Delta, Botswana. Using both secondary and primary data sources, this paper points out that tourism in developing countries does not always adhere to the principles of sustainable tourism development. In the Okavango Delta, the tourism industry is designed to meet the interests of tourists from developed countries and is dominated by foreign safari companies. The tourism industry in the Okavango Delta does not significantly take into consideration the sociocultural, economic and environmental needs of the host economy. It is characterised by: the marginalisation of local companies and investors; leakages and repatriation of tourism revenue from Botswana to developed countries; the failure of tourism to promote rural development and poverty alleviation; and, the failure to observe local environmental regulations to conserve the Okavango Delta as a natural ecosystem. This paper argues that, despite these problems, such destinations have the potential to contribute to sustainable tourism development. This requires a planning process that satisfies the needs of tourists and tour operators while being sensitive to the sociocultural, economic and environmental needs of host countries and destinations.

Abstract Strategies for the management of cultural heritage resources within a sustainable development concept framework are examined. In line with the 1992 Rio Declaration principles of sustainable development, the paper suggests sustainability principles relating to community participation as more relevant for the field of cultural heritage resource management in Botswana. The article illustrates this relevance by exploring and drawing out production and consumption indicators of cultural heritage resources in both their tangible and intangible composition. It concludes that participation principles of sustainable development are more applicable as a point of departure towards integration of sustainability into cultural heritage resource management as communities are carriers and immediate custodians of cultural resources in Africa. Conservation processes that set limits of acceptable change for resource use are suggested within a modified framework that links community interaction with cultural resources at both social and resource management levels. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Herbivory and fire shape plant community structure in grass-dominated ecosystems, but these disturbance regimes are being altered around the world. To assess the consequences of such alterations, we excluded large herbivores for seven years from mesic savanna grasslands sites burned at different frequencies in North America (Konza Prairie Biological Station, Kansas, USA) and South Africa (Kruger National Park). We hypothesized that the removal of a single grass-feeding herbivore from Konza would decrease plant community richness and shift community composition due to increased dominance by grasses. Similarly, we expected grass dominance to increase at Kruger when removing large herbivores, but because large herbivores are more diverse, targeting both grasses and forbs, at this study site, the changes due to herbivore removal would be muted. After seven years of large-herbivore exclusion, richness strongly decreased and community composition changed at Konza, whereas little change was evident at Kruger. We found that this divergence in response was largely due to differences in the traits and numbers of dominant grasses between the study sites rather than the predicted differences in herbivore assemblages. Thus, the diversity of large herbivores lost may be less important in determining plant community dynamics than the functional traits of the grasses that dominate mesic, disturbance-maintained savanna grasslands.

Abstract We present a study of soil organic carbon (SOC) inventories and δ 13 C values for 625 soil cores collected from well‐drained, coarse‐textured soils in eight areas along a 1000 km moisture gradient from Southern Botswana, north into southern Zambia. The spatial distribution of trees and grass in the desert, savannah and woodland ecosystems along the transect control large systematic local variations in both SOC inventories and δ 13 C values. A stratified sampling approach was used to smooth this variability and obtain robust weighted‐mean estimates for both parameters. Weighted SOC inventories in the 0–5 cm interval of the soils range from 7 mg cm −2 in the driest area (mean annual precipitation, MAP=225 mm) to 41±12 mg cm −2 in the wettest area (MAP=910 mm). For the 0–30 cm interval, the inventories are 37.8 mg cm −2 for the driest region and 157±33 mg cm −2 for the wettest region. SOC inventories at intermediate sites increase as MAP increases to approximately 400–500 mm, but remain approximately constant thereafter. This plateau may be the result of feedbacks between MAP, fuel load and fire frequency. Weighted δ 13 C values decrease linearly in both the 0–5 and 0–30 cm depth intervals as MAP increases. A value of –17.5±1.0‰ characterizes the driest areas, while a value of −25±0.7‰ characterizes the wettest area. The decrease in δ 13 C value with increasing MAP reflects an increasing dominance of C 3 vegetation as MAP increases. SOC in the deeper soil (5–30 cm depth) is, on average, 0.4±0.3‰ enriched in 13 C relative to SOC in the 0–5 cm interval.

Abstract We determined key photosynthetic gas exchange parameters, and their temperature dependence, in dominant woody plants at four savanna sites on a moisture gradient in Botswana, southern Africa. Leaf stable carbon and nitrogen (N) isotope and morphological measures were made concurrently. Sampling of these predominantly non‐N‐fixing species took place during an exceptional rainfall season, representing near‐optimum conditions for primary production at these sites. The mean specific leaf area and leaf size were positively related to mean annual rainfall (MAR); species with larger leaves of lower density were more abundant in wetter sites. Almost all species at all sites showed high net light‐saturated photosynthetic rates ( A max ≫10 μmol CO 2 m −2 s −1 ) due both to high CO 2 carboxylation ( V c,max ) and RubP‐regeneration capacity ( J max ). These high rates were associated with high values of leaf [N]. Across all sites, the temperature response of A max showed no clear optimum, and a gradual drop from 25°C to 35°C, without notable temperature limitation at leaf temperatures in excess of 35°C. Dark respiration rate ( R day ) across all species and sites increased exponentially with increasing leaf temperature. Species sampled at selected sites revealed a negative relationship between leaf δ 13 C (stable carbon isotope ratio) and MAR, suggesting higher leaf‐level water‐use efficiency at drier sites when integrated over the life of the leaf. At wetter sites, specific leaf [N] was lower and photosynthetic nitrogen‐use efficiency increased, a pattern reflected at the ecosystem level by less 15 N enrichment of leaves at these sites. Taken together, the results suggest a switch from water‐use to nitrogen‐use efficiency constraints with increasing moisture availability. These constraints impact leaf form and function significantly, and may emerge at the ecosystem level in aspects of water and N cycling.

Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions were measured in a mopane woodland near Maun, Botswana in January–February 2001 as part of SAFARI 2000. This landscape is comprised of more than 95% of one woody plant species, Colophospermum mopane (Caesalpinaceae). Mopane woodlands extend over a broad area of southern Africa. A leaf cuvette technique was used to determine the emission capacities of the major vegetation and the temperature and light dependence of the emissions. In addition, relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) measurements of BVOC fluxes were made on a flux tower, where net CO 2 emissions were also measured simultaneously. Large light‐dependent emissions of terpenes (mostly α‐pinene and d ‐limonene) were observed from the mopane woodland. The diurnal BVOC emissions were integrated and compared with the CO 2 flux. Monoterpene flux exceeded 3000 μg C m −2 h −1 during the daytime period, comparable to isoprene fluxes and much higher than terpene fluxes measured in most areas. The terpene flux constituted approximately 25% of the diurnal net carbon exchange (CO 2 ) during the experimental period. Other BVOC emissions may also contribute to the carbon exchange.

ABSTRACT This paper assesses the success and sustainability of Community-Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM) in the Okavango Delta. It does so by asking the following questions a) to what extent has CBNRM contributed to sustainable natural resource use, rural economic development, enhanced rural livelihoods and benefit sharing? b) To what extent has power been devolved to the rural communities especially in relation to resource ownership and management? c) What are the existing and potential challenges facing the successful implementation of CBNRM in the Okavango Delta? With illustrations from the three CBNRM projects of Okavango Community Trust, Okavango Kopano Mokoro Community Trust and the Khwai Development Trust, this paper notes that local communities have successfully established community trusts as institutions to provide leadership in their participation in tourism and natural resource management. They also derive socio-economic benefits from CBNRM such as the participation in decision-making, employment and income generation. However, the lack of entrepreneurships and managerial skills, understanding of the concept of CBNRM, poor benefit sharing on CBNRM participants, and enclave tourism are some of the challenges that face CBNRM in the Okavango Delta. in the event that empowerment issues especially training and capacity building are successfully addressed, CBNRM in the Okavango Delta has the potential to be a successful model of community-based tourism

An area exclosure is the practice of land management that involves the exclusion of livestock and humans from openly accessing an area that is characterized by severe degradation. Area exclosures have been employed as cheap and convenient means of rehabilitating degraded forests/woodlands. A study was carried out to (i) assess the species richness, diversity and evenness; (ii) determine the densities, frequencies, dominance and importance value index; and (iii) assess the population structure and regeneration status of woody species inside and outside the fence (area exclosure) of Okavango Research Institute (ORI) located in Maun, northern Botswana. Thirty-five woody species were recorded inside (32 spp.) and outside (24 spp.) the ORI compound, and the population structure and regeneration status of the woody species were better inside than outside the ORI compound. The exclosure had seven times higher mean density of woody species than outside ORI, and an exceptional regeneration of seedlings was observed inside than outside the ORI compound, suggesting the process of recovery of the degraded woodland. The frequencies of more than half of the woody species also showed increment inside than outside the exclosure. The results suggest that the exclosed area is still in an initial recovery stage since it had been an open grazing area prior to the establishment of the exclosure. Most of the woody species encountered outside ORI showed hampered recruitment and regeneration, owing to different anthropogenic impacts and overgrazing by animals. Despite the relatively short period (10 years) of exclosure establishment, results from the present study have further provided empirical evidences on the actual crucial roles played by area exclosures to increase woody species richness, diversity, evenness, density, frequency, dominance and important value index as well as enhance the population structure and regeneration of the woody species in northern Botswana. Future research is recommended focusing on comparative studies on herbaceous species richness, diversity and density, horizontal and vertical distribution of soil seed banks, species richness of soil microorganisms, plant and soil biomass, plant and soil carbon pools (above and below ground) as well as soil contents and properties inside and outside the ORI compound.

Despite a history of pesticide usage, few data exist on their concentrations in air and soil of Southern Africa. To add to the understanding of the processes controlling the fate of organic contaminants in arid regions, the levels, spatial trends, and seasonal variability of pesticides were studied in air and soil from Botswana. XAD resin-based passive air samplers (PAS) were deployed at 15 sites across the country from May 2006 to May 2007. Soil samples were collected from the vicinity of nine of the PAS sampling sites. In addition, 27 24-h high-volume air samples were collected in Maun, at the southeastern edge of the Okavango Delta, every two weeks for one year. Levels of pesticides in PAS were low, with α-endosulfan and lindane being most abundant. Concentrations in soils were extremely low and only soils with high organic carbon contained notable amounts of dieldrin and traces of other pesticides. In particular, air and soil from the Okavango Delta had very low levels even though the area had repeatedly been sprayed with DDT and endosulfan in the past. Air samples from Eastern Botswana, where the majority of the population lives, contained higher levels. Higher air concentrations of α-endosulfan occurred during summer and higher HCB levels occurred in winter. This seasonality was related with neither minor seasonal changes in temperature nor hydrological seasonal events such as the rainy season or the flooding of the Okavango Delta. Thus, the observed spatial and seasonal patterns are more likely related to pesticide usage pattern than to environmental factors or historical use. High temperature and low organic matter content limit the uptake capacity of most subtropical soils for pesticides. No evidence was found that sorption to dry mineral matter plays a major role. Arid soils in subtropical regions are therefore neither a major reservoir of organic contaminants nor do they constitute a significant long-term source of pesticides to the atmosphere.

Abstract. The Okavango Delta is a flood-pulsed wetland, which supports a large tourism industry and the subsistence of the local population through the provision of ecosystem services. In order to obtain insight into the influence of various environmental factors on flood propagation and distribution in this system, an analysis was undertaken of a 30-year record of hydrometric data (discharges and water levels) from one of the Delta distributaries. The analysis revealed that water levels and discharges at any given channel site in this distributary are influenced by a complex interplay of flood wave and local rainfall inputs, modified by channel-floodplain interactions, in-channel sedimentation and technical interventions, both at the given site and upstream. Additionally, cyclical variation of channel vegetation due to intermittent nutrient loading, possibly sustained by nutrient recycling, may play a role. It is shown that short and long-term flood dynamics are mainly due to variation in floodplain flows. As a consequence, discharge data collected within the main channels of distributaries do not adequately represent flooding dynamics in the system. The paper contributes to the understanding of seasonal and long-term flood pulsing and their variation in low gradient systems of channels and floodplains.

Notwithstanding the adoption of various anti-poaching strategies, rhino and elephant poaching levels are increasingly growing in Southern African. To protect wildlife, the government of Botswana has devised and implemented controversial ‘shoot to kill’ policy against poachers. This strategy appears to be working in reducing poaching which is thought to be ‘virtually non-existent’ in Botswana. Thus the neighbouring countries have resorted to relocate their rhino populations to Botswana. This paper discusses the militarisation of conservation generally as a policy alternative. It makes an in-depth assessment of Botswana’s shoot-to-kill policy. This article adopts an exploratory research method to review the relevant literature in investigating the effectiveness of Botswana’s shoot-to-kill policy. It investigates whether this policy can be adopted by other countries particularly South Africa to combat poaching. This policy analysis is important for South Africa as it has been forced to transfer or migrate a substantial number of rhinos to Botswana.

ABSTRACT Drylands of Borana Zone, southern Ethiopia, are endowed with different woody species that produce commercial gums and resins, which support the Livelihoods of pastoral and agro-pastoral communities. The objectives of this study were to: (i) assess the role of gum and resin production and marketing in the livelihoods of the pastoral and agro-pastoral communities; (ii) identify major challenges and constraints that hinder sustainable production; (iii) analyze the existing opportunities related to future gum and resin production and commercialization; and (iv) understand the perception of the local communities and the overall future prospects of sustainable gum and resin development, production and commercialization. A semi-structured questionnaire was administered to a total of 80 households, randomly selected from two representative Districts (Arero and Yabello) in the Borana Zone. Group disscussions were also held with 12 key informants. Additional information was also collected from District and Zonal officials, local merchants and enterprises engaged in businesses involving gums and resins. The results revealed that the pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in Borana Zone have intimate attachments with the woody species that provide gums and resins, and that collection and marketing of gums and resins are among the three major sources of livelihoods of local communities, along with livestock and crop production. The average annual household income generated from the sale of gums and resins was estimated at about 2,674 and 2,403 Ethiopian Birr (about 311.00 and 279.00 USD) at Arero and Yabello, respectively. Collection and sale of gums and resins represented the sole source of income for the disadvantaged groups in the local communities, i.e. women, school children and poor households with neither livestock nor land resources. The majority of respondents identified the income generated from the sale of gums and resins as a safety-net safeguarding the communities during recurrent drought periods. Gums and resins are also sources of food, chewing gum, traditional medicine, fodder, traditional soap, insect repellents, fragrance for smoking houses and other cultural practices. Several challenges and constraints are discussed, which affect the sustainable use of the vast woodlands for enhanced livelihoods and reduced household vulnerability in Borana.

Abstract The June 2, 2018 impact of asteroid 2018 LA over Botswana is only the second asteroid detected in space prior to impacting over land. Here, we report on the successful recovery of meteorites. Additional astrometric data refine the approach orbit and define the spin period and shape of the asteroid. Video observations of the fireball constrain the asteroid's position in its orbit and were used to triangulate the location of the fireball's main flare over the Central Kalahari Game Reserve. Twenty‐three meteorites were recovered. A consortium study of eight of these classifies Motopi Pan as an HED polymict breccia derived from howardite, cumulate and basaltic eucrite, and diogenite lithologies. Before impact, 2018 LA was a solid rock of ~156 cm diameter with high bulk density ~2.85 g cm −3 , a relatively low albedo p V ~ 0.25, no significant opposition effect on the asteroid brightness, and an impact kinetic energy of ~0.2 kt. The orbit of 2018 LA is consistent with an origin at Vesta (or its Vestoids) and delivery into an Earth‐impacting orbit via the ν 6 resonance. The impact that ejected 2018 LA in an orbit toward Earth occurred 22.8 ± 3.8 Ma ago. Zircons record a concordant U‐Pb age of 4563 ± 11 Ma and a consistent 207 Pb/ 206 Pb age of 4563 ± 6 Ma. A much younger Pb‐Pb phosphate resetting age of 4234 ± 41 Ma was found. From this impact chronology, we discuss what is the possible source crater of Motopi Pan and the age of Vesta's Veneneia impact basin.

In areas with diverse herbivore communities such as African savannas, the frequency of disturbance by fire may alter the top–down role of different herbivore species on plant community dynamics. In a seven year experiment in the Kruger National Park, South Africa, we examined the habitat use of nine common herbivore species across annually burned, triennially burned and unburned areas. We also used two types of exclosures (plus open access controls) to examine the impacts of different herbivores on plant community dynamics across fire disturbance regimes. Full exclosures excluded all herbivores > 0.5 kg (e.g. elephant, zebra, impala) while partial exclosures allowed access only to animals with shoulder heights ≤ 0.85 m (e.g. impala, steenbok). Annual burns attracted a diverse suite of herbivores, and exclusion of larger herbivores (e.g. elephant, zebra, wildebeest) increased plant abundance. When smaller species, mainly impala, were also excluded there were declines in plant diversity, likely mediated by a decline in open space available for colonization of uncommon plant species. Unburned areas attracted the least diverse suite of herbivores, dominated by impala. Here, herbivore exclusion, especially of impala, led to strong declines in plant richness and diversity. With no fire disturbance, herbivore exclusion led to competitive exclusion via increases in plant dominance and light limitation. In contrast, on triennial burns, herbivore exclusion had no effect on plant richness or diversity, potentially due to relatively little open space for colonization across exclosure treatments but also little competitive exclusion due to the intermediate fire disturbance. Further, the diverse suite of grazers and browsers on triennial burns may have had a compensating effect of on the diversity of grasses and forbs. Ultimately, our work shows that differential disturbance regimes can result in differential consumer pressure across a landscape and result in heterogeneous patterns in top–down control of community dynamics.

Summary Productivity and herbivory often interact to shape plant community composition and species richness with levels of production mediating the impact of herbivory. However, differences in herbivore traits such as size, feeding guild and dietary requirements may result in different impacts of diverse herbivore guilds across productivity gradients. We used size‐selective herbivore exclosures to separate the effects of herbivory by larger herbivores, such as elephant, Burchell's zebra and blue wildebeest from those of medium/smaller herbivores, such as impala and warthog, on herbaceous plant communities. These exclosures were established along a 10‐fold productivity gradient, ranging from 90 to 950 g m −2 of standing plant biomass in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. Exclusion of all herbivores generally increased plant species richness at low productivity, but decreased richness at high productivity. Exclusion of medium/smaller herbivores (e.g. impala, warthog) showed stronger effects on plant richness, particularly loss of forbs, at higher productivity rather than at lower productivity. In contrast, exclusion of larger herbivores had stronger effects on plant richness, typically with increasing forb richness, at low rather than high productivity. The change in species richness appeared linked to changes in light availability following herbivore exclusion. Strong increases in shading led to declines in species richness while more moderate increases in shading led to increases in species richness, possibly due to amelioration of heat and water stress by modest increases in shading. Increasing plant dominance, which likely alters multiple mechanisms of plant interactions, was correlated with declines in plant richness following herbivore exclusion. The impact of increasing dominance on plant richness operated independent of productivity, with the exclusion of impala appearing particularly important in driving this relationship. Synthesis . We show that the impact of herbivore losses on plant diversity will be strongly situation dependent and will vary with the herbivores lost (e.g. larger vs. smaller, grazers vs. browsers), plant functional type (e.g. grasses vs. forbs) and environmental context (e.g. productivity). Although larger herbivores are often emphasized for their strong impacts on community dynamics and ecosystem processes, we show that smaller, abundant herbivores can exert strong top‐down control on plant communities.

This article makes an assessment of the following key natural resources in the Okavango Delta: arable land, basket-making resources, fish stocks, and river reeds. Non-data-intensive socio-economic indicators (as opposed to conventional data-intensive indicators) of trends in resource prices, trends in labour time for resource extraction, substitution of less preferred commodities, maximum sustainable yield and perceived scarcity were utilized to assess the scarcity of the resources. The study reveals that basket-weaving resources, land for flood recession arable (molapo) agriculture, and river reeds are increasingly becoming scarce in the harvesting areas, whereas fish stocks are still abundant. It is recommended that appropriate policies should be introduced for the management of natural resources. Property rights could be granted to communities to manage natural resources such as fish and veld products in line with the wildlife model for community based natural resources management (CBNRM). In addition, the authors suggest that the Government of Botswana should take the responsibility for allocating land for molapo arable farming in order to make it more accessible.

The natural resources of the Okavango Delta, a large wetland in semi-arid Botswana, form the basis of livelihoods of the local population and support economically important high-end tourism. The hydro-ecological system is dynamic at various time scales, responding to climate variability, and both flood and drought conditions have in the past put pressure on the system’s users. Human-induced climate change can potentially exacerbate the effects of existing climate variability. In this paper, we present simulated future hydro-ecological conditions in the Okavango Delta generated by a step-wise modelling procedure. The outputs of three different global climate models are used to drive a suite of hydrological models. Lastly, a rule-based dynamic model relates hydroperiod conditions to vegetation assemblages. The simulated future conditions vary from much drier to much wetter than those recorded in the past. Models indicate that climatic change would result in change in both extent and distribution of the major ecotopes of the Okavango Delta. Importantly, the different ecotopes will be affected to varying degrees. The projected changes will have consequences for the wildlife-based management of the system. They will affect, for example, available grazing and migration/ movement patterns of large herbivores, as well as fish. Such consequences can have rapid up-trophic level effects, ultimately leading to potentially substantial impacts on the economy. The main conclusion to be drawn is that management planning and land-use systems should be as flexible as possible.Keywords: climate change, development planning, GCM, hydro-ecological modelling, wetland management