Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy

The authors conducted a time-series analysis to examine seasonal variation of mortality risk in association with particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(2.5)) and chemical species in Xi'an, China, using daily air pollution and all-cause and cause-specific mortality data (2004-2008). Poisson regression incorporating natural splines was used to estimate mortality risks of PM(2.5) and its chemical components, adjusting for day of the week, time trend, and meteorologic effects. Increases of 2.29% (95% confidence interval: 0.83, 3.76) for all-cause mortality and 3.08% (95% confidence interval: 0.94, 5.26) for cardiovascular mortality were associated with an interquartile range increase of 103.0 μg/m(3) in lagged 1-2 day PM(2.5) exposure. Stronger effects were observed for the elderly (≥65 years), males, and cardiovascular diseases groups. Secondary components (sulfate and ammonium), combustion species (elemental carbon, sulfur, chlorine), and transition metals (chromium, lead, nickel, and zinc) appeared most responsible for increased risk, particularly in the cold months. The authors concluded that differential association patterns observed across species and seasons indicated that PM(2.5)-related effects might not be sufficiently explained by PM(2.5) mass alone. Future research is needed to examine spatial and temporal varying factors that might play important roles in modifying the PM(2.5)-mortality association.

Grazing by livestock greatly affects the soil carbon (C) cycle in grassland ecosystems. However, the effects of grazing at different intensities and durations on the dynamics of soil C in its subsoil layers are not clearly understood. Here, we compiled data from 78 sites (in total 122 published studies) to examine the effects of varying grazing intensities and durations on soil C content at different depths for grasslands in China. Our meta-analysis revealed that grazing led to an overall decrease in soil C content and productivity of above-ground vegetation (e.g., above-ground biomass and litter) but an increase in below-ground biomass. Specifically, the effects of grazing on soil C content became less negative or even positive with increasing soil depths. An increase of soil C content was consequently found under light grazing (LG), although soil C content still decreased under moderate and heavy grazing. The increase in soil C content under LG could be largely attributed to the increase of soil C content in subsoil layers (>20 cm), despite that soil C content in surface soil layer (0-20 cm) decreased. Moreover, the magnitude of increase in soil C content under LG in subsoil layers increased with grazing duration. A possible reason of the increase in soil C content in the subsoil layers was due to the increases in below-ground biomass. Our study highlights that LG may modify the allocation of C input and promote its accumulation in subsoil layers, thus offsetting the negative impact of grazing on surface soil C content, a finding that has significant implications for C sequestration in grasslands.

There are significant co-benefits to reducing black carbon emissions for air quality, human health and the climate; yet the pollutant has not yet received sufficient policy attention in China. Overall, realizing co-benefits is complicated by the fact that climate and air quality policy goals have been pursued separately from each other. In this article, we explore the current policy and legal status of black carbon emissions across the domains of air pollution prevention and control, and climate change with a view to identify synergies and opportunities for an integrated approach. We suggest three ways to strengthen the policy, legal and institutional nexus of air pollution and climate change to reduce black carbon emissions in China: improving scientific knowledge and the science-policy interface, increasing policy and legal connections between air quality and climate portfolios, and enhancing institutional linkages. For instance, we argue that more interdisciplinary cooperation and improvements to the black carbon inventory as well as a closer science-policy relationship are necessary. From a legal and policy angle, we identify clear openings through which to integrate reduction of black carbon emissions into the air pollution prevention and control agenda. Institutionally, the recent government reform brings air quality and climate portfolios under the supervision of the same ministry but their integration is still to be ensured. In addition, vertical linkages between different levels of environmental governance - central, provincial and municipal - need to be addressed.

SO2 emissions have been declining in China recently. The emission reduction has mainly been achieved engineering reduction, structural reduction, and administrative reduction. In this paper, three key industries (electricity generation, steel, and cement) are selected to measure the effects of SO2 emission reductions, the synergy effects of energy saving, and CO2 emission reduction. The main results show that, during the period of the ‘11th Five-Year Plan’, engineering reduction of coal-fired power plant desulfurization played the most crucial role in the emission reduction; both engineering reduction and structural reduction can achieve low-pollution emission, but the contributions are not the same due to the divergence of relevant industries. Generally speaking, structural reduction can relatively easily achieve the synergy effect of the main pollutants and GHGs; in comparison, however, engineering reduction does not easily achieve the synergy effect. During the ‘13th Five-Year Plan’ period, the following plans are proposed: strengthening the front pollution control, increasing the engineering reduction, narrowing the difference between the pollution reduction engineering ability and the actual pollution reduction effect, and strengthening the supervisory and administrative effect of both the approval of the front end and the running of the middle end.POLICY RELEVANCEChina is on the way to realize industrialization and urbanization. The climate-friendly environmental protection strategy is particularly important for rapidly developing countries such as China, because it can address air pollution and climate change issues at the same time in a more economically efficient manner. This paper selects three key industries to evaluate current pollutant control policy synergy effect from the ‘11th Five-Year Plan’ to the ‘12th Five-Year Plan’ period in order to give more sense to policy makers during 13th Five-Year Plan. The estimate of this study shows that the control of pollutants can generally have synergic control effects on GHG emissions and give detailed measures for 13th Five-Year Plan.

Abstract. Surface ozone (O3) pollution during summer (June–August) over eastern China has become more severe in recent years, resulting in a co-occurrence of surface O3 and PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤ 2.5 µm in the air) pollution. However, the mechanisms regarding how the synoptic weather pattern (SWP) might influence this compound pollution remain unclear. In this study, we applied the T-mode principal component analysis (T-PCA) method to objectively classify the occurrence of four SWPs over eastern China, based on the geopotential heights at 500 hPa during summer (2015–2018). These four SWPs over eastern China were closely related to the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), exhibiting significant intra-seasonal and interannual variations. Based on ground-level air quality observations, remarkable spatial and temporal disparities of surface O3 and PM2.5 pollution were also found under the four SWPs. In particular, there were two SWPs that were sensitive to compound pollution (Type 1 and Type 2). Type 1 was characterized by a stable WPSH ridge with its axis at about 22∘ N and the rain belt located south of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD); Type 2 also exhibited WPSH dominance (ridge axis at ∼ 25∘ N) but with the rain belt (over the YRD) at a higher latitude compared to Type 1. In general, SWPs have played an important role as driving factors of surface O3–PM2.5 compound pollution in a regional context. Our findings demonstrate the important role played by SWPs in driving regional surface O3–PM2.5 compound pollution, in addition to the large quantities of emissions, and may also provide insights into the regional co-occurring high levels of both PM2.5 and O3 via the effects of certain meteorological factors.

Canada has committed itself under the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions between 2008 and 2012 on average by six per cent from the base 1990 level. As of 2009, however, Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions are far above its 1990 level which calls for stringent short-term policy measures if Canada is to meet its legally binding commitment. This paper uses a multi-region, multi-commodity static general equilibrium model to quantify the economic impacts of alternative compliance strategies for Canada in the context of climate policies undertaken by other Kyoto parties. The numerical results confirm fears by Canadian policymakers of substantial economic adjustment costs should Canada fulfill its Kyoto commitments solely through domestic action. However, a rigorous use of the project-based CDM on top of international emissions trading could allow Canada to live up to its international climate policy commitment at politically much more tolerable costs.

We show that those Chinese listed companies that are riding high on the media corporate social responsibility (CSR) ranking lists tend to have greater advertising (sales) expenses and poor environmental performance. This observation suggests that some companies opportunistically use media to greenwash their image, hoping to capture economic rents. Indeed, our evidence shows that greenwashing firms benefit in the lending market by exploiting the media to gain a kind of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) endorsement, thereby allowing them to achieve a lower cost of debt and to experience lower collateral obligations. The evidence suggests an adverse incentive to exploit ESG awareness via media coverage in weak institutional environments and opaque ESG disclosure regimes.

China is now confronting the intertwined challenges of air pollution and climate change. Given the high synergies between air pollution abatement and climate change mitigation, the Chinese government is actively promoting synergetic control of these two issues. The Synergetic Roadmap project was launched in 2021 to track and analyze the progress of synergetic control in China by developing and monitoring key indicators. The Synergetic Roadmap 2022 report is the first annual update, featuring 20 indicators across five aspects: synergetic governance system and practices, progress in structural transition, air pollution and associated weather-climate interactions, sources, sinks, and mitigation pathway of atmospheric composition, and health impacts and benefits of coordinated control. Compared to the comprehensive review presented in the 2021 report, the Synergetic Roadmap 2022 report places particular emphasis on progress in 2021 with highlights on actions in key sectors and the relevant milestones. These milestones include the proportion of non-fossil power generation capacity surpassing coal-fired capacity for the first time, a decline in the production of crude steel and cement after years of growth, and the surging penetration of electric vehicles. Additionally, in 2022, China issued the first national policy that synergizes abatements of pollution and carbon emissions, marking a new era for China's pollution-carbon co-control. These changes highlight China's efforts to reshape its energy, economic, and transportation structures to meet the demand for synergetic control and sustainable development. Consequently, the country has witnessed a slowdown in carbon emission growth, improved air quality, and increased health benefits in recent years.

It is of important practical significance to reduce NOx emission and CO2 emission in China's cement industry. This paper firstly identifies key factors that influence China's future cement demand, and then uses the Gompertz model to project China's future cement demand and production. Furthermore, the multi-pollutant abatement planning model (MAP) was developed based on the TIMES model to analyze the co-benefits of CO2 and NOx control in China's cement industry. During modeling analysis, three scenarios such as basic as usual scenario (BAU), moderately low carbon scenario (MLC), and radically low carbon scenario (RLC), were built according to different policy constraints and emission control goals. Moreover, the benefits of co-controlling NOx and CO2 emission in China's cement industry have been estimated. Finally, this paper proposes a cost-efficient, green, and low carbon development roadmap for the Chinese cement sector, and puts forwards countermeasures as follows: first, different ministries should enhance communication and coordination about how to promote the co-control of NOx and CO2 in cement industry. Second, co-control technology list should be issued timely for cement industry, and the R&D investment on new technologies and demonstration projects should be increased. Third, the phase-out of old cement capacity needs to be continued at policy level. Fourth, it is important to scientifically evaluate the relevant environmental impact and adverse motivation of ammonia production by NOx removal requirement in cement industry. Keywords: Cement industry, CO2 abatement, NOx reduction, Co-benefit analysis

Decarbonizing the transportation sector emerges as a pivotal step in addressing climate change. In recent years, rapid growth in China’s new energy automotive industry has significantly contributed to transportation decarbonization. However, environmental challenges in producing and recycling electric vehicles (EVs) may limit emission reduction benefits. In this study, we establish a comprehensive life cycle assessment model for vehicles to analyze the gap in air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions between electric vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Based on this model, the environmental benefits of further promoting electric vehicles in China are evaluated. Results reveal that, compared to ICEVs, EVs reduce life cycle emissions of CO2 by 12%, NOx by 69%, and VOCs by 9%. Primary constraints on EVs in emission reduction are traced to raw material and component production, notably lithium batteries. By 2025, under the low carbon EVs policy scenario, widespread EV production and sales could cut lifecycle emissions by 3.55 million tons of CO2, 3,6289 tons of NOx, and 4,315 tons of VOCs. During the driving stage, these indicators contribute 495%, 124%, and 253%, respectively, to total emission reduction throughout the lifecycle. This study conducts a comprehensive lifecycle analysis of greenhouse gases and various air pollutants for Chinese EVs. It integrates the latest market trends, application progress, and policy guidelines into scenario design, identifying key sources and indicators of atmospheric pollution in the EV production chain. The findings offer valuable policy insights into China’s role in the global emission reduction process.

The impacts of the western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) on East and Southeast Asian inland regions are analyzed. Here, based on a stringent TC selecting criterion, robust increase of TC-related inland impacts between 1979 and 2016 over East and Southeast Asian regions have been detected. The storms sustained for 2–9 h longer and penetrated 30–190 km further inland, as revealed from different best track datasets. The most significant increase of the TC inland impacts occurred over Hanoi and South China. The physical mechanism that affects TC-related inland impacts is shortly discussed. First, the increasing TC inland impacts just occur in the WNP region, but it is not a global effect. Second, besides the significant WNP warming effects on the enhanced TC landfall intensity and TC inland impacts, it is suggested that the weakening of the upper-level Asian Pacific teleconnection pattern since 1970s may also play an important role, which may reduce the climatic 200 hPa anti-cyclonic wind flows over the Asian region, weakening the wind shear near the Philippine Sea, and may eventually intensify the TC intensity when the TCs across the basin. Moreover, the TC inland impacts in the warming future are projected based on a high-resolution (20 km) global model according to the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, TC mean landfall intensity will increase by 2 m/s (6%). The stronger storms will sustain 4.9 h (56%) longer and penetrate 92.4 km (50%) farther inland, thereby almost doubling the destructive power delivered to Asian inland regions. More inland locations will therefore be exposed to severe storm–related hazards in the future due to warmer climate. Long-term planning to enhance disaster preparedness and resilience in these regions is called for.

Abstract At present, microplastics (MPs) are a kind of emerging pollutants of concern in the environment, and have a wide and far‐reaching impact on terrestrial ecosystems. This article summarizes the latest research progress of the impact of MPs pollution on the biogeochemical cycle of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), and summarizes the current situation of MPs pollution in agricultural soil. On the basis of summarizing the effects of MPs on soil physicochemical properties, soil microorganisms and soil plants and animals, this article focuses on how soil MPs affect the C and N cycles by changing these factors. MPs can alter organic matter degradation and C and N cycles by changing the soil physicochemical properties, as well as the soil microbial and enzymatic activities. MPs may alter plants' nutrient uptake processes, which in turn affects the ability of plants to photosynthesize and absorb C and N elements. MPs can affect the survival rate, the growth rate and intestinal injury of soil animals, therefore indirectly affecting the soil C and N cycles. At the same time, this article compares the different effects of conventional plastics and biodegradable plastics on soil, and looks forward to the current research deficiencies and the future research directions of ecotoxicology of MPs on C and N cycle.

This study reports the results from a discrete choice experiment conducted in Beijing China. It aims to elicit monetary values for the value of a statistical life (VSL) and the value of a statistical illness (VSI) that can be considered for policy purposes in China, and to examine how different payment regimes influence willingness to pay (WTP) and whether WTP is age-dependent. We find that our estimates are robust between different econometric model specifications and that they are reliable when compared to previous Chinese findings. We find no evidence of any VSL–age relationship but we find that the payment scheme had an effect on the levels of the estimates of the VSL and VSI, and that taking into account the payment regimes when estimating the models improved their performance. However, levels were relatively close and not statistically significantly different for VSL which may suggest that respondents considered both schemes as similar.

Small-scale bio-energy projects have been launched in rural areas of China and are considered as alternatives to fossil-fuel energy. However, energetic and environmental evaluation of these projects has rarely been carried out, though it is necessary for their long-term development. A village-level biomass gasification project provides an example. A hybrid life-cycle assessment (LCA) of its total nonrenewable energy (NE) cost and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is presented in this paper. The results show that the total energy cost for one joule of biomass gas output from the project is 2.93 J, of which 0.89 J is from nonrenewable energy, and the related GHG emission cost is 1.17 × 10−4 g CO2-eq over its designed life cycle of 20 years. To provide equivalent effective calorific value for cooking work, the utilization of one joule of biomass gas will lead to more life cycle NE cost by 0.07 J and more GHG emissions by 8.92 × 10−5 g CO2-eq compared to natural gas taking into consideration of the difference in combustion efficiency and calorific value. The small-scale bio-energy project has fallen into dilemma, i.e., struggling for survival, and for a more successful future development of village-level gasification projects, much effort is needed to tide over the plight of its development, such as high cost and low efficiency caused by decentralized construction, technical shortcomings and low utilization rate of by-products.

China has pledged to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and neutralize emissions by 2060. There is an urgent need to develop a comprehensive and reliable methodology to judge whether a region has reached its carbon emissions peak (CEP), as well as to schedule and prioritize mitigation activities for different regions. In this study, we developed an approach for identifying the CEP status of 30 provincial areas in China, considering both the carbon emissions trends and the main socioeconomic factors that influence these trends. According to the results of the Mann-Kendall (MK) tests, changes in carbon emissions for the 30 provincial areas can be grouped into four clusters: those with significant reductions, marginal reductions, marginal increases, and significant increases. Then, total energy consumption (TEC), the proportion of coal consumption (PCC), the proportion of the urban population (PUP), the proportion of secondary industry (PASP), and per capita GDP (PGDP) were further identified as the main factors influencing carbon emissions, by applying Redundancy analysis (RDA) and Monte Carlo permutation tests. To balance efficacy with fairness, we assigned scores from 1 to 4 to trends in carbon emissions, and the Group Analysis results of the main influencing factors above except for TEC; for TEC, main basis is the relevant assessment results. And finally, according to the actual condition of total scores, provincial areas were assigned to the first, second, third and fourth stage of progress toward CEP, using the method of Natural Breaks (Jenks). Based on the method, differentiated plans should be adopted from the perspective of fair development and emissions reduction efficiency, in accordance with the basic principles of Doing the Best within Capacity and Common but Differentiated Responsibilities. This classification method can also be adopted by other developing countries which have not yet achieved CEP.

The new energy vehicles (NEVs) have gradually become the trend of the world automobile industry due to its energy-saving and environment-friendly features. The developed countries have increased the investment in R&D and the promotion of NEVs, and the sales of NEVs have already accounted for a considerable market share. In China, however, the market share of NEVs is still small; and the marketing promotion of NEVs is facing various difficulties. Then, a question arises naturally: What are the most important influencing factors for Chinese consumers to decide whether to buy a NEV or not? In order to answer this question, we conduct an empirical research on the basis of a large sample survey influencing factors. The results show that the five factors, namely, intrinsic essence of the products, government policy stimulation, cost, reference group, and symbolic factor of the products could notably affect the private purchase of NEVs, among which, intrinsic essence of the products and cost are the most important, while the effect of government policy stimulation is moderate and the other two factors have low impact on the purchase of NEVs. We have also analyzed the reasons and raised corresponding policy suggestions and proposals from the perspectives of both government and enterprises.

A new hybrid preference framework of the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) is proposed which allows decision makers (DMs) having both unknown preference and fuzzy preference to be taken into account in conflict modeling and analysis. The novel hybrid preference structure provides DMs with a more flexible technique to express preference. It is capable of covering the unknown preference of one feasible state over another, as well as fuzzy preference. Moreover, within the new hybrid preference structure, four extension forms of unknown preference are defined for different fuzzy stability definitions. These stability definitions under the new hybrid preference can be employed to thoroughly investigate complex conflicts existing in practical applications, and can offer enhanced strategic insights regarding the conflicts. A specific real-world water diversion conflict occurring in China, which includes multiple DMs and hybrid preference, is utilized to investigate how the new hybrid preference framework of the GMCR can be conveniently applied in practice.

Electrochemical nitrate reduction to ammonia ( e -NO 3 RR) offers a promising and sustainable alternative to the traditional Haber–Bosch process, enabling decentralized ammonia production under ambient conditions. However, the efficiency of e -NO 3 RR is limited by the sluggish reaction kinetics due to the high activation energy barriers, poor mass transport, and the weaker adsorption affinity of the catalyst surface. In this study, we report the design and synthesis of a stable three-dimensional cobalt-based metal–organic framework (HUST-38), constructed from benzene-1,4-dicarboxylate ligand and DABCO, featuring water coordination within its framework. Impressively, the as-prepared HUST-38 delivers a high NH 3 Faradaic efficiency of 95.7% and a high NH 3 yield rate of 13.38 mg h –1 mg cat –1 at −0.6 V vs RHE, significantly outperforming the control sample of HUST-39 (3.98 mg h –1 mg cat –1, nonwater coordination) and the mostly reported single-site solid electrocatalysts. Various in situ measurements disclose that the labile solvent coordination in HUST-38 promotes water molecule accessibility to the catalytically active metal centers, hence augmenting localized *H enrichment and enhancing NO 3 – reduction. The theoretical calculations further substantiate the essential function of metal coordination microenvironments in modulating the electrocatalytic process, specifically by reducing free energy barriers associated with key reaction intermediates and enhancing the adsorption and desorption kinetics of reactants and products, ultimately leading to improved electrocatalytic activity and efficiency. The present work provides a foundation for the structural design of metal organic frameworks to develop efficient electrocatalysts.

Abstract. Dust plumes emitted from the narrow Arabian Red Sea coastal plain are often observed on satellite images and felt in local population centers. Despite its relatively small area, the coastal plain could be a significant dust source; however, its effect is not well quantified as it is not well approximated in global or even regional models. In addition, because of close proximity to the Red Sea, a significant amount of dust from the coastal areas could be deposited into the Red Sea and serve as a vital component of the nutrient balance of marine ecosystems.In the current study, we apply the offline Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) to better quantify dust emission from the coastal plain during the period of 2009–2011. We verify the spatial and temporal variability in model results using independent weather station reports. We also compare the results with the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero). We show that the best results are obtained with 1 km model spatial resolution and dust source function based on Meteosat Second Generation Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) measurements. We present the dust emission spatial pattern, as well as estimates of seasonal and diurnal variability in dust event frequency and intensity, and discuss the emission regime in the major dust generation hot spot areas. We demonstrate the contrasting seasonal dust cycles in the northern and southern parts of the coastal plain and discuss the physical mechanisms responsible for dust generation.This study provides the first estimates of the fine-scale spatial and temporal distribution of dust emissions from the Arabian Red Sea coastal plain constrained by MERRAero and short-term WRF-Chem simulations. The estimate of total dust emission from the coastal plain, tuned to fit emissions in MERRAero, is 7.5 ± 0.5 Mt a−1. Small interannual variability indicates that the study area is a stable dust source. The mineralogical composition analysis shows that the coastal plain generates around 76 ± 5 kt of iron oxides and 6 ± 0.4 kt of phosphorus annually. Over 65 % of dust is emitted from the northern part of the coastal plain.

To evaluate the seasonal and spatial variations of methane (CH4) emissions and understand the controlling factors, we measured CH4 fluxes and their environmental variables for the first time by a static chamber technique in high Suaeda salsa marsh (HSM), middle S. salsa marsh (MSM), low S. salsa marsh (LSM) and bare flat (BF) in the northern Yellow River estuary throughout a year. CH4 emissions from coastal marsh varied throughout different times of the day and significant differences were observed in some sampling periods (p < 0.05). Over all sampling periods, CH4 fluxes averaged between −0.392 mgCH4 m−2 h−1 and 0.495 mgCH4 m−2 h−1, and emissions occurred during spring (0.008 mgCH4 m−2 h−1) and autumn (0.068 mgCH4 m−2 h−1) while sinks were observed during summer (−0.110 mgCH4 m−2 h−1) and winter (−0.009 mgCH4 m−2 h−1). CH4 fluxes from the four marshes were not significantly different (p > 0.05), and emissions occurred in LSM (0.026 mgCH4 m−2 h−1) and BF (0.055 mgCH4 m−2 h−1) while sinks were observed in HSM (−0.035 mgCH4 m−2 h−1) and MSM (−0.022 mgCH4 m−2 h−1). The annual average CH4 flux from the intertidal zone was 0.002 mgCH4 m−2 h−1, indicating that coastal marsh acted as a weak CH4 source. Temporal variations of CH4 emission were related to the interactions of abiotic factors (temperatures, soil moisture and salinity) and the variations of limited C and mineral N in sediments, while spatial variations were mainly affected by the vegetation composition at spatial scale. This study observed a large spatial variation of CH4 fluxes across the coastal marsh of the Yellow River estuary (CV = 7856.25 %), suggesting that the need to increase the spatial replicates at fine scales before the regional CH4 budget was evaluated precisely. With increasing exogenous nitrogen loading to the Yellow River estuary, the magnitude of CH4 emission might be enhanced, which should also be paid more attentions as the annual CH4 inventory was assessed accurately.