Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences

Statistical errors are common in scientific literature and about 50% of the published articles have at least one error. The assumption of normality needs to be checked for many statistical procedures, namely parametric tests, because their validity depends on it. The aim of this commentary is to overview checking for normality in statistical analysis using SPSS.

BACKGROUND: Many causes of vision impairment can be prevented or treated. With an ageing global population, the demands for eye health services are increasing. We estimated the prevalence and relative contribution of avoidable causes of blindness and vision impairment globally from 1990 to 2020. We aimed to compare the results with the World Health Assembly Global Action Plan (WHA GAP) target of a 25% global reduction from 2010 to 2019 in avoidable vision impairment, defined as cataract and undercorrected refractive error. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys of eye disease from January, 1980, to October, 2018. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; presenting visual acuity from <6/18 to 3/60) and blindness (<3/60 or less than 10° visual field around central fixation) by cause, age, region, and year. Because of data sparsity at younger ages, our analysis focused on adults aged 50 years and older. FINDINGS: Global crude prevalence of avoidable vision impairment and blindness in adults aged 50 years and older did not change between 2010 and 2019 (percentage change -0·2% [95% UI -1·5 to 1·0]; 2019 prevalence 9·58 cases per 1000 people [95% IU 8·51 to 10·8], 2010 prevalence 96·0 cases per 1000 people [86·0 to 107·0]). Age-standardised prevalence of avoidable blindness decreased by -15·4% [-16·8 to -14·3], while avoidable MSVI showed no change (0·5% [-0·8 to 1·6]). However, the number of cases increased for both avoidable blindness (10·8% [8·9 to 12·4]) and MSVI (31·5% [30·0 to 33·1]). The leading global causes of blindness in those aged 50 years and older in 2020 were cataract (15·2 million cases [9% IU 12·7-18·0]), followed by glaucoma (3·6 million cases [2·8-4·4]), undercorrected refractive error (2·3 million cases [1·8-2·8]), age-related macular degeneration (1·8 million cases [1·3-2·4]), and diabetic retinopathy (0·86 million cases [0·59-1·23]). Leading causes of MSVI were undercorrected refractive error (86·1 million cases [74·2-101·0]) and cataract (78·8 million cases [67·2-91·4]). INTERPRETATION: Results suggest eye care services contributed to the observed reduction of age-standardised rates of avoidable blindness but not of MSVI, and that the target in an ageing global population was not reached. FUNDING: Brien Holden Vision Institute, Fondation Théa, The Fred Hollows Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lions Clubs International Foundation, Sightsavers International, and University of Heidelberg.

<h3>Importance</h3> Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. <h3>Objective</h3> To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. <h3>Evidence Review</h3> We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. <h3>Findings</h3> In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). <h3>Conclusions and Relevance</h3> The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

The genetics underlying severe COVID-19 The immune system is complex and involves many genes, including those that encode cytokines known as interferons (IFNs). Individuals that lack specific IFNs can be more susceptible to infectious diseases. Furthermore, the autoantibody system dampens IFN response to prevent damage from pathogen-induced inflammation. Two studies now examine the likelihood that genetics affects the risk of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) through components of this system (see the Perspective by Beck and Aksentijevich). Q. Zhang et al. used a candidate gene approach and identified patients with severe COVID-19 who have mutations in genes involved in the regulation of type I and III IFN immunity. They found enrichment of these genes in patients and conclude that genetics may determine the clinical course of the infection. Bastard et al. identified individuals with high titers of neutralizing autoantibodies against type I IFN-α2 and IFN-ω in about 10% of patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia. These autoantibodies were not found either in infected people who were asymptomatic or had milder phenotype or in healthy individuals. Together, these studies identify a means by which individuals at highest risk of life-threatening COVID-19 can be identified. Science , this issue p. eabd4570 , p. eabd4585 ; see also p. 404

IMPORTANCE: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE: To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW: The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS: In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Oxidative stress plays an essential role in the pathogenesis of chronic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, neurodegenerative diseases, and cancer. Long term exposure to increased levels of pro-oxidant factors can cause structural defects at a mitochondrial DNA level, as well as functional alteration of several enzymes and cellular structures leading to aberrations in gene expression. The modern lifestyle associated with processed food, exposure to a wide range of chemicals and lack of exercise plays an important role in oxidative stress induction. However, the use of medicinal plants with antioxidant properties has been exploited for their ability to treat or prevent several human pathologies in which oxidative stress seems to be one of the causes. In this review we discuss the diseases in which oxidative stress is one of the triggers and the plant-derived antioxidant compounds with their mechanisms of antioxidant defenses that can help in the prevention of these diseases. Finally, both the beneficial and detrimental effects of antioxidant molecules that are used to reduce oxidative stress in several human conditions are discussed.

INTRODUCTION: The importance of content validity in the instrument psychometric and its relevance with reliability, have made it an essential step in the instrument development. This article attempts to give an overview of the content validity process and to explain the complexity of this process by introducing an example. METHODS: We carried out a methodological study conducted to examine the content validity of the patient-centered communication instrument through a two-step process (development and judgment). At the first step, domain determination, sampling (item generation) and instrument formation and at the second step, content validity ratio, content validity index and modified kappa statistic was performed. Suggestions of expert panel and item impact scores are used to examine the instrument face validity. RESULTS: From a set of 188 items, content validity process identified seven dimensions includes trust building (eight items), informational support (seven items), emotional support (five items), problem solving (seven items), patient activation (10 items), intimacy/friendship (six items) and spirituality strengthening (14 items). Content validity study revealed that this instrument enjoys an appropriate level of content validity. The overall content validity index of the instrument using universal agreement approach was low; however, it can be advocated with respect to the high number of content experts that makes consensus difficult and high value of the S-CVI with the average approach, which was equal to 0.93. CONCLUSION: This article illustrates acceptable quantities indices for content validity a new instrument and outlines them during design and psychometrics of patient-centered communication measuring instrument.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) is a multinational collaborative research study with >10,000 collaborators around the world. GBD generates a time series of summary measures of health, including prevalence, cause-specific mortality (CSMR), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to provide a comprehensive view of health burden for a wide range of stakeholders including clinicians, public and private health systems, ministries of health, and other policymakers. These estimates are produced for 371 causes of death and 88 risk factors according to mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive hierarchies of health conditions and risks. The study is led by a principal investigator and governed by a study protocol, with oversight from a Scientific Council, and an Independent Advisory Committee.1 GBD is performed in compliance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).2 GBD uses de-identified data, and the waiver of informed consent was reviewed and approved by the University of Washington Institutional Review Board (study number 9060). This almanac presents results for 18 cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and the CVD burden attributed to 15 risk factors (including an aggregate grouping of dietary risks) by GBD region. A summary of methods follows. Additional information can be found online at https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/cvd-1990-2022, including:

OBJECTIVE: To describe the relative validity and reliability of the FFQ used for assessing nutrient intakes of participants in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). DESIGN: A total of 132 subjects (sixty-one males and seventy-one females) were included in the study. Dietary data were collected monthly by means of twelve 24 h dietary recalls (24hDR). Subjects completed two, 168-item semi-quantitative FFQ. Blood and urine samples were taken every season for measurement of plasma biomarkers and urinary N and K. RESULTS: Mean age and BMI of the participants were 35.5 (sd 16.8) years and 25.5 (sd 5.2) kg/m2, respectively. The mean energy-adjusted and deattenuated correlation coefficients for overall nutrient intake between the 24hDR and FFQ2 were 0.44 and 0.37 in <or=35-year-olds and >35-year-olds, respectively, and for individual nutrients ranged from 0.24 to 0.71 in men (mean r = 0.53) and from 0.11 to 0.60 in women (mean r = 0.39). The mean energy-adjusted reliability coefficients varied from 0.48 in <or=35-year-olds to 0.65 in >35-year-olds, and ranged from 0.41 to 0.79 in men (mean r = 0.59) and from 0.39 to 0.74 in women (mean r = 0.60). The FFQ2 and 24hDR produced exact agreement rates ranging between 39.6 % and 68.3 % in men and between 39.6 % and 54.1 % in women. The ranges of questionnaire validity coefficients, with the sample correlation between the questionnaires and biochemical marker as the lower limit and the estimate obtained by the method of triads as the upper limit, were 0.21-0.56 (protein) and 0.37-0.61 (K). CONCLUSIONS: The FFQ developed for the TLGS has reasonable relative validity and reliability for nutrient intakes in Tehranian adults.

BACKGROUND: To contribute to the WHO initiative, VISION 2020: The Right to Sight, an assessment of global vision impairment in 2020 and temporal change is needed. We aimed to extensively update estimates of global vision loss burden, presenting estimates for 2020, temporal change over three decades between 1990-2020, and forecasts for 2050. METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys of eye disease from January, 1980, to October, 2018. Only studies with samples representative of the population and with clearly defined visual acuity testing protocols were included. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate 2020 prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of mild vision impairment (presenting visual acuity ≥6/18 and <6/12), moderate and severe vision impairment (<6/18 to 3/60), and blindness (<3/60 or less than 10° visual field around central fixation); and vision impairment from uncorrected presbyopia (presenting near vision <N6 or <N8 at 40 cm where best-corrected distance visual acuity is ≥6/12). We forecast estimates of vision loss up to 2050. FINDINGS: In 2020, an estimated 43·3 million (95% UI 37·6-48·4) people were blind, of whom 23·9 million (55%; 20·8-26·8) were estimated to be female. We estimated 295 million (267-325) people to have moderate and severe vision impairment, of whom 163 million (55%; 147-179) were female; 258 million (233-285) to have mild vision impairment, of whom 142 million (55%; 128-157) were female; and 510 million (371-667) to have visual impairment from uncorrected presbyopia, of whom 280 million (55%; 205-365) were female. Globally, between 1990 and 2020, among adults aged 50 years or older, age-standardised prevalence of blindness decreased by 28·5% (-29·4 to -27·7) and prevalence of mild vision impairment decreased slightly (-0·3%, -0·8 to -0·2), whereas prevalence of moderate and severe vision impairment increased slightly (2·5%, 1·9 to 3·2; insufficient data were available to calculate this statistic for vision impairment from uncorrected presbyopia). In this period, the number of people who were blind increased by 50·6% (47·8 to 53·4) and the number with moderate and severe vision impairment increased by 91·7% (87·6 to 95·8). By 2050, we predict 61·0 million (52·9 to 69·3) people will be blind, 474 million (428 to 518) will have moderate and severe vision impairment, 360 million (322 to 400) will have mild vision impairment, and 866 million (629 to 1150) will have uncorrected presbyopia. INTERPRETATION: Age-adjusted prevalence of blindness has reduced over the past three decades, yet due to population growth, progress is not keeping pace with needs. We face enormous challenges in avoiding vision impairment as the global population grows and ages. FUNDING: Brien Holden Vision Institute, Fondation Thea, Fred Hollows Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lions Clubs International Foundation, Sightsavers International, and University of Heidelberg.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a serious threat to global public health, but obtaining representative data on AMR for healthy human populations is difficult. Here, we use metagenomic analysis of untreated sewage to characterize the bacterial resistome from 79 sites in 60 countries. We find systematic differences in abundance and diversity of AMR genes between Europe/North-America/Oceania and Africa/Asia/South-America. Antimicrobial use data and bacterial taxonomy only explains a minor part of the AMR variation that we observe. We find no evidence for cross-selection between antimicrobial classes, or for effect of air travel between sites. However, AMR gene abundance strongly correlates with socio-economic, health and environmental factors, which we use to predict AMR gene abundances in all countries in the world. Our findings suggest that global AMR gene diversity and abundance vary by region, and that improving sanitation and health could potentially limit the global burden of AMR. We propose metagenomic analysis of sewage as an ethically acceptable and economically feasible approach for continuous global surveillance and prediction of AMR.

Resveratrol (3,5,4'-trihydroxy-trans-stilbene) belongs to polyphenols' stilbenoids group, possessing two phenol rings linked to each other by an ethylene bridge. This natural polyphenol has been detected in more than 70 plant species, especially in grapes' skin and seeds, and was found in discrete amounts in red wines and various human foods. It is a phytoalexin that acts against pathogens, including bacteria and fungi. As a natural food ingredient, numerous studies have demonstrated that resveratrol possesses a very high antioxidant potential. Resveratrol also exhibit antitumor activity, and is considered a potential candidate for prevention and treatment of several types of cancer. Indeed, resveratrol anticancer properties have been confirmed by many in vitro and in vivo studies, which shows that resveratrol is able to inhibit all carcinogenesis stages (e.g., initiation, promotion and progression). Even more, other bioactive effects, namely as anti-inflammatory, anticarcinogenic, cardioprotective, vasorelaxant, phytoestrogenic and neuroprotective have also been reported. Nonetheless, resveratrol application is still being a major challenge for pharmaceutical industry, due to its poor solubility and bioavailability, as well as adverse effects. In this sense, this review summarized current data on resveratrol pharmacological effects.

L. (turmeric) rhizome, has been used for centuries for culinary and food coloring purposes, and as an ingredient for various medicinal preparations, widely used in Ayurveda and Chinese medicine. In recent decades, their biological activities have been extensively studied. Thus, this review aims to offer an in-depth discussion of curcumin applications for food and biotechnological industries, and on health promotion and disease prevention, with particular emphasis on its antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, neuroprotective, anticancer, hepatoprotective, and cardioprotective effects. Bioavailability, bioefficacy and safety features, side effects, and quality parameters of curcumin are also addressed. Finally, curcumin's multidimensional applications, food attractiveness optimization, agro-industrial procedures to offset its instability and low bioavailability, health concerns, and upcoming strategies for clinical application are also covered.

Most human cells utilize glucose as the primary substrate, cellular uptake requiring insulin. Insulin signaling is therefore critical for these tissues. However, decrease in insulin sensitivity due to the disruption of various molecular pathways causes insulin resistance (IR). IR underpins many metabolic disorders such as type 2 diabetes and metabolic syndrome, impairments in insulin signaling disrupting entry of glucose into the adipocytes, and skeletal muscle cells. Although the exact underlying cause of IR has not been fully elucidated, a number of major mechanisms, including oxidative stress, inflammation, insulin receptor mutations, endoplasmic reticulum stress, and mitochondrial dysfunction have been suggested. In this review, we consider the role these cellular mechanisms play in the development of IR.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the validity and reproducibility of food groups in the semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) developed for the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS). METHODS: To evaluate the reproducibility of food groups included in the FFQ, 132 subjects (61 men and 71 women) aged 20 years or older twice completed a 168-item FFQ (FFQ1, FFQ2), with a 14-month interval between FFQ1 and FFQ2. Over the 1-year interval, 12 dietary recalls (DRs) were collected (1 each month) to assess the validity of the FFQ. Seventeen food groups were derived from the FFQ based on methods described in previous studies. Age-adjusted and deattenuated Spearman correlation coefficients were used to assess the validity of the FFQ. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age and body mass index of subjects were 35.5 (16.8) years and 25.5 (5.2) kg/m(2), respectively. Validity correlation coefficients ranged from 0.03 (liquid oil) to 0.77 (simple sugars) in men (median, 0.44), and from 0.12 (snacks) to 0.79 (simple sugars) in women (median, 0.37). The energy-adjusted intraclass correlation coefficient, which reflects the reproducibility of the FFQ, was 0.51 in men and was highest for tea and coffee (0.91); in women it was 0.59 and was highest for simple sugars (0.74). The highest percentage of complete agreement and disagreement was observed for snacks and desserts (60.6%) and potatoes and dairy products (12.8%), respectively, in men, and tea and coffee (62.9%) and legumes (15.7%) in women. CONCLUSIONS: The FFQ that was designed for the TLGS was found to be reliable and valid for assessing the intake of several food groups.

Optimum sample size is an essential component of any research. The main purpose of the sample size calculation is to determine the number of samples needed to detect significant changes in clinical parameters, treatment effects or associations after data gathering. It is not uncommon for studies to be underpowered and thereby fail to detect the existing treatment effects due to inadequate sample size. In this paper, we explain briefly the basic principles of sample size calculations in medical studies.

Essential oils are complex mixtures of hydrocarbons and their oxygenated derivatives arising from two different isoprenoid pathways. Essential oils are produced by glandular trichomes and other secretory structures, specialized secretory tissues mainly diffused onto the surface of plant organs, particularly flowers and leaves, thus exerting a pivotal ecological role in plant. In addition, essential oils have been used, since ancient times, in many different traditional healing systems all over the world, because of their biological activities. Many preclinical studies have documented antimicrobial, antioxidant, anti-inflammatory and anticancer activities of essential oils in a number of cell and animal models, also elucidating their mechanism of action and pharmacological targets, though the paucity of in human studies limits the potential of essential oils as effective and safe phytotherapeutic agents. More well-designed clinical trials are needed in order to ascertain the real efficacy and safety of these plant products.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is responsible for the largest pandemic since the 1918 influenza A virus subtype H1N1 influenza outbreak. The symptoms presently recognized by the World Health Organization are cough, fever, tiredness, and difficulty breathing. Patient-reported smell and taste loss has been associated with COVID-19 infection, yet no empirical olfactory testing on a cohort of COVID-19 patients has been performed. METHODS: The University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT), a well-validated 40-odorant test, was administered to 60 confirmed COVID-19 inpatients and 60 age- and sex-matched controls to assess the magnitude and frequency of their olfactory dysfunction. A mixed effects analysis of variance determined whether meaningful differences in test scores existed between the 2 groups and if the test scores were differentially influenced by sex. RESULTS: Fifty-nine (98%) of the 60 patients exhibited some smell dysfunction (mean [95% CI] UPSIT score: 20.98 [19.47, 22.48]; controls: 34.10 [33.31, 34.88]; p < 0.0001). Thirty-five of the 60 patients (58%) were either anosmic (15/60; 25%) or severely microsmic (20/60; 33%); 16 exhibited moderate microsmia (16/60; 27%), 8 mild microsmia (8/60; 13%), and 1 normosmia (1/60; 2%). Deficits were evident for all 40 UPSIT odorants. No meaningful relationships between the test scores and sex, disease severity, or comorbidities were found. CONCLUSION: Quantitative smell testing demonstrates that decreased smell function, but not always anosmia, is a major marker for SARS-CoV-2 infection and suggests the possibility that smell testing may help, in some cases, to identify COVID-19 patients in need of early treatment or quarantine.

OBJECTIVE: To report the global, regional, and national burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and its attributable risk factors between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex, and sociodemographic index. DESIGN: Systematic analysis. DATA SOURCE: Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Data on the prevalence, deaths, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) of COPD, and its attributable risk factors, were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 project for 204 countries and territories, between 1990 and 2019. The counts and rates per 100 000 population, along with 95% uncertainty intervals, were presented for each estimate. RESULTS: In 2019, 212.3 million prevalent cases of COPD were reported globally, with COPD accounting for 3.3 million deaths and 74.4 million DALYs. The global age standardised point prevalence, death, and DALY rates for COPD were 2638.2 (95% uncertainty intervals 2492.2 to 2796.1), 42.5 (37.6 to 46.3), and 926.1 (848.8 to 997.7) per 100 000 population, which were 8.7%, 41.7%, and 39.8% lower than in 1990, respectively. In 2019, Denmark (4299.5), Myanmar (3963.7), and Belgium (3927.7) had the highest age standardised point prevalence of COPD. Egypt (62.0%), Georgia (54.9%), and Nicaragua (51.6%) showed the largest increases in age standardised point prevalence across the study period. In 2019, Nepal (182.5) and Japan (7.4) had the highest and lowest age standardised death rates per 100 000, respectively, and Nepal (3318.4) and Barbados (177.7) had the highest and lowest age standardised DALY rates per 100 000, respectively. In men, the global DALY rate of COPD increased up to age 85-89 years and then decreased with advancing age, whereas for women the rate increased up to the oldest age group (≥95 years). Regionally, an overall reversed V shaped association was found between sociodemographic index and the age standardised DALY rate of COPD. Factors contributing most to the DALYs rates for COPD were smoking (46.0%), pollution from ambient particulate matter (20.7%), and occupational exposure to particulate matter, gases, and fumes (15.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the decreasing burden of COPD, this disease remains a major public health problem, especially in countries with a low sociodemographic index. Preventive programmes should focus on smoking cessation, improving air quality, and reducing occupational exposures to further reduce the burden of COPD.

Abstract Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3–6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017—and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions—was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing—and in some countries reversal—of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.