Royal Edinburgh Hospital

Major depression is a debilitating psychiatric illness that is typically associated with low mood and anhedonia. Depression has a heritable component that has remained difficult to elucidate with current sample sizes due to the polygenic nature of the disorder. To maximize sample size, we meta-analyzed data on 807,553 individuals (246,363 cases and 561,190 controls) from the three largest genome-wide association studies of depression. We identified 102 independent variants, 269 genes, and 15 genesets associated with depression, including both genes and gene pathways associated with synaptic structure and neurotransmission. An enrichment analysis provided further evidence of the importance of prefrontal brain regions. In an independent replication sample of 1,306,354 individuals (414,055 cases and 892,299 controls), 87 of the 102 associated variants were significant after multiple testing correction. These findings advance our understanding of the complex genetic architecture of depression and provide several future avenues for understanding etiology and developing new treatment approaches.

The neuro-anatomical substrates of major depressive disorder (MDD) are still not well understood, despite many neuroimaging studies over the past few decades. Here we present the largest ever worldwide study by the ENIGMA (Enhancing Neuro Imaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis) Major Depressive Disorder Working Group on cortical structural alterations in MDD. Structural T1-weighted brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans from 2148 MDD patients and 7957 healthy controls were analysed with harmonized protocols at 20 sites around the world. To detect consistent effects of MDD and its modulators on cortical thickness and surface area estimates derived from MRI, statistical effects from sites were meta-analysed separately for adults and adolescents. Adults with MDD had thinner cortical gray matter than controls in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), anterior and posterior cingulate, insula and temporal lobes (Cohen's d effect sizes: -0.10 to -0.14). These effects were most pronounced in first episode and adult-onset patients (>21 years). Compared to matched controls, adolescents with MDD had lower total surface area (but no differences in cortical thickness) and regional reductions in frontal regions (medial OFC and superior frontal gyrus) and primary and higher-order visual, somatosensory and motor areas (d: -0.26 to -0.57). The strongest effects were found in recurrent adolescent patients. This highly powered global effort to identify consistent brain abnormalities showed widespread cortical alterations in MDD patients as compared to controls and suggests that MDD may impact brain structure in a highly dynamic way, with different patterns of alterations at different stages of life.

INTRODUCTION: Age-associated cognitive decline-or normal (non-pathological, normative, usual) cognitive ageing-is an important human experience which differs in extent between individuals. The determinants of the differences in age-related cognitive decline are not fully understood. Progress in the field is taking place across many areas of biomedical and psychosocial sciences. AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND CONTROVERSY: The phenotype of normal cognitive ageing is well described. Some mental capabilities are well maintained into old age. From early adulthood, there are declines in mental domains such as processing speed, reasoning, memory and executive functions, some of which is underpinned by a decline in a general cognitive factor. There are contributions to understanding individual differences in normal cognitive ageing from genetics, general health and medical disorders such as atherosclerotic disease, biological processes such as inflammation, neurobiological changes, diet and lifestyle. Many of these effect sizes are small; some are poorly replicated; and in some cases, there is the possibility of reverse causation, with prior cognitive ability causing the supposed 'cause' of cognitive ability in old age. EMERGING AREAS FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH: Genome-wide scans are a likely source to establish genetic contributions. The role of vascular factors in cognitive ageing is increasingly studied and understood. The same applies to diet, biomarkers such as inflammation and lifestyle factors such as exercise. There are marked advances in brain imaging, affording better in vivo studies of brain correlates of cognitive changes. There is growing appreciation that factors affecting general bodily ageing also influence cognitive functions in old age.

The contribution of rare and low-frequency variants to human traits is largely unexplored. Here we describe insights from sequencing whole genomes (low read depth, 7×) or exomes (high read depth, 80×) of nearly 10,000 individuals from population-based and disease collections. In extensively phenotyped cohorts we characterize over 24 million novel sequence variants, generate a highly accurate imputation reference panel and identify novel alleles associated with levels of triglycerides (APOB), adiponectin (ADIPOQ) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLR and RGAG1) from single-marker and rare variant aggregation tests. We describe population structure and functional annotation of rare and low-frequency variants, use the data to estimate the benefits of sequencing for association studies, and summarize lessons from disease-specific collections. Finally, we make available an extensive resource, including individual-level genetic and phenotypic data and web-based tools to facilitate the exploration of association results. Low read depth sequencing of whole genomes and high read depth exomes of nearly 10,000 extensively phenotyped individuals are combined to help characterize novel sequence variants, generate a highly accurate imputation reference panel and identify novel alleles associated with lipid-related traits; in addition to describing population structure and providing functional annotation of rare and low-frequency variants the authors use the data to estimate the benefits of sequencing for association studies. This paper, combining data and initial findings from the different arms of the UK10K project, describes insights from low-read-depth sequencing of whole genomes or high-read-depth exome sequencing of nearly 10,000 individuals sampled from a range of disease collections, as well as participants from healthy population based cohorts. The authors characterize novel sequence variants, generate a highly accurate imputation reference panel and identify novel alleles associated with lipid-related traits. In addition to describing population structure and providing functional annotation of rare and low frequency variants, they use the data to estimate the benefits of sequencing for association studies.

Computer linkage of an obstetric register and a psychiatric case register made it possible to investigate the temporal relationship between childbirth and psychiatric contact in a population of 470 000 people over a 12-year period: 54 087 births resulted in 120 psychiatric admissions within 90 days of parturition [corrected]. The 'relative risk' of admission to a psychiatric hospital with a psychotic illness was extremely high in the first 30 days after childbirth, particularly in primiparae, suggesting that metabolic factors are involved in the genesis of puerperal psychoses. However, being unmarried, having a first baby, Caesarian section and perinatal death were all associated with an increased risk of psychiatric admission or contact, or both, suggesting that psychological stresses also contribute to this high psychiatric morbidity. Women with a history of manic depressive illness, manic or depressive, had a much higher risk of psychiatric admission in the puerperium than those with a history of schizophrenia or depressive neuroses, and the majority of puerperal admissions met Research Diagnostic Criteria for manic or depressive disorder. Probably, therefore, puerperal psychoses are manic depressive illnesses and unrelated to schizophrenia.

BACKGROUND: Depression is a common and important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Depression is commonly treated with antidepressants and/or psychological therapy, but some people may prefer alternative approaches such as exercise. There are a number of theoretical reasons why exercise may improve depression. This is an update of an earlier review first published in 2009. OBJECTIVES: To determine the effectiveness of exercise in the treatment of depression in adults compared with no treatment or a comparator intervention. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Depression, Anxiety and Neurosis Review Group's Controlled Trials Register (CCDANCTR) to 13 July 2012. This register includes relevant randomised controlled trials from the following bibliographic databases: The Cochrane Library (all years); MEDLINE (1950 to date); EMBASE (1974 to date) and PsycINFO (1967 to date). We also searched www.controlled-trials.com, ClinicalTrials.gov and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. No date or language restrictions were applied to the search.We conducted an additional search of the CCDANCTR up to 1st March 2013 and any potentially eligible trials not already included are listed as 'awaiting classification.' SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials in which exercise (defined according to American College of Sports Medicine criteria) was compared to standard treatment, no treatment or a placebo treatment, pharmacological treatment, psychological treatment or other active treatment in adults (aged 18 and over) with depression, as defined by trial authors. We included cluster trials and those that randomised individuals. We excluded trials of postnatal depression. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors extracted data on primary and secondary outcomes at the end of the trial and end of follow-up (if available). We calculated effect sizes for each trial using Hedges' g method and a standardised mean difference (SMD) for the overall pooled effect, using a random-effects model risk ratio for dichotomous data. Where trials used a number of different tools to assess depression, we included the main outcome measure only in the meta-analysis. Where trials provided several 'doses' of exercise, we used data from the biggest 'dose' of exercise, and performed sensitivity analyses using the lower 'dose'. We performed subgroup analyses to explore the influence of method of diagnosis of depression (diagnostic interview or cut-off point on scale), intensity of exercise and the number of sessions of exercise on effect sizes. Two authors performed the 'Risk of bias' assessments. Our sensitivity analyses explored the influence of study quality on outcome. MAIN RESULTS: Thirty-nine trials (2326 participants) fulfilled our inclusion criteria, of which 37 provided data for meta-analyses. There were multiple sources of bias in many of the trials; randomisation was adequately concealed in 14 studies, 15 used intention-to-treat analyses and 12 used blinded outcome assessors.For the 35 trials (1356 participants) comparing exercise with no treatment or a control intervention, the pooled SMD for the primary outcome of depression at the end of treatment was -0.62 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.81 to -0.42), indicating a moderate clinical effect. There was moderate heterogeneity (I² = 63%).When we included only the six trials (464 participants) with adequate allocation concealment, intention-to-treat analysis and blinded outcome assessment, the pooled SMD for this outcome was not statistically significant (-0.18, 95% CI -0.47 to 0.11). Pooled data from the eight trials (377 participants) providing long-term follow-up data on mood found a small effect in favour of exercise (SMD -0.33, 95% CI -0.63 to -0.03).Twenty-nine trials reported acceptability of treatment, three trials reported quality of life, none reported cost, and six reported adverse events.For acceptability of treatment (assessed by number of drop-outs during the intervention), the risk ratio was 1.00 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.04).Seven trials compared exercise with psychological therapy (189 participants), and found no significant difference (SMD -0.03, 95% CI -0.32 to 0.26). Four trials (n = 300) compared exercise with pharmacological treatment and found no significant difference (SMD -0.11, -0.34, 0.12). One trial (n = 18) reported that exercise was more effective than bright light therapy (MD -6.40, 95% CI -10.20 to -2.60).For each trial that was included, two authors independently assessed for sources of bias in accordance with the Cochrane Collaboration 'Risk of bias' tool. In exercise trials, there are inherent difficulties in blinding both those receiving the intervention and those delivering the intervention. Many trials used participant self-report rating scales as a method for post-intervention analysis, which also has the potential to bias findings. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Exercise is moderately more effective than a control intervention for reducing symptoms of depression, but analysis of methodologically robust trials only shows a smaller effect in favour of exercise. When compared to psychological or pharmacological therapies, exercise appears to be no more effective, though this conclusion is based on a few small trials.

The Enhancing NeuroImaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis (ENIGMA) Consortium is a collaborative network of researchers working together on a range of large-scale studies that integrate data from 70 institutions worldwide. Organized into Working Groups that tackle questions in neuroscience, genetics, and medicine, ENIGMA studies have analyzed neuroimaging data from over 12,826 subjects. In addition, data from 12,171 individuals were provided by the CHARGE consortium for replication of findings, in a total of 24,997 subjects. By meta-analyzing results from many sites, ENIGMA has detected factors that affect the brain that no individual site could detect on its own, and that require larger numbers of subjects than any individual neuroimaging study has currently collected. ENIGMA's first project was a genome-wide association study identifying common variants in the genome associated with hippocampal volume or intracranial volume. Continuing work is exploring genetic associations with subcortical volumes (ENIGMA2) and white matter microstructure (ENIGMA-DTI). Working groups also focus on understanding how schizophrenia, bipolar illness, major depression and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) affect the brain. We review the current progress of the ENIGMA Consortium, along with challenges and unexpected discoveries made on the way.

Fueled by developments in computational neuroscience, there has been increasing interest in the underlying neurocomputational mechanisms of psychosis. One successful approach involves predictive coding and Bayesian inference. Here, inferences regarding the current state of the world are made by combining prior beliefs with incoming sensory signals. Mismatches between prior beliefs and incoming signals constitute prediction errors that drive new learning. Psychosis has been suggested to result from a decreased precision in the encoding of prior beliefs relative to the sensory data, thereby garnering maladaptive inferences. Here, we review the current evidence for aberrant predictive coding and discuss challenges for this canonical predictive coding account of psychosis. For example, hallucinations and delusions may relate to distinct alterations in predictive coding, despite their common co-occurrence. More broadly, some studies implicate weakened prior beliefs in psychosis, and others find stronger priors. These challenges might be answered with a more nuanced view of predictive coding. Different priors may be specified for different sensory modalities and their integration, and deficits in each modality need not be uniform. Furthermore, hierarchical organization may be critical. Altered processes at lower levels of a hierarchy need not be linearly related to processes at higher levels (and vice versa). Finally, canonical theories do not highlight active inference-the process through which the effects of our actions on our sensations are anticipated and minimized. It is possible that conflicting findings might be reconciled by considering these complexities, portending a framework for psychosis more equipped to deal with its many manifestations.

SUMMARY An operational definition of depressive disorder was used to define a group of prepubertal children attending a hospital‐based out‐patient child psychiatry clinic. The construct validity of depressive disorder in childhood was demonstrated by comparing this group with a matched control group on historical and clinical data.

BACKGROUND: Numerous in vivo brain imaging studies suggest that cerebral structure is abnormal in schizophrenia, but implicate different regions to varying extents. METHOD: We identified published MRI studies in schizophrenia with searches of the computerised literature and key journals. Reports giving the volumes of cortical structures in people with schizophrenia and controls were included. The percentage differences in volumes were calculated and the median taken as a summary measure for each brain region. RESULTS: Forty relevant studies were identified. The median percentage volume differences revealed overall reductions in the whole brain (3%), temporal lobe (6% left, 9.5% right), and the amygdala/ hippocampal complex (6.5%, 5.5%); and increases in the lateral ventricles (44%, 36%), that were greatest in the body and occipital horns. Segmentation studies suggest that grey matter is reduced but that white matter volumes may actually be increased. In men, substantial reductions were also evident in the amygdala and hippocampus, as well as the largest reductions of all in the parahippocampus (14%, 9%). Few studies gave figures for women alone. CONCLUSIONS: Several brain structures in schizophrenia are affected to a greater extent than expected from overall reductions in brain volume. Further studies are required in affected women, and to try to identify clinical and aetiological associations of these findings.

This study describes the development and reports the first psychometric results of the European KIDSCREEN-52 generic health-related quality-of-life questionnaire for children and adolescents. The KIDSCREEN-52, including ten dimensions, was applied in a European survey involving 12 countries (i.e., Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Hungary, The Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and the UK) and 22,110 children and adolescents aged between 8 and 18 years of age. Questionnaire development included a literature search, expert consultation, and focus group discussions with children and adolescents. After definition of dimensions and collection of items, a translation process following international translation guidelines, cognitive interviews and a pilot test were performed. Analysis regarding psychometric properties showed Cronbach-alpha ranged from 0.77 to 0.89. Correlation coefficients between KINDL(R) and KIDSCREEN-52 dimensions were high for those assessing similar constructs (r = 0.51-0.68). All KIDSCREEN-52 dimensions showed a gradient according to socioeconomic status and most dimensions showed a gradient according to psychosomatic health complaints. The first results demonstrate that the KIDSCREEN-52 questionnaire is a promising cross-cultural measure of health-related quality-of-life assessment for children and adolescents in Europe.

SCOPUS: re.j

BACKGROUND: To assess the criterion and construct validity of the KIDSCREEN-10 well-being and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) score, a short version of the KIDSCREEN-52 and KIDSCREEN-27 instruments. METHODS: The child self-report and parent report versions of the KIDSCREEN-10 were tested in a sample of 22,830 European children and adolescents aged 8-18 and their parents (n = 16,237). Correlation with the KIDSCREEN-52 and associations with other generic HRQoL measures, physical and mental health, and socioeconomic status were examined. Score differences by age, gender, and country were investigated. RESULTS: Correlations between the 10-item KIDSCREEN score and KIDSCREEN-52 scales ranged from r = 0.24 to 0.72 (r = 0.27-0.72) for the self-report version (proxy-report version). Coefficients below r = 0.5 were observed for the KIDSCREEN-52 dimensions Financial Resources and Being Bullied only. Cronbach alpha was 0.82 (0.78), test-retest reliability was ICC = 0.70 (0.67) for the self- (proxy-)report version. Correlations between other children self-completed HRQoL questionnaires and KIDSCREEN-10 ranged from r = 0.43 to r = 0.63 for the KIDSCREEN children self-report and r = 0.22-0.40 for the KIDSCREEN parent proxy report. Known group differences in HRQoL between physically/mentally healthy and ill children were observed in the KIDSCREEN-10 self and proxy scores. Associations with self-reported psychosomatic complaints were r = -0.52 (-0.36) for the KIDSCREEN-10 self-report (proxy-report). Statistically significant differences in KIDSCREEN-10 self and proxy scores were found by socioeconomic status, age, and gender. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the KIDSCREEN-10 provides a valid measure of a general HRQoL factor in children and adolescents, but the instrument does not represent well most of the single dimensions of the original KIDSCREEN-52. Test-retest reliability was slightly below a priori defined thresholds.

The disrupted in schizophrenia 1 (DISC1) gene is a candidate susceptibility factor for schizophrenia, but its mechanistic role in the disorder is unknown. Here we report that the gene encoding phosphodiesterase 4B (PDE4B) is disrupted by a balanced translocation in a subject diagnosed with schizophrenia and a relative with chronic psychiatric illness. The PDEs inactivate adenosine 3',5'-monophosphate (cAMP), a second messenger implicated in learning, memory, and mood. We show that DISC1 interacts with the UCR2 domain of PDE4B and that elevation of cellular cAMP leads to dissociation of PDE4B from DISC1 and an increase in PDE4B activity. We propose a mechanistic model whereby DISC1 sequesters PDE4B in resting cells and releases it in an activated state in response to elevated cAMP.

Finding robust brain substrates of mood disorders is an important target for research. The degree to which major depression (MDD) and bipolar disorder (BD) are associated with common and/or distinct patterns of volumetric changes is nevertheless unclear. Furthermore, the extant literature is heterogeneous with respect to the nature of these changes. We report a meta-analysis of voxel-based morphometry (VBM) studies in MDD and BD. We identified studies published up to January 2015 that compared grey matter in MDD (50 data sets including 4101 individuals) and BD (36 data sets including 2407 individuals) using whole-brain VBM. We used statistical maps from the studies included where available and reported peak coordinates otherwise. Group comparisons and conjunction analyses identified regions in which the disorders showed common and distinct patterns of volumetric alteration. Both disorders were associated with lower grey-matter volume relative to healthy individuals in a number of areas. Conjunction analysis showed smaller volumes in both disorders in clusters in the dorsomedial and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, including the anterior cingulate cortex and bilateral insula. Group comparisons indicated that findings of smaller grey-matter volumes relative to controls in the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and left hippocampus, along with cerebellar, temporal and parietal regions were more substantial in major depression. These results suggest that MDD and BD are characterised by both common and distinct patterns of grey-matter volume changes. This combination of differences and similarities has the potential to inform the development of diagnostic biomarkers for these conditions.

These updated guidelines from the British Association for Psychopharmacology replace the original version published in 2011. They address the scope and targets of pharmacological treatment for schizophrenia. A consensus meeting was held in 2017, involving experts in schizophrenia and its treatment. They were asked to review key areas and consider the strength of the evidence on the risk-benefit balance of pharmacological interventions and the clinical implications, with an emphasis on meta-analyses, systematic reviews and randomised controlled trials where available, plus updates on current clinical practice. The guidelines cover the pharmacological management and treatment of schizophrenia across the various stages of the illness, including first-episode, relapse prevention, and illness that has proved refractory to standard treatment. It is hoped that the practice recommendations presented will support clinical decision making for practitioners, serve as a source of information for patients and carers, and inform quality improvement.

Background & aimsThe incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing internationally, particularly in nations with historically low rates. Previous reports of the epidemiology of pediatric-onset IBD identified a paucity of data. We systematically reviewed the global trends in incidence and prevalence of IBD diagnosed in individuals <21 years old over the first 2 decades of the 21st century.MethodsWe systematically reviewed studies indexed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Airiti Library, and SciELO from January 2010 to February 2020 to identify population-based studies reporting the incidence and/or prevalence of IBD, Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, and/or IBD-unclassified. Data from studies published before 2000 were derived from a previously published systematic review. We described the geographic distribution and trends in children of all ages and limiting to very early onset (VEO) IBD.ResultsA total of 131 studies from 48 countries were included. The incidence and prevalence of pediatric-onset IBD is highest in Northern Europe and North America and lowest in Southern Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Among studies evaluating trends over time, most (31 of 37, 84%) studies reported significant increases in incidence and all (7 of 7) reported significant increases in prevalence. Data on the incidence and prevalence of VEO-IBD are limited to countries with historically high rates of IBD. Time trends in the incidence of VEO-IBD were visually heterogeneous.ConclusionsRates of pediatric-onset IBD continue to rise around the world and data are emerging from regions where it was not previously reported; however, there remains a paucity of data on VEO-IBD and on pediatric IBD from developing and recently developed countries. The incidence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is increasing internationally, particularly in nations with historically low rates. Previous reports of the epidemiology of pediatric-onset IBD identified a paucity of data. We systematically reviewed the global trends in incidence and prevalence of IBD diagnosed in individuals <21 years old over the first 2 decades of the 21st century. We systematically reviewed studies indexed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Airiti Library, and SciELO from January 2010 to February 2020 to identify population-based studies reporting the incidence and/or prevalence of IBD, Crohn’s disease, ulcerative colitis, and/or IBD-unclassified. Data from studies published before 2000 were derived from a previously published systematic review. We described the geographic distribution and trends in children of all ages and limiting to very early onset (VEO) IBD. A total of 131 studies from 48 countries were included. The incidence and prevalence of pediatric-onset IBD is highest in Northern Europe and North America and lowest in Southern Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. Among studies evaluating trends over time, most (31 of 37, 84%) studies reported significant increases in incidence and all (7 of 7) reported significant increases in prevalence. Data on the incidence and prevalence of VEO-IBD are limited to countries with historically high rates of IBD. Time trends in the incidence of VEO-IBD were visually heterogeneous. Rates of pediatric-onset IBD continue to rise around the world and data are emerging from regions where it was not previously reported; however, there remains a paucity of data on VEO-IBD and on pediatric IBD from developing and recently developed countries.

We report an extensive study which compares cognitive therapy, antidepressant drugs and a combination of these two, in depressed patients seen either in general practice or an out-patient department. One-hundred and forty patients were screened for primary major depression and 64 patients completed the trial. All were rated on seven measures of mood, including independent observer-rated and self-rated depression and scales of anxiety and irritability. Patients were randomly assigned to cognitive therapy, antidepressants or a combination of the two. The antidepressant drug group did less well in both hospital and general practice and combination treatment was superior to drug treatment in both hospital and general practice. In general practice, cognitive therapy was superior to drug treatment. The presence of endogenous features did not affect response to treatment. The results are discussed in terms of Beck's cognitive theory of depression and factors of presumed causal importance of depression in general practice.

BACKGROUND: Structural brain abnormalities have been described in autism but studies are often small and contradictory. We aimed to identify which brain regions can reliably be regarded as different in autism compared to healthy controls. METHOD: A systematic search was conducted for magnetic resonance imaging studies of regional brain size in autism. Data were extracted and combined using random effects meta-analysis. The modifying effects of age and IQ were investigated using meta-regression. RESULTS: The total brain, cerebral hemispheres, cerebellum and caudate nucleus were increased in volume, whereas the corpus callosum area was reduced. There was evidence for a modifying effect of age and IQ on the cerebellar vermal lobules VI-VII and for age on the amygdala. CONCLUSIONS: Autism may result from abnormalities in specific brain regions and a global lack of integration due to brain enlargement. Inconsistencies in the literature partly relate to differences in the age and IQ of study populations. Some regions may show abnormal growth trajectories.

BACKGROUND: DNA methylation changes with age. Chronological age predictors built from DNA methylation are termed 'epigenetic clocks'. The deviation of predicted age from the actual age ('age acceleration residual', AAR) has been reported to be associated with death. However, it is currently unclear how a better prediction of chronological age affects such association. METHODS: In this study, we build multiple predictors based on training DNA methylation samples selected from 13,661 samples (13,402 from blood and 259 from saliva). We use the Lothian Birth Cohorts of 1921 (LBC1921) and 1936 (LBC1936) to examine whether the association between AAR (from these predictors) and death is affected by (1) improving prediction accuracy of an age predictor as its training sample size increases (from 335 to 12,710) and (2) additionally correcting for confounders (i.e., cellular compositions). In addition, we investigated the performance of our predictor in non-blood tissues. RESULTS: We found that in principle, a near-perfect age predictor could be developed when the training sample size is sufficiently large. The association between AAR and mortality attenuates as prediction accuracy increases. AAR from our best predictor (based on Elastic Net, https://github.com/qzhang314/DNAm-based-age-predictor ) exhibits no association with mortality in both LBC1921 (hazard ratio = 1.08, 95% CI 0.91-1.27) and LBC1936 (hazard ratio = 1.00, 95% CI 0.79-1.28). Predictors based on small sample size are prone to confounding by cellular compositions relative to those from large sample size. We observed comparable performance of our predictor in non-blood tissues with a multi-tissue-based predictor. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates that the epigenetic clock can be improved by increasing the training sample size and that its association with mortality attenuates with increased prediction of chronological age.