Special Design Bureau for Automation of Marine Research

The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH >5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH >3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH >1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website ( http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/ ), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.

Istanbul is a mega city with various coastal utilities located on the northern coast of the Sea of Marmara. At Yenikapı, there are critical vulnerable coastal utilities, structures, and active metropolitan life. Fishery ports, commercial ports, small craft harbors, passenger terminals of intercity maritime transportation, waterfront commercial and/or recreational structures with residential/commercial areas and public utility areas are some examples of coastal utilization that are vulnerable to marine disasters. Therefore, the tsunami risk in the Yenikapı region is an important issue for Istanbul. In this study, a new methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment for areas susceptible to tsunami is proposed, in which the Yenikapı region is chosen as a case study. Available datasets from the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and Turkish Navy are used as inputs for high-resolution GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) evaluation of tsunami risk in Yenikapı. Bathymetry and topography database is used for high-resolution tsunami numerical modeling where the tsunami hazard, in terms of coastal inundation, is deterministically computed using the NAMI DANCE numerical code, considering earthquake worst case scenarios. In order to define the tsunami human vulnerability of the region, two different aspects, vulnerability at location and evacuation resilience maps were created using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method of MCDA. A vulnerability at location map is composed of metropolitan use, geology, elevation, and distance from shoreline layers, whereas an evacuation resilience map is formed by slope, distance within flat areas, distance to buildings, and distance to road networks layers. The tsunami risk map is then computed by the proposed new relationship which uses flow depth maps, vulnerability at location maps, and evacuation resilience maps.

In this paper, we extend the numerical study of Maderich et al. [“Interaction of a large amplitude interfacial solitary wave of depression with a bottom step,” Phys. Fluids 22, 076602 (2010)10.1063/1.3455984] on the interaction of an interfacial solitary wave with a bottom step, considering (i) the energy loss of solitary waves of both polarities interacting with a bottom step and (ii) features of the transformation of a large-amplitude internal solitary waves at the step. We show that the dependence of energy loss on the step height is not monotonic, but has different maximum positions for different incident wave polarities. The energy loss does not exceed 50% of the energy of an incident wave. The results of our numerical modeling are compared with some recent results from laboratory tank modeling.

Abstract Meteotsunamis are long waves generated by displacement of a water body due to atmospheric pressure disturbances that have similar spatial and temporal characteristics to landslide tsunamis. NAMI DANCE that solves the nonlinear shallow water equations is a widely used numerical model to simulate tsunami waves generated by seismic origin. Several validation studies showed that it is highly capable of representing the generation, propagation and nearshore amplification processes of tsunami waves, including inundation at complex topography and basin resonance. The new module of NAMI DANCE that uses the atmospheric pressure and wind forcing as the other inputs to simulate meteotsunami events is developed. In this paper, the analytical solution for the generation of ocean waves due to the propagating atmospheric pressure disturbance is obtained. The new version of the code called NAMI DANCE SUITE is validated by comparing its results with those from analytical solutions on the flat bathymetry. It is also shown that the governing equations for long wave generation by atmospheric pressure disturbances in narrow bays and channels can be written similar to the 1D case studied for tsunami generation and how it is integrated into the numerical model. The analytical solution of the linear shallow water model is defined, and results are compared with numerical solutions. A rectangular shaped flat bathymetry is used as the test domain to model the generation and propagation of ocean waves and the development of Proudman resonance due to moving atmospheric pressure disturbances. The simulation results with different ratios of pressure speed to ocean wave speed (Froude numbers) considering sub-critical, critical and super-critical conditions are presented. Fairly well agreements between analytical solutions and numerical solutions are obtained. Additionally, basins with triangular (lateral) and stepwise shelf (longitudinal) cross sections on different slopes are tested. The amplitudes of generated waves at different time steps in each simulation are presented with discussions considering the channel characteristics. These simulations present the capability of NAMI DANCE SUITE to model the effects of bathymetric conditions such as shelf slope and local bathymetry on wave amplification due to moving atmospheric pressure disturbances.

Abstract The dramatic decline in the once superabundant Yellow‐breasted Bunting Emberiza aureola , a widely distributed Eurasian songbird, triggered worldwide media interest. Five years after the initial publication, we set out to give an update on the status of this critically endangered species, the conservation actions that followed, and the lessons that can be learned from this exceptional case for the conservation of migratory land birds in Asia and beyond. While there are signs of possible population recovery in the Yellow‐breasted Bunting, other migratory songbird species were recently observed to be trapped in huge numbers, which could lead to further declines. We argue that the Yellow‐breasted Bunting can be used as a flagship species to promote the conservation of East Asian land bird migrants.

The echelle spectrometer TIMM-2 is the instrument developed for the unsuccessful Russian mission Phobos-Grunt. The instrument was dedicated to solar occultation studies of the Martian atmosphere by measuring the amount of methane, by sensitive measuring of other minor constituents, and by profiling the D/H ratio and the aerosol structure. The spectral range of the instrument is 2300-4100 nm, the spectral resolving power λ/Δλ exceeds 25,000, and the field of view is 1.5×21 arc min. The spectra are measured in narrow spectral intervals, corresponding to discreet diffraction orders. One measurement cycle includes several spectral intervals. To study the vertical profiles of aerosol, the instrument incorporates four photometers in the UV to near-IR spectral range. The mass of the instrument is 2800 g, and its power consumption is 12 W. One complete flight model remains available after the Phobos-Grunt launch. We discuss the science objectives of the occultation experiment for the case of Mars, the implementation of the instrument, and the results of ground calibrations.

Chum salmon populations in the Russian Far East have a complex multi-level genetic structure. A total of 53 samples (2446 fish) were grouped into five major regional clusters: the southern Kurils, eastern Sakhalin, southwestern Sakhalin, the Amur River, and a northern cluster. The northern cluster consists of chum salmon populations from a vast geographical region, including Chukotka, Kamchatka, and the continental coast of the Sea of Okhotsk. However, the degree of its genetic differentiation is low, 1.9%. In contrast, the southern population cluster exhibits much higher variation; for example, differentiation between chum salmon groups within Sakhalin Island reaches 4.6%, and the differentiation between Iturup Island and Sakhalin Island chum salmon is 7.7%. This suggests that southern populations of Asian chum salmon have a more ancient evolutionary history than northern populations. In contrast to the available data, our study indicates a great deviation of southwestern Sakhalin populations from other Sakhalin chum salmon. The Russian Far East chum salmon are genetically diverse and show statistically significant differentiation even within small geographic localities. This can be used to assign samples of unknown origins to definite local populations.

The KLYPVE space experiment has been proposed to study the energy spectrum, composition, and arrival direction of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (UHECR) by detecting from satellites the atmosphere fluorescence and scattered Cherenkov light produced by EAS, initiated by UHECR particles. The TUS setup is a prototype KLYPVE instrument. The aim of the TUS experiment is to detect dozens of UHECR events in the energy region of the GZK cutoff, to measure the light background, to test the atmosphere control methods, and to study stability of the optical materials, PMTs, and other instrumental parts in space environment.

Turkey is highly prone to earthquakes because of active fault zones in the region. The Marmara region located at the western extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) is one of the most tectonically active zones in Turkey. Numerous catastrophic events such as earthquakes or earthquake/landslide-induced tsunamis have occurred in the Marmara Sea basin. According to studies on the past tsunami records, the Marmara coasts have been hit by 35 different tsunami events in the last 2000 years. The recent occurrences of catastrophic tsunamis in the world’s oceans have also raised awareness about tsunamis that might take place around the Marmara coasts. Similarly, comprehensive studies on tsunamis, such as preparation of tsunami databases, tsunami hazard analysis and assessments, risk evaluations for the potential tsunami-prone regions, and establishing warning systems have accelerated. However, a complete tsunami inundation analysis in high resolution will provide a better understanding of the effects of tsunamis on a specific critical structure located in the Marmara Sea. Ports are one of those critical structures that are susceptible to marine disasters. Resilience of ports and harbors against tsunamis are essential for proper, efficient, and successful rescue operations to reduce loss of life and property. Considering this, high-resolution simulations have been carried out in the Marmara Sea by focusing on Haydarpaşa Port of the megacity Istanbul. In the first stage of simulations, the most critical tsunami sources possibly effective for Haydarpaşa Port were inputted, and the computed tsunami parameters at the port were compared to determine the most critical tsunami scenario. In the second stage of simulations, the nested domains from 90 m gird size to 10 m grid size (in the port region) were used, and the most critical tsunami scenario was modeled. In the third stage of simulations, the topography of the port and its regions were used in the two nested domains in 3-m and 1-m resolutions and the water elevations computed from the previous simulations were inputted from the border of the large domain. A tsunami numerical code, NAMI DANCE, was used in the simulations. The tsunami parameters in the highest resolution were computed in and around the port. The effect of the data resolution on the computed results has been presented. The performance of the port structures and possible effects of tsunami on port operations have been discussed. Since the harbor protection structures have not been designed to withstand tsunamis, the breakwaters’ stability becomes one of the major concerns for less agitation and inundation under tsunami in Haydarpaşa Port for resilience. The flow depth, momentum fluxes, and current pattern are the other concerns that cause unexpected circulations and uncontrolled movements of objects on land and vessels in the sea.

Abstract Modeling of tsunamis in glacial fjords prompts us to evaluate applicability of the cross‐sectionally averaged nonlinear shallow water equations to model propagation and runup of long waves in asymmetrical bays and also in fjords with two heads. We utilize the Tuck‐Hwang transformation, initially introduced for the plane beaches and currently generalized for bays with arbitrary cross section, to transform the nonlinear governing equations into a linear equation. The solution of the linearized equation describing the runup at the shore line is computed by taking into account the incident wave at the toe of the last sloping segment. We verify our predictions against direct numerical simulation of the 2‐D shallow water equations and show that our solution is valid both for bays with an asymmetric L‐shaped cross section, and for fjords with two heads—bays with a W‐shaped cross section.

Results of experiments on the initiation of ignition in high-energy materials with a broad range of physicochemical parameters by high-current electron beams of nanosecond duration are presented. It is shown that ignition of these materials can be initiated even at relatively low energy parameters of the electron beam, provided that the ignition temperature does not exceed 200°C.

Tsunamis in shallow water zones lead to sea water level rise and fall, strong currents, forces (drag, impact, uplift, etc.), morphological changes (erosion, deposition), dynamic water pressure, as well as resonant oscillations. As a result, ground materials under the tsunami motion move, and scour/erosion/deposition patterns can be observed in the region. Ports and harbors as enclosed basins are the main examples of coastal structures that usually encounter natural hazards with small or huge damaging scales. Morphological changes are one of the important phenomena in the basins under short and long wave attack. Tsunamis as long waves lead to sedimentation in the basins, and therefore, in this study, the relation to the current pattern is noticed to determine sedimentation modes. Accordingly, we present a methodology based on the computation of the instantaneous Rouse number to investigate the tsunami motion and to calculate the respective sedimentation. This study aims to investigate the effects of the incident wave period on an L-type harbor sedimentation with a flat bathymetry using a numerical tool, NAMI DANCE, which solves non-linear shallow water equations. The results showed that the corner points on the bending part of the basin are always the critical points where water surface elevation and current velocity amplify in the exterior and interior corners, respectively.

The paper investigates the estimation errors given by the angular velocity of rotary tables that are based on the angle sensor, the angular velocity sensor, and the tangential as well as centripetal acceleration sensors. Rotary tables are used in the production and research of angular rate sensors, units and systems based on them. The aim is to investigate the possibilities of increasing the accuracy of the rotary table angular velocity estimation due to the aggregation of information about angular velocity sensors of different physical nature. To achieve these goals the objectives of the study of the error probability density distributions for sensors of different physical nature are stated. The article describes the design of the rotary table bench, including the angle, angular velocity as well as tangential and centripetal acceleration sensors. Expressions for estimators of the angular velocity basing on the readings of each sensor are given. It is shown that the least square estimation of the angular velocity is not efficient. Instead, the two step estimation procedure is offered. The first stage consists in the maximum likelihood estimation of the angular velocity by the four mentioned meters. As the result, the total weighted least square estimator of the obtained maximum likelihood estimates is calculated at the second stage. The results of computer simulation comparing the estimation accuracy of the conventional least square and proposed weighted maximum likelihood methods, which confirm the theoretical conclusions, are given.

Forecasting of tsunami wave heights at the Russian coast of the Black Sea is discussed. Prognostic numerical calculations of tsunamis were carried out for the tsunami sources uniformly distributed in the Black Sea basin (a total of 55 events). Their results are compared with the results of numerical modeling of the historical events (in 1939 and 1966) and the data of not numerous measurements. A preliminary forecast is made on this basis for the tsunami wave heights along the Russian coast of the Black Sea.

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengidentifikasi dan menganalisis proses berpikir, mengetahui penyebab terjadinya kesalahan, dan mengetahui alternatif pemecahan yang baik untuk memperbiki kesalahan dalam menyelesaikan soal-soal operasi hitung campuran bilangan bulat di kelas IV SDN 1 Katobengke Kota Baubau. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode kualitatif. Analisis data dalam penelitian ini didahului proses reduksi data disusul dengan penyajian data dan diakhiri dengan penarikan kesimpulan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa: (1) proses berpikir siswa yaitu pemilihan urutan pengerjaan soal operasi penjumlahan, pengurangan, perkalian, dan pembagian; (2) faktor-faktor yang menyebabkan terjadinya kesalahan yaitu tingkatan operasi hitung, mengoperasikan, dan langkah-langkah; dan (3) alternatif pemecahan yang dinilai baik yaitu kesalahan tingkatan operasi hitung adalah memberikan pemahaman bahwa tingkatan dalam proses menyelesaikan soal operasi hitung campuran bilangan bulat, kesalahan mengoperasikan adalah menggunakan konsep himpunan yang anggotanya berbentuk manik-manik berupa bulatan setengah lingkaran, dan kesalahan langkah-langkah adalah memberikan pemahaman kepada siswa langkah-langkah pengerjaan soal yang baik. Kata kunci: Analisis Kesalahan, Operasi Hitung Campuran, Bilangan Bulat.

Instrumental data on the tsunami registration on Sakhalin and Hokkaido islands are presented. The numerical simulation of the tsunami propagation in the Tatar Strait was performed. The results of the calculations are in satisfactory agreement with the observed data.

Predicting the arrival time of natural hazards such as tsunamis is of very high importance to the coastal community. One of the most effective techniques to predict tsunami propagation and arrival time is the utilization of numerical solutions. Numerical approaches of Nonlinear Shallow Water Equations (NLSWEs) and nonlinear Boussinesq-Type Equations (BTEs) are two of the most common numerical techniques for tsunami modeling and evaluation. BTEs use implicit schemes to achieve more accurate results compromising computational time, while NLSWEs are sometimes preferred due to their computational efficiency. Nonetheless, the term accounting for physical dispersion is not inherited in NLSWEs, calling for their consideration and evaluation. In the present study, the tsunami numerical model NAMI DANCE, which utilizes NLSWEs, is applied to previously reported problems in the literature using different grid sizes to investigate dispersion effects. Following certain conditions for grid size, time step and water depth, the simulation results show a fairly good agreement with the available models showing the capability of NAMI DANCE to capture small physical dispersion. It is confirmed that the current model is an acceptable alternative for BTEs when small dispersion effects are considered.

The authors of this article describe the results of GPR tests for indicating the layers of snow strata and determining their properties, allowing for forecasting of avalanche hazards. The GPR tests were carried out during the winter season 2021/2022. Trenches were dug in the snow, in the wall of which long metal rods (markers) were installed, which are the reflectors for the GPR and make it possible to distinguish the boundaries of layers on the radarogram. As a result of conducting GPR sounding of the snow cover, radarograms were obtained, on which the layered structure of snow can be read. Using the GeoScan32 software, dielectric permittivity values were obtained for 19 layers of snow strata with different properties. Correlations were obtained between dielectric permittivity and temperature, crystal diameter, snow layer density, and snow layer water storage. The resulting dielectric permittivity relationships reveal the strongest correlations between dielectric permittivity and density, with a higher correlation coefficient for dry snow than for wet snow. The values of dielectric permittivity obtained from GPR were also compared with calculated values derived from a number of empirical correlations with snow density.

On January 15, 2022, a catastrophic eruption of Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai volcano in the Tonga archipelago occurred, accompanied by a strong explosive wave felt at very great distances from the volcano, as well as causing tsunami waves on nearby islands and sea level fluctuations at a distance from the volcano. The results of analysis of the perturbations caused by this eruption recorded on the Russian coast of the Sea of Japan are presented.

Mediterranean, the center of civilizations since antiquity, experienced numerous earthquakes and triggered tsunamis. Historical information and distribution of fault zones, volcanoes and other probable tsunamigenic sea bottom deformations show that, there are source areas which may be considered as responsible for tsunamis in Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean, Marmara and Black sea region. These events affected the coastal structures that led to the loss of the economic power and social life of civilizations since antiquity. One of the probable examples of the earthquake or tsunami effects on the Fethiye town may be the eruption of Thera (also referred to as the Thera eruption or Santorini eruption). Another example of the earthquake or tsunami effects on the historical structures may be the destruction of lighthouse of Patara (Lykian City) harbor at the South of Turkey. The numerical modeling is one of the efficient tools for understanding the tsunami behaviors in the past. In this study, the historical data of earthquakes and tsunamis are evaluated together with the instrumental data of seismicity in order to select the tsunami source for modeling efforts. In modeling application, the most effective tsunami source among the others in Eastern Mediterranean is selected and simulated in order to better understand its possible effects on Fethiye town and the Patara (Lykian City). In this study, the simulation results are presented and dicussed for these selected regions.