Regional Health

International audience

BACKGROUND: Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages. METHODS: We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000-16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016. FINDINGS: In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475-720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749-1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584-2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445-1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7-69·6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Doctors within the NHS are confronting major changes at work. While we endeavour to improve the quality of health care, junior doctors' hours have been reduced and the emphasis on continuing medical education has increased. We are confronted by a growing body of information, much of it invalid or irrelevant to clinical practice. This article discusses evidence based medicine, a process of turning clinical problems into questions and then systematically locating, appraising, and using contemporaneous research findings as the basis for clinical decisions. The computerisation of bibliographies and the development of software that permits the rapid location of relevant evidence have made it easier for busy clinicians to make best use of the published literature. Critical appraisal can be used to determine the validity and applicability of the evidence, which is then used to inform clinical decisions. Evidence based medicine can be taught to, and practised by, clinicians at all levels of seniority and can be used to close the gulf between good clinical research and clinical practice. In addition it can help to promote self directed learning and teamwork and produce faster and better doctors.

Cardiac amyloidosis is a serious and progressive infiltrative disease that is caused by the deposition of amyloid fibrils at the cardiac level. It can be due to rare genetic variants in the hereditary forms or as a consequence of acquired conditions. Thanks to advances in imaging techniques and the possibility of achieving a non-invasive diagnosis, we now know that cardiac amyloidosis is a more frequent disease than traditionally considered. In this position paper the Working Group on Myocardial and Pericardial Disease proposes an invasive and non-invasive definition of cardiac amyloidosis, addresses clinical scenarios and situations to suspect the condition and proposes a diagnostic algorithm to aid diagnosis. Furthermore, we also review how to monitor and treat cardiac amyloidosis, in an attempt to bridge the gap between the latest advances in the field and clinical practice.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Evidence suggests that, to maintain treatment effects, nasal continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) needs to be used every night. What remains unknown is the nightly duration of use required to normalize functioning. This study, employing probit analyses and piecewise regression to estimate dose-response functions, estimated likelihoods of return to normal levels of sleepiness and daily functioning relative to nightly duration of CPAP. DESIGN: Multicenter, quasi-experimental study. SETTING: Seven sleep centers in the United States and Canada. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with severe OSA (total cohort n = 149; the numbers of included participants from 85 - 120, depending on outcome analyzed.) INTERVENTIONS: CPAP. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Before treatment and again after 3 months of therapy, participants completed a day of testing that included measures of objective and subjective daytime sleepiness and functional status. There were significant differences in mean nightly CPAP duration between treatment responders and nonresponders across outcomes. Thresholds above which further improvements were less likely relative to nightly duration of CPAP were identified for Epworth Sleepiness Scale score (4 hours), Multiple Sleep Latency Test (6 hours), and Functional Outcomes associated with Sleepiness Questionnaire (7.5 hours). A linear dose-response relationship (P < 0.01) between increased use and achieving normal levels was shown for objective and subjective daytime sleepiness, but only up to 7 hours use for functional status. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses suggest that a greater percentage of patients will achieve normal functioning with longer nightly CPAP durations, but what constitutes adequate use varies between different outcomes.

A revised and refined version of the O'Carroll et al. (1996) nomenclature for suicidology is presented, with a focus on suicide‐related ideations, communications, and behaviors. The hope is that this refinement will result in the development of operational definitions and field testing of this nomenclature in clinical and research settings. This revision would not have been possible without the international collaboration and dialogue addressing the nomenclature of suicidology since the O'Carroll et al. nomenclature appeared in 1996. Although it is doubtful that we will ever be able to construct universally unambiguous criteria to comprehensively characterize suicidal behaviors (and, overall, firmly establish the intention behind them), for scientific clarity it would be highly desirable that the set of definitions and the associated terminology be explicit and generalizable. De Leo, Burgis, Bertolote, Kerkhof, &amp; Bille‐Brahe, 2006 , p. 5)

The development of the Delphi technique, as a survey method of research, and examples of its use are described. The technique's key characteristics, anonymity, use of experts and controlled feedback, are examined. The method's usefulness in structuring group communication for the discussion of specific issues and as an aid to policy making is discussed in the light of the technique's perceived drawbacks and limitations.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies show that high temperatures are related to mortality, but little is known about the exposure-response function and the lagged effect of heat. We report the associations between daily maximum apparent temperature and daily deaths during the warm season in 15 European cities. METHODS: The city-specific analyses were based on generalized estimating equations and the city-specific results were combined in a Bayesian random effects meta-analysis. We specified distributed lag models in studying the delayed effect of exposure. Time-varying coefficient models were used to check the assumption of a constant heat effect over the warm season. RESULTS: The city-specific exposure-response functions have a V shape, with a change-point that varied among cities. The meta-analytic estimate of the threshold was 29.4 degrees C for Mediterranean cities and 23.3 degrees C for north-continental cities. The estimated overall change in all natural mortality associated with a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above the city-specific threshold was 3.12% (95% credibility interval = 0.60% to 5.72%) in the Mediterranean region and 1.84% (0.06% to 3.64%) in the north-continental region. Stronger associations were found between heat and mortality from respiratory diseases, and with mortality in the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: There is an important mortality effect of heat across Europe. The effect is evident from June through August; it is limited to the first week following temperature excess, with evidence of mortality displacement. There is some suggestion of a higher effect of early season exposures. Acclimatization and individual susceptibility need further investigation as possible explanations for the observed heterogeneity among cities.

The ability of engineered cerium oxide nanoparticles to confer radioprotection was examined. Human normal and tumor cells were treated with nanoceria and irradiated, and cell survival was measured. Treatment of normal cells conferred almost 99% protection from radiation-induced cell death, whereas the same concentration showed almost no protection of tumor cells. For the first time, nanoceria is shown to confer radioprotection to a normal human breast line but not to a human breast tumor line, MCF-7.

The B-Lynch suturing technique (brace suture) may be particularly useful because of its simplicity of application, life saving potential, relative safety, and its capacity for preserving the uterus and thus fertility. Satisfactory haemostasis can be assessed immediately after application. If it fails, which has not yet been the case, other more radical surgical methods as mentioned in this paper and in the literature can be considered. The special advantage of this innovative technique is an alternative to major surgical procedures to control pelvic arterial pulse pressure or hysterectomy. This suturing technique has been successfully applied with no problems to date and no apparent complications.

Alzheimer disease (AD) is the most common dementing illness in the elderly, but there is equivocal evidence regarding the frequency of other disorders such as Lewy body disease (LBD), vascular dementia (VaD), frontotemporal dementia (FTD), and hippocampal sclerosis (HS). This ambiguity may be related to factors such as the age and gender of subjects with dementia. Therefore, the objective of this study was to calculate the relative frequencies of AD, LBD, VaD, FTD, and HS among 382 subjects with dementia from the State of Florida Brain Bank and to study the effect of age and gender on these frequencies. AD was the most frequent pathologic finding (77%), followed by LBD (26%), VaD (18%), HS (13%), and FTD (5%). Mixed pathology was common: Concomitant AD was present in 66% of LBD patients, 77% of VaD patients, and 66% of HS patients. The relative frequency of VaD increased with age, whereas the relative frequencies of FTD and LBD declined with age. Males were overrepresented among those with LBD, whereas females were overrepresented among AD subjects with onset age over 70 years. These estimates of the a priori probabilities of dementing disorders have implications for clinicians and researchers.

BACKGROUND: The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. METHODS: Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. RESULTS: The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

AIMS: Persons with high intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) have lower cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The protective effect of PUFAs is mediated by multiple mechanisms, including their antiinflammatory properties. The association of physiological PUFA levels with pro- and antiinflammatory markers has not been established. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 1123 persons (aged 20-98 yr), we examined the relationship between relative concentration of fatty acids in fasting plasma and level of inflammatory markers. Adjusting for age, sex, and major confounders, lower arachidonic and docosahexaenoic acids were associated with significantly higher IL-6 and IL-1ra and significantly lower TGFbeta. Lower alpha-linolenic acid was associated with higher C-reactive protein and IL-1ra, and lower eicosapentaenoic acid was associated with higher IL-6 and lower TGFbeta. Lower docosahexaenoic acid was strongly associated with lower IL-10. Total n-3 fatty acids were associated with lower IL-6 (P = 0.005), IL-1ra (P = 0.004), and TNFalpha (P = 0.040) and higher soluble IL-6r (P < 0.001), IL-10 (P = 0.024), and TGFbeta (P = 0.0012). Lower n-6 fatty acid levels were significantly associated with higher IL-1ra (P = 0.026) and lower TGFbeta (P = 0.014). The n-6 to n-3 ratio was a strong, negative correlate of IL-10. Findings were similar in participants free of cardiovascular diseases and after excluding lipids from covariates. CONCLUSIONS: In this community-based sample, PUFAs, and especially total n-3 fatty acids, were independently associated with lower levels of proinflammatory markers (IL-6, IL-1ra, TNFalpha, C-reactive protein) and higher levels of antiinflammatory markers (soluble IL-6r, IL-10, TGFbeta) independent of confounders. Our findings support the notion that n-3 fatty acids may be beneficial in patients affected by diseases characterized by active inflammation.

BACKGROUND: Studies have examined the effects of temperature on mortality in a single city, country, or region. However, less evidence is available on the variation in the associations between temperature and mortality in multiple countries, analyzed simultaneously. METHODS: We obtained daily data on temperature and mortality in 306 communities from 12 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Thailand, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada). Two-stage analyses were used to assess the nonlinear and delayed relation between temperature and mortality. In the first stage, a Poisson regression allowing overdispersion with distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the community-specific temperature-mortality relation. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was used to pool the nonlinear and delayed effects of ambient temperature at the national level, in each country. RESULTS: The temperatures associated with the lowest mortality were around the 75th percentile of temperature in all the countries/regions, ranging from 66th (Taiwan) to 80th (UK) percentiles. The estimated effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality varied by community and country. Meta-analysis results show that both cold and hot temperatures increased the risk of mortality in all the countries/regions. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for many days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long. CONCLUSIONS: People have some ability to adapt to their local climate type, but both cold and hot temperatures are still associated with increased risk of mortality. Public health strategies to alleviate the impact of ambient temperatures are important, in particular in the context of climate change.

The aging process is often paralleled by decreases in muscle and increases in fat mass. At the extreme these two processes lead to a condition known as "sarcopenic obesity" (Roubenoff R. Ann NY Acad Sci 904: 553-557, 2000). Research suggests that inflammatory cytokines produced by adipose tissue, especially visceral fat, accelerate muscle catabolism and thus contribute to the vicious cycle that initiates and sustains sarcopenic obesity. We tested the hypothesis that obesity and poor muscle strength, hallmarks of sarcopenic obesity, are associated with high circulating levels of proinflammatory cytokines in a random sample of the residents of two municipalities in the Chianti geographic area (Tuscany, Italy). The study sample consisted of 378 men and 493 women 65 yr and older with complete data on anthropometrics, handgrip strength, and inflammatory markers. Participants were cross-classified according to sex-specific tertiles of waist circumference and grip strength and according to a cut point for obesity of body mass index > or =30 kg/m(2). After adjusting for age, sex, education, smoking history, physical activity, and history of comorbid diseases, components of sarcopenic obesity were associated with elevated levels of IL-6, C-reactive protein, IL-1 receptor antagonist, and soluble IL-6 receptor (P < 0.05). Our findings suggest that global obesity and, to a greater extent, central obesity directly affect inflammation, which in turn negatively affects muscle strength, contributing to the development and progression of sarcopenic obesity. These results suggest that proinflammatory cytokines may be critical in both the development and progression of sarcopenic obesity.

Since the publication of the O'Carroll et al. (1996) nomenclature for suicidology, there have been a number of published letters and articles, as well as an active e‐mail dialogue, in response to, and elaborating upon, this effort to establish a standard nomenclature for suicidology. This new nomenclature has been presented on a number of occasions at both national and international meetings. In this paper we provide the background, rationale, and methodology involved in the process of revising the O'Carroll et al. nomenclature, based on the feedback and discussions that have ensued over the past 10 years. Those who have written and studied the phenomenon of suicide have not defined the term so simply … how the word is defined has implications and large effects for statistics that are compiled on the official number of suicides, and for researchers, so that there is clear communication regarding what and who is being studied. Among writers in the field of suicidology there is no single common accepted definition … the term suicide refers not to a single action but more broadly to a great many varied behaviors. For example, one can speak of suicidal thoughts, intentions, ideation, gestures, attempts, completions, equivalents. Thus far, no single term, definition, or taxonomy has served to sufficiently represent the complex set of behaviors that have been suggested as suicidal. A standard set of terms and definitions are greatly needed to advance the science of suicidology and aid communication and understanding of the field. McIntosh (1985 , pp. 18–19)

RATIONALE: Episode analyses of heat waves have documented a comparatively higher impact on mortality than on morbidity (hospital admissions) in European cities. The evidence from daily time series studies is scarce and inconsistent. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of high environmental temperatures on hospital admissions during April to September in 12 European cities participating in the Assessment and Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe (PHEWE) project. METHODS: For each city, time series analysis was used to model the relationship between maximum apparent temperature (lag 0-3 days) and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory causes by age (all ages, 65-74 age group, and 75+ age group), and the city-specific estimates were pooled for two geographical groupings of cities. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: For respiratory admissions, there was a positive association that was heterogeneous between cities. For a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above a threshold, respiratory admissions increased by +4.5% (95% confidence interval, 1.9-7.3) and +3.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-5.5) in the 75+ age group in Mediterranean and North-Continental cities, respectively. In contrast, the association between temperature and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular admissions tended to be negative and did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: High temperatures have a specific impact on respiratory admissions, particularly in the elderly population, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Why high temperature increases cardiovascular mortality but not cardiovascular admissions is also unclear. The impact of extreme heat events on respiratory admissions is expected to increase in European cities as a result of global warming and progressive population aging.

Erik Hollnagel, University of Southern DenmarkSafety has traditionally been defined as a condition where the number of adverse outcomes was as low as possible (Safety-I). From a Safety-I perspective, the purpose of safety management is to make sure that the number of accidents and incidents is kept as low as possible, or as low as is reasonably practicable. This means that safety management must start from the manifestations of the absence of safety and that-paradoxically-safety is measured by counting the number of cases where it fails rather than by the number of cases where it succeeds. This unavoidably leads to a reactive approach based on responding to what goes wrong or what is identified as a risk-as something that could go wrong. Focusing on what goes right, rather than on what goes wrong, changes the definition of safety from ‘avoiding that something goes wrong’ to ‘ensuring that everything goes right’. More precisely, Safety-II is the ability to succeed under varying conditions, so that the number of intended and acceptable outcomes is as high as possible. From a Safety-II perspective, the purpose of safety management is to ensure that as much as possible goes right, in the sense that everyday work achieves its objectives. This means that safety is managed by what it achieves (successes, things that go right), and that likewise it is measured by counting the number of cases where things go right. In order to do this, safety management cannot only be reactive, it must also be proactive. But it must be proactive with regard to how actions succeed, to everyday acceptable performance, rather than with regard to how they can fail, as traditional risk analysis does. This book analyses and explains the principles behind both approaches and uses this to consider the past and future of safety management practices. The analysis makes use of common examples and cases from domains such as aviation, nuclear power production, process management and health care. The final chapters explain the theoretical and practical consequences of the new perspective on the level of day-to-day operations as well as on the level of strategic management (safety culture). Safety-I and Safety-II is written for all professionals responsible for their organisation's safety, from strategic planning on the executive level to day-to-day operations in the field. It presents the detailed and tested arguments for a transformation from protective to productive safety management.

This guidance paper from the European Psychiatric Association (EPA) aims to provide evidence-based recommendations on early intervention in clinical high risk (CHR) states of psychosis, assessed according to the EPA guidance on early detection. The recommendations were derived from a meta-analysis of current empirical evidence on the efficacy of psychological and pharmacological interventions in CHR samples. Eligible studies had to investigate conversion rate and/or functioning as a treatment outcome in CHR patients defined by the ultra-high risk and/or basic symptom criteria. Besides analyses on treatment effects on conversion rate and functional outcome, age and type of intervention were examined as potential moderators. Based on data from 15 studies (n=1394), early intervention generally produced significantly reduced conversion rates at 6- to 48-month follow-up compared to control conditions. However, early intervention failed to achieve significantly greater functional improvements because both early intervention and control conditions produced similar positive effects. With regard to the type of intervention, both psychological and pharmacological interventions produced significant effects on conversion rates, but not on functional outcome relative to the control conditions. Early intervention in youth samples was generally less effective than in predominantly adult samples. Seven evidence-based recommendations for early intervention in CHR samples could have been formulated, although more studies are needed to investigate the specificity of treatment effects and potential age effects in order to tailor interventions to the individual treatment needs and risk status.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the risks of hospitalisation for bleeding peptic ulcer with the current prophylactic aspirin regimens of 300 mg daily or less. DESIGN: A case-control study with hospital and community controls. SETTING: Hospitals in Glasgow, Newcastle, Nottingham, Oxford, and Portsmouth. SUBJECTS: 1121 patients with gastric or duodenal ulcer bleeding matched with hospital and community controls. RESULTS: 144 (12.8%) cases had been regular users of aspirin (taken at least five days a week for at least the previous month) compared with 101 (9.0%) hospital and 77 (7.8%) community controls. Odds ratios were raised for all doses of aspirin taken, whether compared with hospital or community controls (compared with combined controls: 75 mg, 2.3 (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 4.4); 150 mg, 3.2 (1.7 to 6.5); 300 mg, 3.9 (2.5 to 6.3)). Results were not explained by confounding influences of age, sex, prior ulcer history or dyspepsia, or concurrent non-aspirin non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use. Risks seemed particularly high in patients who took non-aspirin non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs concurrently. CONCLUSION: No conventionally used prophylactic aspirin regimen seems free of the risk of peptic ulcer complications.